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General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: canuck750 on July 23, 2019, 12:14:39 PM

Title: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: canuck750 on July 23, 2019, 12:14:39 PM
From the CBC web site:

Harley-Davidson Inc. on Tuesday trimmed guidance for shipments of its motorcycles in 2019 after worldwide sales in the second quarter slumped, hurt by higher tariff costs as well as weak demand in the United States.
Operating margin in the motorcycles segment, or how much profit the company makes per dollar of sales after accounting for production costs, was also revised down.
The revised outlook led to a four per cent fall in the company's stock price in premarket trade.

The Milwaukee-based company now expects to ship about 212,000 to 217,000 bikes in 2019. This compares with the company's original estimate of 217,000 to 222,000 bikes for the year.
Operating margin as a per cent of motorcycle revenue is projected to be about six to seven per cent this year, lower than the eight to nine per cent estimated earlier.

Harley shifts some production to Europe as $2,200 per bike tariff kicks in
Harley's challenges in the United States, which accounts for more than half of the company's sales, are well documented — core customers are growing older and outreach efforts to attract new and young riders have yet to show results.
U.S. retail sales were down eight per cent from a year ago in the second quarter.
In a reflection of the demographic headwind, the heavyweight motorcycle maker's stock price has declined by 46 per cent in the past five years. In comparison, the S&P 500 has gained 50 per cent.

Compounding the company's troubles is U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war. In retaliation for the tariffs the White House placed on imported steel and aluminum, the European Union increased import duties on U.S.-manufactured Harley bikes to 31 per cent from 6 per cent last June.
Harley dives into Asian market with smaller bikes to fuel growth
Similarly, China's tariffs on the bikes exported from the U.S. have increased to 55 per cent from 30 per cent as a result of the trade war between the world's two biggest economies.

The incremental tariffs cost the company $34.4 million US in the June quarter, contributing to a 12.5 per cent plunge in retail sales in Europe.
Overall, worldwide sales in the quarter were down 8.4 per cent from a year ago. However, in a sliver lining for the American company, sales in emerging market were up 7.6 per cent year on year.
To mitigate the EU tariffs, Harley said it got the approval from the trading bloc to ship bikes from its Thailand facility.

In the latest quarter, Harley's profits declined to $1.23 per share from $1.45 per share a year ago. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv, on average, expected the earnings to come in at $1.20 per share.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: RinkRat II on July 23, 2019, 12:51:12 PM

  Yep steady decline since 2014, long before tariffs and trade wars and what was their plan in the meantime? Anyone? ...... crickets. At least thet're still paying a dividend.

       Paul B :boozing: :popcorn:
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: screamday on July 23, 2019, 12:57:46 PM
  Yep steady decline since 2014, long before tariffs and trade wars and what was their plan in the meantime? Anyone? ...... crickets. At least they're still paying a dividend.

       Paul B :boozing: :popcorn:

I think that was the plan.  :boozing: :boozing:
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Tusayan on July 23, 2019, 01:20:09 PM
The “Harley shifts some production to Europe” reporting seems to an ongoing myth created by inaccurate reporting and not discouraged by HD... which as I understand it is actually discussing moving some production to India and/or China to among other things avoid EU import tariffs which are specifically applied to imports from the US.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: LowRyter on July 23, 2019, 02:11:52 PM
Harley already has production plants in Brazil, India, Australia and Thailand.  And many components delivered internationally.

I'd guess that when Harley catches cold, other US sellers catch pneumonia. 
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: sib on July 23, 2019, 03:01:28 PM
...The Milwaukee-based company now expects to ship about 212,000 to 217,000 bikes in 2019...
That's still a lot of bikes, especially by Moto Guzzi standards.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: John Ulrich on July 23, 2019, 03:14:36 PM
That's still a lot of bikes, especially by Moto Guzzi standards.

 :thumb:    The catagory is aging out..... look at are rallys.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Vince in Milwaukee on July 23, 2019, 04:06:29 PM
I currently own about 2 shares of HD.  Doesn't pay to get rid of them; what will that get me, one nice dinner out with me and the girlfriend?  I'm hanging on to them more as a novelty than anything else.  Maybe that new electric bike will be the ticket!   :grin:
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: LowRyter on July 23, 2019, 05:45:28 PM
:thumb:    The catagory is aging out..... look at are rallys.

yeah my bro-in-law used to take his Harleys to lots of rallies and said that most of them have ceased.   I wonder if Sturgis gets all that it used to?  I know that Daytona seems a shell of what it was but I don't know if it's affected the attendance. 
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Ncdan on July 23, 2019, 07:14:56 PM
:thumb:    The catagory is aging out..... look at are rallys.
Not sure I agree John. I went to the spring rally in Myrtle Beach this year, I usually go every other year, and I didn’t see any reduction from the past 30+ years I’ve been attending the rally’s. As usual I was the only Moto Guzzi there and this time 3 folks knew what it was:)
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Tom on July 23, 2019, 07:26:48 PM
With the aging....how will that affect the wet t-shirt contest???  I dread the thought.  :evil: :evil: :evil: :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: twowheeladdict on July 23, 2019, 07:33:15 PM
:thumb:    The catagory is aging out..... look at are rallys.

The category?  Cruiser sales still far surpass all other categories combined if you dont count 3rd world small bikes sales.  Eventually everyone gets older. I guess if there are less prople getting older not only motorcycle sales will suffer, but so will corvette sales, motorhome sales, etc.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Kev m on July 23, 2019, 07:58:18 PM
Funny thing about aging.... Today's youth will be tomorrow's grumpy old men.

And a lot of guys who didn't get to ride in their youth (or right more expensive brands) will be able to later.

Either way it will hardly effect the grumpy old curmudgeons here's.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: TN Mark on July 23, 2019, 09:21:54 PM
From the CBC web site:

The Milwaukee-based company now expects to ship about 212,000 to 217,000 bikes in 2019. This compares with the company's original estimate of 217,000 to 222,000 bikes for the year.


In a reflection of the demographic headwind, the heavyweight motorcycle maker's stock price has declined by 46 per cent in the past five years. In comparison, the S&P 500 has gained 50 per cent.


Selling 5000 fewer bikes for any motorcycle manufacturer is a very big deal in today's market. As has been posted, if H-D catches a cold, other manufacturers could catch pneumonia. H-D seems to have a lot of newer and smaller displacement models coming out which should bode well for them going forward. How many V85's does Moto Guzzi need to sell in North America for that bike to be called a success?


H-D losing 46% of their stock price compared to a 50% gain in the S&P 500 in the last 5 years is shocking. It surprises me they've seemingly been so slow to address such obvious market trends. At least they finally seem to have a better focus.


I ride with mostly H-D owners. Most who continue to be stuck like glue to the bar and shield brand. They're simply shocked my Victory hasn't been rebuilt once already and isn't needing to be rebuilt again now that it's coming up on 69K miles. I tell them that at 90K to 100K miles I may add a big bore kit (106" to 117") to up the Hp and Torque numbers another 20 points. 

Every brand, not just H-D, has to figure out what it takes to get entry riders on their bikes by figuring out what they actually want. With Piaggio focusing the Moto Guzzi brand on 750's and 850's maybe they'll be able to grow the brand. But certainly not without a substantially more effective dealer network.

A couple months back it was rumored on this forum that the 1400 line is either going to be trimmed way back or even discontinued altogether. Has there been any further information on the status of the 1400 line of Guzzis?


Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: LowRyter on July 23, 2019, 09:38:26 PM
With the aging....how will that affect the wet t-shirt contest???  I dread the thought.  :evil: :evil: :evil: :rolleyes:

my interest in this subject is sagging............ ....
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Ncdan on July 23, 2019, 09:40:25 PM
my interest in this subject is sagging............ ....
Kind of like a sock with a baseball inside of it😂😂😂😂
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: twowheeladdict on July 24, 2019, 05:32:39 AM
Selling 5000 fewer bikes for any motorcycle manufacturer is a very big deal in today's market. As has been posted, if H-D catches a cold, other manufacturers could catch pneumonia. H-D seems to have a lot of newer and smaller displacement models coming out which should bode well for them going forward. How many V85's does Moto Guzzi need to sell in North America for that bike to be called a success?


H-D losing 46% of their stock price compared to a 50% gain in the S&P 500 in the last 5 years is shocking. It surprises me they've seemingly been so slow to address such obvious market trends. At least they finally seem to have a better focus.


I ride with mostly H-D owners. Most who continue to be stuck like glue to the bar and shield brand. They're simply shocked my Victory hasn't been rebuilt once already and isn't needing to be rebuilt again now that it's coming up on 69K miles. I tell them that at 90K to 100K miles I may add a big bore kit (106" to 117") to up the Hp and Torque numbers another 20 points. 

Every brand, not just H-D, has to figure out what it takes to get entry riders on their bikes by figuring out what they actually want. With Piaggio focusing the Moto Guzzi brand on 750's and 850's maybe they'll be able to grow the brand. But certainly not without a substantially more effective dealer network.

A couple months back it was rumored on this forum that the 1400 line is either going to be trimmed way back or even discontinued altogether. Has there been any further information on the status of the 1400 line of Guzzis?

Everyone is so stuck in the past when it comes to motorcycles in general.  I know people with over 100,000 miles on all kinds of bikes, yet when people come on the forums and ask about the high mileage (insert any brand here), they are asking about bikes about to hit 20,000 miles.  There is definitely a societal misconception about modern motorcycles.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Murray on July 24, 2019, 06:49:35 AM
The category?  Cruiser sales still far surpass all other categories combined if you dont count 3rd world small bikes sales. 

You keep telling yourself that it might even be true in the USA from local observations I'd say no, yes cruisers are a large market.Aalthough I wonder what would happen if you cut out the fleet sale to various law enforcement agencies, actually not much I think the last time the local police department ran the experiment was 30 years ago, there are still stories floating around of how they won't ever be repeating it.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Kev m on July 24, 2019, 07:51:46 AM
You keep telling yourself that it might even be true in the USA from local observations I'd say no, yes cruisers are a large market.Aalthough I wonder what would happen if you cut out the fleet sale to various law enforcement agencies, actually not much I think the last time the local police department ran the experiment was 30 years ago, there are still stories floating around of how they won't ever be repeating it.

Unless something changed it's a statistical fact in the US just based on the fact that Harley owns 50+% of the US street bike market 650cc and up and has for a decade or two. So if you count Harley's "cruiser" sales (I often argue the semantics of it but for this discussion it is fine) and then add any "cruiser" sales from:

Indian, Triumph, Guzzi, JAPanInc. and RE, then you are well beyond the 50% mark probably into the 60-70% mark. Granted the 650cc thing blurs it slightly especially with the growing popularity of smaller and smaller bikes, but still.

