A saturated motorcycle market... what's on the horizon?

[Furbo]

Things never change as fast or as much as we think they will.

As the man says, I STILL go down the road dressed in animal skins straddling a machine propelled by fire ....

Lannis

Lannis, THAT phrase is a thing of beauty. I'm gonna use it in a Scottish Accent. Thanks!!!  Todd

[kirby1923]

Riding in California...

A big state w/34 million folks?(LA times data).

87% of the population reside within 50 miles of the coast! If you stay off the interstates, between San Diego and San Francisco (I-5 Highway 99) in the San Quoaquin valley and the big metropolitans areas,  you can find some Very Lightly traveled roads (vast amount actually) some of which are Alps like.
And the miles  of dirt roads in the mountain ranges is vast.

I've been leaving California for 50 years..

:-)

[Lannis]

Things never change as fast or as much as we think they will.

As the man says, I STILL go down the road dressed in animal skins straddling a machine propelled by fire ....

Lannis

Lannis, THAT phrase is a thing of beauty. I'm gonna use it in a Scottish Accent. Thanks!!!  Todd

Like every other word or phrase I (or anyone else here) writes or uses, I learned it from someone else and use it shamelessly.

I believe that credit for this one goes to 'Rough Edge Racing' ....

Lannis

[Motormike]

No Guzzi content, but just another example of how the environmento wackos and their politicians step all over one another to show how "green" they are.  And if you don't like it, well tough:
 
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-17/california-s-berkeley-bans-natural-gas-in-new-buildings

Of course, if there's one thing I've learned in my 60+ years on this planet, is that people vote with their feet!

[Lannis]

No Guzzi content, but just another example of how the environmento wackos and their politicians step all over one another to show how "green" they are.  And if you don't like it, well tough:
 
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-17/california-s-berkeley-bans-natural-gas-in-new-buildings

Of course, if there's one thing I've learned in my 60+ years on this planet, is that people vote with their feet!

Could be a good thing for all of us; it only affects a limited area and it'll be like an experiment to see how it goes, and whether they stick with it.   They can always undo it if it doesn't have the intended consequence ....

Lannis

[LowRyter]

No Guzzi content, but just another example of how the environmento wackos and their politicians step all over one another to show how "green" they are.  And if you don't like it, well tough:
 
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-17/california-s-berkeley-bans-natural-gas-in-new-buildings

Of course, if there's one thing I've learned in my 60+ years on this planet, is that people vote with their feet!

Have to agree that's extreme.  Gotta have gas to cook. 

Dunno about heat in sunny CA.
 
If you gotta go electric, I hope that ain't burning coal.   (prolly gas though) 

(disclosure:  I am a stockholder in a couple of natural gas companies.  I've been a shareholder since gas was the "clean fuel".)

[rocker59]

Have to agree that's extreme.  Gotta have gas to cook. 

Dunno about heat in sunny CA.
   

I'm pretty sure Berkley, being on the bay, is cool and foggy like San Francisco.

Agreed about natural gas.  It's a well developed fuel supply, for cooking and heating. 

[Tusayan]

So the idea is to ban use of natural gas for heat, an application for which it is 100% efficient, and replace it with electric heat which will be generated by burning natural gas for conversion to electricity at 40% efficiency.  That means you burn 2-1/2 times the natural gas for the same heat produced in the home.  Only in Bezerkley is that logical... because it means the natural gas will be burned in Arizona and that doesn't count.

We are very lucky in the US to have inexpensive, domestic (in both senses) natural gas.

[Motormike]

"Bezerkley"  Now that's funny, I don't care who you are!

[LowRyter]

So the idea is to ban use of natural gas for heat, an application for which it is 100% efficient, and replace it with electric heat which will be generated by burning natural gas for conversion to electricity at 40% efficiency.  That means you burn 2-1/2 times the natural gas for the same heat produced in the home.  Only in Bezerkley is that logical... because it means the natural gas will be burned in Arizona and that doesn't count.

We are very lucky in the US to have inexpensive, domestic (in both senses) natural gas.

wait ....you're saying it's more efficient to have a gas flame in your furnace and water tanks, vs gas burning a huge boiler, steam running a dynamo, sending the power down the grid and running heat stips or a pump at the house ?

hmmmm

[Lannis]

wait ....you're saying it's more efficient to have a gas flame in your furnace and water tanks, vs gas burning a huge boiler, steam running a dynamo, sending the power down the grid and running heat stips or a pump at the house ?

hmmmm

I just had gas installed in my kitchen so I could have a gas cooktop and thus have the tools to be a gourmet cook like the guys on this list, and also installed a gas heater.

I couldn't bring myself, however, to install a 100% efficient ventless heater, where all of the combustion products and water vapor generated by the gas flame stay in my house and stay concentrated there.   I did a vented heater with a heat exchanger; a bit less efficient but not such a concentrated smell of gas all the time.    Even at the dealer, where they assured me that their demo heaters were perfectly adjusted, I can tell that the heater is venting into the room, not to mention having to have a de-humidifier to deal with the water ...

Lannis   

[bad Chad]

I believe it matters from how the town gets its power.  If it’s generated via solar, wind hydro or combination, it makes sense, right?

[Murray]

Thread drift there is a little thing called economies of scale works with engineering as well, one big power plant is a lot more efficent than a lot of very small ones with the same capacity. The ther aspect is if you are not going to do research and experimentation at universities and similar where are you going to do it?

[bad Chad]

Excellent point.

[Buckturgidson]

A second shot at a curmudgeonly old geezer opinion...

To me the saturated car and bike market is a symptom of the saturated ROADs problem, admittedly in the metro areas...

You're not gonna wanna ride, or drive, much of anything in the increasingly clogged hi ways, defying death and 18 wheelers. The casual rider of 2-5 k a year is deciding not too

Electric or IC, don't matter to me..

Agree. I would not have bikes without open spaces readily available for riding. That's part of the reason I moved to northern Nevada from Indy.

[Ncdan]

I was just going through Craig’s list in my neck of the woods and realized that I think I understand the reason for this “saturated market” there are over 600 listings and 160 of them are recent. 90% of them have the same thing in common.... they are listed at about 25- 50 higher than the normal thinking reasonable person would be willing to pay! A reasonable buyer is simply not going to pay the high book value unless there is something really special about the bike, to Witt: extremely low mileage showroom condition or collector bike.
One can list a motorcycle at any price they wish however if it is  ridiculous don’t be astonished if no one calls you.

[Lannis]

Thread drift there is a little thing called economies of scale works with engineering as well, one big power plant is a lot more efficent than a lot of very small ones with the same capacity.

There are a few exceptions to that generally true concept.

One is where gas is used for heating.   For a ventless heater, the efficiency is 100% - all of the heat, along with all of the combustion products, go straight to heating the house.

If you burned that same gas to make steam and turn a turbine and spin a dynamo and transmit the electricity, doesn't matter how big the plant is, you're losing 40% or so of the energy you started out with in the gas to heat losses elsewhere in the generating cycle.

Same is true for a gas cooktop or a gas water heater.   None of the heat ends up in boiler pipe insulation or dynamo bearings or resistance losses in a big wire, it all goes into what you're heating.

Lannis

[Tusayan]

If you burned that same gas to make steam and turn a turbine and spin a dynamo and transmit the electricity, doesn't matter how big the plant is, you're losing 40% or so of the energy you started out with in the gas to heat losses elsewhere in the generating cycle.

You lose 60%, the conversion efficiency by the process you describe is roughly 40% for a utility scale system so most of the heat produced by burning the gas is lost at the generating plant. You then get an additional small electrical resistive loss is getting the current to your house.

Gas burned in a house is turned to heat with virtually 100% efficiency.  The only loss is the very small pumping loss associated with getting the gas to your house. What you do with the heat is then under your control, if you open the doors on the house in the middle of winter you lose quite a bit of it 

The key issue is that you do not convert the heat energy when burning at your house, or undergo any conversion losses, the final product is intended to be heat.

[GearheadGrrrl]

Being a warm climate, Berkley can get by without natural gas. Naples, Florida is a bit warmer, and the demand for natural gas there is so low that their are no gas mains in much of the area. What gas mains there are were put in by the county to power generators to keep the sewers from backing up in a power failure.

[twowheeladdict]

I was just going through Craig’s list in my neck of the woods and realized that I think I understand the reason for this “saturated market” there are over 600 listings and 160 of them are recent. 90% of them have the same thing in common.... they are listed at about 25- 50 higher than the normal thinking reasonable person would be willing to pay! A reasonable buyer is simply not going to pay the high book value unless there is something really special about the bike, to Witt: extremely low mileage showroom condition or collector bike.
One can list a motorcycle at any price they wish however if it is  ridiculous don’t be astonished if no one calls you.

I always wonder if they eventually get sold or the person just gives up and removes the ad.  I've contacted a few and told them what the value was and what I was willing to pay and they just said "bugger off".  Cruisers are a dime a dozen from all manufacturers.  Seeing a triumph or ducati scrambler is rare, but that doesn't make them worth more than NADA. 

[Ncdan]

I always wonder if they eventually get sold or the person just gives up and removes the ad.  I've contacted a few and told them what the value was and what I was willing to pay and they just said "bugger off".  Cruisers are a dime a dozen from all manufacturers.  Seeing a triumph or ducati scrambler is rare, but that doesn't make them worth more than NADA.

I think they run it a few times then realize it they went to sell their bikes to just accept the best offer or the next offer. The key lies with the seller who is usually in one of three types.
Does he have to sell
Does he want to sell 
Does he not care if it sells or not
Personally if I really want the bike or any other items, I will give top book. Over top book and they can keep it and I’ll end the conversation with “good luck “

[twowheeladdict]

Personally if I really want the bike or any other items, I will give top book. Over top book and they can keep it and I’ll end the conversation with “good luck “

I as well.  Paid NADA for the '10 Café Classic.  Never saw one in the flesh and didn't think I would ever see another one.  Decent price for a 4 year old bike with super low miles.  But man did I watch the NADA value tank over the next 4 years.  Oh well.  Should have just kept it, but the V7III is so much more bike than that café classic.  That bike felt like 1965, while the V7III feels like 2018.

[larrys]

I just had gas installed in my kitchen so I could have a gas cooktop and thus have the tools to be a gourmet cook like the guys on this list, and also installed a gas heater.

I couldn't bring myself, however, to install a 100% efficient ventless heater, where all of the combustion products and water vapor generated by the gas flame stay in my house and stay concentrated there.   I did a vented heater with a heat exchanger; a bit less efficient but not such a concentrated smell of gas all the time.    Even at the dealer, where they assured me that their demo heaters were perfectly adjusted, I can tell that the heater is venting into the room, not to mention having to have a de-humidifier to deal with the water ...
Lannis

There's three kinds of gas heaters, ventless, vented, and direct vent. Ventless is as you said, combustion air from the room, gases vented into the room. It's the worst kind, they're not permitted at all in sleeping rooms. Vented gets the combustion air from the room, gases get vented outside the building. Direct vent gets combustion air from outside the building, and gases are vented outside the building. I would consider only a direct vented appliance, from a life safety perspective.
Larry

[Lannis]

Direct vent gets combustion air from outside the building, and gases are vented outside the building. I would consider only a direct vented appliance, from a life safety perspective.
Larry

That's the kind I've got, now that you describe it.   Two pipes running up inside the old chimney - one to draw combustion air, one to vent it.   About 25% of the heat goes out the vent, the rest stays in the room.

I can tell you that the gas company was selling the unvented type very hard, saying it was 80% of their installations.   I just didn't like the idea ....

Lannis

[Toecutter]

And to think I came into this thread looking for a discussion on where the motorcycle market it headed.

[DougG]

OK, we kind of wandered off into the weeds here.

The first IC vehicles had a stutter step beginning and took time to sort themselves out.  It took infrastructure to support them...oil drilling, refining, proper regulations, etc.  Electric vehicles will follow the same pattern/rules.  They will be oddities/curiosities/chosen by the few who believe in them, until the infrastructure supports them as well.  They will start to be successful in niche markets and when we finally move to sustainable electrical systems, (wind, tidal, water, solar, geothermal, proper transmission and storage strategies and a host of others), they will be the norm.  There are places for several energy sources...wood, petroleum, "green", nuclear, and whatever the future brings.  There is no 'one size fits all'. 
Remember, we already have viable electric/hybrid transportation systems trains, marine, automotive, etc.  We will eventually move toward sustainable electrical production, storage and transmission systems.  As that happens, I hope that our social, political and moral systems embrace them and decide to move forward...you know in your heart of heart of hearts that if we don't do this, someone else will...and we will buy all that wonderful stuff from them.

Be well,
DougG

[Lannis]

And to think I came into this thread looking for a discussion on where the motorcycle market it headed.

Well, that'll teach YOU .... 

[DougG]

Lannis,    Ain't it the truth...

DougG

[Ncdan]

Well what would anyone expect with a forum full
Of old geezers who can’t find their bikes in the Walmart parking lot.....on a good day and on a bad day can’t remember why they were at Walmart 😂😂😂😂

[DougG]

 Dan...