Wildguzzi.com
General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: Johncolleary on May 15, 2019, 09:05:55 AM
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Interesting numbers
https://www.revzilla.com/common-tread/which-states-have-the-most-motorcycle-fatalities
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I can't see any pattern there that squares with what I see.
I know that when I ride from Virginia to Ohio, which I do two or three times a year, I seem to be passing 5 times as many motorcyclists in Ohio as I do in Virginia and West Virginia, none of them are wearing helmets, and there's a lot of built-up and industrial areas for truck traffic. Riding along the river from Moundsville WV to East Liverpool on OH7, I'll pass hundreds of bikes.
I would have thought that Ohio's rate would be higher, but it's not. Oh well, learn something new every day.
Lannis
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The most interesting thing to me was how many registered motorcycles are in MONTANA!
#50 - Montana - 306,655 registered - 23 deaths - .075 per 10,000 registered.
Population Ranked 43rd - Total 1,062,305 (2018)
Compare that to Texas:
#2 - Texas - 364,690 registered - 490 deaths - 13.44 per 10,000 registered.
Population Ranked 2nd - Total 28,701,845 (2018)
Deaths per mile traveled would be much better information...
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I can't see any pattern there that squares with what I see.
I know that when I ride from Virginia to Ohio, which I do two or three times a year, I seem to be passing 5 times as many motorcyclists in Ohio as I do in Virginia and West Virginia, none of them are wearing helmets, and there's a lot of built-up and industrial areas for truck traffic. Riding along the river from Moundsville WV to East Liverpool on OH7, I'll pass hundreds of bikes.
I would have thought that Ohio's rate would be higher, but it's not. Oh well, learn something new every day.
Lannis
Climate. Warmer states have more fatalities
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I seem to recall reading that the state of Mississippi also has the lowest average IQ in the nation. Coincidence?
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I seem to recall reading that the state of Mississippi also has the lowest average IQ in the nation. Coincidence?
National Average is 98. The top ain't that high at 104.3, so I'll say it's not a factor...
Why do you think California's average IQ is so low?
Massachusetts 104.3
New Hampshire 104.2
North Dakota 103.8
Vermont 103.8
Minnesota 103.7
Maine 103.4
Montana 103.4
Iowa 103.2
Connecticut 103.1
Wisconsin 102.9
Kansas 102.8
New Jersey 102.8
South Dakota 102.8
Wyoming 102.4
Nebraska 102.3
Virginia 101.9
Washington 101.9
Ohio 101.8
Indiana 101.7
Colorado 101.6
Pennsylvania 101.5
Idaho 101.4
Oregon 101.2
Utah 101.1
Missouri 101
New York 100.7
Michigan 100.5
Delaware 100.4
North Carolina 100.2
Texas 100
Illinois 99.9
Maryland 99.7
Rhode Island 99.5
Kentucky 99.4
Oklahoma 99.3
Alaska 99
West Virginia 98.7
Florida 98.4
South Carolina 98.4
Georgia 98
Tennessee 97.7
Arkansas 97.5
Arizona 97.4
Nevada 96.5
Alabama 95.7
New Mexico 95.7
Hawaii 95.6
California 95.5
Louisiana 95.3
Mississippi 94.2
https://www.inc.com/bill-murphy-jr/we-compared-average-iq-score-in-all-50-states-results-are-eye-opening.html
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Don't remember where , but read a few years back that the fatality rates in non-mandatory helmet law states don't see any measurable rise from states with mandatory helmet laws for all riders . Go figure :huh:
Somewhat surprising to see Oklahoma kinda mid pack in fatality rates and IQ .
Dusty
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I’d say all the states at the low end of IQ have a poor public education system and a high percentage of people who don’t value education. I was born and raised in Iowa. I can tell you with certainty the average Iowan gets a much better primary/secondary education than the average Californian. Urban poverty and the associated lack of parenting is a big factor in California.
Back to the basic idea that stupidity is not a factor in many motorcycle crashes/fatalities, you were saying?
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Here's a deep dive into the 2012 numbers. I assume that 2018 is in line:
https://www.rideapart.com/articles/255170/what-the-latest-nhtsa-fatality-stats-reveal-about-motorcycle-safety/
Mississippi and Ohio may have had fewer rider deaths in 2011 at 53 and 157 respectively, but both states had the national highest percentage of alcohol-impaired deaths at 40% of all motorcycle fatalities. (Vermont was actually higher at 63% but with only eight riders killed in 2011).
