Author Topic: Dow  (Read 28462 times)

canuguzzi

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Re: Dow
« Reply #60 on: August 25, 2015, 03:57:38 PM »
I dare to say that the common commentary that so long as you are in for the long haul these things work themselves out doesn't take into consideration that many have already done the long haul and they could be into extended overtime. I especially like the asset allocation advice for the 90 year olds. I can't help but think WTF?

Offline Chuck in Indiana

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Re: Dow
« Reply #61 on: August 25, 2015, 06:10:47 PM »
Your reputation as a Wise Old Man and as an Ace Stock Market Analyst will be either made or broken forever this week .....  :bow:

Lannis

Ok, today was a reversal down. The downside target will be shown tomorrow.  If I was heavily into the market.. I wouldn't be.. :smiley:
« Last Edit: August 25, 2015, 06:33:52 PM by Chuck in Indiana »
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Offline Stormtruck2

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Re: Dow
« Reply #62 on: August 25, 2015, 07:59:44 PM »
Well tis doesn't bode well. I called for a 300+ point open and day. Opened as I thought, but late day the rally collapsed into a 204.91 point loss.  Volume was off 21.6 % of normal so that shows this wasn't a complete collapse. The failed rally is a very negative sign for the market though. Even though the volume was light, it still plunges further into a correction. The Dow futures are also down for tomorrow, versus a 180-250 up for today as of last night and this morning preopening. So tomorrow looks like it may be another down day, but with traders in the Hamptons on vacation this time of year, volume will remain low, unless we have a complete collapse. September and October are going to be rough months, buckle yer seat belts kids, and grab yer arse.
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Offline LowRyter

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Re: Dow
« Reply #63 on: August 25, 2015, 08:05:27 PM »
red ink
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Re: Dow
« Reply #63 on: August 25, 2015, 08:05:27 PM »

Offline jcctx

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Re: Dow
« Reply #64 on: August 26, 2015, 07:44:38 AM »
All I can say is "OUCH"; but what's a few 100K among friends???

Offline Randown

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Re: Dow
« Reply #65 on: August 26, 2015, 08:33:22 AM »
This trend could take weeks or months to play out or it could be over with tomorrow there is no telling.

Some things are telling though...

- We went into this with a high CAPE ratio (Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings by Nobel Prize recipient Dr Robert Shiller). It's still higher than the mean.

- Equity markets addicted like a junkie to low rates/ unconventional monetary policy to the point that bad news has been good news for a long time.

- An economy running on >$4T of borrowed money on the balance sheet of the FR, a self bailout from the '08 crisis & pushing the envelope of monetary policy. IOW it's not organic, it's been sort-of fake all along, doesn't mean it couldn't work out as planned but it's been a slough from '08.

- Problems deep enough to hamper the wealth effect in major economies, JPN, EU, CNA.

- Pricing collapse of deflation fighting commodities.

If you're INvested hopefully you constructed your port for just such an event as they do eventually come around. If you DIDN'T & your port is woefully unbalanced towards high beta equities you COULD be better off to re-balance early in a correction depends on some things that are knowable & some things that are not - your call.


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Offline clubman

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Re: Dow
« Reply #66 on: August 26, 2015, 08:36:18 AM »
This market may present some buying opportunities even bigger than 2008. Back then I sat on the sidelines and watched G.E. slump to $2 and bounce back to $20+ in 1 1/2 yrs. time because I was fully invested. Sure wish I had some cash right now.
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Offline Randown

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Re: Dow
« Reply #67 on: August 26, 2015, 09:12:18 AM »
GE like others had liquidity problems, the financial system including GE would've followed Bear Sterns off a cliff if not for extraordinary intervention. IOW GE, banks, investment banks, equities, the economy ALL are where they are today b/c of massive bailouts & unconventional policy.

I feel better about buying things that have real earnings in a real economy in a real market where everyone & their brother isn't being herded if not coerced into & that isn't being juiced by artificially low rates & $4T of bailouts...I'm funny like that.
  :tongue: :wink:

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Offline Lannis

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Re: Dow
« Reply #68 on: August 26, 2015, 09:24:33 AM »

The stock market is directly connected to Federal Spending. It cannot grow unless the Federal Government prints and distributes funny money thru spending. 
 

Is that principle something new?    The stock market is operating the same way now as it has during LONG periods when Federal spending was a small fraction of what it is now .....
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oldbike54

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Re: Dow
« Reply #69 on: August 26, 2015, 10:02:54 AM »
 Didn't Ray Charles say something re the stock market ? Something like "It'll do what it'll do" ?

 Really , does anyone really believe they can predict any of this , or like Pliny the Elder or Nostradamus , are the experts employing the scatter gun method hoping at least a few pellets hit the target ?