I don't think it holds true worldwide, but clearly is so in the US.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Rough Edge racing on July 24, 2019, 08:11:17 AM

I ride with mostly H-D owners. Most who continue to be stuck like glue to the bar and shield brand. They're simply shocked my Victory hasn't been rebuilt once already and isn't needing to be rebuilt again now that it's coming up on 69K miles. I tell them that at 90K to 100K miles I may add a big bore kit (106" to 117") to up the Hp and Torque numbers another 20 points. 


 I hear Harley riders say their Big Twin Evo engine last 100,000 miles if stock and ridden and maintained with some sanity..I have no idea about the twin cam stuff.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Kev m on July 24, 2019, 08:15:38 AM
I hear Harley riders say their Big Twin Evo engine last 100,000 miles if stock and ridden and maintained with some sanity..I have no idea about the twin cam stuff.

Reports are the TCs are even better, especially the hydro tensioners which are lasting 100k without being replaced yet.

As for EVOs, my buddy finished his third IBR this year (43rd place again) on his 250k mile EVO Sporty. Though full disclosure he had to split the cases at 230k to replace a bearing and screwed the job up so he transplanted a donor motor into it at that time.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: kballowe on July 24, 2019, 08:28:16 AM
Dang !

All this talk about Harleys and not a single photograph.

OK, I'll start.


(https://live.staticflickr.com/4357/37081012821_6d4006b76d_b.jpg)
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: TowPro on July 24, 2019, 09:42:15 AM
Last winter (florida) I went into my local HD shop.  being 59 I think I am who they are looking for.  I have been riding since 1972, even owned a Buell Uly.
My first mistake was riding my KTM 690 onto the lot with bright riding gear on, all the sales people walked away.
I walked around the showroom, some old lady (my age) smiled from behind the parts counter but nobody would even help me in bike sales.
I really did not see anything I liked.  I finally made someone talk to me, I inquired that I have seen a Harley street bike that looks like the flat track bike, but it was a 1200.
they took me to this bike with car tires on it and said "here it is".  next they took me to this 750 that reminded me of the Buell Blast.
I kept asking about this XR1200 that I have read about but they did not know what I was talking about.  (later I found out it was way back in 2010 this bike was out)

anyway, I stumbled across a V7III Special, and having owned and enjoyed a V65 some years ago I fell in love.

I have also been to my first bike rally this spring, yes the audience is getting older.  I bought a pair of yellow riding glasses and joked "don't tell my wife they are xray vision" he replied "you don't want that around here, some things you just can un-see"
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Kev m on July 24, 2019, 09:51:12 AM
Last winter (florida) I went into my local HD shop.  being 59 I think I am who they are looking for.  I have been riding since 1972, even owned a Buell Uly.
My first mistake was riding my KTM 690 onto the lot with bright riding gear on, all the sales people walked away.
I walked around the showroom, some old lady (my age) smiled from behind the parts counter but nobody would even help me in bike sales.
I really did not see anything I liked.  I finally made someone talk to me, I inquired that I have seen a Harley street bike that looks like the flat track bike, but it was a 1200.
they took me to this bike with car tires on it and said "here it is".  next they took me to this 750 that reminded me of the Buell Blast.
I kept asking about this XR1200 that I have read about but they did not know what I was talking about.  (later I found out it was way back in 2010 this bike was out)

I've said 100x on here that people generally find what they EXPECT to find.

I've been frequenting HD dealers for decades wearing Aerostich, riding in on Guzzis, BMWs, Ducati's or whatever. Often times sales staff would greet me in the parking lot when I arrived and talk about the bike/brand I was on. Especially with Guzzis.

I have rarely ever seen anything but friendly, courteous staff.

Hell my old HD dealer used to perform state inspections for free. They eventually changed that policy to ON HD only (since they were obviously using it to promote repairs/service). But before making that change they inspected multiple metrics for me. Techs literally argued over who would get to ride my brand new Breva 1100.

But like most I tend to find what I expect.

I'm just an optimist.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: sib on July 24, 2019, 10:01:53 AM
Funny thing about aging.... Today's youth will be tomorrow's grumpy old men.

And a lot of guys who didn't get to ride in their youth (or right more expensive brands) will be able to later.

Either way it will hardly effect the grumpy old curmudgeons here's.
Some of us have actually aged INTO motorcycling.  I started riding 6 years ago, at 71.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: SemperVee on July 24, 2019, 11:45:10 AM
 Sold my HD stock years ago when I saw they were running out of Old Fat guys to pander to...
Owning and riding 14 HD's led me to happily owning a Victory Cross Country Tour.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Lannis on July 24, 2019, 02:30:06 PM
I've said 100x on here that people generally find what they EXPECT to find.

I........

But like most I tend to find what I expect.

I'm just an optimist.

We've had three different dynasties running Harley dealers in our town since the 1940s.

First one (1940 -1970) was an old crotchety (well, he was old when I first was there in 1969) guy who was decent and would talk to you even if you were a kid on a Yamaha.

Next one (1971 -1981) was a guy who was the worst-case "Biker" type ... all about colors and had a "posse" around him and wouldn't have much to do with "straights".   He ended up in a Federal penitentiary.

Next one (1982 -1984), I actually bought a new Harley from.   A few months later, I paid money in advance for some accessories, and he left town and took the entire shop with him over the weekend.   Never got the accessories or the money back.  A straight-up thief.

The guys now seem to be decent types, will talk to anyone, and actually rooted through their accessory exhaust clamp bins for a clamp that would fit one of my Guzzis; were pleased that they found one to fit.

So it's hard for me to characterize "Harley Shops" any particular way.   I've seen it all, just in one location ...

Lannis
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Gliderjohn on July 24, 2019, 02:36:33 PM
Don't know about the current ownership, but the last time I stopped in the Wichita area H-D dealer (previous owners) I was on my Norge and no one would give me the time of day. When I went back out to leave there were to techs looking it over however.
GliderJohn
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Motormike on July 24, 2019, 06:48:33 PM
As a Harley owner, when people start talking about "high-milage" Harley Davidsons, I'm always reminded of the old hammer joke, "You know, a good hammer will last forever.  As long as you replace the head and the handle every once in awhile!"
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Ncdan on July 24, 2019, 08:18:27 PM
I made some good money in HD in the 90’s. Fortunately I saw the writing on the wall just in time and cashed out.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: LowRyter on July 24, 2019, 08:23:50 PM
I made some good money in HD in the 90’s. Fortunately I saw the writing on the wall just in time and cashed out.

Dang!  Why don't you work an investment thread here on WG.  We can all be millionaires.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Lannis on July 24, 2019, 09:25:41 PM
I made some good money in HD in the 90’s. Fortunately I saw the writing on the wall just in time and cashed out.

Hmm.  I've seen that "writing on the wall" before, and cashed out of something, and then watched it go on a rocket ride upwards ....

I did good on Enron in the 90s, though.   Made a bunch of money and "just happened" to sell it all just before the mushroom cloud ....

Sometimes you're the bug, sometimes the windshield ....

Lannis
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: oldbike54 on July 24, 2019, 09:49:53 PM
Don't know about the current ownership, but the last time I stopped in the Wichita area H-D dealer (previous owners) I was on my Norge and no one would give me the time of day. When I went back out to leave there were to techs looking it over however.
GliderJohn

 For several years RT 66 HD in Tulsa had a shop foreman who only rode Moto Guzzi .

 Dusty
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: not-fishing on July 24, 2019, 10:52:07 PM
Ah according to this graph HD stock has been falling for the last 5 years from a high of $ 61.98 to the present price of $ 35.69.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: reidy on July 25, 2019, 04:57:00 AM
I think part of the problem for Harley, at least in Australia, is they spent many years promoting the bad boy outlaw image to cashed up professionals as there main customers. It was a brilliant marketing program that raked in good money, by not only selling bikes but every accessory and item of clothing you needed to get out of your business suit on Friday and be a real biker for the weekend.   

The world has changed and it does not seem that being a bad boy is on trend at the moment, more likely an environmentalist vegan. Since the campaign of instant biker was so successful it will be hard to change the image. Some how I don't think Harley would get away with "you meet the nicest people on a Harley" slogan. Also the whole leather and vegan thing does not go together real well.

Steve     

Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: blu guzz on July 25, 2019, 06:32:26 AM
from my experience, there are still many places in the USA where the "bad boy" image is going strong.  in fact, i can see a strong market as rider's girth keeps expanding and the need to replace those vests rears its head. 
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: kballowe on July 25, 2019, 07:16:56 AM
Meh.  Motorcycles.  Who cares ?  Certainly not the newest generations.
 :sad:

Our local Honda/Yamaha/Kawasaki/Suzuki/Polaris dealer is mostly selling those 4-wheeled side-by-sides.  Their inventory of 2-wheeled items is a fraction of what it was just five years ago.  And they're (lately) complaining about poor sales of those 4-wheelers.

I think they're all in a bit of a jam - but it's worse for Harley, because they have nothing but 2-wheeled items to sell.

In the mean time, I continue to do my part to help keep the MoCo alive.

 :grin: :grin:  :grin:
 :bike-037:



(https://live.staticflickr.com/841/42442618274_0258411032_b.jpg)

Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Ncdan on July 25, 2019, 08:02:58 AM
Dang!  Why don't you work an investment thread here on WG.  We can all be millionaires.
I didn’t become a millionaire from Harley  Davison’s stock and besides I stopped working on my first million many years ago any just started on the next one😂😂😂. I think I’ll buy some Guzzi stock to contribute to my next million, lol
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Tusayan on July 25, 2019, 08:30:42 AM
Motorcycles.  Who cares ?  Certainly not the newest generations.

I think this article has good data - motorcycle sales over roughly the last decade have been roughly the same (slightly higher) than sales in the 1990s.  There was a bubble in between, and some people thought the bubble would last forever.

https://ultimatemotorcycling.com/2018/02/12/motorcycle-sales-patterns-explained-sky-not-falling/


(https://i.ibb.co/M1FCLLL/91-A2-FD58-CCE6-44-A8-A566-0-BFE0952-ED27.jpg) (https://ibb.co/M1FCLLL)
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Lannis on July 25, 2019, 09:34:39 AM
Meh.  Motorcycles.  Who cares ?  Certainly not the newest generations.
 :sad:



Depends on where you look.   Couple weeks ago I spent three days wading through kids on motorcycles up to my neck.   Mid Ohio AMA Vintage Motorcycle Days.

Kids everywhere, from pre-schoolers on tiny minibikes, to babies in strollers being towed behind a pit bike, middle schoolers and teenagers buzzing up and down up and down up and down on antique dirt bikes, guys in their twenties rooting through boxes of dirty rusty old parts that only someone restoring an old bike from the ground up would be interested in ....

Tens of thousands of them.   I have NO fear for the future of motorcycling ....

Lannis
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Mayor_of_BBQ on July 25, 2019, 09:47:50 AM
I think part of the problem for Harley, at least in Australia, is they spent many years promoting the bad boy outlaw image to cashed up professionals as there main customers. It was a brilliant marketing program that raked in good money, by not only selling bikes but every accessory and item of clothing you needed to get out of your business suit on Friday and be a real biker for the weekend.   

