Is the price of a new Guzzi about to get a lot cheaper?

[rocker59]

Regardless of what happens, the real facts are that the hyper-rich are going to manipulate the situation to feed their greed. They, quite simply, want it ALL. Meanwhile, as ever in amerika, the tail wags the dog and people are in the streets raging over which flag flies where.

The real facts are Greece has social programs which it cannot afford to pay for.  And neither can Europe.

The slackers in Greece need to get to work and produce something people will buy, so their GDP will go into the black.

Sitting around waiting on government handouts of money borrowed/imported from the EU has not been working, and will not work.

[jackson]

For many years, I ran a company (didn't own it) that imported electronic consumer goods from two, Italian manufacturers so I have some experience with this.  When we first started doing business with the Italians, the Lira was around 1200 to the US dollar and they wanted to be paid in Lira.  As the Lira lost ground against the USD (it eventually got to over 1900 to the USD), we never lowered our prices; instead, we took some of the extra margin $$$$$ and used it for incentives and promos to the dealers that we sold to as well as to our salespeople (we had 24 retail outlets).  Since Guzzi USA is most likely a stand-alone corporation, they probably buy the bikes in Euros but sell to the dealers in dollars.  Since they make their profits in USD, they'll have extra margin $$$$$ if the Euro keeps dropping (and it already has during the last year, so they're already making more $$$ per bike than they were previously making).  They'll probably use some of that money for incentives to dealers and retail customers as long as this continues unless the mother Guzzi company raises their prices to offset the extra money that the US company is making.

[screamday]

Besides that, I don't ever remember a poor or middle-class guy hiring me for a good-paying job with benefits ....

Lannis

Obviously you've never worked for a subcontractor in the construction industry.

[jas67]

I dunno, no rich person (including the CEO of my company) ever stole anything from me. The conclusion I draw from Greece is that it's not capitalism that ruined them, it was government spending and related fantasy-based fiscal policy. And they are now facing the consequences of running out of other people's money.

"The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money [to spend]."
   -- Margaret Thatcher

[bad Chad]

The real facts are Greece has social programs which it cannot afford to pay for.  And neither can Europe.

The slackers in Greece need to get to work and produce something people will buy, so their GDP will go into the black.

Sitting around waiting on government handouts of money borrowed/imported from the EU has not been working, and will not work.

Not at all sure I agree with your oversimplification.   That being said, you and others are violating WG policy.  I have done it many times, and I have gotten dinged for it, so I feel we all should be held to the same standard.

"Also, Please refrain from posting Political, Religion, Pornography (unless it's their naked motorcycle) and other senseless drivel."

[Bill Hagan]

****

Since Guzzi USA is most likely a stand-alone corporation, they probably buy the bikes in Euros but sell to the dealers in dollars.  Since they make their profits in USD, they'll have extra margin $$$$$ if the Euro keeps dropping (and it already has during the last year, so they're already making more $$$ per bike than they were previously making).  They'll probably use some of that money for incentives to dealers and retail customers as long as this continues unless the mother Guzzi company raises their prices to offset the extra money that the US company is making.

One hopes, but the cynic in me foresees bonuses for suits.   

The real facts are Greece has social programs which it cannot afford to pay for.  And neither can Europe.

The slackers in Greece need to get to work and produce something people will buy, so their GDP will go into the black.

Sitting around waiting on government handouts of money borrowed/imported from the EU has not been working, and will not work.

Not at all sure I agree with your oversimplification.   That being said, you and others are violating WG policy.  I have done it many times, and I have gotten dinged for it, so I feel we all should be held to the same standard.

"Also, Please refrain from posting Political, Religion, Pornography (unless it's their naked motorcycle) and other senseless drivel."

R59 can certainly defend himself, but I did not see his or others as political, but social and economic. 

Yes, too, of course, the lines get blurry sometimes, but nothing necessarily partisan there.

And, yes, "oversimplification," but no one here has time for tomes on the topic.  Heck, I doubt if anyone yet has even gotten completely through my Swanzey slideshow before nodding off ... and its GC. Even Kathi took an intermission & wine break. 

