What year do prices match?

[Lannis]

Didn't know how to title it but here it is.

Thinking about Phang's comment about the Ducati up for sale, he mentions that people where he is pay more for these bikes now than they were when they were new.

Which got me to thinking ... Some bikes (like Honda GB500s) hit cult status real quick, and bikes they couldn't give away in 1990 are selling for $6000 or more.   Others, like maybe Honda twins of the early 80s, seem to be selling real cheap.

But in general (just for kicks) about what's the "breakpoint" year where almost any standard bike from that year sells for as many or more 2018 dollars today than it sold for originally in that year's dollars, when in excellent condition?

For example, a 1972 R5 Yamaha sold for about $725.    An excellent condition R5 Yamaha today sells for much more than that ....

Lannis

[Toecutter]

If we're assuming "Showroom condition", I'm going to go out on a limb and say "none".

[Tom]

Good question.  I'll throw this into the mix "The government held the $35 per ounce price until August 15, 1971, when President Richard Nixon announced that the United States would no longer convert dollars to gold at a fixed value, thus completely abandoning the gold standard."  Not sure of the influence on the price of your example bike (1972 R5)  I remember the cost of imported goods going up however after the bill was signed by Pres. Nixon.

One barometer that seems to hold for a bike hitting rock bottom or start to hid rock bottom is when the used price is a dollar per cc of engine size.  As for used prices going up over the original list msrp.  IMHO somewhere within the 15 to 20 years after the date of manufacture for the bike.  Throw in other variables for numbers made and exclusivity of the marque.

BUT the only real way is to see what other models are sold for.  In 2018 dollars,  looks like you'd have to throw more money at an older bike.

This should help to make my answer as clear as mud.   

[Lannis]

If we're assuming "Showroom condition", I'm going to go out on a limb and say "none".

The lines HAVE to cross somewhere.

For example, a 1965 ElectraGlide cost about $2200 new.   In 1974 or so, you could buy a nice one for $1400.    By 1980, they cost around $2200 again, and NOW, a nice one would be $10,000 or more.

Or a Nuovo Falcone.   Around $1500 (I think) in 1970, less than that 10 years later for even a nice example, but up to $2500 by 2000, and $8000 or so now.

Maybe it's not generically answerable, come to think of it.   In 1970, a Vincent was just an old used bike, 17 years after it was built, and went for chump change ....

Lannis

[PJPR01]

In nominal dollars the lines will cross as you say, in inflation adjusted dollars (or constant currency)...only the good stuff will. 

I think back to the old 1968 Volvo 122S my dad bought when it was 2 years old and he gave me that car in 1981 as my first car which I used to drive to university, by which time it had been "maintained" but not particularly well.  Of course I had to rebuild it from top to bottom over the next few years, literally every item on that car was rebuilt (engine, transmission, shocks, u-joints, SU carbs, exhaust headers, clutch, the works)...and at the same I sold it in 1990 may have been worth $2500, which was more than 20 years after he had bought it for the same $2500 in 1970.  Today, that car in decent shape as a collector's item (hard to believe a Volvo Amazon 122S would even make it to collector status) is probably worth $4-$6K, but without doing the math, that's probably about or less than $2500 in 1990 dollars...

I'm guessing the value depends on cult status as you mention...not every model will make it there.

[Ncdan]

Honda made a GL650 silverwing interstate, light weight Touring model, for only one year, then the Ragan tariff killed them. From 2-3 years later you could still buy one in the crate for around 2500. I sold one last year for that price.

[Lannis]

Honda made a GL650 silverwing interstate, light weight Touring model, for only one year, then the Ragan tariff killed them. From 2-3 years later you could still buy one in the crate for around 2500. I sold one last year for that price.

The bit of empirical data (like this, Electraglides, etc) that we have seems to indicate that the "crossover" time is about 35 years, then .... !

Lannis

[Idontwantapickle]

You may want to get a beverage.

In my observations of vehicle value in the US most seem to bottom out at about 15 years. At that point they either stay low and that model line fades into oblivion (any 1980's American car) or they are interesting in some way and begin to increase in value. The Eldorado is a fair example of this. In the mid eighties to early nineties the loop frame Guzzi was widely available in running condition for 500-1000 dollars. Not any more! But are they up to their original value? Not as group, at least not yet. If an Eldorado sold for 1400 USD in 1972 the current equivalent value would be 8432 USD. We will have to assume that this would be an average value for good condition examples. So we can track it over time but since the value of a 1972 dollar is constantly changing and the value of the commodity is also changing there is a possibility that even if loops continue to steadily gain they may never, as a group, attain a value equal to the dollars they were originally purchased with.
Just one more example. A 2007 Norge listed for 15500 IIRC. That would be 18675 today. A long way to go!
YMMV

Hunter

[Ncdan]

The bit of empirical data (like this, Electraglides, etc) that we have seems to indicate that the "crossover" time is about 35 years, then .... !

Lannis

I’d say that’s fairly accurate but I don’t know if that’s with most all makes and models or just a select few like the silverwing. I know the 900 CB CUSTOMS  from 81-83 follow this pattern. On the other hand many of those bikes in that era you can’t hardly give away. For instance the 750 customs, chain drive won’t bring near what they sold for unless maybe in total mint condition even then it’s doubtful.

[Lannis]

But are they up to their original value? Not as group, at least not yet. If an Eldorado sold for 1400 USD in 1972 the current equivalent value would be 8432 USD.

Actually, I was thinking not in "current equivalent value", but when did a rideable Eldo get back up to the price it sold for new, in current dollars?

Also, thinking about older cars .... What American car from before, say, 1965, isn't worth a LOT of money in excellent original or nice restored condition?    The cheapest beaters of the time, the VW Beetle ... $1500 back then, $10,000 now if you can find one.    Cheapest, most common, most ubiquitous beater on earth?   The Citroen 2CV.    $12,000 now, it's like they're made of silver.

Even something like an AMC Rebel, which I bought and sold 2 of, drove them around, and less than $100 changed hands each time, they're 2 or 3 times what they sold for.   Or a Ford Falcon six ...

Bikes too.   What pre-'65 bike in good rideable shape doesn't go for a lot of money .... ?   

Lannis

[Ncdan]

Actually, I was thinking not in "current equivalent value", but when did a rideable Eldo get back up to the price it sold for new, in current dollars?

Also, thinking about older cars .... What American car from before, say, 1965, isn't worth a LOT of money in excellent original or nice restored condition?    The cheapest beaters of the time, the VW Beetle ... $1500 back then, $10,000 now if you can find one.    Cheapest, most common, most ubiquitous beater on earth?   The Citroen 2CV.    $12,000 now, it's like they're made of silver.

Even something like an AMC Rebel, which I bought and sold 2 of, drove them around, and less than $100 changed hands each time, they're 2 or 3 times what they sold for.   Or a Ford Falcon six ...

Bikes too.   What pre-'65 bike in good rideable shape doesn't go for a lot of money .... ?   

Lannis

Old cars will probably come closer than old bikes. I’m a mopar guy and the muscle cars of the late 60s became as valuable as they cost by the early 80s or maybe sooner.
Interesting conversation for us old farts.

[JohninVT]

It really depends on the bike.  The Honda Cub variants like the CT90, CT110 and Passport routinely sell for more than twice their original MSRP.  Yes, it's 35 years since they were sold in the US but over 100 million have been built.  They're not rare.  It's only in the last 7-8 years that they've gotten so (relatively)expensive. 

Something similar is happening with Honda Ascot's.  5-6 years ago they were an obscure bike with little value but suddenly they're selling for $2,500 or more.  I'm sure some of this is regional.  They may not pull that much elsewhere.  T3's seem a lot like the Ascot.  6-7 years ago you could buy a nice one for $1,500.  All of a sudden people are asking 4 grand for them. 

I guess what I'm saying is that I don't think bikes lose and then gain value in a linear fashion.  A number of factors combine to suddenly cause prices to rise dramatically.  A good example is the scrambler craze pushing Airhead prices up.  Every hipster with a sawzall started snapping up Airheads and then hacking them into a rolling pile of crap they call a scrambler.  Within a few years prices doubled.       

[Huzo]

Well something I'll add.
Notwithstanding the artificially inflated value of 80's Japanese plastic bikes.
My mate bought a brand new Z1000 Kawasaki, the first one sold in my city in about 1976 or so. It cost him 9 months take home wage .
I think it was about 4 grand.
Now if the same guy bought a new Jap bike with 9 months take home wage today, he'd have 45,000 bucks to spend.
I don't think there's a top line Jap sports bike out there that costs that much.
It sorta' craps me off a bit, that these bike values are driven up by investors. If enough people suddenly decide that a CB 250 Honda Hawk is worth $15,000 then it suddenly is, but it's still the piece of underpowered, under braked thing it always was, and that goes for...
Vincent's, Hailwoid Replicas, round case Dukes, Le Mans' and all the rest.
The bike's are no better than they ever were, they're just like art works, worth what you know you can get.
Of course I'm no Mother Theresa here either, I'm hanging onto my Mk 2 Le Mans, so I can sell it for twice what I paid and get my V 85...!

[JohninVT]

In the past, motorcycle enthusiasts sort of knew when bikes were going to be collectible but for whatever reason didn't sell well when they were introduced.  You could keep an eye on the resale of certain models and pick one up when the prices started rising.  The internet has changed that to a large degree.  Bike Exif, Pipeburn, Cafe Racer magazine, ADVrider and numerous other outlets recycle articles and generate interest.  When Bike Exif posts up a modded CB550, ten guys decide to buy one off Ebay or Craigslist and hack it up.  Then one appears on Pipeburn.  Then three more get submitted to Exif and builds start being documented on ADVrider and they appear in magazines or elsewhere online.  Suddenly CB550's are untouchable under $2500 bucks when you used to be able to buy a nice one for 12-1500.  That's what happened with Airheads ten years ago when everyone and their brother started scrambler-izing them.  I could have bought a BMW R80ST for $1,800 6 years ago but I was a complete idiot and passed.  It's the only Airhead I've ever actually wanted and now they're twice that.         

[Huzo]

Yep.
I'll wager that if the arse dropped out of the Le Mans market and you could pick one up for 1500 bucks, clean it up and sell it for 1900, no bastard would want one.
They're really not that good compared to today's stuff.
My Norge craps on my Mk 2 from a great height by any comparison but is nowhere near as "desirable",
(Not unlike a 2VPC Norge vs 4VPC), they're not "better" it's just that more people want them...

[jas67]

It sorta' craps me off a bit, that these bike values are driven up by investors. If enough people suddenly decide that a CB 250 Honda Hawk is worth $15,000 then it suddenly is, but it's still the piece of underpowered, under braked thing it always was, and that goes for...
Vincent's, Hailwoid Replicas, round case Dukes, Le Mans' and all the rest.
The bike's are no better than they ever were, they're just like art works, worth what you know you can get.
Of course I'm no Mother Theresa here either, I'm hanging onto my Mk 2 Le Mans, so I can sell it for twice what I paid and get my V 85...!

Yep, there's definitely nothing rational about buying vintage motorcycles.     For the $11k that I have into my Eldorado, there are a lot of way more capable modern motorcycles that I could buy.

[jas67]

Yep.
I'll wager that if the arse dropped out of the Le Mans market and you could pick one up for 1500 bucks, clean it up and sell it for 1900, no bastard would want one.
They're really not that good compared to today's stuff.
My Norge craps on my Mk 2 from a great height by any comparison but is nowhere near as "desirable",
(Not unlike a 2VPC Norge vs 4VPC), they're not "better" it's just that more people want them...

I don't think you'll ever see the Le Mans market fall anywhere near that far.

I do wonder though, as collectors age out, and sell off their collections, will there be enough interested buyers to sustain even current pricing, adjusted for inflation, of course?

I think the rare, high end stuff, will always be pricy, but, the more common stuff, the CB350, CB550, more common airheads like 80's to early 90's R65, R80, etc will likely stagnate. 

Look at Model T and Model A Fords.   They're 80-90 years old, and you can pick a decent one up for mid teens.

I wonder if the 60's muscle car market won't do the same thing when people who had them or wanted them in their teens and twenties are too old to drive, or dead.

[Ncdan]

I don't think you'll ever see the Le Mans market fall anywhere near that far.

I do wonder though, as collectors age out, and sell off their collections, will there be enough interested buyers to sustain even current pricing, adjusted for inflation, of course?

I think the rare, high end stuff, will always be pricy, but, the more common stuff, the CB350, CB550, more common airheads like 80's to early 90's R65, R80, etc will likely stagnate. 

Look at Model T and Model A Fords.   They're 80-90 years old, and you can pick a decent one up for mid teens.

I wonder if the 60's muscle car market won't do the same thing when people who had them or wanted them in their teens and twenties are too old to drive, or dead.

I’ve got a buddy that’s got a 1967 Plymouth GTX that he bought new and got drafted 3 months later. It was a 440 3 Deuce 4 speed, baby blue, with 3,600 miles on it when he got drafted. When he left his dad jacked it up and took the wheels and tires off, stacked them up and covered the car up. My buddy stayed in the army for 4 years and when he returned home for what ever reason decided not to put the Plymouth back on the street and to this day sits in a climate controlled basement with only a few more miles recorded. He occasionally will allow someone who is restoring one to come and take pictures and examine things that they can only see how it was done from the factory with a car as perfect and original as this one. From what I understand he has turned down 250k for her and the original window sticker is 3,800...something, so go figure.

[Lannis]

I�ve got a buddy that�s got a 1967 Plymouth GTX that he bought new and got drafted 3 months later. It was a 440 3 Deuce 4 speed, baby blue, with 3,600 miles on it when he got drafted. ...... I understand he has turned down 250k for her and the original window sticker is 3,800...something, so go figure.

Drafted in 1967, so born in 48-49 so he's 70 years old, with 4 years in the Army.

I'm only 6 years younger than him, I manage my retirement income carefully, and I can tell you that there's nothing in anyone's basement that I ever bought or COULD buy that I'd turn down a quarter of a mill for.

Fay wouldn't even be safe .... !!!   Dude is either rolling in family money, or just doesn't care about it.   Comes in darn useful around my house, I can tell you that.

Lannis

[Ncdan]

Drafted in 1967, so born in 48-49 so he's 70 years old, with 4 years in the Army.

I'm only 6 years younger than him, I manage my retirement income carefully, and I can tell you that there's nothing in anyone's basement that I ever bought or COULD buy that I'd turn down a quarter of a mill for.

Fay wouldn't even be safe .... !!!   Dude is either rolling in family money, or just doesn't care about it.   Comes in darn useful around my house, I can tell you that.

He has a good retirement from a LE career and I reckon a man can get mighty attached to a car he has had since a teenager, like his wife;)
It’s hard to imagine a car bringing that much money but just watch that, Mecums auction and wait for those old mopar car roll through. That same car with a 426 hemi would bring close to a mill