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General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: Arizona Wayne on April 24, 2017, 01:03:57 PM

Title: Harleys future?
Post by: Arizona Wayne on April 24, 2017, 01:03:57 PM
From a stock site I read: "HD shipments fell by 14.7% 1st quarter compared to last year.  US MC sales fell 5.7%.  International sales fell 1.8% with a 9% drop in Asian countries.  Harleys level dealer inventory is so high that they will have to hold back new model production.

Indians revenue has increased 47% while Harleys has fallen 2%.

Anecdotally, my wife and I see more Harleys broken down on the side of the road when we're out riding than any other MC brand I encounter." 

Me too for many years.  :huh:
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Penderic on April 24, 2017, 01:35:43 PM
(http://i1299.photobucket.com/albums/ag77/Penderic/Penderic005/future_italian_stallion_infant_tshirt_zps39a4hdym.jpg)

 :wink:
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Zoom Zoom on April 24, 2017, 01:42:39 PM

Anecdotally, my wife and I see more Harleys broken down on the side of the road when we're out riding than any other MC brand I encounter." 


Just to be the devils advocate, there are many many more of them on the road. Odds are you would see more of them broken down simply due to the number of them on the road to begin with. Just sayin'. :evil:

John Henry
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Chuck in Indiana on April 24, 2017, 01:55:11 PM
^^^^^ Absolutely. Around here, it's Shirley at least 10-1.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: twowings on April 24, 2017, 02:01:36 PM
Dim.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Arizona Wayne on April 24, 2017, 02:02:48 PM
1 time in norCal I pulled over for a HD rider on the side of the road, me on my `71 Ambo.  What had happened is 1 of the screws holding 1 of his air filters on his front head had vibrated off and the filter was blocking all air to that cylinder.  So I get the factory Philips head screw driver from my Guzzi tool kit and he tries to loosen the larger head screw keeping his chrome filter from sealing off air to his carb............... breaking the tip off my too small screw driver tip and handing it back to me, not even thanking me for trying to be of some help.  I get back on my Ambo. and leave him and his SO stranded again.  :huh:  He didn't have any tools hisself.  At that point I didn't feel sorry for him any more.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: sib on April 24, 2017, 02:28:09 PM
Just to be the devils advocate, there are many many more of them on the road. Odds are you would see more of them broken down simply due to the number of them on the road to begin with. Just sayin'. :evil:

John Henry
True enough, there are probably no more HD's, proportionally, broken down than any other brand.  On the other hand, there are enough used HD's sitting in driveways with For Sale signs on them that the factory can shut down for several years without impacting the overall HD marketplace.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: kingoffleece on April 24, 2017, 02:52:35 PM
Indian sales would have to be numbers up as it's compared to a much smaller base number.
That said, The Motor Co better figure out how to attract new riders.  And, if you read further it states that they expect fully 50% of sales to come from overseas, which has been the only growth market for them.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Zoom Zoom on April 24, 2017, 03:05:17 PM
^^^^^ Absolutely. Around here, it's Shirley at least 10-1.

Don't call me Shirley :evil:

ZZ
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: swooshdave on April 24, 2017, 03:48:44 PM
Indian sales would have to be numbers up as it's compared to a much smaller base number.
That said, The Motor Co better figure out how to attract new riders.  And, if you read further it states that they expect fully 50% of sales to come from overseas, which has been the only growth market for them.

Sales increase by percentage only works when you are comparing the same company.

The Harley market in the US seems to be pretty saturated.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Rough Edge racing on April 24, 2017, 03:49:33 PM
1 time in norCal I pulled over for a HD rider on the side of the road, me on my `71 Ambo.  What had happened is 1 of the screws holding 1 of his air filters on his front head had vibrated off and the filter was blocking all air to that cylinder.  So I get the factory Philips head screw driver from my Guzzi tool kit and he tries to loosen the larger head screw keeping his chrome filter from sealing off air to his carb............... breaking the tip off my too small screw driver tip and handing it back to me, not even thanking me for trying to be of some help.  I get back on my Ambo. and leave him and his SO stranded again.  :huh:  He didn't have any tools hisself.  At that point I didn't feel sorry for him any more.

 I'm not that familiar with later model Harleys....I assume they are still like the older carb bikes, one throttle body to feed both cylinders routed through a Y shaped intake manifold? If so...How would air to the front cylinder be blocked? Or is it two throttle bodies?
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Northern Bill on April 24, 2017, 04:08:11 PM
My buddy had a friend arrive on a new Harley.  His friend was in his early 60s and this was his first bike!!  The driveway was slightly sloped downwards so he had to turn his bike around on a slope to get back out.  During the attempt, he fell off.  My buddy and his friend barely were able to get the bike upright.  My guess is that brand new Harley will be for sale soon!
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: swooshdave on April 24, 2017, 04:09:37 PM
My buddy had a friend arrive on a new Harley.  His friend was in his early 60s and this was his first bike!!  The driveway was slightly sloped downwards so he had to turn his bike around on a slope to get back out.  During the attempt, he fell off.  My buddy and his friend barely were able to get the bike upright.  My guess is that brand new Harley will be for sale soon!

Not the bike's fault.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Arizona Wayne on April 24, 2017, 05:26:22 PM
I'm not that familiar with later model Harleys....I assume they are still like the older carb bikes, one throttle body to feed both cylinders routed through a Y shaped intake manifold? If so...How would air to the front cylinder be blocked? Or is it two throttle bodies?


I'm thinking it was 2 separate intakes for each cylinder but it was so long ago you're probably right it being 1 carb for both jugs.  :undecided:  My memory accuracy is suspect nowadays.  :evil:
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Murray on April 24, 2017, 06:29:21 PM
People have for years theorised that HD's customer base is ageing rapidly tot he point they will not longer be the type of people that buy Motorcycles. Is this finally occurring? Not good news as the marketing geniuses at Piaggio seem to be determined to follow the same path with Guzzi.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Kiwi_Roy on April 24, 2017, 07:07:33 PM
I went to a swap meet last Sunday, I think Harleys never disappear the parts just keep getting recycled in the smallest possible pieces.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: LowRyter on April 24, 2017, 07:13:49 PM
ride those heavy bikes.

(http://jarviscity.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/don-cheadle-oceans-13.jpg)
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Lannis on April 24, 2017, 07:18:24 PM
People have for years theorised that HD's customer base is ageing rapidly tot he point they will not longer be the type of people that buy Motorcycles. Is this finally occurring? Not good news as the marketing geniuses at Piaggio seem to be determined to follow the same path with Guzzi.

I've quit trying to guess.   

I had all sorts of evidence back in 2003 (their "centennial year") that the Bubble had Burst.   I was in our local Harley shop buying some muffler clamps (they make nice muffler clamps, these ones fit my Centauro), and I looked into the back warehouse, and there must have been a hundred like-new late-model trade-ins back there, as people traded for the soon-to-be-valuable-like-Shelby-Cobras Centennial Editions.

I figured that if other shops were like this, and there were so many trade-ins, a year or two old, with 1500 miles on them, there was NO WAY they'd continue selling new bikes.   Market was BOUND to be saturated, wasn't it?

Apparently not ....

Lannis
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Bill Hagan on April 24, 2017, 07:29:26 PM
I've quit trying to guess.   

I had all sorts of evidence back in 2003 (their "centennial year") that the Bubble had Burst.   I was in our local Harley shop buying some muffler clamps (they make nice muffler clamps, these ones fit my Centauro), and I looked into the back warehouse, and there must have been a hundred like-new late-model trade-ins back there, as people traded for the soon-to-be-valuable-like-Shelby-Cobras Centennial Editions.