The world has changed and it does not seem that being a bad boy is on trend at the moment, more likely an environmentalist vegan. Since the campaign of instant biker was so successful it will be hard to change the image. Some how I don't think Harley would get away with "you meet the nicest people on a Harley" slogan. Also the whole leather and vegan thing does not go together real well.

Steve   

This guy gets it!

I've been surrounded by Harley people my entire life...  The whole biker rally, Myrtle Beach confederate flag cruising with lame classic rock blaring, fake badass image, leather vest & fingerless gloves but no helmet, drunkenly doing burnouts with a cigarette hanging out of the mouth, throttle blipping & wallet chains, "If you can read this the bitch fell off" T-shirts, skulls & chrome and all the rest.... It's a bunch of dumb bullshit and people dont want to be associated with it.

That's my take at least.  Harley (and their fans to a greater extent) have presented this image as the Harley Lifestyle since at least the 70's...  "most people arent badass enough to ride a harley".. whelp, seems like most people are in agreement. 


EDIT: so that is to say, it doesnt matter to me what Harley makes, even the bikes I'm kinda interested in (such as the newer Roadsters or the XR1200 or the Livewire).... I would never buy a bike with HD on the tank because I dont want to be associated with that lifestyle...  And IMHO, the lifestyle IS the brand
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Lannis on July 25, 2019, 09:55:43 AM
This guy gets it!

I've been surrounded by Harley people my entire life...  The whole biker rally, Myrtle Beach confederate flag cruising with lame classic rock blaring, fake badass image, leather vest & fingerless gloves but no helmet, drunkenly doing burnouts with a cigarette hanging out of the mouth, throttle blipping & wallet chains, "If you can read this the bitch fell off" T-shirts, skulls & chrome and all the rest.... It's a bunch of dumb bullshit and people dont want to be associated with it.


I agree with your and the previous post, but I'm not sure I see a diminution in the number of people playing that lifestyle or assuming that badass image.    Looks to me like there are as many as there ever have been, and there are young ones coming in at the same rate that the old ones are hanging up their chains and nosepickers .... ?

Lannis
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Kev m on July 25, 2019, 10:37:12 AM
That's my take at least.  Harley (and their fans to a greater extent) have presented this image as the Harley Lifestyle since at least the 70's...  "most people arent badass enough to ride a harley".. whelp, seems like most people are in agreement. 

EDIT: so that is to say, it doesnt matter to me what Harley makes, even the bikes I'm kinda interested in (such as the newer Roadsters or the XR1200 or the Livewire).... I would never buy a bike with HD on the tank because I dont want to be associated with that lifestyle...  And IMHO, the lifestyle IS the brand

Well, not for nothing, but that seems uncomfortably close to making decisions based on what other people will think of you.

And the funny part is that to the 99% of people who don't ride all motorcycles are Harleys or Crotch Rockets, so they probably don't see you any differently than you fear regardless of the fact that you're not on THAT "brand".
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: kballowe on July 25, 2019, 10:59:21 AM
And the funny part is that to the 99% of people who don't ride - all motorcycles are Harleys or Crotch Rockets.

Hahahahahaha  that is sooo true.   I ran into a lady that offered up a whole sack full of Harley t-shirts.  It seems that her dear, departed husband rode a Kawasaki cruiser, and all of his friends and relatives had bought him Harley t-shirts as gifts, over the years.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: dxhall on July 25, 2019, 01:10:45 PM
Harley’s fall is a consequence of its decision to market its bikes as part of a lifestyle.  In the mid 2000s, there were many who aspired to that lifestyle - thus, the dentist-during-the-week, biker-on-the-weekend riders.

Harley is still marketing itself that way.  If you don’t believe it, go to a Harley dealer, as I did last weekend to get a part for the Sportster.  I’m not exaggerating when I say that I was the only person in the place without tattoos.

That lifestyle (not tattoos,though) is falling from favor.  But Harley is stuck with it.  That’s why its small bikes haven’t sold well, and why I think its electric bike will be a bust.  Those bikes aren’t consistent with the lifestyle Harley has been selling for the last 30 years.  Can you imagine a shaved-head, bearded, tattooed guy on an electric Harley?  I can’t.

The other big manufacturers never marketed themselves that way, and are now not hemmed in by the changing marketplace.  Honda, for example, sells crotch rockets, Gold Wings, and Africa Twins from the same dealerships.  Compare that variety to the bikes on a Harley showroom floor.

The drop in Harley stock prices reflects the market’s evaluation of Harley’s future.  It’s not a bright future.

Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Darren Williams on July 25, 2019, 02:32:16 PM
"I’m not exaggerating when I say that I was the only person in the place without tattoos."

You could say that about any location now-a-days!    :tongue:

I expect HD management has a better handle on what they need to do for the future than I do. They still sell a lot of branded merchandise to go along with their core bike products.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Gliderjohn on July 25, 2019, 03:15:07 PM
Sometimes big ships are hard to turn. Look at Montgomery Ward and Sears. Ward is gone and Sears is a shadow of it's former self. H-D could go the same way if not very careful.
GliderJohn
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Sheepdog on July 25, 2019, 03:15:38 PM
There is a general assumption that Harley has not kept up with modern standards for performance, comfort, and convenience, that isn't necessarily so. I wouldn't hesitate to consider a 2009 or newer FL model. By every firsthand account I've heard, these bikes have stiff frames, decent brakes, outrageous conveniences, and good build quality. They even have better cornering clearance and water cooled heads on the most recent examples. If I was in the market for a big tourer, I'd definitely have a Road/Electra-Glide or Road King on my list.

The rest of their lineup leaves me cold and the fact is, the HD FLs are too heavy for me. OTOH, I wouldn't mind one of those mid 2000s Sportys that have a carburetor, rubber mounting, and a 5-speed...
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Antietam Classic Cycle on July 25, 2019, 03:25:33 PM
Sometimes big ships are hard to turn. Look at Montgomery Ward and Sears. Ward is gone and Sears is a shadow of it's former self. H-D could go the same way if not very careful.
GliderJohn

Not quite gone... https://www.wards.com/
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: rocker59 on July 25, 2019, 03:41:11 PM
Not quite gone... https://www.wards.com/

I guess you know that the original Montgomery Ward was liquidated.

The current online retailer using the name, bought the name after the original company's demise, hoping to capitalize on its familiarity.  They have no relation.  The new company is Direct Marketing Services Inc., an Iowa-based direct marketing company.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Lannis on July 25, 2019, 03:47:30 PM
I guess you know that the original Montgomery Ward was liquidated.

The current online retailer using the name, bought the name after the original company's demise, hoping to capitalize on its familiarity.  They have no relation. 

On the other hand, that sort of thing doesn't slow down the posts on bike forums like:

"Have you seen the new BSA Motorcycles?!"

"I read where Gilera is back in business now!"

"I hear that the Henderson Motorcycle Company is planning a new line of bikes!  My great-grandpa had a Henderson"

Capitalizing on a dead name that's still glowing from the effects of fungus on it is an old motorcycling company ploy .....

Lannis
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: rocker59 on July 25, 2019, 04:02:55 PM
On the other hand, that sort of thing doesn't slow down the posts on bike forums like:

"Have you seen the new BSA Motorcycles?!"

"I read where Gilera is back in business now!"

"I hear that the Henderson Motorcycle Company is planning a new line of bikes!  My great-grandpa had a Henderson"

Capitalizing on a dead name that's still glowing from the effects of fungus on it is an old motorcycling company ploy .....

Lannis

Don't forget Norton and Vincent.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Antietam Classic Cycle on July 25, 2019, 04:09:37 PM
I guess you know that the original Montgomery Ward was liquidated.

The current online retailer using the name, bought the name after the original company's demise, hoping to capitalize on its familiarity.  They have no relation.  The new company is Direct Marketing Services Inc., an Iowa-based direct marketing company.

As long as the name lives on, then it's not quite "dead" though is it.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Tom on July 25, 2019, 09:13:50 PM
Indian Motorcycles & Triumph Motorcycles come to mind.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: reidy on July 25, 2019, 09:38:41 PM
I don't think Harley will go broke but they may struggle for a few years unless they can successfully re-brand themselves. I agree that there are still a lot of people that want the bad boy image. I just don't think many of them have a wallet as thick as the average accountant or dentist.

Harley also used to advertise in Australia back in the 80's about how little depreciation you would get on a Harley. It was true and the held there value. At the moment the market is swamped with second hand Harley's with low kilometers with high prices. This also puts off people wanting to buy into the Harley image.   

I have ridden a few Harley's and in my opinion they make a good product for its intended use. I would not by a Harley because I don't want to be part of the lifestyle. To the poster that commented that half the public think a motorcycle is a Harley that is true. When you tell them it is not and is brand x they will tell you that it is not as good as a Harley. In my opinion Harley had one of the best marketing teams in the world.

 The amount of people that I have known that have purchased a Harley and within months started growing facial hair, dressing differently and acting like they are king shit because they are a tough Harley rider is incredible. I think there biggest challenge is to move away from being a T shirt company that has bikes as an accessory to a motorcycle company.

They have always made a touring bike so they may have to push the "get out and see the world and enjoy the natural wonders before it is destroyed" or "do it on a Harley and be part of the environment instead of in a car and be isolated". Instead of a bike rally in a downtown bar drinking 20 beers we could go back to camping in nature and enjoying that part of life. Think obout going into the local Harley dealer and buying a pair of gortex ridding boots that double as hiking boots. They should be able to sell them for $500 a pair.

Steve   
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: canuck750 on July 25, 2019, 11:40:52 PM
The decline in Harley Davidson stock value is alarming, I question if it foreshadows a collapse in sales similar to what the British motorcycle industry witnessed in the late 60's?

Harley's marketing of a 'lifestyle', selling everything from socks to sunglasses has been a great success, but fashion trends pass and public interest moves on.

What is the percentage of Harley owners who bought the brand to join the 'it club' only to find they really don't ride much and the shine starts to wear off all that pretty paint and chrome? I see more late model Harleys for sale than any other brand, and all those used bikes don't help new model sales.

Harley could build anything the competition offers, probably to an equal level of quality but it appears Harley loyalists prefer the current design. Attempts to break the mold have failed to attract new buyers or appeal to current HD owners.

Seems like a case of being a victim of their own success.


Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Lannis on July 25, 2019, 11:51:30 PM
Or maybe it's just time.

In this fast-changing world, how likely is it that a company that depends on consumer likes and trends, and who is tied closely to technology and infrastructure, can be successful for over 100 years?   I mean, it's amazing when it DOES happen.

We've already mentioned Sears and Montgomery Ward; there's JC Penney and Macy's and Greyhound Bus and Universal/Columbia/United Artists Pictures and Boeing.