Here in SC (No. 3 on the list) everyone has an opinion on helmets, but no one bats an eye at all of the bikes in front of all of the bars every night.
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Riding under the influence = stupid strikes again. A sad fact of motorcycle fatalities is that most of them could be avoided if people would simply employ common sense and a basic understanding of the physics of speed and impact. Stupid kills. I’ve seen it on the LA freeways more times than I care to count.
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Not surprised by Texas being no 2. I have lived in California, Arizona, and now Texas. Houston has some of the most agressive, inconsiderate and risk taking drivers i have personally observered on two and 4 wheels.
Turn signals dont exist and everyone reads the speed limit as 30 miles above whatever it is.
And yes i have driven in LA and Phoenix
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(Vermont was actually higher at 63% but with only eight riders killed in 2011).
So, five of the eight riders killed were alchohol impaired. That's pretty insane.
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I seem to recall reading that the state of Mississippi also has the lowest average IQ in the nation. Coincidence?
I am loathe to make statements about the relative intelligence of the residents in a different state . IQ tests are funny things , not always indicative of much . Try taking a couple of different tests , they can and often are weighted in such a way that the results vary wildly .
Dusty
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Back to the basic idea that stupidity is not a factor in many motorcycle crashes/fatalities, you were saying?
Stupid decisions are a factor, sure. But no correlation to "average IQ in the State". Smart people make stupid decisions everyday. I see it at work, and am constantly amazed.
It would be interesting to know what the average IQ of motorcycle riders is. And, the average IQ of those who are killed while riding. If you had those numbers, you'd have something.
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So, five of the eight riders killed were alchohol impaired. That's pretty insane.
Or maybe it should be sort of a relief for the rest of us?
I seem to recall from my local figures (Norway) that when you eliminate the deaths of riders who were intoxicated, or racing on public roads, or lacking experience - there weren't that many left.
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Stupid decisions are a factor, sure. But no correlation to "average IQ in the State". Smart people make stupid decisions everyday. I see it at work, and am constantly amazed.
It would be interesting to know what the average IQ of motorcycle riders is. And, the average IQ of those who are killed while riding. If you had those numbers, you'd have something.
This 100%
The reverse is also true , people who might not possess high intelligence do the smart thing .
"Sometimes we all do things that , well , just don't make no sense" . From Forrest Gump .
Dusty
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When is the last time any of us have had an IQ test .
Where are these numbers coming from ?
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When is the last time any of us have had an IQ test .
Where are these numbers coming from ?
I posted the link in my previous post. Feel free to click it. It was just something I Googled up.
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Or maybe it should be sort of a relief for the rest of us?
I agree with this. I used to pay closer attention to local motorcycle accidents and deaths. Very large number of them happened after dark with the rider impaired.
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If I were to be asked I would have predicted California to be number one. Half the state has warm temps, traffic is insane, huge motorcycle population. Crowded and dangerous Interstates. Wildly fun but dangerous mountain roads. It's beyond me why their rate is not higher.
Bill
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The most interesting thing to me was how many registered motorcycles are in MONTANA!
#50 - Montana - 306,655 registered - 23 deaths - .075 per 10,000 registered.
Population Ranked 43rd - Total 1,062,305 (2018)
Compare that to Texas:
#2 - Texas - 364,690 registered - 490 deaths - 13.44 per 10,000 registered.
Population Ranked 2nd - Total 28,701,845 (2018)
Deaths per mile traveled would be much better information...
That right there is unbelievable. Montana has almost as many registered motorcycles as Texas with 1/28th the population and way worse weather????
Seriously, that is not believable and calls all of the data in question.
Unless of course some rich guy in Montana has a big barn with 200,000 or so motorcycles in it.
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If I were to be asked I would have predicted California to be number one. Half the state has warm temps, traffic is insane, huge motorcycle population. Crowded and dangerous Interstates. Wildly fun but dangerous mountain roads. It's beyond me why their rate is not higher.
Bill
For every dumb kid riding wheelies on the freeway, we have a hundred smart riders who understand safety and hone their riding skills year round. Also, the dumbest among us generally don’t ride.
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That right there is unbelievable. Montana has almost as many registered motorcycles as Texas with 1/28th the population and way worse weather????
Seriously, that is not believable and calls all of the data in question.
Unless of course some rich guy in Montana has a big barn with 200,000 or so motorcycles in it.
In 1997 Montana had 17,978 registered motorcyles.
In 2004 it was 34,433
In 2013 it was 171,085.
In 2018 it was 306,655.
Yep, something's up!
The scam works like this: You hire a Montana law firm to form a corporation or limited liability company (LLC) for you. You own the LLC outright. Your exotic or expensive car or RV is purchased by your LLC. The LLC registers and plates the vehicle in Montana. You pay no sales or use tax and then bring your car to whatever state you live in and drive the vehicle with tax-free impunity. The only downside is that you have to put an ugly Montana plate on your vehicle. But hey - you saved thousands of dollars!
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In 1997 Montana had 17,978 registered motorcyles.
In 2004 it was 34,433
In 2013 it was 171,085.
In 2018 it was 306,655.
Yep, something's up!
The scam works like this: You hire a Montana law firm to form a corporation or limited liability company (LLC) for you. You own the LLC outright. Your exotic or expensive car or RV is purchased by your LLC. The LLC registers and plates the vehicle in Montana. You pay no sales or use tax and then bring your car to whatever state you live in and drive the vehicle with tax-free impunity. The only downside is that you have to put an ugly Montana plate on your vehicle. But hey - you saved thousands of dollars!
Interesting , does this also mean you need a Montana DL ? Sounds like a way to create suspicion .
Dusty
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And what about insurance, does the bike or car also get insurance from the state it’s registered in? I think the officer who pulls you over for whatever might wonder about your bike and insurance being different than your home address.
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Maybe some one said this? NY for example has mores bike than Texas with 1/3 the fatalities.. Most of NY has a long winter with bikes parked while many in Texas may ride most of the winter...Riders in warm states might be less likely to wear protection, especially leather...Some states don't have helmet laws......Is any of this factored in?
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And what about insurance, does the bike or car also get insurance from the state it’s registered in? I think the officer who pulls you over for whatever might wonder about your bike and insurance being different than your home address.
Our son has kept his SC tag in Connecticut for 3 years now but other states aren't as generous. According to this article your "agent" for your LLC in Montana will know which company to insure with.
https://www.autotrader.com/car-news/heres-why-so-many-exotic-cars-have-montana-license-256721
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I'm afraid the Montana data is bogus. My family has a bit of property in Montana and its is common for people to get an LLC in MT to beat the cost of registration of MCs which after 15 years? you don't have to pay any registration fees and the tags become permanent.
Also the cost of registration of RVs is very low compared to states like CA. easy to hire a company to set up an LLC.
Cost is about $100 a year to maintain an LLC and adress in Montana.
So the registration # for rec vehicles is inflated 'cause most are never in MT.
There are most likely many other factors that render this study off by a large amount..
SD is another state that is used for the same purpose.
More than one way to skin a cat....
:-)
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Numbers for my state Florida are increased cuz we ride 12 months AND host 2 ginormous drunken multi-week events in Daytona- Bike week & Biketoberfest. Most attendees drink non-stop & ride from bar to bar. The medical professionals refer to it as "Organ Donor week".
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I find it amazing that when I go riding if I stop somewhere for an Iced Tea all of the bikers sitting guzzling beer and then sharing the road with me. I just shake my head and wonder how they make it home.
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It would be interesting to know what the average IQ of motorcycle riders is. And, the average IQ of those who are killed while riding. If you had those numbers, you'd have something.
IQ? Not so fast. I highly recommend you read "The MisMeasure of Man" by Stephen Jay Gould. There was a brilliant mind cut short by the big C.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mismeasure_of_Man (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mismeasure_of_Man)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Jay_Gould (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Jay_Gould)
Patrick Hayes
Fremont CA
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IQ? Not so fast. I highly recommend you read "The MisMeasure of Man" by Stephen Jay Gould. There was a brilliant mind cut short by the big C.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mismeasure_of_Man (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mismeasure_of_Man)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Jay_Gould (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Jay_Gould)
Patrick Hayes
Fremont CA
I recommend reading it too, so you can get an idea of how religious fanaticism (his own religion) can warp even a brilliant mind. Almost nothing he proposed is actually working out when faced with reality, and it won't be long before .....
But I digress. I doubt seriously if the sample size and method will show IQ to be a factor in motorcycle fatalities. I agree with the 1) Riding Weather and 2) Tendency to alcohol while riding (which as we all know has little relation to IQ and more to addiction) can explain most of the differences we see.
Lannis
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I find it amazing that when I go riding if I stop somewhere for an Iced Tea all of the bikers sitting guzzling beer and then sharing the road with me. I just shake my head and wonder how they make it home.
I don't drink at all while I'm on the road. I will say, though, after many thousands of mile riding in England with English friends, that it is considered perfectly normal and acceptable even among the more virulent safety-centered guys, to stop and have 1 pint of ale in the middle of a ride. I don't know what effect a pint of hand-pulled ale has on one's BAC, but it can't be much, because I've never seen any change in any Englishman's behavior after that.
I don't recommend it, though. Too many people have no control over what they imbibe, and it'll go wrong somewhere ....
Lannis
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I have 2 close acquaintances who have had serious accidents. The first after having some drinks, driving at dark has no recollection as to why he ran off road and hit a mail box. He had no helmet on or protective gear and suffered permanent brain damage. The second was on a group ride, no helmet or gear. He had made comments that he had tires with very little tread left. On an extremely twisty road, riding a heavy cruiser, he got caught in the rain, slid around a corner and fell in the oncoming lane where a car struck him and killed him. Both accidents could have been prevented I believe. a very dangerous thing we do and if we throw caution to the wind it makes it all the more dangerous. Generally speaking I think we who ride have a bit of daredevil in us. A cautious person probably wouldn't be participating in our sport. This mindset makes some of us take chances beyond what is safe and practical.
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I don't drink at all while I'm on the road. I will say, though, after many thousands of mile riding in England with English friends, that it is considered perfectly normal and acceptable even among the more virulent safety-centered guys, to stop and have 1 pint of ale in the middle of a ride. I don't know what effect a pint of hand-pulled ale has on one's BAC, but it can't be much, because I've never seen any change in any Englishman's behavior after that.
I don't recommend it, though. Too many people have no control over what they imbibe, and it'll go wrong somewhere ....
Lannis
I'm no saint and will take a pint for lunch. Hey sometimes I don't wear all of my gear either. :copcar:
I do adhere to the one per hour rule however; with the bike there's no need to rush and with the car it's easy to hand the keys to Kim.
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I'm no saint and will take a pint for lunch.....
Well, now, just because I don't drink at all on the road doesn't imply that I consider myself a "saint". My falls from the straight and narrow are in many different directions .... !
Lannis
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More stats on helmet law states, and what happens when those laws change:
https://www.iihs.org/topics/motorcycles#helmet-laws
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Yeah well I dispute any "studies" that do not show California and other megalopolis states as not being a #1 killer for motorcyclists. People should just spend some "quality time" commuting in LA or SF or San Jose or Berkeley and then tell me what they think.
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Well, now, just because I don't drink at all on the road doesn't imply that I consider myself a "saint". My falls from the straight and narrow are in many different directions .... !
Lannis
Yes they are!!!! :evil:
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How can NH possibly be that low? 5 or 6 people die every year during Bike Week alone.
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I’d say all the states at the low end of IQ have a poor public education system and a high percentage of people who don’t value education. I was born and raised in Iowa. I can tell you with certainty the average Iowan gets a much better primary/secondary education than the average Californian. Urban poverty and the associated lack of parenting is a big factor in California.
Back to the basic idea that stupidity is not a factor in many motorcycle crashes/fatalities, you were saying?
IQ and education are two completely different measurements. One's IQ does not measurably increase with more, or "better" education.
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I'll bet Finding a Chi square value on the IQ numbers by state will show that the state values are not significantly different from each other - any differences are just due to random chance.
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IQ and education are two completely different measurements. One's IQ does not measurably increase with more, or "better" education.
You’re completely wrong. Have a read:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29911926 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29911926)
https://psychcentral.com/news/2018/06/24/study-shows-education-boosts-iq/136418.html (https://psychcentral.com/news/2018/06/24/study-shows-education-boosts-iq/136418.html)
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I would hope that DWI is reduced with the younger generation. Designated drivers, zero tolerance, and other social influences have hopefully helped. It's a stupid way to die, and to risk killing others is morally wrong..
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I would hope that DWI is reduced with the younger generation. Designated drivers, zero tolerance, and other social influences have hopefully helped. It's a stupid way to die, and to risk killing others is morally wrong..
I suggest that the lower number of DWIs has been replaced with an even higher number of DWT (texting). All the things you mentioned, including the reduction in "social acceptability" of drunk driving that helped Foster Brooks' and Dean Martin's careers so much, has been a help.
But texting while driving is still completely socially acceptable, so much so that I have heard a mother berate her son for not returning her message while he was driving, telling him that he needed to learn to "multi-task" like she did. There's no "moral" issues for texters, since nobody but them understands that their time is SO ******* important compared to your life potential lost in a car wreck, that they HAVE to text and talk. Not a moral issue at all to them, just amazement that you would think that they would stop texting and driving ....
