A saturated motorcycle market... what's on the horizon?

[willowstreetguzziguy]

With todays motorcycles lasting longer and fewer people taking up the sport, a ton of used bikes are out there for sale everywhere... somethings got to happen!  What's on the horizon...

Used bike prices plummet?
Mfgrs drastically reduce new bike prices?
A reduction of the number of models offered by each mfgr?
Some mfgrs. going out of business? Who?
Fewer dealers? Mega-Dealers?
Mfgrs joining forces to become one company?
Smaller displacement cycles will be all the rage?
Large displacement bikes no longer desirable?
Electric cycles rule?
Millenials take up the sport in a different segment?

Whatever it is, the next 20 years will be interesting to watch!
 

[twowheeladdict]

Manufacturers look to be moving in two different directions. 

They are producing bikes with more technology, safety, creature comforts, etc. to appeal to the people who want the latest and greatest, and they are producing more entry level basic bikes to appeal to the folks who would rather buy new than used because of warranties, service, parts availability etc. instead of buying used bikes. 

When bikes don't advance I prefer to buy used over new unless the depreciation isn't there. 

I bought the V7III because I perceived it to be a superior machine compared to the V7 or V7II. 

[LowRyter]

The next deal will be electric bikes.  You guys will be trashing your Guzzis, Ducs, vintage Brit Twins and 4 cyl UJMs for electric.

Can't wait for you guys to soup up batteries with special chemistry mixes and Guzzi Diag 9.0

[Ncdan]

When all the ole timers here die out I’m quitting anyway;)

[Diploman]

Why do motorcyclists obsess and spend big dollars on aftermarket exhausts, seeking the perfect exhaust note?  Because the intoxicating sound of a 4-stroke motor is an essential, irreplaceable feature of motorcycle charisma.  No whining electric bike is ever going to eclipse that.  Electrics maybe appealing in many ways, but the moto hardcore will long be loathe give up internal combustion engines, just because of the visceral satisfaction of having that pulsating, sweet-sounding lump between the rider's legs.

[Motormike]

I'm actually becoming concerned that the whole "electric bike" "carbon footprint" stuff will impact my ability to sell my old internal combustion two-wheeled dinosaurs.  How many car manufacturers have announced they are going all electric by a certain year?  California  would ban IC engines now if they thought they could get away with it.  In a few years, they will.

[Tusayan]

My current motorcycles are great to ride and enjoy and have been selected and collected carefully over 30 years.  The only new bikes I've been really attracted to since 2000 are some of the Harley engined Buells and the new V85TT. I might get one or both of those as time goes on but otherwise over the next twenty years I expect to be riding pretty much what I'm already riding.  After that if I'm still around, if I can't ride them I'll polish them until I sell them.

A two wheeled car with 'technology' and 'features' is exactly what I want to avoid, and will avoid. What others may like and buy over the next twenty years isn't of great interest to me - if some like what I like its good for resale, but if not I might be able to find still better, low mileage pre-2000 bikes for low prices.  Either way is good 

I'm expecting slow but measureable growth in the electric vehicle sector, with lots of people not biting until the economics and practicality make sense to them - which won't be soon.  Certainly anybody who wants to outlaw use of currently registered vehicles in the US will face an impossible battle.

[Antietam Classic Cycle]

You guys will be trashing your Guzzis, Ducs, vintage Brit Twins and 4 cyl UJMs for electric.

 

[bad Chad]

I'm actually becoming concerned that the whole "electric bike" "carbon footprint" stuff will impact my ability to sell my old internal combustion two-wheeled dinosaurs.  How many car manufacturers have announced they are going all electric by a certain year?  California  would ban IC engines now if they thought they could get away with it.  In a few years, they will.

I don’t think so, I see your point but you are ignoring the rush of instant 100% torque!   And if you really want to make your bike rumble you still will be able, in fact you can make it sound like a f4 or whatever you want, the choice is limitless.

[JJ]

"What's on the horizon?!" - - Death and Taxes!!

[stubbie]

A lot of bike shops here won't even look at a bike more than 10 years old. Even BMW weren't interested in trading one of there own for a near new bike. I've basically given away the last 2 bikes Iv'e sold. Only way to move them. You could put a piece of cardboard in the spokes of your electric bike so people can hear you coming.

[kingoffleece]

Addding fake sound to an electric bike, to quote Keith Richards, would be 'the height of bad manors".

[s1120]

I think the market will always have peaks and valleys..  And on top of that tastes change..  I think bikes had gotten way to complex, and costly for a large number of years. Add to that the last 10 years the market has been pretty soft..  The old bikes from the peak years are getting old, people still beat the tar out of their new stuff. [search Crags list for a 10 year old sport bike …. some pretty sad examples out there] And frankly... some buyers will only want new..  Not sure we will ever see the numbers of the 70's, and 80's again.. But I think things will still keep moving. Im all ready seeing a lot of buzz about the cheaper, more basic, simple bikes. The RE650, the MG V7 as examples.

