Self-Driving cars / autos merged threadfest

[rocker59]

No to go too far off topic but that didn't fix it. When we need a law to tell us what is legal instead of what is not, we're in deep doo-doo.

There are no laws that state specifically I can walk on the sidewalk, go out onto my property and yell at the crows. There are laws that say I cannot walk on the freeways. The premise of your fix is that we are not allowed to do anything some law say we cannot do, that is contrary how laws work.

Lane splitting is legal in the absence of a law stating it is not. The same works for helmets. Are there any states where it is illegal to ride without a helmet and no law exists stating such? There is not one.

To date, not one single motorcyclist in California has been ticketed and found guilty of violating any law for lane splitting, all have been tickets for doing so in an unsafe manner. It's a very big difference. No one has to  prove what they are doing is legal, it is up to some authority to prove it is illegal.

Just the fact that you use "lane splitting" instead of "lane sharing" shows how convoluted and complicated things like this can be.

I've followed the California Lane Sharing news and talk over the years, and it's been interesting.

While I agree with you that something "not illegal" should logically be "legal", I don't think it's that cut-and-dry on California's Lane Sharing issues.

[jas67]

There are also autonomous semis being tested on highways as we speak. it's very possible that we will see these before cars. Limited to expressways for long-hauls perhaps, but there is a shortage of long haul drivers and eliminating driver pay could be a big incentive for a large trucking company.

This seems to be the wrong solution to the problem.    We've had long-haul rail transport for what, 150 years or more?

The best solution to long haul freight transport is intermodal rail +  trucks, were the trucks haul the containers to the final destination.

Rail is way more fuel efficient than trucks.   Moving more freight via rail would be good for the environment, and ease congestion on our highways.

[Lannis]

This seems to be the wrong solution to the problem.    We've had long-haul rail transport for what, 150 years or more?

The best solution to long haul freight transport is intermodal rail +  trucks, were the trucks haul the containers to the final destination.

Rail is way more fuel efficient than trucks.   Moving more freight via rail would be good for the environment, and ease congestion on our highways.

Yep.   Three guys running a train can haul as much freight as 100 guys driving trucks, with trucks for the final 100 miles to where the stuff goes.

It hurts every time someone here celebrates a "Rails to Trails" conversion.    I hope we'll be converting them back someday and getting the big trucks off the road, along with the tires, diesel fuel, and danger to cars and bikes .....

Lannis

[sthomag]

In the long run vehicles will probably have transceivers broadcasting vectors computed through GPS, and will be able to calculate convergence probabilities. Yamaha probably already has that capability in its six-axis motion sensor.

That will not be an unalloyed blessing. It means that the Authorities will be able to monitor your speed at all times. Is that what we really want?

[jas67]

Considering the endless number of variables, I'd say that humans do a great job.

I can't imagine the amount of processing power that will be required to have a truly autonomous automobile.

Processing power, endless sensor, and very complex software --- WRITTEN BY HUMANS.

As a software developer, I can say, there is no such thing as perfect software.

With regard to autopilot systems in airplanes.     The crew are trained to constantly monitor the aircraft while be flown on autopilot, and to take control immediately if anything goes amiss.    Do we really trust the average distracted American SDV driver passenger to do this?   They won't.     Please will embrace SDV's so that they can tweet catch up on facebook, and watch all the latest "FAIL" videos.   What about alcohol?   I can see that many people will use SDV's to get them home from the bar.     That's a whole legal area right there that doesn't yet exist.   Will it be legal to drink and "drive" if you have a SDV?

I think some of the driver assistant safety systems currently being offered in cars, such as park distance warnings, following distance warnings, lane departure "assist", etc could all be helpful in dealing with the distracted driver problem -- which, IMHO, is the biggest problem on the roads today.

[jas67]

That will not be an unalloyed blessing. It means that the Authorities will be able to monitor your speed at all times. Is that what we really want?

That's make me wish I lived close to a track that offered frequent track days.

[blackcat]

Considering the endless number of variables, I'd say that humans do a great job.

I can't imagine the amount of processing power that will be required to have a truly autonomous automobile.

Statistically, the number of motor vehicle deaths have declined in this country but I would guess that this has more to do with vastly improved vehicle safety equipment than better driving capabilities of the general public.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_motor_vehicle_deaths_in_U.S._by_year

[Lannis]

Statistically, the number of motor vehicle deaths have declined in this country but I would guess that this has more to do with vastly improved vehicle safety equipment than better driving capabilities of the general public.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_motor_vehicle_deaths_in_U.S._by_year

I got behind the wheel of a 1951 Mercury the other day, and although I'm not a big fan of regulated stuff in general, I will say that seeing that solid steel steering column poking out of that solid steel dash and floor pointed right at my heart, with NO seat belt of any kind, definitely gave me the feeling that even my little Festiva would help me survive in an accident more than the 4000 pounds of mass in that old car ..... !

