A saturated motorcycle market... what's on the horizon?

[Lannis]

I’m guessing the emergence of cold fusion will change things in a big way. One of the big government contractors has already claimed that a truck-portable cold fusion generator is on the horizon that can power a small town.

The bad news here is that "cold fusion" is in the same boat with "perpetual motion".   It's physically not possible, no more possible than burning water as fuel; everyone who has had a "breakthrough" for cold fusion has been a scammer trying to rope in investors.

I wish it were, but "fusion" is not an easy thing to do; the best guys in the business have been trying for 70 years.   No one in a garage lab or a kid's bedroom is going to invent a "fusion" process.

Remember that you heard it here, from Lannis, July 11, 2019.   We'll check back in in a year or two, search keyword #coldfusion.

Lannis

[s1120]

But what about performance?  I'm liking the 2020 Lincoln Aviator plug-in hybrid.  450 bhp, 600 lb/ft torque, and lots of combined range!

 

Really that's one of the best things about EV's...  Nothing is going to slam you into the seat like a correctly sized electric motor!!!  Unlike IC engines, its instant on!!!!

[Dilliw]

The bad news here is that "cold fusion" is in the same boat with "perpetual motion".   It's physically not possible, no more possible than burning water as fuel; everyone who has had a "breakthrough" for cold fusion has been a scammer trying to rope in investors.

I wish it were, but "fusion" is not an easy thing to do; the best guys in the business have been trying for 70 years.   No one in a garage lab or a kid's bedroom is going to invent a "fusion" process.

Remember that you heard it here, from Lannis, July 11, 2019.   We'll check back in in a year or two, search keyword #coldfusion.

Lannis

Come on you sound like an ex nuke guy or something...  And don't you know that the millions we spend on ITER every year is not to just provide some PI's from ORNL a fancy vacation in the South of France?

As for the future, just with cars the big gains for bikes will be in power transmission.  DFTV and other transmission technologies might save internal combustion but we will probably lose the clutch in the deal. 

[cliffrod]

Yeah, all those scammers at ORNL and Lochkheed Martin.  They're always hogging up all the patents-

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/19652/lockheed-martin-now-has-a-patent-for-its-potentially-world-changing-fusion-reactor

Maybe John Hendrix was talking about the winning an even bigger war from a city to be built on Black Oak Ridge.

[Lannis]

Yeah, all those scammers at ORNL and Lochkheed Martin.  They're always hogging up all the patents-

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/19652/lockheed-martin-now-has-a-patent-for-its-potentially-world-changing-fusion-reactor

Maybe John Hendrix was talking about the winning an even bigger war from a city to be built on Black Oak Ridge.

Before you start easing in the sarcasm, perhaps you might try figuring out the difference between "nuclear fusion", which is the process that runs the sun, that makes thermo-nuclear bombs work, and which MAY, if the reaction can be controlled with "Tokomak"-style magnetic fields (the ITER program to which Dillw refers) or with powerful laser beams actually come up with a usable energy yield someday (and it's been a 70 year process with lots of dead-ends) ....

... and "cold fusion", which comes up every year or so, where someone claims to actually get a fusion energy yield with two electrodes in a glass of water, or a kid working up a hydrolysis experiment in his basement, and which has attracted millions in venture capital ... which was the whole point to begin with.

To my claim that "cold fusion" will never be a thing, I'll add that I'm skeptical that a working, controlled fusion process that can actually be linked to energy-generating equipment will happen in the next 10 years.   Lockheed Martin is a big engineering company, but they've been wildly optimistic in their press releases before, and they commit as many bloomers as the rest of us!

#coldfusion post 2.

Lannis

[kirby1923]

Ah yes, and 'Zero Point energy and better yet? the Holographic Universe..(could explain missing or dark matter)!

That's what dreams are made of!

:-)

[rocker59]

Really that's one of the best things about EV's...  Nothing is going to slam you into the seat like a correctly sized electric motor!!!  Unlike IC engines, its instant on!!!!

Twin Turbo 3.0 V6 putting out 400 bhp and 400 lb/ft. 

The electric add-on to that engine provides an additonial 50 bhp and about 200 lb/ft.

