Wildgoose Chase Moto Guzzi

General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: reidy on December 08, 2018, 07:06:20 PM

Title: Future classics
Post by: reidy on December 08, 2018, 07:06:20 PM
There has been a few posts about how much some older bikes including Guzzi's are selling for. This question is what are your predictions for future classics for the bikes that are say 5 to 10 years old now.

Some here would remember when bikes like the CB 750 or Kawaka Z9 changed the face of motorcycling. I remember the GPZ900 as one of the first water cooled Japanese bikes that so many have followed on from. I can't remember the last time I saw a nice GPZ900 on the road or one advertised. I am sure these have a following but not like I would have expected.

I have been giving this some thought and can't pick any bikes of late that seem destine to become the Vincent, 750 Ducati or V7 Guzzi sport from this generation. I am sure there will be a few ultra rare bikes that are highly collectible. I am thinking more mainstream stuff. It may be a Harley but with so many in circulation I can't see a point where demand will outstrip supply and push prices up.   

So what are your thoughts? 

Steve
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Aaron D. on December 08, 2018, 07:09:45 PM
Really can't tell. But look for desirable and attractive and you won't go wrong.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: reidy on December 08, 2018, 07:56:34 PM
I am not asking with the intention to purchase a shed full of classics or even one as it is a tough way to make money in my opinion. For example Australian Superannuation has averaged something like 7.2% increase per year over the last 30 years. That works out that your money doubles ever 10 years.

If I had of purchase a good but not perfect GPZ900 in 1988 I would have paid about $3500. In fact I did but it is long gone. To keep up with Super it would had to have been worth $7000 in 98, $14 000 in 2008 and $28 000 this year just to break even if I didn't have any storage costs, no maintenance, didn't insure or register it and could find a buyer for a bike that had not been started in 30 years.   

If I had of had exceptionally good taste and purchased the right bike in 88, used it and maintained it and still enjoyed it now I could argue that I would be in front financially, maybe. The question is more to find out what people think are the collectibles.

Steve

 
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Tusayan on December 08, 2018, 07:56:58 PM
The classic car era extends only through the early 70s then ends abruptly due to regulations from that time and their impact on low volume models and producers.  The same thing is happening with motorcycles, delayed to maybe pre model year 2000.  Some stuff from the 90s will become collectable, Italian and some Japanese bikes reflecting the existing pattern.  Very little after the very early 2000s will ever be collectible in my judgement.

Now is the time to buy Italian sport bikes of the 90s.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: jas67 on December 08, 2018, 08:01:08 PM
The mid 2000's Ducati Sport Classics, 1000GT, 1000 Sport, and esp. the Paul Smart 1000LE are all already collectable, just look at the prices.

It is possible some Buell models might become collectables as well.

Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: oldbike54 on December 08, 2018, 08:05:47 PM
 Maybe the last Buells , or the EBR sportbike , the 1000 GTS Yamaha , and possibly some of those exotic limited production Italian off road gp bikes . The name escapes me at the moment .

 Dusty
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: gliderjohn on December 08, 2018, 08:15:57 PM
Of late models, Motus? A bit older, Honda GB500.
GliderJohn
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Bulldog9 on December 08, 2018, 08:21:53 PM
We can always hope............... . I hope my xs1100 and 750 become classics and collectible, but not yet..... Maybe the Griso?  Stornello? ;-) Even my 912E?  But hey, I'm cheap and poorish so never really have/had the chance to get into a 'collectible' category....... I buy and keep what I like and can afford and LOVE the crap out of/care for what I am fortunate to have....
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Lannis on December 08, 2018, 08:56:37 PM
The same skills and intuition that would allow one to predict which motorcycles would be "classics" in the future would also allow one to predict what companies have share prices that are going to triple or quadruple in the next few years.

Lemme know if you figure out the secret ... !!!

Lannis
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Bob Wegman on December 08, 2018, 09:41:23 PM
I kind of like when they aren't too valuable because you don't have to worry much about theft. 
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Kev m on December 08, 2018, 10:47:53 PM
The classic car era extends only through the early 70s then ends abruptly due to regulations from that time and their impact on low volume models and producers.  The same thing is happening with motorcycles, delayed to maybe pre model year 2000.  Some stuff from the 90s will become collectable, Italian and some Japanese bikes reflecting the existing pattern.  Very little after the very early 2000s will ever be collectible in my judgement.

Now is the time to buy Italian sport bikes of the 90s.

I think that's very bad comparison.

What killed the immediate post 70 classic car market was a sudden neutering of performance. That cant be said of the late model bike evolution
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: fotoguzzi on December 08, 2018, 11:04:41 PM
The V11 Sport Greenie is on my list. And a Buell should be there.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: jas67 on December 09, 2018, 01:02:13 AM
I think that's very bad comparison.

What killed the immediate post 70 classic car market was a sudden neutering of performance. That cant be said of the late model bike evolution

Well, yes and no.   IMHO, at least in the case of American cars, the styling of post 1970 classic cars got worse, especially the extremely boxy 1980's.
So, it wasn't just the performance, but, the styling.   By the mid-90's performance was back, and now, crazy amounts of performance are available, 500-700 HP available in modern day muscle cars.   Heck, even your typical V6 family sedan is quicker than the the typical 1960's or 1970's muscle cars.

Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: fossil on December 09, 2018, 01:34:47 AM
Future classic? Well, what about the Himalayan? And, as it somehow follows in itt tracks, but promises to be more versatile, the V85 TT?
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: JohninVT on December 09, 2018, 07:24:39 AM
First gen 900SS are very undervalued.  They trade at 3-4K for very nice examples.  I think that will double in the next decade.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: s1120 on December 09, 2018, 07:39:40 AM
First gen 900SS are very undervalued.  They trade at 3-4K for very nice examples.  I think that will double in the next decade.

I agree with that. As there gets less and less of them, and tastes change back to a more simple early sportbike style..  Your already seeing the fist gen GSXR750, and 1100 getting up there in price. As far as guzzi..  the easy pick in a more modern, after the 70's era would be the 1000S...  its already getting up there, and I dont see a end to it... Will it surpass the first gen LM and V7 sport?... time will tell.. 
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: rider33 on December 09, 2018, 07:43:18 AM
I think design and rarity has something to do with it.  I sold my W650 with 15,000 miles on it for not a lot less than what I paid for it new.  It was a one of the first classic retro designs relanched with only 2000 brought into the states.  Prices on them have held up remarkable well for a 17-18 year old mid size Japanese standard.  It will be interesting to see what impact if any the W800 will have on that.  I do think some of the Buell's will be quite collectible and believe it or not, some of the new V7's as well- they are just too distinctive and still fairly uncommon. Of them,  I think the V7/50 stands a pretty good chance, then again I might be a bit biased:
(https://vgy.me/KmDaic.jpg)
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: sdcr on December 09, 2018, 08:19:24 AM
I thought the original poster was looking at the period just past the century mark, say 2001 -20013 in that period I would suggest the MV Agusta F4, the Ducati Paul Smart edition and the Griso green edition( not sure if the last one was a limited model)
Extendeing that period to 20-25 years, I would include the Ducati 900 Superlight, and to some extent the numbered 900 SS/SP, as well as the 916.
kawasaki W650, so e of the Buells, the last BMW airhead models Honda GB500. Those are my crystal ball picks.
Now if my crystal ball would just give me tomorrow's lottery numbers, I can buy them all!
 
First gen 900SS are very undervalued.  They trade at 3-4K for very nice examples.  I think that will double in the next decade.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Kev m on December 09, 2018, 08:34:27 AM
Well, yes and no.   IMHO, at least in the case of American cars, the styling of post 1970 classic cars got worse, especially the extremely boxy 1980's.
So, it wasn't just the performance, but, the styling.   By the mid-90's performance was back, and now, crazy amounts of performance are available, 500-700 HP available in modern day muscle cars.   Heck, even your typical V6 family sedan is quicker than the the typical 1960's or 1970's muscle cars.

Styling is subjective, but I'd generally agree with you that it also contributed.

I'll add that I think the return and then leaps forward in performance probably means we are seeing future classic cars again, but we're too close to "see" it.

Either way the comparison still doesn't hold.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Bill E. on December 09, 2018, 08:39:41 AM
 Maybe the MGS-01.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: GearheadGrrrl on December 09, 2018, 08:41:14 AM
Collectors tend to be guys in their 60s buying up the cars they coveted but couldn't afford a half century ago when they were teenagers- Thus the baby boom generation is driving the price appreciation of 60s cars. So what motorcycles are the current baby boomers, millennials, coveting? Most of them see cars as an evil necessity at best, and the few who covet them seem to be into hot hatches like the Focus RS, Golf R, and Suburu WRX. Motorcycles aren't even on their radar...
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: blackcat on December 09, 2018, 08:50:48 AM
Maybe the MGS-01.

