Predictions:electric cars

[Rough Edge racing]

Hi All,                                                               2-21-21

Germany, Sweden, Denmark and several other northern latitude countries use a combination of solar/wind (along with other renewables), very effectively.  It gets pretty cold in those places...what do they know that we don't?

Be well, stay well,
DougG

P.S.  I lived in Iowa for a few years...beautiful solar and wind farms...very cold winters.

No fair comparison between small Nordic countries and even Germany with the far larger USA.

[Perazzimx14]

Actually, I hope just enough people buy EVs to keep them viable, without diminishing our ICE support infrastructure.  I plan to have at least one ICE Truck, and motorcycle at all times to cover all scenarios. 

At the price I will hopefully buy an EV for, it makes a lot of sense for my needs in a vehicle to run errands, appointments, visits, etc.  The reduced maintenance, The convenience, the recurring costs of ownership.  etc.

My brain says an EV is a no brainer at the price I am hoping to pay.  Where I live Electricity costs are regulated and stable.  We have Hydro and Nuclear plants supplying our electricity. 

Even if you have no interest in owning one, I would recommend test driving one, and test riding a Zero or Livewire, unless of course you are afraid you might enjoy it. 

Our Buick Encore isolates you from the road so much that you barely know the engine is on at idle and the predominant sound when getting on it is the turbo whine.  Reviewers have negative comments about the sound the Mazda makes when getting on the gas.  You definitely know it is working.

The EV just scoots along and wind noise is the predominant noise you hear while driving.

Yep I a afraid to try an EV  I'll stick with ICE where I feel safe.

[Perazzimx14]

Never say never.

I heard the same thing at the RC airplane club some time ago. Now electric power is the overwhelming, predominate power source. There are very few still flying with ICE powered models, and even they have a collection of battery powered models.

There would have been a time when I would have said the same. Now, I'm not so certain of that. I'm not a spring chicken any more, but I could see this in my auto future.

Just saying...

John Henry

Never and forced are not the same.

[twowheeladdict]

Solar panels worked in Texas. So did wind turbines. Oh, wait...

Predictions about the future are...

...Somebody needs to read some Kevin Cameron.

https://www.cycleworld.com/story/bikes/what-if-all-automobiles-never-mind-motorcycles-were-electric/

https://www.cycleworld.com/basics-of-vehicle-efficiency-kevin-cameron-top-dead-center/

https://www.cycleworld.com/story/blogs/ask-kevin/the-persistence-of-the-piston-engine/

Interesting articles by someone who is a motojournalist. 

I'm sure you do realize that there are very smart people out there who participate in "think tanks" to work out all these "what if" scenarios.  Many of these "think tanks" are kept classified for national security. 

Personally, I like the idea of where feasible, installing personal wind turbines, solar panels, etc. to take on the increased demand to charge vehicles at home.  Solar panels have come down in price and have improved capacities over the years.  If you can install yourself, you save $10s of thousands of dollars in labor. 

In my area, if you do solar panels while still connected to the grid, you don't need a storage capability.  The excess energy you create during the day runs your meter backwards and the amount you need at night to heat or cool your home and charge your car gets pulled from the grid.  This helps the power companies with the extra demand during the day from those that need more than their solar panels can produce. 

Personally, I think Solar and wind turbines are real eyesores ruining the natural beauty where they are usually installed out in the country.  They should mount them on top of city buildings IMO. 

Right now is the time to own an EV before the market is saturated and the grid stressed. 

[twowheeladdict]

Yep I a afraid to try an EV  I'll stick with ICE where I feel safe.

How did you get that out of what I posted?  I said "Afraid you might like it"  Nothing to do with you wanting to be in your safe place.

The reason I don't test ride the V85TT, is because I'm afraid I might like it and will have to figure out a way to buy it. 

You do seem to have a unique way of interpreting what people post on this forum.   

[dguzzi]

Splain "buffalo fins"

John Henry

   Like buffalo wings only fish, maybe buffalo gills? 

[Seventy One]

I guess my definition of free is different than yours.

Speaking of cars...would you like a free car? I have a 2004 Mercury Marauder. Give me $12,500 cash and it's yours for free. 

Partly bit like this (single family houses in Finland)? Changing 12v electricity to normal 230V via suitable inverter.














My next car might be BMW i3 as there starts to be enough of those in 2. hand markets. Could easily cover more than 90% of my needs of car.