[Lannis]

Ah yes, and 'Zero Point energy and better yet? the Holographic Universe..(could explain missing or dark matter)!

That's what dreams are made of!

:-)

Kzinti "molecular distortion batteries" and "gravity planers" would make a huge difference .....

Lannis

[kirby1923]

Kzinti "molecular distortion batteries" and "gravity planers" would make a huge difference .....

Lannis

The possibilities boggle the mind, I'm almost giddy...

Oh, its dinnertime, think I'll go and ponder the situation.

Over a nice glass of cabernet!

Anyway your stuff sounds more interesting than mine!!

:-)

[cliffrod]

Before you start easing in the sarcasm, perhaps you might try figuring out the difference between "nuclear fusion", which is the process that runs the sun, that makes thermo-nuclear bombs work, and which MAY, if the reaction can be controlled with "Tokomak"-style magnetic fields (the ITER program to which Dillw refers) or with powerful laser beams actually come up with a usable energy yield someday (and it's been a 70 year process with lots of dead-ends) ....

... and "cold fusion", which comes up every year or so, where someone claims to actually get a fusion energy yield with two electrodes in a glass of water, or a kid working up a hydrolysis experiment in his basement, and which has attracted millions in venture capital ... which was the whole point to begin with.

To my claim that "cold fusion" will never be a thing, I'll add that I'm skeptical that a working, controlled fusion process that can actually be linked to energy-generating equipment will happen in the next 10 years.   Lockheed Martin is a big engineering company, but they've been wildly optimistic in their press releases before, and they commit as many bloomers as the rest of us!

#coldfusion post 2.

Lannis

Darn it.  When I spilled my special glass of water while I was typing,  I forgot to include or even mention the word "cold".  Then I linked an article about a patent having nothing to do with cold fusion.   I was so close.

[LowRyter]

My goodness, this was about motorcycles and guessing that we might see more electric bikes or perhaps new paint jobs and luggage racks.   Now we're talking about nuclear fusion aircraft carriers and the holographic universe. 

Markers have been placed with long term challenges portending greatness and ridicule.

Gawd, we're a pompous bunch.

[bad Chad]

This is why Isis wants to kill us all!! 

[Sheepdog]

The bad news here is that "cold fusion" is in the same boat with "perpetual motion".   It's physically not possible, no more possible than burning water as fuel; everyone who has had a "breakthrough" for cold fusion has been a scammer trying to rope in investors.

I wish it were, but "fusion" is not an easy thing to do; the best guys in the business have been trying for 70 years.   No one in a garage lab or a kid's bedroom is going to invent a "fusion" process.

Remember that you heard it here, from Lannis, July 11, 2019.   We'll check back in in a year or two, search keyword #coldfusion.

Lannis

Lannis, you're right and I'm wrong. The term is Compact Fusion. Interesting site from Lockheed Martin:

https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/compact-fusion.html

[Testarossa]

In the nuclear power world, the word is that the practical fusion reactor is 20 years away and always will be.

[Diploman]

Since this thread has been thoroughly diverted from its original subject by a discussion of fusion - nuclear and "cold"- let me offer a couple of comments.

In 2002-2004, on loan from the State Department, I worked in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) as International Affairs Coordinator.  This was at the time the US was considering participation in the proposed International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project, a visionary effort seeking to build the world's first operable, sustaining nuclear fusion reactor, a goal which has eluded science for decades.  OSTP was the lead US Government office for this decision. After lengthy negotiations, the US decided to help build the reactor by joining an international consortium of seven of the world's leading scientific/industrial countries (joined since 2016 by an eighth partner, Australia).  A number of candidate sites were proposed, narrowed to two by the final selection process:  Rokkasho-Mura in northern Japan and Caderache in southern France.  Caderache won out in the end, principally because of the much better seismic stability of this region compared to Japan.