I figured that if other shops were like this, and there were so many trade-ins, a year or two old, with 1500 miles on them, there was NO WAY they'd continue selling new bikes.   Market was BOUND to be saturated, wasn't it?

Apparently not ....

Lannis

Yup. 

Reminds me of Twain's (somewhat apocryphal) remarks about his decade-or-so premature obit: "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."

I like Harleys, but am unlikely ever to buy one or stock in The Motor Company.  That said, if I had a Road King or certificate, I'd not sell either anytime soon .

Bill

[Edited to remove those obnoxious �'s.  :violent1: :violent1: :violent1:]
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: John in PA on April 24, 2017, 08:14:17 PM
I've always liked the concept of the V-Rod engine.  I wonder what sales would be like if they dropped that engine in a standard bike rather than a cruiser. Might give The Motor Company new life and a new breed of riders.   

Of course, I have to admit, KTM has been capturing my attention, (and my lust) lately...   :wink: :evil:
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Arizona Wayne on April 24, 2017, 08:40:59 PM
I've always liked the concept of the V-Rod engine.  I wonder what sales would be like if they dropped that engine in a standard bike rather than a cruiser. Might give The Motor Company new life and a new breed of riders.   

Of course, I have to admit, KTM has been capturing my attention, (and my lust) lately...   :wink: :evil:


The V-rod motor was made for Harley by Porsche.  :wink:
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Lannis on April 24, 2017, 08:50:45 PM

The V-rod motor was made for Harley by Porsche.  :wink:

Well, to be precise, it was manufactured by Harley Davidson in Kansas City.   Harley and Porsche jointly did the design and engineering work ....
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: ITSec on April 24, 2017, 09:25:47 PM
I did a bit of market analysis on this info when it came out a week or so back. Unfortunately, it shows shipments (to dealers) and not sales in units. Sales numbers are shown only in gross total by region.

The statement by HD mothercorp mentions that the backlog at dealers has been going down. That's probably a combination both of the time of year and of the reduced shipments from the factory. However, what the statement doesn't mention (and it's conspicuous by its absence) is sales of the Milwaukee 8 machines. The lack of mention leaves questions hanging. How well is the market accepting the new engines? Are there plans to complete the transition to that design for all bikes other than the Sporties (and for that matter, what about those bikes)? Is the increased cost of the new engine causing market resistance?

There's also no detail to show how they've come out in the accessories/parts area after dealing with the consent decree and penalty regarding the ECM performance benders.

HD Financial continues to hover on the edge. After their near-collapse during the recession, they appear to be returning to the lending practivecs that got them in trouble. It's an easy way to pump sales making loans that others won't, but there's a reason others won't.

The new Asian HDs' sales in that region are just taking off, so year-end numbers will tell a lot more.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: willowstreetguzziguy on April 25, 2017, 12:09:34 AM
 I live not far from the Harley Davidson York plant. The other night on the news they announced a cut back and employment to below 800. I believe at one point they were at 2000 employees. If you look on craigslist,  it seems like 40% of the bikes on there are Harleys. Talk about oversaturated market!.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Arizona Wayne on April 25, 2017, 01:18:59 AM
My neighbor had a Harley and it took him a long time to sell it.  In fact he traded it for a catamaran boat like he already had.  Months later he finally sold that. He wasn't a hard core rider like us.  His wife's Suzuki cruiser sold months faster than his Harley probably because it cost a lot less.  This is all in the last year.  Bikes/boats are big here.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Rough Edge racing on April 25, 2017, 05:34:41 AM
  Geez Wayne, you don't hate Harelys much do you ?   :evil: The Rochester NY Craig's List is flooded with cruiser bikes of all brands not just Harleys...I see a trend here..Older causal riders might gravitate towards cruisers and lose interest...I do see younger riders on modified late model HD's
  The Buell and V rod shows that HD doesn't know ,or care to know, how to  market anything but large touring/cruising machines...
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Ncdan on April 25, 2017, 05:48:36 AM
Personally I don't think Harley Davidson is going anywhere anytime soon. They are great bikes, very dependable, beautiful and reasonably priced when compared to like bikes. One Good thing about Harley that folks like us that if you do have an issue on the road, most every little town in America has a Harley dealership. I have owned several however now I only have a lowly little Calvin which I'm very content with:)
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: blackcat on April 25, 2017, 06:22:46 AM
I have owned two Harley's, put about 40,000 miles on the bikes and never had a thing go wrong with either one of them, just oil and gas.  Yes, no warped rotors, no exploding fuel filters, no bad fuel pumps, no cracked wheel rims, no hydraulic cam issues,no bad oil pumps, no electronic dashboard issues, no cheap plastic chrome crap, etc.,etc.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: twodogs on April 25, 2017, 06:24:55 AM
So many HD haters out there, it is not the bikes problem, rode them since 81 and never left me on the side of the road unlike the Guzzi brand I ride now and talk about trying to sell one. I don't hate a brand of bike because some asshat is riding it because I have talked to all kind of riders since I took up the sport in 63 and have owned just about every brand out there, I myself have been a friend to a lot of folks I have met along the way and I have been a real dick to others, try not to be but it happens and it was not because of the bike they rode. Time is short. I personally would of like to see hd put the v-rod motor in the bagger just like I would like to see MG put the 1200 motor in a v7, oh well just my thoughts on it, I could be wrong and I usually am. rant over.:bike-037:



 
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Northern Bill on April 25, 2017, 07:13:12 AM
I bought a Buell new in 2004. Knowing Harley's reputation, or at least thinking I knew it, I purchased the 7 year warranty with it.  When the warranty expired I sold the bike but I never made one claim in 7 years.  Hmm!!
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: JJ on April 25, 2017, 07:50:38 AM
I have owned two Harley's, put about 40,000 miles on the bikes and never had a thing go wrong with either one of them, just oil and gas.  Yes, no warped rotors, no exploding fuel filters, no bad fuel pumps, no cracked wheel rims, no hydraulic cam issues,no bad oil pumps, no electronic dashboard issues, no cheap plastic chrome crap, etc.,etc.

Same experience, and have owned four (4) Big Twins in my time - two Electra Glide Sports, two Road Kings, with a combined mileage total of over 125,000 miles.  No issues whatsoever... :thumb:

Would have bought another one, but the wife wanted to try something different, so we chose the 2014 Victory Vision - and no regrets on that selection either. :cool: (even though they are now..."extinct!)  :rolleyes: :shocked:

Will own another one someday.  Dealers, parts, service available around the world, and there is something to be said for that also... :wink:
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Kev m on April 25, 2017, 07:55:33 AM
I did a bit of market analysis on this info when it came out a week or so back. Unfortunately, it shows shipments (to dealers) and not sales in units. Sales numbers are shown only in gross total by region.

The statement by HD mothercorp mentions that the backlog at dealers has been going down. That's probably a combination both of the time of year and of the reduced shipments from the factory. However, what the statement doesn't mention (and it's conspicuous by its absence) is sales of the Milwaukee 8 machines. The lack of mention leaves questions hanging. How well is the market accepting the new engines? Are there plans to complete the transition to that design for all bikes other than the Sporties (and for that matter, what about those bikes)? Is the increased cost of the new engine causing market resistance?

No for nothing, but they've been reporting "bike shipments" and not end sales units since they've been a public company.

Also the sales report explain the M8 engine bikes are purposely being held back to help their dealers move the remaining TC models. FWIW, I witnessed the mayhem they caused in 2007 when they wholesale replaced the TC88 with the TC96 across all the big twin lines. Dealers all over suddenly woke up to the fact that they had dozens or more bikes in stock with motors that people didn't want because of the "latest greatest" so they are being smart about it this time.