Bill

[rocker59]

The original post was about Guzzis getting cheaper because of the issues over there.

I think Jackson has it nailed.

Since the US market sees Euro bikes sold cheaper than other markets because of fierce Asian competition, I really don't think we'll see noticeable, if any MSRP reductions, though PGA may use some of the windfall to offer incentives on leftovers, and possibly also buy-down interest rates on financing.

It's a complicated mess over there, and the political side of it would be better discussed elsewhere.

[LowRyter]

The real facts are Greece has social programs which it cannot afford to pay for.  And neither can Europe.

The slackers in Greece need to get to work and produce something people will buy, so their GDP will go into the black.

Sitting around waiting on government handouts of money borrowed/imported from the EU has not been working, and will not work.

No one can go to work if there's no money to buy things and pay wages. 

the Greeks have already taken enough pain, they need to get out of the Euro currency so they can grow their economy and get back to work.   So do the Irish, the Portuguese, the Spanish and perhaps the Italians. 

[LowRyter]

Not at all sure I agree with your oversimplification.   That being said, you and others are violating WG policy.  I have done it many times, and I have gotten dinged for it, so I feel we all should be held to the same standard.

"Also, Please refrain from posting Political, Religion, Pornography (unless it's their naked motorcycle) and other senseless drivel."

good one Chad.   

 

[rocker59]

Not at all sure I agree with your oversimplification.   That being said, you and others are violating WG policy.  I have done it many times, and I have gotten dinged for it, so I feel we all should be held to the same standard.

"Also, Please refrain from posting Political, Religion, Pornography (unless it's their naked motorcycle) and other senseless drivel."

good one Chad.   

 

You are free to report my posts to Luap any time you wish.

I encourage you to so.

[Lannis]

No one can go to work if there's no money to buy things and pay wages. 

the Greeks have already taken enough pain, they need to get out of the Euro currency so they can grow their economy and get back to work.   So do the Irish, the Portuguese, the Spanish and perhaps the Italians.

But how is "getting out of the Euro currency" going to help the Greeks "buy things and pay wages"?   Or them other guys, either?   

I don't think that the Euro is their problem.

Lannis

[Penderic]

VOTE FOR ME! 

Its a trap.

[Lannis]

I generally find that this:

Not at all sure I agree ......

 
Generally precedes this:

That being said, you and others are violating WG policy. 

I have a strange feeling (no real evidence, mind you, just a hunch) that if the consensus of the thread had been some sort of left-leaning sentiment, we wouldn't see a demand to quit talking about it .... 

Lannis

[Testarossa]

An economist I respect immensely wrote in the New York Times yesterday that most of the Greek damage to the euro has already been done. He sees a bleak future for Greece but doesn't think the euro will sink much.

And if it does, I won't expect to see better prices on U.S.-spec Guzzis. Instead I'd consider taking advantage of my retirement by flying to Europe where I can use my strong dollars to buy a nice used motorcycle and tour the Mediterranean countries for three or four months.

Either way, maybe I can buy enough discounted drachmas to realize a lifelong dream: sail around the Aegean for a summer.

[canuck750]

The problems with economists and economic theory is it based upon a series of rules, like all law, the outcomes can be anticipated if the rules are followed. The financial meltdown of the last decade occurred because a lot of people in positions of power and influence did not follow the laws or at a minimum looked the other way.

The current dogma of economic thought is that somehow the Greeks will pay what they can not possibly pay, this followed by the Irish, Italians et all.

But what if the rules are thrown out the window and debtors claim bankruptcy?

Don't think it can happen?, look to the history of Spain since the 16th century. A lot of lost debt means a lot of inflation as the currencies are devalued.

[Vagrant]

you are worrying about the wrong country. some morning you will wake up and find out the dollar is no longer the world currency and the dollars you had are at best worth 50 cents on the dollar. we are the kettle and the cast iron frying pan calling Greece black.

[dibble]

the mother Guzzi company raises their prices to offset the extra money that the US company is making.

I work for a company that buys in Euros and sells in Pounds Sterling, the parent company knows our profit margin is rising and has altered Gross Profit  targets, preventing us from reducing prices.