[twowheeladdict]

I'm actually becoming concerned that the whole "electric bike" "carbon footprint" stuff will impact my ability to sell my old internal combustion two-wheeled dinosaurs.  How many car manufacturers have announced they are going all electric by a certain year?  California  would ban IC engines now if they thought they could get away with it.  In a few years, they will.

If you are really concerned about being able to sell the bikes, you better sell now. 

The longest I've ever kept a bike is 6 years but my average is around 2 1/2 years.  My wants and needs in my motorcycle experience journey change and so the bikes change with me. 

A few of the bikes I had because they were beautiful machines and stuck around longer than they should have because they didn't accumulate the miles like the others.  The Vulcan Mean Streak and the V7 Cafe Classic are two bikes I wish I still had the space to keep in the stable. 

If I had unlimited money, space, and time, i would definitely be buying up bikes that I found aesthetically pleasing regardless of whether I could ride them for more than 10 miles at a time. 

[chuck peterson]

I look at a few classifieds......

The used bike prices for newer models is crashing, and that's subtracting the obvious spam scams of bizarre pricing.

Just yesterday I could have added 5-6 bikes, less than 5 yrs old, decked out with all the farkled bits, aftermarket exhausts, bags, tech, immaculate looks no damage or wear showing.....all below about 20-30% of a new cost, especially if you add all the farkles....all types and brands. I'm continually amazed how great the used market is....however, but

I'm only buying what I'll not HAVE TO sell...and what I'm curious to ride....and it has to be really cheap. I figure their won't be a buyers market like this again, because the clean electric gps driven self driving car will turn our roads and streets into a slow motion congested Conga line. How many cars have you started to see w a sticker that says "I'm going the speed limit because my boss is spying on my behavior"...Going 5 over in a 25 will get you a ticket because of the tech

But the older stuff has changed too. With entire parts inventory on line, it's easy to find your bits and pieces. People out there grab decent bikes and break them out on eBay as a full time business. For the old stuff in the garage I've stopped stockpiling parts and leaving it on eBay until needed. It seems to me the older stuff is going for less now, with more people restoring for the purposes of resell and not keep

I won't buy a bike unless I'm not going to sell it ...mine...you can't have it

These are going down fast, faster, fastest...along w the oceans of HD Sporties...




post picture


https://newyork.craigslist.org/wch/mcy/d/eastchester-kawasaki-vulcan-900-classic/6927652676.html

These are, or have been rising in price and quality w the availability of parts getting scrounged on eBay....

https://newyork.craigslist.org/lgi/mcy/d/centerport-vintage-1966-yamaha-ym1/6927657315.html

[Two Checks]

When they go electric, they will finally be making MOTORcycles....

[elvisboy77]

I'll use electricity for my electric razor and gasoline for my transportation, thanks.

The glut of bikes is probably from the over hype of the media, sheeple tend to believe the printed word.....like this message lol

[kirby1923]

When they go electric, they will finally be making MOTORcycles....

Ha!,so true!

In engineering parlance IC powered cycles should be called "enginecycles" And modern "fuel injection" used in gasoline powered ICs is in reality electric controlled carburation... 

Folks on this board that think the end of IC engines is near...ah, probably won't live to see that come anywhere near true. ICs just keep getting better and cleaner, lighter and cheaper to produce.

They are a marvel of engineering achievement.

:-)

[John Croucher]

Local, State, Regional, National & World Market's are all different.  Trying to make a single marketing and model decision to meet all of these location with a single model will not work. 

Humans went from floating on logs, riding on animals, carts with wheels, ships, trains, automobiles, airplanes and space rockets.  Whats next?  My guess is more electric, less I.C.E. powering Our fun and needs. 

As far as old stock, it will gradually go the way of the anvil.  I read in a Convenience Store trade magazine there is over $13 Trillion in infrastructural built around the I.C.E. transportation vehicles. 

I have been in the cellular phone business since 1994, prior to that, the pager business.  The massive changes I have seen were huge and drastic.  I recycled van loads of old technology phones as consumers demanded newer technology. 

I appreciate change and look forward to it.    I like my climate controller on the wall of the house, not owning a chain say to cut firewood or a windmill to pump water.  Power steering and anti lock brakes are great along with an automatic transmission. 

[Two Checks]

I don't think there was so much consumer demand but it was more the manufacturer created the product then marketing ginned up demand. I don't think people who had an iPhone 2 were screaming for an iPhone 3....until they came out.


Win 7 was fine. Then we got Win 8, the OS nobody asked for so we got Win 10. Nobody wanted it.
Its all about generating sales.

[LowRyter]

Once they figure out range and charging, and they are close, that should be it.  Of course low carbon and renewable generation and environmentally responsible lithium (or replacement minerals) have to be figured out.

The electric infrastructure is already in place, just need charging service ports.

