Wildguzzi.com
General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: willowstreetguzziguy on July 05, 2019, 05:04:41 PM
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With todays motorcycles lasting longer and fewer people taking up the sport, a ton of used bikes are out there for sale everywhere... somethings got to happen! What's on the horizon...
Used bike prices plummet?
Mfgrs drastically reduce new bike prices?
A reduction of the number of models offered by each mfgr?
Some mfgrs. going out of business? Who?
Fewer dealers? Mega-Dealers?
Mfgrs joining forces to become one company?
Smaller displacement cycles will be all the rage?
Large displacement bikes no longer desirable?
Electric cycles rule?
Millenials take up the sport in a different segment?
Whatever it is, the next 20 years will be interesting to watch!
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Manufacturers look to be moving in two different directions.
They are producing bikes with more technology, safety, creature comforts, etc. to appeal to the people who want the latest and greatest, and they are producing more entry level basic bikes to appeal to the folks who would rather buy new than used because of warranties, service, parts availability etc. instead of buying used bikes.
When bikes don't advance I prefer to buy used over new unless the depreciation isn't there.
I bought the V7III because I perceived it to be a superior machine compared to the V7 or V7II.
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The next deal will be electric bikes. You guys will be trashing your Guzzis, Ducs, vintage Brit Twins and 4 cyl UJMs for electric.
Can't wait for you guys to soup up batteries with special chemistry mixes and Guzzi Diag 9.0
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When all the ole timers here die out I’m quitting anyway;)
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Why do motorcyclists obsess and spend big dollars on aftermarket exhausts, seeking the perfect exhaust note? Because the intoxicating sound of a 4-stroke motor is an essential, irreplaceable feature of motorcycle charisma. No whining electric bike is ever going to eclipse that. Electrics maybe appealing in many ways, but the moto hardcore will long be loathe give up internal combustion engines, just because of the visceral satisfaction of having that pulsating, sweet-sounding lump between the rider's legs.
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I'm actually becoming concerned that the whole "electric bike" "carbon footprint" stuff will impact my ability to sell my old internal combustion two-wheeled dinosaurs. How many car manufacturers have announced they are going all electric by a certain year? California would ban IC engines now if they thought they could get away with it. In a few years, they will.
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My current motorcycles are great to ride and enjoy and have been selected and collected carefully over 30 years. The only new bikes I've been really attracted to since 2000 are some of the Harley engined Buells and the new V85TT. I might get one or both of those as time goes on but otherwise over the next twenty years I expect to be riding pretty much what I'm already riding. After that if I'm still around, if I can't ride them I'll polish them until I sell them.
A two wheeled car with 'technology' and 'features' is exactly what I want to avoid, and will avoid. What others may like and buy over the next twenty years isn't of great interest to me - if some like what I like its good for resale, but if not I might be able to find still better, low mileage pre-2000 bikes for low prices. Either way is good :thumb:
I'm expecting slow but measureable growth in the electric vehicle sector, with lots of people not biting until the economics and practicality make sense to them - which won't be soon. Certainly anybody who wants to outlaw use of currently registered vehicles in the US will face an impossible battle.
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You guys will be trashing your Guzzis, Ducs, vintage Brit Twins and 4 cyl UJMs for electric.
:laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
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I'm actually becoming concerned that the whole "electric bike" "carbon footprint" stuff will impact my ability to sell my old internal combustion two-wheeled dinosaurs. How many car manufacturers have announced they are going all electric by a certain year? California would ban IC engines now if they thought they could get away with it. In a few years, they will.
I don’t think so, I see your point but you are ignoring the rush of instant 100% torque! And if you really want to make your bike rumble you still will be able, in fact you can make it sound like a f4 or whatever you want, the choice is limitless.
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"What's on the horizon?!" - - Death and Taxes!! :laugh: :laugh: :grin: :grin: :wink: :shocked: :huh: :rolleyes:
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A lot of bike shops here won't even look at a bike more than 10 years old. Even BMW weren't interested in trading one of there own for a near new bike. I've basically given away the last 2 bikes Iv'e sold. Only way to move them. You could put a piece of cardboard in the spokes of your electric bike so people can hear you coming.
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Addding fake sound to an electric bike, to quote Keith Richards, would be 'the height of bad manors".
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I think the market will always have peaks and valleys.. And on top of that tastes change.. I think bikes had gotten way to complex, and costly for a large number of years. Add to that the last 10 years the market has been pretty soft.. The old bikes from the peak years are getting old, people still beat the tar out of their new stuff. [search Crags list for a 10 year old sport bike …. some pretty sad examples out there] And frankly... some buyers will only want new.. Not sure we will ever see the numbers of the 70's, and 80's again.. But I think things will still keep moving. Im all ready seeing a lot of buzz about the cheaper, more basic, simple bikes. The RE650, the MG V7 as examples.
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I'm actually becoming concerned that the whole "electric bike" "carbon footprint" stuff will impact my ability to sell my old internal combustion two-wheeled dinosaurs. How many car manufacturers have announced they are going all electric by a certain year? California would ban IC engines now if they thought they could get away with it. In a few years, they will.
If you are really concerned about being able to sell the bikes, you better sell now.
The longest I've ever kept a bike is 6 years but my average is around 2 1/2 years. My wants and needs in my motorcycle experience journey change and so the bikes change with me.
A few of the bikes I had because they were beautiful machines and stuck around longer than they should have because they didn't accumulate the miles like the others. The Vulcan Mean Streak and the V7 Cafe Classic are two bikes I wish I still had the space to keep in the stable.
If I had unlimited money, space, and time, i would definitely be buying up bikes that I found aesthetically pleasing regardless of whether I could ride them for more than 10 miles at a time.
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I look at a few classifieds...... :rolleyes:
The used bike prices for newer models is crashing, and that's subtracting the obvious spam scams of bizarre pricing.
Just yesterday I could have added 5-6 bikes, less than 5 yrs old, decked out with all the farkled bits, aftermarket exhausts, bags, tech, immaculate looks no damage or wear showing.....all below about 20-30% of a new cost, especially if you add all the farkles....all types and brands. I'm continually amazed how great the used market is....however, but
I'm only buying what I'll not HAVE TO sell...and what I'm curious to ride....and it has to be really cheap. I figure their won't be a buyers market like this again, because the clean electric gps driven self driving car will turn our roads and streets into a slow motion congested Conga line. How many cars have you started to see w a sticker that says "I'm going the speed limit because my boss is spying on my behavior"...Going 5 over in a 25 will get you a ticket because of the tech
But the older stuff has changed too. With entire parts inventory on line, it's easy to find your bits and pieces. People out there grab decent bikes and break them out on eBay as a full time business. For the old stuff in the garage I've stopped stockpiling parts and leaving it on eBay until needed. It seems to me the older stuff is going for less now, with more people restoring for the purposes of resell and not keep
I won't buy a bike unless I'm not going to sell it ...mine...you can't have it
These are going down fast, faster, fastest...along w the oceans of HD Sporties...
(https://i.ibb.co/dBkt7Jk/image.jpg) (https://ibb.co/dBkt7Jk)
post picture (https://imgbb.com/)
https://newyork.craigslist.org/wch/mcy/d/eastchester-kawasaki-vulcan-900-classic/6927652676.html
These are, or have been rising in price and quality w the availability of parts getting scrounged on eBay....
https://newyork.craigslist.org/lgi/mcy/d/centerport-vintage-1966-yamaha-ym1/6927657315.html
(https://i.ibb.co/TrnfxRw/image.jpg) (https://ibb.co/TrnfxRw)
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When they go electric, they will finally be making MOTORcycles....
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I'll use electricity for my electric razor and gasoline for my transportation, thanks.