They already are, if you purchased one new for $24K they are now worth north of $50K.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: harrytief on December 09, 2018, 08:57:01 AM
Ghr
Exactly!
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: jas67 on December 09, 2018, 08:59:01 AM
I'll add some more to the list:

Ducati 900SS Final Edition
Ducati Supermono (already is)
Ducati Desmosedici
Ducati 1299 Superleggera
Ducati 848 Nicky Hayden Special Edition
Honda RC51 Nicky Hayden Special Edition
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: s1120 on December 09, 2018, 09:03:35 AM
Collectors tend to be guys in their 60s buying up the cars they coveted but couldn't afford a half century ago when they were teenagers- Thus the baby boom generation is driving the price appreciation of 60s cars. So what motorcycles are the current baby boomers, millennials, coveting? Most of them see cars as an evil necessity at best, and the few who covet them seem to be into hot hatches like the Focus RS, Golf R, and Suburu WRX. Motorcycles aren't even on their radar...

I think your post touches of a good point... People tend to want what they had, or wanted in their youth...  that car[or bike] that your friends cool brother had... What the guy down the street had.... what used to rip by your house when you were a 12yo standing in your driveway... 
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Tusayan on December 09, 2018, 09:47:10 AM
The mid 2000's Ducati Sport Classics, 1000GT, 1000 Sport, and esp. the Paul Smart 1000LE are all already collectable, just look at the prices.

It is possible some Buell models might become collectables as well.

I think the 'Sport Classics' have held their value because they are replicas of 1970s Ducatis that most buyers can no longer afford.  I don't see being a replica of a classic bike as a strong basis for long term classic status for these bikes themselves.

I agree about Buells, they have the making of being traded as a classic and it's too bad that they are gone.  At the time they were being made they were to me the most attractive new bikes available, but I was too busy buying and keeping older Italian bikes to get one. 

1990s Ducatis and Guzzi sport bikes remain the most promising bikes to buy now for long term value, IMO.  Some Japanese sport bikes (for example the last two strokes) fall in the same category.

Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: jas67 on December 09, 2018, 10:41:56 AM
Some Japanese sport bikes (for example the last two strokes) fall in the same category.

Then add the Aprilia RS125 and RS250.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: oilhed on December 09, 2018, 10:45:08 AM
I think design and rarity has something to do with it.  I sold my W650 with 15,000 miles on it for not a lot less than what I paid for it new.  It was a one of the first classic retro designs relanched with only 2000 brought into the states.  Prices on them have held up remarkable well for a 17-18 year old mid size Japanese standard.  It will be interesting to see what impact if any the W800 will have on that.  I do think some of the Buell's will be quite collectible and believe it or not, some of the new V7's as well- they are just too distinctive and still fairly uncommon. Of them,  I think the V7/50 stands a pretty good chance, then again I might be a bit biased:
(https://vgy.me/KmDaic.jpg)

Imagine if you still had both....They will probably be collectors!
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: huub on December 09, 2018, 11:15:26 AM
interesting question , in 10-5 years from now: in no particular order,
the 750 paso, ( because it stands out)
the first generation MV agusta F4, especially the special editions,
over here a ducati 999 is now worth as much as the 916, i can see the being more sought after. ( due to small numbers produced)
the ducati 888, but that is probably already a collectible by now
probably the first generation supercharged kawasaki's, but to be honest, i have no clue what the japanese factories turn out nowadays.

Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Sheepdog on December 09, 2018, 11:54:07 AM
Ducati Desmosedici...
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: F-22 on December 09, 2018, 12:44:35 PM
Out of non-exotic bikes, I bet the Hayabusa will get really expensive. The Honda VF1000F and the first VFR will probably get expensive too, they are kind of the first "modern" sportbikes. The original Suzuki GSXR too, they're really iconic (and the RG Gamma no doubt, they're already crazy expensive). Possibly even the Hawk GT.

From the 90's, I'd say few bikes are as iconic as a Ducati Monster. If they sold them today, they'd still be very appealing even to customers who do not look for "retro" bikes. No doubt the 916 and other "exotic" models too, they were always expensive...


Hard to say for more modern bikes. I think the old BMW K line is slowly gaining a bit on price too, with all the recent BMW cafe racer modification craze. Oilhead prices will likely not go up for a long time, they're odd bikes. Early 2000's Japanese bikes were kind of meh, it'll take a long time before an SV650 starts gaining value. The Aprilia RS250 is a safe bet, but they're already expensive. I imagine the V7 Guzzis will always hold their value rather well (as well as most other models, I mean even the T5 is somewhat expensive and they're really not pretty). The new Triumph bikes will perhaps start gaining some value. And Harley prices are always pretty stable, a 20 year old Sportster and a 10 year old one cost about the same if both are in good condition...
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Aaron D. on December 09, 2018, 04:53:11 PM
Styling is subjective, but I'd generally agree with you that it also contributed.

I'll add that I think the return and then leaps forward in performance probably means we are seeing future classic cars again, but we're too close to "see" it.

Either way the comparison still doesn't hold.

The classic car market sees 1974 as the last "great" year, as after that styling was no longer entirely determined by the stylist or manufacturer. Government regulations required changes even beyond obvious "Federal" bumpers.

Still, modern cars are better than ever.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Kev m on December 09, 2018, 05:03:31 PM
The classic car market sees 1974 as the last "great" year, as after that styling was no longer entirely determined by the stylist or manufacturer. Government regulations required changes even beyond obvious "Federal" bumpers.

Still, modern cars are better than ever.

Well you said it, they're better than ever and today the classic market sees one thing, it's almost certain it won't see that forever.

Today's classic purchasers will die off and the cars that are classics today will be the rare antiques of tomorrow.

Something from today will be classic tomorrow. Of course many on this thread (perhaps myself included) won't be around to see it.

No matter, I'll enjoy what I like now...
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Clifton on December 09, 2018, 05:50:57 PM
Not a sexy pick but I'm thinking the last of the Japanese big bore, air cooled, carbureted, singles, are about to disappear so pick up a new DR or XR 650.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: GearheadGrrrl on December 09, 2018, 06:09:08 PM
Rarity counts for a lot too- other than rare models like the R90S and R80GS, BMW airheads have been selling for $2-3k for years... BMW only made a couple hundred thousand of them. Early K bikes seem to actually be declining in value, given that many owners are retiring from riding or trading up. And Buells? They only made over 100,000 of them.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Antietam Classic Cycle on December 09, 2018, 06:54:04 PM
There's a good chance this could be a future classic:

(https://content.kawasaki.com/Content/Uploads/Products/7801/Colors/5k13fd5m.nv0.png)
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: pyoungbl on December 09, 2018, 08:03:59 PM
This speculation is based on the thought that the folks with disposable cash in 20-30 years are similar to the same people now.  I grew up in an age when cars and motorcycles were cool.  That translates now into an urge to pay for neat cars or motorcycles from the past.  These are things I admired but never owned, or owned once and want to recreate that memory.  In the future we may find that old cars and motorcycles are just not that interesting for the people who have the money to pay a premium for them.  Consider sewing machines.  There are lots of well made and interesting examples going to the dump.  The same applies to pianos (try selling a piano!).  My point is that we may well be at the tipping point for internal combustion vehicles and motorcycles in particular.  That 900SS might be hot right now but in a decade, not so much.  With that said, my 2013 red and white V7 is one beautiful classic. 
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Tusayan on December 10, 2018, 09:15:41 AM
I agree that future generations won't be as interested.  One reason for that IMHO is that the type and years of vehicles that are considered classic isn't going to change that much and those vehicles wil not be as interesting to people who didn't know them when they were new.  I think classic vehicles will mostly remain those made in the 20th centrury, and while they will remain an interesting hobby to collectors as time goes on, the mass appeal will diminish.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: hannibal smith on December 10, 2018, 11:42:38 AM
The 2TB V7 series (like a 2009) will be desirable within a decade. It's simplicity, ease of operation, and it's mild manners  will have an appeal. I have one now, and after yesterday's ride, it really reminded me once again that it was old fashioned the day it was made!