Not to mention our very own Moto Guzzi.   

It's amazing that any of them make it that long.

Lannis
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Rough Edge racing on July 26, 2019, 06:40:03 AM
  Around 1950 Harley petitioned the US gov't for protection againt the increasing importation of British bikes hurting Harley sales ...The gov't declined...Around 1980 Harley was again in trouble from its decline from AMF ownership and the company was trying to recover with the introduction of the EVO engine...US gov't did help this time..
  Many of you hate Harley and the riders. But it was quite the maketing success... I often shake my head looking at the weekend Harley warriors and their dressed up bikes...But the riders I have talked to have been friendly ...I also find many European bike riders to be an arrogant bunch at times with fancy brand name boots and leathers talking about craft beers...
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: s1120 on July 26, 2019, 07:08:41 AM
One thing that was touched on here...  There are a LOT of HD's out there!!  and they sold a LOT of bikes in the 90's, and 2000's...  And really from the late 80's on up...really started to build a darn good product...  So this HUGE glut of bikes out in the market are still going strong...  and there was a LOT of bikes put out..  So I guess to some point they have been a victim to their own success. I mean.. you want a new touring HD...  you have a LOT of options and they are not all new... 
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: blu guzz on July 26, 2019, 07:29:27 AM
i have been bitten by the harley bug from time to time.  i bought a 1200 sporty in 92 after they switched to the evo engine, belt drive and 5 speed.  it was a very good motorcycle and never had a moment's problem except for draining the tank too fast.  again, in 2006, i bought a wide glide right after they put the 6 speed on and made a host of smaller improvements to the dyna chassis.  it was an excellent motorcycle and i put 17,000 miles on it in 2.5 years.  during these stints, i enjoyed reading about the lifestyle events such as sturgis and daytona but never actually participated.  i have to admit that it was fun to be part of a big club, even thought i was only a small part.  i bought some, but not much chrome during those times.  you could buy something for the bike for as little as $25. 
so, i have nothing but fond memories of my harleys.  never say never, the bug may bite again.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Ncdan on July 26, 2019, 07:30:25 AM
This guy gets it!

I've been surrounded by Harley people my entire life...  The whole biker rally, Myrtle Beach confederate flag cruising with lame classic rock blaring, fake badass image, leather vest & fingerless gloves but no helmet, drunkenly doing burnouts with a cigarette hanging out of the mouth, throttle blipping & wallet chains, "If you can read this the bitch fell off" T-shirts, skulls & chrome and all the rest.... It's a bunch of dumb bullshit and people dont want to be associated with it.

That's my take at least.  Harley (and their fans to a greater extent) have presented this image as the Harley Lifestyle since at least the 70's...  "most people arent badass enough to ride a harley".. whelp, seems like most people are in agreement. 


EDIT: so that is to say, it doesnt matter to me what Harley makes, even the bikes I'm kinda interested in (such as the newer Roadsters or the XR1200 or the Livewire).... I would never buy a bike with HD on the tank because I dont want to be associated with that lifestyle...  And IMHO, the lifestyle IS the brand
The man on the bike sets the standard and not the badge on the tank. I’ve owned and ridden most of my miles on a Harley Electric Glide. I didn’t advertise for them, I’d didn’t own a leather vest, there was no chain attached to my wallet and I was no more a badass on the Harley than I am on my Guzzi:)
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: rocker59 on July 26, 2019, 08:56:33 AM
Indian Motorcycles & Triumph Motorcycles come to mind.

Triumph is a little different from the other brand revivals.  John Bloor bought the Meriden Works in 1983 when it slipped into bankruptcy.  After his purchase, the old factory was shuttered and he started work on a new factory in Hinkley.  During that interim, Bonnevilles were still available, built under contract by Les Harris.

Every other revived brand has been liquidated for years, before the name brand being revived by a non-related entity.

I have to say, I applaud Polaris for their Indian revival.  They have done it right!  I wish more large companies would do similar with some of the great old moto brands.  It gets old watching some underfunded fly-by-nighters run good old-time name brands into the ground.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Lannis on July 26, 2019, 09:08:08 AM
 
  Many of you hate Harley and the riders.


Honestly, I don't think that's a fair statement.    Maybe you could quote a post that you believe indicates "Hatred" of HD motorcycles and/or their riders?

The term "hate" has almost lost any meaning in today's language.   It's too often used to describe the modern crime of "Noticing".    I can certainly "notice" characteristics of the majority of HD riders (uniforms, group riding results, etc) without "hating" anyone or anything.

Motorcycle riding is not done, by any of us, in a vacuum.   It's as much a social activity as it is a transportation activity.   On the road, you are constantly meeting people, talking to people, having people come up to you and ask questions; and the experience differs depending on what brand bike you are on.   It's just human nature, you can't really get away from it.   

Having owned and ridden 3 HD Big Twins, I know that the experiences of riding a Harley, a Guzzi, or an old Brit are different, and I've chosen which ones I like, just like I choose what eateries I go into ....

Lannis
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Charles in Lake Charles on July 26, 2019, 09:28:09 AM
Over five years Harley stock has fallen almost exactly the same as Ford https://www.google.com/search?tbm=fin&ei=MQ07XeDiJYKusAWhg6iwBA&stick=H4sIAAAAAAAAAONgecRoyi3w8sc9YSmdSWtOXmNU4-IKzsgvd80rySypFJLgYoOy-KR4uLj0c_UNzKtyDUuKeQDZGs9vOgAAAA&q=NYSE%3A+HOG&oq=harley&gs_l=finance-immersive.1.0.81l3.1786.7054.0.11053.9.9.0.0.0.0.239.946.2j5j1.8.0....0...1c.1.64.finance-immersive..1.8.942.0...0.Ld9vBCZKTec#scso=_Pg07XbHDC4jysQXp6ZDoDA6:0&smids=/m/07zm0nx&wptab=COMPARE (https://www.google.com/search?tbm=fin&ei=MQ07XeDiJYKusAWhg6iwBA&stick=H4sIAAAAAAAAAONgecRoyi3w8sc9YSmdSWtOXmNU4-IKzsgvd80rySypFJLgYoOy-KR4uLj0c_UNzKtyDUuKeQDZGs9vOgAAAA&q=NYSE%3A+HOG&oq=harley&gs_l=finance-immersive.1.0.81l3.1786.7054.0.11053.9.9.0.0.0.0.239.946.2j5j1.8.0....0...1c.1.64.finance-immersive..1.8.942.0...0.Ld9vBCZKTec#scso=_Pg07XbHDC4jysQXp6ZDoDA6:0&smids=/m/07zm0nx&wptab=COMPARE)
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Rough Edge racing on July 26, 2019, 09:30:23 AM
Honestly, I don't think that's a fair statement.    Maybe you could quote a post that you believe indicates "Hatred" of HD motorcycles and/or their riders?

The term "hate" has almost lost any meaning in today's language.   It's too often used to describe the modern crime of "Noticing".    I can certainly "notice" characteristics of the majority of HD riders (uniforms, group riding results, etc) without "hating" anyone or anything.

Motorcycle riding is not done, by any of us, in a vacuum.   It's as much a social activity as it is a transportation activity.   On the road, you are constantly meeting people, talking to people, having people come up to you and ask questions; and the experience differs depending on what brand bike you are on.   It's just human nature, you can't really get away from it.   


Having owned and ridden 3 HD Big Twins, I know that the experiences of riding a Harley, a Guzzi, or an old Brit are different, and I've chosen which ones I like, just like I choose what eateries I go into ....

Lannis

   
  From the Mayor of BBQ on this thread,
 
Quote
I've been surrounded by Harley people my entire life...  The whole biker rally, Myrtle Beach confederate flag cruising with lame classic rock blaring, fake badass image, leather vest & fingerless gloves but no helmet, drunkenly doing burnouts with a cigarette hanging out of the mouth, throttle blipping & wallet chains, "If you can read this the bitch fell off" T-shirts, skulls & chrome and all the rest.... It's a bunch of dumb bullshit and people dont want to be associated with it.
  We can mince words here, perhaps I should have said  "extreme dislike" but his statement speaks for it's self...however, He is allowed to voice his opinion just like the rest of us ...
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: rocker59 on July 26, 2019, 09:35:26 AM

Motorcycle riding is not done, by any of us, in a vacuum.   It's as much a social activity as it is a transportation activity.   On the road, you are constantly meeting people, talking to people, having people come up to you and ask questions; and the experience differs depending on what brand bike you are on.   It's just human nature, you can't really get away from it.   

Having owned and ridden 3 HD Big Twins, I know that the experiences of riding a Harley, a Guzzi, or an old Brit are different, and I've chosen which ones I like, just like I choose what eateries I go into ....

Lannis

I almost dreaded stopping for gas sometimes when I had my 1998 Triumph Sprint Executive.  With its bold "Triumph" script on the tank, it would attract attention at every gas stop.  I used to joke that if every old man that said he had a '68 Bonneville really did have an old Bonneville, the Hinkley Works would've never slipped into bankruptcy!

Agreed, having owned 2 Harleys, 1 BMW, 1 Triumph, 1 Ducati, and 7 Guzzis, the experiences are different.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Sykestone8886 on July 26, 2019, 09:50:29 AM
I've owned many HD's over the years currently still have three including a couple vintage. They have been very reliable and have many good memories touring out west. The thing that really gets to me now is these guys with super obnoxious loud exhaust and louder yet sterios that have no respect for anyone else. I told a young kid the other day at a gas stop that was drawing quite a few angry stares with his loud pipes, that your not helping the motorcycling image any. Your the kind that brings on more regulations. He respectfully said I never gave that a thought and drive away at a nice mellow pace. Lately I've been just cruising around on my v7, quite relaxing !!!
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Lannis on July 26, 2019, 10:04:26 AM
   
  From the Mayor of BBQ on this thread,

I've been surrounded by Harley people my entire life...  The whole biker rally, Myrtle Beach confederate flag cruising with lame classic rock blaring, fake badass image, leather vest & fingerless gloves but no helmet, drunkenly doing burnouts with a cigarette hanging out of the mouth, throttle blipping & wallet chains, "If you can read this the bitch fell off" T-shirts, skulls & chrome and all the rest.... It's a bunch of dumb bullshit and people dont want to be associated with it.

We can mince words here, perhaps I should have said  "extreme dislike" but his statement speaks for it's self...however, He is allowed to voice his opinion just like the rest of us ...

Thanks.   But here's what I mean.   If I go to any beach during a "Bike Week", or if you do, you'll see EXACTLY what has been described above, the only judgment call being "lame" on the classic music; maybe it's not lame.   But the rest of the description, including "drunken" is perfectly accurate as far as what is actually happening in reality as well as the "tone" of the event.   

It's also a fact that many people don't want to be associated with it, so that's also a statement of fact.