  Dusty

Offline MGPilot

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Re: Dow
« Reply #70 on: August 26, 2015, 10:07:29 AM »
Don't have a large portfolio, but it didn't drop nearly as much as I expected given the gloom & doom on TV.

Bought some stocks that were kicked in the face, but I thought were good companies and would do well in the long run.  Although they may go lower in the coming months, hedged my bet by buying, maybe, 60-70% of what I might. So, if it goes up, will just keep what I have. If it goes lower, will add some.

Not trying to retire tomorrow, so a market correction is an issue for day-traders or someone who's trying to retire right now.

The odd thing about market reporting....
 - typically, for us commoners....we should be investing for the long term in good companies, so daily market craziness doesn't matter
 - by the time you hear about an issue (up or down) the real pro's have already reacted and all you'll do is buy high/sell low.

But sometimes conditions can last long enough to make a buy/sell decision worthwhile.

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Orange Guzzi

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Re: Dow
« Reply #71 on: August 26, 2015, 10:10:01 AM »
Is that principle something new?    The stock market is operating the same way now as it has during LONG periods when Federal spending was a small fraction of what it is now .....

You are right, look at the growth rate of the stock market then as related to Federal spending.

As the dollar is devalued with excessive dumping of currency, the  value of a stock certificate is inflated.  You are buying the same "thing" at an inflated price because the "dollars" have been devalued.  The Federal Reserve is trying to maintain a 2-1/2% inflation rate.  On the rare occasion someone buys a single stock that increases in value quickly, generally the stock market grows at the same rate as inflation.  It just a matter of which side you are on when you decide to sell.  As some one called it "dollar cost averaging". In the end most people end up with more dollars, but deflated in value. 

The organization making a massive amount of profit in the money business is the banking industry.  They are getting money from consumer savings accounts and the Federal Reserve at less than 1/2% and then loaning it out for between 3-1/2% to 36%.  A massive return on their investment. 

Offline Lannis

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Re: Dow
« Reply #72 on: August 26, 2015, 10:26:37 AM »
Didn't Ray Charles say something re the stock market ? Something like "It'll do what it'll do" ?

 Really , does anyone really believe they can predict any of this , or like Pliny the Elder or Nostradamus , are the experts employing the scatter gun method hoping at least a few pellets hit the target ?

  Dusty

The way the stock market moves is made up of the sum of the "moves" of millions of people.

No one can predict what an individual person might do, but you CAN predict with some accuracy what a GROUP (or "mob") of people might do.   

The stock market is just one place to invest one's money.   Anyone should have a 'diversified' plan as to how to invest for the future, because short-term, nobody can predict the future with any certainty.

Anyone, not just JP Morgan or Warren Buffett, but ANYONE who invested carefully, and long-term, in the stock market since about 1920 will have made a LOT of money over the long term.    Some people don't understand it and rail against it, but it does have people-based rules that it follows and if you live with those, and don't fight them or moan about them, you can make money along with it ....

Lannis
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Offline Chuck in Indiana

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Re: Dow
« Reply #73 on: August 26, 2015, 10:45:15 AM »
Quote
but it does have people-based rules that it follows

All markets seem to follow the same technical trends. The old saying in the farmer's commodities market is, "Bears make money, Bulls make money, Hogs get slaughtered.  :smiley:
Trying to pick a top or bottom of a market is being a hog. You *can* pick trends, though. As Lannis said.. people's psychology doesn't change.
I called my stock guy a couple of weeks ago and said the market is looking toppy, how about limiting some exposure? Haven't even looked to see what the market is doing today.. don't really care. We'll see what it looks like at the close today. It *should* be telling.
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Offline ITSec

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Re: Dow
« Reply #74 on: August 26, 2015, 01:20:23 PM »
Is that principle something new?    The stock market is operating the same way now as it has during LONG periods when Federal spending was a small fraction of what it is now .....

Actually, it's operating a whole lot more rationally than it did when federal spending was practically non-existent - take a look at the history of trading from the 1820s to 1900 or so. That was insane, with a market crash, depression or recession roughly every seven years!
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Offline blackcat

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Re: Dow
« Reply #75 on: August 26, 2015, 01:41:56 PM »
The way the stock market moves is made up of the sum of the "moves" of millions of people.



Along with the moves of computers/algorithms which has its own problems.

"Investors woke up Monday to see wild price swings and extraordinarily market volatility. More than 1,000 points evaporated from the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index plunged 5.3 percent in the first four minutes after the opening bell, before quickly recovering about half of what was lost. More than 2 billion shares traded hands in the first half-hour.

Trading volume was so high and moved so quickly that it led many to ponder whether electronic high-frequency trading played a role. But experts say reforms meant to prevent algorithms from causing volatility contributed to Monday morning's unusual trading patterns. The high-speed trades had a profound impact on exchange-traded funds (ETFs), an increasingly popular way for investors to hedge their bets against other investments."

http://www.ibtimes.com/high-frequency-trading-circuit-breaker-remedy-aimed-avoiding-flash-crash-debacles-2068140
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Offline zedXmick

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Re: Dow
« Reply #76 on: August 26, 2015, 02:58:48 PM »
My advisor called me this morning to "reassure me" that  my account was doing ok,and that what we had moved into cash a couple of months ago is letting my account "ride out this storm" and not to panic.  I told her I haven't even checked my account since the last time we talked. She said that was a good thing and not to worry about it as we are in it for the long haul.  I only asked her if it was still in my comfort range...she said yes it was and I said I'll sleep better tonight.   :thumb: Moral of the story :  it wasn't as bad as I thought it would be. Back to thinking about  :bike-037:
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Offline blackcat

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Re: Dow
« Reply #77 on: August 26, 2015, 03:32:21 PM »
"The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, a broad measure of the United States market, closed up about 3.9 percent to 1,940.51. The much-narrower Dow Jones industrial average gained almost 4 percent, or 619 points, to end at 16,285.51."
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Offline Chuck in Indiana

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Re: Dow
« Reply #78 on: August 26, 2015, 03:52:04 PM »
"The Standard & Poor�s 500-stock index, a broad measure of the United States market, closed up about 3.9 percent to 1,940.51. The much-narrower Dow Jones industrial average gained almost 4 percent, or 619 points, to end at 16,285.51."

A good sign, but don't bet the farm yet..  :smiley:
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Offline blackcat

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Re: Dow
« Reply #79 on: August 26, 2015, 04:08:53 PM »
A good sign, but don't bet the farm yet..  :smiley:

True, I bet there will be some profit takers tomorrow but better up than down.
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Offline Stormtruck2

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Re: Dow
« Reply #80 on: August 26, 2015, 05:03:58 PM »
The VIX  is very high, having jumped substantially in the past two weeks. Volitility is also very high.  Falling oil prices may calm the water pointing to lower energy prices in the near future, enabling fuel for future growth. Time to stay the course and ride the tempest out.
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Offline Lannis

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Re: Dow
« Reply #81 on: August 26, 2015, 05:15:52 PM »
Along with the moves of computers/algorithms which has its own problems.



That's true, and it's something new.   

And the computer algorithms that "control" stock buying and selling, and which occasionally freak out when an untested condition occurs, are failing for the same reasons as the algorithms that will supposedly "safely" control "self-driving cars" .... which is why I bet the way I do on those ....

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Offline hooah54

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Re: Dow
« Reply #82 on: August 26, 2015, 06:25:27 PM »
Met with my finacial guru today and he reassured me that there will be dips but nothing to jump out of the window about.
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Offline Chuck in Indiana

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Re: Dow
« Reply #83 on: August 26, 2015, 06:39:17 PM »
Met with my finacial guru today and he reassured me that there will be dips but nothing to jump out of the window about.

As if he knows.. :smiley: :smiley:
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Offline hooah54

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Re: Dow
« Reply #84 on: August 26, 2015, 06:41:00 PM »
go change your depends Chuck
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Offline LowRyter

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Re: Dow
« Reply #85 on: August 26, 2015, 06:45:04 PM »
The tech guys will appreciate that volume was double.  Hopefully, we'll get another high volume up day this week to confirm the move.  We haven't heard from any short sellers and option guys here.  Most of us are just hanging for dear life.

BTW- great story Orange Guzi, that's the American Dream:  hard work and smarts.  Good for you.
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Offline Chuck in Indiana

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Re: Dow
« Reply #86 on: August 26, 2015, 07:25:48 PM »
Chuck in (Elwood) Indiana/sometimes SoCal
 
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Offline blackcat

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Re: Dow
« Reply #87 on: August 27, 2015, 12:58:17 PM »
Well, at 2 o'clock east coast time the market is up 351pts.  :cool:
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canuguzzi

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Re: Dow
« Reply #88 on: August 27, 2015, 01:31:02 PM »
Met with my finacial guru today and he reassured me that there will be dips but nothing to jump out of the window about.

Suzi Orman?

Yes, I know CFMs are worn but that doesn't always tell the whole story.

Offline ITSec

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Re: Dow
« Reply #89 on: August 27, 2015, 02:03:00 PM »
There was a nice, unfortunately short, article in the new Economist re the China market. Full version available to subscribers...
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