Lannis
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I'll bet Finding a Chi square value on the IQ numbers by state will show that the state values are not significantly different from each other - any differences are just due to random chance.
I wish I had the IQ to comprehend that!
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I'll bet Finding a Chi square value on the IQ numbers by state will show that the state values are not significantly different from each other - any differences are just due to random chance.
I NEVER post here as I could never be as wise and funny as most of the commenters on this board but I love reading so much here. But for once I have something to say! :shocked: As a psychologist (clinical, not practicing), I can tell you it wouldn't a chi-square. It could be an ANOVA, as CHI square is for categorical data. IQ is presumed to be continuous data--interval-scale, in fact. So, parametric tests like ANOVA can be used. However, you would have 50 levels of the independent variable and ANOVA is an omnibus test, so. . .to find any significant difference, you'd have to do 1,225 pairwise comparisons for a Type I error rate of. . .out of this world. There are more sophisticated statistical techniques for modeling differences across lots of groups like 50 states, but anyway. Enough stats.
The larger problem in any research idea like this is sampling and measurement. First, to my knowledge, nobody has a great epidemiological data set of intelligence scores for any state, let alone all 50--i.e., intelligence scores from a large, well-validated and reliable test using a proper random stratified sample of the population. Most "IQ" scores you see from states are from online junk tests and the like, which don't correlate all that well with actual intelligence tests, like the Wechsler or Stanford-Binet tests (and yes, education does influence intelligence for those wondering--see crystallized versus fluid intelligence, both of which intelligence tests measure).
So, this starts with a sample that is really biased, and then uses measures that aren't valid or reliable, and you get some seriously compromised data. I think the question of "do certain state populations exhibit lower scores on standardized measures of intelligence?" is virtually unknowable based on pragmatic concerns. If somebody wants to spend $100 million to answer this question, I would be happy to be your Principal Investigator. :grin:
I suspect that if you did the work and tested large segments of the population stratified by state, and the sampling regime was sophisticated enough to get you a representative sample, you would find differences--primarily because some states have far more educated populaces than others, and income does relate to intelligence for all sorts of obvious reasons at the population level (I'm broke, so obviously don't transfer this inference to the case level). But that's me hypothesizing and nothing more.
And as for making mistakes, I whole-heartedly agree with Dusty. Smart people make mistakes ALL the time. Most motorcyclists know that accidents don't happen as often in the first year of riding. Old studies showed it was in the second to third, after complacency set in. For great case studies on this, you don't have to look far--just check out general aviation accident investigations (youtube has lots of fascinating ones that can serve as cautionary tales of judgment failure that translate really well to motorcycling). You'll find lots of folks of likely well above-average intelligence who, through a chain of poor decisions, ended up dying of complacency. One youtube pilot said once after aborting a flight for weather, "In aviation, you don't have to be anywhere. You just have to be safe." Jay Leno said the best advice he ever got on riding a motorcycle was to never ride your bike when you need to be somewhere at a certain time.
And finally, just because this whole topic got me thinking about safety, Proficient Motorcycling is the book that changed me forever in terms of how I think about my riding and safety. :bike-037:
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^^^ Words from a real expert , thanks Fulton Cali :bow:
Dusty
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I am loathe to make statements about the relative intelligence of the residents in a different state . IQ tests are funny things , not always indicative of much . Try taking a couple of different tests , they can and often are weighted in such a way that the results vary wildly .
Dusty
I agree. Give those tests in Spanish instead of English and watch the results. English as a 1st language is not an indication of intelligence. Too many variables. And I sort of remember from the famous Hurt report that accidents were most likely in the 1st 6 months of becoming a rider. Newbies. I could be wrong on that one.
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Last post was mine, not my son Chris. He logged on at my house and I failed to notice. :violent1:
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I agree. Give those tests in Spanish instead of English and watch the results. English as a 1st language is not an indication of intelligence. Too many variables. And I sort of remember from the famous Hurt report that accidents were most likely in the 1st 6 months of becoming a rider. Newbies. I could be wrong on that one.
You're probably thinking of this little bit from the Hurt Report: More than half of the accident-involved motorcycle riders had less than 5 months experience on the accident motorcycle, although the total street riding experience was almost 3 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_findings_in_the_Hurt_Report (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_findings_in_the_Hurt_Report)
The overall experience curve tends to suggest that newbies aren't the issue--brand new folks are pretty cautious. It's when folks get a little complacent that things go wrong.
David