[bad Chad]

I agree with John.   We are getting pretty close to the tipping point.  All the auto mfg have are gearing up to go majority electric.    The rocket has left the pad, there is no stopping it, unless it explodes!

[Ncdan]

I may be wrong guys but I’d give 2 to 1 odds this movements to electric bikes holds off until our generation has left the building 👍

[JJ]

Another very cool vintage Honda...right near me...

However, because it has sat for a long, long, time, it would require A LOT of work to make road worthy which means a lot of time and $$$ MONEY $$$

https://flagstaff.craigslist.org/mcy/d/flagstaff-1966-honda-305-scrambler/6926649018.html

[AJ Huff]

I'd be all over an electric Guzzi with the traditional jugs replaced with battery packs to maintain the look. Or something like that.

-AJ

[JJ]

...and meanwhile...on fleaBAY!!  "Dooooohhhh!!!" 

[Lannis]

Humans went from floating on logs, riding on animals, carts with wheels, ships, trains, automobiles, airplanes and space rockets. 

I appreciate change and look forward to it.    I like my climate controller on the wall of the house, not owning a chain say to cut firewood or a windmill to pump water.  Power steering and anti lock brakes are great along with an automatic transmission.

Things never change as fast or as much as we think they will.

As the man says, I STILL go down the road dressed in animal skins straddling a machine propelled by fire ....

Lannis

[Testarossa]

Things never change as fast or as much as we think they will.

Well, actually they can change much much faster than anyone expected. In 1907 only 140,000 motor vehicles were registered in the U.S. Ten years later it was 23 million (not including farm equipment), equal to the horse population. The number of horses later fell to 3 million. Over the same period we went from 148,000 miles of paved roads to more than 30 million. All of this was powered, in part, by government subsidies of petroleum development, which happened because the Navy needed fuel oil for its battle fleet and the Army needed gasoline to run tanks and trucks.

Stuff can happen fast. Motorcycle factories that want to survive (not to mention thrive) have to recognize that they're not in a motorsports business but in the cheap transportation business. Whatever it takes to grow in emerging economies is what they'll need to do. Successful companies will compete in the developed world with innovative products that can soak up discretionary $$ and meet as-yet-undefined needs.

The most successful motorcycle company worldwide is Honda, which leveraged a reputation for dependable engines to carve out a huge piece of the auto business -- one of the best-ever examples of hedging. Yamaha's engine-design alliance with Toyota is a good example of beyond-motorcycle thinking.

[Lannis]

Stuff can happen fast. Motorcycle factories that want to survive (not to mention thrive) have to recognize that they're not in a motorsports business but in the cheap transportation business. Whatever it takes to grow in emerging economies is what they'll need to do. Successful companies will compete in the developed world with innovative products that can soak up discretionary $$ and meet as-yet-undefined needs.

That's a good example and a short timeframe.   But there are lots of counterexamples.

The 1911A1.   Still a standard design, 108 years old.    Boeing B52, in service for 60 years now, probably be 100 before the last ones are grounded.   C130 Herk, still in production since 1954.   Beechcraft Bonanza, still in production since 1945.

The 1915 Cadillac.   Rubber tires, electric start, gasoline engine, pistons, crankshaft, differential, gear transmission, front wheel steering; essentially the same as a car today, 104 years later.

Until and unless someone comes up with a breakthrough like your example, that brings the energy density of 7 pounds of battery to somewhere near that of a gallon of gasoline, and doesn't have to rape the world for lithium, I think we'll be using IC for a while.

Lannis

[rocker59]

Well, actually they can change much much faster than anyone expected. In 1907 only 140,000 motor vehicles were registered in the U.S. Ten years later it was 23 million (not including farm equipment), equal to the horse population. The number of horses later fell to 3 million. Over the same period we went from 148,000 miles of paved roads to more than 30 million. All of this was powered, in part, by government subsidies of petroleum development, which happened because the Navy needed fuel oil for its battle fleet and the Army needed gasoline to run tanks and trucks.

True, but cars and trucks were also better/cheaper/faster/lower maintenance than horses.  So far, over the past 50 years, electric has not been able to provide those benefits over internal combustion.

Stuff can happen fast. Motorcycle factories that want to survive (not to mention thrive) have to recognize that they're not in a motorsports business but in the cheap transportation business. Whatever it takes to grow in emerging economies is what they'll need to do. Successful companies will compete in the developed world with innovative products that can soak up discretionary $$ and meet as-yet-undefined needs.

For 50-years, now, proponents of electric autos have been trying.  So far, electric has only been able to make very small inroads into auto/moto/truck markets.   The electric people will have to provide machines that are better/cheaper/faster in order to provide the kind of sea change that was provided when autos replaced horses in the early 20th Century.

The most successful motorcycle company worldwide is Honda, which leveraged a reputation for dependable engines to carve out a huge piece of the auto business -- one of the best-ever examples of hedging. Yamaha's engine-design alliance with Toyota is a good example of beyond-motorcycle thinking.

How is Honda doing in the electric car and motorcycle business?