Project Live Wire - Electric Harley Davidson merged threadfest

[Tusayan]

The mass market doesn’t buy two seat cars even though their average drive carries only 1.1 people, or whatever.  They buy 4-6 seat cars instead, leaving most of the seats empty most of the time.  They also buy cars with range to work on their worst case long distance drives into the boonies.  They do these things in either case because the added fuel/tax cost is insignificant in relation to the freedom and flexibility it provides.

I think those who choose EVs instead (worldwide) generally do it for either or both emotional gratification and fuel tax avoidance.  For that reason I would agree about investing in anything EV related - it’s hard to build solid, long term business based on either of those factors.

Where electrification can make sense as a money making business today is when selling to government, market economics is no longer a strong factor. 

[Lannis]

Yep.  If you look at used car values, average mileage has been considered right at 12,000 miles per year for a long time.  40 miles per day, 300 days a year, 12,000 miles.  40 is the right number.

I expect that you've already found the flaw in that statistical logic.   I can put 12,000 miles a year on a car, and never ONCE put 40 miles on it in a day.   Matter of fact, I almost never do.    My car is generally either in the shed or running 200 miles somewhere ...

I can conclude from your example that a man with one foot on a hot stove and one foot in a bucket of ice can be very comfortable .... !

[kirby1923]

Charging stations are as scarce as hens teeth. Even in SoCal your hard pressed to find one. And w/100amp service required for the most elementary station and 200 amps for quick charge, how many houses and apartments have that.

There may be new violence coming..."charge station rage"

It took a very long time to develop the infrastructure for gas powered vehicles to the point it is today, and when there was a embargo (oil) in the 70's there was trouble in the gas lines where it only took about 5 min to fill you auto.

Can you just see people in their parking space taking up a station in a 80 unit apartment complex and plugging it in and walking away. Then forgetting the family wagon was taking up a station.

Battery "swapping" stations probably manned by min wage folks...o dear, not to mention you may be swapping you new batteries for a set that are charged but near the end of their cycle limit...

Maps with dots to show chargers are damn misleading in their scale. One of those dot, though impressive would cover several square miles. Does that mean that each dot represents X # of charging stations? If so how many??

Hummm

[alanp]

I expect that you've already found the flaw in that statistical logic.   I can put 12,000 miles a year on a car, and never ONCE put 40 miles on it in a day.   Matter of fact, I almost never do.    My car is generally either in the shed or running 200 miles somewhere ...

I can conclude from your example that a man with one foot on a hot stove and one foot in a bucket of ice can be very comfortable .... !

Lannis, there is no flaw.  The average miles a car is driven in the US is approximately 40 miles per day.  That is statistically accurate and that is the only assertion I made.

[oldbike54]

 This might be the funniest thread ever on WG 

 As for buying a vehicle for an emotional reason , well , Harley Davidson built an empire on exactly that , as did most other motorcycle manufacturers, funny to see that argued on a motorcycle forum .

 Dusty

[Tusayan]

Battery "swapping" stations probably manned by min wage folks...o dear, not to mention you may be swapping you new batteries for a set that are charged but near the end of their cycle limit...

The biggest issue with battery swapping is that vehicle manufacturers have not found it advantageous to package batteries in a swappable form/access factor.  They've thought about it but for now rejected it for production.  Cramming batteries into every available space has taken precedence.

As for buying a vehicle for an emotional reason , well , Harley Davidson built an empire on exactly that , as did most other motorcycle manufacturers, funny to see that argued on a motorcycle forum.

Motorcycles are in general sold for utility, worldwide.  Re HD, 236,000 units per year compares with 90 million total annual vehicle sales.   0.26 percent is not an empire or representative of the market as a whole.

[PJPR01]

Looks like it's got a ways to go.   Within 50 miles of me, I'll estimate that there are 1000 gasoline filling stations where I can put 600 miles of range in my car in 2 minutes.   In that same area, this map shows that there is MAYBE 1 charging station that can put 150 miles of range into my car in .... well, I haven't got that much time to wait.   Why isn't the infrastructure enhancement being made at a furious pace right now, to change that 1-to-10,000 ratio of charging/fueling stations?   You'll have to ask the people with money to invest in it to harvest these enormous returns; for some reason, they don't seem to believe that the opportunity is there ... ?

But alas ....

Lannis 

  I get it...you're not a candidate for an EV car...no problem.  Maybe your neighbors or surrounding community aren't either.  That's OK too.  But across the nation, there is a growing population of people who are opting for this and it will spread.  I don't know at what pace or what density it will fill in the open spaces...  Good thing is it's not mandatory, no one will force you to buy an EV anytime soon I think, so you can observe, opine and otherwise guess on what the future will be without any negative impact to yourself.  Isn't that wonderful! 

:)

On a side note, I was pleasantly surprised last year riding up to the Wisconsin rally to see a Tesla zoom right by me in the middle of Kansas with Colorado plates, and thinking that the only way he could be doing that was there had to be sufficient charging stations along the way, and he was probably patient enough to sit and have lunch while recharging...rather than what we all do which is gas up and go. 

[oldbike54]

The biggest issue with battery swapping is that vehicle manufacturers have not found it advantageous to package batteries in a swappable form/access factor.  They've thought about it but for now rejected it for production.  Cramming batteries into every available space has taken precedence.

Motorcycles are in general sold for utility, worldwide.  Re HD, 236,000 units per year compares with 90 million total annual vehicle sales.   0.26 percent is not an empire or representative of the market as a whole.

 Then how did the MoCo become so cash rich ?

 Dusty

[Tusayan]

Lack of R&D investment, but in relative terms HD is a small business.  A better example would be Enfield with four times the sales of HD, but either is small potatoes in relation to a discussion of technology that spans a major worldwide industry.   

[kirby1923]

  I get it...you're not a candidate for an EV car...no problem.  Maybe your neighbors or surrounding community aren't either.  That's OK too.  But across the nation, there is a growing population of people who are opting for this and it will spread.  I don't know at what pace or what density it will fill in the open spaces...  Good thing is it's not mandatory, no one will force you to buy an EV anytime soon I think, so you can observe, opine and otherwise guess on what the future will be without any negative impact to yourself.  Isn't that wonderful! 

:)

On a side note, I was pleasantly surprised last year riding up to the Wisconsin rally to see a Tesla zoom right by me in the middle of Kansas with Colorado plates, and thinking that the only way he could be doing that was there had to be sufficient charging stations along the way, and he was probably patient enough to sit and have lunch while recharging...rather than what we all do which is gas up and go.

Ah Elon, I understand that he was a great admirer of P.T. Barnum...

:-)

[PJPR01]

Maps with dots to show chargers are damn misleading in their scale. One of those dot, though impressive would cover several square miles. Does that mean that each dot represents X # of charging stations? If so how many??

Hummm 

Hollywood is about to launch a new movie:  The Dots are Taking Over!   

All jokes aside, eventually there will be more dots...this is a snapshot as of today.  I suppose I could go back 5 years ago and show the dot map and do a side by side compare, but you are all capable as well of doing that.  Just look at the note above on how many units Tesla is now selling compared to 5 years ago.  Whatever the pace of adoption is of the new technology will be determined by how much some of these early adopters want to spend of their existing fortunes or how much banks or VC are willing to lend them to launch and sustain this "investment period", until it becomes profitable on a sustainable long term basis, and they start getting an ROI on their investment.  Some folks here might say the investment will be a loser...it might be...but many other technologies at their launch were probably considered ludicrous as well.  The good thing is we get to see this evolve in real time and we'll see over the next 20-30 years how much further it develops.

[PJPR01]

Ah Elon, I understand that he was a great admirer of P.T. Barnum...

:-)

He might be unstable or crazy or whatever, but I'm not here to judge the man himself...just talking about Tesla as 1 example of EV.  Again, if Tesla ends up owning 30% of the EV market today, and with growth in 10 years ends up owning 20% of the EV market down the road, that tells you that there are others (people or companies) who are willing to place bets on this sector of the transportation market.

I'm staying away from judging him personally...althou gh I do wonder where he gets his weed...presumably it's some of the good sticky icky from up in Mendocino. 

:)  anyway..back to the topic at hand!

[PJPR01]

I expect that you've already found the flaw in that statistical logic.   I can put 12,000 miles a year on a car, and never ONCE put 40 miles on it in a day.   Matter of fact, I almost never do.    My car is generally either in the shed or running 200 miles somewhere ...

I can conclude from your example that a man with one foot on a hot stove and one foot in a bucket of ice can be very comfortable .... !

1 example is not a statistically relevant sample set, now if you have hundreds of thousands of men with the same situation that would be relevant.  In this case, it's hardly the case however.

[oldbike54]

 People called Soichiro Honda a dreamer and a bit of a nutjob also , how many times did he fail before succeeding ?Ya gotta be a little crazy to do something like Musk is attempting , normal people would never even try .

 Dusty

[LowRyter]

It's funny , we built an entire infrastructure to support gasoline burners , and yet somehow we can't build an infrastructure to support E vehicles 

 Dusty

The infrastructure already exists, even rural Oklahoma has electricity.  All that's missing are the service points. Compare this to refining and trucking gas/diesel, building and decommissioning fuel stations.  Quite a lot of recurring costs.  My point the infrastructure argument is pure fallacy.  But I'll concede the limitation with current batteries is legitimate.

Imagine charging points installed like parking meters where the owner parks, swipes credit card and the parking and recharging are billed at once.

[Lannis]

  I get it...you're not a candidate for an EV car...no problem.  Maybe your neighbors or surrounding community aren't either.  That's OK too.  But across the nation, there is a growing population of people who are opting for this and it will spread.  I don't know at what pace or what density it will fill in the open spaces...  Good thing is it's not mandatory, no one will force you to buy an EV anytime soon I think, so you can observe, opine and otherwise guess on what the future will be without any negative impact to yourself.  Isn't that wonderful! 

I MIGHT be a candidate for an EV ... I've got nothing against them.   I realize that things move ahead, and change, and all that.

If the battery problems are solved, if the charging time problems are solved, if the electrical load and distribution problems are solved, and if they can be had for a price commensurate with their utility, then I'd have no problem buying one.   

I'm not one that has to hear and feel the sound of gas burning in a cylinder to feel like I'm a real man on the road.   The 2012 Subaru that we drove 200 miles today to pick up our grandkids sounds like a turbine anyhow, with its flat four and CVT transmission.   

So maybe these issues will be solved in my or my childrens' lifetime, and there will be as many EVs on the road as ICVs.   I don't happen to think so; other people think it will happen very soon.   

What I'm responding to is the constant drumbeat of "It's Coming, Get Out Of The Way You Stodgy Graybeards" and "My Great Grandpa Never Thought Steam Engines Would Work, So Therefore that Proves That EVs are COMING NOW!" and "We have unlimited wind and solar energy, so it's not a problem, why are you being so recalcitrant?"

I don't know anyone here with a real live crystal ball, so I consider their speculations about the future to be 0% better than mine ....

Lannis

[oldbike54]

 I'm not really all that worried about the coming of the E vehicle , I'll be dead and gone , those decisions will be left to future generations .

 Dusty

[Ncdan]

Like I’ve been say throughout this very enlightening thread, as soon as a 300 mile EV hits the market and at a reasonable price, many of us naysayers will jump on the EV band wagon. What say y’all?

[LowRyter]

Like I’ve been say throughout this very enlightening thread, as soon as a 300 mile EV hits the market and at a reasonable price, many of us naysayers will jump on the EV band wagon. What say y’all?

\\

It will also depend on the recharge time. If say, you could charge another 150 or 200 mile for half an hour while having coffee or lunch, it would be more practical.  It's it's 2 or 3 hours, can count me out unless it's around town-er. 

Of course bikes carry much less weight, will probably not have the issue for recharging, but would for range.

I think the 300 mile barrier is close and already available on some of the more expensive EV cars.

[Ncdan]

\\

It will also depend on the recharge time. If say, you could charge another 150 or 200 mile for half an hour while having coffee or lunch, it would be more practical.  It's it's 2 or 3 hours, can count me out unless it's around town-er. 

Of course bikes carry much less weight, will probably not have the issue for recharging, but would for range.

I think the 300 mile barrier is close and already available on some of the more expensive EV cars.

Yea you are right about the charging time thing buy I’m afraid that time limit you suggested is several years away. Also I’m not aware of any EV with a 300 mile range but admit there could be one. Can you offer further?

[alanp]

Like I’ve been say throughout this very enlightening thread, as soon as a 300 mile EV hits the market and at a reasonable price, many of us naysayers will jump on the EV band wagon. What say y’all?

Range and cost are definitely factors.  But I actually think the range argument is WAY overblown (not overblown for everyone of course, but for literally tens of millions of families).  Case in point, like literally 99% of the 100's of homes home in my suburban-ish neighborhood, my wife and I have 2 cars.  It used to be 2 ICE cars, a Toyota Highlander and a Mazda3.  Now it's the Highlander and an electric Chevy Bolt.  Since we have purchased the Bolt, the Highlander's annual mileage has dropped by more than half.  We both like driving the Bolt way better than either the Highlander or the previous Mazda3 and only use the Highlander when we need to (long trip, pull a trailer, haul a bunch of stuff or people).  It rarely gets used, and sometimes sits in the garage for weeks without being touched. 
The Bolt has a range of 240 miles, and the times when that isn't adequate are very rare, just a handful of times a year.  I never even consider trying to charge the Bolt unless at home because the need for that just isn't there.  It charges overnight, and in reality, that takes me about 10 seconds, 5 to plug it in and 5 to unplug it.  On the rare occasions where we have a longer trip we can take the other car. 
Now of course, my circumstances aren't the same as everyone.  But my point is, having lived in suburbia for much of my life, I know there are many millions of people who's needs could met by a modern EV (people who don't already own one).
The biggest barriers seems to be cost, which is totally legit at this point, and range, which I think is mostly an imaginary problem for many many people.   

[Tusayan]

Two cars is the minimum.  My observation is that it’s more often three cars per household, if one is an EV.  Everybody likes the idea of little or no fuel cost for commuting but everybody also wants total flexibility - even when the other driver is enjoying total flexibility.  A couple of friends have bought a $9K used Fiat 500e to keep the total total cost of three cars under control.

Another friend lives on a small island and that works for EV too, more or less the natural habitat of an EV in my opinion.

[kirby1923]

He might be unstable or crazy or whatever, but I'm not here to judge the man himself...just talking about Tesla as 1 example of EV.  Again, if Tesla ends up owning 30% of the EV market today, and with growth in 10 years ends up owning 20% of the EV market down the road, that tells you that there are others (people or companies) who are willing to place bets on this sector of the transportation market.

I'm staying away from judging him personally...althou gh I do wonder where he gets his weed...presumably it's some of the good sticky icky from up in Mendocino. 

:)  anyway..back to the topic at hand!

Ha!
You may not be old enough to know who P.T. Barnum was but on the contrary I admire his skills at reading people and markets, genius, bold and willing to take a chance on his ideas.

But the hyperbole of this  electric caper is...well...astound ing...

I have nothing against electric powered vehicles, they have a place  just like push bikes and roller blades. (like both). 

Time will tell, remember its only a few bucks down and a few easy payments.

:-)

[Darren Williams]

Range and cost are definitely factors.  But I actually think the range argument is WAY overblown (not overblown for everyone of course, but for literally tens of millions of families).  Case in point, like literally 99% of the 100's of homes home in my suburban-ish neighborhood, my wife and I have 2 cars.  It used to be 2 ICE cars, a Toyota Highlander and a Mazda3.  Now it's the Highlander and an electric Chevy Bolt.  Since we have purchased the Bolt, the Highlander's annual mileage has dropped by more than half.  We both like driving the Bolt way better than either the Highlander or the previous Mazda3 and only use the Highlander when we need to (long trip, pull a trailer, haul a bunch of stuff or people).  It rarely gets used, and sometimes sits in the garage for weeks without being touched. 
The Bolt has a range of 240 miles, and the times when that isn't adequate are very rare, just a handful of times a year.  I never even consider trying to charge the Bolt unless at home because the need for that just isn't there.  It charges overnight, and in reality, that takes me about 10 seconds, 5 to plug it in and 5 to unplug it.  On the rare occasions where we have a longer trip we can take the other car. 
Now of course, my circumstances aren't the same as everyone.  But my point is, having lived in suburbia for much of my life, I know there are many millions of people who's needs could met by a modern EV (people who don't already own one).
The biggest barriers seems to be cost, which is totally legit at this point, and range, which I think is mostly an imaginary problem for many many people.

Real world example and I think more typical of what we shall see. Great as a second around town commuter car only traveling under 100 miles a day.

Thanks for sharing some real data, and not just supposition that most of us are dealing with!

[PJPR01]

Ha!
You may not be old enough to know who P.T. Barnum was but on the contrary I admire his skills at reading people and markets, genius, bold and willing to take a chance on his ideas.

:-)

  Actually I was a big fan of Barnum & Bailey circus, so I do know who PT was (historically...neve r met him though!), and we went to a few of them when I was a kid.  It was at one of them that I saw basketball teams riding around on tall unicycles and slam dunking, and since I could already ride a regular one, I bugged my parents for several years to let me buy a Schwinn Giraffe (5.5 foot unicycle), they finally relented and let me buy it at age 12, and I still have and ride it today!

Now an electric unicycle would be a fun toy...wouldn't you say! 

I get the "salesman" part of what you are referring to...it will be fun to watch this develop over the years!

:)

[cliffrod]

Range and cost are definitely factors.  But I actually think the range argument is WAY overblown (not overblown for everyone of course, but for literally tens of millions of families).  Case in point, like literally 99% of the 100's of homes home in my suburban-ish neighborhood, my wife and I have 2 cars.  It used to be 2 ICE cars, a Toyota Highlander and a Mazda3.  Now it's the Highlander and an electric Chevy Bolt.  Since we have purchased the Bolt, the Highlander's annual mileage has dropped by more than half.  We both like driving the Bolt way better than either the Highlander or the previous Mazda3 and only use the Highlander when we need to (long trip, pull a trailer, haul a bunch of stuff or people).  It rarely gets used, and sometimes sits in the garage for weeks without being touched. 
The Bolt has a range of 240 miles, and the times when that isn't adequate are very rare, just a handful of times a year.  I never even consider trying to charge the Bolt unless at home because the need for that just isn't there.  It charges overnight, and in reality, that takes me about 10 seconds, 5 to plug it in and 5 to unplug it.  On the rare occasions where we have a longer trip we can take the other car. 
Now of course, my circumstances aren't the same as everyone.  But my point is, having lived in suburbia for much of my life, I know there are many millions of people who's needs could met by a modern EV (people who don't already own one).
The biggest barriers seems to be cost, which is totally legit at this point, and range, which I think is mostly an imaginary problem for many many people.

Good info.   With my studio and shops here on my property, I make a point to not go all the time.  It isn't the way everyone lives and works, but it is similar to how I grew up (on the farm well out of town) and lived in cities like Chicago (walking, riding the El or bus or occasional taxi) and New Orleans (95% bicycle, the rest via walking & streetcar.)   

I do lean towards plug in vs battery tools here at the shop for tools not used every day.  Keeping a tool battery on the charger for months without using it doesn't seem to extend life any longer and needing to charge a tool completely for 30 seconds of unexpected use isn't always practical.  Cord-free Portability is nice, but unless I use it daily I don't like batteries.  It makes me wonder if the same would be true with an EV that may sit here idle for days or weeks (like my old truck.)  If EV battery life is better measured by a time frame than miles or daily usage, it could make cost per mile very expensive for someone like me to own a vehicle & drive significantly fewer miles annually. Being rural, it would also probably cost significantly more for Uber-like services.  That means ICE would be more practical in such a situation.

The elephant in the room isn't EV or ICE, it's consumption.  I think that no matter what method or means is in place, too many see consumption (in this case, miles travlelled or money I have in my pocket) as a contest.  There will only be a net conservation of resources by default, not because people drive less to make a difference.  Until people change behavior, I doubt switching from one resource to another will really matter in the long run.  It will only shift or rearrange some details but will likely create an entire new number of unintended negative consequences. 

[Ncdan]

If anyone thinks they are going to save money in the long run by buying a EV maybe seeing a good mathematician may be in order. By the time one gets rid of their perfectly good gas burning can and buys one of these EV cars, pays the interest for several years and an increase in tax’s on a newer vehicle, it will take years to recoup the loses. And if that’s not bad enough just wait until the mileage taxis imposed by the state or federal or maybe both, is attached to you new EV ride. Oh darn, did we forget about that little issue,LMBO😂

[oldbike54]

 Fellas , come on , stop acting like you are being forced to buy an E vehicle . Heck , any new car costs money and will depreciate like a rock falling into the Pacific .

 Dusty

[Tusayan]

Heck, any new car costs money and will depreciate like a rock falling into the Pacific.

Most electric cars depreciate much more than the average car.  On a percentage basis, non-Tesla EVs depreciate at an almost unbelievable rate - 60-70% in the first two years versus 30% for conventional cars.  For example the little Fiats lose value at over $500 per month for the first two years.  Teslas are better on a percentage basis, but because they are so expensive they are still costly to own in terms of dollar value lost per month - in the range of $300-350 monthly depreciation.     

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1123583_beyond-tesla-electric-cars-lose-value-faster-than-other-vehicles

https://www.carfax.com/blog/car-depreciation

Of course the flip side to this is that if you're a used car buyer, an EV might be a good deal if you don't need the same utility as others who are avoiding buying them and in doing so pushing down their market value.

[Darren Williams]

Right now I would be more worried about disposal than depreciation.