Lannis

[kirby1923]

Processing power, endless sensor, and very complex software --- WRITTEN BY HUMANS.

As a software developer, I can say, there is no such thing as perfect software.

With regard to autopilot systems in airplanes.    The crew are trained to constantly monitor the aircraft while be flown on autopilot, and to take control immediately if anything goes amiss.    Do we really trust the average distracted American SDV driver passenger to do this?   They won't.     Please will embrace SDV's so that they can tweet catch up on facebook, and watch all the latest "FAIL" videos.   What about alcohol?   I can see that many people will use SDV's to get them home from the bar.     That's a whole legal area right there that doesn't yet exist.   Will it be legal to drink and "drive" if you have a SDV?

I think some of the driver assistant safety systems currently being offered in cars, such as park distance warnings, following distance warnings, lane departure "assist", etc could all be helpful in dealing with the distracted driver problem -- which, IMHO, is the biggest problem on the roads today.

That's not like flying the machine, and if you don't fly the machine then you lose your piloting skills. Recent accidents have shown that not being proficient in flying skills have been a major factor in cause + not really understanding the highly complex FMS (flight management systems)   can confuse uh.. the pilot or uh..the flight technician!

You want distraction, give them a computer to operate everything.

[blackcat]

I got behind the wheel of a 1951 Mercury the other day, and although I'm not a big fan of regulated stuff in general, I will say that seeing that solid steel steering column poking out of that solid steel dash and floor pointed right at my heart, with NO seat belt of any kind, definitely gave me the feeling that even my little Festiva would help me survive in an accident more than the 4000 pounds of mass in that old car ..... !

Lannis

True.

Of course with the way new cars collapse, that Mercury might be OK with hitting the Festiva,etc. as the newer vehicle would act as the shock absorber for the Merc. I'm sure the occupants of the modern car might not enjoy that experience. 

[Testarossa]

Regarding the efficiency of trains for freight: The chief problem is that freight trains get stacked up behind slow coal trains. 15 mph is NOT an acceptable speed for interstate freight.

If the speed were better it would make sense to put whole trucks on flatcars, as they do crossing the alps in Europe.  See http://www.solartoday-digital.org/solartoday/201004?pg=33#pg33

[MRLost]

Very interesting thread. I would like to add a few points.

First, regarding insurance. Insurance rates are based on actuarial experience; no experience with a device or product or whatever means high insurance costs because the insurance company has no idea how to price the coverage. Therefore, they cover their ass and charge a bundle. Right now, it's all experimental and Google is rich enough to self-insure so liability coverage is not a problem. Once SDC and the like starts to go mainstream, that will all change. Consider the current situation: If you cause a collision, then it's your fault and everybody knows who to blame and who's responsible and who to sue. If you're not driving the car and are merely a passenger, then who's to blame and who to sue? (This is America, right? Anybody can sue anybody for anything, right? I mean it's in the Constitution, right? Am I right or am I right?) Will it be the software company that wrote the autonomous driving package that bears the burden of liability? The company responsible for operating the self-driving roadway? I can tell you who (based on history) ... the company with the deepest pockets, that's who. And also regarding insurance, who ever heard of insurance rates going down? In the industry, not going up so fast is what they call going down. But the previous poster was right; as fewer people drive their own cars, the insurance rates charged to those people will skyrocket until only the richest of the rich can drive their own car just because of the cost of insurance. So people will be forced into SDC because they cannot afford to insure their own car, and that will happen very fast once the SDC are generally available and IF THEY WORK! Imagine for just a moment a brave new world where auto collisions are incredibly rare. Far fewer police or EMS. Hospital emergency rooms would be half empty. Auto repair shops would practically disappear. The list is long and underlies a hefty chunk of our economy.

Second point regards the use of transponders ... you will want one. A transponder will mean the SDC really knows you're there, not maybe knows you're there or you hope it knows you're there or it's supposed to or anything like that. A transponder means that 18-wheeler with eighty-eight thousand pounds of live pigs doing 80 MPH will unquestionably recognize and record the presence of your moped at midnight in the rain as you're riding home from your third job. Imagine if you could nail something onto your bike that meant an entire class of vehicles would never, ever run into you. Transponders will be lifesavers in the brave new world.

I can hardly wait.

[Lannis]

Transponders will be lifesavers in the brave new world.

I can hardly wait.

Trying to decide if a description of a country with "self-driving cars" as a Brave New World is ironic or a Freudian slip ... !