The glut of bikes is probably from the over hype of the media, sheeple tend to believe the printed word.....like this message lol
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When they go electric, they will finally be making MOTORcycles....
Ha!,so true!
In engineering parlance IC powered cycles should be called "enginecycles" And modern "fuel injection" used in gasoline powered ICs is in reality electric controlled carburation...
Folks on this board that think the end of IC engines is near...ah, probably won't live to see that come anywhere near true. ICs just keep getting better and cleaner, lighter and cheaper to produce.
They are a marvel of engineering achievement.
:-)
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Local, State, Regional, National & World Market's are all different. Trying to make a single marketing and model decision to meet all of these location with a single model will not work.
Humans went from floating on logs, riding on animals, carts with wheels, ships, trains, automobiles, airplanes and space rockets. Whats next? My guess is more electric, less I.C.E. powering Our fun and needs.
As far as old stock, it will gradually go the way of the anvil. I read in a Convenience Store trade magazine there is over $13 Trillion in infrastructural built around the I.C.E. transportation vehicles.
I have been in the cellular phone business since 1994, prior to that, the pager business. The massive changes I have seen were huge and drastic. I recycled van loads of old technology phones as consumers demanded newer technology.
I appreciate change and look forward to it. I like my climate controller on the wall of the house, not owning a chain say to cut firewood or a windmill to pump water. Power steering and anti lock brakes are great along with an automatic transmission.
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I don't think there was so much consumer demand but it was more the manufacturer created the product then marketing ginned up demand. I don't think people who had an iPhone 2 were screaming for an iPhone 3....until they came out.
Win 7 was fine. Then we got Win 8, the OS nobody asked for so we got Win 10. Nobody wanted it.
Its all about generating sales.
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Once they figure out range and charging, and they are close, that should be it. Of course low carbon and renewable generation and environmentally responsible lithium (or replacement minerals) have to be figured out.
The electric infrastructure is already in place, just need charging service ports.
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I agree with John. We are getting pretty close to the tipping point. All the auto mfg have are gearing up to go majority electric. The rocket has left the pad, there is no stopping it, unless it explodes!
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I may be wrong guys but I’d give 2 to 1 odds this movements to electric bikes holds off until our generation has left the building 👍
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Another very cool vintage Honda...right near me... :cool: :thumb: :smiley:
However, because it has sat for a long, long, time, it would require A LOT of work to make road worthy which means a lot of time and $$$ MONEY $$$ :shocked: :huh: :rolleyes:
https://flagstaff.craigslist.org/mcy/d/flagstaff-1966-honda-305-scrambler/6926649018.html
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I'd be all over an electric Guzzi with the traditional jugs replaced with battery packs to maintain the look. Or something like that.
-AJ
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...and meanwhile...on fleaBAY!! "Dooooohhhh!!!" :rolleyes: :shocked: :huh: :laugh: :grin: :wink: :cool: :thumb:
(https://i.ibb.co/30M63CH/Screen-Shot-2019-07-08-at-9-56-10-AM.png) (https://ibb.co/30M63CH)
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Humans went from floating on logs, riding on animals, carts with wheels, ships, trains, automobiles, airplanes and space rockets.
I appreciate change and look forward to it. I like my climate controller on the wall of the house, not owning a chain say to cut firewood or a windmill to pump water. Power steering and anti lock brakes are great along with an automatic transmission.
Things never change as fast or as much as we think they will.
As the man says, I STILL go down the road dressed in animal skins straddling a machine propelled by fire ....
Lannis
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Things never change as fast or as much as we think they will.
Well, actually they can change much much faster than anyone expected. In 1907 only 140,000 motor vehicles were registered in the U.S. Ten years later it was 23 million (not including farm equipment), equal to the horse population. The number of horses later fell to 3 million. Over the same period we went from 148,000 miles of paved roads to more than 30 million. All of this was powered, in part, by government subsidies of petroleum development, which happened because the Navy needed fuel oil for its battle fleet and the Army needed gasoline to run tanks and trucks.
Stuff can happen fast. Motorcycle factories that want to survive (not to mention thrive) have to recognize that they're not in a motorsports business but in the cheap transportation business. Whatever it takes to grow in emerging economies is what they'll need to do. Successful companies will compete in the developed world with innovative products that can soak up discretionary $$ and meet as-yet-undefined needs.
The most successful motorcycle company worldwide is Honda, which leveraged a reputation for dependable engines to carve out a huge piece of the auto business -- one of the best-ever examples of hedging. Yamaha's engine-design alliance with Toyota is a good example of beyond-motorcycle thinking.
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Stuff can happen fast. Motorcycle factories that want to survive (not to mention thrive) have to recognize that they're not in a motorsports business but in the cheap transportation business. Whatever it takes to grow in emerging economies is what they'll need to do. Successful companies will compete in the developed world with innovative products that can soak up discretionary $$ and meet as-yet-undefined needs.
That's a good example and a short timeframe. But there are lots of counterexamples.
The 1911A1. Still a standard design, 108 years old. Boeing B52, in service for 60 years now, probably be 100 before the last ones are grounded. C130 Herk, still in production since 1954. Beechcraft Bonanza, still in production since 1945.
The 1915 Cadillac. Rubber tires, electric start, gasoline engine, pistons, crankshaft, differential, gear transmission, front wheel steering; essentially the same as a car today, 104 years later.
Until and unless someone comes up with a breakthrough like your example, that brings the energy density of 7 pounds of battery to somewhere near that of a gallon of gasoline, and doesn't have to rape the world for lithium, I think we'll be using IC for a while.
Lannis
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Well, actually they can change much much faster than anyone expected. In 1907 only 140,000 motor vehicles were registered in the U.S. Ten years later it was 23 million (not including farm equipment), equal to the horse population. The number of horses later fell to 3 million. Over the same period we went from 148,000 miles of paved roads to more than 30 million. All of this was powered, in part, by government subsidies of petroleum development, which happened because the Navy needed fuel oil for its battle fleet and the Army needed gasoline to run tanks and trucks.
True, but cars and trucks were also better/cheaper/faster/lower maintenance than horses. So far, over the past 50 years, electric has not been able to provide those benefits over internal combustion.
Stuff can happen fast. Motorcycle factories that want to survive (not to mention thrive) have to recognize that they're not in a motorsports business but in the cheap transportation business. Whatever it takes to grow in emerging economies is what they'll need to do. Successful companies will compete in the developed world with innovative products that can soak up discretionary $$ and meet as-yet-undefined needs.
For 50-years, now, proponents of electric autos have been trying. So far, electric has only been able to make very small inroads into auto/moto/truck markets. The electric people will have to provide machines that are better/cheaper/faster in order to provide the kind of sea change that was provided when autos replaced horses in the early 20th Century.
The most successful motorcycle company worldwide is Honda, which leveraged a reputation for dependable engines to carve out a huge piece of the auto business -- one of the best-ever examples of hedging. Yamaha's engine-design alliance with Toyota is a good example of beyond-motorcycle thinking.
How is Honda doing in the electric car and motorcycle business?
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That's a good example and a short timeframe. But there are lots of counterexamples.
The 1911A1. Still a standard design, 108 years old. Boeing B52, in service for 60 years now, probably be 100 before the last ones are grounded. C130 Herk, still in production since 1954. Beechcraft Bonanza, still in production since 1945.
The 1915 Cadillac. Rubber tires, electric start, gasoline engine, pistons, crankshaft, differential, gear transmission, front wheel steering; essentially the same as a car today, 104 years later.
Until and unless someone comes up with a breakthrough like your example, that brings the energy density of 7 pounds of battery to somewhere near that of a gallon of gasoline, and doesn't have to rape the world for lithium, I think we'll be using IC for a while.