You will pay the same in Dollars for your bike, effectively contributing to bailing out the great Euro dream.

[Lannis]

you are worrying about the wrong country. some morning you will wake up and find out the dollar is no longer the world currency and the dollars you had are at best worth 50 cents on the dollar. we are the kettle and the cast iron frying pan calling Greece black.

Some guys on another list were saying all that same thing back in 2008; that by 2014 the dollar would be worthless, that some North American currency would be forced on us, there would be a huge depression, etc etc etc.

It would never have come back up again except I remind them about it occasionally by pulling 6-year-old posts back up and saying "Daddy, are we there yet?"   And, of course, we are not.

I don't understand the reasoning behind the doomsday sentiment, unless you're saying it could be 100 years in the future in which case I agree because neither of us will be interested in that sort of thing by that time ..... Any dates predicted so we can do a little futures trading?

Lannis

[canuck750]

you are worrying about the wrong country. some morning you will wake up and find out the dollar is no longer the world currency and the dollars you had are at best worth 50 cents on the dollar. we are the kettle and the cast iron frying pan calling Greece black.

I don't agree, the reason the US Dollar is the bench mark is because the US Government can, if need be, tax their citizenry to pay debt and the US citizenry can, though not willingly pay more taxes.

As for US debt to the Saudi's or Chinese, the US can print money, devalue the currency and in kind reduce the real wealth of the creditors owed balance. The debtors know this all to well so there is no real incentive to force the Chinese dollar to the top. This will raise inflation but it will maintain the US greenback. When the shit hits the proverbial fan all markets run to shelter in US dollars.

[Lannis]

As for US debt to the Saudi's or Chinese, the US can print money, devalue the currency and in kind reduce the real wealth of the creditors owed balance.

The debtors know a couple of other things too, namely that they can't send Chang "Icepick" Eng or Abdullah "Crazy Ali" Rashad over here to break someone's leg if we get behind on a few payments .... so everyone sort of agrees to let it keep working like it is ....

Lannis

[rocker59]

Bring on the 0% 60mos and $2000 rebates !

I want a $12,000 Cal Custom!

[Bill Hagan]

I am prepared to give financial advice for a fee.

It would be the only way I'd make money in the markets because the catch is that whatever I recommend, do the opposite ... quickly.

I do not wish to remember how many times over past several years I have dumb thing$ in a big way.  Two weeks ago comes to mind.

I'm lucky Kathi hasn't shot me. 

Bill

[Oca]

I don't agree, the reason the US Dollar is the bench mark is because the US Government can, if need be, tax their citizenry to pay debt and the US citizenry can, though not willingly pay more taxes.

As for US debt to the Saudi's or Chinese, the US can print money, devalue the currency and in kind reduce the real wealth of the creditors owed balance. The debtors know this all to well so there is no real incentive to force the Chinese dollar to the top. This will raise inflation but it will maintain the US greenback. When the shit hits the proverbial fan all markets run to shelter in US dollars.

This is true, as the stock market dropped yesterday, people were putting their money into US bonds.  Please keep in mind, 66% of our debt is owned by us in the US.  China only owns 16% of our debt.

[Lannis]

I am prepared to give financial advice for a fee.

It would be the only way I'd make money in the markets because the catch is that whatever I recommend, do the opposite ... quickly.

I do not wish to remember how many times over past several years I have dumb thing$ in a big way.  Two weeks ago comes to mind.

I'm lucky Kathi hasn't shot me. 

Bill

I've dropped some real clangers in my time.   One was investing in "Evergreen Energy", a company who owned a process to pre-treat coal so that the bad pollutants could be taken out and disposed of in a controlled fashion, then the coal burned in a plant with minimal pollution controls.

It worked, but nobody wanted to use it - the stack-scrubbers are too well developed and the dirtier plants are being shut down in favor of gas anyway.

I bought 1000 shares at about $8 a share, and when I finally cashed out after the bankruptcy I think I netted something like $0.19.  Total; not per share.   Win some, lose some.   I've won more than I've lost, though!

Lannis

[bad Chad]

I generally find that this:
 
Generally precedes this:

I have a strange feeling (no real evidence, mind you, just a hunch) that if the consensus of the thread had been some sort of left-leaning sentiment, we wouldn't see a demand to quit talking about it .... 