[drums4money]

Sometimes my GPS gets indigestion & can't find a satellite.  Other times my cell phone can't get any reception.  I wonder what would happen if the SDC's couldn't get acknowledgement by the satellites or cell towers.. . .and no driver control.

They'd just sit in one place with the hour-glass spinning on the display in the dash waiting for the clouds to part. 

So long as the dashes aren't made by the same clowns that cocked up the 1200Sport dashes we'll probably be OK.

[atavar]

Sometimes my GPS gets indigestion & can't find a satellite.  Other times my cell phone can't get any reception.  I wonder what would happen if the SDC's couldn't get acknowledgement by the satellites or cell towers.. . .and no driver control.

They'd just sit in one place with the hour-glass spinning on the display in the dash waiting for the clouds to part. 

So long as the dashes aren't made by the same clowns that cocked up the 1200Sport dashes we'll probably be OK.

They have all the maps downloaded and can operate for quite a while on inertial guidance and radar and cameras.  They do not rely solely on GPS.

[Lannis]

They have all the maps downloaded and can operate for quite a while on inertial guidance and radar and cameras. 

Sounds like a fantastic fail-safe mode.   On I-66 with 70 MPH bumper-to-bumper traffic, if they lose the GPS signal, they'll just run on what they remembered and dead-reckoning until it comes back on, then they'll re-integrate and continue without even a blip. 

Oh   my    lord.   You guys .....

I'm sorry.  I keeping saying and thinking that I'll shut up.   But the fantasies just keep getting wilder and wilder.   NOW, not only do I not think that this technology will be on the real roads in real cars "in the next few years", I don't think any of us will live to see it and say "I told you so".

All right.  I'm really really done now and will stop peeing in the Back to the Future discussion.

Lannis

[travelingbyguzzi]

As long as Luap's servers hold, we will keep reminding you Lannis. But therein lies the problem...problem.. ....  problem.......probl em........

[Lannis]

As long as Luap's servers hold, we will keep reminding you Lannis. But therein lies the problem...problem.. ....  problem.......probl em........

       good one!

Daaaiiissyy Daaaiiissyy giiivve meeee your ans   1010001110101000100 0111001001 stack overflow at 82C5008DE oh SHIIIII - BOOM!

[rocker59]

This seems to be the wrong solution to the problem.    We've had long-haul rail transport for what, 150 years or more?

The best solution to long haul freight transport is intermodal rail +  trucks, were the trucks haul the containers to the final destination.

Rail is way more fuel efficient than trucks.   Moving more freight via rail would be good for the environment, and ease congestion on our highways.

My other job, the one other than moderator here, is in transportation logistics.  Right now, rail hauls more tonnage than it ever has, despite a reduction in the number of miles of rail in The USA.  Right now, rail transports more containers and trailers than it ever has.  You might be amazed at the numbers of containers and trailers travelling by rail in the USA.  There are huge regional intermodal facilities in the large metros all over the USA.  For intermodal to be efficient and cost effective, the transit needs to be 500+ miles, and the freight cannot be time-sensitive. 

For short-haul and time-sensitive frieght, Over The Road is the only way. 

From the intermodal terminal, to destinations within a few hundred miles of the terminal, Over The Road is the only way.

Since you live in New England, you are going to see a lot of those trucks on the road.  The container or trailer you're looking at may have travelled by rail from Long Beach or Miami or Fort Worth to Philadelphia, then was put on the road to make its destination.

Yep.   Three guys running a train can haul as much freight as 100 guys driving trucks, with trucks for the final 100 miles to where the stuff goes.

It hurts every time someone here celebrates a "Rails to Trails" conversion.    I hope we'll be converting them back someday and getting the big trucks off the road, along with the tires, diesel fuel, and danger to cars and bikes .....

Lannis

The big intermodal trails have a conductor and an engineer.  A two-man crew.  Each piece of rail equipment can carry either two trailers or containers.  Your number is off by a factor of two or three for long-haul intermodal trains. 

Big trucks will never be off the road.  It would require too many miles of rail line, and it would require our time-sensitive world to turn it down a notch.  The world will not slow down, so the result will be more trucks on the road, despite the constantly increasing capacity of the railroads' intermodal operations.

The abandoned rail lines are usually abandoned for economic reasons.  If the line was in an economically viable location, it would not by abandoned, but taken over by another rail company.  The abandoned rights of way either revert to the landowners, or in some rare cases to The State.  Those cases are rare, however.  IMHO, this was a major screw up of the original grants given the rail roads during the expansion of the 1800s.  The rights of way should have been deeded so that they would revert to The States if ever abandoned, and kept available for future rail use.  They weren't, so most abandoned rights of way melt back into the landscape and will never be rail roads again.

[Penderic]

And what about all those darn horse and buggies on the roads!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Q5Nur642BU

[Lannis]

The abandoned rail lines are usually abandoned for economic reasons.  If the line was in an economically viable location, it would not by abandoned, but taken over by another rail company. 

You know more about this than I do, so I won't dispute your data or conclusions as things stand today.   

But things can change about how fast we "have to" have something versus the cost of getting it there; and something that's not "economically viable" in today's world may be viable tomorrow ....

Lannis

[rocker59]

things can change about how fast we "have to" have something versus the cost of getting it there; 

With LEAN and JIT being the standard, rather than the exception, I don't see manufacturers, retailers, and consumers ever being satisfied with later rather than sooner.  I don't like it, but that's just the way it is.

something that's not "economically viable" in today's world may be viable tomorrow ....

Hey, I agree.  I think it's stupid that abandoned rail lines have been allowed to revert to the owners of the land the rail right of way passes through.  I know of at least one case here in Arkansas where a railroad company wanted to rehabilitate and reactivate part of an abandoned line.  They had to negotiate sales price of the right of way property with every land owner along the line.  There were several land owners who didn't want to sell the right of way to the new railroad.  Guess what?  The expansion was cut short due to lack of cooperation from some of the land owners.  If the land had reverted to The State years ago when it had been abandoned, then the new railroad could've leased the right of way from The State and the land owners would've had no say.  But again, it is what it is, and it isn't what it "should be".

[rocker59]

Delrod has an old rail bed on his property really close to his house , not sure he wants a train coming through at 2 AM .

  Dusty

True, but his house probably wouldn't be where it is, if the right of way was still held by The State of Kansas.

[Lannis]

Delrod has an old rail bed on his property really close to his house , not sure he wants a train coming through at 2 AM .

  Dusty

I like trains; my son has a freight line that goes about 80 yards behind his house, and his little girls get all excited every time a train comes through (only three times a day though).   

Lannis ("How often does the train come by?"  "So often that you'll never notice it ...")

[rocker59]

True , but he had to put it somewhere .

  Dusty

That's an interesting conundrum for my position that all rights of way should be retained by The States. 

There is still a line from Pittsburg to Cherokee.  The one running behind his place was probably removed because it was  not needed.  My guess is it was a Mo-Pac branch line that couldn't compete with the KCS main.

I'll have to ask delrod, sometime.

[willowstreetguzziguy]

What seems to be the trend in motorcycling in your neck of the wood? Living in South Central Penna., I see a ton of Harleys everywhere I go and  “Ricky Racers”.  Also see some Gold Wings and a few Adventure bikes.

I’m into sport touring with my Guzzi 1200 Sport and BMW K75S but that seems to be dropping in popularity.

What do you see gaining or losing in popularity and what is the reasoning behind it?  Is there anything cycle manufacturers can produce or do to bring back the masses like in the 1970’s? I believe the average age is going up with fewer young riders taking up the sport. 

I drive past the local Honda dealer and they have rows of ATV’s lining their lot but hardly any motorcycles. What’s happening and why?

[oldbike54]

 Good topic . Noticed lots of HDs this weekend in the Mtns around the Okie camp out , but also saw quite a few Beemers , several Adv bikes , and a fair few Wings . Something I have always been curious about re the increasing average age of MClists. How much of that is due to young folks not entering the sport , or more to do with the fact that we live longer now , and more of us are riding well into our golden years ?

  Dusty

[elvisboy77]

Interesting question - I have to say I have never worried about who is buying what and why, so I ride Guzzi, not the bigger brands.  To each their own.

I have to say, based on the number of three wheelers I see there may be an aging in the demographic
!

[Triple Jim]

Something I have always been curious about re the increasing average age of MClists. How much of that is due to young folks not entering the sport , or more to do with the fact that we live longer now , and more of us are riding well into our golden years ?

I figured it was because it's not politically correct to ride a motorcycle now, largely due to young riders buying race bikes that pass as street bikes and getting hurt or killed.  Us older guys got into riding when it was still accepted by society.  Maybe the new trend toward smaller, lower powered motorcycles (Ninja 250 and 300, KTM 390, small block Guzzis, Ducati Scrambler, etc.) will help. 

[RinkRat II]

 Here at Lake Powell  in AZ  we see tremendous numbers of Harleys, all rentals by European riders out seeing the southwest and it's beauty. After they all go home it's the usual suspects here in town with Harleys,Hondas,Indians and a few European brands[Guzzi and Beemer, mine] and a couple of dual sports. We have a Honda dealership but like you say, mostly four wheelers  and off road stuff. Knowing most of the regulars,I'd say the median age is 50ish. Don't see lots of young riders on street bikes but in all fairness we have a boatload of offroad areas to ride. My .02$

   Paul B