Lannis
A while back I helped an old friend develop an electric motor powered aircraft. He was a principal in the "Quickie: aircraft corp. which was a single place composite machine that used a 30 hp onan flat head generator engine for its power plant. It was quite successful with that engine.
Long story short, we had a 25 hp electric motor and our problem was to find a battery solution...ugh.
Ended up wit Li batteries with expectable weight with about 30 min range..not much but this was for a contest that offered a big prize so good enough.
It flew pretty well.
The problem with the electric powered vehicle is power density of the battery. We needed the density of the modern smart phone battery but in a much larger output..Ha!
You can go (and I did) on the internet an find many companies that claim they have discovered to way to do this but when you contact them all they have is an idea and want you to invest.
Bottom line is they are up against a solid wall at this time and nobody has figured a way to accomplish such high densities in a large enough output to power vehicles w/o being very large, heavy, and not quick to charge to be useful in a practical way.
Right now its a pipe dream w/no light at the end of the tunnel.
The Navy needs to capture one of those UFO' and beat/bargain it out w/ them.
I'm sure they? are laughing at us!
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True, but cars and trucks were also better/cheaper/faster/lower maintenance than horses. So far, over the past 50 years, electric has not been able to provide those benefits over internal combustion.
For 50-years, now, proponents of electric autos have been trying. So far, electric has only been able to make very small inroads into auto/moto/truck markets. The electric people will have to provide machines that are better/cheaper/faster in order to provide the kind of sea change that was provided when autos replaced horses in the early 20th Century.
How is Honda doing in the electric car and motorcycle business?
Michael, we're just on the bottom of the learning curve for EV. I would imagine that we're a couple of generations of development away from hitting critical mass but I think it's inevitable. And I'll bet those generations might happen pretty quickly.
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Michael, we're just on the bottom of the learning curve for EV. I would imagine that we're a couple of generations of development away from hitting critical mass but I think it's inevitable. And I'll bet those generations might happen pretty quickly.
People have been saying that since the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo...
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People have been saying that since the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo...
Well, it looks like those people are proving to be right.
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A while back I helped an old friend develop an electric motor powered aircraft. He was a principal in the Quickie Aircraft Corp. which was a single place composite machine that used a 30 hp onan flat head generator engine for its power plant. It was quite successful with that engine.
Long story short, we had a 25 hp electric motor and our problem was to find a battery solution...ugh.
Ended up with Li batteries with expectable weight with about 30 min range..not much but this was for a contest that offered a big prize so good enough.
You can go (and I did) on the internet an find many companies that claim they have discovered to way to do this but when you contact them all they have is an idea and want you to invest.
The Pipistrel Electro trainer is in production and does about an hour training mission plus reserve. Not a practical machine but good enough to sell to a few European flight schools who,have limited options. It'd have a lot more endurance if sold as a single seater with an addional 180 lb of batteries.
https://www.pipistrel-usa.com/alpha-electro/
The original Quickie Onan engine was 18 HP if I recall correctly and a very heavy industrial generator design... which one would think might set the stage for installing heavy batteries. I'm guessing the payload was low originally and that limits the battery weight regardless. It certainly didn't need a lot of heavy fuel in its original configuration which sort of highlights the issue with electric aircraft propulsion - it's a weak solution for a problem that doesn't exist.
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The whole exercise was for a high$$ prize and had only 2 companies entered The original onan installation was indeed an 18 hp generator power plant and many of the Quickies did fly on that one, but it was developed to almost 30 hp eventually w/ one or two turbo charged.
Our electric Quickie was largely carbon fiber and considerably lighter with different flight controls and much smaller wheels than the original. It now sits in my hanger and will most likely end up in a museum.
It flew good.
Power densities are a long way from practical flight purposes. Electric vehicles are sort of a novelty at this point, good for urban/short range travel and that's about it. After experimenting with some high amp batteries I believe that when they get to the power densities for practical(high) use, they will be dangerous work on or around without special training.
From what I have seen (and I try to keep up thru the SAE), we are not very close to what we need.
You have ask yourself .?What makes electric vehicles so desirable? With IC engines approaching almost 0 emissions what do they offer other than that.
The chances of getting battery power and weight to match the energy and size of 231 cubic inches of gasoline is not likely to happen in my lifetime.
The infrastructure to support the charging requirements is and support of electrics is woefully thin at this point.
Like I said a novelty.
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Check this out. 3 minutes in. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhnjMdzGusc
Electric vehicles is nothing new.
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A second shot at a curmudgeonly old geezer opinion...
To me the saturated car and bike market is a symptom of the saturated ROADs problem, admittedly in the metro areas...
You're not gonna wanna ride, or drive, much of anything in the increasingly clogged hi ways, defying death and 18 wheelers. The casual rider of 2-5 k a year is deciding not too
Electric or IC, don't matter to me..
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Maybe I can find the Ducati Monster I've always wanted for cheap money...
Larry
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I was in Paris for work a couple of weeks ago and saw the electric future, at least in cities. It wasn't those obnoxious electric Razor scooters clogging the sidewalks (though they are everywhere, and the French madly ride them at full speed on the sidewalks, weaving around startled pedestrians); the future was electric Vespa-style sit-on scooters. A surprising number of them were circulating around the Place St. Michel. Eerily quiet, but seemingly quite capable for city traffic. I think that an electric Vespa makes a ton of sense for that kind of commute, a lot more sense than trying to make an electric motorcycle capable of touring. Given pollution concerns I think that big cities like Paris are likely to ban combustion in central areas sooner rather than later. During my short visit, combustion-engine vehicles older than a decade were temporarily banned from operation in the city (the heat wave had worsened particulates in the air).
The weirdest electric vehicle I saw was an electric sidewalk-sweeper. It was like a 1/3-size zamboni. It sprayed and sucked the sidewalk in front of me while I ate a croissant.
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The electric people will have to provide machines that are better/cheaper/faster in order to provide the kind of sea change that was provided when autos replaced horses in the early 20th Century.
They have accomplished better and faster, and are working on cheaper.
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Yeah, but when they find out that its going to take "Dilithium" to make it work..cheaper is out of reach.
Do you think that the electric car driver feels pretty good of him/her self that they are doing their part saving the planet when they pull up beside a 1 ton duly at a traffic light?
:-)
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I was in Paris for work a couple of weeks ago and saw the electric future, at least in cities. It wasn't those obnoxious electric Razor scooters clogging the sidewalks (though they are everywhere, and the French madly ride them at full speed on the sidewalks, weaving around startled pedestrians); the future was electric Vespa-style sit-on scooters. A surprising number of them were circulating around the Place St. Michel. Eerily quiet, but seemingly quite capable for city traffic. I think that an electric Vespa makes a ton of sense for that kind of commute, a lot more sense than trying to make an electric motorcycle capable of touring. Given pollution concerns I think that big cities like Paris are likely to ban combustion in central areas sooner rather than later.
This. It's not the future, it's now, especially in developing nations. Cheap, bulletproof commuter transport that doesn't spew NOx into urban centers. See for instance https://medium.com/@david_23633/electric-scooters-take-to-the-streets-of-havana-1f2e6d22be07 This is an urban phenomenon only but it's big now and will be huge within five years. Small island nations with short road systems and imported oil will also go big for electric bikes, especially as they figure out wind, solar and tidal electric generation and quit burning fuel oil for electricity.
We're also likely to see plug-in hybrids take over stop-and-go delivery fleets. See https://www.pressroom.ups.com/pressroom/ContentDetailsViewer.page?ConceptType=PressReleases&id=1519225541368-230 Battery weight is a much less critical issue for trucks than cars.
