The reason for the decline in motorcycle sales

[Lannis]

I think the real problem are the bike manufacturers and their unrealistic production and sales expectations.  Did Harley Davidson really think they could continue to make and sell 350,000 bikes a year forever? 

Probably not.   But they'd have been crazy if they HADN'T produced and sold 350,000 bikes a year, or 200,000 or however many they could sell while the market for their product was hot.   

No product lasts forever.   AT&T phone rental ($2 a phone per year in 100,000,000 homes) worked for them for 100 years.   Gillette made a fortune in double edged razor blades, and for 75 years you could do well owning Gillette stock.   Eastman Kodak ... well, they rode it for 100 years while they could.

Same with Harley.   If they planned right, they've amortized the cost of the facilities that produced the bikes they sold, and now it's time for them to move on.    Just natural, no fault of Harley's ....

Lannis

[Kev m]

I think the real problem are the bike manufacturers and their unrealistic production and sales expectations.  Did Harley Davidson really think they could continue to make and sell 350,000 bikes a year forever?

Absolutely agreed.

I mean:

1986: 36,735 bikes sold
2006: 349,196 bikes sold

That's meteoric. That's ~10x increase in two decades.

In the same time frame BMW Motorcycles grew at something like 1/4 that rate.

Where's Triumph these days, are they approaching 50k bike per year? That's less than how many Sportsters Harley STILL sells in a year.

How about Ducati?

Does BMW+Triumph+Ducati+Guzzi total sales = HD sales yet? That might be getting close now.

Maybe this will finally push Harley to broaden their outlook. Lord knows they could use it in some ways.

I may never forgive them about Buell...but bet they wish they had carried him and his products longer to see what they might have to offer today.

[Mayor_of_BBQ]

MotorMike is right,

plenty of people are buying motorcycles, they just arent buing the new bikes manufactures are making....  $25,000 BMW adventure bikes and $20k 1800cc harleys arent selling....  Old used bikes and small displacement bikes are selling everywhere

Maybe my perspective is skewed because I live in a motorcycle mecca, but I know more ppl riding than ever

[Toecutter]

From the perspective of what you folks lovingly refer to as a millennial, I can tell you the biggest reason is a lot simpler than that: we can�t afford new motorcycles. We ESPECIALLY can�t afford the big-displacement, overpriced (cough - Harley - cough) motorcycles that the generation before us popularized so well. Things are different now. We can�t afford to �work and pay our way through college� anymore. More and more of us are being forced to move back in with parents. As costs of living outpace wage increases and job prospects, luxuries like new motorcycles feel just as out of reach as home ownership (you know, another market that millenials are killing, in addition to jewelry stores and Applebee�s).
If you�d take the time to actually observe and chat with a few of us confoundin, dagnabbin millenials, you�ll see that we�re pretty huge fans of the vintage market, barn finds, and finding cheap bikes on Craigslist that we can afford to pick up. Scrape together a bit from our paychecks and make them our own. We love it. Here in Pittsburgh, I can name three cooperative shops in a 3 square mile area where a bunch of us rent a space, stock it with whatever tools we can afford, and wrench on our bikes. We buy old shop manuals off eBay, make tons of mistakes, create some really cool things, and absolutely love it. At 26, I�m fortunate enough to own three bikes so far. One of them I bought from my brother and pulled it out of a storage shed. The other two were bought used, one is a 2011 and the other a 2012. A truly new bike, the statistic with the storm cloud over it, is just out of reach for me (and almost every single one of my millenial riding buddies) for right now. We can�t afford new ones.

Gen X here. Nothing different... except it never crossed my mind to miove into my parent's, we just rented shithole basement apartments in the shitty part of town and ate NoName ramen. My early bikes were rats, complete and total ratbikes. My SOHC CB750 was held together with wishes and electrical tape. I don't think I paid more than $500 for a bike until my mid 30s, at which point I bought an $1100 CB750 SOHC. My first new bike came at the ripe old age of 42. New bikes haven't been in reach for late teen/ 20/ early 30s for a few generations. I don't know anyone (outside of Boom/bust olfield and related industry employees) that was able to buy new toys at a young age.

But, it's all moot. We'll see the "death by regulation" of the internal combustion engine before I die.

The more things change...

[Sasquatch Jim]

 It is because people don't want to buy them any more.

[Tusayan]

plenty of people are buying motorcycles, they just arent buing the new bikes manufactures are making....  $25,000 BMW adventure bikes and $20k 1800cc harleys arent selling....  Old used bikes and small displacement bikes are selling everywhere

I don't know a thing about who buys Harleys but I think the $25K BMW thing has about 5-10 more years to run, based on the average age and health of BMW club members I know well.   They are the same people I knew who bought new BMWs 25 years ago, its just that now they can and do spend more, every couple of years.  They're not stupid people and they know time for them individually is running out. In that context saving money isn't the main issue, and arguably spending more provides a status benefit that that is only possible within a short window of their riding career.  It's a niche market, but one that earns good money per unit.

Otherwise, unlike motorcyclists in (say) 1971 when bikes were getting more practical and useful every year, we now have about 45 model years of used bikes that can provide reliable, fun riding.  1990s Italian stuff continues to be better and more exciting for me than anything made now.  I'm younger than the BMW Club norm, can still work on my stuff (physically), would rather use my money elsewhere, and I don't feel the pressure to be seen on the newest and 'best' before my time runs out.  I don't fit the niche.

[Devildog]

"1990 Italian stuff"

[GearheadGrrrl]

I'm not a (big)"data analyst", but let me throw this out- You could probably build a statistical model that predicts motorcycle sales based on the number of riding age people without children, disposable income, the price of entry level bikes, and how many people slip through the above filters than can ride a bicycle and shift gears. That statistical model would tell you that HOG(NYSE) is in deep trouble, the rest of the bike business is in for some tough years, and a manufacturer with the guts to disrupt the market with an affordable 3 wheeler with an automatic tranny and maybe electric propulsion is gonna make a killing...

[twowings]

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