[Jorg66]

Germany's Electric /Green Energy was /is also heavily subsidized to get there, now 'stop ' to some now Projects for Wind.
I'm pro Water [ Hydro Plants like Here in MB ,...Norway pretty much all  ], Sun and Wind .
Have a little Panel Set up for my Shop ,came with a cost tho.
Wanted to do Solar would have cost me up here $ 40000 US for a single Dwelling ,well thats some thing to chew on .
Plus will Electric stay 'cheap ' when the whole World will plug in their Cars ,hmmm .... .
Usually if something is being made to go away [ Oil ]something else will /has to replace it ,....but not for 'free or cheap '.

[Perazzimx14]

How did you get that out of what I posted?  I said "Afraid you might like it"  Nothing to do with you wanting to be in your safe place.

The reason I don't test ride the V85TT, is because I'm afraid I might like it and will have to figure out a way to buy it. 

You do seem to have a unique way of interpreting what people post on this forum.   

Why do you assume that everyone who does not like or care for EV's has not tried them?

[twowheeladdict]

Why do you assume that everyone who does not like or care for EV's has not tried them?

Because if they had, they would have stated it, now wouldn't they?  Why would you not say.  "Yes, I took a test ride, and they are just not for me."  That would give more credence to your opinion.   

What purpose would it serve in a conversation to hold back that bit of knowledge?   

[Perazzimx14]

Because if they had, they would have stated it, now wouldn't they?  Why would you not say.  "Yes, I took a test ride, and they are just not for me."  That would give more credence to your opinion.   

What purpose would it serve in a conversation to hold back that bit of knowledge?

I didn't offer an opinion on EV's.

[kingoffleece]

Interesting article in our paper this morning about battery technology and the power grid.  best estimate at this moment is 1.3 TRILLION needed in grid improvements and new sources of raw materials needed as demand already outstrips supply.  Further, most seem to think the next real improvement will be in a solid state battery.  The fact was mentioned  that any gel/liquid/Li type as exists now is too much of a fire hazard.  Solid State also, they thought, will allow for much faster charging without nearly the approx 2% power loss per year present battery tech suffers with.  In addition, the highest and best use of existing battery tech is to use them between 80% and 20% with the absolute best performance/life tradeoff being charge to 70% and use to 60% and repeat.  Charging to 100% and then down to reserve level results in between 2-3% loss in total capacity per year and high heat (SW USA?) is even worse on battery life.  Interesting read for sure.

[DougG]

Hi All,                                                                                          2-21-21


                                  "No fair comparison between small Nordic countries and even Germany with the far larger USA."

Yup, you're right.  The good 'ol US of A has:

1)  far more research universities and high energy laboratories (new technology breeding grounds)

2)  far more solar insolation (watts/square meter)

3)  far more dam potential rivers  (TVA, etc.)

4)  far more flat pains (reliable wind power)

5)  far more coastline (wave/wind power)

6)  with the exception of Greenland and Iceland, far more potential geothermal energy

...than all those countries (combined) that I had mentioned.

I'm not trying to start an argument here (there is no basis for one).  These are simply facts...mathematica lly verified facts.  You can believe me, I recognize that each power producer has its drawbacks.  The laws of thermodynamics explicitly state that it is impossible to convert one form of energy to another without some form of waste.

As a nation, we can do better...and I believe we will.  Remember, in the grand scheme of the world...we're still a baby (young) country...but we're making headway.

Be well, stay well,
DougG

[kingoffleece]

Yep.  I hope we get it right instead of politically correct-which means the "leaders" will screw the pooch royally.

[AH Fan]

I agree, but. The guys flying electric had to hand launch always. The motors were inefficient and the batteries were heavy. That has changed now. The whole power system has drastically improved. Taking off from any surface is not a problem. Grass. snow, water. Depending on the particular model, flight times equal to the average flight time of gas is not unusual.

I will confess I too miss the smell of castor oil, but I don't miss cleaning all that goop off the plane before heading home from the field. And, the hours we can fly as a courtesy to the neighbors are not restricted by noise constraints. gas is still limited to those hours. Fly earlier, stay later. Even models with an array of LED's for night flying if you really want to.

The main point I was trying to make is how much more efficient power systems have become, which will eventually translate into the practical world where the masses will be able to take advantage.

John Henry

Ahhh the sweet smell of Nitro.......... I remember it well.   

[Rough Edge racing]

 We have a 4x4 Yamaha Rhino side by side used for chores on our property...The engine, strange that its a 660cc single cylinder 5 valve, is run for short periods at a time...Not good for the engine... This vehicle and most  ATV's  would be a perfect candidate for electric power. Or a retro fit kit for existing machines. If I had more interest ,it would be easy to covert it. Need an electric motor equal to about a 30 Hp gas engine., more power than a golf cart is required.

[twowheeladdict]

I didn't offer an opinion on EV's.

My bad.  I interpreted your comment as an opinion.  Now I know you were just stirring the pot.   

Certainly a lot of 1st world predictions.

My prediction:

1. I will buy and use ICE powered cars, trucks and motorcycles until I have no other choice.

2. Even if forced to use E-powered cars, trucks or motorcycles I will always prefer the ICE over electric.

[Gliderjohn]

From twowheeladdict:

If you can install yourself, you save $10s of thousands of dollars in labor.

Tens of thousands just for labor? A less than two years ago I had this 8K system installed. Total cost after tax credit was just over $13K. My avg. monthly bill has gone from $250+ to $72.



GliderJohn

[twowheeladdict]

From twowheeladdict:Tens of thousands just for labor? A less than two years ago I had this 8K system installed. Total cost after tax credit was just over $13K. My avg. monthly bill has gone from $250+ to $72.



GliderJohn

Non union workers I'd imagine.

That is pretty decent.  Your break even is in 6 years.  What is the expected service life and do the panel's output degrade over time?

I was basing this on a few videos like this one.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rCKYm1BJYY

He paid $29,609 for 9.49 kW DC system of 26 panels around the same time as you.  After his $8,883 tax credit he is out $20,726. So, while not $10s of thousands probably $15,000 in savings if you can install yourself depending where you live.  Material costs should be about the same, so the additional costs are labor.  If you add in some type of storage capability to condition the power and provide power during outages labor costs will go up also. 

I do wonder what the additional costs are going to be when a roof needs replacing.

Are the solar panels hail stone rated to a certain size hail stone?  Did your homeowners insurance go up when you told your insurance agent about the panels?

You have reduced you bill which is great.  What happens if you generate more than you need?  Do you have an agreement with the power company?

[Arctic Fox]

But, what were the costs to install all that on the houses?  How many years before the break even point compared to buying electricity from the grid?  Are they still required to be on the grid which has a cost associated with it even if they allow two way movement of the meter?

I've been watching videos on Solar roof systems and depending on where you live it can be as long as 30 years to break even.  The difference though is if the grid goes down, you don't.

My son in New Zealand owns two 10 year old or older Prius cars he bought used, and the house he is building is going to be entirely off-grid.  He is going to have solar, and a water turbine for power, and a well for water, plus a natural septic system. 

Since he is building on fresh land, it makes sense to go this route based on the costs and government control over the people.

I guess that variates between countries, climates ... and even in here .... case by case (depending what kind of heating system you have in house). If you have ''the best one'' geothermal heating ... I guess it would never payback. But if one has electricity heated radiators, electricity heated warm water etc ... the investement can (in some cases) payback in 12 - 15 years. Of course depending what kind of solar system you will also create. Some even produces more electricity than they use ... selling the rest to local electicity companies. 

[twowheeladdict]

Fascinating.  So we can’t ever progress. We can never have wind or solar power ( too expensive per kw/hr ). Cant ever raise the minimum wage ( if we do small businesses will have to fire everyone). Guess we are stuck in the 1800s and have to burn coal forever.  Who’d have thought Guzzisti would fear the future

I recommend reading Thomas Sowell the highly regarded economist on the subject.  https://www.aei.org/economics/thomas-sowell-on-the-cruelty-of-minimum-wage-laws/

[twowheeladdict]

I guess that variates between countries, climates ... and even in here .... case by case (depending what kind of heating system you have in house). If you have ''the best one'' geothermal heating ... I guess it would never payback. But if one has electricity heated radiators, electricity heated warm water etc ... the investement can (in some cases) payback in 12 - 15 years. Of course depending what kind of solar system you will also create. Some even produces more electricity than they use ... selling the rest to local electicity companies.

Of course that would mean you have to be connected to the grid which is OK if you can enter an agreement with the company on putting energy back into the grid.

For Off-Grid living, you now have to have storage capability to have consistent supply of power for the low generation times.  I know New Zealand prices are going to be very high compared to US, but I am awaiting the results from my son's desire to not be connected.  They should start a YouTube Channel.   

[Arctic Fox]

Of course that would mean you have to be connected to the grid which is OK if you can enter an agreement with the company on putting energy back into the grid.

For Off-Grid living, you now have to have storage capability to have consistent supply of power for the low generation times.  I know New Zealand prices are going to be very high compared to US, but I am awaiting the results from my son's desire to not be connected.  They should start a YouTube Channel.   

Sorry, yes of course.

I'm someway interesting about this issue if I will continue our farm (I'm only child of my parents). This is very small farm ... and only alive as my parents moved to fully organic farming (producing high quality products selling those directly to local customers ... no middle men). My mother is stubborn as me  . Both of my parents have office works (first generation) but also this farm as 2. income. If I would continue it, I could start to produce cheeses (not only milk, eggs, salads, crops etc.). For that I would need to make investment (get small scale dairy). Energy (cost) is always one matter to think if you live as north as Scandinavia.

[oldbike54]

 Fellas , any chance we can keep the political and social commentary out of this ?

 Dusty

[mechanicsavant]

What your Tesla just stopped going , on the highway ! Well you did the right thing , having it brought to a certified repair facility . Yes we’re very busy , we should be able to get to it in a few days . We’re very sorry about this inconvenience & you are a valued customer but we are doing the beat we can . Would like to temporarily rent another unit ? Good news , we got your vehicle in earlier than anticipated. Bad news we’ve not seen that component fail & don’t have one in stock , our parts system is awaiting fulfillment as we speak . We’ll notify you  when it arrives. We installed a new component , yes I know 3 weeks is a long time . However the defective component was keeping our diagnostic system from seeing the collateral damaged by its failure . The additional support items are on priority express order . No we are terribly sorry but can’t give you an exact date for completion as it appears to an isolated failure . To be continued !

[Gliderjohn]

From two wheeladdict:

Non union workers I'd imagine.

That is pretty decent.  Your break even is in 6 years.  What is the expected service life and do the panel's output degrade over time?

I was basing this on a few videos like this one.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rCKYm1BJYY

He paid $29,609 for 9.49 kW DC system of 26 panels around the same time as you.  After his $8,883 tax credit he is out $20,726. So, while not $10s of thousands probably $15,000 in savings if you can install yourself depending where you live.  Material costs should be about the same, so the additional costs are labor.  If you add in some type of storage capability to condition the power and provide power during outages labor costs will go up also. 

I do wonder what the additional costs are going to be when a roof needs replacing.

Are the solar panels hail stone rated to a certain size hail stone?  Did your homeowners insurance go up when you told your insurance agent about the panels?

You have reduced you bill which is great.  What happens if you generate more than you need?  Do you have an agreement with the power company?

My system was installed by non-union workers as is common here with smaller businesses. The electronics are warranted for 10 years and the panels for 20. In 20 years they are suppose to still be 85%+.
The panels are warranted for up to two inch hail. They have survived two significant hail storms with no damage which totaled our 15 year old composite house roof.
Insurance went up a bit because they are insuring more value.
KS has "net metering" by the month, meaning that within a month period whatever I produce against what I use is applied to my billing. So if I use a 1000KW and produce 1,200KW I will not have to pay for any electricity that month but the electric company will not pay me for the excess nor let me carry the surplus into the next month. The meter starts from 0 each month. So the trick is to have a big enough system but not too big as you would just be wasting money.
BTW the systems health is monitored automatically by the company through the internet. I was told that they would probably know before me if there was a problem.
GliderJohn

[Perazzimx14]

Of course that would mean you have to be connected to the grid which is OK if you can enter an agreement with the company on putting energy back into the grid.

For Off-Grid living, you now have to have storage capability to have consistent supply of power for the low generation times.  I know New Zealand prices are going to be very high compared to US, but I am awaiting the results from my son's desire to not be connected.  They should start a YouTube Channel.   

What rate does your local power company pay for power put back into the grid not produced by them? Around here its pennies per kilowatt hour. I had a very good customer get burned buy this promise. Turns out its way more cost effective to turn their plant off than to sell excess power company electricity. 

[LowRyter]

So are we predicting "if" it happens or "when"?

[twowheeladdict]

From two wheeladdict:My system was installed by non-union workers as is common here with smaller businesses. The electronics are warranted for 10 years and the panels for 20. In 20 years they are suppose to still be 85%+.
The panels are warranted for up to two inch hail. They have survived two significant hail storms with no damage which totaled our 15 year old composite house roof.
Insurance went up a bit because they are insuring more value.
KS has "net metering" by the month, meaning that within a month period whatever I produce against what I use is applied to my billing. So if I use a 1000KW and produce 1,200KW I will not have to pay for any electricity that month but the electric company will not pay me for the excess nor let me carry the surplus into the next month. The meter starts from 0 each month. So the trick is to have a big enough system but not too big as you would just be wasting money.
BTW the systems health is monitored automatically by the company through the internet. I was told that they would probably know before me if there was a problem.
GliderJohn

Great information.  Thanks.   

[Bulldog9]

That's quite the list... My thoughts in bold.

1. Auto repair shops will disappear...  Not in the next 50-75 years and until private ownership is prohibited

2. A gas/diesel engine has 20,000 individual parts... An electrical motor has 20... Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are repaired only by dealers... It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric motor... True, but many subsystems and convertors, battery pack and intermediae systems/sensors are the weak point


3. Faulty electric motors are NOT repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with ROBOTS... Perhaps, but will likely NOT be repaired, but replaced most of these electric motors are not serviceable

4. Your electric motor malfunction light goes on... so you drive up to what looks like a car wash, and your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee... Then your car comes out on the other side with a new electric motor or component...Perhaps for your Porsche or Lexus EV, not for the average joe

5. Gas stations will go away... Maybe in 50-75 years, but unlikely

6. Street corners will have meters that dispense electricity... Companies will install electrical recharging stations... in fact, they've already started in the developed world...Already here, but can't keep up with the 2% current ownership. Grids can't support more EV's even as we ponder. The REAL future is onboard power generation i.e. Hydrogen

7. Smart major auto manufacturers have already designated money to start building new plants that build ONLY electric cars... Foolish and short sighted unless they are considering other power sources than battery.

8 � The "Coal Industries" will go away... Gasoline/oil companies will go away... Drilling for oil will stop... So say goodbye to OPEC... The Middle East is in trouble...Never gonna happen. Coal is most likely, but plastics and such are still dependent on oil. It's not all about gasoline

9. Homes will produce and store more electrical energy during the day than they use... It will be sold back to "The Grid"... The Grid will store and dispense it, to the industries that are high electricity users. Has anybody seen the Tesla roof? Possibly, but recent studies are talking about the negative effects of solar panels in raising global temps https://www.inverse.com/science/why-turning-the-sahara-into-a-giant-solar-farm-could-damage-the-global-climate I'm planning a Tesla Roof and Power wall in my retirement home

10. A baby of today will only see "personal cars" in museums. The FUTURE is approaching faster than most of us can even handle...Shsheer nonsense perhaps great great grandchildren

11. In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide... Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt... Who would have thought of that ever happening?

12. What happened to Kodak and Polaroid will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years ... and most people don't even see it coming...

13. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later, you would never take pictures on film again? With today's smartphones, who even has a camera these days?

14. Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975... The first ones only had 10,000 pixels but followed Moore's law... As with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment in the beginning ... before it became superior and mainstream in only a few short years...The digital camera phenomenon is similar to most of the personal consumer devices. Music players, radios, cameras, phones. Motor vehicles are a very different category, little comparison IMO

15. It will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence (AI), health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs...AI is intriguing. I work in Army/DOD policy and the ethics and impact of AI is huge, still much ground to travel here

16. Forget the book, "Future Shock," welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution...

17. Software has disrupted and will continue to disrupt most traditional industries... (in the next 5 to 10 years...Absolutely true, particularly in the service industry. Food, Transport, Repairs, Service, people are being replaced every second by AI and algorithms.

18. UBER, is just a software tool (they don't own any cars), and are now the biggest taxi company in the world... (Ask any taxi driver if they saw that coming...

19. AIR-BnB is now the biggest hotel company in the world .. (they don't own any properties)... Ask Hilton Hotels or the Marriott if they saw that coming...

20. Artificial Intelligence (AI): Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world... This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world... (10 years earlier than expected)...

21. In the USA, young lawyers already don't get jobs (because of IBM's WATSON)... you can get legal advice within a few seconds so for the basic stuff... with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.. So, if you're studying law, THINK AGAIN... There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, what a thought and only omniscient specialists will remain...Not heard of this, but ut no frame of reference either[/b]

22. WATSON already helps nurses diagnosing cancer... it's 4-times more accurate and many times faster than human nurses...Eh, this is a BIG exaggeration. This is true in limited sample tests, but not universally. Watson and databases/AI is a GREAT resource however

23. Facebook now has a 'face recognition' software that can recognize faces better than humans... In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans...You've no idea how this is being used across all platforms and sectors, including voice print and individual identifiers. All passive AI right now, and involves your digital signature, facial and voice recognition, and personal identifier. If they want to watch you closely, they can with a flip of a switch. Every move, location, text, purchase, message, e-mail, phone call, etc. It is all captured as meta data. You shouldn't be worried about the GOVT, you should be worried about Google, Amazon, Microsoft and their servers, not to mention FB, etc.

24. Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars were already here... In the next few years, the entire auto industry will start to be disrupted... You won't want to own a car any more as you will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination...This is years away, and not possible for recreational and rural realities. However, cities, new planned communities, populated areas, you are spot on.

25. You will not need to park it, you will pay only for the 'driven distance' and you can be productive while driving. The very young children of today will never get a driver's license and they will never own a car... LOL, you must've been in the bourbon ;-)

26. This will change our cities because we will need 90% to 95% fewer cars... We can transform former parking spaces into green city parks...Absolutely, as said above, this is largely an Urban vision. This if realized would also FORCE people to the cities, resulting in huge levels of poverty, joblessness, crime, and dependency. Asimov envisioned this in his "Caves of Steel" Novels

27. About 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents (worldwide). That includes distracted or drunk drivers... We currently have one accident every 60,000 miles driven... However with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in about 6 million miles... That will save a million plus lives, worldwide each year...Overpopulation will lead to disease starvation etc......Darwin should NOT be messed with ;-)

28. Most traditional car companies will doubtless become bankrupt.. They will try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car ... while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels...Already happening.

29. Look at what Volvo is doing right now... no more internal combustion engines in their vehicles starting this year with the 2020 models... They are using all-electric or hybrid only (with the intent of phasing out hybrid models in the not too distant future)...

30. Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla... Look at all the companies offering all-electric vehicles... That was unheard of, only a few years ago... Battery powered EV's are just transitional, and without severe idiotic well meaning Western political actions, EV's will not exceed 25% of all vehicles in the next 75 years.

31. Insurance companies will have massive trouble too... because, without accidents, the costs of insurance will become cheaper... Their car insurance business model will disappear...Eh, payouts will drop too, and they will still make $$ hand over fist

32. Real estate will change... Because if you can work while you commute, or you can work from your home... people will abandon their towers to move far away to more beautiful and affordable properties.This is already happening, but strangely, Amazon is going against the grain with their huge campus they are building near me. They are planning a literal ziggurat with out door spiral park and building a green walking route to Ronald Reagan airport, with all kinds of other upgrades to the area. They are building 4 huge office buildings on their campus, adjacent to Crystal City that is already mostly empty for commercial use. Many are converting to living areas, but we are festooned with new business and living construction, it is nuts

33. Electric cars will become mainstream by about 2030... Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run ONLY on electricity...Infrastructure can barely keep up with where we are now.  Maybe 2050-2075, and only in the largest best resourced cities

34. Cities will have much cleaner air...A good thing indeed

35. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean, eventually free...
Uh, this goes against EVERY free market concept. Without reliable robust sources, Electricity will be in demand and prices will be sky high. IMO, clean coal, gas, and return to Nuclear is the only way ahead. Solar, and wind are fantasy for anything beyond supplemental

36. Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years... but you can now see the burgeoning impact... and it's just starting to get ramped up...
Perhaps NOT the best solution if slowing 'global warming' is an objective..... https://www.inverse.com/science/why-turning-the-sahara-into-a-giant-solar-farm-could-damage-the-global-climate

37. Fossil energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid... to prevent competition from home solar installations... but that simply cannot continue... Technology will take care of that strategy in the not too distant future... Clean Fossil Fuel tech is the best way ahead unless we are going to get serious with Nuclear

38. Health: The Tricorder X, price will be announced this year... There are companies who will build a medical device called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, a sample of your blood, then you breathe into it... It then analyzes 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease.. There are dozens of phone apps out there right now for health...

WELCOME TO TOMORROW. To think, I used to complain about my parents and grandparents being "out of it."

That was fun.  Certainly we are making advances never before dreamed, and the new space race will only further advance all these energy and AI technologies, but change comes slowly. Carbon based power is still cheap, efficient, and increasingly clean. It's not going away any time soon. Just ask China, India and Russia............. ...