It won't necessarily go up in value, but it will level off, inflation etc. not withstanding. In the scheme of things it is a rare bike to begin with.  It is just plain charming, and I get compliments at the pump on a regular basis.

 
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: speedyg on December 10, 2018, 12:06:59 PM

Just a couple to consider:

For best value:
1990's CBR900RR (changed the Sport bike scene) , Ducati Monster (saved Ducati)
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: reidy on December 10, 2018, 07:09:26 PM
I went for a ride yesterday and stopped at a Bakery for a coffee, something I don't normally do. Whilst I was enjoy my coffee and slice a group of 12 riders pulled in. In this group there were 2 1970's Norton's a R90S BMW and a Ducati  Scrambler plus 8 other modern looking bikes. What I took away from this is that the Norton's and BMW captured my attention and I noticed the Scrambler as I walked past all of the bikes on the way out stopping to look at only those 4 and could not tell you anything about the rest. 

I will have to find someone in there mid to late 20's to tell me which bikes stop them in there tracks and then I guess I will have an answer as to what the future classics are.

Steve
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Devildog on December 11, 2018, 04:36:03 PM
My future classic (I hope). No. 15 of 800.
(https://i.ibb.co/HPyBJmQ/image.jpg) (https://ibb.co/HPyBJmQ)
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: blackbuell on December 11, 2018, 04:46:41 PM
I think the original Eddie Lawson replica KAW or perhaps the Z1R could be worth some $ in the not-too-distant future. I certainly wish I hadn't sold my old tube-frame Buell S3; they might become classics some day.

Jon
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: hannibal smith on December 11, 2018, 06:13:58 PM
Has to have had "something" back in the day for the most part (there are exceptions, like rarity) but also must have intrinsic appeal looks wise. It has to have multiple points, pure performance sans looks, or looks but gutless is a hard sell.

I had a 1979 Lotus Esprit, although gorgeous, lacked the power to peel a grape. One major flaw. A damning flaw. It will never command a premium.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Lumpy Idle on December 11, 2018, 06:44:35 PM
...
Now is the time to buy Italian sport bikes of the 90s.

yeah, i agree with those that mention the daytona's and the sporti's and not merely because i have one. As long as Medicandy keeps buying them they continue to become scarce (insert chortle emoji of your choice here.)  I suspect that there will come a point for the sporti's that their persistent incremental price rises will take a sudden leap into something approaching the zone that the daytona's now inhabit.  There aren't very many of them, they are sexy as hell and they will only become more collectible.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Kristian on December 11, 2018, 07:02:18 PM
The classic car era extends only through the early 70s then ends abruptly due to regulations from that time and their impact on low volume models and producers.  The same thing is happening with motorcycles, delayed to maybe pre model year 2000. 

Right idea but I think incorrect analogy. First, lots of 70s, 80s, 90s cars are collectible, to wit: Maserati Boras, Meraks, Khamsins; Lamborghini Countach, Espada; Ferrari Berlinetta Boxer, 288GTO, Testarossa, F40; Porsche 959, 911 Turbos through the 993 series, most air cooled 911s, and more; Audi Quattro; Aston Martin V8 Vantage and regular V8's; etc. and so on. You are correct that most of the smalltime coach built manufacturers took a heavy hit in the early 70s, like Iso Grifo, Jensen, Alvis, and tiny producers like that.

Tiny motorcycle manufacturers like Bimota (still here), Harris, Rickman, Moto Martin, and others, were killed off by the major motorcycle manufacturers producing motorcycles that did all the things the coach built bikes did performance and handling as well as or better than the bikes from the small makers, but with much better reliability and build quality. Makers like Bimota, Harris, and Moto Martin during the 1970s took terrific Japanese engines out of their ill handling frames and shoved them into great handling chassis, providing the only products available for the discerning bloke who wanted a true sports bike on the street.

But, the writing on the wall was written during the 1980s by the Kawasaki GPz900R, Yamaha FZRs, Honda Interceptors, and most notably by the Suzuki GSX-Rs and the 8V Ducatis. By 1988 or so, there was no reason to buy a Bimota or Moto Martin, especially as you had to suffer with dodgy tuning, inferior build quality, and poor part support.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: bad Chad on December 11, 2018, 07:10:47 PM
All depends on what is in demand.   I think it would be super cool to have a MZ 1000s, but I suspect ill be  a subset of a subset a thus it will be a very little actual value on the open market.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Tusayan on December 11, 2018, 11:00:24 PM
Right idea but I think incorrect analogy. First, lots of 70s, 80s, 90s cars are collectible, to wit: Maserati Boras, Meraks, Khamsins; Lamborghini Countach, Espada; Ferrari Berlinetta Boxer, 288GTO, Testarossa, F40; Porsche 959, 911 Turbos through the 993 series, most air cooled 911s, and more; Audi Quattro; Aston Martin V8 Vantage and regular V8's; etc. and so on. You are correct that most of the smalltime coach built manufacturers took a heavy hit in the early 70s, like Iso Grifo, Jensen, Alvis, and tiny producers like that.

Tiny motorcycle manufacturers like Bimota (still here), Harris, Rickman, Moto Martin, and others, were killed off by the major motorcycle manufacturers producing motorcycles that did all the things the coach built bikes did performance and handling as well as or better than the bikes from the small makers, but with much better reliability and build quality. Makers like Bimota, Harris, and Moto Martin during the 1970s took terrific Japanese engines out of their ill handling frames and shoved them into great handling chassis, providing the only products available for the discerning bloke who wanted a true sports bike on the street.

But, the writing on the wall was written during the 1980s by the Kawasaki GPz900R, Yamaha FZRs, Honda Interceptors, and most notably by the Suzuki GSX-Rs and the 8V Ducatis. By 1988 or so, there was no reason to buy a Bimota or Moto Martin, especially as you had to suffer with dodgy tuning, inferior build quality, and poor part support.

Most of the cars you mention were initially designed pre-1972 or thereabouts (which is my rough dividing line for cars) and while there will always be a tiny counter example to every wider trend, I think that there is very little automotive made in the last half a lifetime that will attract collectors years for now.  There will probably be a few but the trend is done, car collecting IMHO will focus on earlier cars and with nearly fixed supply and increasing wealthy population worldwide prices of $100K will remain the norm. I simply don't believe that future generations when reaching their 50s or whatever will be collecting the cars of their 21st century youth. A few of them will continue collecting pre-1972 American or less regulated pre-1980 European cars (or whatever year you may think is appropriate) but regardless of the year you might pick the mass market has moved on from cars. The closest manufacturers can achieve is building modern versions of classic cars: recycled Dodge Challenger with 'Hemi', Mustang etc.   Porsche still makes a 911, replaying the same old theme.  Lamborghinis still look like 1970s Lamborghinis, VW now rehashing what was done 40 years ago.  It makes money but none of it makes a memorable impact.

Bikes are the same, just delayed a few model years.  My judgement for bikes is that the Italian motorcycle renaissance of the 90s in which they rose from the dead to successfully combat Japanese sport bikes is the last classic era for bikes.  The answer to the question of which bikes stop average 20-somethings in their tracks today is none of them.  As with cars retro bikes are the closest to excitement for 20-somethings in 2018, but I think retro won't have lasting appeal to collectors.

We who have loved the evolution and excitement of new bikes for years would love for younger people and high regulated 21st century bikes to continue our trend but I think reality is laughing at us, the mass trend has moved on.  On the other hand, 90s Italian bikes are inexpensive and the last hurrah, buy them now.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: hannibal smith on December 12, 2018, 10:17:07 AM
I collect motorcycles, and so do my friends. Here in Southern California, the 80's and 90's Japanese bikes are getting much more expensive. Currently I am restoring a Kawasaki 1984 900R Gpz mill for a buddy that has a sizeable collection to include Mv and vintage Ducatis.

He is more excited about this bike than his Ducati Laguna Seca.

I am currently looking for a 1989-1994 Kawasaki ZX-7 to add to my stable.

Anyway, bikes have always been fast and exciting, and were never neutered. Any cool bike of it's era is destined to become a classic. Even today's bikes. 
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Lannis on December 12, 2018, 10:22:29 AM
The same skills and intuition that would allow one to predict which motorcycles would be "classics" in the future would also allow one to predict what companies have share prices that are going to triple or quadruple in the next few years.

Lemme know if you figure out the secret ... !!!

Lannis

We're doing a good job of analyzing the past and figuring out which bikes back then have become expensive "classics" now, and WHY ... but nobody back then knew which ones they would be.