So now we're down to what's your opinion of what's going on there, from your own desire/undesire to be associated with it and its trappings, to the impression it leaves on the larger public as to what "motorcycling" is all about.

I think it's silly, I think its derogatory to our whole sport, I think it hurts us all a little bit in peoples' attitude towards us on the road.    I don't object to "dumb bullsh!t" as a summary; however, that's a long way from "Hatred" of the HD brand or the people that I meet on them on the road, whether you use a euphemism like "extreme dislike" for "hate" or not.   Maybe that's just me, though.

Lannis

Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Kev m on July 26, 2019, 10:43:33 AM
Yesterday morning felt like a smallblock morning.

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/HxyOUt1RdHZ8a9P4_fA348h0VQ_ugVwmywR0lklfqmmoz8IcSoxmjz3M6tHnIzcjVR5AUEkUpQWyXtkOMidoxqrY4kMuk-fhg-DeStRgja_xOX7KecWwAnybCI57sZYtlhAHgvOkzND0i4NluKfy-PAn_W_WVUVdbUThA3nEz8kICeXrYEu17QSToyeYoa1Rkapd98e8o57oLjcyPvqOpmkbj0o9q0FaQ-w1FOPy3-32YuDjUBaAUiOB1YQgnsu5UqOn5Ge80Cqr3fWH372s74Ua3MHtLKyRJkM4j4BkzwZn9ZiqA-xBXnpttOm07HmrZNMcACODpu7VFgYUXve4YVbPmtj0J1QcI1oMk_trkUmdyB8fZQFsCqQdEO7Pm-nwDLsOF_SuByO7BmepWg5_5mibIu1s3zDGRW4SK775k2HT-rJG4mWw2l92D1gj5iaGx6Igrv7JTSx3ufBhQcV92wXeQpDNfk7OFmygQgdlZG_F2KzoapblKZsurhD6jwfZtaGbaz1NVi0eScWCGl48S5d5lKILmXHorwKLQ9Kh_2H-B2sKlCHwXD4nBzshq3_S7ExeHj5U3iZRk3gP5hQmYkDxV_QqIGHZvv5d9MIgfQlMJ1ZHydfDITGeM6VsmsPztIMtsLEQt4vFFER0UHp0Ka7DuulsvwIlFjvXA04MgrXH_qAz29IYLzMfPrazb0T3spzQSFR2qBJw3cW9YPtHhXOfwg=w678-h903-no)

But this morning felt like a big block morning:

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/Z5yzWbX92qdVWU5pc5w3rvxYCWVa-OP2dKHhUAO1VnnPYkyuV7cEwav9Sb7RYDfLgUrA4vJSoea-a3FPeZvt4BbQn2sGUTpGO226kj7JyrIht-ZV-xsCi5vv2iQqeCAO1mcvNh2vQMMx6zPqwAq8SpZA3Eoz6XfVVTIMrgxgNlQnUF7GNO-Hz7cJ_DV4ider1GHUd0AqTYsIVvtIvPuwsPs_YplkQzJim38VSOzkkhBRbPfv3bz1NZ16EN2AdmrmOaQ6LHhCQCXc4-dW322GtNynVZYs-GMzeWjrUsuy8vh8PWhbLmAQegyO--Rws_q82wpNY5tKdIH_0wvZZ_BFHIj0lG7geUrnEkfBuUkurBH8mPJLr740rc9XHglAjs21LtQcI-2ttrXPYWuwRTuRm07Tq_2W5U-tf3DuFxhQVbHAE9ypsDOKrUUP7YPvtT7Mxy5pCg_3YmkU6-h9stskLj-DdvdQSLAs1q2u8qd12Vzy5gEfbdtm71kWS8R0WNhFHDuFJXIYXb6qJrCQ7LfT5bbayWZZOHyAQB9GZnjMVvWBcsgpIvMmWP2L1CJS8HYRSVZFv4AATydovF9zQLKX7lwJQ48Nnsk9R9Ujn4M7K1DoqdaN0cgrb7R_mgIl1Hh5yKorqdv2dRb98XSQOLPvaCwOhWHQYVVeYO3Cft2JJ1kdBvBbeQLLCJ5bb--B1unHnjbxyOjxb6JrKrYYViSbq9W6mg=w678-h903-no)

A lot of the same roads, two very different experiences. Both pretty awesome. Very glad to have both in the fleet.

Ya know I was thinking one thing on the RK today. I (and many) talk a lot of about the size of the FLH Harleys, and that's for good reason, they're BIG. But before I bought this one I spent a number of years riding every big classic touring bike that interested me and something occurred to me on this morning's ride.

After riding the Victory tourers, the Cali 1400, the Indian tourers (all versions with windshields instead of fairings) and even the Triumph RIII ONE of the reasons I bought the RK is the rest were TOO BIG.

I know, you're saying wait a minute the Cali weighs less, and it does, and it's ALMOST the same length as the RK, but it's got 3 inches more wheelbase, is wider at the tank, and it has a stupid fat rear tire. The impression I get from the saddle of the Cali is of a bike that has even more ponderous a mass than it does.

And the Vic and Indians, forget about it - they were up to a full FOOT longer than the RK, with 2-4" more wheelbase, and bulbous tanks and just mass - mass - mass.

Anyway, I don't know what the future holds for Harley or Guzzi or Triumph, or .... but I hope they all keep producing great bikes.

Certainly I think the new Softail line was a real step in the right direction for Harley. I hope they get their entry level bikes sorted and that they don't screw the pooch with the new water-cooled stuff. Time will tell.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: LowRyter on July 26, 2019, 10:50:31 AM
Harley mirrors the rest of the motorcycle business.   We're still in hangover from the credit boom and bust of '08.  The younger folks have never gotten those years of buying power back since.  They've lost the window on interest in motorcycles and moved on.   They're focussing on necessities, building a nest egg, moving to urban areas, and not interested in frivolous purchases and have come to terms with an austere lifestyle and urban living.  Until wages and opportunity improve, we'll see this continue to happen for other expensive hobbies through successive generations.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: roadscum on July 26, 2019, 11:29:23 AM
…..



Certainly I think the new Softail line was a real step in the right direction for Harley. .

Kev and I are like thinkers on this one. In the late 90's I owned two RK's,  took one across country twice. It worked well for my touring needs, they worked better for me then the '04 RG I owned for a few years. Now shopping new Softail Deluxe. It's end of model year and the local dealers, with a little arm twisting, are offering great deals.  Think about that Kev...…. :grin:

Never bonded with the look of the Guzzi 1400's. the cylinders poking through the tank pokes me in the eye.
My Scout is a far better bike then I/ expected and hands down my V7 III brings the biggest smile to my face.  :bow:

Paul

Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Ncdan on July 26, 2019, 11:43:32 AM
This picture says it all to me. A great day of riding with my son and we both rode
Both the HD and the CalVin and both loved every mile on both. Personally I really don’t care about  ones opinion of either of the great iconic machines it’s all about the ride and fellowship and not the brand. God bless America and Harley Davidson:)
(https://i.ibb.co/dQR3mQt/609-B4587-2263-4204-9-F33-C008-BBC64-FC9.jpg) (https://ibb.co/dQR3mQt)
 
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: rocker59 on July 26, 2019, 12:19:44 PM
This picture says it all to me. A great day of riding with my son and we both rode
Both the HD and the 1400 and both loved every mile on both. Personally I really don’t care about  ones opinion of either of the great iconic machines it’s all about the ride and fellowship and not the brand. God bless America and Harley Davidson:)
(https://i.ibb.co/dQR3mQt/609-B4587-2263-4204-9-F33-C008-BBC64-FC9.jpg) (https://ibb.co/dQR3mQt)


Not seeing a 1400 in the pic, but that's a nice looking CalVin.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: oldbike54 on July 26, 2019, 12:46:18 PM
 My nephew the Harley salesman isn't anymore , after 10 years he decided to give it up . My older sister who is his MIL asked if he was gonna need an entire new wardrobe  :grin:

 Dusty
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: MGrego on July 26, 2019, 12:56:02 PM

(https://i.ibb.co/61mPvb3/IMG-3123.jpg) (https://ibb.co/61mPvb3)


Not long ago my riding buddies and I went out on 3 different brands, a Harley, an Indian, and a Guzzi.  Great fun ! 

--- We don't get hung up on the "brand", we just enjoy the riding experience and leave the cliche behind...
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Lannis on July 26, 2019, 12:59:17 PM

(https://i.ibb.co/61mPvb3/IMG-3123.jpg) (https://ibb.co/61mPvb3)


Not long ago my riding buddies and I went out on 3 different brands, a Harley, an Indian, and a Guzzi.  Great fun ! 

--- We don't get hung up on the "brand", we just enjoy the riding experience and leave the cliche behind...

Well, of course friends and fellow riders don't get hung up on the brand.

It's all them other millions of folks out on the roads .... !

Lannis
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Ncdan on July 26, 2019, 01:27:06 PM
Not seeing a 1400 in the pic, but that's a nice looking CalVin.
Thanks for the correction Rocker, I pulled up the wrong priceless moment. That was taken when I had the Calvin but we do have the same Harley and the same son:)
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: LowRyter on July 26, 2019, 05:23:24 PM

(https://i.ibb.co/61mPvb3/IMG-3123.jpg) (https://ibb.co/61mPvb3)


Not long ago my riding buddies and I went out on 3 different brands, a Harley, an Indian, and a Guzzi.  Great fun ! 

--- We don't get hung up on the "brand", we just enjoy the riding experience and leave the cliche behind...

pretty easy to say when you're on a V11 Sport and everyone else is on a cruiser........   :evil: 

I am sure the other guys feel a little jealous.    :wink:
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: twowheeladdict on July 27, 2019, 06:32:31 PM
Sold my HD stock years ago when I saw they were running out of Old Fat guys to pander to...
Owning and riding 14 HD's led me to happily owning a Victory Cross Country Tour.

How do you run out of old fat guys?  People just not living as long these days?  Or are they living healthier and not as fat?   :food:

I was up in the VA / WV hills riding the Snake, the Back of the Dragon, and other named roads in an effort to bring in tourist dollars this past week.  I was on my Road Glide and 98 percent of the bikes out there were Harley Davidsons.  I was surprised to not see sport bikes on those type of roads.

I am at the tail end of the baby boomers being in my mid 50s, but there were guys in this group I was riding with who were in their 70s and 80s are were not riding slow.  I was amazed.  My Dad is in his early 80s and doesn't get around very well.  I would have never guessed these guys were the ages they told me. 

Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: twowheeladdict on July 27, 2019, 06:38:31 PM
I think this article has good data - motorcycle sales over roughly the last decade have been roughly the same (slightly higher) than sales in the 1990s.  There was a bubble in between, and some people thought the bubble would last forever.

https://ultimatemotorcycling.com/2018/02/12/motorcycle-sales-patterns-explained-sky-not-falling/


(https://i.ibb.co/M1FCLLL/91-A2-FD58-CCE6-44-A8-A566-0-BFE0952-ED27.jpg) (https://ibb.co/M1FCLLL)


Of course that is NEW motorcycle sales.  Used motorcycle sales are going strong.  Dealers actually like when I trade in two used ones on a new one.  Now they have two bikes to make profit on.   :cool:
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: twowheeladdict on July 27, 2019, 06:46:00 PM
Harley mirrors the rest of the motorcycle business.   We're still in hangover from the credit boom and bust of '08.  The younger folks have never gotten those years of buying power back since.  They've lost the window on interest in motorcycles and moved on.   They're focussing on necessities, building a nest egg, moving to urban areas, and not interested in frivolous purchases and have come to terms with an austere lifestyle and urban living.  Until wages and opportunity improve, we'll see this continue to happen for other expensive hobbies through successive generations.

Where do you come up with this stuff?  I am shaking my head right now.  Where do you live where young people want to move to the city where for the same money that would buy a 3 bedroom home, they can now buy a studio apartment?  I have not seen or heard of anyone telling me their kid moved to a city. 
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: redrider90 on July 27, 2019, 09:08:09 PM
When the big dogs in the company are unloading their stock it ain't good.
HOG has lost 50% of its market price since 2014 which was 6 years after the recovery from the recession. It was $70/share Nov 1,2014 and has a steady decline 5 straight years.

From Gurufocus.com July 25
CFO Recent Trades:

    SVP & CFO John A Olin sold 30,000 shares of HOG stock on 07/24/2019 at the average price of $35.96. The price of the stock has decreased by 1.08% since.
Link to Motley Fool podcast about HD https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-harley-davidson-apos-q2-172416475.html


Directors and Officers Recent Trades:

    President-HDFS Lawrence G Hund sold 13,073 shares of HOG stock on 07/24/2019 at the average price of $35.57. The price of the stock has decreased by 0% since.
    Chief Accounting Officer Mark R Kornetzke sold 3,626 shares of HOG stock on 07/24/2019 at the average price of $35.79. The price of the stock has decreased by 0.61% since.
    VP & Chief Legal Officer Paul J Jones sold 11,884 shares of HOG stock on 07/24/2019 at the average price of $35.15. The price of the stock has increased by 1.19% since.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: rocker59 on July 27, 2019, 10:25:57 PM
Where do you come up with this stuff?  I am shaking my head right now.  Where do you live where young people want to move to the city where for the same money that would buy a 3 bedroom home, they can now buy a studio apartment?  I have not seen or heard of anyone telling me their kid moved to a city.

Where do you live that the kids don't leave the small towns for the big cities?  Here in flyover country, the small towns' median ages are older than Guzzi riders' median ages are !!!  The kids go off to college and never come back.  It's been going on for decades, and only accelerating.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: twowheeladdict on July 28, 2019, 06:41:02 AM
Where do you live that the kids don't leave the small towns for the big cities?  Here in flyover country, the small towns' median ages are older than Guzzi riders' median ages are !!!  The kids go off to college and never come back.  It's been going on for decades, and only accelerating.

I guess I live where there are jobs and folks don't mind commuting an hour to work because their isn't much traffic.  30 miles south of me is Huntsville, Al which is no big city but has 10s of thousands of tech and manufacturing jobs.  Don't know of anyone moving to Atlanta for the Urban culture. 
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: blu guzz on July 28, 2019, 08:31:04 AM
2wheel and Lowryter:

I have lived in the Washington D.C. Suburbs and presently just south of Cincinnati, Ohio.  In Washington, young people could not afford to move into the city.  Here in Cincinnati, with the low cost of living, there is a boom of young, educated or good earning young people buying or renting city properties and rehabing.  Every corner seems to have a micro brewery.  Old neighborhoods are coming back in different form.  Scooters are cool.  One or zero cars are cool.  Record stores are back.  We have a house full of furniture that we have no idea who it will go to because our 3(30 somethings) kids are living small.  Big suburban houses with large yards are not as cool as they once were.  Not that they will ever die on the vine, but it is not the goal of a large part of the 35 and under crowd. 
I am not giving an opinion about who is correct, but just reporting my observations.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: LowRyter on July 28, 2019, 11:53:47 AM
Where do you come up with this stuff?  I am shaking my head right now.  Where do you live where young people want to move to the city where for the same money that would buy a 3 bedroom home, they can now buy a studio apartment?  I have not seen or heard of anyone telling me their kid moved to a city.

I don't know what anyone told you.  The cities are growing and the rural areas are shrinking.  That's where the jobs are.  For now the suburbs are holding their own.  Look it up.

None of which was central to my point: that because of the hangover for last recession, young folks have diminished buying power and are trying to build up their wealth and independence, so the motorcycle bug was never caught and the widow passed them by; however, those in that generation with an interest have gravitated to used (cheap) bikes and BRAT-ing them out.  Likewise, baby boomer values, like marriage, family and home ownership have declined as well.  Ten years is a lot of time to catch up when you're starting out regardless of where you live. 

Is that the only reason?  I am not saying that.  But is it a big factor?
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: LowRyter on July 28, 2019, 11:56:09 AM
I guess I live where there are jobs and folks don't mind commuting an hour to work because their isn't much traffic.  30 miles south of me is Huntsville, Al which is no big city but has 10s of thousands of tech and manufacturing jobs.  Don't know of anyone moving to Atlanta for the Urban culture.

Huntsville is rocket town USA.  And my point had much more to do with economics rather than geography. 

Give me a break!
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: LowRyter on July 28, 2019, 11:58:50 AM
2wheel and Lowryter:

I have lived in the Washington D.C. Suburbs and presently just south of Cincinnati, Ohio.  In Washington, young people could not afford to move into the city.  Here in Cincinnati, with the low cost of living, there is a boom of young, educated or good earning young people buying or renting city properties and rehabing.  Every corner seems to have a micro brewery.  Old neighborhoods are coming back in different form.  Scooters are cool.  One or zero cars are cool.  Record stores are back.  We have a house full of furniture that we have no idea who it will go to because our 3(30 somethings) kids are living small.  Big suburban houses with large yards are not as cool as they once were.  Not that they will ever die on the vine, but it is not the goal of a large part of the 35 and under crowd. 
I am not giving an opinion about who is correct, but just reporting my observations.

I can say the same about Okla City and Tulsa.  Scooters, Brat-bikes, singles well into their 30s.  That was where I was going with it.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Tusayan on July 28, 2019, 04:31:57 PM
Young people are as always matching what is ‘cool’ to them, now, with what they can afford.  Property appreciation as much as double inflation (for decades) has pushed the affordable entry level home down to high density housing.  When more property appreciation gives apartment owning young people equity, even at inflation level, they’ll be looking around for what they can do with it and creating a new cool for them, then.  This is a good thing for those of us already older and higher on the property ladder - homes with land within commuting distance of desirable jobs will not become any less attractive to people with equity in a downtown apartment who no longer like the noise and people living on their doorstep (literally).

If you want to hedge your bet with another shorter term market segment, make it a single story house with low maintenance property because that’s what aging boomers want right now.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: LowRyter on July 28, 2019, 06:20:45 PM
I am with you Tusayan.  BTW- one story, small yard, retired...... with ya.  Decided on one story when I slipped down the stairs holding my 6 month first born in my arms in the tri-level rent house. 
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: twowheeladdict on July 28, 2019, 06:41:19 PM
Huntsville is rocket town USA.  And my point had much more to do with economics rather than geography. 

Give me a break!

Emphasis on town.  Huntsville is not urban at all, but I get where you are coming from. 

Not looking forward to the changes I may see in the next 30 years if I live that long. 
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: canuck750 on July 29, 2019, 09:19:48 AM
I was thinking about what Lannis said, 'maybe it's just time', over a 100 years is a heck of an accomplishment. That said I don't think HD is anywhere near the end, the lower the stock value falls the more attractive it becomes for a take over. There is far too much value in the brand to see it collapse and though a major retraction is likely in order the company will continue to churn out product, my question is what action will management choose in an attempt to reverse the trend?

Hopefully there will be some far sighted vision that can sustain a potential recession and diversify the product without abandoning the heritage. I hope there can be a revitalization similar to what John Bloor achieved with Triumph, he chose not to replicate the already tired Meridian line but introduce a whole range of new machines and eventually introduce the successful retro line to appeal to a wide range of buyers.

My personal lack of interest in the HD brand has more to do with wanting to avoid the 'lifestyle' image it perpetuates than the bikes. While working in Houston I rented a couple big twins for weekend trips, I was left unimpressed with the power, handling and ergonomics. For my money there were a lot of other motorcycles that cost far less and delivered much more.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: bad Chad on July 29, 2019, 10:48:35 AM
Huntsville is certainly a city, it officially refers to itself as a city and it meets any definition one can think of.   It’s metropolitan area is pushing towards 500,000 residents.  It’s ranked 11th by US World Reports out of best places in the US to live.  Highest educated population in AL because of the investment the US government made way back when bringing the rocket boys in.

Not sure what you mean by your use of the term “urban”.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Antietam Classic Cycle on July 29, 2019, 12:42:44 PM
Hopefully there will be some far sighted vision that can sustain a potential recession and diversify the product without abandoning the heritage. I hope there can be a revitalization similar to what John Bloor achieved with Triumph, he chose not to replicate the already tired Meridian line but introduce a whole range of new machines and eventually introduce the successful retro line to appeal to a wide range of buyers.

Isn't this what the upcoming 1250 Pan America, Custom 1250 and Streetfighter 975 are supposed to do?
https://www.motorcycle.com/mini-features/design-filings-offer-better-look-at-harley-davidson-pan-america-custom-1250-and-streetfighter.html
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Lannis on July 29, 2019, 12:50:48 PM
Huntsville is certainly a city, it officially refers to itself as a city and it meets any definition one can think of. 

That's for sure.   Anyone who DOESN'T think it's a "city" should drive from the river north on 231/431 across town ....

Lannis
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: GearheadGrrrl on July 29, 2019, 02:17:22 PM
Of course, HOG(NYSE) could just follow Guzzi's business plan and spend the next century successfully going out of business!
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: twowheeladdict on July 29, 2019, 04:13:24 PM
Huntsville is certainly a city, it officially refers to itself as a city and it meets any definition one can think of.   It’s metropolitan area is pushing towards 500,000 residents.  It’s ranked 11th by US World Reports out of best places in the US to live.  Highest educated population in AL because of the investment the US government made way back when bringing the rocket boys in.

Not sure what you mean by your use of the term “urban”.

2017 population of Huntsville was 197,000.   The entire county (madison county )  361,046.  Where did you get your numbers?

I see Urban as public transit, high rise residences, people not having to own a car. City blocks.  No yards.  Night life.

For instance Nashville has a population density of 1300 per square mile.
Atlanta,   3483 per square mile.  New york, 28,256 per square mile.  Boston,  13,812 per square mile.

Huntsville,   905 per square mile. 
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: twowheeladdict on July 29, 2019, 04:22:07 PM
That's for sure.   Anyone who DOESN'T think it's a "city" should drive from the river north on 231/431 across town ....

Lannis

The mountain, Arsenal, and river constrict traffic to 231/431. 

I grew up in New England 28 miles north of Boston.

Yes Huntville is a city, but i dont consider it urban.  Any incorporated government can call itself a city to deliniate itself from the surrounding county.

Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Lannis on July 29, 2019, 04:56:49 PM


Yes Huntsville is a city, but i don't consider it urban. 


That's really about as meaningful as my saying "Yes, it has two wheels, but I don't consider it a motorcycle" for any bike under 750cc.

When you define a term differently from the rest of the world for you alone to use the way you want, it doesn't really add anything to the conversation, or help communicate.

Lannis
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: twowheeladdict on July 29, 2019, 05:49:04 PM
That's really about as meaningful as my saying "Yes, it has two wheels, but I don't consider it a motorcycle" for any bike under 750cc.

When you define a term differently from the rest of the world for you alone to use the way you want, it doesn't really add anything to the conversation, or help communicate.

Lannis

Look up the definition of city.  Anyone who invorporates can call themselves a city.  Whatever.   There are cities that have no industry, no public tranportation, only subdivisions and schools.  They are a city, but not urban. 
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: LowRyter on July 29, 2019, 05:55:13 PM
I've been to Huntsville, gone to the base and eaten what they call BBq.   We've gone a long way.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: dxhall on July 29, 2019, 06:27:49 PM
thread drift
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: TodkaVonic on July 29, 2019, 06:41:51 PM
I'm really enjoying this thread.


(https://i.ibb.co/nkcHm4y/86-B4274-E-1544-4403-85-C9-5-D25836-AADD9.jpg) (https://ibb.co/nkcHm4y)




Gotta click the image to see the whole thing...

Nate
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Lannis on July 29, 2019, 07:55:55 PM
thread drift

Not thread drift at all.   How can you have a reasonable discussion about "Harley Davidson Stock Prices" if you can't talk about the reasons WHY the stock price (value of the company, etc) is changing?

We've talked about what drives stock prices, how moving production overseas can affect the business, the history of 100+ year-old companies and whether there's a natural lifetime for a corporation like there is for people, Harley's target market, and now we're on how changing demographics, the fading out of the Boomers as an economic force and the rise of younger generations MIGHT affect Harley's attempts to target lifestyle trends.   The question was raised about whether young people are moving from cities to elsewhere, or whether they are congregating in cities more than they used to due to economic pressure, and the current discussion is "what does it take to make a 'city' and are younger people moving there, and will they therefore want traditional Harley-Davidsons or something else?"

You can have silo-ed limited discussions anywhere.   You can't get this kind of information from this many informed sources just anywhere; one of the things that makes WG unique.

Lannis
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: moltoguzzi on July 29, 2019, 09:16:38 PM
I haven’t been on this site for years and I find the same repeated bias against Harley’s and their riders. I have owned multiple Guzzi’s and HDs and liked them all. My current ride a 2018 114 Heritage all stock except for matching top box, heated grips, crash bars and highway pegs is the best bike I have owned so far. It’s comfortable for long trips, it handles great for a massive bike, it brakes great, it has more power than I’ll ever need, the suspension I’d very good, it looks great, like to just at the bike when parked. And I don’t worry about breaking down, I don’t even carry a tool kit, just a fix a flat and air cartridges. I don’t wear the custom “pirate” outfit but it’s nice to fit in wherever I go. Please knock it off with all the Harley is dead crap. They make great motorcycles for those that enjoy the journey and don’t want to get there as fast as possible. Is there a a Ducati Monster in my future? I would love to own one for short excursions. I still have a place in my heart for Guzzi’s but at 64yo I want to just ride and not having to worry about finding mechanics, parts changers are everywhere. Please go ride a new HD Softail Heritage about the same price as the 1400 touring and realize that HD is stepping up to meet the future, they even have an all electric bike and plenty of affordable beginners bikes.
Ride safely!
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: TodkaVonic on July 29, 2019, 09:52:17 PM
I haven’t been on this site for years and I find the same repeated bias against Harley’s and their riders. I have owned multiple Guzzi’s and HDs and liked them all. My current ride a 2018 114 Heritage all stock except for matching top box, heated grips, crash bars and highway pegs is the best bike I have owned so far. It’s comfortable for long trips, it handles great for a massive bike, it brakes great, it has more power than I’ll ever need, the suspension I’d very good, it looks great, like to just at the bike when parked. And I don’t worry about breaking down, I don’t even carry a tool kit, just a fix a flat and air cartridges. I don’t wear the custom “pirate” outfit but it’s nice to fit in wherever I go. Please knock it off with all the Harley is dead crap. They make great motorcycles for those that enjoy the journey and don’t want to get there as fast as possible. Is there a a Ducati Monster in my future? I would love to own one for short excursions. I still have a place in my heart for Guzzi’s but at 64yo I want to just ride and not having to worry about finding mechanics, parts changers are everywhere. Please go ride a new HD Softail Heritage about the same price as the 1400 touring and realize that HD is stepping up to meet the future, they even have an all electric bike and plenty of affordable beginners bikes.
Ride safely!

Good points. I'm a fan of HD, a previous owner, and live where probably 4/5th of motorcyclists ride a Harley. But this is a Moto Guzzi enthusiast forum for people who own, or who aspire to own, or who have owned a Moto Guzzi. I don't think that bias against another manufacturer is unexpected, and, as long as it doesn't include personal attacks or name-calling, even undesirable.  I'm not a member or contributor in any Harley forums, but I would expect discussions about Moto Guzzi's to be biased against Mandello and wouldn't take offense by that, because, hey it's a Harley forum. Having followed this conversation, it's clear to me that, by and large, people have actually gone out of their way to present their opinions in a fair and unbiased manner (with a little gentle mockery) while also promoting the brand to which this forum is dedicated. Oh, and I learned that Huntsville, Alabama is a city too, so there's that.  :grin:
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: canuck750 on July 29, 2019, 10:02:21 PM
Isn't this what the upcoming 1250 Pan America, Custom 1250 and Streetfighter 975 are supposed to do?
https://www.motorcycle.com/mini-features/design-filings-offer-better-look-at-harley-davidson-pan-america-custom-1250-and-streetfighter.html

Hmmm, the 'adventure' bike leaves me cold
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: dxhall on July 29, 2019, 10:19:10 PM
I don’t think this is about HD “hate” at all.  Many of the members of this forum (me included) own HDs.  It’s about HD’s future if it continues on its current path.  The fact that HD’s stock price has dropped against a rising market means that the market doesn’t think that future is very bright.  Is the market right?  I don’t know, but you can bet that the analysts making buy/sell recommendations did a lot of modeling and number crunching to reach their opinions.

Will HD become the two-wheeled equivalent of the BlackBerry?  Who knows.  Am I buying HD stock?  No way.

Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: oldbike54 on July 29, 2019, 10:20:43 PM
 Funny thread .

 Dusty
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Tom on July 30, 2019, 03:46:57 AM
 :grin: :grin: :sad:
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: reidy on July 30, 2019, 04:42:24 AM
I have seen a few comments hear about Harley bashing, not that I have seen much evidence of it. The funny thing is that it is totally irrelevant for the purpose of this conversation, if your 2012 Harley was the best bike ever made in the world. What we are dealing with here is a perception that Harley is heading in the wrong direction. I don’t mean a perception by the members of this fine forum who are free to express their views. I am talking about the shareholders and ex-shareholders who are clearly stating their perception by putting their money where their mouth is. The share price is heading south because investors don’t believe that the current share price reflects the value of the company.

What I find even funnier is that the quality of the 2019/20 bikes only have little relevance in this discussion. Remember that a lot of these shareholders probably have never owned or even ridden a Harley.

Harley as a company is a lot bigger than just making bikes. They are a clothing company, either directly or indirectly through licensing deals.  They are a real estate company through all of the buildings, warehouses and land they own or need to acquire for future expansion. They are a finance and insurance company. They are a training company as the charge and run schools to train as an authorized Harley mechanic. They also make money from licensing fees they charge dealers and then dictate store layout and what they can have for breakfast. The list goes on to include import/export shipping and most likely a dozen other things I have not thought about.

If they are doing any of the above badly it affects profit and/or future expenditure. This is what the shareholder cares about. The way I see it is that there is a strong perception that Harley is not doing something right to retain the perceived value in the market.

What is interesting to me are the possible reasons for this. This may include demographics of emerging markets or a belief, rightly or wrongly, that they have sold out as a good American company and are now just assembling parts from Mexico and China. We may not uncover the real reason here but it makes for an interesting conversation. That is one of the things I love about this forum even if I have not converted to steel cut oats.

Steve
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: twowheeladdict on July 30, 2019, 06:03:44 AM
Good points. I'm a fan of HD, a previous owner, and live where probably 4/5th of motorcyclists ride a Harley. But this is a Moto Guzzi enthusiast forum for people who own, or who aspire to own, or who have owned a Moto Guzzi. I don't think that bias against another manufacturer is unexpected, and, as long as it doesn't include personal attacks or name-calling, even undesirable.  I'm not a member or contributor in any Harley forums, but I would expect discussions about Moto Guzzi's to be biased against Mandello and wouldn't take offense by that, because, hey it's a Harley forum. Having followed this conversation, it's clear to me that, by and large, people have actually gone out of their way to present their opinions in a fair and unbiased manner (with a little gentle mockery) while also promoting the brand to which this forum is dedicated. Oh, and I learned that Huntsville, Alabama is a city too, so there's that.  :grin:

I am not on a general Harley forum, but am on a Road Glide specific forum.  I post photos of my Moto Guzzi and Royal Enfield on that forum and the folks appreciate it and it is eye opening for some of them.  If I post photos of my Road Glide on here I get the negative comments.  I don't even bother posting my Moto Guzzi photos on here anymore because they get the "small blocks aren't real Moto Guzzis" comments on here.  I know those aren't the exact words, but that is the sentiment of a lot of the old farts on here. 
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: oldbike54 on July 30, 2019, 08:53:36 AM
I am not on a general Harley forum, but am on a Road Glide specific forum.  I post photos of my Moto Guzzi and Royal Enfield on that forum and the folks appreciate it and it is eye opening for some of them.  If I post photos of my Road Glide on here I get the negative comments.  I don't even bother posting my Moto Guzzi photos on here anymore because they get the "small blocks aren't real Moto Guzzis" comments on here.  I know those aren't the exact words, but that is the sentiment of a lot of the old farts on here.

 Dunno , we have lots of HD owners here that post pics and reports on their bikes to normally positive comments . Are you expecting this group of folks to always gush about any brand of motorbike ? As for the small block , most of the comments are meant as humor , attend any Guzzi rally and see how many small blocks are in attendance .

 Dusty
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: s1120 on July 30, 2019, 09:09:01 AM
I’m not seeing any real hate.  Lots of ribbing back and forth for sure, but what I see the MG/ HD guys seem to have some measure of respect for each other. At least the circles I hang out in.  Really I bet more then any other brands. Just rode with my BIL the other day...  told him I thought my bike was running bad but it was the sound of his....  he keeps asking when I’m getting my ascot for riding that yuppy bike...  not hate.  Just busting stones
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Lannis on July 30, 2019, 09:34:46 AM
I’m not seeing any real hate.  Lots of ribbing back and forth for sure, ......  Just busting stones

Yup.   I mean, what do WE stereotype Guzzi riders, our own selves, as?   Right here on this list, every day.

Cheap.
Old.
Gluttons for Punishment.
Buying bikes from a crazy company "Going out of Business since 1921."
"Guzzi - Making Men into Mechanics since 1921".
Riding a 400 mile round trip to lunch if we hear that sandwiches are 25% off today.


So is that "Guzzi Bashing"?   "Guzzi Hate"?   Everyone knows it's not.  Just a bit of fun.

So how come if we characterize Harley riders as:

Wearing Outlaw Non-Conformist Official Uniforms.
Riding 200 miles a year 10 miles at a time.
Spending $15,000 on a bike and $16,000 on Screaming Arlen Ness Eagle Billet butt-jewelry.
Riding in packs 60 MPH on the straights and 15 MPH in the curves.
Making more noise with their pipes and radios than an F16 on afterburner .....


That's somehow "Harley Bashing" and "Hate" and all those other things?   

People melt down too easily these days, it seems.

Lannis
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: kballowe on July 30, 2019, 09:49:37 AM
Darned old POS Harleys....
Loose parts
$hit falling off all the time



(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/48414391061_3f400050c5_b.jpg)
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Shorty on July 30, 2019, 10:12:09 AM
Those who wear assless chaps and own get-back whips seem to be the brunt of our mockery..... and rightly so.   :grin:  :kiss:
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Lannis on July 30, 2019, 10:20:48 AM
Those who wear assless chaps and own get-back whips seem to be the brunt of our mockery..... and rightly so.   :grin:  :kiss:

Assless chaps might just be a ride protection fashion choice - I mean, chaps are by definition "assless" or otherwise they'd be pants.   I've met long-haul riders on different bikes that wear chaps, and I didn't get the impression that they were part of a uniform.   Although there are some, no doubt, who do use them for that.

But has anyone ever met a rider with a steel-tipped "Get Back Whip" dangling from his bike who was anything but a "don't f*** with me, I'm bad" wannabe tough guy?   That's not a stereotype, that's someone acting bad to maintain an image.

Never seen one of those on a Guzzi, I'll say that and no more .... :lipsrsealed:   :lipsrsealed:

Lannis
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: kballowe on July 30, 2019, 10:23:25 AM
Those who wear assless chaps and own get-back whips seem to be the brunt of our mockery..... and rightly so.   :grin:  :kiss:


We own some of those assless leather chaps but I usually wear blue jeans under them.
 :thumb:
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: oldbike54 on July 30, 2019, 10:30:32 AM
Darned old POS Harleys....
Loose parts
$hit falling off all the time



(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/48414391061_3f400050c5_b.jpg)

 That one picture explains a lot of things Kevin  :laugh:

 Dusty
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Lannis on July 30, 2019, 10:31:22 AM
Darned old POS Harleys....
Loose parts
$hit falling off all the time



(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/48414391061_3f400050c5_b.jpg)

I think it's amazing (and relevant to the Original Topic) how much your bike (nice picture) and its great-grandpa look alike 50 or 60 years later:

(https://photos.smugmug.com/General/i-MSs6rTW/0/27e9ee55/O/HD-1954-Hydra-LK-2.jpg) (https://lannisselz.smugmug.com/General/i-MSs6rTW/A)

That's part of the reason why it all works all this time, I'm betting.

Lannis
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: canuck750 on July 30, 2019, 10:51:30 AM
I have to ask.... and I am being serious, but I have never seen or heard of a 'get back whip', do folks actually swing this thing at other vehicles?? 

I would think that some drivers may take a little offense to having an object striking their car / truck and 'nudge' the offending rider with a couple thousand pounds of steel.

Ok back to the thread, there seems to be a secret black box that analysts consult that determines the 'value' of a stock, and the variable are endless. Every other day there is a news story about some blue chip company failing to meet a quarterly profit indicator and the stock value drops immediately. Apple has to be one of the most successful gadget makers in recent history but it almost dropped off the planet prior to the amazing run of I phones and is constantly seeing stock value fluctuations related to market share variables, minor delays to product launches etc, but valued over time appears to be continuing to increase share value. Apple spent years trying to get the MAC to become 'the' dominant PC. Not that Apple gave up on the PC market but they turned their focus and have dominated the phone and tablet sector.

Harley is the dominant motorcycle brand in North America and at or near the top in many other markets. The capital in the name alone has to be worth a lot, so like Apple what if they developed a whole new product, keep the heritage line but drop the V twin platform and the big road bike styling and turned to a smaller displacement bike, not entry level but lighter, quieter, with all the tech of a Honda?

Like the high end German car brands, Honda offers smaller motorcycles that bristle with performance, tech and comfort. Mercedes was a  pretty staid line and then about ten years ago they jumped on the Sports image and brought out a whole line of sportier cars that have had BMW and Audi scrambling to keep up. Mercedes did not bring out a line of sub-compact or cheaper cars for the North American market but focused on attracting younger buyers while keeping the big flagship S model for the older / well heeled traditional buyers.

Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: kballowe on July 30, 2019, 11:14:57 AM
That one picture explains a lot of things Kevin  :laugh:

 Dusty

You know that I just can't help myself.
Don't ever leave your bike here for more than a couple of days.
I cannot be held responsible......

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/48415083556_f19df13aa5_b.jpg)
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/48415262062_a50ddb8d0d_b.jpg)
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Kev m on July 30, 2019, 11:42:54 AM

I'm not a member or contributor in any Harley forums, but I would expect discussions about Moto Guzzi's to be biased against Mandello and wouldn't take offense by that, because, hey it's a Harley forum.

Not for nothing, but I don't think we SHOULD expect that... I mean, I understand why there is likely a trend that way with any brand. But being a bit of an idealist I don't think we should expect, or at least HOPE for that.

Also, there are definitely exceptions that might surprise you.

Here are some examples:

http://xlforum.net/forums/showthread.php?t=2071898

http://xlforum.net/forums/showthread.php?t=2071169

http://xlforum.net/forums/showthread.php?t=2006185

http://xlforum.net/forums/showthread.php?t=1939545

And there's more.

Plus the ADV rider forum has a number of Moto Guzzi threads frequented by Harley and other brand riders with appreciation and curiosity about Guzzi.

If find most of the threads at ADV (At least in the Road Warriors) segment are frequented by riders who are enthusiasts of multiple brands.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: kingoffleece on July 30, 2019, 11:45:59 AM
Agree 100%.
And, are not all chaps "assless" by definition?  If not, are they not then called pants?  Just thinking out loud, mind.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Lannis on July 30, 2019, 12:06:27 PM
I have to ask.... and I am being serious, but I have never seen or heard of a 'get back whip', do folks actually swing this thing at other vehicles?? 

I would think that some drivers may take a little offense to having an object striking their car / truck and 'nudge' the offending rider with a couple thousand pounds of steel.



We had a whole thread on them a little while back, it may or may not be worth searching for or reading.   My opinion is that they're symbolic, and that they get used as often as the legendary ball bearings or spark plugs through the windshield of a car, or kicking a door in.  If get-back whips or ball bearings actually got used, it would be in the paper, for the reason you suggest, and I've never seen it.

 But there are quite a few of them about these days.

Lannis
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Mayor_of_BBQ on July 30, 2019, 02:20:50 PM
We had a whole thread on them a little while back, it may or may not be worth searching for or reading.   My opinion is that they're symbolic, and that they get used as often as the legendary ball bearings or spark plugs through the windshield of a car, or kicking a door in.  If get-back whips or ball bearings actually got used, it would be in the paper, for the reason you suggest, and I've never seen it.

 But there are quite a few of them about these days.

Lannis

But Lannis, are you supposed to unclip it from the bar & brandish it like Zorro? Or is the action of the wind blowing it about while attatched to the handlebar supposed to be the deterrent????
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Shorty on July 30, 2019, 02:31:23 PM
 :laugh:   :popcorn:
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: bigbikerrick on July 30, 2019, 02:40:09 PM
I have seen the get back whips used at "biker rallys" in the field events, to knock a beer bottle off a table as the motorcyclist rides by. Sometimes the co rider on back uses it to knock down the bottle. I have seen a couple bikes get real wobbly, as the pillion yanks the whip from the front brake lever!
Rick.
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: oldbike54 on July 30, 2019, 02:57:00 PM
I have seen the get back whips used at "biker rallys" in the field events, to knock a beer bottle off a table as the motorcyclist rides by. Sometimes the co rider on back uses it to knock down the bottle. I have seen a couple bikes get real wobbly, as the pillion yanks the whip from the front brake lever!
Rick.

 What has happened to the biker in this country , we had events like tire pull races where a car tire was attached by a rope to a motorcycle and ridden by a brave passenger . Usually the races consisted of two teams of competitors racing out around a tree . Knocking bottles off a table with a get back whip is , er , well , kinda wimpy .

 Dusty
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: Ncdan on July 30, 2019, 03:41:18 PM
I don’t intend to ever get myself into a situation where any biker Harley or otherwise would feel the need to wack me with, whatever that goofy looking rope hanging off the handle bar is, however if some unfortunate soul finds a need to preform such a feat, it’s at his own risk and  peril. My throttle lock is for a specific reason and that’s to free my right hand,  not to scratch my ARSE. 👌
Title: Re: Harley Davidson stock prices fall
Post by: twowheeladdict on July 30, 2019, 05:13:56 PM
What has happened to the biker in this country , we had events like tire pull races where a car tire was attached by a rope to a motorcycle and ridden by a brave passenger . Usually the races consisted of two teams of competitors racing out around a tree . Knocking bottles off a table with a get back whip is , er , well , kinda wimpy .

 Dusty

Well, they used to have a hot dog or banana hanging on a string and the passenger had to get a mouth full while they rode by. 

Daytona Beach has or had the Cabbage Patch where true bikers partied.  Coal Slaw wrestling.  Corn Hole had a whole different meaning back then.  Sturgis has some wile area for the uninhibited as well.

When I lived in Daytona Beach as a teen and young adult, Boot Hill Saloon was only for real bikers.  I went in there once as a guest to a real biker and this girl walked up to me and grabbed a handful of nuts!  Man, was I an unworldly young man.   :shocked: