The classic bike price bubble

[Sheepdog]

Looking back, I was very lucky with the first bike restoration I undertook: a 1960 BMW R60. I couldn�t afford the full frame/bodywork repaint, but I did make it run/handle/stop as new. It was complete...everythi ng was there; a little worn, but fully functional. It was 40 years old at the time. The 1971 Triumph TR6R I�m doing now is not so complete. Everything is there and the numbers match, but many of the parts (headlight, taillight, rear fender, exhaust system) are from later models or the aftermarket. What a drag, right? WRONG! The research, finding parts, and sitting at my bench cleaning and cataloging parts is really where the fun begins. I worked for two hours cleaning and restoring the taillight before I looked in the parts book to get the part number. It was from a T140...as was the rear fender and headlight. No problem! I�m not that same young father with really limited funds that I used to be...I can actually afford to make a decently original-looking 47 year old Tiger 650. I started searches on all the vintage British sites and E-Bay, figured out if the quality/cost ratio was reasonable and started purchasing parts. There cannot be a better way to know your machine than this...and in my case, there is a mental health benefit, too.

[mjptexas]

Interesting thread.  My observations:

people have been talking about the classic bike price bubble for as long as i have been involved in classic bikes ( 45 years. i'm that old))
but i cant remember any price drops in these years. just a pretty steady increase in prices...
 

IMHO bikes that truly move to collectable status have some special panache that supersedes generations.

But, don't you think as some of us *ahem* "long in the tooth" potential buyers fade into the sunset and are no longer buying, the market will have to come down?.....
 

To some extent, perhaps yes.  But the drop will likely relate to the "bikes we grew up with" and not the marques that turn into real collectables.

An automotive example:  about 20 years ago Model Ts took a big hit for that exact reason, as the casual collectors were dying off.  Haven't looked lately to see if the prices have recovered, but I suspect they have to some extent.  But don't forget, people were paying $20,000 plus for a car that retailed for what, $400?  And there were tens of millions of them built.   I think you will see the same thing happen for lesser 60s/70s muscle cars in about 20 years.

From a motorcycle standpoint I would expect to see the prices for bikes like CB350s, Yamaha and Suzuki two strokes, etc. come down or stabilize.

But there bikes like bevel-head Ducatis and pre-war Harleys and Indians that probably will not decrease in value.  In my opinion, almost all pre-1970 British bikes will ultimately fall into this category.

I am relatively young in this forum, born in the 70s.

I like classic motorcycle, will admire all of them. If I have to part with my money to own an old motorcycle, there is a very clear cut line at 1970. I have very little interest in owning one of those that older than 1970.

I used to feel that way until I really became intrigued with Italian motorcycles.  Now I'd like to see a smaller Italian single, pre-65, in my herd.

It's the history of the old stuff that makes it desirable, not intrinsic merit of some kind.  People who didn't live that history, or care nothing about it, have no interest in old vehicles.

That may be true, but I think there will always be enough people, regardless of generation, with strong interest certain vehicles, keeping the values stable or growing (for automobiles think Ferrari and Porsche).   Again, IMHO, bikes like bevel-drive Ducatis and pre-war Harleys and Indians will remain stable or go up in value.

I can only speak from the Classic Honda end of things... as that's "my thing".

CB750s... so many "it was running when I parked it", or "it just needs the carbs cleaned", bikes out there... and everyone wants $2500 for them, no matter the condition. My rule for buying an old bike... if I can't start it, it's a parts bike...
 

'Running when parked' - definitely a parts bike unless one is a true marque/model guru (We have some of those gurus in this forum).

CB750s, specifically the SOHC K models, seem to be an interesting phenomenon.  I believe there were in excess of 500,000 sold in the 70s, so they were ubiquitous, and, given the fact they are tough as a rock there are still a lot of them out there.  They are so iconic that I bet there will always be a market for one, given a reasonable price.

On the cars, does no one see the irony in saying that "the value is falling" of a car that sold for $5000 in 1970 and could be bought for $8000 in 1980 "dropping in value" from $300,000 to $200,000 today ... ?
 

Lannis has a very interesting observation.  Just because someone buys at the market peak and loses a lot of money doesn't mean the bike (or car) is not still very valuable.

Years ago I was big into collecting Colt firearms.  Here are my takeaways from that exercise that apply to collecting classic motorcycles:
1. Not every item is collectable just because it's old.
2. Condition is of paramount importance.  Don't pay the 'excellent condition' price for a 'fair condition' item.
3. Conversely, some items are very collectable regardless of condition due to rarity or historical significance.
4. Originality is key.  Real collectors don't pay as much for reconditioned items.
5. Be careful about buying items you have not researched.
6. Don't expect to make money when you sell.  You probably won't.

[Steph]

I can only speak from the Classic Honda end of things... as that's "my thing".

CB750s... so many "it was running when I parked it", or "it just needs the carbs cleaned", bikes out there... and everyone wants $2500 for them, no matter the condition. My rule for buying an old bike... if I can't start it, it's a parts bike.

I don't pay market value on someone else's "project", UNLESS I know the person and know what kind of shadetree mechanic they are. Some old bikes are in fantastic condition, but it's pretty easy to tell which ones, just by talking to the owner. If they know their shit, it's apparent.

My "daily rider" SOHC CB750 looks like a rat, as I haven't put any real work into the appearance of it, but it's got completely new electrical front to back, a brand new electronic ignition system. New suspension front and rear. All bearings replaced. Barnett Clutch, new cables, gauges, controls and switches. New master cylinder and rebuilt calipers. Etc. But it looks like shit. I probably wouldn't get $1500 for it, unless the purchaser knew their stuff. But I see bikes that look like someone started to build a "cafe racer", that won't start, are basket cases, or have been hacked up beyond recovery, going for twice that. It's entirely dependent on the buyer. I watched my buddy's ex "customize" her CB750... I wouldn't ride it if you paid me, but she got constant offers for it. I don't get it.

Yep, that was my original point and what I’ve seen.

My last enquiry was funny:
1) the owner described to me a nice overpriced Laverda with no issue. Info only through emails as he did not provide me his number for a requested call.

 2) I google search the bike/owner on the laverda forum and found: purchased two years ago, ignition misfiring, hanging gear changes, carburation issues, neutral light problem etc!


 So yes the market is expanding to include previously "undesirable" bikes, beyond the standard "must haves” 
but you can’t judge a book by its cover