Similarly, doing the analysis about the past does nothing for us in predicting WHICH bikes to buy cheap now and be expensive later, like someone buying a Vincent for $2500 in the 70s, parking it, maintaining it, and polishing it, and having a bike worth $70,000 NOW.

If you think about it, nobody really predicts anything .... and unless I buy a Bike X and put it in the shop for my kids to retire on, I can't predict anything either.

Lannis
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: hannibal smith on December 12, 2018, 11:00:06 AM
We're doing a good job of analyzing the past and figuring out which bikes back then have become expensive "classics" now, and WHY ... but nobody back then knew which ones they would be.

I disagree. Motorcycles are fairly "new" to this world, and there wasn't any real precedent to future value. Unlike automobiles that take up space etc. motorbikes are way easier to stash/store and commonly avoid the wrecker. Granted, we have all seen images of a rusty pile of vintage bikes, but that pile invariably will not contain the exclusive of their respective eras. People don't throw away Harleys for instance.

People know what is cool. Nobody threw away an intact Vincent. Sure, they couldn't predict to what degree the value would rise, but they knew it was worth something. If you are referring to pure speculation as to a percentage of future "value", then I agree. But every cool bike of all eras will achieve a classic status eventually.

I will say that armed with today's info, we can predict pretty well what bikes are worth grabbing now. Any Japanese "speed" bike from the 80's is worth getting if the price and condition are right. I don't buy to sell, I am a collector, but I want an example for a steal if I can help it. They are only getting more expensive.

 
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Lannis on December 12, 2018, 11:20:54 AM
People don't throw away Harleys for instance.

That's a perfect example.   Back when I were a lad and considering building a "chopper", around 1970 - 72, various police departments (LAPD, CHP, DC Police among others) auctioned off their HD Big Twins when they had reached the end of their economical service life with the police.

NOBODY wanted them.   You could go to one of these auctions with $100 to $250 with a battery and a can of gas, and ride out of it on a Hydra-Glide Harley.   People loaded them onto trucks for pennies a pound.   

And I disagree that no one threw away an intact Vincent.   People chopped them up and used the engines for dragsters and sidecar racers all the time.  I remember them doing it, at the time.   They had no idea at all that the things would be worth big bucks someday, just like we have no idea at all that a 1993 Sportster that sells for $2000 today MIGHT be $20,000 in a few years.   Sounds stupid?   It sounded stupid to people back then that ANY old panhead Harley, stock and running, would be worth three months of anyone's pay today.

I understand that you disagree and I hear your opinion, but I stand firmly by mine ... even more.

Lannis
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: hannibal smith on December 12, 2018, 02:21:09 PM
That we are discussing this means that we are now fully aware of future potential. It's only limited to what degree.

One of my collector buddies never sold his minty Norton or his Sci-Fi purple Triumph that he purchased new way back when. He knew then they were worth holding on to............the day he bought them!

The 1984 Gpz 900R we are working on together was purchased by him brand new and never sold because he knew it was going to be special one day.

I have only sold one motorcycle in my lifetime, and I am now on the quest to get another (1994 Kawasaki ZX7).

ETA- I agree that people didn't consider potential  back then, but there is no excuse now. We have known this for many years.

I guarantee that a 2018 bike that is badass will be a classic in the future.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Dilliw on December 12, 2018, 03:17:21 PM
Orange XR1200
SV1000s (first gen)

My Tenni Green SE of course!  :evil:
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: hannibal smith on December 12, 2018, 03:28:53 PM
Orange XR1200
SV1000s (first gen)

My Tenni Green SE of course!  :evil:

Absolutely! Cool then, cool now, cool forever.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Aaron D. on December 12, 2018, 03:32:43 PM
There was a tie when "collectible" cars were going up in price so fast, a group of investors bought a 300SL and planned to store it for a period. There would be a payout at liquidation.

Then the big crash came. Wonder what happened next? Did they hold through the next big thing? And the next crash?

Bah-we can't tell. Frankly the glow of the current favorites strikes me a bit like stolen valor. Guys who bought Vincents, or V7 Sports, had a very different view of the bikes and had experiences that current buyers can only wish they had.

Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: hannibal smith on December 12, 2018, 03:47:22 PM
There was a tie when "collectible" cars were going up in price so fast, a group of investors bought a 300SL and planned to store it for a period. There would be a payout at liquidation.

Then the big crash came. Wonder what happened next? Did they hold through the next big thing? And the next crash?

Bah-we can't tell. Frankly the glow of the current favorites strikes me a bit like stolen valor. Guys who bought Vincents, or V7 Sports, had a very different view of the bikes and had experiences that current buyers can only wish they had.

Excellent point. Not only a different view of the bikes and experiences, but of the then owners too.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: LowRyter on December 12, 2018, 05:00:34 PM
1990 Honda RC30 comes to mind

(https://www.bennetts.co.uk/bikesocial/classic-bikesocial/buying-advice/honda-rc30-vfr750r-buyers-guide-advice%20//media/default-website/2018/june/rc30-buyers-guide/honda-rc30-vfr750r-buyers-guide-bikesocial01.ashx)


appreciate the Greenie sentiment FG

(https://g3.img-dpreview.com/6701EE029CD340DCAE2B7F2CD8E613A1.jpg)
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Perazzimx14 on December 12, 2018, 06:58:26 PM
Wonder why either of these two amazing specimens haven't been mentioned yet?

(https://i.ibb.co/hHSZK1h/Ducati.jpg) (https://ibb.co/hHSZK1h)

(https://i.ibb.co/dWpfF50/BMW.png) (https://ibb.co/dWpfF50)
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Huzo on December 12, 2018, 07:13:44 PM
Wonder why either of these two amazing specimens haven't been mentioned yet?

(https://i.ibb.co/hHSZK1h/Ducati.jpg) (https://ibb.co/hHSZK1h)

(https://i.ibb.co/dWpfF50/BMW.png) (https://ibb.co/dWpfF50)
Because one of them is a steaming pile of pus...
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: poorBob on December 13, 2018, 07:59:29 AM
When Motus went belly up, the dealer who sold me mine tried to convince me "in 40 years it will be like a Vincent Black Shadow!"

I hope he's right but I have my doubts. There will be very few gearheads around in 40 years. I know I won't be.

A pristine 40 year old iPhone will sell for a million bucks. Some femsickle will have it in a glass case and throw parties to show it off to zir's friends.

When I offered to put him on a dirt bike, my nephew said "No, they're too dangerous." He didn't even look up from his video game.

Generational ennui.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Turin on December 13, 2018, 10:13:42 AM
A few of the bikes mentioned are already collectable. What I've noticed a few trends with Japanese sportbikes. Race homologation bikes like the RC30, OW01, ZX7RR already command a premium.  First model years of significant bikes is another factor. A 1999 Hayabusa is more sought after than a 2000. Color also matters. A white, blue and red 1993 CBR 900RR is more sought after than the black, grey and red version of the same year.
Popular Japanese sportbikes in excellent original condition are commanding high prices, many of them were considered disposable and abused. Try finding a nice FZR 400 or 600.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: MedicAndy on December 13, 2018, 12:13:22 PM
I talked to a gentleman from England earlier this year who bought a 1979 Yamaha XT500 from the US and had it shipped to his home in England. I asked him on why in the world he would buy a XT500 from the US and then had to pay shipping and import fees, and he stated that the Yamaha XT500's available in Europe were on average 3X the cost of a US bike, and most European models were actually used, and were therefor high milage bikes and most were in need of a full restoration. I also didn't realize that the XT500 has almost cult-like followers. I paid $2.7k for my 4.2k miles 1979 XT500 about five years ago, and even I had to look long and hard to find one of those thumpers in good condition here in the US.

I think another bike that I bought a little over two years ago, which is my 7k miles 1996 GSXR1100W is destined to become a future highly sought after collectable. Most of the GSXR-1100's have been lost due to the bikes being wrecked or the bikes / engines were used as race / drag bikes. I don't mind buying a bike sight unseen, and I usually act pretty fast when I see a bike come up for sale. I paid $2.2k for this bike, which was a great deal since the bike came with lots of new stuff installed and some nice performance upgrades like a $2k set of Keihin 41mm FCR's.

I believe that now is still a great time to buy a older childhood dream bike, but I also think that "Special" bikes, like the XT500, which was the true first adventure bike before the term "Adventure Bike" was used, or the GSXR's, who where just incredible street legal racing bikes are increasing in value quickly. I also noticed that I get more and more people either contacting me online or asking me in person if any of my bikes were for sale when they see any of my bikes in public. I absolutely love my Moto Guzzi 1100's, but I wish that the Italians would have outsourced the engine / drivetrain of those bikes to the Japanese engineers who developed my GSXR! I'm now looking to buy me a low milage Honda CBR Blackbird, another GSXR1100 (in blue / white), and a 80's GSXR 750. (And yes, I keep both eyes open for any MG 1100 Sport's that come up for sale)  :boozing:

My GSXR, being almost 23 years old by now, is in almost pristine condition. I'm glad that this bike was sitting for 20 years in storage!

(https://i.ibb.co/zbJsMYh/fullsizeoutput-2132d.jpg) (https://ibb.co/zbJsMYh)



(https://i.ibb.co/Jrn3m0q/IMG-2352.jpg) (https://ibb.co/Jrn3m0q)


This was the eBay auction for the GSXR I bought from a guy out of Baltimore.

(https://i.ibb.co/qjyyNHZ/fullsizeoutput-1fc16.jpg) (https://ibb.co/qjyyNHZ)


This 1996 GSXR auction ended with that bike being sold for $7k, which was a couple of month after I bought my bike.

(https://i.ibb.co/m5nzBCp/fullsizeoutput-1fc21.jpg) (https://ibb.co/m5nzBCp)


And this is my 1979 XT500. I did spend about $2k on her cosmetic restoration, which also included $500.00 for a Mikuni racing carb.

(https://i.ibb.co/nDH4Cb3/fullsizeoutput-21134.jpg) (https://ibb.co/nDH4Cb3)



(https://i.ibb.co/HNf4yHL/IMG-3179.jpg) (https://ibb.co/HNf4yHL)
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Turin on December 13, 2018, 11:19:13 PM
Congrats on finding a nice one without a rear fender eliminator and cheesey turn signals. I'm a big fan of 90's hyper sport bikes like the GSXR1100, CBR1000F etc. A big guy like me does not fit on a Ducati F1 or a Bimota DB.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: AH Fan on December 14, 2018, 03:27:58 AM
When Motus went belly up, the dealer who sold me mine tried to convince me "in 40 years it will be like a Vincent Black Shadow!"

I hope he's right but I have my doubts. There will be very few gearheads around in 40 years. I know I won't be.

A pristine 40 year old iPhone will sell for a million bucks. Some femsickle will have it in a glass case and throw parties to show it off to zir's friends.

When I offered to put him on a dirt bike, my nephew said "No, they're too dangerous." He didn't even look up from his video game.

Generational ennui.




Now that's funny.... :grin:
And alarmingly .. possibly true    :sad:
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: jas67 on December 14, 2018, 08:35:13 AM
I talked to a gentleman from England earlier this year who bought a 1979 Yamaha XT500 from the US and had it shipped to his home in England. I asked him on why in the world he would buy a XT500 from the US and then had to pay shipping and import fees, and he stated that the Yamaha XT500's available in Europe were on average 3X the cost of a US bike, and most European models were actually used, and were therefor high milage bikes and most were in need of a full restoration.

Over the last few years, I have sold a few low-miles refreshed/preserved Hondas, and five project Honda 305 Superhawks (ranging from 1965-1967) to Dave Silver Spares, who shipped them all to the UK, where they were promptly listed for sale for 2-3X what they paid me for them.     The price they paid me was fair market value in the US too.
The last batch was the five 305's, and a very nice '73 CB350 Four.    All but the two worse condition 305's sold within a couple months, those last two are still listed on their UK site.   I forget the exact numbers, but, even with those two unsold, they've gotten about 2.5X out of them vs. what I paid.
They, of course, had to pay shipping, but, they load them up by the container load, so, that cost is only a few hundred$$ per bike.

I'm working on three bikes over this winter (another very nice CB350 Four, a CB160 and CL175 sloper).    When they're ready for sale,  I will likely just call the David Silver Spares buyer before I even bother to list on CL or eBay.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Lannis on December 14, 2018, 10:08:18 AM
When Motus went belly up, the dealer who sold me mine tried to convince me "in 40 years it will be like a Vincent Black Shadow!"

I hope he's right but I have my doubts. There will be very few gearheads around in 40 years. I know I won't be.

......

When I offered to put him on a dirt bike, my nephew said "No, they're too dangerous." He didn't even look up from his video game.

Generational ennui.

As I've said before, each generation (including ours) tends to think of itself as the last generation that are real men and that last that will do anything that's worth a toot.

I'm sure that folks thought that "We're the last ones that will know how to load a gun properly with powder and shot and flints and wadding" and so there would be no more firearms enthusiasts.   

Or that "This next generation won't know anything about how to feed and curry and doctor and ride a horse, so they'll just stay home and travel is at an end" and no one would take trips any more.

Besides that, being in "a generation" is just a made-up thing, based on our own view of the world from where we sit.   In fact, there's an absolute continuum of people of all ages, most of whom don't "fit" into one category or another.

Come to the Potomac Riders show January 27th in York PA.  There'll be hundreds if not thousands of young people among us old silverbacks, looking over old dirtbike parts boxes and carcasses and oohing and aahing over Bultacos and BSAs .... Nobody lying on sofas with an Xbox there!

Lannis
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: MedicAndy on December 14, 2018, 10:09:05 AM
Over the last few years, I have sold a few low-miles refreshed/preserved Hondas, and five project Honda 305 Superhawks (ranging from 1965-1967) to Dave Silver Spares, who shipped them all to the UK, where they were promptly listed for sale for 2-3X what they paid me for them.     The price they paid me was fair market value in the US too.

I was born in Germany and moved to the US back in 1984. My brother (in Germany) keeps on telling me jokingly to buy him a Harley over here in the US and send it to him as a Christmas gift, since like you already stated, the bikes here in the US are so much cheaper to buy then in Europe. I also know that many people in Europe ride their bikes a lot, versus many people like me here in the US, who work a lot and thereby get very little ride time in. This difference results in a lot of older US bikes with very low milage and great condition versus European high milage used bikes. Another problem for instance is the personal income tax in Germany, which is for 2018 is 47.5% (the all time high was at 57% in 1996), and the sales tax is now at 19%. I can see on why prices, especially new items like motorcycle are getting out of reach for many riders over there. I would love to go into a "Motorcycle Export, and then selling them in Europe" business, if I would know of someone that I could trust to start a business with.   

Andy
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Lannis on December 14, 2018, 10:18:10 AM
I was born in Germany and moved to the US back in 1984. My brother (in Germany) keeps on telling me jokingly to buy him a Harley over here in the US and send it to him as a Christmas gift, since like you already stated, the bikes here in the US are so much cheaper to buy then in Europe.
Andy

But can you do that?   It doesn't work the other way.   They have all sorts of neat cars and bikes in Europe that were never sold in the USA, and people would love to get their hands on one.   But even if the money's no problem, the EPA and DOT crash requirements are.

You CAN'T import a vehicle less than 25 years old from Europe to the USA and get it legally licensed to drive on US highways.   You can't get Customs approval to even get it into a port, and even if you imported one to Canada and drove it across the border on a woods road somewhere, the VIN number wouldn't scan as a US-approved model for emissions and crash-testing.

Do European countries have the same rules about imports from the USA?

Lannis
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: huub on December 14, 2018, 02:23:16 PM
that is a neat trick to keep your local car producers in business.
over here ( netherlands) i can import whatever i want , it just takes time ( and money) to get it approved for the road.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: blackcat on December 14, 2018, 03:21:04 PM
"Come to the Potomac Riders show January 27th in York PA.  There'll be hundreds if not thousands of young people among us old silverbacks, looking over old dirtbike parts boxes and carcasses and oohing and aahing over Bultacos and BSAs .... Nobody lying on sofas with an Xbox there!"

Lanes

Yeah, there are lot's of young people who are interested in old bikes and cars and I'm sure that in our youth there were plenty of people who were not that interested in cars and bikes.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Tusayan on December 14, 2018, 03:38:32 PM
Do European countries have the same Do European countries have the same rules about imports from the USA?

Lannis

Its probably not as difficult for in terms of regulations (Europe had no uniform vehicle regulations until recently, and there are still national differences between small countries, making flexibility necessary) But it is much more costly - for example you would pay roughly 20% VAT plus an my applicable duty on any import from outside the EU.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Lannis on December 14, 2018, 04:03:03 PM
Its probably not as difficult for in terms of regulations (Europe had no uniform vehicle regulations until recently, and there are still national differences between small countries, making flexibility necessary) But it is much more costly - for example you would pay roughly 20% VAT plus an my applicable duty on any import from outside the EU.