BTW one of the things killed off by automobiles in North America was electric interurban railroads. Before WWI the US had more than 15,000 miles of light rail mostly in the Midwest and California. They ran on catenary wires-- an old technology that could be revived for, say, medium-haul trucking. https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/siemens-sees-a-future-for-electric-trucks-powered-by-overhead-lines#gs.nxhm7x
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I'm in Paris now and there are quite a few electric devices with wheels buzzing about in town, but then scooters have always been popular here and in other big European cities.
Europe has a different culture than the US and most French families typically only have one auto and maybe a couple of scooters and a bicycle or two.
In the States every thing far flung and most families have more than one auto and no scooters or bicycles(get killed in the states one of those). And they are used to air conditioned everything.
A lot of compromises have to be made to go electric in the States. You folks that are set on saving the planet from evil fossil fuel (or even synthetic fuel) will find a way to justify electric vehicles.
After all its a dollar down and a dollar a month in the states and you can have what ever ride suits you.
Wonder how well a $35K electric will depreciate?( not to mention a $65K one)
Losing interest in this, as I don't really have a dog in this fight, but amusing just the same.
:-)
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Wonder how well a $35K electric will depreciate?( not to mention a $65K one)
Yeah. With the way technology progresses, I wonder if they'll be like computers, digital cameras, and smartphones. Basically worthless when the "new and improved" model comes out each year.
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Well, it looks like those people are proving to be right.
A hundred and twenty years ago electrics were actually a practical alternative compared with IC and steam.
Forty-six years ago in 1973 people were predicting "any day now" for practical, gas-engine-replacing electric cars. That went along, by the way, with the "Real Science", "You'd Better Believe This", "Go to Jail If You Deny It", known proven fact that the world would be out of petroleum by 1995. As opposed to us having twice the known reserves now that we had then.
They're still not here, and until the energy density breakthrough is made, they won't be. Electric scooters in Havana or downtown Paris have nothing zero nada zilch bupkis to do with driving in the USA, Russia, Brazil, etc etc. I'm all for all the electric trains to replace IC trucks that we can get our hands on, but that's an industrial issue, not a personal one.
So if you get 50 years to be "right" about something, that's a pretty low bar.
Lannis
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Yeah, but when they find out that its going to take "Dilithium" to make it work..cheaper is out of reach.
Do you think that the electric car driver feels pretty good of him/her self that they are doing their part saving the planet when they pull up beside a 1 ton duly at a traffic light?
:-)
yeah
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A lot of people say we don't have to worry about the future of ICE because electric vehicles aren't yet ready for prime time. Unfortunately, they overlook the PC police, enviro hand-ringers and others with a political ax to grind. Just because something isn't ready doesn't mean it won't be jammed down our throats.
Here's an article about all the various euro countries and cities that are trying to out-do each other in the race to be "green."
https://www.revzilla.com/common-tread/gasoline-vehicle-bans-coming-and-motorcycling-isnt-ready?
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Electric vehicle sales were up 81% in 2018 over 2017. 360,000 units sold.
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Electric vehicle sales were up 81% in 2018 over 2017. 360,000 units sold.
That's an increase from 1% to 2% of the total market of 17.27 million vehicles sold in the US. In other words, only 25 times more sales and electric will have half the US market.
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Bike Dealers.....they no longer have new bikes out front. Side by sides, wave runners, mowers. Tractors, fork lifts, outboard motors, etc.. Hell,Harley has Mahindra Razors out front. But they are the only ones that have new bikes out front.
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Bike Dealers.....they no longer have new bikes out front. Side by sides, wave runners, mowers. Tractors, fork lifts, outboard motors, etc.. Hell,Harley has Mahindra Razors out front. But they are the only ones that have new bikes out front.
I guess that depends on where you are located.
I can think of a half-dozen Harley dealers around here who are still Harley only (at least at that location), and most of which roll bikes out front into the lot every day.
Yeah, a bunch of the all brands around here have side-by-sides/ATVs.
We don't get a lot of marine to motorcycle crossover - except maybe jet skis in some of the all brands.
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We're hardly having EVs "crammed down our throats". EV charging ports aren't on every corner like gas stations. And again, we're still a couple of generations away from a practical EV with the range and recharge for "the best all around" vehicle. But it seems inevitable with technology and it's coming on fast.
Consider that electric generation is becoming more sustainable and cleaner, with the growth of wind and solar, cheaper natural gas and the phase out of coal. Of course the petro fuel companies have gotten a free ride since there has been no carbon tax, basically dumping carbon into the air like it's a garbage dump. Cost vs cost, we might have gotten EVs and green electricity much sooner.
It certainly makes sense to go electric in urban areas and Europe looks to be stepping up. One interesting note, I was recently in Northern Europe (NE and GE) and "prestige car" was a Tesla. When was the last time an American car a status symbol?
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Of course the petro fuel companies have gotten a free ride since there has been no carbon tax, basically dumping carbon into the air like it's a garbage dump. Cost vs cost, we might have gotten EVs and green electricity much sooner.
In many markets gasoline is taxed at 200%, meaning 2/3 of the pump price is tax. Not unlike cigarettes. In no market does electricity used for cars pay its 'fair share' of tax revenues in comparison, whether the electricity is sourced from fossil fuels like most of it or from renewables like hydroelectric etc. One of the issues with EVs is that this lack of tax revenue will likely lead to GPS based mileage tax so that electricity used for transport is in effect taxed like gasoline or Diesel.
It certainly makes sense to go electric in urban areas and Europe looks to be stepping up. One interesting note, I was recently in Northern Europe (NE and GE) and "prestige car" was a Tesla. When was the last time an American car a status symbol?
Who do you think sells more status symbols in China, BMW or Buick? Buick is a prestige brand there, selling 1,000,000 cars a year to the Chinese market with the average buyer in their early 30s and very status conscious. (BMW sells into the same Chinese market segment but at less than half the sales volume)
Europeans interest in EVs is on an individual level mainly motivated by avoidance of gasoline or Diesel fuel tax. In areas where EVs are really catching on that avoidance situation is being encouraged (for now) because hydroelectric and nuclear can produce the power domestically. I will not get into the motivation there given respect for the site prohibition on politics, but I'm sure it is obvious to anybody who wants to think about it. In the end, the tax revenue will be restored regardless.
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I got tired of working on old airheads (and a short lived 850T) and bought a 2006 S2R for very little money. It's an amazing motorcycle for what I paid. Loads of character, and it turns heads every time I ride it. I put bar risers on it, and think I might even be able to do some long-weekend tours. I did the valve check myself--much easier than I imagined.
Older Italian bikes are the best deal on the market right now, especially those old enough and simple enough to be sustainable for years to come. To me that means the best value is for bikes a little older than 2006 but OTOH Ducati and Guzzi were a little slower than BMW to jump on the disposable bike trend.
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I’m not sure batteries are the answer, yet. I expect a better option would be hybrids that could take power from an electrified toll road, but still have some sort of fuel-burner for unelectrified access roads. That way, traffic speed and the interval of vehicles could be regulated in highly used or other dangerous areas. Power transmission is a bigger problem, as wires waste a great deal of power the further they stretch out. I’m guessing the emergence of cold fusion will change things in a big way. One of the big government contractors has already claimed that a truck-portable cold fusion generator is on the horizon that can power a small town. Also, industry has already transitioned away from piston powered engines and switched to turbines. Maintenance is much easier and the fuel is safer than gasoline.
The good news as far as I’m concerned is that motorcycles will be available used for a song.
