Project Live Wire - Electric Harley Davidson merged threadfest

[rocker59]

If anyone thinks they are going to save money in the long run by buying a EV maybe seeing a good mathematician may be in order. 

Or, a mathmagician...

[alanp]

Most electric cars depreciate much more than the average car.  On a percentage basis, non-Tesla EVs depreciate at an almost unbelievable rate - 60-70% in the first two years versus 30% for conventional cars.  For example the little Fiats lose value at over $500 per month for the first two years.  Teslas are better on a percentage basis, but because they are so expensive they are still costly to own in terms of dollar value lost per month - in the range of $300-350 monthly depreciation.     

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1123583_beyond-tesla-electric-cars-lose-value-faster-than-other-vehicles

https://www.carfax.com/blog/car-depreciation

Of course the flip side to this is that if you're a used car buyer, an EV might be a good deal if you don't need the same utility as others who are avoiding buying them and in doing so pushing down their market value.

I have no quibble with your data, but it is very misleading because it ignores the tax incentives (like them or not, not wanting to debate that, just pointing out they exist). 
Pretty much any used EV on the market will have depreciated an extra $7500 (or much more in some states) due to the tax incentive that the original purchaser received and a used buyer is not eligible for.   For example, in Colorado that $500 per month over the first 2 years depreciation you cite would net to $0 depreciation for the original purchaser, who would have received the full depreciation amount in state and federal tax credits. 

[Tusayan]

Tax avoidance along with emotional appeal are the big drivers for EVs, but tax incentives (even including avoidance of fuel tax) will all disappear in the end, and of course not everybody can take advantage of current income tax incentives - 44% of the US population pays no Federal individual income tax.

On the other hand anybody can take advantage of a two year old EV now retaining only 40% of its new value, by buying used and keeping their existing car as well - so as not to pay the price in freedom of mobility and utility.  To me the ideal (adopted by a friend of mine) would be a pickup truck that’s mostly parked, a four door gasoline sedan plus a cheap $9K used electric car that you run for five years, have your employer recharge for free, and then toss.  At that point you could evaluate whether to repeat the cycle or whether the EV trend has by then died with phase out of the tax and employer incentives.

In my eyes it could end up being a kind of a rerun of what Europeans are doing with their Diesels right now. A friend who works for BMW in Germany was incentivized to buy a Diesel Mini a few years ago and is now being incentivized to dispose of it (back to BMW).  That’s one way to drive cheaply 

[bad Chad]

Dusty, or someone said it, “this is one of the stupidest threads ever “

Who saw anti-biotechs coming? 

[Lannis]

Dusty, or someone said it, “this is one of the stupidest threads ever “

Who saw anti-biotechs coming?

I don't even know what an anti-biotech IS, so it must not be having a horse/automobile impact on our lives.

The combined thread is 5 years old this month, and I don't see any differences yet .....

Lannis

[PJPR01]

I don't even know what an anti-biotech IS, so it must not be having a horse/automobile impact on our lives.

The combined thread is 5 years old this month, and I don't see any differences yet .....

Lannis

How can you say that...look at the growth in the sales of EV vehicles over the last 5 years and the number of charging stations that have been put into play in that same time.  There has been movement...it's not static by any means.

Back to Tusayan's comment on the Diesel...several years ago I found a beautiful very slightly used Passat TDI 6 speed manual...gorgeous car.  Bought it for $22K, used it for 2 years and put about 15K miles on it, and then VW bought it back from me for $29K due to the Diesel gate emissions fiasco.  That was a fantastic deal...but I do miss the car terribly...it was fantastic...torque for miles, could go 750 miles on a tank of fuel.  Quite impressive to see a Passat TDi get the same mileage as my Norge!

[Tusayan]

One percent market share to two percent market share is huge growth 

[LowRyter]

Yea you are right about the charging time thing buy I’m afraid that time limit you suggested is several years away. Also I’m not aware of any EV with a 300 mile range but admit there could be one. Can you offer further?

I've not read beyond the headline, I'll leave it to Lannis to poo poo it.   Tesla 370 mile range.

https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/24/18513899/tesla-model-s-x-range-upgrade-270-325-miles-supercharger-200kw

[LowRyter]

Range and cost are definitely factors.  But I actually think the range argument is WAY overblown (not overblown for everyone of course, but for literally tens of millions of families).  Case in point, like literally 99% of the 100's of homes home in my suburban-ish neighborhood, my wife and I have 2 cars.  It used to be 2 ICE cars, a Toyota Highlander and a Mazda3.  Now it's the Highlander and an electric Chevy Bolt.  Since we have purchased the Bolt, the Highlander's annual mileage has dropped by more than half.  We both like driving the Bolt way better than either the Highlander or the previous Mazda3 and only use the Highlander when we need to (long trip, pull a trailer, haul a bunch of stuff or people).  It rarely gets used, and sometimes sits in the garage for weeks without being touched. 
The Bolt has a range of 240 miles, and the times when that isn't adequate are very rare, just a handful of times a year.  I never even consider trying to charge the Bolt unless at home because the need for that just isn't there.  It charges overnight, and in reality, that takes me about 10 seconds, 5 to plug it in and 5 to unplug it.  On the rare occasions where we have a longer trip we can take the other car. 
Now of course, my circumstances aren't the same as everyone.  But my point is, having lived in suburbia for much of my life, I know there are many millions of people who's needs could met by a modern EV (people who don't already own one).
The biggest barriers seems to be cost, which is totally legit at this point, and range, which I think is mostly an imaginary problem for many many people.

I drove a Bolt on a test drive at the Auto Show last year and thought was pretty cool.  Fun to drive but in a novel way.  Better than both Fiats (but the Camaro 4 cyl Turbo was most impressive, that's a world class driver's car, better than a little Beemer). 

The Bolt was a barrel of fun, got right up and went.  Then I played with the regenerating brakes, kinda cool.  The dash, interior and everything was a new thing.  If I was purchasing a new car to take me to commute to work (I am retired), it would be top of the list.

[Lannis]

I've not read beyond the headline, I'll leave it to Lannis to poo poo it.   Tesla 370 mile range.

https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/24/18513899/tesla-model-s-x-range-upgrade-270-325-miles-supercharger-200kw

Sure.  Not to disappoint you, you understand.

"EV range" is the new "Horsepower Ratings".    Independent tests dyno'ed bike horsepower at the rear wheel - manufacturers and shills took it at the piston crown, apparently. 

As always, we'll see.

Lannis

[Rough Edge racing]

 When the novelity of an electric street bike wears off...You are left with just another minimal operator skill vehicle like a leisure power  boat...

[alanp]

Sure.  Not to disappoint you, you understand.

"EV range" is the new "Horsepower Ratings".    Independent tests dyno'ed bike horsepower at the rear wheel - manufacturers and shills took it at the piston crown, apparently. 

As always, we'll see.

Lannis

Just trying to keep some of the things in this thread reality based.  EV range is definitely NOT the new horsepower rating.  EV Range is based on an EPA test, and manufacturers don't just get to claim it, same as mpg ratings for ICE vehicles.  Horsepower is something a manufacturer can just claim without independent verification.
The Chevy Bolt has a published range of 238 miles.  That is about right on average.  It does vary with driving conditions of course, but I have gone as far as 280 miles doing nothing special.  You get better range in moderate weather (little need for heat or AC), and if speed is generally below 60 mph.   

[Lannis]

Just trying to keep some of the things in this thread reality based.  EV range is definitely NOT the new horsepower rating.  EV Range is based on an EPA test, and manufacturers don't just get to claim it, same as mpg ratings for ICE vehicles. 

Most of the ranges I've seen to date (if they even publish one) are manufacturers and magazine testers claims, not some sort of official "EPA" rating.    Not to mention that I've never found "EPA" mileage ratings to be particularly accurate in the real world. 

The State of California knows that these vehicles cause cancer and reproductive harm, like my computer mouse, so I have great confidence in them.

But once enough of them get on the road to get some real data, and not just magazine articles, we'll see.

Lannis

[Testarossa]

Some may find this newsletter interesting. It's a new publication from the Cycle World folks. They're thrashing around for a viable business model.  https://www.cyclevolta.com/

Disclaimer: I've now built four EVs: My Yamaha TA125 conversion, which will soon be on the road again with salvaged Prius batteries, and a couple of clunker mountain bikes with generic Chinese hub motors (count is four because I upgraded Gail's bike from 36 volts and 250 watts to 48 volts and 500 watts). In good weather we use the bikes often for shopping trips and live-music events in town -- I just sling a couple of camp chairs across my back and we can ride straight into the city park and we have enough carrying capacity to load up a picnic including a small cooler. I'm sold on the convenience, user-friendliness, economy and low maintenance of EVs. If we still lived in the city and had to commute, I'd have an e-car. Of course it's entirely impractical for trips, including my frequent ski travel. Hence the Subaru and AWD van in the family.




Yamaha photo taken in test-wired mode -- I cleaned it up later to hide the mess.

[alanp]

Most of the ranges I've seen to date (if they even publish one) are manufacturers and magazine testers claims, not some sort of official "EPA" rating.    Not to mention that I've never found "EPA" mileage ratings to be particularly accurate in the real world. 

The State of California knows that these vehicles cause cancer and reproductive harm, like my computer mouse, so I have great confidence in them.

But once enough of them get on the road to get some real data, and not just magazine articles, we'll see.

Lannis,
The "some sort of official EPA rating" is on the window sticker of every car sold in the US.  And "accuracy in the real world" is a red herring.  There are way too many variables in the real world, driver being one of the biggest, and what is "accurate" for you probably won't be for me.  The ratings are comparable car to car, which is the key to their relevance.

What I was contesting was your statement that "EV range" is the new "horsepower rating". This is a false comparison.  EV range is based on standardized third party testing, and is comparable vehicle to vehicle.  HP ratings are not standardized and are not generally third party generated.

[twowheeladdict]

I have no quibble with your data, but it is very misleading because it ignores the tax incentives (like them or not, not wanting to debate that, just pointing out they exist). 
Pretty much any used EV on the market will have depreciated an extra $7500 (or much more in some states) due to the tax incentive that the original purchaser received and a used buyer is not eligible for.   For example, in Colorado that $500 per month over the first 2 years depreciation you cite would net to $0 depreciation for the original purchaser, who would have received the full depreciation amount in state and federal tax credits.

I was looking to buy a zero dual sport a while ago and then I found out that I will pay more for one in Tennessee than any other state because there are no incentives.  On principal I will not pay more for something than someone else pays. 

[Rough Edge racing]

I was looking to buy a zero dual sport a while ago and then I found out that I will pay more for one in Tennessee than any other state because there are no incentives.  On principal I will not pay more for something than someone else pays.

 By incentives do you mean a price reduction because of gov't money? Or does the manufactuer just gove a discount?

[twowheeladdict]

By incentives do you mean a price reduction because of gov't money? Or does the manufactuer just gove a discount?

The price reduction because of tax payer money. 

[oldbike54]

 Fellas , you know the drill .

 Dusty

[bad Chad]

Somebody was right, said this “the stupidest thread ever “, I think it was Dusty.

[tazio]

Not even close

[Lannis]

 I'm sold on the convenience, user-friendliness, economy and low maintenance of EVs. If we still lived in the city and had to commute, I'd have an e-car. Of course it's entirely impractical for trips, including my frequent ski travel. Hence the Subaru and AWD van in the family.

You sound like like an excellent case-study on the ownership of IC vs electric vehicles.

You're an expert (as I know) on solar power and alternative energy sources.   You've built your own electric motorcycles.   You're sold on the convenience, user-friendliness, economy, and low maintenance of EVs.   You've GOT to be in the top 1% of "likely, informed, unbiased, ready-to-buy, and able-to-buy" when it comes to EVs.

And yet you don't own one, despite their universal availability.   

What does that bode for the "rest of us"?   What will it take?

Lannis

[Testarossa]

And yet you don't own one, despite their universal availability.   

When the Subaru wears out (250,000 miles from now) we'll acquire a used EV, though we'll need AWD because of the steep snowy road onto our mesa (we'd have one now except I spend a lot of money on the motorcycle herd). Several of our neighbors do own EVs -- they're great for the two-mile trip into town. For that purpose a golf cart would do nicely and one of our neighbors has one, though of course it's not street legal, hence our electric bikes. The EV owners all have solar arrays too, so free fuel. Colorado -- a purple oil/gas/coal mining state -- offers incentives for EV and solar purchases. Our public utilities have to meet a 30% renewable energy standard in 2020, rural co-ops 20%.

About 100 local salaries come out of the coal mine about eight miles upstream, and most working folks around here need pickup trucks for real. We are decidedly not San Francisco.

[Lannis]

When the Subaru wears out (250,000 miles from now) we'll acquire a used EV, though we'll need AWD because of the steep snowy road onto our mesa (we'd have one now except I spend a lot of money on the motorcycle herd). Several of our neighbors do own EVs -- they're great for the two-mile trip into town.....

OK, but despite the enthusiasm for EVs among this gearhead Guzzi crowd here (700+ strong according to the "Check In" thread estimates), I've gone back and done as much looking as I can at 2:30 in the morning, and I only see that a couple of folks here actually own electric cars.   Like 2.

Everyone else knows someone, or is gonna get one someday, or is about to get one, or sees more and more of them, or is waiting for the range to get fixed, or waiting to figure out what to do with the batteries when they're dead, or figure out how to get a charge in the middle of the day, or something.    Just doesn't have that "real" feeling where a veritable tsunami of EVs is coming, and we'd better get ready 'cause this trend is rampin' and stampin' and hollerin' for meat ....

But that's been said enough times.   Just wanted to respond to what I considered credible info, analysis and experience.

Lannis

[Darren Williams]

At work, over half our fork truck fleet has gone electric from propane. As we replace them when they wear out, they will be replaced by electric. Cost per hour for electric is much less according to our maintenance departments spreadsheets. They track purchase price, maintenance costs and fuel consumption, along with down time. Operators also prefer them over the IC propane trucks.

[Rough Edge racing]

 Electric vehicles are liked more so by those who often buy new vehicles...the other half, including me, drive well used vehicles and bikes would never buy something new, aka, expensive that can't be paid for with cash...

[Ncdan]

Ok guys, we naysayers are in check. Here is the new EV Ford F-150 that is yo he released in two years. You know when the Ford F-150 goes slot car our beloved internal combustion engine is history🥵 lol I love this forum, it’s better than watching my grandkids fuss:)

[oldbike54]

Ok guys, we naysayers are in check. Here is the new EV Ford F-150 that is yo he released in two years. You know when the Ford F-150 goes slot car our beloved internal combustion engine is history🥵 lol I love this forum, it’s better than watching my grandkids fuss:)

 Well , that'll cause some of these old hidebound types to have an apoplectic fit .

 Dusty

[Lannis]

At work, over half our fork truck fleet has gone electric from propane. As we replace them when they wear out, they will be replaced by electric. Cost per hour for electric is much less according to our maintenance departments spreadsheets. They track purchase price, maintenance costs and fuel consumption, along with down time. Operators also prefer them over the IC propane trucks.

Absolutely.   We had a fleet of 20 fork lifts in the shipping/receiving area of the plant I used to manage, and electric had propane beat all to pieces.     Use them inside or out with no smell or CO problems, easy to operate, less fire danger.

Never were more than about 600 yards from a charging station; when one ran low on juice, park it at the charging station and hop on another one and go another 8 hours while the first one charged for the next-but-one shift.    Excellent application.

Lannis

[Ncdan]

Forgot to show the picture. That’s what happens when in a panic over EV’s😂


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