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That's a good example and a short timeframe. But there are lots of counterexamples.The 1911A1. Still a standard design, 108 years old. Boeing B52, in service for 60 years now, probably be 100 before the last ones are grounded. C130 Herk, still in production since 1954. Beechcraft Bonanza, still in production since 1945.The 1915 Cadillac. Rubber tires, electric start, gasoline engine, pistons, crankshaft, differential, gear transmission, front wheel steering; essentially the same as a car today, 104 years later.Until and unless someone comes up with a breakthrough like your example, that brings the energy density of 7 pounds of battery to somewhere near that of a gallon of gasoline, and doesn't have to rape the world for lithium, I think we'll be using IC for a while.Lannis
True, but cars and trucks were also better/cheaper/faster/lower maintenance than horses. So far, over the past 50 years, electric has not been able to provide those benefits over internal combustion.For 50-years, now, proponents of electric autos have been trying. So far, electric has only been able to make very small inroads into auto/moto/truck markets. The electric people will have to provide machines that are better/cheaper/faster in order to provide the kind of sea change that was provided when autos replaced horses in the early 20th Century.How is Honda doing in the electric car and motorcycle business?
Michael, we're just on the bottom of the learning curve for EV. I would imagine that we're a couple of generations of development away from hitting critical mass but I think it's inevitable. And I'll bet those generations might happen pretty quickly.
People have been saying that since the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo...
A while back I helped an old friend develop an electric motor powered aircraft. He was a principal in the Quickie Aircraft Corp. which was a single place composite machine that used a 30 hp onan flat head generator engine for its power plant. It was quite successful with that engine.Long story short, we had a 25 hp electric motor and our problem was to find a battery solution...ugh.Ended up with Li batteries with expectable weight with about 30 min range..not much but this was for a contest that offered a big prize so good enough.You can go (and I did) on the internet an find many companies that claim they have discovered to way to do this but when you contact them all they have is an idea and want you to invest.
The electric people will have to provide machines that are better/cheaper/faster in order to provide the kind of sea change that was provided when autos replaced horses in the early 20th Century.
I was in Paris for work a couple of weeks ago and saw the electric future, at least in cities. It wasn't those obnoxious electric Razor scooters clogging the sidewalks (though they are everywhere, and the French madly ride them at full speed on the sidewalks, weaving around startled pedestrians); the future was electric Vespa-style sit-on scooters. A surprising number of them were circulating around the Place St. Michel. Eerily quiet, but seemingly quite capable for city traffic. I think that an electric Vespa makes a ton of sense for that kind of commute, a lot more sense than trying to make an electric motorcycle capable of touring. Given pollution concerns I think that big cities like Paris are likely to ban combustion in central areas sooner rather than later.
Wonder how well a $35K electric will depreciate?( not to mention a $65K one)
Well, it looks like those people are proving to be right.
Yeah, but when they find out that its going to take "Dilithium" to make it work..cheaper is out of reach.Do you think that the electric car driver feels pretty good of him/her self that they are doing their part saving the planet when they pull up beside a 1 ton duly at a traffic light? :-)
Electric vehicle sales were up 81% in 2018 over 2017. 360,000 units sold.
Bike Dealers.....they no longer have new bikes out front. Side by sides, wave runners, mowers. Tractors, fork lifts, outboard motors, etc.. Hell,Harley has Mahindra Razors out front. But they are the only ones that have new bikes out front.
Maybe I can find the Ducati Monster I've always wanted for cheap money...Larry
Of course the petro fuel companies have gotten a free ride since there has been no carbon tax, basically dumping carbon into the air like it's a garbage dump. Cost vs cost, we might have gotten EVs and green electricity much sooner.
It certainly makes sense to go electric in urban areas and Europe looks to be stepping up. One interesting note, I was recently in Northern Europe (NE and GE) and "prestige car" was a Tesla. When was the last time an American car a status symbol?
I got tired of working on old airheads (and a short lived 850T) and bought a 2006 S2R for very little money. It's an amazing motorcycle for what I paid. Loads of character, and it turns heads every time I ride it. I put bar risers on it, and think I might even be able to do some long-weekend tours. I did the valve check myself--much easier than I imagined.
I知 not sure batteries are the answer, yet. I expect a better option would be hybrids that could take power from an electrified toll road, but still have some sort of fuel-burner for unelectrified access roads. That way, traffic speed and the interval of vehicles could be regulated in highly used or other dangerous areas. Power transmission is a bigger problem, as wires waste a great deal of power the further they stretch out. I知 guessing the emergence of cold fusion will change things in a big way. One of the big government contractors has already claimed that a truck-portable cold fusion generator is on the horizon that can power a small town. Also, industry has already transitioned away from piston powered engines and switched to turbines. Maintenance is much easier and the fuel is safer than gasoline. The good news as far as I知 concerned is that motorcycles will be available used for a song.
I agree Hybrid is the answer. at least till new tech comes along.. I think we are doing it wrong though. The newer plug in hybrids are a turn in the right direction I believe though.. Mostly electric, with just a small gas engine for recharging and cold weather heat needs. That will give the usefull range we need, but still allow for plug in EV power for short runs.