HD Financial continues to hover on the edge. After their near-collapse during the recession, they appear to be returning to the lending practivecs that got them in trouble. It's an easy way to pump sales making loans that others won't, but there's a reason others won't.

I'd be curious to learn more about this if you're willing to educate me.

I live not far from the Harley Davidson York plant. The other night on the news they announced a cut back and employment to below 800. I believe at one point they were at 2000 employees. If you look on craigslist,  it seems like 40% of the bikes on there are Harleys. Talk about oversaturated market!.

Well, not for nothing, but the 2000 employee number was likely at the peak no? When they were selling 300k bikes/year and not 200k/year. Or was that before they built the Kansas City plant, because now they have 2 assembly plants in the US (not to mention final assembly plants in Brazil and India for those markets).

And, here's the thing, if it "seems" like ONLY 40% of the used bikes on CL are Harleys that's a good sign since Harley owns 50% of the US street bike market (600cc and above).
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Lannis on April 25, 2017, 09:11:26 AM
I have owned two Harley's, put about 40,000 miles on the bikes and never had a thing go wrong with either one of them, just oil and gas. 

I have owned (the operative word being "have" and not "do") owned three Harleys, put about 45,000 miles on them and never had a thing go wrong with them either.

So there must be another reason why I (and you, come to that, although they may not be the same reasons) don't presently own and ride Harleys despite all the improvements and refinements over the years .... ?   It can't be this "hate" or "prejudice" thing I hear so much about, so can the panel guess what it might be?

Lannis
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: kirby1923 on April 25, 2017, 09:33:35 AM
Fun to walk a different path!
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Rough Edge racing on April 25, 2017, 09:42:16 AM
I have owned (the operative word being "have" and not "do") owned three Harleys, put about 45,000 miles on them and never had a thing go wrong with them either.

So there must be another reason why I (and you, come to that, although they may not be the same reasons) don't presently own and ride Harleys despite all the improvements and refinements over the years .... ?   It can't be this "hate" or "prejudice" thing I hear so much about, so can the panel guess what it might be?

Lannis

 My Harley experience was years ago with hot rod Iron Head Sportster I built and two 70's  Shovelhead FX's...They were reliable for what they were...I sold the Sporty to buy the first FX and sold it because I didn't care for the handling...and weight...10 years later I bought another FX, rebuilt the engine, but wound up selling it after a year for the same reasons..handling feel and weight...
  New Harleys are the same to me despite many improvements, I don't like the weight and feel, it's that simple.... That doesn't mean they are bad, just not for me..
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: rocker59 on April 25, 2017, 10:11:49 AM

So there must be another reason why I (and you, come to that, although they may not be the same reasons) don't presently own and ride Harleys despite all the improvements and refinements over the years .... ?   It can't be this "hate" or "prejudice" thing I hear so much about, so can the panel guess what it might be?

Lannis

I've owned two HD Sportsters.  Loved the bikes.  The average HD owner is the reason I don't (and won't) ride HD anymore.  They're owning and riding motorcycles for different reasons than why I own and ride motorcycles. 
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Kev m on April 25, 2017, 10:17:32 AM
I've owned two HD Sportsters.  Loved the bikes.  The average HD owner is the reason I don't (and won't) ride HD anymore.  They're owning and riding motorcycles for different reasons than why I own and ride motorcycles.

I'm not entirely certain the same can't be said for almost every brand.

MOST BMW, Guzzi, Ducati, Harley, Triumph etc. etc. owners own/ride motorcycles probably for different reasons than most people who post on WG, and hell, not everyone who post on WG ride for the same reasons either.

I was at the 24th Annual Gathering of the Nortons this past Sunday interviewing a bunch of the guys there on Vintage bikes.

I went expecting to write one story, and wound up writing another one, because as it turned out, all those guys were the same but different too.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Lannis on April 25, 2017, 11:13:18 AM
I've owned two HD Sportsters.  Loved the bikes.  The average HD owner is the reason I don't (and won't) ride HD anymore.  They're owning and riding motorcycles for different reasons than why I own and ride motorcycles.

I wouldn't even change the phrasing; that's exactly why I don't ride them.   A goodly part of the motorcycling experience (for me) is in interacting with the people you meet, not just rolling down the highway.   And my interaction experiences when I was on Harleys was very off-putting, very much unlike my experiences on Guzzis and old Brits ....

Lannis
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: nc43bsa on April 25, 2017, 11:23:24 AM
I've owned two HD Sportsters.  Loved the bikes.  The average HD owner is the reason I don't (and won't) ride HD anymore.  They're owning and riding motorcycles for different reasons than why I own and ride motorcycles.

I posit that about 50% of Harley owners have them as fashion accessories.  They are not into riding as much as they are into being seen on a Harley.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: sib on April 25, 2017, 11:51:16 AM
I've owned two HD Sportsters.  Loved the bikes.  The average HD owner is the reason I don't (and won't) ride HD anymore.  They're owning and riding motorcycles for different reasons than why I own and ride motorcycles.
I can't quite grasp the logic here.  I suspect that I own and ride a Moto Guzzi for different reasons than most Guzzi riders who post here.  Unlike what seems to be the majority, I've only ridden motorcycles for the last 4 years, I own only one motorcycle, I don't want or plan to get another one, I don't plan to sell mine or modify it extensively, I ride it a lot (so far 15,000 miles on my '16 Stone), I believe in torque wrenches and the manufacturer's spec lubricants, and I don't have tattoos.  And I won't even mention political views.  These traits almost surely put me in the minority here, but I can't see why I shouldn't be riding and enjoying a Guzzi.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Rough Edge racing on April 25, 2017, 12:12:37 PM
I'm not entirely certain the same can't be said for almost every brand.

MOST BMW, Guzzi, Ducati, Harley, Triumph etc. etc. owners own/ride motorcycles probably for different reasons than most people who post on WG, and hell, not everyone who post on WG ride for the same reasons either.

I was at the 24th Annual Gathering of the Nortons this past Sunday interviewing a bunch of the guys there on Vintage bikes.

I went expecting to write one story, and wound up writing another one, because as it turned out, all those guys were the same but different too.

 Exactly....I build vintage Triumph race bikes...some vintage Triumph riders are stuffy pricks who endlessly discuss tiny details like paint colors and seat coverings...They look at me as hedonistic hillbilly who ruins their beloved bikes... A friend on his Guzzi and me on a tube frame Buell pulled into a large local local BMW bike dealer when they had new models out in front on display...The owner knows my friend and chatted briefly..He commented on the Guzzi and looked at the Buell like it was steaming coil of feces...
 On the other hand many vintage Triumph riders love my race junk and so on.....
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: JJ on April 25, 2017, 12:16:46 PM
Old Japanese proverb: "A garden with all the same color flowers would be boring..."  :cool:

I would submit it's the same for motorcycles... :thumb: :wink: 

Thankfully these days, and as riders and enthusiasts, there is a brand / model / style for everyone!
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: rocker59 on April 25, 2017, 12:21:50 PM
I can't quite grasp the logic here.   

What does logic have to do with it?

My response was quite restrained.  I've been riding for 43 years, and hundreds of thousands of miles.  The opinions I've developed have been developed over time and miles.  It's about the owners/riders and has nothing to do with the machines.  It doesn't matter if you get it, or don't get it.  It is what it is.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: JJ on April 25, 2017, 12:26:28 PM
 Quite illogical... :laugh: :grin: :wink:


(http://thumb.ibb.co/j1eLwQ/Screen_Shot_2017_04_25_at_10_22_45_AM.png) (http://ibb.co/j1eLwQ)

(http://thumb.ibb.co/h6gB35/Screen_Shot_2017_04_25_at_10_22_53_AM.png) (http://ibb.co/h6gB35)

(http://thumb.ibb.co/gx1pqk/Screen_Shot_2017_04_25_at_10_23_02_AM.png) (http://ibb.co/gx1pqk)
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: ITSec on April 25, 2017, 12:28:53 PM
No for nothing, but they've been reporting "bike shipments" and not end sales units since they've been a public company.