A lot of people in the US would consider 20% tax plus import duties plus shipping an easily-justifiable cost to get some super-neat Euro-car into the US.  But it's not just difficult, it's impossible, unless you spend the millions necessary to meet USA crash and emissions rules for that model of car, which is the reason they're not imported by the manufacturer in the first place ...

Lannis
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: oilhed on December 15, 2018, 07:21:07 AM
Wonder why either of these two amazing specimens haven't been mentioned yet?

(https://i.ibb.co/hHSZK1h/Ducati.jpg) (https://ibb.co/hHSZK1h)

(https://i.ibb.co/dWpfF50/BMW.png) (https://ibb.co/dWpfF50)

Don't forget the little Guzzi cruiser, too.  Actually I think they will be collectors, not worth a bank but unique.
Just like that ugly Suzuki Madura, it's kinda cool now.  Anything that wasn't sold in volume gets cool over time.
My opinion is it's gotta be bone stock or at least keeps the parts to make it stock again.  No sawing or drilling!
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: weevee on December 15, 2018, 10:17:07 AM
Try finding a nice FZR 400..

I have a minter - and it's for sale (UK).  Low miles, runs like new, and it still has its tools under the seat!  But yes, the FZR is the hardest 400 to find in this condition.  Most were thrashed around race circuits and thrown away.  Interestingly, despite the current desirability/price-appreciation of the 400 Hondas (CBR/VFR etc), the FZR was actually more successful than any other 400 on the Isle of Man - and everywhere else, for that matter.  In competition, it was always the one to beat.

(https://i.postimg.cc/G98dvwz2/fzr-recent.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/G98dvwz2) (https://i.postimg.cc/0z9TWLG7/FZR-underseat.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/0z9TWLG7) (https://i.postimg.cc/K1QddJQw/FZR-underseat2.jpg) (https://postimg.cc/K1QddJQw)   
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Turin on December 15, 2018, 10:25:51 AM
You may want to post it on https://raresportbikesforsale.com/ (https://raresportbikesforsale.com/). It may catch the eye of a collector there.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: jas67 on December 15, 2018, 06:13:59 PM
Don't forget the little Guzzi cruiser, too.  Actually I think they will be collectors, not worth a bank but unique.
Just like that ugly Suzuki Madura, it's kinda cool now.  Anything that wasn't sold in volume gets cool over time.
My opinion is it's gotta be bone stock or at least keeps the parts to make it stock again.  No sawing or drilling!

Madura?
(http://www.suzukicycles.org/photos/Madura/Madura-brochures/1986_USA/1986_madura_b3_831.jpg)

Kinda cool now?    NOPE!    Sorry, all those little fuel-tank pointed up at a 45 degree angle, tall spindly fork cruisers were ugly, no... make that UGLY!     I'm not a cruiser guy, but, long and low is the look for a cruiser.   Harley makes a proper looking cruiser.   I think the current Softail Deluxe has the right proportions.
(https://www.harley-davidson.com/content/dam/h-d/images/motorcycles/my18/softail/deluxe/details/dom/softail-deluxe.jpg?impolicy=myresize&rw=975)

The bottom of the fuel tank should be horizontal or close to it, and the top of the tank can't be 45 degrees, the top slope should be lower, like the Harley.  They beefy looking fork covers, have a long low look (as compared to the Madura).    Even the metric cruisers now follow this same aethstetic:

 (https://cdp.azureedge.net/products/USA/SU/2018/MC/CRUISER/BOULEVARD_C50/50/METALLIC_OORT_GRAY/2000000006.jpg)
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: oilhed on December 15, 2018, 09:53:41 PM
Madura?
(http://www.suzukicycles.org/photos/Madura/Madura-brochures/1986_USA/1986_madura_b3_831.jpg)
Kinda cool now?    NOPE!    Sorry, all those little fuel-tank pointed up at a 45 degree angle, tall spindly fork cruisers were ugly, no... make that UGLY!   

I don't know, maybe it's just me but I liked them then and think they're kinda cool now.  I even bought a brand new Suzuki GS450L for $1,400 in 1985!
(http://bikes-media3.bestcarmag.com/sites/default/files/suzuki/gs-450-l/suzuki-gs-450-l-103416-543.jpg)
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: jas67 on December 16, 2018, 08:10:05 AM
I don't know, maybe it's just me but I liked them then and think they're kinda cool now.  I even bought a brand new Suzuki GS450L for $1,400 in 1985!

 :boozing:

I get it.  My statements above are absolutely, MY tastes.   But, hey, that's why there are lots of different styles of bikes (and most everything else for that matter).    If they were all the same, the world would be a boring place.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: sdcr on December 16, 2018, 10:37:43 AM
Absolutely agree. Reminds me of 1979, when I bought my first new bike, a 78 yamaha SR 500 from Cycle Villa in hatfield pa. The owner complained endlessly that nobody wanted to buy these SR's. He had three or 4 leftovers, and didn't know where to put the 1979 models. Fortunately for me, I liked them, and wanted one. They gave me an exceptional deal.

:boozing:

I get it.  My statements above are absolutely, MY tastes.   But, hey, that's why there are lots of different styles of bikes (and most everything else for that matter).    If they were all the same, the world would utile agreebe a boring place.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Turin on December 17, 2018, 08:25:43 PM
I don't think the Madura stands a chance as a collectable . It was completely overshadowed by the other 3 Japanese power cruisers from that era. ( V65 Magna, ZL1000 Eliminator, and of course the V-Max )
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: poorBob on December 18, 2018, 07:36:53 AM
As I've said before, each generation (including ours) tends to think of itself as the last generation that are real men and that last that will do anything that's worth a toot.

Come to the Potomac Riders show January 27th in York PA.  There'll be hundreds if not thousands of young people among us old silverbacks, looking over old dirtbike parts boxes and carcasses and oohing and aahing over Bultacos and BSAs .... Nobody lying on sofas with an Xbox there!

Lannis

Thanks for the invite, Lannis. I probably can't make it but it would do me good to get out of the office environment in which I'm presently toiling. Being surrounded by 30 year old gender-neutrals who can type 200 wpm with their thumbs and call their moms when they get a flat tire in their electric car is affecting my attitude. I'm starting to sound bitter. Going to a jumble such as the one you mentioned would do me a lot of good..if I could only get some time off work. 
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: ohiorider on December 18, 2018, 10:36:32 AM
Here's yer post-2000 collectible.


(https://i.ibb.co/QvYk0CZ/IMG-1428.jpg) (https://ibb.co/QvYk0CZ)
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Kev m on December 18, 2018, 10:50:03 AM
Thanks for the invite, Lannis. I probably can't make it but it would do me good to get out of the office environment in which I'm presently toiling. Being surrounded by 30 year old gender-neutrals who can type 200 wpm with their thumbs and call their moms when they get a flat tire in their electric car is affecting my attitude.

Not for nothing, but why would we assume those demographics would be a hot-bed of gearheads?

Though you might find one there, wouldn't you more likely find more in an engineering environment or technical trades?

I know there are exceptions, and you may find a motorcycle enthusiast in any profession, but I would certainly expect fewer in some than others, a lot fewer in some.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: poorBob on December 18, 2018, 01:18:27 PM
Not for nothing, but why would we assume those demographics would be a hot-bed of gearheads?

Though you might find one there, wouldn't you more likely find more in an engineering environment or technical trades?

I know there are exceptions, and you may find a motorcycle enthusiast in any profession, but I would certainly expect fewer in some than others, a lot fewer in some.

Software development is a technical trade and is the environment in which I spend an inordinate amount of time. My current title is automation engineer. So, here's me, the technical engineer, surrounded by the demographic I described. I would expect to find more riders in a mechanical engineering sort of workplace. I never assumed IT would be a hotbed of gearheads but I will never be comfortable in an environment where most of the people can't wait for driverless cars to become predominant so they can watch videos all the way to work. Those people will definitely not be the market for future classic motorcycles. That's all I'm saying.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: TimmyTheHog on December 18, 2018, 07:51:38 PM
who knows?

Maybe 10 years from now where the EV rules are kicking in hard, ALL the ICM bikes will be a valuable commodity?  :popcorn: :boozing:
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Kev m on December 18, 2018, 07:57:51 PM
Software development is a technical trade and is the environment in which I spend an inordinate amount of time. My current title is automation engineer. So, here's me, the technical engineer, surrounded by the demographic I described. I would expect to find more riders in a mechanical engineering sort of workplace. I never assumed IT would be a hotbed of gearheads but I will never be comfortable in an environment where most of the people can't wait for driverless cars to become predominant so they can watch videos all the way to work. Those people will definitely not be the market for future classic motorcycles. That's all I'm saying.

No, by and large most software development types I've known from college through today are mostly a different demographic by far, especially these days. I mean these days they are the poster children for millennials and their econtent world. That's so far removed from the gear head demo it's ridiculous.

Sure Jay is an EE, but I can't think of a single other EE or a software guy from our fraternity who was a gear head even back then.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Bulldog9 on December 18, 2018, 08:01:34 PM
Well, I've always hoped my Yamaha XS series would become classics, and had a stash of XS1100's but sold all but one 1100 (my first real street bike in 84) and a 750 when they just never appreciated..... Same with several other vehicles, even limited models like the 912E. I LOVE all of them, but collectors they are not.

I'd love for the 4V Griso (IMO the quintessential Griso and almost perfect) and maybe the Stornello, but the Norge is and will be a 'dime a dozen' bike...... Oh well, should have bought a Lemans in 84....... I'd still have it, it would still be pristine like my XS11, and would be worth serious $$$.


(https://i.ibb.co/BrwJxyZ/20140711-160916983-i-OS.jpg) (https://ibb.co/BrwJxyZ)

(https://i.ibb.co/jM1wgmd/IMG-0633.jpg) (https://ibb.co/jM1wgmd)

(https://i.ibb.co/4RZQmrr/IMG-0634.jpg) (https://ibb.co/4RZQmrr)

(https://i.ibb.co/T1BxzKn/IMG-0682.jpg) (https://ibb.co/T1BxzKn)


Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: TimmyTheHog on December 18, 2018, 08:05:51 PM
Software development is a technical trade and is the environment in which I spend an inordinate amount of time. My current title is automation engineer. So, here's me, the technical engineer, surrounded by the demographic I described. I would expect to find more riders in a mechanical engineering sort of workplace. I never assumed IT would be a hotbed of gearheads but I will never be comfortable in an environment where most of the people can't wait for driverless cars to become predominant so they can watch videos all the way to work. Those people will definitely not be the market for future classic motorcycles. That's all I'm saying.

I am a mechanical Engineer...and MOST of my old classmates won't even considered a motorcycle due to "safety  & family reasons"...and more than half of them don't even own a car!...

I know more lawyers & businessmen that are gear-heads than engineers...funny how that works eh.

So what I am trying to say is...if you are a gear-head, doesn't matter what you do, you will always be one.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Furbo on December 18, 2018, 08:37:32 PM
I'll put in my $ with two Euro Trash sleds that are both in line with the contributions of the Honda 750 Four and the Z9 in that they were a leap forward and had a story:

1994 BMW R1100 RS. The first oil-head that brought BMW bikes out of the 1950's engineering age and kicked off the Sport Touring and later ADV stuff with the excellent brakes, terrific reliability, and far less maintenance than their Air Cooled predecessors. 

1994-6 MG Sport 1100. Shares development history and Dr. John's DNA with the Daytona but was far more an everymans machine. They were designed with the tinkerer in mind and begged to be mod'd. Once properly jetted and with the obligatory free flow exhaust they were the last of the he man Euro Trash Sportsters.  The follow on CARC bikes were better, but they are a middle aged quarter horse compared to a young mustang ride wise. The Sport 1100's should have been given the LeMans moniker.   
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: jas67 on December 18, 2018, 08:45:35 PM
No, by and large most software development types I've known from college through today are mostly a different demographic by far, especially these days. I mean these days they are the poster children for millennials and their econtent world. That's so far removed from the gear head demo it's ridiculous.

Sure Jay is an EE, but I can't think of a single other EE or a software guy from our fraternity who was a gear head even back then.

In my EE dept. of 11, there are two gearheads, me and one other.
That's also about the ratio in the ME depts in my immediate area of the company.    All the gearheads on both dept are over 40.

NONE of the millenials in either engineering dept. are gearheads.    And, most of them are in the "I can't wait for self-driving cars" group.

That said, I do know a few under 30 motorcycle riders.

Also, the demographics at the track days I've been to are encouraging too.   There seemed to fair number under 30 riders.  In fact I think there was a pretty even distribution of riders from ages 20 to 65.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Bulldog9 on December 18, 2018, 09:14:49 PM
HAHAHA sorry man. Time to break out the MAGA gear and have some fun hurting feelings....

Thanks for the invite, Lannis. I probably can't make it but it would do me good to get out of the office environment in which I'm presently toiling. Being surrounded by 30 year old gender-neutrals who can type 200 wpm with their thumbs and call their moms when they get a flat tire in their electric car is affecting my attitude. I'm starting to sound bitter. Going to a jumble such as the one you mentioned would do me a lot of good..if I could only get some time off work.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: reidy on December 19, 2018, 04:02:51 AM
A bit of a cross thread post here that sits somewhere in the middle of this and the current Vincent thread, but probably more suited here. A gentleman name Lannis (I have not met him so hopefully is not insulted by the term) posted about  his one and only Vincent ride.

To quote him he said "It was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity provided by a good friend to whom I will be forever grateful, but it also dissolved any "bucket list" dreams I might have had about cashing in all my existing bikes and sinking it into a Vincent for regular riding ....  I'm very happy now without one, instead of having this gnawing "Should I?  Should I?  I only live once ..." feeling ...."

I have said before about old popular classic motorcycles with a reputation for being a nice ride. If you ever have the chance to ride one you have to say it is a great ride, because if you don't you obviously don't know what you are talking about. If you purchase one you have to spread the legend of how great a bike they are. If you don't the value may fall when you try and sell it or yours is a bad example and not worth any money. If you criticize it after you sell it you must of just had a bad example that you didn't know how to maintain. If you have not ridden one or owned one your opinion is worthless.

Lannis appears to be content with his ride and I have no doubt he is happy with his experience but for him the bike at the current going price would not replace the enjoyment he gets from his current bike/s. I commend him for his honesty as it sort of goes against the above statement. I note it was not criticism of the bike but it obviously had some traits that didn't quite make him have to have one at any price.   

I am at this situation with an itch to acquire a 1971 Guzzi Ambassador. I have never had the opportunity to ride one, I just like the look and sound and am drawn to them. I know these are already considered classics and the prices are on the rise for a good one. What I would like to know is what are these really like to ride in a 2018 environment. Am I likely to have a Lannis moment and think, great experience but . I am really interested and may be worthy of a separate post. Please let me know your thoughts.

This also links in with the whole future classics thing. A 10 year old sports bike is no longer anywhere near the cutting edge of sports bike performance and now is just a moderately fast slightly uncomfortable bike. A 10 year old Californian can still transport its rider at a relaxed pace across country with a lower weight penalty than the new one so in some respects may be an equal or better bike.
Part of the reason I ride bikes is because of the way they make me feel. Is the way a bike will ride in 10 to 20 years time a contributing factor to being a future classic.

Steve

Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: weevee on December 19, 2018, 05:35:56 AM
..A 10 year old sports bike is no longer anywhere near the cutting edge of sports bike performance and now is just a moderately fast slightly uncomfortable bike.

Steve

Some 'classics' can still shake a tail feather.  Here's an interesting comparison of old vs new.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_fAaP5b3bo
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Aaron D. on December 19, 2018, 06:13:46 AM
Reidy, the thing with the loop Guzzis-they are fantastic to ride, only the brakes are not up to modern spec. And frankly you just get used to that.

Ridden as originally intended the whole lineup is still a superb motorcycle.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: twowheeladdict on December 19, 2018, 06:33:09 AM
I bought a 10 year old 1978 Honda 550 four SS for $400.  Rode it for 5 years and sold it for $800.

I bought a 1993 Honda XR250L  in ~2008 for $600 and sold it in 2012 for $1100.  The guy I sold it to got $1100 trade in on a new electric start dual sport a couple years later.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: ohiorider on December 19, 2018, 06:30:10 PM
Or, take a chance and pick a bike that's already a classic.  Thinking about ....
- BMW R90S
- MG 1000S
They're both pricey, and the bottom could fall out of that market.  But probably not.  These things aren't Vincents, they're German and Italian bikes that were somewhat rare when they were introduced.  But not horribly rare.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: jas67 on December 19, 2018, 06:40:27 PM
Or, take a chance and pick a bike that's already a classic.  Thinking about ....
- BMW R90S
- MG 1000S
They're both pricey, and the bottom could fall out of that market.  But probably not.  These things aren't Vincents, they're German and Italian bikes that were somewhat rare when they were introduced.  But not horribly rare.

