Author Topic: NGC first time direct investor  (Read 759 times)

Offline GeorgiaGuzzi

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NGC first time direct investor
« on: March 31, 2020, 04:37:56 PM »
So, just to put out some positivity in the midst of what is going on today, Iím finally in a position to directly purchase some stocks during this downturn. I missed out on apple stocks back right before they released the iMac, and the previous recessions I was doing good to keep the wolves away. So, while studiously not looking at my 401k Iíve picked up some stocks I feel are undervalued right now. One Iím hesitating on is Ford. Maybe in a few weeks.

Also, our cruise got canceled for our 3rd anniversary. So weíre taking a trip on the Guzzi (I hope!) in August up to NJ and back on the blue ridge parkway.

We here are doing well and staying positive. Gonna make lemonade like mad!!!!😀

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Re: NGC first time direct investor
« Reply #1 on: March 31, 2020, 04:45:05 PM »
Good luck.  You're gutsier than me to invest right now. 
John L 
When life gets you down remember it's one down and the rest are up.  (1-N-23456)

Online malik

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Re: NGC first time direct investor
« Reply #2 on: March 31, 2020, 05:31:56 PM »
Good on you. If you have a little discretionary, now would be a good time.
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Re: NGC first time direct investor
« Reply #3 on: March 31, 2020, 10:38:27 PM »
CLW..clearwater paper Corp.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2020, 10:42:03 PM by fotoguzzi »
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Re: NGC first time direct investor
« Reply #3 on: March 31, 2020, 10:38:27 PM »

Online John Ulrich

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Re: NGC first time direct investor
« Reply #4 on: March 31, 2020, 10:54:47 PM »
Selling "yesterdays" money makers for writeoffs against gains. Buying the next money makers..which are on sale!  Under the advisement of professionals, of course.
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Re: NGC first time direct investor
« Reply #5 on: April 01, 2020, 05:23:13 AM »
I've got a little spare dough, and my job is 100% secure.. we will not be shutting down or cutting back...

I was thinking of doing this as well when I saw some stocks have dropped 50-75%

Unforch I wouldnt know where to begin! I have a 401k (i didnt even get to pick my own funds) and thats the extent of my investment knowledge.

So I decided to sit on it and invest a little in building out an unfinished guest suite in our basement for AirBnB...  We live in a bustling tourist area and I expect that will come back and continue to ramp up after all this bullshit blows over.
At least Hospitality I know and understand. I guess I am of the mindset that no neophyte newbie investor is really going to make a killing in stocks no matter how bad they are beat up right now. "It's a big club, and you aint in it." -George Carlin
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Offline berniebee

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Re: NGC first time direct investor
« Reply #6 on: April 01, 2020, 07:16:39 AM »
If you are unsure what to buy, get an ETF that tracks the S&P 500. Simple. 

There's no doubt you'll make money buying now- and lot's of it. The question is: when?
If you have 10 years before you start sipping at the 401K, it's a no brainer. Buy , even borrow (Today's rates are ridiculously low) to buy, you are going to be way ahead. Even if you have only five years, I'd say it's 95% certain you'll be ahead.

These "world ending global calamities" keep happening (I remember Bullwinkle the moose saying "This time for sure!" after another failed magic trick.) and panicked investors keep selling low. Just an opportunity to buy. The hardest part is to ignore the financial news once you buy- there's more excitement and waving hands there than in the entertainment section. 




 


Offline chuck peterson

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Re: NGC first time direct investor
« Reply #7 on: April 01, 2020, 07:42:43 AM »
Aero/defense and financial sectors down 30%

CAPE is an amazing Schiller investment vehicle

Free financial advice is worth every penny you paid for it

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Offline Lannis

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Re: NGC first time direct investor
« Reply #8 on: April 01, 2020, 08:02:47 AM »
If you are unsure what to buy, get an ETF that tracks the S&P 500. Simple. 

There's no doubt you'll make money buying now- and lot's of it. The question is: when?
If you have 10 years before you start sipping at the 401K, it's a no brainer. Buy , even borrow (Today's rates are ridiculously low) to buy, you are going to be way ahead. Even if you have only five years, I'd say it's 95% certain you'll be ahead.

These "world ending global calamities" keep happening (I remember Bullwinkle the moose saying "This time for sure!" after another failed magic trick.) and panicked investors keep selling low. Just an opportunity to buy. The hardest part is to ignore the financial news once you buy- there's more excitement and waving hands there than in the entertainment section. 
 

Agree with all that.

For several years back in the early 2000s, I tried my hand at serious short-term investing.   

Since stock prices are driven by human behavior, which hasn't changed in thousands of years in many ways, some things are very predictable.

Back in the 1600s, Japan had a Rice Futures market, in which people traded "puts" and "calls" depending on what way rice prices would go, due to weather, wars, opening of new markets, etc.    A study of the behavior of that market (they kept good records which survive today) show it to behave just like today's stock market does.   And they used many of the same techniques that computer-driven traders and trading programs use today, although done by hand, including "candlestick" analysis, to predict rises or falls in the market.

I found two things:

1) These techniques work.   They're not magic, they're based on human fears and optimism.

2) It's a full time job to do the analyses, do the trades, and make money at it.   You can't dabble at it, you have to be on deck all the time, watching the Asian financial news at 0500, paying $200 a month for a data and analysis service like Qcharts, etc.

And I already had a full-time job.   So I quit the stock gig, and fell back to hobby-buying on what I hope are the low spots, holding long term (years), and selling on the high spots.   

20 years ago I was 60% invested in the stock market.   10 years ago, as I approached retirement, I lowered that to 40%.    Now I'm at 20% - everything else is secure (well, since 1890), low yield income-producers.

Good luck with whatever way you go!

Lannis
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Offline cliffrod

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Re: NGC first time direct investor
« Reply #9 on: April 01, 2020, 08:59:33 AM »
Lannis says some good things. 

Length of investment term is important. 

Understanding tax obligations including capital gains (profit on sale) and how it will impact your "success" is important. Simple general example.  Buy now for $1.00/share.  Sell in the future for $50.00/share.  $49.00 of that profit is taxable as capital gain. That's why a stock that produces dividends may be a better choice, producing a lowered annual taxable obligation. 

To the govt, the value of each share stock is what you pay for it when purchased whether yesterday or 100 yrs ago.   This also matters if you transfer stocks that have done well to children/grandchildren later in life.  You can gift $10k (including stock assessed at current market value) per person per year to lower your taxable obligation for that tax year.  But if that $10k value represents a capital gain over purchase price, the recipient will only be able to realize what's left after taxes based upon that capital gain.   Say you paid $5.00 for that stock when purchased an now its worth $10k.  Whoever owns it at time of sale will owe taxes on $9,995.00 as a capital gain, which will be significant.

Depending upon where the stock is held (by regular broker, issuing entity/corporation or by an electronic trading house in your account) it may be transacted quickly or take a length of time to transfer stock into street name in order to sell.  This can make you miss a good selling opportunity.

Issuing company that holds stock for you may allow buys for free, but may take many days to transfer shares into street name so,they can be liquidated elsewhere.  Electronic (e-trade) companies may allow you to buy and sell registered shares at any time for a nominal flat rate per transaction. In person brokers charge commission per transaction.  An e-trade fee for a single large sale might only $6-$10 vs hundreds or more via a regular broker.  E-trades can also happen quickly. Automatic buy/sell orders, etc. are good things to understand.

An issuing company may have a free program to reinvest dividends automatically, which over the long term (decades) can grow a small investment into a larger holding. This, combined with any stock splits, can grow your holdings.  You can reinvest dividends yourself, with a respective fee per transaction as described above.  Then it makes more sense to accrue dividends into an account and make a single purchase when price is down to limit money spent on fees.

When things are down, it's generally a good time to buy.  just like everything else, you need to understand the basic market.  It's no different than understanding that the WG swap meet prices are probably more typical than many Mecum or BArrett Jackson numbers.    People do make big profits (capital gains) in stocks, but it isn't free money with no strings attached.   I only like to spend/risk money that I can afford to lose.   It's worth consulting with a professional that understands your financial & tax situation.  Those few hundred $$ for guidance from a CPA or CFP is money well invested.

« Last Edit: April 01, 2020, 09:00:41 AM by cliffrod »
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Online RinkRat II

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Re: NGC first time direct investor
« Reply #10 on: April 01, 2020, 09:28:34 AM »

      First things first, do you have an emergency fund  in the amount of 6 to 8 months of expenses?
             All credit cards paid off? Mortgage your only debt?
         If yes then start by finding a certified financial planner that is a feduciary. Have them look at your situation and asses your risk tolerance, get into a S&P fund like Vanguard.  Start doing your homework on stocks that interest you and companies you know Read the annual reports and the guidance from the CEO. High quality stocks that yeild a dividend of at least 4% are your friend. Reinvest the dividends and compound interest will smile on you.  Jim Cramer has books on investing which explain  the good, bad and ugly part of the stock market. Once your comfortable with your new found knowledge pull the trigger and start making money.  Remember your in it for the long haul.  As for Ford, their dividend is not sustainable at these lower prices, patience is key. Do your homework. Good Luck!

      My $.02   
      Paul B :boozing:
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Online pebra

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Re: NGC first time direct investor
« Reply #11 on: April 01, 2020, 09:53:55 AM »
If you have a long term strategy that includes stocks, you should at least consider starting rebalancing.

As for starting investing in the stock market, I would say this is not the right time.
Too much uncertainty and volatility.

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Online cloudbase

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Re: NGC first time direct investor
« Reply #12 on: April 01, 2020, 01:54:04 PM »
Studebaker.  Take it to the bank.

Offline roadventure

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Re: NGC first time direct investor
« Reply #13 on: April 01, 2020, 02:27:34 PM »
So, while studiously not looking at my 401k Iíve picked up some stocks I feel are undervalued right now. One Iím hesitating on is Ford. Maybe in a few weeks.

Ultimately, your choice.  I have been buying FORD when it seemed they took a dip.  I am not disappointed but do wonder just what they are thinking in dropping their car line (except for Mustang).  There is a market for vehicles that are not 6000lb (+), $50,000 (+) pick up trucks.  I get it that they make a huge amount of profit on those vehicles, but when (inevitably) the corporate wide fuel mileage requirements get reinstated they will need to scramble to keep up again. 

I do see efforts at electric vehicles but it seems half-hearted. 
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Offline roadventure

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Re: NGC first time direct investor
« Reply #14 on: April 01, 2020, 02:30:41 PM »
I guess I am of the mindset that no neophyte newbie investor is really going to make a killing in stocks no matter how bad they are beat up right now. "It's a big club, and you aint in it." -George Carlin

True, but if you can make 8% annually and reinvest dividends you can earn pretty well. 
dave
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Offline roadventure

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Re: NGC first time direct investor
« Reply #15 on: April 01, 2020, 02:34:39 PM »
      First things first, do you have an emergency fund  in the amount of 6 to 8 months of expenses?
             All credit cards paid off? Mortgage your only debt?
         If yes then start by finding a certified financial planner that is a feduciary.

      My $.02   
      Paul B :boozing:

Paul,

This should go without saying, but I am so glad to see that you said it.  Destroy all debt first.  THEN and only then, consider investing in stocks.

dave
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Offline elvisboy77

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Re: NGC first time direct investor
« Reply #16 on: April 01, 2020, 02:58:12 PM »
Index funds for the stock market or a sub market are pretty safe with good returns, and are pretty cheap right now.

Any hot stock tip should be avoided.  It is unusual for a person to be successful picking individual stocks, that is pretty risky.

Great time to buy.
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Re: NGC first time direct investor
« Reply #17 on: April 01, 2020, 04:19:35 PM »
There's a lot of uncertainty in the market.  Plenty of volatility.  I am not certain at all it's hit bottom.  I have sold one international stock fund and kept another one and a few other stock funds.   I have a couple of single stocks, one is down 70% in the last month.  I am not impressed with the fundamentals.  Even though my stock related make up is less than 40% of my holdings (or did), I would be more likely to sell on strength rather than buy on weakness. 

If we lived in a normal world, I am believer in stocks that increase dividends over time.  But these times aren't normal and what was good for 30 years fell off a cliff a month ago.  Sure, staples and medical related look good for now but many have already bid them up.

Invest with your eyes wide open but if you expect stocks to regain what's been lost right away or won't fall a lot more, you're smarter than me.
John L 
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Offline GeorgiaGuzzi

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Re: NGC first time direct investor
« Reply #18 on: April 01, 2020, 09:37:33 PM »
Yes, debt is at a minimum. I really donít like to talk about it. Just donít wanna jinx anything! And itís not like Iím investing anything major. I view stock investments like playing poker. Donít use any money you canít afford to lose. Hence why I havenít been able to in the past. Also retirement is still about 23 years away for me. Maybe sooner if we keep debt pretty much banished. But again, I donít wanna jinx anything! 😀

Online John Ulrich

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Re: NGC first time direct investor
« Reply #19 on: April 01, 2020, 11:52:58 PM »
Big thing about our investments is being conservative with beta scores to match.  We donít beat the market every year but in down years we only lose a fraction of the market.  As of today weíre only down 10% and set to rock when the market comes back.
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Harper's Moto Guzzi. Where we still answer the phone, use the highest quality parts, and also do Transmission, rear drive, and carb rebuilds fast. Call us at 816.697.3411 and get your problems resolved.
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