Also the sales report explain the M8 engine bikes are purposely being held back to help their dealers move the remaining TC models. FWIW, I witnessed the mayhem they caused in 2007 when they wholesale replaced the TC88 with the TC96 across all the big twin lines. Dealers all over suddenly woke up to the fact that they had dozens or more bikes in stock with motors that people didn't want because of the "latest greatest" so they are being smart about it this time.

(re HD Financial)
I'd be curious to learn more about this if you're willing to educate me.


I'm familiar with their reporting of shipments versus sales - and it's consistent with most other manufacturers since they consider the bike 'sold' when it goes on the dealers' inventory. It just isn't as informative as the other number would be, or better yet to have both and see the elasticity in the delivery chain.

HD Financial has long had the reputation of making loans that other lenders would walk away from. When I worked at a motorcycle dealership, we lost many sales because it would take us days or weeks to get financing approved for customers that could get HD Financial approval in days or even hours. Knowing what I did about those applications, I knew what HD Financial was taking on. Note this wasn't a problem with consumers with fair to good credit, who we could typically get approved within an hour, using the same sources.

In addition, HD Financial has a history of both a risky loan portfolio and turmoil within the organization. They relied on securitization of the loans (bundling them and selling the debt) in much the same way as the mortgage industry did - and they collapsed in the same way and at the same time.  No doubt this was in part a resulkt of the guy heading HD Financial at that time, who was from the mortgage industry. This USA Today article http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/companies/earnings/2009-01-23-harley_N.htm (http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/companies/earnings/2009-01-23-harley_N.htm) discussed the issue when their January 2009 results came out. HD Financial received more than $2 billion in bailout funding during the recession, as well as the company receiving a massive loan from Berkshire Hathaway.

For those who have been concerned by criticisms of the bikes, I'm limiting my comments to observations on the company and its management, and specifically the issues arising from the financial report. Given the large part HD makes up in the industry, the company's success or obstacles are a point of interest for all enthusiasts.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Lannis on April 25, 2017, 12:29:26 PM
I can't quite grasp the logic here.  I suspect that I own and ride a Moto Guzzi for different reasons than most Guzzi riders who post here.  Unlike what seems to be the majority, I've only ridden motorcycles for the last 4 years, I own only one motorcycle, I don't want or plan to get another one, I don't plan to sell mine or modify it extensively, I ride it a lot (so far 15,000 miles on my '16 Stone), I believe in torque wrenches and the manufacturer's spec lubricants, and I don't have tattoos.  And I won't even mention political views.  These traits almost surely put me in the minority here, but I can't see why I shouldn't be riding and enjoying a Guzzi.

I'm not sure I can help, but consider the fact that you ARE riding a Moto Guzzi instead of a Harley Davidson.   Despite the wide-ranging views on other life-subjects here, the traits that cause you to ride a Moto Guzzi mean that you have a lot of OTHER important things in common with other Guzzi riders, and that's what makes the difference.

I've told this story many a time, but I'll say again what got ME on Moto Guzzis.   My only bike was a BSA back in 2000, but Fay was interested in riding with me, and the BSA, being a high-pipe Firebird, had minimal passenger accommodations, so I was looking for a bigger highway bike.

I had ridden from home here in Virginia up to Ohio for the Ohio Valley BSA Summer Rally in 2000, and while I was there, Jack Arnold was at the BSA rally and engaged me in conversation, as Jack did.   When he found I lived in Virginia, he mentioned that the MGNOC National Rally was in Buena Vista, Virginia the next week, and maybe I'd like to ride over.

Well, I did, Buena Vista being a nice 70-mile ride over the mountains from my house.   As I rode into the spacious grounds, someone (turned out to be Rich Maund) on a Guzzi sidecar rode up and as I rode up the road, he rode circles around me with the hack's wheel in the air, shouting "Hey everyone, look at this nice BSA!".   

When I started looking around at everyone's bikes, they started tossing me their keys and offering that I take their bike up the road.   So I commandeered Roger Davis' nice SP-NT for a ride, and someone who I CANNOT remember gave me their Jackal, which was new that year.

I mean, how can you resist?   I just HAD to be riding the same bike as this bunch, because the chances of any of that happening at a Norton or BMW or Harley rally are ..... well, low.

That's my story and I'm stickin' to it.

Lannis
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Lannis on April 25, 2017, 12:41:25 PM
I did a bit of market analysis on this info when it came out a week or so back. Unfortunately, it shows shipments (to dealers) and not sales in units. Sales numbers are shown only in gross total by region.

The statement by HD mothercorp mentions that the backlog at dealers has been going down. That's probably a combination both of the time of year and of the reduced shipments from the factory. However, what the statement doesn't mention (and it's conspicuous by its absence) is sales of the Milwaukee 8 machines. The lack of mention leaves questions hanging. How well is the market accepting the new engines? Are there plans to complete the transition to that design for all bikes other than the Sporties (and for that matter, what about those bikes)? Is the increased cost of the new engine causing market resistance?

There's also no detail to show how they've come out in the accessories/parts area after dealing with the consent decree and penalty regarding the ECM performance benders.

HD Financial continues to hover on the edge. After their near-collapse during the recession, they appear to be returning to the lending practivecs that got them in trouble. It's an easy way to pump sales making loans that others won't, but there's a reason others won't.

The new Asian HDs' sales in that region are just taking off, so year-end numbers will tell a lot more.

Good analysis.

By the way, you can shine us on and green us all you want about your politics, but you ain't no "leftist"!   :grin:   :grin:

Lannis
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: ITSec on April 25, 2017, 12:46:55 PM
Good analysis.

By the way, you can shine us on and green us all you want about your politics, but you ain't no "leftist"!   :grin:   :grin:

Lannis

What can I say? I'm a socialist who knows somebody has to pay for all those nice programs, and my favorite reads include The Economist, Financial Times, and so on...  :evil:
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Lannis on April 25, 2017, 12:49:14 PM
What can I say? I'm a socialist who knows somebody has to pay for all those nice programs, and my favorite reads include The Economist, Financial Times, and so on...  :evil:

Well, thank goodness.   By that standard, I'm a leftist myself.   Workers of the world unite, comrade!

Lannis
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: blackcat on April 25, 2017, 01:18:57 PM
I have owned (the operative word being "have" and not "do") owned three Harleys, put about 45,000 miles on them and never had a thing go wrong with them either.

So there must be another reason why I (and you, come to that, although they may not be the same reasons) don't presently own and ride Harleys despite all the improvements and refinements over the years .... ?   It can't be this "hate" or "prejudice" thing I hear so much about, so can the panel guess what it might be?

Lannis

I just wanted something different and then 20 something years went by and I still enjoy my CX. Plus all the other Guzzi's.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Lannis on April 25, 2017, 01:36:17 PM

Old Japanese proverb: "A garden with all the same color flowers would be boring..."  :cool:

I would submit it's the same for motorcycles... :thumb: :wink: 


Ah, lovely old Japanese proverb ... It reminds me that I have a garden too.

It has lovely flowers of different colors and aromas, and supports me with edible vegetables.

It also sprouts weeds, poison ivy, slugs, gophers, crows, stinkbugs, vine borers, and yellow jackets.

So, come to think of it, the motorcycle analogy holds up very well!   :wink:   Those Japanese, wise as always!

Lannis
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Kev m on April 25, 2017, 02:17:58 PM
I'm familiar with their reporting of shipments versus sales - and it's consistent with most other manufacturers since they consider the bike 'sold' when it goes on the dealers' inventory. It just isn't as informative as the other number would be, or better yet to have both and see the elasticity in the delivery chain.

