A question for the smart guys MC

[oldbike54]

 OK , so compared to me , everyone here is a smart guy , or girl , no slight intended , so this question is really for everyone .

 Going back to about 1964 , I've been devouring information regarding motorbikes . Back then , a Bonneville , BSA Spitfire , HD Sportster , CSR Matchless , Norton Atlas , etc etc , were all capable of roughly the same level of performance . Low 14 second 1/4 miles , 110 MPH top speeds , 0-60 times in the 5-6 second range . Braking in those days was usually not great , 60 to 0 in 145 ft was really good , and handling was alright , the Brits and Italians seemed a bit better than the the others . Then we hit the Japanese revolution , obvious what happened there , advances in performance came at a relentless pace . Now we have readily available MCs capable of mid 9 second 1/4 miles , 0 to 60 times of 2.6 seconds, 180+ MPH top speeds , braking from 60 to 0 in 120 feet , with no real fade . And handling better than race bikes from 10 years ago , amazing stuff .

 So, here is the question , based on what you think you know , where will we be in 10 years ? Have we plateaued a bit , has the decreasing market for race bike performance in street bikes caused a slowing in increasing performance ? What say you engineers , mechanics , and regular old MC junkies like me ? What , if any , will be the next advance , tires , brakes , suspension ? Hybrids ?

  Dusty

[kirby1923]

Machines will be built in small places like maybe 1500 sq foot shops and designed in cad to the customers requirement's then produced with printers out of plastic/carbon fiber media.

And also ejections seats will become common.

:-)

[oldbike54]

 The Kirbster says "ejection seats" 

 Both good answers guys 

  Dusty

[Triple Jim]

That's not a bad idea.  If you could get it to eject you high enough to get a parachute to open, it would allow you to abort if you're going too fast when a car pulls out in front of you, for example.

[oldbike54]

 Oh PJ , we will get there , eventually 

 As for the ejection seat , it would need a rocket booster to get clear , whooo wheee 

 What about acceleration ? Have we reached a point where even modern electronics can't overcome the wheelie factor ? The new blown Kawasaki isn't as fast as the bad boy beemer to 180 MPH .

  Dusty
 

[Chuck in Indiana]

Ya know.. I was talking with Todd Egan a couple of years ago.. Pete, stay out of this.  he's a **really** fast rider.. and he said, "It's insane.. trying to ride a superbike fast through the chicanes. It's really hard to go through them with your front wheel in the air."
So.
Not that I'm a smart guy, but here's what I think:
We've already gone past what a "normal" human can do. *Maybe Superhuman.* 
Electronic intervention.
I don't want any part of it.

Have we plateaued a bit

Gimme a real motorcycle that I can control. Sort of.  I think we've plateaued a lot.

[kirby1923]

Very light weight Mylar single use parachute incorporated into the riders jacket with crotch straps and a small rocket motor under seat to boost to about 200 to 300 feet with automatic seat separation at 0 G.

Yipee.

[Triple Jim]

What about acceleration ? Have we reached a point where even modern electronics can't overcome the wheelie factor ? The new blown Kawasaki isn't as fast as the bad boy beemer to 180 MPH .

Amazing how important weight is when you're having a drag race, isn't it?

[canuguzzi]

I think it goes to added features, less maintenance with much longer intervals, and I see the modular bike on the horizon.

Get ready for the electric bike. Everything is sort of quiet but I bet within 3 years there are some big announcements. When you have 600-900 pound bikes out there they can put those formable lithium batteries to fill space and get decent range. An e bike that can go 250 miles will sell like hotcakes in city and burn areas.

Many riders already accept plastic covered bikes where seeing the engine is not a concern. 250 mikes is a decent weekend of riding for most and makes for a trouble free commute with maybe a charge at work for top off.

[Gliderjohn]

I think there will be an explosion in electric bikes, especially in urban areas. Second, will classic bikes without the modern safety features get hit hard on insurance costs?
GliderJohn

[Scud]

I think we will see an electric motorcycle with insane acceleration capabilities. Maybe one with two wheel drive that will make it easier to keep the front end down.

Witness the acceleration of the fastest electric cars (Tesla for example). Imagine the motorcycle equivalent of that.

But as for me... I already choose not to buy the fastest things available. I just got a BMW K75s and I'm surprised how many people tell me "Nice bike, but underpowered." Then I think: "C'mon, it's a 750 that'll go 120MPH, and actually accelerates quite briskly (if you have rpms high enough to start with). Underpowered for what?!?!"

Anyway, it seems that some people expect a motorcycle to have peak power at all RPMs - and that sensation is what future electric motors are going to provide.

[Scud]

Second, will classic bikes without the modern safety features get hit hard on insurance costs?
GliderJohn

This is a really interesting question - and the ultimate "safety" feature is when the car drives itself. Think forward to a world where everyone is texting and drinking while driving - because the car is actually doing the driving.  Driverless cars are being tested on the streets now (one of Google's test-fleet cars recently was issued a citation for going too slow).  I would not want a driverless motorcycle, but you have to think that someone will make one someday. 

[oldbike54]

 What about tires ?

  Dusty

[jas67]

That's not a bad idea.  If you could get it to eject you high enough to get a parachute to open, it would allow you to abort if you're going too fast when a car pulls out in front of you, for example.

Overhead wires, trees, etc, could ruin your day.

[kirby1923]

I don't believe that electric motos or cars/truck will ever be practical until we do one of these.


1. develop cold fusion

2. find a method for high temperature  0 resistance conductivity.

[Aaron D.]

How much harder could you accelerate within the bounds of what we call a motorcycle? GP bikes need anti wheelie controls already and could easily put out 300 hp, but all seem to have stabilized at 250-265.

How much faster can you corner when your knees are on the deck and your elbow is getting there too?

This is on a track,we've been beyond what is sensible for street use  for 20 years.

[kirby1923]

Overhead wires, trees, etc, could ruin your day.

I would rather take my chances  that might be a problem than smacking another vehicle or solid object at speed.
Of course this would be an option not a requirement. Military ejections face the same hazards.

:-)

[oldbike54]

 Aaron , back in 1965 folks thought a Dunstall Norton , capable of low 13 second 1/4 mile times was approaching a natural limit .

 Wheelie control already comes on many street bikes .

  Dusty

[Chuck in Indiana]

Aaron , back in 1965 folks thought a Dunstall Norton , capable of low 13 second 1/4 mile times was approaching a natural limit .

Wheelie control already comes on many street bikes .

  Dusty

True.. but why would you want it?  I personally think that we've already gone beyond what the average guy can do technology wise. Maybe Guzzi *is* right on deciding to go retro. <snapping suspenders>

[SmithSwede]

I'm no engineer, but it seems to me the limit is tire technology.   Think we are basically limited to about 1g or so of acceleration, deceleration, and cornering.   

You can exceed that at very high speeds with air effect stuff, but that's not practical at "normal" motorcycle speeds.

So my guess is improvements are made to improve control, economy, emissions, etc., but all within that 1g envelope. 

That's part of the reason super fast bikes no longer appeal to me.  They are ALL pathetic compared to the performance of, say, a fighter jet.  Seems a bit silly to boast that your bike can accelerate to 100 mph at 0.8g, which is better than your buddy's crappy 0.75 g acceleration rate.  Compared to a military jet, that motorcycle bench racing is like privates debating who ranks highest. 

The other reason is control.  The pleasure comes from control.  I can't control a 180 hp bike on twisty roads, at least not to it's potential.   If somebody else can, good for them, but that doesn't change my situation.  I'm not comfortable going more than 95 to 100 mph, so I simply have no need for 180 mph. 

I'll use a gun analogy here.  I can fully control a .38 Special and shoot it well.  The control brings joy, and it's useful.  I can't do that with a .44 Magnum.  And not fun, and not useful to me. Therefore, don't have much use for a .44 Magnum.

But take all this with a grain of salt.  I ride a V7 Stone.  So that's the kind of stuff you'd expect me to say, right?

[ohiorider]

I don't believe that electric motos or cars/truck will ever be practical until we do one of these.


1. develop cold fusion

2. find a method for high temperature  0 resistance conductivity.

Kirby, interesting comment (#1.)  I recently read an article about the progress that's been made in fusion reactors, and unlike the old saying "no matter when the article about fusion was written, we were always 30 years away," sounds like the scientific field is much closer to being able to manage that huge burst of energy.  The temperatures discussed in the article seemed unreal ...... millions of degrees F.  What a change to our way of producing energy if/when cold fusion becomes a reality.