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I’m not sure batteries are the answer, yet. I expect a better option would be hybrids that could take power from an electrified toll road, but still have some sort of fuel-burner for unelectrified access roads. That way, traffic speed and the interval of vehicles could be regulated in highly used or other dangerous areas. Power transmission is a bigger problem, as wires waste a great deal of power the further they stretch out. I’m guessing the emergence of cold fusion will change things in a big way. One of the big government contractors has already claimed that a truck-portable cold fusion generator is on the horizon that can power a small town. Also, industry has already transitioned away from piston powered engines and switched to turbines. Maintenance is much easier and the fuel is safer than gasoline.
The good news as far as I’m concerned is that motorcycles will be available used for a song.
I agree Hybrid is the answer. at least till new tech comes along.. I think we are doing it wrong though. The newer plug in hybrids are a turn in the right direction I believe though.. Mostly electric, with just a small gas engine for recharging and cold weather heat needs. That will give the usefull range we need, but still allow for plug in EV power for short runs.
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I agree Hybrid is the answer. at least till new tech comes along.. I think we are doing it wrong though. The newer plug in hybrids are a turn in the right direction I believe though.. Mostly electric, with just a small gas engine for recharging and cold weather heat needs. That will give the usefull range we need, but still allow for plug in EV power for short runs.
Better!
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I agree Hybrid is the answer. at least till new tech comes along.. I think we are doing it wrong though. The newer plug in hybrids are a turn in the right direction I believe though.. Mostly electric, with just a small gas engine for recharging and cold weather heat needs. That will give the usefull range we need, but still allow for plug in EV power for short runs.
But what about performance? I'm liking the 2020 Lincoln Aviator plug-in hybrid. 450 bhp, 600 lb/ft torque, and lots of combined range!
:evil:
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I’m guessing the emergence of cold fusion will change things in a big way. One of the big government contractors has already claimed that a truck-portable cold fusion generator is on the horizon that can power a small town.
The bad news here is that "cold fusion" is in the same boat with "perpetual motion". It's physically not possible, no more possible than burning water as fuel; everyone who has had a "breakthrough" for cold fusion has been a scammer trying to rope in investors.
I wish it were, but "fusion" is not an easy thing to do; the best guys in the business have been trying for 70 years. No one in a garage lab or a kid's bedroom is going to invent a "fusion" process.
Remember that you heard it here, from Lannis, July 11, 2019. We'll check back in in a year or two, search keyword #coldfusion.
Lannis
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But what about performance? I'm liking the 2020 Lincoln Aviator plug-in hybrid. 450 bhp, 600 lb/ft torque, and lots of combined range!
:evil:
Really that's one of the best things about EV's... Nothing is going to slam you into the seat like a correctly sized electric motor!!! Unlike IC engines, its instant on!!!!
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The bad news here is that "cold fusion" is in the same boat with "perpetual motion". It's physically not possible, no more possible than burning water as fuel; everyone who has had a "breakthrough" for cold fusion has been a scammer trying to rope in investors.
I wish it were, but "fusion" is not an easy thing to do; the best guys in the business have been trying for 70 years. No one in a garage lab or a kid's bedroom is going to invent a "fusion" process.
Remember that you heard it here, from Lannis, July 11, 2019. We'll check back in in a year or two, search keyword #coldfusion.
Lannis
Come on you sound like an ex nuke guy or something... And don't you know that the millions we spend on ITER every year is not to just provide some PI's from ORNL a fancy vacation in the South of France?
As for the future, just with cars the big gains for bikes will be in power transmission. DFTV and other transmission technologies might save internal combustion but we will probably lose the clutch in the deal.
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Yeah, all those scammers at ORNL and Lochkheed Martin. They're always hogging up all the patents-
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/19652/lockheed-martin-now-has-a-patent-for-its-potentially-world-changing-fusion-reactor (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/19652/lockheed-martin-now-has-a-patent-for-its-potentially-world-changing-fusion-reactor)
Maybe John Hendrix was talking about the winning an even bigger war from a city to be built on Black Oak Ridge.
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Yeah, all those scammers at ORNL and Lochkheed Martin. They're always hogging up all the patents-
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/19652/lockheed-martin-now-has-a-patent-for-its-potentially-world-changing-fusion-reactor (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/19652/lockheed-martin-now-has-a-patent-for-its-potentially-world-changing-fusion-reactor)
Maybe John Hendrix was talking about the winning an even bigger war from a city to be built on Black Oak Ridge.
Before you start easing in the sarcasm, perhaps you might try figuring out the difference between "nuclear fusion", which is the process that runs the sun, that makes thermo-nuclear bombs work, and which MAY, if the reaction can be controlled with "Tokomak"-style magnetic fields (the ITER program to which Dillw refers) or with powerful laser beams actually come up with a usable energy yield someday (and it's been a 70 year process with lots of dead-ends) ....
... and "cold fusion", which comes up every year or so, where someone claims to actually get a fusion energy yield with two electrodes in a glass of water, or a kid working up a hydrolysis experiment in his basement, and which has attracted millions in venture capital ... which was the whole point to begin with.
To my claim that "cold fusion" will never be a thing, I'll add that I'm skeptical that a working, controlled fusion process that can actually be linked to energy-generating equipment will happen in the next 10 years. Lockheed Martin is a big engineering company, but they've been wildly optimistic in their press releases before, and they commit as many bloomers as the rest of us!
#coldfusion post 2.
Lannis
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Ah yes, and 'Zero Point energy and better yet? the Holographic Universe..(could explain missing or dark matter)!
That's what dreams are made of!
:-)
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Really that's one of the best things about EV's... Nothing is going to slam you into the seat like a correctly sized electric motor!!! Unlike IC engines, its instant on!!!!
Twin Turbo 3.0 V6 putting out 400 bhp and 400 lb/ft.
The electric add-on to that engine provides an additonial 50 bhp and about 200 lb/ft.
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Ah yes, and 'Zero Point energy and better yet? the Holographic Universe..(could explain missing or dark matter)!
That's what dreams are made of!
:-)
Kzinti "molecular distortion batteries" and "gravity planers" would make a huge difference .....
Lannis
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Kzinti "molecular distortion batteries" and "gravity planers" would make a huge difference .....
Lannis
The possibilities boggle the mind, I'm almost giddy...
Oh, its dinnertime, think I'll go and ponder the situation.
Over a nice glass of cabernet!
Anyway your stuff sounds more interesting than mine!!
:-)
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Before you start easing in the sarcasm, perhaps you might try figuring out the difference between "nuclear fusion", which is the process that runs the sun, that makes thermo-nuclear bombs work, and which MAY, if the reaction can be controlled with "Tokomak"-style magnetic fields (the ITER program to which Dillw refers) or with powerful laser beams actually come up with a usable energy yield someday (and it's been a 70 year process with lots of dead-ends) ....
... and "cold fusion", which comes up every year or so, where someone claims to actually get a fusion energy yield with two electrodes in a glass of water, or a kid working up a hydrolysis experiment in his basement, and which has attracted millions in venture capital ... which was the whole point to begin with.
To my claim that "cold fusion" will never be a thing, I'll add that I'm skeptical that a working, controlled fusion process that can actually be linked to energy-generating equipment will happen in the next 10 years. Lockheed Martin is a big engineering company, but they've been wildly optimistic in their press releases before, and they commit as many bloomers as the rest of us!
#coldfusion post 2.
Lannis
Darn it. When I spilled my special glass of water while I was typing, I forgot to include or even mention the word "cold". Then I linked an article about a patent having nothing to do with cold fusion. I was so close.
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My goodness, this was about motorcycles and guessing that we might see more electric bikes or perhaps new paint jobs and luggage racks. Now we're talking about nuclear fusion aircraft carriers and the holographic universe.
Markers have been placed with long term challenges portending greatness and ridicule.
Gawd, we're a pompous bunch.
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This is why Isis wants to kill us all!! :cheesy:
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The bad news here is that "cold fusion" is in the same boat with "perpetual motion". It's physically not possible, no more possible than burning water as fuel; everyone who has had a "breakthrough" for cold fusion has been a scammer trying to rope in investors.
I wish it were, but "fusion" is not an easy thing to do; the best guys in the business have been trying for 70 years. No one in a garage lab or a kid's bedroom is going to invent a "fusion" process.
Remember that you heard it here, from Lannis, July 11, 2019. We'll check back in in a year or two, search keyword #coldfusion.
Lannis
Lannis, you're right and I'm wrong. The term is Compact Fusion. Interesting site from Lockheed Martin:
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/compact-fusion.html
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In the nuclear power world, the word is that the practical fusion reactor is 20 years away and always will be.
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Since this thread has been thoroughly diverted from its original subject by a discussion of fusion - nuclear and "cold"- let me offer a couple of comments.
In 2002-2004, on loan from the State Department, I worked in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) as International Affairs Coordinator. This was at the time the US was considering participation in the proposed International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project, a visionary effort seeking to build the world's first operable, sustaining nuclear fusion reactor, a goal which has eluded science for decades. OSTP was the lead US Government office for this decision. After lengthy negotiations, the US decided to help build the reactor by joining an international consortium of seven of the world's leading scientific/industrial countries (joined since 2016 by an eighth partner, Australia). A number of candidate sites were proposed, narrowed to two by the final selection process: Rokkasho-Mura in northern Japan and Caderache in southern France. Caderache won out in the end, principally because of the much better seismic stability of this region compared to Japan.
Construction of the ITER reactor facility began in 2010; the reactor complex is now well advanced and should be ready in 2020-21 to receive the TOKOMAK components and other reactor elements supplied by member countries. Assembly will take several years, with first fusion plasma foreseen in late 2025. The ITER reactor is the most complex, expensive and scientifically advanced international cooperative project ever undertaken. If it performs as expected, this will represent the first step in a much longer process to harness nuclear fusion, which, if successful, could provide the world with a nearly limitless, practical supply of energy. In contrast to today's nuclear fission-powered reactors, nuclear fusion would be safe and environmentally friendly, producing no radioactive waste. ITER is a very, very serious scientific experiment, designed by many of the world's most eminent nuclear physicists. It represents a major commitment of talent, cooperation and resources to a project that many see as the world's best chance for a major advance in carbon-free energy and a much-needed means to attenuate the further accumulation of greenhouse gasses. ITER, a long-term project which is not a ready subject for the nightly news cycle, is flying somewhat under the global news radar, but it is in reality one of the most important scientific projects of the 21st century.
I agree with Lannis: "cold fusion" claims are nothing more than pseudo-science snake oil.
Apologies for amplifying the hijack of a thread that was in its own right interesting.
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Pretty good update. So what do you think about the possibility of an almost ready for prime time fusion reactor that will ride on the back of a truck? Is Lockheed Martin blowing plasma up our respective arses for the quarterly report results or did they shortcut ITER with a breakthrough bigger than electricity?
Lannis
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LockMart has a huge pool of engineering talent and plentiful resources for research, but their expertise lies mainly in aerospace and weaponry. Nuclear physics is normally not their game. I think it unlikely but not impossible that they may have come upon a different approach to creating the interior-of-the-sun pressures and temperature needed to initiate and sustain fusion. But it sounds far too easy and tidy to be real. I will be skeptical of LockMart's claim until I see some verified results. I still think ITER is the more promising and realistic path. Once ITER is up and running and has proven sustained fusion, there will still be a long development road to the ultimate goal of commercial energy generation via fusion.
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LockMart has a huge pool of engineering talent and plentiful resources for research, but their expertise lies mainly in aerospace and weaponry. Nuclear physics is normally not their game. I think it unlikely but not impossible that they may have come upon a different approach to creating the interior-of-the-sun pressures and temperature needed to initiate and sustain fusion. But it sounds far too easy and tidy to be real. I will be skeptical of LockMart's claim until I see some verified results. I still think ITER is the more promising and realistic path. Once ITER is up and running and has proven sustained fusion, there will still be a long development road to the ultimate goal of commercial energy generation via fusion.
Yup! :thumb:
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Lannis, you're right and I'm wrong. The term is Compact Fusion. Interesting site from Lockheed Martin:
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/compact-fusion.html
It is interesting, but it's been tried for years - the engineering hurdles are horrendous, and from reading the site, it's still "vaporware" - good ideas and a lot of talent, perhaps, but nothing actually working yet. Five year horizon is hugely optimistic ....
But as always, time will tell.
Lannis
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And as a segue:
(https://i.postimg.cc/kgx3kWqc/cb2.jpg)
(https://i.postimg.cc/Y9CqPs2L/00.jpg)
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But what about the hydrogen fuel cells that were supposed to be powering cars by now?
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But what about the hydrogen fuel cells that were supposed to be powering cars by now?
The problem is hydrogen. It takes too much energy to extract it from water or natural gas. Makes fuel cell technology not financially feasible. United Technologies here in CT had a big fuel cell research program. Converted a couple of bus's to fuel cell/electrical power, and did some fuel cells for building electrical power supplies. They scrapped the program just a couple of years ago because the numbers didn't work.
Wow, talk about thread drift!
Larry
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Wow, talk about thread drift!
Larry
I honestly don't see how this is thread drift at all.
By the second or third post in the thread, we were talking about electric motorcycles as part of the "saturated motorcycle market" alternatives. If there's going to be electric vehicles, they have to be powered with something.
So a lot of the discussion is "how practical is that? How will we power them?" It's directly ON topic, because just saying "EV" doesn't mean anything if it can't really be done without huge changes in how we live.
And we can't just keep bleating "Wind and Solar" like you-know-who in his bunker moving armored divisions around on the situation map that don't really exist. Some of these technical solutions are hard, and nowhere near implementation for the size changes we're talking about in a market "saturated" with internal-combustion powered vehicles.
Now, if by the second page we were talking about whether Eleanor Powell or Cyd Charisse was the better dancer, or whether ground or whole thyme leaves were a better ingredient for a pork rub, THAT would be thread drift. I don't see this as being thread drift at all; not only that, there's a lot of good stuff in here that's directly applicable to the future of the sport ...
Lannis
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The problem is hydrogen. It takes too much energy to extract it from water or natural gas. Makes fuel cell technology not financially feasible. United Technologies here in CT had a big fuel cell research program. Converted a couple of bus's to fuel cell/electrical power, and did some fuel cells for building electrical power supplies. They scrapped the program just a couple of years ago because the numbers didn't work.
Wow, talk about thread drift!
Larry
Yeah. We were supposed to have these natural gas hydrogen producing plants the size of an A/C condenser at our house that would produce the hydrogen the charge up the fuel cells. Looked great in the Popular Mechanics article's art work.
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I honestly don't see how this is thread drift at all.
Agreed, and the depth and breadth of the Guzzi community never ceases to amaze me. :thumb:
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Could be just Supply and Demand.
Too much supply, not enough demand, and Abra Ca Dabra less motorcycle sales.
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I don't see a silver lining for the dealers .
Quads , side by sides , watercraft , yes ; motorcycles no .
Motorcycles are not fun to operate in congested areas , and there are more congested areas now , and the areas are bigger .
The ' lure of the open road ' still exists for many , but there are fewer open roads .
For most , their bike is kind of a pet , not transportation .
Yesterday I rode my Guzzi down hwy70 to I-5 through Sacramento to Stockton . It was a pleasant ride down the Feather River canyon , hot in the valley but on I-5 through Sacramento it was a crawl . I split lanes when I could , but you can't always , so I'm stopped or nearly stopped many times on a 4 or 5 lane freeway in the July sun , thinking if I lived down here I would most likely not be commuting on a bike .
Decent cars cost a little more , and they use a little more gas , but they have much better climate control .
Down in the valley , I saw more bikes in the back of pickup trucks and on trailers , than I did on the road .
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Motorcycles are not fun to operate in congested areas , and there are more congested areas now , and the areas are bigger .
The ' lure of the open road ' still exists for many , but there are fewer open roads .
Having got back from a month-long tour of the country on a bike, coast to coast (well, almost, we missed California), I might suggest that maybe your experience is colored by riding on Southern California roads.
There are MASSIVE areas of the country where you won't see another car in an hour of riding. You can ride for tens of thousands of miles on roads in the USA (not to mention Canada) that just seem deserted. The roads I ride on here around my house don't have significantly more traffic than they did 50 years ago when I began riding them on a motorcycle.
Certainly there are areas in Florida and around Atlanta and Houston and Charlotte NC and the DC area that have turned into huge parking lots where there used to be open countryside. But percentage-wise, that's a small part of the country. Lots of people there, and they see that crowding and congestion that you describe, but that's sort of a lifestyle choice. A large part of the reason that I picked to live where I live is because I enjoy the riding here, and that's always been a big part of my life.
What that all will do to the future of motorcycling, I don't know. I do know that, with the majority of my riding having been on BSAs and Moto Guzzis over the last 20 years, the existence or non-existence of dealers, or the availability of new motorcycles, will have about zero impact on when, what, and how far I ride ....
Lannis
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I live in Northern California in a mountain town of 2000 . Even during the tourist season I can ride from my house to the next gas stop , and only put my feet down once at the stop sign bottom of hill . It is very pleasant here , and I can ride all day on uncrowded roads , stopping only for gas , or to stretch .
My point in the above post is that the congested areas are getting bigger and more congested . 20 years ago it was a breeze getting through Sacramento , now it is not .
Another way for me to get to Stockton was to go south through Truckee and Tahoe , get to hwy88 and down the hill , all nice 2 lane . During the summer months Tahoe is so crowded with tourists that it becomes nearly as bad .
The last few times I rode to southern California , I rode at night .
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The Italians main use of our motorcycles in urban.
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Things never change as fast or as much as we think they will.
As the man says, I STILL go down the road dressed in animal skins straddling a machine propelled by fire ....
Lannis
Lannis, THAT phrase is a thing of beauty. I'm gonna use it in a Scottish Accent. Thanks!!! Todd
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Riding in California...
A big state w/34 million folks?(LA times data).
87% of the population reside within 50 miles of the coast! If you stay off the interstates, between San Diego and San Francisco (I-5 Highway 99) in the San Quoaquin valley and the big metropolitans areas, you can find some Very Lightly traveled roads (vast amount actually) some of which are Alps like.
And the miles of dirt roads in the mountain ranges is vast.
I've been leaving California for 50 years..
:-)
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Things never change as fast or as much as we think they will.
As the man says, I STILL go down the road dressed in animal skins straddling a machine propelled by fire ....
Lannis
Lannis, THAT phrase is a thing of beauty. I'm gonna use it in a Scottish Accent. Thanks!!! Todd
Like every other word or phrase I (or anyone else here) writes or uses, I learned it from someone else and use it shamelessly.
I believe that credit for this one goes to 'Rough Edge Racing' ....
Lannis
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No Guzzi content, but just another example of how the environmento wackos and their politicians step all over one another to show how "green" they are. And if you don't like it, well tough:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-17/california-s-berkeley-bans-natural-gas-in-new-buildings
Of course, if there's one thing I've learned in my 60+ years on this planet, is that people vote with their feet!
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No Guzzi content, but just another example of how the environmento wackos and their politicians step all over one another to show how "green" they are. And if you don't like it, well tough:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-17/california-s-berkeley-bans-natural-gas-in-new-buildings
Of course, if there's one thing I've learned in my 60+ years on this planet, is that people vote with their feet!
Could be a good thing for all of us; it only affects a limited area and it'll be like an experiment to see how it goes, and whether they stick with it. They can always undo it if it doesn't have the intended consequence ....
Lannis
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No Guzzi content, but just another example of how the environmento wackos and their politicians step all over one another to show how "green" they are. And if you don't like it, well tough:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-17/california-s-berkeley-bans-natural-gas-in-new-buildings
Of course, if there's one thing I've learned in my 60+ years on this planet, is that people vote with their feet!
Have to agree that's extreme. Gotta have gas to cook.
Dunno about heat in sunny CA.
If you gotta go electric, I hope that ain't burning coal. (prolly gas though)
(disclosure: I am a stockholder in a couple of natural gas companies. I've been a shareholder since gas was the "clean fuel".)
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Have to agree that's extreme. Gotta have gas to cook.
Dunno about heat in sunny CA.
I'm pretty sure Berkley, being on the bay, is cool and foggy like San Francisco.
Agreed about natural gas. It's a well developed fuel supply, for cooking and heating.
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So the idea is to ban use of natural gas for heat, an application for which it is 100% efficient, and replace it with electric heat which will be generated by burning natural gas for conversion to electricity at 40% efficiency. That means you burn 2-1/2 times the natural gas for the same heat produced in the home. Only in Bezerkley is that logical... because it means the natural gas will be burned in Arizona and that doesn't count.
We are very lucky in the US to have inexpensive, domestic (in both senses) natural gas.
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"Bezerkley" Now that's funny, I don't care who you are! :laugh:
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So the idea is to ban use of natural gas for heat, an application for which it is 100% efficient, and replace it with electric heat which will be generated by burning natural gas for conversion to electricity at 40% efficiency. That means you burn 2-1/2 times the natural gas for the same heat produced in the home. Only in Bezerkley is that logical... because it means the natural gas will be burned in Arizona and that doesn't count.
We are very lucky in the US to have inexpensive, domestic (in both senses) natural gas.
wait ....you're saying it's more efficient to have a gas flame in your furnace and water tanks, vs gas burning a huge boiler, steam running a dynamo, sending the power down the grid and running heat stips or a pump at the house ?
hmmmm
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wait ....you're saying it's more efficient to have a gas flame in your furnace and water tanks, vs gas burning a huge boiler, steam running a dynamo, sending the power down the grid and running heat stips or a pump at the house ?
hmmmm
I just had gas installed in my kitchen so I could have a gas cooktop and thus have the tools to be a gourmet cook like the guys on this list, and also installed a gas heater.
I couldn't bring myself, however, to install a 100% efficient ventless heater, where all of the combustion products and water vapor generated by the gas flame stay in my house and stay concentrated there. I did a vented heater with a heat exchanger; a bit less efficient but not such a concentrated smell of gas all the time. Even at the dealer, where they assured me that their demo heaters were perfectly adjusted, I can tell that the heater is venting into the room, not to mention having to have a de-humidifier to deal with the water ...
Lannis
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I believe it matters from how the town gets its power. If it’s generated via solar, wind hydro or combination, it makes sense, right?
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Thread drift there is a little thing called economies of scale works with engineering as well, one big power plant is a lot more efficent than a lot of very small ones with the same capacity. The ther aspect is if you are not going to do research and experimentation at universities and similar where are you going to do it?
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Excellent point.
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A second shot at a curmudgeonly old geezer opinion...
To me the saturated car and bike market is a symptom of the saturated ROADs problem, admittedly in the metro areas...
You're not gonna wanna ride, or drive, much of anything in the increasingly clogged hi ways, defying death and 18 wheelers. The casual rider of 2-5 k a year is deciding not too
Electric or IC, don't matter to me..
Agree. I would not have bikes without open spaces readily available for riding. That's part of the reason I moved to northern Nevada from Indy.
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I was just going through Craig’s list in my neck of the woods and realized that I think I understand the reason for this “saturated market” there are over 600 listings and 160 of them are recent. 90% of them have the same thing in common.... they are listed at about 25- 50 higher than the normal thinking reasonable person would be willing to pay! A reasonable buyer is simply not going to pay the high book value unless there is something really special about the bike, to Witt: extremely low mileage showroom condition or collector bike.
One can list a motorcycle at any price they wish however if it is ridiculous don’t be astonished if no one calls you.
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Thread drift there is a little thing called economies of scale works with engineering as well, one big power plant is a lot more efficent than a lot of very small ones with the same capacity.
There are a few exceptions to that generally true concept.
One is where gas is used for heating. For a ventless heater, the efficiency is 100% - all of the heat, along with all of the combustion products, go straight to heating the house.
If you burned that same gas to make steam and turn a turbine and spin a dynamo and transmit the electricity, doesn't matter how big the plant is, you're losing 40% or so of the energy you started out with in the gas to heat losses elsewhere in the generating cycle.
Same is true for a gas cooktop or a gas water heater. None of the heat ends up in boiler pipe insulation or dynamo bearings or resistance losses in a big wire, it all goes into what you're heating.
Lannis
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If you burned that same gas to make steam and turn a turbine and spin a dynamo and transmit the electricity, doesn't matter how big the plant is, you're losing 40% or so of the energy you started out with in the gas to heat losses elsewhere in the generating cycle.
You lose 60%, the conversion efficiency by the process you describe is roughly 40% for a utility scale system so most of the heat produced by burning the gas is lost at the generating plant. You then get an additional small electrical resistive loss is getting the current to your house.
Gas burned in a house is turned to heat with virtually 100% efficiency. The only loss is the very small pumping loss associated with getting the gas to your house. What you do with the heat is then under your control, if you open the doors on the house in the middle of winter you lose quite a bit of it :grin:
The key issue is that you do not convert the heat energy when burning at your house, or undergo any conversion losses, the final product is intended to be heat.
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Being a warm climate, Berkley can get by without natural gas. Naples, Florida is a bit warmer, and the demand for natural gas there is so low that their are no gas mains in much of the area. What gas mains there are were put in by the county to power generators to keep the sewers from backing up in a power failure.
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I was just going through Craig’s list in my neck of the woods and realized that I think I understand the reason for this “saturated market” there are over 600 listings and 160 of them are recent. 90% of them have the same thing in common.... they are listed at about 25- 50 higher than the normal thinking reasonable person would be willing to pay! A reasonable buyer is simply not going to pay the high book value unless there is something really special about the bike, to Witt: extremely low mileage showroom condition or collector bike.
One can list a motorcycle at any price they wish however if it is ridiculous don’t be astonished if no one calls you.
I always wonder if they eventually get sold or the person just gives up and removes the ad. I've contacted a few and told them what the value was and what I was willing to pay and they just said "bugger off". Cruisers are a dime a dozen from all manufacturers. Seeing a triumph or ducati scrambler is rare, but that doesn't make them worth more than NADA.
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I always wonder if they eventually get sold or the person just gives up and removes the ad. I've contacted a few and told them what the value was and what I was willing to pay and they just said "bugger off". Cruisers are a dime a dozen from all manufacturers. Seeing a triumph or ducati scrambler is rare, but that doesn't make them worth more than NADA.
I think they run it a few times then realize it they went to sell their bikes to just accept the best offer or the next offer. The key lies with the seller who is usually in one of three types.
Does he have to sell
Does he want to sell
Does he not care if it sells or not
Personally if I really want the bike or any other items, I will give top book. Over top book and they can keep it and I’ll end the conversation with “good luck “
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Personally if I really want the bike or any other items, I will give top book. Over top book and they can keep it and I’ll end the conversation with “good luck “
I as well. Paid NADA for the '10 Café Classic. Never saw one in the flesh and didn't think I would ever see another one. Decent price for a 4 year old bike with super low miles. But man did I watch the NADA value tank over the next 4 years. Oh well. Should have just kept it, but the V7III is so much more bike than that café classic. That bike felt like 1965, while the V7III feels like 2018.
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I just had gas installed in my kitchen so I could have a gas cooktop and thus have the tools to be a gourmet cook like the guys on this list, and also installed a gas heater.
I couldn't bring myself, however, to install a 100% efficient ventless heater, where all of the combustion products and water vapor generated by the gas flame stay in my house and stay concentrated there. I did a vented heater with a heat exchanger; a bit less efficient but not such a concentrated smell of gas all the time. Even at the dealer, where they assured me that their demo heaters were perfectly adjusted, I can tell that the heater is venting into the room, not to mention having to have a de-humidifier to deal with the water ...
Lannis
There's three kinds of gas heaters, ventless, vented, and direct vent. Ventless is as you said, combustion air from the room, gases vented into the room. It's the worst kind, they're not permitted at all in sleeping rooms. Vented gets the combustion air from the room, gases get vented outside the building. Direct vent gets combustion air from outside the building, and gases are vented outside the building. I would consider only a direct vented appliance, from a life safety perspective.
Larry
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Direct vent gets combustion air from outside the building, and gases are vented outside the building. I would consider only a direct vented appliance, from a life safety perspective.
Larry
That's the kind I've got, now that you describe it. Two pipes running up inside the old chimney - one to draw combustion air, one to vent it. About 25% of the heat goes out the vent, the rest stays in the room.
I can tell you that the gas company was selling the unvented type very hard, saying it was 80% of their installations. I just didn't like the idea ....
Lannis
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And to think I came into this thread looking for a discussion on where the motorcycle market it headed.
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OK, we kind of wandered off into the weeds here.
The first IC vehicles had a stutter step beginning and took time to sort themselves out. It took infrastructure to support them...oil drilling, refining, proper regulations, etc. Electric vehicles will follow the same pattern/rules. They will be oddities/curiosities/chosen by the few who believe in them, until the infrastructure supports them as well. They will start to be successful in niche markets and when we finally move to sustainable electrical systems, (wind, tidal, water, solar, geothermal, proper transmission and storage strategies and a host of others), they will be the norm. There are places for several energy sources...wood, petroleum, "green", nuclear, and whatever the future brings. There is no 'one size fits all'.
Remember, we already have viable electric/hybrid transportation systems trains, marine, automotive, etc. We will eventually move toward sustainable electrical production, storage and transmission systems. As that happens, I hope that our social, political and moral systems embrace them and decide to move forward...you know in your heart of heart of hearts that if we don't do this, someone else will...and we will buy all that wonderful stuff from them.
Be well,
DougG
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And to think I came into this thread looking for a discussion on where the motorcycle market it headed.
Well, that'll teach YOU .... :cool:
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Lannis, Ain't it the truth...:bow:
DougG
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Well what would anyone expect with a forum full
Of old geezers who can’t find their bikes in the Walmart parking lot.....on a good day and on a bad day can’t remember why they were at Walmart 😂😂😂😂
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Dan... :thumb:
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Dan... :thumb:
Oh wait, I remember now, went there to get Mobile 15-50 synthetic. Now let’s see if this goes to an oil thread LMBO😂😂😂 I love this forum!!
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"...One can list a motorcycle at any price they wish however if it is ridiculous don’t be astonished if no one calls you."
You can list it for $1000 to $1500 below so-called book and don’t be astonished if no one calls you.