HD Financial has long had the reputation of making loans that other lenders would walk away from. When I worked at a motorcycle dealership, we lost many sales because it would take us days or weeks to get financing approved for customers that could get HD Financial approval in days or even hours. Knowing what I did about those applications, I knew what HD Financial was taking on. Note this wasn't a problem with consumers with fair to good credit, who we could typically get approved within an hour, using the same sources.

In addition, HD Financial has a history of both a risky loan portfolio and turmoil within the organization. They relied on securitization of the loans (bundling them and selling the debt) in much the same way as the mortgage industry did - and they collapsed in the same way and at the same time.  No doubt this was in part a resulkt of the guy heading HD Financial at that time, who was from the mortgage industry. This USA Today article http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/companies/earnings/2009-01-23-harley_N.htm (http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/companies/earnings/2009-01-23-harley_N.htm) discussed the issue when their January 2009 results came out. HD Financial received more than $2 billion in bailout funding during the recession, as well as the company receiving a massive loan from Berkshire Hathaway.

For those who have been concerned by criticisms of the bikes, I'm limiting my comments to observations on the company and its management, and specifically the issues arising from the financial report. Given the large part HD makes up in the industry, the company's success or obstacles are a point of interest for all enthusiasts.
Thanks for taking the time to detail that!
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Perazzimx14 on April 25, 2017, 02:32:19 PM
If Harley's future depends on me buying one the future is bleak. But this would also be the case for a lot of other manufacturers. Shame of it is no current production motorcycle out there save the novelty of a Grom even interests me. Maybe I've reached a point where I am happy with what I got :shocked:




Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: twowings on April 25, 2017, 02:33:15 PM
I'm just happy to be living in a country where I enjoy the freedom of never having to ride one.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: yogidozer on April 25, 2017, 02:47:42 PM
Wow! For a Guzzi forum, lot of interest in Harleys
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Kev m on April 25, 2017, 02:52:42 PM
If Harley's future depends on me buying one the future is bleak. But this would also be the case for a lot of other manufacturers. Shame of it is no current production motorcycle out there save the novelty of a Grom even interests me. Maybe I've reached a point where I am happy with what I got :shocked:

I want a couple current production Harleys.

I wouldn't mind a couple current production Guzzis.

I think Lemmy at ZLA just reminded me that I need to pay more attention to BMW, cause Nine T Pure looks pretty good to me right now.

I wouldn't turn my nose up and a couple of Triumphs.

My garage and bank account are both too small.

Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Arizona Wayne on April 25, 2017, 03:13:52 PM
The problem I have with Harleys is not the bike but the attitude of the majority of it's riders I've seen, met personally.  They act like if you don't ride a Harley like them you don't have a REAL MC.  Even the Harley slogan is, "we don't sell a MC, we sell a lifestyle".   Most BMW riders have an attitude too but at least they will wave to me on the road.  Very few HD riders will.

At 1 time I even considered buying a Buell, until I road tested it and experienced the shaking just off idle.  :rolleyes:   Even license plates were breaking off the Buell demo bikes that day.  Then I found out HD riders weren't crazy about Buell riders either.  So it's not so much the bikes as it is the attitude of most HD riders. That attitude reaps what it sows.

1 time some of us Guzzi & HD riders stopped @ a Japanese Garden in norCal and as us Guzzisti were getting ready to leave a gal HD rider said to us, "bet you wish you were on a Harley."  Where I responded, "we'll still talk to you." Her mouth dropped wide open.  :boxing:
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: JJ on April 25, 2017, 04:19:18 PM
What can I say? I'm a socialist who knows somebody has to pay for all those nice programs, and my favorite reads include The Economist, Financial Times, and so on...  :evil:

But the REAL issue here...is can ITSec sing....."O' Canada?!?" (lol)  :laugh: :grin: :wink: :rolleyes: :shocked:
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: ITSec on April 25, 2017, 04:22:16 PM
Well, thank goodness.   By that standard, I'm a leftist myself.   Workers of the world unite, comrade!

Lannis

May Day is just around the corner - celebrate International Workers' Day!

Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: ITSec on April 25, 2017, 04:28:38 PM
But the REAL issue here...is can ITSec sing....."O' Canada?!?" (lol)  :laugh: :grin: :wink: :rolleyes: :shocked:

All the verses in English (as long as they don't keep changing the words!). The first verse in French -- but my accent is classic French, not Quebecois.  :grin:

And I can also sing the first and fourth verses of the Star Spangled Banner (dual citizenship, after all...)! Does anyone actually know the second and third? They always seems to get skipped...  :huh:
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Lannis on April 25, 2017, 04:37:40 PM
May Day is just around the corner - celebrate International Workers' Day!

I'm retired.    :azn:
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: boatdetective on April 25, 2017, 05:09:30 PM
I respect the history of Harley- especially after visiting the museum. I just bought a bike out of a Harley repair shop and the owner and his riding buddy "Scruffy" were GREAT guys- real old school riders.

However, I get the feeling that these two grizzled, authentic riders can get drowned out by all the poseurs.  I've gotten "Italian crap" comments and a general disdain from many Harley guys.  I suspect this behavior is from the ones concerned with image rather than road time.  As for the machines, I rented a Road King in Montana and it was a truly awful riding experience.  What an unforgivable pig.

The support network here on WG has been truly great. I stuck with the marque to a great extent because of all the help from you folks- thank you.  It's a great group.  Having said that, i went to the National rally in NH and found most of the people gathered in their own cliques and not especially friendly. Lannis was there and it was really nice to meet finally. Chuck in Ind was there with the Aero Lario and was equally pleasant. 

I sold the 1200S and just bought a BMW R1200R. So far- it's a wonderful machine.  I'm willing to sacrifice a little "exclusivity" in the name of original build quality. 


Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: redrider90 on April 25, 2017, 05:21:18 PM
In 2004 I inherited a little money. I took a small amount and started a small portfolio. The rest went into savings.
At that time a good friend's father who was a very successful retired stock broker had made up a list of 20 stocks for my friend to invest for his 2 kids for an education fund. My friend shared that list with me and HOG on the list of stocks. At the time it was going for about $55/share. As a long time biker (who also had owned 2 Harleys) In 2004 I  saw little upside in the long term for HOG as an investment. And in the long term that proved to be correct. Sure they peaked twice  Today HOG closed a $57.21. Just 2 bucks more some 13 years later. I did invest in many of the other stocks and have been fortunate to do well in that small portfolio. I am not a Harley hater and I was looking at it as an investment. I think today it's even a worse investment than it was in 2004.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Kev m on April 25, 2017, 05:26:50 PM
In 2004 I inherited a little money. I took a small amount and started a small portfolio. The rest went into savings.
At that time a good friend's father who was a very successful retired stock broker had made up a list of 20 stocks for my friend to invest for his 2 kids for an education fund. My friend shared that list with me and HOG on the list of stocks. At the time it was going for about $55/share. As a long time biker (who also had owned 2 Harleys) In 2004 I  saw little upside in the long term for HOG as an investment. And in the long term that proved to be correct. Sure they peaked twice  Today HOG closed a $57.21. Just 2 bucks more some 13 years later. I did invest in many of the other stocks and have been fortunate to do well in that small portfolio. I am not a Harley hater and I was looking at it as an investment. I think today it's even a worse investment than it was in 2004.
It was an investment in the 90's.

I believe our friends who tour on Sportsters bought them both with their gains.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Perazzimx14 on April 25, 2017, 05:33:55 PM
I want a couple current production Harleys.

I wouldn't mind a couple current production Guzzis.