[Wayne Orwig]

More bikes with variable valve timing, and more horses, from less displacement. As has happened to cars.

More ABS and TPM systems.

More gee gaws and widgets.

More water (and oil) cooling will happen with better controls. (not like the current MG 8V which just dumps oil through the cooler, hot or cold)

Sadly, more plastic crap because it is easier and cheaper to change the look from years to year. (fewer hard tooling changes needed)

And with the cost of a gallon of gasoline so low, at least in the USA right now, electric is  novelty. And motorcycle sales themselves will take a hit.

[oldbike54]

 Remember when physics limited top fuel cars to 7 second 1/4 miles , then 6 second 1/4 miles , then,,, Each new generations normal seems to be increasing .

  Dusty

[kirby1923]

True.. but why would you want it?  I personally think that we've already gone beyond what the average guy can do technology wise. Maybe Guzzi *is* right on deciding to go retro. <snapping suspenders>

I believe that has already happened in modern airliners!! No need to practice hand flying the automation is much better and smoother for the passengers.
"Yesterday I couldn't spell pilot now I are one"
Creepy!

[Triple Jim]

Remember when physics limited top fuel cars to 7 second 1/4 miles , then 6 second 1/4 miles , then,,,

Then they had to shorten the race because too many guys were dying!

[kirby1923]

Kirby, interesting comment (#1.)  I recently read an article about the progress that's been made in fusion reactors, and unlike the old saying "no matter when the article about fusion was written, we were always 30 years away," sounds like the scientific field is much closer to being able to manage that huge burst of energy.  The temperatures discussed in the article seemed unreal ...... millions of degrees F.  What a change to our way of producing energy if/when cold fusion becomes a reality.

Yes I have been following the development for a long time and if (and when) this happens to say it will be  world changing would be a massive understatement.

 Probably won't happen in my lifetime pitty.
:-)

[rboe]

See how cars have matured, bikes will do the same (and have). Like in cars, the weak link is the driver/rider, hence all the electronic gizmos to take the weak ling out of the decision loop where possible - even as far as driverless cars. I doubt bikes will go driverless (why bother getting one then?) but electronic gizmos will become more common and we see that already with ABS, cruise control etc.

But for the vast majority of riders, bike performance is already beyond their skill sets so pushing smaller bikes with more "reasonable" power seem to be making a comeback and I hope it becomes the norm. Riders killed on crotch rockets don't become repeat customers and don't help the hobby. Bikes that are selling well, e.g. the Bonnie, V7, CB500 etc. are not HP kings and I think bikes like them will be more popular.

Like high powered sports cars, there will still be a market for crotch rockets so I don't see them going away.

Side bar: In MotoGP, horsepower and tires seem to be at a limit for the riders (and machines), unless you make a better course or better asphalt I think it will be very difficult to make use of improvements in tires or HP.

[Aaron D.]

Aaron , back in 1965 folks thought a Dunstall Norton , capable of low 13 second 1/4 mile times was approaching a natural limit .

 Wheelie control already comes on many street bikes .

  Dusty

Exactly, once wheelie control is required then the limit has been met. Unless you start dropping the center of gravity to a point where handling is comprised.

[oldbike54]

Yes I have been following the development for a long time and if (and when) this happens to say it will be  world changing would be a massive understatement.

 Probably won't happen in my lifetime pitty.
:-)

 Smithswede , who is VERY deep and thoughtful, brought up the subject of cold fusion while we were at JN's memorial . Well , the night before  He made the statement that it would change the world in ways we can't even imagine . Interesting to hear Bob and Mike are in agreement .

 Hmm , faster than light travel anyone ? Now THAT would be cool !

  Dusty

[Chuck in Indiana]

Smithswede , who is VERY deep and thoughtful, brought up the subject of cold fusion while we were at JN's memorial . Well , the night before  He made the statement that it would change the world in ways we can't even imagine . Interesting to hear Bob and Mike are in agreement .

Hmm , faster than light travel anyone ? Now THAT would be cool !

  Dusty

Well, yeah. Fusion has always been the power of the future, and maybe it always will.  I hope not, because it would be a game changer. Faster than light? Not as far as we *know*. But then.. what we know changes exponentially. Quantum physics makes my head hurt..