Lannis

You are correct Lannis.   Had R59 been pushing my perspective I wouldn't have called him out on the carpet.  Yet he wasn't, and I have been taken to the woodshed over the years here, for venting my position on similar topics.  I deliberately chose not to weigh in on this thread with an opinion, only because I've seen where it often leads.

 It did get my goat that R59,was going political, as I see it, a practice that is officially frowned own.   R59 is a dam good guy, and he's only as human as the rest of us.  He may maintain that he wasn't over the line, I think he was, but so what, if he was it was minor.  Who really cares?  I still like to think of this as a campfire, where different opinions are always being brought out, it's not nearly as good as the real thing, but it beats everything else.

[Lannis]

You are correct Lannis.   Had R59 been pushing my perspective I wouldn't have called him out on the carpet.  Yet he wasn't, and I have been taken to the woodshed over the years here, for venting my position on similar topics.  I deliberately chose not to weigh in on this thread with an opinion, only because I've seen where it often leads.

 It did get my goat that R59,was going political, as I see it, a practice that is officially frowned own.   R59 is a dam good guy, and he's only as human as the rest of us.  He may maintain that he wasn't over the line, I think he was, but so what, if he was it was minor.  Who really cares?  I still like to think of this as a campfire, where different opinions are always being brought out, it's not nearly as good as the real thing, but it beats everything else.

All good stuff, and I agree.

On the other hand, any of us can tell that, although the thread title has "Guzzi" in it, this is about European and world economics, which leads to social systems (capitalism, socialism, welfare states, etc), which can tread close to politics.

Nothing in here about how to set your Guzzi valves, or when the 2016 models will be available, or anything you might want to refer to in future about Guzzis.   We all know that going in.

So (knowing that), why bother to click onto the thread?   And further, why bother to read the posts and be worried by them?   And further, why complain that the thread doesn't meet your interpretation of the WG standards?   

You could just ignore it all and your virtual-interaction day could be smooth and unruffled and not worrisome.   That's what I do when a thread that's obviously of no interest to me comes up and is being posted to .... ?    I've long since given up the idea of being a list-monitor and "doing my bit" to uphold what I see as the Standards.   We got people that do that very well.   I have NO fear that WG would turn into something that I'd be ashamed to have my name associated with, like some other lists are ..... ?

Lannis

[pebra]

The Greeks have already suffered a lot of pain by "internal devaluation." They've kept the € as their currency so they've had to cut their wages and benefits to some extent to try to become competitive.
I believe their output hasn't started rising yet so I guess they're not yet sufficiently competitive.
They can take further cuts which of course increases the pain or they can change the currency and let the new one find its equilibrium where the Greek wages as expressed in their new currency are competitive. That too, of course will be painful as all imports will be more expensive for them. There's no quick and easy fix here.
As for the Greek debt that's another matter. If they're unable to pay, lenders will have to suffer somehow. But I understand their tax collection could be improved substantially.

[rocker59]

We're letting it run, but yes, though it mentions cheaper Guzzis, this thread is really about economics.

I guess as long as it doesn't get too partisan and political, it will live.  But I have my doubts that it will be long.

I really didn't intend my comment as partisan political, but I can see how it might be taken that way.

No sweat calling me out Chad.  It is the best virtual campfire around, and everyone needs a call out every now and again.

[LowRyter]

But how is "getting out of the Euro currency" going to help the Greeks "buy things and pay wages"?   Or them other guys, either?   

I don't think that the Euro is their problem.

Lannis

they can print their own currency and restructure debt.  It's beginning to look like their only choice. 

It won't be easy.  The Euro is exacerbating their un-payable debt and depression.  The Troika has made them an "offer they can't accept".  (NYT, Krugman)

Greece should have defaulted and gone out of the Euro earlier instead of drawing this out over 5 years.  They should've never been in the Euro currency in first place, there was no way their economy was ever strong enough.  Same is true for Portugal and Spain.

Their only hope is to get out of the Euro, restructure debt, grow and reform their economy. 

[jackson]