Wildguzzi.com
General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: canuguzzi on February 08, 2016, 07:36:59 PM
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Hope this doesn't turn political, not the intent.
The economy might be headed for another downturn if the market continues its slide. Its starting to look ugly. Ugly would be HDs chart (HOG). B7t that is all market stuff.
How do you see bike sales fairing this year. Heavy discounts are everywhere so while we see the now typical inventory clearances at MG, its also hitting other brands just as strong. Good for buyers.
Are we headed for another bike sales slowdown of sizable proportions?
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It's already slowed down considerably in Houston. Given the massive layoffs in the oil patch and the cascade effect of those layoffs, there's just not as much discretionary income available.
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Hope this doesn't turn political, not the intent.
The economy might be headed for another downturn if the market continues its slide. Its starting to look ugly. Ugly would be HDs chart (HOG). B7t that is all market stuff.
How do you see bike sales fairing this year. Heavy discounts are everywhere so while we see the now typical inventory clearances at MG, its also hitting other brands just as strong. Good for buyers.
Are we headed for another bike sales slowdown of sizable proportions?
I think that it is interesting that Piaggio opened a "flagship store" in Manhattan a few months ago, but I'm not sure what the point is. The floor space is less than half the space at Brooklyn Vespa, and my expectation to see a lot more in terms of accessories just didn't happen. Not sure what the point is of this store.
When I asked whether Moto Guzzi would provide a centre stand or engine guard for the V7 II, this Piaggio owned store told me a week later that it couldn't get an answer from its own corporate retail operation.
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It could be that MG is waiting to see how well the new models are received by the US market.
I read some of Piaggio s financials and noted that they specifically call out the liabilities for sales, especially the US market. If I remember correctly they were referring to service/warranty liabilities. It makes sense since the US market isn't their biggest money market but consumer protections are skewed much more in favor of the consumer so the per unit risks would be higher.
March is new model release time for many brands, it could be they are waiting for that.
HD runs TV ads and their new ads focus on price, the less than 10 grand models.
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I care less about MC sales will decline and more about the economy in general. And you thought the 2008 recession was bad?
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If you transfer current Moto Guzzi prices in Euros into other currencies, ex-VAT, the numbers are in some cases very interesting, and in some cases the difference between countries geographically close is also interesting.
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Lots of people sell their toys when money gets tight or they are concerned about jobs and income. CL ads start showing up for really nice bikes, nearly new and also sought after older models. Good if you have some handy cash to pick something up.
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I see the sales decline as more of a problem with young people not being interested. Lets face it, the "Millenials" would rather spend $1000 on a Smart phone and play video games than go for a motorcycle ride. Cars are merely an appliance, like a toaster for them. Turn the key and go. Motorcycles don't keep you warm and dry and insurance is expensive and it is a PIA answering texts while riding. Go to a car or MC show and look at the audience. Chances are the average age is 50 plus. Same problem with tall the toy type sports like boats, planes etc. Diminishing market due to lack of interest. Plan on keeping your toys because there won't be many prospective buyers in the future.
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I've got several bikes that I plan on selling in the spring, and yes, I'm a little worried that the current market conditions will limit what I can get for them.
But, on the flip side, the same slow motorcycle market is partially responsible for the great deal that I got on my V7 Special in November.
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Dang, lots of cult bikes showing up like Honda Hawks (late 80s), 3 V65s, a long list of Moto Guzzis, lots of toys hitting the market out here.
Sure not the usual.
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KTM seems to be doing well... Or at least certain models.
I'm looking to get a Duke 390, cannot locate a single one and no discounts of any type or KTM provided financing with good terms.
But in general, last time economy shit-tanked, many dealers and brands were struggling...
And my 401K seems to start with a new, lower number...
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Another downturn? More l8ike a deeper downturn than what we've had. Lots of toys for sale these days and they aren't selling very fast.
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I have it on good authority that not only Moto Guzzi , but the MoCo , and BMW are closing their doors next month ...
Dusty
Snow is pretty high out the front at the moment?
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Worst oil crash ever. Enough said. I am sniffing the air for a distress sale of a very nice Porsche somewhere in Houston.
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Timonbik,
You bring up a very good point here, but as a 24 year old, I would like to say that I am witnessing a pretty huge surge in appreciation among people my age for true vintage bikes. I live in a small part of Pittsburgh with hipsters on every block, and they and all their friends are starting off on tiny 49cc motorbikes that they found on CL for next to nothing. After a while, they trade up to an three-decades old Honda or Kawasaki (like me). And then their friends with skilled hands, perhaps some are good at welding, some are good at painting, some just like making things go fast, start tinkering with the bikes and turn them into something retro-cool. I believe the "motorcycle economy", in reference to new motorcycle sales is an entirely different world from used and true vintage sales, and I believe my town is a snapshot of the bigger picture: SOME people my age really are falling in love with the whole thing. Finding old bikes in barns, on CL, eBay, etc. We can't afford new bikes, so we're not able to support the new motorcycle economy.
You describe a millennial very accurately - desensitized and numb, glued to their smartphones, a car is just an appliance. But trust me, not all of us are like this. Some of us appreciate how a motorcycle moves the soul. The authenticity of it. We will be around to buy, sell, and trade in the vintage market for the rest of our lives.
New motorcycles won't move quickly, and most of the manufacturers will have to scramble to save dollars. But the vintage market is alive and will continue to do well, thanks in part to millennials like me :)
I see the sales decline as more of a problem with young people not being interested. Lets face it, the "Millenials" would rather spend $1000 on a Smart phone and play video games than go for a motorcycle ride. Cars are merely an appliance, like a toaster for them. Turn the key and go. Motorcycles don't keep you warm and dry and insurance is expensive and it is a PIA answering texts while riding. Go to a car or MC show and look at the audience. Chances are the average age is 50 plus. Same problem with tall the toy type sports like boats, planes etc. Diminishing market due to lack of interest. Plan on keeping your toys because there won't be many prospective buyers in the future.
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My kids are millenials. Of the four, only my two youngest daughters (20 and 26) have any real interest in two wheeled transport. The 26 year old loves the V7 and will 'inherit' it sometime soon (maybe I'll take a hard look at the Griso). The youngest remembers the old Vespa I took her to school on and remembers the feeling of flying... She often talks about riding her own. The oldest two are less interested and wrapped up in being parents and working people. My 30 year old son loves the look of the V7 and fell in lust when I showed him a youtube video of a Griso... but his wife would never go for it! lol
All of them drive old Japanese beater economy cars... cars just don't interest them.
I drive a Fiat 500, used to have an old Porsche 944 (loved that car), had a trans am, a Saab 900 and other interesting cars in the past... seemed I was always "car-poor" making a payment on something or another. If money was no object, I'd drive an Alpha Romeo 4C... on the weekends. :thumb:
I do worry that the economy will make it harder for them to find a niche, to make enough money to be comfortable and secure. Funny, they don't seem to be as worried. They have all graduated from college (except the youngest who is in her third year)... but that isn't a guarantee either, these days. But Maybe ups your chances in a changing world.
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I see the sales decline as more of a problem with young people not being interested. Lets face it, the "Millenials" would rather spend $1000 on a Smart phone and play video games than go for a motorcycle ride. Cars are merely an appliance, like a toaster for them. Turn the key and go. Motorcycles don't keep you warm and dry and insurance is expensive and it is a PIA answering texts while riding. Go to a car or MC show and look at the audience. Chances are the average age is 50 plus. Same problem with tall the toy type sports like boats, planes etc. Diminishing market due to lack of interest. Plan on keeping your toys because there won't be many prospective buyers in the future.
I agree and carry that a bit further. Millenials desire to live in the big cities, close to work. There's a big renaissance of cities here in the East. They don't even want to own a car, they are happy to take public transportation ( subways, taxis and Uber) when they need to. I don't fault them for their $1000 phones, they are both a work and a personal tool for them. They'll be more likely to just own a bike than a car or motorcycle. Just look at Toyota's decision the other day to pull the plug on the Scion brand. They cited these very trends as a main reason.
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The sky is always falling, and the economy always goes up and down. What expert economists have concluded that the economy and/or motorcycles sales are tanking?
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I see the sales decline as more of a problem with young people not being interested. Lets face it, the "Millenials" would rather spend $1000 on a Smart phone and play video games than go for a motorcycle ride. Cars are merely an appliance, like a toaster for them. Turn the key and go. Motorcycles don't keep you warm and dry and insurance is expensive and it is a PIA answering texts while riding. Go to a car or MC show and look at the audience. Chances are the average age is 50 plus. Same problem with all the toy type sports like boats, planes etc. Diminishing market due to lack of interest. Plan on keeping your toys because there won't be many prospective buyers in the future.
:1:
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I see the sales decline as more of a problem with young people not being interested. Lets face it, the "Millenials" would rather spend $1000 on a Smart phone and play video games than go for a motorcycle ride. Cars are merely an appliance, like a toaster for them.
And they buy front wheel drive cars and think they handle. :rolleyes:
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The sky is always falling, and the economy always goes up and down. What expert economists have concluded that the economy and/or motorcycles sales are tanking?
Thanks for some common sense Jeff!
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Just drive by a local high school and see how many MC's are parked in the student parking area. When I was in highschool in the 60's and 70's there would be in in excess of 20 bikes. Today, same school. None.
Parents drive their kid everywhere. Family's have 2 or more cars. When I was growing up, one car and dad had it at work. Man, the memory of freedom and independence when I bought that CB175 Honda for $300 in 1971. Today, they would rather call UBER to get somewhere. Yes, there are exceptions to every trend but overall I think todays youth couldn't give a care about bikes.
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Just drive by a local high school and see how many MC's are parked in the student parking area. When I was in highschool in the 60's and 70's there would be in in excess of 20 bikes. Today, same school. None...
This could be a sign of affluence, not falling motorcycle sales.
All four of my sons drove (used) BMWs when they were growing up...
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Not trying to turn to a political side either, but every election year things slow down in the toy market. And when things are as unsure as they are now, it will be more pronounced. However generally about June or so, the general public gets tired of hearing all the negativity and everyone wants to go for a ride. Is this go round worse than others ? Maybe. Maybe not. I remember years where as a company total in the US, Guzzi sold less than 25 bikes.
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Looks like the stars and planets may be aligned for me for a change. I'm in the market for a new or newer bike (it's been over 20 years since I purchased a 94 K75RT new). I've also been at my commissary job for 2.5 years now and have all of my retirement money safely put in government bonds in Uncle Sam's Thrift Savings Plan. Maybe it's time to pull the trigger as I'm not getting any younger.
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$28 a barrel oil is having a serious impact on the economy here not to mention the impact on all the oil producing and oil service companies. I can't see toy sales being very strong for quite some time.
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Snow is pretty high out the front at the moment?
I read it on the internet , must be true , right ?
The sky is always falling, and the economy always goes up and down. What expert economists have concluded that the economy and/or motorcycles sales are tanking?
This :1: The oil business is tanking , which is no doubt affecting the market , but cheap gas leaved more disposable income for many of us .
Dusty
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This could be a sign of affluence, not falling motorcycle sales.
All four of my sons drove (used) BMWs when they were growing up...
I had a new Silverado and a new Honda 650 when I was 16 years old.
I rode the bike to school, whenever I had the chance.
Not saying I was "Affluent", but I had a choice.
Motorcycles in The USA haven't been a "have to" thing since the days when Ford's Model T MSRP was reduced to $295.
If you had the ability to buy your kids (used) BMW autos, they could've also had motorcycles.
But they didn't.
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$28 a barrel oil is having a serious impact on the economy here not to mention the impact on all the oil producing and oil service companies. I can't see toy sales being very strong for quite some time.
Sure, a few people in a few regions are being negatively impacted by the low oil prices. However, most people benefit from low oil and gasoline prices, and end up with more money in their pocket.
Right now it's costing me about $37 to fill up my Suburban. At the peak a few years ago, I had a few $100 fill-ups.
That $63 savings per fill-up is money in my pocket that I can spend on other things, helping other parts of the economy.
There is no oil industry within 100+ miles of me, so no one here has been negatively affected by the collapse of oil prices, but we've all benefitted from the savings that cheaper gasoline prices have given us. Which will improve our economy by allowing dollars to flow to someone besides Exxon/Mobil, Conocco/Phillips, and Shell...
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Not trying to turn to a political side either, but every election year things slow down in the toy market. And when things are as unsure as they are now, it will be more pronounced. However generally about June or so, the general public gets tired of hearing all the negativity and everyone wants to go for a ride. Is this go round worse than others ? Maybe. Maybe not. I remember years where as a company total in the US, Guzzi sold less than 25 bikes.
I agree. Short-term. A natural slow-down in an election year. People are unsure every four years and curtail spending. After the election, people will rise and see the sky has not fallen, and they'll be looser with their checkbooks.
Long-term? I think that long-term, recreational motorsports will suffer as the baby-boomers age out. Boats, RVs, Quads, Motorcycles, etc. It has been the baby-boomers who have driven the RV market, and the generations behind them just don't spend as much on toys.
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$28 a barrel oil is having a serious impact on the economy here not to mention the impact on all the oil producing and oil service companies. I can't see toy sales being very strong for quite some time.
On the one hand, in Houston, the layoffs are there in the extraction part of the oil business, but it is booming in the refinery segment of the industry.
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I see the sales decline as more of a problem with young people not being interested. Lets face it, the "Millenials" would rather spend $1000 on a Smart phone and play video games than go for a motorcycle ride. Cars are merely an appliance, like a toaster for them. Turn the key and go. Motorcycles don't keep you warm and dry and insurance is expensive and it is a PIA answering texts while riding. Go to a car or MC show and look at the audience. Chances are the average age is 50 plus. Same problem with tall the toy type sports like boats, planes etc. Diminishing market due to lack of interest. Plan on keeping your toys because there won't be many prospective buyers in the future.
Agree, if you're riding a bike you can`t play with your iPhone and look at the newest youtube video that has gone viral :thumb:
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I agree. Short-term. A natural slow-down in an election year. People are unsure every four years and curtail spending. After the election, people will rise and see the sky has not fallen, and they'll be looser with their checkbooks.
Long-term? I think that long-term, recreational motorsports will suffer as the baby-boomers age out. Boats, RVs, Quads, Motorcycles, etc. It has been the baby-boomers who have driven the RV market, and the generations behind them just don't spend as much on toys.
Not on motor toys, but plenty on phone toys and the cost of gigs of downloading. It`s easy to spend $500 a month in the blink of an "open it" keystroke
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Low oil prices have been a boon to me. Not too long ago I put over 50 bux in the tank of my MINI cooper. (!) Filled up the van the other day for under $15. That's real money I can use for discretionary spending. AVgas is even falling, although there's only one manufacturer. It was killing my soul to pay $5.50/$7.50 a gallon. (!) That will help general aviation businesses.
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But the vintage market is alive and will continue to do well, thanks in part to millennials like me :)
Glad to have you here. Post more.. :smiley:
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Low oil prices have been a boon to me. Not too long ago I put over 50 bux in the tank of my MINI cooper. (!) Filled up the van the other day for under $15. That's real money I can use for discretionary spending. AVgas is even falling, although there's only one manufacturer. It was killing my soul to pay $5.50/$7.50 a gallon. (!) That will help general aviation businesses.
Not really, there is as much interest in flying as riding bikes from the current generation. One of the reasons we have a pilot shortage.
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Biz is good in Portland. Bike sales are strong.
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Not on motor toys, but plenty on phone toys and the cost of gigs of downloading. It`s easy to spend $500 a month in the blink of an "open it" keystroke
As well as motorcycling, I see a huge decline in participation in equestrian events (horse shows, trail riding), and in dog events (field trials, bird hunting).
Same story for horses and dogs that it is for motorcycles. Huge decline in participation with very few newer/younger participants. As older folks age out, they're not being replaced with younger newcomers. There just aren't any.
I'll be attending a national championship bird dog field trial this weekend and will be among the youngest in attendance. And one of the few spectators.
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Not really, there is as much interest in flying as riding bikes from the current generation. One of the reasons we have a pilot shortage.
Well you have a choice for recreational flying you can fork out an extraordinary amount of money for a cespit or similar which has precisely zero development since about 1960 something is no faster than driving, certainly no more convenient and will cost more. Or you can put your whole life in hock bust your rear in a very competitive environment for less than what a bus driver earns to eventually work your way into supervising a machine that will fly you around the world which if you start to operate it yourself the corporate masters will frown upon you. Pilotless planes are now a thing how long before the airlines decide we no longer need to be paying for two people to supervise something that can do the job way better than they ever hope to. Aviation has been in a race to the bottom for about 40 years, at some point it will reach it.
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As well as motorcycling, I see a huge decline in participation in equestrian events (horse shows, trail riding), and in dog events (field trials, bird hunting).
Same story for horses and dogs that it is for motorcycles. Huge decline in participation with very few newer/younger participants. As older folks age out, they're not being replaced with younger newcomers. There just aren't any.
I don't see much of a decline in the Hunter/Jumper world. Just the opposite. It's a different world in that world.
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Let the young folks have their tech toys and metropolitan jungles...I'm going to the desert with my internal combustion engines, my tools, and cache some dinosaur juice and live like Mad Max
'til they hunt me down... :evil:
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Just drive by a local high school and see how many MC's are parked in the student parking area. When I was in highschool in the 60's and 70's there would be in in excess of 20 bikes. Today, same school. None.
Parents drive their kid everywhere. Family's have 2 or more cars. When I was growing up, one car and dad had it at work. Man, the memory of freedom and independence when I bought that CB175 Honda for $300 in 1971. Today, they would rather call UBER to get somewhere. Yes, there are exceptions to every trend but overall I think todays youth couldn't give a care about bikes.
By the 80's there were none in the parking lot, at least in Eastern LI, NY.
Yet I grew up with a desire and have pumped some not insignificant cash into the industry.
<shrugs>
I think mc ownership may have largely shifted to older buyers, and I don't mean 40's or 50's, but maybe just not teens. Perhaps the age at which people enter the market has shifted a decade or so, to a point where non-practical motorcycle (toy) ownership is more financially feasible.
Kids today are staring at much larger student loan debt and arguably more expensive cars and insurance. And bikes just aren't necessarily the practical (cheaper) solution anymore.
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I don't see much of a decline in the Hunter/Jumper world. Just the opposite. It's a different world in that world.
Yes. I have family who have a teenaged eventer daughter. Definitely a different world.
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$28 a barrel oil is having a serious impact on the economy here not to mention the impact on all the oil producing and oil service companies. I can't see toy sales being very strong for quite some time.
It should be mean lots of consumers with more money to spend rather than buying gas and utilities. So bad for the oil patch but better for the rest of the country, especially for travel and vacations.
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Low gas means more cigarettes, beer and lottery tickets. I'm not convinced real fiscally responsible consumers spend any differently.
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Low gas means more cigarettes, beer and lottery tickets. I'm not convinced real fiscally responsible consumers spend any differently.
I'm spending my fuel savings this weekend on a hotel suite, rather than camping in 30-degree weather.
Previously, the trip would cost $150 in fuel. This weekend it will cost $50-$60. I'm going to use the $100 savings to upgrade our accomodations. So Wyndham will get the money rather than Murphy or Flying J.
:thumb:
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Well you have a choice for recreational flying you can fork out an extraordinary amount of money for a cespit or similar which has precisely zero development since about 1960 something is no faster than driving, certainly no more convenient and will cost more. Or you can put your whole life in hock bust your rear in a very competitive environment for less than what a bus driver earns to eventually work your way into supervising a machine that will fly you around the world which if you start to operate it yourself the corporate masters will frown upon you. Pilotless planes are now a thing how long before the airlines decide we no longer need to be paying for two people to supervise something that can do the job way better than they ever hope to. Aviation has been in a race to the bottom for about 40 years, at some point it will reach it.
Absolutely, pilotless airplanes will be coming. Airline executives despise us pilots since we still hold some power. Pilotless airplanes will not have a Union to ruin lining their pockets full of cash also.
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I'm spending my fuel savings this weekend on a hotel suite, rather than camping in 30-degree weather.
Being that it is Valentines weekend......Even high gas prices would not keep you away from a nice room! :wink:
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When I started on bikes in 1964 cars were prohibitively expensive, one had to have overseas funds in order to purchase a new car. Second hand cars often sold for more than new because Joe blogs simply did not have overseas funds; to get a car it was certainly a seller's market.
A young dude looking to get mobile was effectively pushed in to getting on two wheels. I suspect that many on this forum are like me and fell in love with motorbikes as a result. I look forward to any sort of bike ride; driving in a car, well, no. A means to an end.
Times changed out here an in an effort (which worked) to get old dungers off the road the government allowed the import of 2nd hand cars from Japan. Suddenly a struggling family could still have a reasonable car, but also, young people could get a car cheaper than a bike. My 2003 Guzzi cost more than The Princesses' 2008 1500cc Suzuki Swift! The millenials therefore did not need to be exposed to the elements when dating the latest squeeze, they went straight to four wheels and consequently did not get the exposure to the joys of two wheels. Lets face it, why freeze in winter, get wet when it rains and slide along the ground in the first patch of oil you hit when you can be snug and warm in your air conditioned tin box? Most therefore, just do not "get" motorcycling.
We are all getting older, and that I think is why the pool of potential buyers is getting smaller.
I really was encouraged by Pittsburgh's comments. There are still some younger ones out there that still enjoy the wind in their face! :thumb:
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In Texas you can't get a m/c license until you are 17 and pass the tests. By then you have a car or pick up truck and bikes are not thought off. I bought my first bike, a 1961 Harley 74 when I was 16. It was in my name and I had insurance. Now insurance for a teenager is almost prohibitive. I can't remember if I've ever seen a cycle at the Lindale high school parking lot and I go by it every day.
If the economy is bad why is every professional football game sold out? Yet, I hear 30 to 50 bucks is too much for a Guzzi rally.
Tex
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Quote from Texas Turnip:
I can't remember if I've ever seen a cycle at the Lindale high school parking lot and I go by it every day.
I graduated from a high school of around 800 students in 73. I remember about three motorcycles at the school on any regular basis. The largest HS I worked last year had a bit over 600 students. Regularly one Sportster, a handful of sport bikes and and a few scooters. So actually quite a bit more than when I was in HS. I would regularly get compliments on my Norge from kids at school.
GliderJohn
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The motorcycle industry actually does very little to foster younger people riding motorcycles. There are ads in some magazines they don't read, stores where there are more used care sale people than motorcyclists and a don't do this or that society.
What there isn't and hasn't been for decades is something like the movie "On any Sunday". I remember going to that movie by which time I already had a Scorpion mini-bike. The thing had disk brakes, a real suspension and torque converter transmission, not one of those centrifugal clutch jobs. I was able to ride the fire roads in Jersey.
One day I came upon a couple of guys riding Yamaha dirt bikes, 125s. I proudly proclaimed mine was a 172cc 4 stroke. They must have laughed inward as there was this 8 year old on a lawn mower engined mini-bike who thought he had something. They didn't mind though, I was riding and we had something in common.
There was no I have this and if you don't then what you have doesn't qualify to be on the same road as me. It was all good. Far cry from what you see now.
But back to the industry. Where are the sponsored movies, something other than a Tom Cruise performing tricks that make you :rolleyes:?
That one movie did more to attract and get people to good about motorcycles and motorcycling than anything else. How many kids begged their parents for a first minibike or small motorcycle after they saw that and how many parents looked at them differently as well?
In its place we have YouTube where a typical video is some faceless person riding a motorcycle evades cops as they race down the streets at 100+mph.
In the last decade, some cities have nearly completely redesigned their roads to accommodate bicycles to the point they have their own lanes and cars have to stay 3 feet away from them yet a motorcyclist has to pay over $5 to cross a bridge?
We need another "On any Sunday" event which is what that was, an event more than a movie. Something where the idea of riding a motorcycle means.more than some brand coveting fetish is last and in general, motorcycling is first and more important.
HD owners are laughed at because they often buy into the whole single and dangle accessorized outfit thing and many of them don't ride farther than a Starbucks but the truth is that HD has done more than anyone to keep motorcycling alive in the years since 1995 than everyone else combined.
The proof is in their sales. You can't sell your wares if you don't embrace new customers and that means more than just taking their money at bike purchase time . It means more than telling them how good your bikes are but also being there to make sure they are.
The industry has the means to do far more than sit back and mimic an overpriced jewelry store mentality, they could really change perceptions, if they wanted to and with that spark just one s generation to see motorcycles as something to experience.
It happened before, it could happen again.
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My feeling the problem is the major decline in areas that kids can ride a dirt bike on their own.Lets face it, probably 90% of us started out in the dirt honing are skills and love of two wheels.
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I will also say...
I work at a motorcycle accessory and gear shop, and I have taken the time to notice age trends. It is split exactly down the middle; every age group, every class of person, every walk of life comes in and they all ride. BUT... it "seems" as though the younger crowd (most of my peers) tend to gravitate towards dirt and quad... meaning, they have their little 125 at the campground that they like to toss around, they probably don't have any interest in going to a dealer to purchase a new bike (street or dirt), and they drive their jacked-up pickup to school. They still love bikes, but it's a weekend thing rather than a way of life (like it is for me). The middle-aged and older crowd seem to more appreciate their street bikes. Now, this is a generalization, and both crowds appreciate both worlds. But this is the pattern that I've picked up on, and it might have something to do with our perception of how the "motorcycling industry" is doing. Again, it's still here, and there are still 24 year olds like me who are obsessively passionate about two-wheeled machines and what they bring to our lives. But there are a lot of niches and nooks & crannies in the market that some of the younger crowd are filtering into.
Also, when I was at Cleveland Moto signing for my V7 Classic, out of all the people who walked in and out of the dealer that whole day, want to know how many of them were remotely close to my age? One. Younger guy, probably barely 20, his father buying him a Royal Enfield. It was brilliant, but really spoke of the kind of crowd that Guzzi attracts. I just think a lot of the kids were at the Kawasaki dealer, wheeling and dealing on dirt throwers and tear-offs ;) I guess they'd rather spend money on weekend dirt bikes than Italian hand-made, small-block beauties :violent1:
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Quote from Texas Turnip:
I graduated from a high school of around 800 students in 73. I remember about three motorcycles at the school on any regular basis. The largest HS I worked last year had a bit over 600 students. Regularly one Sportster, a handful of sport bikes and and a few scooters. So actually quite a bit more than when I was in HS. I would regularly get compliments on my Norge from kids at school.
GliderJohn
I graduated from the same size HS in 72. There was one motorcycle there then, and there is none there now. HS seniors today are stressing over how to pay for college, they're not paying for toys out of their college funds.
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My feeling the problem is the major decline in areas that kids can ride a dirt bike on their own.Lets face it, probably 90% of us started out in the dirt honing are skills and love of two wheels.
Agree. And the roads here in the NY/NJ/CT metro area are overcrowded with people driving 85 in a 60 or 65 zone because they moved to the suburbs and have a 3 hour round trip commute to and from the city.
When my son was young, we rode dirt bikes together. He was very skilled and fearless. He had a great time. When he was old enough for a drivers license, we had a talk about motorcycles, in case he wanted one. (My "rules" were no crotch rockets, less than 100HP for first bike, and it had to have ABS) Guess what? He told me that our area's roads were just too crazy for him to enjoy street riding and he said "no thanks." Maybe they're making kids smarter now than when we were made....
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Low gas means more cigarettes, beer and lottery tickets. I'm not convinced real fiscally responsible consumers spend any differently.
ganja... :boozing:
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In 1964, when I left high school, our cars only had a heater. We grew up riding around with mom or pop driving and the windows down, lots of wind in the back seat, cold sometimes but just right in front where the wind did not hit you.
So, it was not that big a stretch to mount a MC and ride with no windscreen. I rode a hilander scooter to high school and trade school across the river. My first car was a used 1956 chevy V8 265. My uncle helped with the purchase, he got a great deal for $395. There were no smart phones or GPS devices.
I was very much influenced by other MC riders going to school, but my dad would not let me have one while under his roof. Too dangerous and we didn't have the money anyway.
I watched a guy ride to school, most mornings he would pass the bus I was on. He had a nice clean blue and white Triumph Cub 200cc, but he could wheelie it at will it seemed. An older brother to a classmate up the road, had a cushman eagle, and his neighbor had a HD with pull back bars (sportster probably), and wore a black leather jacket. I watched these guys come an go while I was growing up, walking to school, or riding my bicycle.
I worked on my Dad and Mom to get a MC, but the dude with the cushman eagle had a wreck one night, hit a big pot hole in the dark and put him in the hospital for a few days. This ended my hopes and his younger brothers hopes of ever getting a MC while at home.
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Sure, a few people in a few regions are being negatively impacted by the low oil prices. However, most people benefit from low oil and gasoline prices, and end up with more money in their pocket.
Right now it's costing me about $37 to fill up my Suburban. At the peak a few years ago, I had a few $100 fill-ups.
That $63 savings per fill-up is money in my pocket that I can spend on other things, helping other parts of the economy.
There is no oil industry within 100+ miles of me, so no one here has been negatively affected by the collapse of oil prices, but we've all benefitted from the savings that cheaper gasoline prices have given us. Which will improve our economy by allowing dollars to flow to someone besides Exxon/Mobil, Conocco/Phillips, and Shell...
I agree with Rocker59. Certainly I'm not schooled in economics, but that said, I like the analogy of a flowing river vs a stagnant pond. If money/goods/services isn't 'flowing' through the greater economy it gets stagnant... too much in one place and not flowing freely... and the greater economy suffers. The oil industry has had a good 100+ year run and has changed the world, arguably made it a better place. But maybe its time to 'let it flow'.
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Another factor, in the old days, you could go to the dealer and get a brochure on a bike, and take it home pin it up on your wall, and start saving your money to maybe get one some day.
Now, we just go to the internet and read forums about bikes of interest, then to YT to get the latest reviews from people that actually own one. The local dealer is not used unless you wish to see a bike in the flesh.
New bikes coming freezes people to wait for the newest and latest, and if you wait long enough, your likes and dislikes may change to another newer and greater.
Example, we have absolutely no electric bikes in my area that I know of or have seen, but due to the info on the internet, I know a electric bike won Pikes Peak this year. I can also view videos on YT of them, this causes me to pause when I think of buying another IC, say a 690 Duke.
I think this causes more bikes to be left on the showroom floor over time. I have never seen so many bikes (all makes and models) being stranded at the dealers for so long.
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In the early 1980s there was a down turn in motorcycle sales. One could buy cheaply new bikes two model years old. Many thought that this would be the end of the industry, but here we are in the next century and there are still companies making them. We;ll probably weather this slump too.
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In the early 1980s there was a down turn in motorcycle sales. One could buy cheaply new bikes two model years old. Many thought that this would be the end of the industry, but here we are in the next century and there are still companies making them. We;ll probably weather this slump too.
In March 1983, I got a new 1983 CB650SC Nighthawk.
There were new, unsold 1979 Hondas on the showroom floor at the dealer. Lots of bikes like the CB900F and CBX just sitting.
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I remember that well. The ancient past seems so bloody recent. Such are the memories of a hag!
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It's complicated; but a few things pop out to me: The local motorcycle safety school where I went to get my endorsement again after a 26 year hiatus says enrollments tank went gas prices tank. This reflects the main reason I got into bikes so many years ago; cheap transport. The urge to ride just to ride a motorcycle came much later. I have not talked to them lately (need to) but this cheap gas can not be helping them.
Real middle class earnings have declined the last 30 years when inflation has been taken into account. Rising cost of everything leaves a lot less money for discretionary spending on fishing boats, motorcycles, horses, etc. This may actually help the motorcycle industry as people look for cheap transport. But with so many cars on the used market and motorcycles not being all that cheap (lets face it, cars are made so much better than in the 50's and 60's so they can be viable on the used market for much longer than before - and they have heat, A/C and rain protection - as well as a trunk in most cases - a motorcycle is a tough sell) this is a crap shoot. I keep reading that young folks are not that interested in cars, preferring buses, mass transit trains or bicycles so big bikes are probably out and Vespa's are back in.
Then you add in simple life style changes. Hunting is down in most states as fewer and fewer kids follow dad (rarely mom) out into the woods to hunt. Shooting sports in general, when I ran an air gun match, attracted few new shooters and kids in general would leave as soon as they discovered the opposite sex, typically returning when their kids came of age.
Honda is trying to correct the problem of attracting new young riders with its' 300cc and 500cc motorcycles but it's truly an up hill battle with computer games, drones etc. pulling their interests and dollars else where.
Being selfish, this concerns me because if my motorcycle company is not healthy it may go away - and there goes my parts source.
I think if someone came out with the VW bug version of a motorcycle, in the 200-300cc class for $2000-$3000 new; some interest could be created for a new generation of gear heads. In todays world it would first have to be seen in a 007 movie with a Kardashian riding it for sales to really take off. sigh.
But I think we face a lot of reasons for a lack luster motorcycle industry and a cheap bike is only one small part of the whole solution. Who knows, maybe motorcycles will go the way of the horse with a very small segment of the population even caring about it.
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rboe may have something with the VW Beetle of bikes analogy.
You can buy a new car with at least a 3/36 mile warranty, and likely something with a 5/50 at least on the powertrain for as cheap as $12k.
It may not be sexy, but it certainly makes a $8-10k V7 hard to swallow for an 18-28 y/o with tight pockets.
I'll say I did buy my first bike as an alternate to 4-wheel commuting in my early 20's ... and even abandoned my 4wheel transportation to buy my first new bike before I was 25.
Money was tight and I had caught the bug for riding bad.
But I suspect even then I was in the overwhelming minority.
When people talk about a decline in sales I think largely it was generational driven with most of the new bike sales already going to people in their 40's and 50's in this country.
So I don't know that we're feeling the impact of the Millennials on the industry yet per se. We'll know their real impact in about another decade.
If anything I'd say we're feeling the general economic environment and the overall change in the US to motorcycles as nothing more than recreation in most people's eyes.
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I just don't see motorcycles as more than recreational vehicles anymore. I know I'm spoiled, having to go back to a bike as my main transport, especially in the summer in Phoenix, no thank you! Pretty much spoiled rotten. :p I do know of a young guy at work that rides all year round. I think he finally bought a car, but I know he did a motorcycle for several years as his only transport. Rides a Honda Stateline (factory chopper). I'd cringe when the monsoons came through and he had to ride in those frog throttlers. Gah!
I think I started to get the bug when I stopped by the Honda shop and got a deal on a end of year CJ360T (current bike was a TS125 - and I had learned to hate it). Did some rides on that bike! When I moved on to a KZ550 that tried to kill me on several occasions, to this day I'd like to get a CJ360T. The 550, not so much (the CB1100 kinda replaced it).
In any event, the next few years will be interesting. See where the market goes, see what folks embrace next (save the Harley and Goldwing crowd, but like us, I think those guys will just die off) and if that involves us or not. I suspect not. :)
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! When I moved on to a KZ550 that tried to kill me on several occasions,
What did the KZ do to try and kill you? My KZ is my loyal sidekick! :P
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I am planning for my bike to be recreational and also practical. I have no other motor vehicle. It must be cheap to buy and run and reliable and long lived.
My months long research has me thinking most seriously of the S-Y-M Wolf Classic 150. $3K with 2 year warranty. 150cc / 15 HP with cruising speed 55 - 60 MPH and it apparently prefers regular fuel and returns usually between 70 and 80 MPG. 266 lb wet claimed weight. It is essentially an improved Honda CB 125 with larger engine with ceramic coated cylinder, electric start, better than original 125 / 100 bike electrics and an H4 headlamp, 2 piston front disc, and a few other useful items. Accessories are cheap and available.
This is the sort of bike used throughout less developed nations and can be seen carrying horrible loads. They are oft abused. I think it should fill my needs.
The VW sort of bike? I am hoping so.