Construction of the ITER reactor facility began in 2010; the reactor complex is now well advanced and should be ready in 2020-21 to receive the TOKOMAK components and other reactor elements supplied by member countries.  Assembly will take several years, with first fusion plasma foreseen in late 2025.  The ITER reactor is the most complex, expensive and scientifically advanced international  cooperative project ever undertaken. If it performs as expected, this will represent the first step in a much longer process to harness nuclear fusion, which, if successful, could provide the world with a nearly limitless, practical supply of energy.  In contrast to today's nuclear fission-powered reactors,  nuclear fusion would be safe and environmentally friendly, producing no radioactive waste.   ITER is a very, very serious scientific experiment, designed by many of the world's most eminent nuclear physicists.  It represents a major commitment of talent, cooperation and resources to a project that many see as the world's best chance for a major advance in carbon-free energy and a much-needed means to attenuate the further accumulation of greenhouse gasses.  ITER, a long-term project which is not a ready subject for the nightly news cycle, is flying somewhat under the global news radar, but it is in reality one of the most important scientific projects of the 21st century.

I agree with Lannis:  "cold fusion" claims are nothing more than pseudo-science snake oil.

Apologies for amplifying the hijack of a thread that was in its own right interesting. 

[Lannis]

Pretty good update.  So what do you think about the possibility of an almost ready for prime time fusion reactor that will ride on the back of a truck?   Is Lockheed Martin blowing plasma up our respective arses for the quarterly report results or did they shortcut ITER with a breakthrough bigger than electricity?
Lannis

[Diploman]

LockMart has a huge pool of engineering talent and plentiful resources for research, but their expertise lies mainly in aerospace and weaponry.  Nuclear physics is normally not their game.  I think it unlikely but not impossible that they may have come upon a different approach to creating the interior-of-the-sun pressures and temperature needed to initiate and sustain fusion.  But it sounds far too easy and tidy to be real.  I will be skeptical of LockMart's claim until I see some verified results.  I still think ITER is the more promising and realistic path.  Once ITER is up and running and has proven sustained fusion, there will still be a long development road to the ultimate goal of commercial energy generation via fusion. 

[Lannis]

LockMart has a huge pool of engineering talent and plentiful resources for research, but their expertise lies mainly in aerospace and weaponry.  Nuclear physics is normally not their game.  I think it unlikely but not impossible that they may have come upon a different approach to creating the interior-of-the-sun pressures and temperature needed to initiate and sustain fusion.  But it sounds far too easy and tidy to be real.  I will be skeptical of LockMart's claim until I see some verified results.  I still think ITER is the more promising and realistic path.  Once ITER is up and running and has proven sustained fusion, there will still be a long development road to the ultimate goal of commercial energy generation via fusion.

Yup! 

[Lannis]

Lannis, you're right and I'm wrong. The term is Compact Fusion. Interesting site from Lockheed Martin:

https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/compact-fusion.html

It is interesting, but it's been tried for years - the engineering hurdles are horrendous, and from reading the site, it's still "vaporware" - good ideas and a lot of talent, perhaps, but nothing actually working yet.   Five year horizon is hugely optimistic ....

But as always, time will tell.

Lannis

[geodoc]

And as a segue:

[rocker59]

But what about the hydrogen fuel cells that were supposed to be powering cars by now?

[larrys]

But what about the hydrogen fuel cells that were supposed to be powering cars by now?

The problem is hydrogen. It takes too much energy to extract it from water or natural gas. Makes fuel cell technology not financially feasible. United Technologies here in CT had a big fuel cell research program. Converted a couple of bus's to fuel cell/electrical power, and did some fuel cells for building electrical power supplies. They scrapped the program just a couple of years ago because the numbers didn't work.
Wow, talk about thread drift!
Larry

[Lannis]

Wow, talk about thread drift!
Larry

I honestly don't see how this is thread drift at all.

By the second or third post in the thread, we were talking about electric motorcycles as part of the "saturated motorcycle market" alternatives.    If there's going to be electric vehicles, they have to be powered with something.   

So a lot of the discussion is "how practical is that?   How will we power them?"   It's directly ON topic, because just saying "EV" doesn't mean anything if it can't really be done without huge changes in how we live.

And we can't just keep bleating "Wind and Solar" like you-know-who in his bunker moving armored divisions around on the situation map that don't really exist.    Some of these technical solutions are hard, and nowhere near implementation for the size changes we're talking about in a market "saturated" with internal-combustion powered vehicles.