The MG 1000S is substantially more rare than the R90S.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: LowRyter on December 19, 2018, 06:49:39 PM
No one mentioned the RZ-350

or what about the two stroke GP replicas that weren't sold here like Suzuki Gamma,  and Yammies and Hondas?

Kaw triples?

Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: sdcr on December 19, 2018, 06:54:48 PM
Both are pricey, but only the 1000S is "horribly rare", compared to the BMW. IIRC, about a hundred or so imported.

 
Or, take a chance and pick a bike that's already a classic.  Thinking about ....
- BMW R90S
- MG 1000S
They're both pricey, and the bottom could fall out of that market.  But probably not.  These things aren't Vincents, they're German and Italian bikes that were somewhat rare when they were introduced.  But not horribly rare.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Turin on December 19, 2018, 08:21:07 PM
The days of finding a decent RZ 350 for $2,500 are long over.  Gammas and other 500cc smokers have been pricey for years.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: JukeboxGothic on December 19, 2018, 08:34:12 PM
Ive owned two R90s BMWs and I sold both to buy Laverdas at different times. They are lovely bikes but not without some pretty major limitations. I still look at smoke orange ones and would love another but they are now pricey for what you get. My first one was $2000 Australian in 1986 when no one really wanted them and it was a goodun. If a 90s and a 1000s came up for the same money I would go for the goose.  I also had a Kawa triple and spent a load doing it up before they started pulling good money. They really were quite awful bikes but I would have another tomorrow. It went back to Japan with the new owner and I took a loss on the work I did.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: jas67 on December 19, 2018, 09:09:33 PM
If a 90s and a 1000s came up for the same money I would go for the goose. 

Absolutely!    I would say in the similar condition, the 1000S is definitely going to bring more money.

If you're patient, you can still find a nice R90S for $7-$9k.   A nice 1000S is going to cost you $12-$15k.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: earemike on December 20, 2018, 06:12:04 AM
Absolutely!    I would say in the similar condition, the 1000S is definitely going to bring more money.

If you're patient, you can still find a nice R90S for $7-$9k.   A nice 1000S is going to cost you $12-$15k.

Then what are 850 LeMans going for these days?

The 1000s is nice but a bit of a parts bin special- ahead of their time, I suspect theyd sell well these days.

If it was even money Id go the round fin every time.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Dilliw on December 20, 2018, 07:02:54 AM
How about the new FTR1200?  I guess it depends on how well it sales.

V rods Destroyer

FYI I'm still trying g to think of bikes produced within the last decade or so.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: blackcat on December 20, 2018, 08:25:09 AM
Then what are 850 LeMans going for these days?

The 1000s is nice but a bit of a parts bin special- ahead of their time, I suspect theyd sell well these days.

If it was even money Id go the round fin every time.

Buy both if that is an option.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: steven c on December 20, 2018, 08:28:31 AM
Then what are 850 LeMans going for these days?

The 1000s is nice but a bit of a parts bin special- ahead of their time, I suspect theyd sell well these days.

If it was even money Id go the round fin every time.
Ist gen LeMans seem to sell from $4000 to $25000, I'm sure mine is in the lower end!
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: blackcat on December 20, 2018, 08:34:30 AM
Ist gen LeMans seem to sell from $4000 to $25000, I'm sure mine is in the lower end!

Yeah, mine came in boxes for $3,500.
(https://preview.ibb.co/mmO11S/Lemans-I.jpg)
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Murray on December 20, 2018, 09:12:19 AM
If Guzz loops were going to become classics they would be by now. So ZX7R 91/2 era with the vacuum cleaner hose intakes, Slingshot GSXR750 888 Ducatis have already gone silly. If you come across a low miles 94 Ducati 916 or 916SP I'd grab it with both hands 750 Katana with the pop up headlight. First Gen ZZR1100R RGV250/Aprilia RS250, First Gen Hyabusa, First Gen R1 specifically the one with the red and white paint scheme and first gen Honda Fireblade 919.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: jas67 on December 20, 2018, 05:31:55 PM
Then what are 850 LeMans going for these days?

The 1000s is nice but a bit of a parts bin special- ahead of their time, I suspect theyd sell well these days.

If it was even money Id go the round fin every time.

A nice, well sorted, 850 (mk1) LeMans can fetch $15-18k these days.   In the last year, I've been 850 Le Mans, both mk1 and Le Mans III.   A decent Le Mans III can be had for as little as $5k-$6k, with near-perfect examples fetching $8k-$9k.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: steven c on December 20, 2018, 06:25:13 PM
If Guzz loops were going to become classics they would be by now. So ZX7R 91/2 era with the vacuum cleaner hose intakes, Slingshot GSXR750 888 Ducatis have already gone silly. If you come across a low miles 94 Ducati 916 or 916SP I'd grab it with both hands 750 Katana with the pop up headlight. First Gen ZZR1100R RGV250/Aprilia RS250, First Gen Hyabusa, First Gen R1 specifically the one with the red and white paint scheme and first gen Honda Fireblade 919.
Mine came already cooked!
(https://i.ibb.co/559TXs4/47574160-10214988639361973-5493559872219774976-n.jpg) (https://ibb.co/559TXs4)
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: zebraranger on December 20, 2018, 06:53:28 PM
I always thought the 4th generation Triumph Thunderbird (1994 to 2003) had such a nice classic look. Know mostly for their bullet proof triple cylinder Hinckley motors, I was always keeping an eye out for one. I found this one about 3 years ago and fixed her up.
(https://i.postimg.cc/JztrvjKG/1024-ee8.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
(https://i.postimg.cc/0yrSnMwC/1024-ee5.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: steven c on December 20, 2018, 06:58:51 PM
 To bad Triumph didn't keep these in the line with the newer motors.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Turin on December 20, 2018, 07:40:22 PM
The first generation Hinckley Triumphs are fantastic machines. Unfortunately they have not caught on and prices are miserably low. Even the Flagship limited edition daytona Super III can be had for a reasonable price. A really clean Thunderbird with low miles can be had for about $2,500 bucks. Oddly, the Tbird sport commands the most $.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: Kev m on December 20, 2018, 08:19:21 PM
I always thought the 4th generation Triumph Thunderbird (1994 to 2003) had such a nice classic look. Know mostly for their bullet proof triple cylinder Hinckley motors, I was always keeping an eye out for one. I found this one about 3 years ago and fixed her up.
(https://i.postimg.cc/JztrvjKG/1024-ee8.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
(https://i.postimg.cc/0yrSnMwC/1024-ee5.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)

Great looking bike. I've ridden one and liked it, even if it is far from my wheelhouse.

I could see these becoming sought after one day.

But I dunno or care about that.
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: blackcat on December 21, 2018, 08:52:08 AM
Mine came already cooked!
(https://i.ibb.co/559TXs4/47574160-10214988639361973-5493559872219774976-n.jpg) (https://ibb.co/559TXs4)


Yikes. What's it look like now?
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: steven c on December 21, 2018, 03:15:52 PM

(https://i.ibb.co/ZBPxJ5h/lemans.jpg) (https://ibb.co/ZBPxJ5h)
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: ohiorider on December 21, 2018, 05:59:08 PM
Great looking bike. I've ridden one and liked it, even if it is far from my wheelhouse.

I could see these becoming sought after one day.

But I dunno or care about that.
I've always liked the looks of this generation of Triumph!  Don't know how they ride or handle, but to me, they're great looking machines ....... kind of a modern spin on the 1960s Bonnevilles.

Bob
Title: Re: Future classics
Post by: oilhed on December 22, 2018, 09:47:17 PM
I always thought the 4th generation Triumph Thunderbird (1994 to 2003) had such a nice classic look. Know mostly for their bullet proof triple cylinder Hinckley motors, I was always keeping an eye out for one. I found this one about 3 years ago and fixed her up.
(https://i.postimg.cc/JztrvjKG/1024-ee8.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)
(https://i.postimg.cc/0yrSnMwC/1024-ee5.jpg) (https://postimages.org/)

I loved that whole line.  The T-bird sport, the Legend...  I think they got a bad rap as a new Brit UJM.  Never met an owner that didn't love and had no real problems with one.
(https://mcn-images.bauersecure.com/upload/874/images/h_003-01.jpg)
(https://mcn-images.bauersecure.com/upload/884/images/g_003~1.jpg)