I think Lemmy at ZLA just reminded me that I need to pay more attention to BMW, cause Nine T Pure looks pretty good to me right now.

I wouldn't turn my nose up and a couple of Triumphs.

My garage and bank account are both too small.

I have room and play money from the sales of 4 bikes last year and still nothing. I peruse CL periodically wanting to find something that tickles my taint but nothing. Like I said with money in hand and room to spare the lowly Grom is the only thing even remotely sparking any interest. Either pretty sad or I have reached a Zen like state,  :undecided:

Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: tazio on April 25, 2017, 06:07:29 PM
I don't think Harley is going away. Ever.
The Motor Company is a national treasure for crying out loud.
The U.S. Gov't wouldn't allow it.

Anyway, make mine a Fatboy. Hell, they even named it after me..
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Kev m on April 25, 2017, 06:20:11 PM
I have room and play money from the sales of 4 bikes last year and still nothing. I peruse CL periodically wanting to find something that tickles my taint but nothing. Like I said with money in hand and room to spare the lowly Grom is the only thing even remotely sparking any interest. Either pretty sad or I have reached a Zen like state,  :undecided:
Call it Zen and enjoy it.

Or put in an internet order for hormones. [emoji6] [emoji12] [emoji56]
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Ncdan on April 25, 2017, 07:58:42 PM
It was an investment in the 90's.

I believe our friends who tour on Sportsters bought them both with their gains.
You're right Kev. I bought some in the early 90s and nearly double my money when I sold it. To bad I didn't have that much to invest as it was a small part of my portfolio.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: redrider90 on April 25, 2017, 08:26:08 PM
It was an investment in the 90's.

I believe our friends who tour on Sportsters bought them both with their gains.

The NYSE was 4700 in 1990 and is now just shy of 21,000. Most people who invested in NYSE funds in the 90s did well if they left their money in the market. That is an easy one. My very frugal lower middle class parents did damn well in the 90's even with very little to invest.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: kingoffleece on April 25, 2017, 08:34:57 PM
I was working at Dean Witter Reynolds when HOG went public.  IPO price was 10 bucks if I remember correct.
We got a lot of it at offering for clients.  They did really well with it way back when.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Tom on April 25, 2017, 08:37:56 PM
I'm glad that I bought my Guzzi's when they were affordable for the collection.  They have acquired value from what others are willing to pay for the older ones.  "Supply and demand".   :thumb:  Along the way I've acquired other bikes but Moto Guzzi are the ones that I won't sell.  I generally keep them all.  :shocked:
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: LowRyter on April 26, 2017, 12:40:58 PM
In 2004 I inherited a little money. I took a small amount and started a small portfolio. The rest went into savings.
At that time a good friend's father who was a very successful retired stock broker had made up a list of 20 stocks for my friend to invest for his 2 kids for an education fund. My friend shared that list with me and HOG on the list of stocks. At the time it was going for about $55/share. As a long time biker (who also had owned 2 Harleys) In 2004 I  saw little upside in the long term for HOG as an investment. And in the long term that proved to be correct. Sure they peaked twice  Today HOG closed a $57.21. Just 2 bucks more some 13 years later. I did invest in many of the other stocks and have been fortunate to do well in that small portfolio. I am not a Harley hater and I was looking at it as an investment. I think today it's even a worse investment than it was in 2004.

no splits?
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Texas Turnip on April 26, 2017, 02:24:28 PM
Get a life you Harley bashers. Check out Three Flags Classic, Four Corners tour and the Iron Butt for a lisgt of lots of Harley riders. You can find Guzzis that are ten years old with less miles than my mom puts on her walker.

Tex
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Perazzimx14 on April 26, 2017, 02:37:24 PM
Get a life you Harley bashers. Check out Three Flags Classic, Four Corners tour, the Iron Butt and predominately Starbucks for a list of lots of Harley riders. You can find Guzzis that are ten years old with less miles than my mom puts on her walker.

Tex

 :wink:
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Rebochi on April 26, 2017, 02:39:45 PM
no splits?
http://getsplithistory.com/HOG

   It split a few times over the years. I paid off my house when I sold some Harley and Polaris stock during one of the peaks, Still invested in both companies  and I a positive that both will a great investment.
 
 
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: bad Chad on April 26, 2017, 05:22:18 PM
As some with a lot of money seem to feel the future of HD looks bright.

A local dealer outside of Chicago, Woodstock HD, had a very big shop on the well used corner of IL 47 and 14.  It was far larger than any Guzzi dealer ever.  They just folded that shop, and moved it across the street to the former Kmart location!!!  It is now beyond massive!  I assume they think this thing will last a while?
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: redrider90 on April 26, 2017, 05:27:09 PM
no splits?


HOG has zero splits since going public.  :copcar:   Rebochi links 4 splits from 1990-2000
My mistake. Since 2000 HOG has had no splits. If you look at these figures HOG has had near ZERO growth since 2007.
A $10,000 investment in 2007 would yield today $10,754.88 if you reinvested dividends.

https://www.splithistory.com/hog/

Start date:    04/26/2007    
End date:    04/25/2017    
Start price/share:    $65.34    
End price/share:    $57.21    
Starting shares:    153.05    
Ending shares:    188.07    
Dividends reinvested/share:    $8.65    
Total return:    7.59%    
Average Annual Total Return:    0.73%    
Starting investment:    $10,000.00    
Ending investment:    $10,754.88    
Years:    10.01
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: JJ on April 26, 2017, 05:29:12 PM
Get a life you Harley bashers. Check out Three Flags Classic, Four Corners tour and the Iron Butt for a lisgt of lots of Harley riders. You can find Guzzis that are ten years old with less miles than my mom puts on her walker.

Tex

Back in my ol' Harley days, we used to RIDE to Four Corners and many of the HOG rallies around the Southwest.  It was always an adventure and a lot of fun. :thumb: :1: :cool:
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: LowRyter on April 26, 2017, 07:52:15 PM

HOG has zero splits since going public.

whooaaa.   This caused me to remove my reply above. 
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: redrider90 on April 26, 2017, 08:56:31 PM
whooaaa.   This caused me to remove my reply above.


My mistake.
I was wrong. HOG has Zero splits since 2000. I didn't go back far enough.
 Rebochi links 4 splits from 1990-2000
So going back just the past 10 years with no splits this is what HOG looks like.  If you look at these figures HOG has had near ZERO growth since 2007.
A $10,000 investment in 2007 would yield today $10,754.88 if you reinvested dividends.

https://www.splithistory.com/hog/

Start date:    04/26/2007    
End date:    04/25/2017    
Start price/share:    $65.34    
End price/share:    $57.21    
Starting shares:    153.05    
Ending shares:    188.07    
Dividends reinvested/share:    $8.65    
Total return:    7.59%    
Average Annual Total Return:    0.73%    
Starting investment:    $10,000.00    
Ending investment:    $10,754.88    
Years:    10.01
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Kev m on April 26, 2017, 08:59:29 PM

HOG has zero splits since going public.  :copcar:
My mistake. Since 2000 HOG has had no splits. If you look at these figures HOG has had near ZERO growth since 2007.
A $10,000 investment in 2007 would yield today $10,754.88 if you reinvested dividends.

https://www.splithistory.com/hog/

Start date: 04/26/2007
End date: 04/25/2017
Start price/share: $65.34
End price/share: $57.21
Starting shares: 153.05
Ending shares: 188.07
Dividends reinvested/share: $8.65
Total return: 7.59%
Average Annual Total Return: 0.73%
Starting investment: $10,000.00
Ending investment: $10,754.88
Years: 10.01
Ok so what's the BIG picture.

They've been publicly traded since the late 60's, and HOG was listed on the NYSE in 87.

So since 87 what are the numbers like?
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: redrider90 on April 26, 2017, 09:41:38 PM
Ok so what's the BIG picture.

They've been publicly traded since the late 60's, and HOG was listed on the NYSE in 87.

So since 87 what are the numbers like?

I do not have the numbers but I'd be the farm and that HOG has under performed the Market since 1987. My god did you not just see the numbers  I put up for the last 10 years? ZERO growth in the market.
Now we are talking finances and not motorcycles here. They are a looser. Their stock is going nowhere. Now they plan on introducing what 50 new bikes in the next 5 years and let's see what they come up with. 50 new bikes in 5 years is 10 new models a year. That is going to be an amazing feat to accomplish.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Arizona Wayne on April 26, 2017, 09:52:43 PM
On making a lot of profit on stock the only way you really make a killing is if you buy it at the beginning when it's really cheap , stay with it, and if you're lucky it really grows years later, like WalMart, Apple, etc.  :wink:  Or you buy it low and sell it when it get's high by watching it every day instead of doing other things like riding your MC.  :bike-037:
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: ITSec on April 26, 2017, 10:04:23 PM
I do not have the numbers but I'd be the farm and that HOG has under performed the Market since 1987. My god did you not just see the numbers  I put up for the last 10 years? ZERO growth in the market.
Now we are talking finances and not motorcycles here. They are a looser. Their stock is going nowhere. Now they plan on introducing what 50 new bikes in the next 5 years and let's see what they come up with. 50 new bikes in 5 years is 10 new models a year. That is going to be an amazing feat to accomplish.

50 new bikes in 5 years is (sort of) easy if you get to define what 'new' means. I rather expect that every model will be counted as 'new' if it gets the Milwaukee 8 added. Then count it as a model even if it's just cosmetically different but uses the same frame, engine options, etc.

Are all the 1400cc California-based Guzzis really different models? Some certainly are, as fork rake, frame changes, and other things make them distinct - they handle differently, are aimed at a somewhat different audience, and so on. But vehicle makers (automotive and motorcycle) have always been (shall we say) flexible in how they set the bar for what makes a distinct model.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: arveno on April 26, 2017, 10:22:56 PM
Harleys are great bikes....

I dislike the stereotypical hd rider.... but that does not mean harley davidson are not great bikes.

sales go up and down... but they will always be there .
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: redrider90 on April 26, 2017, 10:46:37 PM
On making a lot of profit on stock the only way you really make a killing is if you buy it at the beginning when it's really cheap , stay with it, and if you're lucky it really grows years later, like WalMart, Apple, etc.  :wink:  Or you buy it low and sell it when it get's high by watching it every day instead of doing other things like riding your MC.  :bike-037:

I bought handful of shares of apple when it was quite expensive. It split a few months later and I am pretty happy.  Buying early is good but it is hard to do successfully.  I got a lot of green solar panel stocks that I bought early but the Chinese took down every single stock because they flooded the market with panels. I wouldn't own Walmart but I did buy Costco and it has out performed Walmart while paying its employees a living wage with benefits.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Arizona Wayne on April 26, 2017, 10:52:07 PM
I bought handful of shares of apple when it was quite expensive. It split a few months later and I am pretty happy.  Buying early is good but it is hard to do successfully.  I got a lot of green solar panel stocks that I bought early but the Chinese took down every single stock because they flooded the market with panels. I wouldn't own Walmart but I did buy Costco and it has out performed Walmart while paying its employees a living wage with benefits.


If WM didn't pay it's employees a living wage like you claim they wouldn't have such loyal employees.  How about proving what you said here.  :wink:
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Penderic on April 26, 2017, 11:43:22 PM
On the road, or in the ditch ....

(http://i1299.photobucket.com/albums/ag77/Penderic/Penderic005/ditch%20pump_zpsujgyaqws.jpg)
 :laugh:
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Kev m on April 27, 2017, 05:37:17 AM


I do not have the numbers but I'd be the farm and that HOG has under performed the Market since 1987. My god did you not just see the numbers  I put up for the last 10 years? ZERO growth in the market.
Now we are talking finances and not motorcycles here. They are a looser. Their stock is going nowhere. Now they plan on introducing what 50 new bikes in the next 5 years and let's see what they come up with. 50 new bikes in 5 years is 10 new models a year. That is going to be an amazing feat to accomplish.

The last 10 years have been horrible for the company (and they're not alone in that). The cherry picked start date of that is the recession. I was asking historically, and you seem to be ignoring:

http://getsplithistory.com/HOG

So 5 splits between 1990 & 2000 (1990,1992, 1994, 1997, & 2000).

Looks like that was a great time to hold that stock.

Now I'm not speculating we'll see that again from them in our lifetime, but I was simply pointing out it wasn't always like this past 10 years.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Travlr on April 27, 2017, 09:16:37 AM
I've owned two HD Sportsters.  Loved the bikes.  The average HD owner is the reason I don't (and won't) ride HD anymore.  They're owning and riding motorcycles for different reasons than why I own and ride motorcycles.

My sentiments exactly.  Good bikes, wrong culture for me.

M
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: LowRyter on April 27, 2017, 10:45:35 AM

The last 10 years have been horrible for the company (and they're not alone in that). The cherry picked start date of that is the recession. I was asking historically, and you seem to be ignoring:

http://getsplithistory.com/HOG

So 5 splits between 1990 & 2000 (1990,1992, 1994, 1997, & 2000).

Looks like that was a great time to hold that stock.

Now I'm not speculating we'll see that again from them in our lifetime, but I was simply pointing out it wasn't always like this past 10 years.

that would mean that $100 invested would be worth $3200.  Pretty good deal if you bought it in the '80s and sold it '00s. 

And of course, not being a Harley fan, I thought I knew better.    :embarrassed:
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: redrider90 on April 27, 2017, 11:03:04 AM

If WM didn't pay it's employees a living wage like you claim they wouldn't have such loyal employees.  How about proving what you said here.  :wink:

Note he difference in wages, benefits (including health care) and turn over rates. "loyal" WM employees average 44% which is the industry average whereas Costco averages a turnover 17%.
Another note read the article about WM employees receiving public assistance because the do NOT make a living wage. Earning above the minimum wage does not mean WM employees  are making a living wage.
Costco employees do not receive public assistance.
See "Workers At This Giant Retail Company Are Really Happy With Their Pay"
https://thinkprogress.org/workers-at-this-giant-retail-company-are-really-happy-with-their-pay-817205eaa672

From Forbes hardly a left wing journal
Report: Walmart Workers Cost Taxpayers $6.2 Billion In Public Assistance
https://www.forbes.com/sites/clareoconnor/2014/04/15/report-walmart-workers-cost-taxpayers-6-2-billion-in-public-assistance/#7208cf0a720b

Another article from Forbes
Walmart Pays Workers Poorly And Sinks While Costco Pays Workers Well And Sails-Proof That You Get What You Pay For
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2013/04/17/walmart-pays-workers-poorly-and-sinks-while-costco-pays-workers-well-and-sails-proof-that-you-get-what-you-pay-for/#19db67e46cdf


Also From the Harvard Business Review
https://hbr.org/2006/12/the-high-cost-of-low-wages
Though the businesses are direct competitors and quite similar overall, a remarkable disparity shows up in their wage and benefits structures. The average wage at Costco is $17 an hour. Wal-Mart does not break out the pay of its Sam�s Club workers, but a full-time worker at Wal-Mart makes $10.11 an hour on average, and a variety of sources suggest that Sam�s Club�s pay scale is similar to Wal-Mart�s. A 2005 New York Times article by Steven Greenhouse reported that at $17 an hour, Costco�s average pay is 72% higher than Sam�s Club�s ($9.86 an hour). Interviews that a colleague and I conducted with a dozen Sam�s Club employees in San Francisco and Denver put the average hourly wage at about $10. And a 2004 BusinessWeek article by Stanley Holmes and Wendy Zellner estimated Sam�s Club�s average hourly wage at $11.52.