Now, if by the second page we were talking about whether Eleanor Powell or Cyd Charisse was the better dancer, or whether ground or whole thyme leaves were a better ingredient for a pork rub, THAT would be thread drift.   I don't see this as being thread drift at all; not only that, there's a lot of good stuff in here that's directly applicable to the future of the sport ...

Lannis

[rocker59]

The problem is hydrogen. It takes too much energy to extract it from water or natural gas. Makes fuel cell technology not financially feasible. United Technologies here in CT had a big fuel cell research program. Converted a couple of bus's to fuel cell/electrical power, and did some fuel cells for building electrical power supplies. They scrapped the program just a couple of years ago because the numbers didn't work.
Wow, talk about thread drift!
Larry

Yeah.  We were supposed to have these natural gas hydrogen producing plants the size of an A/C condenser at our house that would produce the hydrogen the charge up the fuel cells.  Looked great in the Popular Mechanics article's art work.

[Chuck in Indiana]

I honestly don't see how this is thread drift at all.

Agreed, and the depth and breadth of the Guzzi community never ceases to amaze me. 

[sdcr]

 Could be just Supply and Demand.

Too much supply, not enough demand, and Abra Ca Dabra less motorcycle sales.

[unclepete]

I don't see a silver lining for the dealers .
Quads , side by sides , watercraft , yes ; motorcycles no .
Motorcycles are not fun to operate in congested areas , and there are more congested areas now , and the areas are bigger .
The ' lure of the open road ' still exists for many , but there are fewer open roads .
For most , their bike is kind of a pet , not transportation .
Yesterday I rode my Guzzi down hwy70 to I-5 through Sacramento to Stockton . It was a pleasant ride down the Feather River canyon , hot in the valley but on I-5 through Sacramento it was a crawl . I split lanes when I could , but you can't always , so I'm stopped or nearly stopped many times on a 4 or 5 lane freeway in the July sun , thinking if I lived down here I would most likely not be commuting on a bike .
Decent cars cost a little more , and they use a little more gas , but they have much better climate control .
Down in the valley , I saw more bikes in the back of pickup trucks and on trailers , than I did on the road .
   

[Lannis]

Motorcycles are not fun to operate in congested areas , and there are more congested areas now , and the areas are bigger .
The ' lure of the open road ' still exists for many , but there are fewer open roads .
 

Having got back from a month-long tour of the country on a bike, coast to coast (well, almost, we missed California), I might suggest that maybe your experience is colored by riding on Southern California roads.

There are MASSIVE areas of the country where you won't see another car in an hour of riding.   You can ride for tens of thousands of miles on roads in the USA (not to mention Canada) that just seem deserted.    The roads I ride on here around my house don't have significantly more traffic than they did 50 years ago when I began riding them on a motorcycle.

Certainly there are areas in Florida and around Atlanta and Houston and Charlotte NC and the DC area that have turned into huge parking lots where there used to be open countryside.   But percentage-wise, that's a small part of the country.   Lots of people there, and they see that crowding and congestion that you describe, but that's sort of a lifestyle choice.   A large part of the reason that I picked to live where I live is because I enjoy the riding here, and that's always been a big part of my life.

What that all will do to the future of motorcycling, I don't know.  I do know that, with the majority of my riding having been on BSAs and Moto Guzzis over the last 20 years, the existence or non-existence of dealers, or the availability of new motorcycles, will have about zero impact on when, what, and how far I ride ....

Lannis

[unclepete]

I live in Northern California in a mountain town of 2000 . Even during the tourist season I can ride from my house to the next gas stop , and only put my feet down once at the stop sign bottom of hill . It is very pleasant here , and I can ride all day on uncrowded roads , stopping only for gas , or to stretch .
My point in the above post is that the congested areas are getting bigger and more congested . 20 years ago it was a breeze getting through Sacramento , now it is not .
Another way for me to get to Stockton was to go south through Truckee and Tahoe , get to hwy88 and down the hill , all nice 2 lane . During the summer months Tahoe is so crowded with tourists that it becomes nearly as bad .
The last few times I rode to southern California , I rode at night . 
   

[Tusayan]

The Italians main use of our motorcycles in urban.