Harley Davidson stock prices fall

[canuck750]

From the CBC web site:

Harley-Davidson Inc. on Tuesday trimmed guidance for shipments of its motorcycles in 2019 after worldwide sales in the second quarter slumped, hurt by higher tariff costs as well as weak demand in the United States.
Operating margin in the motorcycles segment, or how much profit the company makes per dollar of sales after accounting for production costs, was also revised down.
The revised outlook led to a four per cent fall in the company's stock price in premarket trade.

The Milwaukee-based company now expects to ship about 212,000 to 217,000 bikes in 2019. This compares with the company's original estimate of 217,000 to 222,000 bikes for the year.
Operating margin as a per cent of motorcycle revenue is projected to be about six to seven per cent this year, lower than the eight to nine per cent estimated earlier.

Harley shifts some production to Europe as $2,200 per bike tariff kicks in
Harley's challenges in the United States, which accounts for more than half of the company's sales, are well documented — core customers are growing older and outreach efforts to attract new and young riders have yet to show results.
U.S. retail sales were down eight per cent from a year ago in the second quarter.
In a reflection of the demographic headwind, the heavyweight motorcycle maker's stock price has declined by 46 per cent in the past five years. In comparison, the S&P 500 has gained 50 per cent.

Compounding the company's troubles is U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war. In retaliation for the tariffs the White House placed on imported steel and aluminum, the European Union increased import duties on U.S.-manufactured Harley bikes to 31 per cent from 6 per cent last June.
Harley dives into Asian market with smaller bikes to fuel growth
Similarly, China's tariffs on the bikes exported from the U.S. have increased to 55 per cent from 30 per cent as a result of the trade war between the world's two biggest economies.

The incremental tariffs cost the company $34.4 million US in the June quarter, contributing to a 12.5 per cent plunge in retail sales in Europe.
Overall, worldwide sales in the quarter were down 8.4 per cent from a year ago. However, in a sliver lining for the American company, sales in emerging market were up 7.6 per cent year on year.
To mitigate the EU tariffs, Harley said it got the approval from the trading bloc to ship bikes from its Thailand facility.

In the latest quarter, Harley's profits declined to $1.23 per share from $1.45 per share a year ago. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv, on average, expected the earnings to come in at $1.20 per share.

[RinkRat II]

  Yep steady decline since 2014, long before tariffs and trade wars and what was their plan in the meantime? Anyone? ...... crickets. At least thet're still paying a dividend.

       Paul B

[screamday]

  Yep steady decline since 2014, long before tariffs and trade wars and what was their plan in the meantime? Anyone? ...... crickets. At least they're still paying a dividend.

       Paul B

I think that was the plan. 

[Tusayan]

The “Harley shifts some production to Europe” reporting seems to an ongoing myth created by inaccurate reporting and not discouraged by HD... which as I understand it is actually discussing moving some production to India and/or China to among other things avoid EU import tariffs which are specifically applied to imports from the US.

[LowRyter]

Harley already has production plants in Brazil, India, Australia and Thailand.  And many components delivered internationally.

I'd guess that when Harley catches cold, other US sellers catch pneumonia. 

[sib]

...The Milwaukee-based company now expects to ship about 212,000 to 217,000 bikes in 2019...

That's still a lot of bikes, especially by Moto Guzzi standards.

[John Ulrich]

That's still a lot of bikes, especially by Moto Guzzi standards.

     The catagory is aging out..... look at are rallys.

[Vince in Milwaukee]

I currently own about 2 shares of HD.  Doesn't pay to get rid of them; what will that get me, one nice dinner out with me and the girlfriend?  I'm hanging on to them more as a novelty than anything else.  Maybe that new electric bike will be the ticket!   

[LowRyter]

    The catagory is aging out..... look at are rallys.

yeah my bro-in-law used to take his Harleys to lots of rallies and said that most of them have ceased.   I wonder if Sturgis gets all that it used to?  I know that Daytona seems a shell of what it was but I don't know if it's affected the attendance. 

[Ncdan]

    The catagory is aging out..... look at are rallys.

Not sure I agree John. I went to the spring rally in Myrtle Beach this year, I usually go every other year, and I didn’t see any reduction from the past 30+ years I’ve been attending the rally’s. As usual I was the only Moto Guzzi there and this time 3 folks knew what it was:)

[Tom]

With the aging....how will that affect the wet t-shirt contest???  I dread the thought. 

[twowheeladdict]

    The catagory is aging out..... look at are rallys.

The category?  Cruiser sales still far surpass all other categories combined if you dont count 3rd world small bikes sales.  Eventually everyone gets older. I guess if there are less prople getting older not only motorcycle sales will suffer, but so will corvette sales, motorhome sales, etc.

[Kev m]

Funny thing about aging.... Today's youth will be tomorrow's grumpy old men.

And a lot of guys who didn't get to ride in their youth (or right more expensive brands) will be able to later.

Either way it will hardly effect the grumpy old curmudgeons here's.

[TN Mark]

From the CBC web site:

The Milwaukee-based company now expects to ship about 212,000 to 217,000 bikes in 2019. This compares with the company's original estimate of 217,000 to 222,000 bikes for the year.


In a reflection of the demographic headwind, the heavyweight motorcycle maker's stock price has declined by 46 per cent in the past five years. In comparison, the S&P 500 has gained 50 per cent.

Selling 5000 fewer bikes for any motorcycle manufacturer is a very big deal in today's market. As has been posted, if H-D catches a cold, other manufacturers could catch pneumonia. H-D seems to have a lot of newer and smaller displacement models coming out which should bode well for them going forward. How many V85's does Moto Guzzi need to sell in North America for that bike to be called a success?


H-D losing 46% of their stock price compared to a 50% gain in the S&P 500 in the last 5 years is shocking. It surprises me they've seemingly been so slow to address such obvious market trends. At least they finally seem to have a better focus.


I ride with mostly H-D owners. Most who continue to be stuck like glue to the bar and shield brand. They're simply shocked my Victory hasn't been rebuilt once already and isn't needing to be rebuilt again now that it's coming up on 69K miles. I tell them that at 90K to 100K miles I may add a big bore kit (106" to 117") to up the Hp and Torque numbers another 20 points. 

Every brand, not just H-D, has to figure out what it takes to get entry riders on their bikes by figuring out what they actually want. With Piaggio focusing the Moto Guzzi brand on 750's and 850's maybe they'll be able to grow the brand. But certainly not without a substantially more effective dealer network.

A couple months back it was rumored on this forum that the 1400 line is either going to be trimmed way back or even discontinued altogether. Has there been any further information on the status of the 1400 line of Guzzis?

[LowRyter]

With the aging....how will that affect the wet t-shirt contest???  I dread the thought. 

my interest in this subject is sagging............ ....

[Ncdan]

my interest in this subject is sagging............ ....

Kind of like a sock with a baseball inside of it😂😂😂😂

[twowheeladdict]

Selling 5000 fewer bikes for any motorcycle manufacturer is a very big deal in today's market. As has been posted, if H-D catches a cold, other manufacturers could catch pneumonia. H-D seems to have a lot of newer and smaller displacement models coming out which should bode well for them going forward. How many V85's does Moto Guzzi need to sell in North America for that bike to be called a success?


H-D losing 46% of their stock price compared to a 50% gain in the S&P 500 in the last 5 years is shocking. It surprises me they've seemingly been so slow to address such obvious market trends. At least they finally seem to have a better focus.


I ride with mostly H-D owners. Most who continue to be stuck like glue to the bar and shield brand. They're simply shocked my Victory hasn't been rebuilt once already and isn't needing to be rebuilt again now that it's coming up on 69K miles. I tell them that at 90K to 100K miles I may add a big bore kit (106" to 117") to up the Hp and Torque numbers another 20 points. 

Every brand, not just H-D, has to figure out what it takes to get entry riders on their bikes by figuring out what they actually want. With Piaggio focusing the Moto Guzzi brand on 750's and 850's maybe they'll be able to grow the brand. But certainly not without a substantially more effective dealer network.

A couple months back it was rumored on this forum that the 1400 line is either going to be trimmed way back or even discontinued altogether. Has there been any further information on the status of the 1400 line of Guzzis?

Everyone is so stuck in the past when it comes to motorcycles in general.  I know people with over 100,000 miles on all kinds of bikes, yet when people come on the forums and ask about the high mileage (insert any brand here), they are asking about bikes about to hit 20,000 miles.  There is definitely a societal misconception about modern motorcycles.

[Murray]

The category?  Cruiser sales still far surpass all other categories combined if you dont count 3rd world small bikes sales. 

You keep telling yourself that it might even be true in the USA from local observations I'd say no, yes cruisers are a large market.Aalthough I wonder what would happen if you cut out the fleet sale to various law enforcement agencies, actually not much I think the last time the local police department ran the experiment was 30 years ago, there are still stories floating around of how they won't ever be repeating it.

[Kev m]

You keep telling yourself that it might even be true in the USA from local observations I'd say no, yes cruisers are a large market.Aalthough I wonder what would happen if you cut out the fleet sale to various law enforcement agencies, actually not much I think the last time the local police department ran the experiment was 30 years ago, there are still stories floating around of how they won't ever be repeating it.

Unless something changed it's a statistical fact in the US just based on the fact that Harley owns 50+% of the US street bike market 650cc and up and has for a decade or two. So if you count Harley's "cruiser" sales (I often argue the semantics of it but for this discussion it is fine) and then add any "cruiser" sales from:

Indian, Triumph, Guzzi, JAPanInc. and RE, then you are well beyond the 50% mark probably into the 60-70% mark. Granted the 650cc thing blurs it slightly especially with the growing popularity of smaller and smaller bikes, but still.

I don't think it holds true worldwide, but clearly is so in the US.

[Rough Edge racing]

I ride with mostly H-D owners. Most who continue to be stuck like glue to the bar and shield brand. They're simply shocked my Victory hasn't been rebuilt once already and isn't needing to be rebuilt again now that it's coming up on 69K miles. I tell them that at 90K to 100K miles I may add a big bore kit (106" to 117") to up the Hp and Torque numbers another 20 points. 

 I hear Harley riders say their Big Twin Evo engine last 100,000 miles if stock and ridden and maintained with some sanity..I have no idea about the twin cam stuff.

[Kev m]

I hear Harley riders say their Big Twin Evo engine last 100,000 miles if stock and ridden and maintained with some sanity..I have no idea about the twin cam stuff.

Reports are the TCs are even better, especially the hydro tensioners which are lasting 100k without being replaced yet.

As for EVOs, my buddy finished his third IBR this year (43rd place again) on his 250k mile EVO Sporty. Though full disclosure he had to split the cases at 230k to replace a bearing and screwed the job up so he transplanted a donor motor into it at that time.

[kballowe]

Dang !

All this talk about Harleys and not a single photograph.

OK, I'll start.

[TowPro]

Last winter (florida) I went into my local HD shop.  being 59 I think I am who they are looking for.  I have been riding since 1972, even owned a Buell Uly.
My first mistake was riding my KTM 690 onto the lot with bright riding gear on, all the sales people walked away.
I walked around the showroom, some old lady (my age) smiled from behind the parts counter but nobody would even help me in bike sales.
I really did not see anything I liked.  I finally made someone talk to me, I inquired that I have seen a Harley street bike that looks like the flat track bike, but it was a 1200.
they took me to this bike with car tires on it and said "here it is".  next they took me to this 750 that reminded me of the Buell Blast.
I kept asking about this XR1200 that I have read about but they did not know what I was talking about.  (later I found out it was way back in 2010 this bike was out)

anyway, I stumbled across a V7III Special, and having owned and enjoyed a V65 some years ago I fell in love.

I have also been to my first bike rally this spring, yes the audience is getting older.  I bought a pair of yellow riding glasses and joked "don't tell my wife they are xray vision" he replied "you don't want that around here, some things you just can un-see"

[Kev m]

Last winter (florida) I went into my local HD shop.  being 59 I think I am who they are looking for.  I have been riding since 1972, even owned a Buell Uly.
My first mistake was riding my KTM 690 onto the lot with bright riding gear on, all the sales people walked away.
I walked around the showroom, some old lady (my age) smiled from behind the parts counter but nobody would even help me in bike sales.
I really did not see anything I liked.  I finally made someone talk to me, I inquired that I have seen a Harley street bike that looks like the flat track bike, but it was a 1200.
they took me to this bike with car tires on it and said "here it is".  next they took me to this 750 that reminded me of the Buell Blast.
I kept asking about this XR1200 that I have read about but they did not know what I was talking about.  (later I found out it was way back in 2010 this bike was out)

I've said 100x on here that people generally find what they EXPECT to find.

I've been frequenting HD dealers for decades wearing Aerostich, riding in on Guzzis, BMWs, Ducati's or whatever. Often times sales staff would greet me in the parking lot when I arrived and talk about the bike/brand I was on. Especially with Guzzis.

I have rarely ever seen anything but friendly, courteous staff.

Hell my old HD dealer used to perform state inspections for free. They eventually changed that policy to ON HD only (since they were obviously using it to promote repairs/service). But before making that change they inspected multiple metrics for me. Techs literally argued over who would get to ride my brand new Breva 1100.

But like most I tend to find what I expect.

I'm just an optimist.

[sib]

Funny thing about aging.... Today's youth will be tomorrow's grumpy old men.

And a lot of guys who didn't get to ride in their youth (or right more expensive brands) will be able to later.

Either way it will hardly effect the grumpy old curmudgeons here's.

Some of us have actually aged INTO motorcycling.  I started riding 6 years ago, at 71.

[SemperVee]

 Sold my HD stock years ago when I saw they were running out of Old Fat guys to pander to...
Owning and riding 14 HD's led me to happily owning a Victory Cross Country Tour.

[Lannis]

I've said 100x on here that people generally find what they EXPECT to find.

I........

But like most I tend to find what I expect.

I'm just an optimist.

We've had three different dynasties running Harley dealers in our town since the 1940s.

First one (1940 -1970) was an old crotchety (well, he was old when I first was there in 1969) guy who was decent and would talk to you even if you were a kid on a Yamaha.

Next one (1971 -1981) was a guy who was the worst-case "Biker" type ... all about colors and had a "posse" around him and wouldn't have much to do with "straights".   He ended up in a Federal penitentiary.

Next one (1982 -1984), I actually bought a new Harley from.   A few months later, I paid money in advance for some accessories, and he left town and took the entire shop with him over the weekend.   Never got the accessories or the money back.  A straight-up thief.

The guys now seem to be decent types, will talk to anyone, and actually rooted through their accessory exhaust clamp bins for a clamp that would fit one of my Guzzis; were pleased that they found one to fit.

So it's hard for me to characterize "Harley Shops" any particular way.   I've seen it all, just in one location ...

Lannis

[Gliderjohn]

Don't know about the current ownership, but the last time I stopped in the Wichita area H-D dealer (previous owners) I was on my Norge and no one would give me the time of day. When I went back out to leave there were to techs looking it over however.
GliderJohn

[Motormike]

As a Harley owner, when people start talking about "high-milage" Harley Davidsons, I'm always reminded of the old hammer joke, "You know, a good hammer will last forever.  As long as you replace the head and the handle every once in awhile!"

[Ncdan]

I made some good money in HD in the 90’s. Fortunately I saw the writing on the wall just in time and cashed out.