On the benefits side, 82% of Costco employees have health-insurance coverage, compared with less than half at Wal-Mart. And Costco workers pay just 8% of their health premiums, whereas Wal-Mart workers pay 33% of theirs. Ninety-one percent of Costco�s employees are covered by retirement plans, with the company contributing an annual average of $1,330 per employee, while 64 percent of employees at Sam�s Club are covered, with the company contributing an annual average of $747 per employee.

Costco�s practices are clearly more expensive, but they have an offsetting cost-containment effect: Turnover is unusually low, at 17% overall and just 6% after one year�s employment. In contrast, turnover at Wal-Mart is 44% a year, close to the industry average.



And finally a few examples of wages.
WM hourly wages for lots more see 
https://www.glassdoor.com/Hourly-Pay/Walmart-Hourly-Pay-E715.htm

Averages for some positions Virtually in all positions Costco our performs WM.
Sales Associate 1,525 salaries $9.40 hourly
Walmart Cashier 1,172 salaries $9.30 hourly
Guest Service Team Member - Cashier 851 salaries $9.17 hourly
Overnight Stocker 585 salaries $10.12 hourly
Certified Pharmacy Technician 350 salaries $13.25 hourly

Costco (note all Costco full time employees get health care and paid leave. Not so at WM.)
https://www.glassdoor.com/Hourly-Pay/Costco-Wholesale-Hourly-Pay-E2590.htm
Front End Assistant 207 salaries $12.55 hourly
Cashier Assistant (Front End Assistant) 141 salaries $12.84 hourly
Cashier 138 salaries $14.48 hourly
Certified Pharmacy Technician 45 salaries $17.97 hourly

Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: LowRyter on April 27, 2017, 11:34:11 AM
Getting into Walmart.  My brother with the new Corvette and new Beemer Exclusive motorcycle is the Walmart Manager of the Year. 

Basically he's the number one store manager in USA as awarded at the Walmart Conf in Orlando last month.   I am talking among tens of thousands of 5,000 stores.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Lannis on April 27, 2017, 12:11:00 PM

Costco�s practices are clearly more expensive, but they have an offsetting cost-containment effect: Turnover is unusually low, at 17% overall and just 6% after one year�s employment. In contrast, turnover at Wal-Mart is 44% a year, close to the industry average. [/b][/u][/i]


This.   

Paying people a wage that will encourage them to stay, encourage them to show up for work and do a good job, and therefore does NOT cause the company to incur the huge costs of training (not just how to do the job, but safety, harassment, and all those other things) and inefficiencies associated with high turnover is the right way to manage.

It's just good business.  HOWEVER, (and with apologies to any accountants here) once the Green Eyeshades start running the business, with no regard to ANYTHING except "We're paying too much" and no attempt to manage anything except a spreadsheet, the company is on its way out .... Seen it happen in my own career, and Fay has seen it happen in some of the small businesses she's helped out.

Lannis
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: rocker59 on April 27, 2017, 01:08:56 PM
Getting into Walmart.  My brother with the new Corvette and new Beemer Exclusive motorcycle is the Walmart Manager of the Year. 

Basically he's the number one store manager in USA as awarded at the Walmart Conf in Orlando last month.   I am talking among tens of thousands of stores.

So he's the poor schmuck who put in the most unpaid over time last year, huh??  LOL!

Oh,  from The Google:    " In 2017, there were a total of 4,672 Walmart stores throughout the United States...  Walmart operated a total of 11695 stores throughout the world."
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Rough Edge racing on April 27, 2017, 01:18:19 PM
 Walmart is only obligated by law to pay minimum wage...Most of the jobs there require entry level skills....If people think they don't pay enough ,then find another job...If Walmart's can't find enough workers they will then raise the rate of pay...
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: LowRyter on April 27, 2017, 01:24:21 PM
OK Rock, my bad.  He's the top of 5,000 stores.  For some reason I thought the international number was number of stores in the USA. 

He ran a Market before taking a SuperCenter.   He was a test store for online purchase and store delivery.  Basically you can in order online and they have it ready for pick up.  He made the whole concept work. He also has loyalty from his employees. 

I really didn't want to get into Walmart (pro and con) but to blow the horn for my little bro.
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Lannis on April 27, 2017, 01:24:59 PM
Walmart is only obligated by law to pay minimum wage...Most of the jobs there require entry level skills....If people think they don't pay enough ,then find another job...If Walmart's can't find enough workers they will then raise the rate of pay...

That's right .. but WalMart is banking on enough people being around to take their jobs, even if they find out they're getting paid peanuts and they quit.

And it's working for them.    People in my little town were almost crying with joy when a WalMart came here 4 or 5 years ago, about like they did when they put up the first traffic light.

"We've finally made it!   We're on the map!   We have a WALMART!  Thank God, finally".

WalMart could station someone at the door to kick every customer that comes in the door square in the ass, and people would still come pouring in and spending their money.   It's The Promised Land ....

Lannis
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: oldbike54 on April 27, 2017, 01:33:01 PM
 OK fellas , these Wal Mart discussions always go south pretty quickly , let's not go there, agreed . They are what they are , and it might be important here to remember that
Mrs. Wild Guzzi is an executive with the company . One thing to torque off Rocker , Luap, or me , but you REALLY , and I MEAN REALLY , don't want to get that nice lady on your case . Get it , got it , good .

 Dusty
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Rough Edge racing on April 27, 2017, 01:43:51 PM
That's right .. but WalMart is banking on enough people being around to take their jobs, even if they find out they're getting paid peanuts and they quit.


 

Lannis

 The secret of their success I suppose.....
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Lannis on April 27, 2017, 02:16:08 PM
OK fellas , these Wal Mart discussions always go south pretty quickly , let's not go there, agreed . They are what they are , and it might be important here to remember that
Mrs. Wild Guzzi is an executive with the company . One thing to torque off Rocker , Luap, or me , but you REALLY , and I MEAN REALLY , don't want to get that nice lady on your case . Get it , got it , good .

 Dusty

Well, that's a good point ... it's one thing to say "What an ugly custom bike that is!" but it's another to say "Is that your dog or your girlfriend?   Wow, she's ugly".   We don't do the latter.

The positive from this is that it's great marketing information.   "Hey, here's some geezers in red suspenders, and LISTEN to what they're saying about WalMart!    This bit here, it couldn't be true by any chance could it?   Check with accounting and see ..."

Lannis (The only thing worse than being talked about is NOT being talked about ... Oscar Wilde, I think)
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: sib on April 27, 2017, 02:46:47 PM
(The only thing worse than being talked about is NOT being talked about ... Oscar Wilde, I think)
I think it was Anna Nicole Smith who explained to her distraught mother that "in my business, any press coverage is good press coverage."
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Lannis on April 27, 2017, 02:48:28 PM
I think it was Anna Nicole Smith who explained to her distraught mother that "in my business, any press coverage is good press coverage."

Although Oscar Wilde is not necessarily a very good source of wisdom, I'm VERY relieved that I didn't know what Anna Nicole Smith said to her mother ....  :wink:
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: rocker59 on April 27, 2017, 03:56:16 PM
Although Oscar Wilde is not necessarily a very good source of wisdom, I'm VERY relieved that I didn't know what Anna Nicole Smith said to her mother ....  :wink:

LOL!   :thumb:
Title: Re: Harleys future?
Post by: Tom on April 28, 2017, 01:50:14 PM
Modern living through chemistry???   :shocked: