The ST market going away? Someone tell BMW

[canuguzzi]

New for 2015, the BMW R 1200 RS. Yamaha pours significant RD money and updates significantly, the FJR. middle weight STs like the MV Augusta Lusso appear.

Are there any facts that show the ST market is going away or becoming less aignificant? BMW has not just one but several STs and their sales are going up. Yamaha obviously updated to sell more, not less because it sees a considerable market in STs.

[ohiorider]

New for 2015, the BMW R 1200 RS. Yamaha pours significant RD money and updates significantly, the FJR. middle weight STs like the MV Augusta Lusso appear.

Are there any facts that show the ST market is going away or becoming less aignificant? BMW has not just one but several STs and their sales are going up. Yamaha obviously updated to sell more, not less because it sees a considerable market in STs.

Funny you mention it ...... but the few times I've ridden cross country across Kansas and Colorado, once I got into Utah and Wyoming, seemed like I began seeing a lot more R1200GS, RS, RT, LT, and Honda ST1100 and 1300, as well as FJRs.  I don't think the market is going away.  However, I think it is somewhat limited to the riders who actually buy the bikes with the intention of doing the 'out West' stuff.  I know my old R100GS was a comforting sight when I was standing on the (now burned down) Dewey Bridge across the Colorado River, in 100degree F climate.  Just something about seeing that somewhat minimalist bike, knowing what a sweet ride it would provide over the rest of the trip out West.

This probably makes no sense .....!

Bob

PS - keep in mind however, that BMW has had RS bikes in the lineup, then they disappear for a year or two (or more) reappear, go away, and come back again.  I don't think I'm exaggerating over the number of times RS bikes have been in and out of the BMW line-up.

[Kev m]

Here's a perspective.

In the US (world market changes things), 50%+ of street bikes > 650cc are Harleys and a not insignificant additional number are Cruisers from many brands.

Generally it's thought that the second place market is Sportbikes.

I SUSPECT that Adventure Tourers and Sport Tourers make up a significant portion of the rest.

But what does that mean?

So if the Cruiser market is only 60-70%, and sportbikes at least half of what is left, then the leftovers for AT and ST bikes aren't huge markets here.

Not to say there isn't a market, but they are niches, McCune niches that BMW nearly owns, but it's a fraction of the other parts of the market.

[canuguzzi]

In 2014 HD sold a total of 267,999 bikes worldwide and 36% of those were international sales according to HD (shareholder report). 171,519 HD bikes were sold in the USA.

Total "on highway" motorcycle sales in the US was 334,000 bikes. (Motorcycle industry council).

According to HD, 36% of its total sales are international (2014) so we know the percentage of its sales in the US, it is 64% or 171,519.

HD sales are about 51% of total on highway bike sales in the US.

That leaves 162,481 bikes from other makers.

What we do not know is how many ST bikes are sold. So its guessing from that point forward.

If only 35% could be classified as STs that number becomes around 60,000 bikes annually. Not a very small market. Not a niche by any means.

STs would include bikes like BMW800s and other similar bikes.

[Kev m]

In 2014 HD sold a total of 267,999 bikes worldwide and 36% of those were international sales according to HD (shareholder report). 171,519 HD bikes were sold in the USA.

Total "on highway" motorcycle sales in the US was 334,000 bikes. (Motorcycle industry council).

According to HD, 36% of its total sales are international (2014) so we know the percentage of its sales in the US, it is 64% or 171,519.

HD sales are about 51% of total on highway bike sales in the US.

That leaves 162,481 bikes from other makers.

What we do not know is how many ST bikes are sold. So its guessing from that point forward.



If only 35% could be classified as STs that number becomes around 60,000 bikes annually. Not a very small market. Not a niche by any means.

STs would include bikes like BMW800s and other similar bikes.

I think your analysis goes sideways when you attempt to classify 35% of the remaining brands/market as Sport Touring.

If you're starting with ~162.5k bikes for all other brands you first need to subtract ANYHING from Indian and Victory.

http://www.webbikeworld.com/motorcycle-news/statistics/motorcycle-sales-statistics.htm

How about Ducati? I'd call the vast majority of their lineup Sportbikes or Standards with 1-2 STs and 1-2 ATs right?

So probably < 25% are STs (and that's generous), and that's not exactly a monster number. I mean their worldwide numbers were 4700 multistradas in 6-months of 2015, when they sold 9000 Scramblers in the same timeframe.

BMW would seem to be your king of STs and ATs - but they sell only < 20k bikes in the US annually.

http://www.statista.com/statistics/419363/sales-of-triumph-motorcycle/

Now Triumph sells < 60k bikes / year worldwide. It's no secret that a LARGE percentage (probably better than 50%) of that are the neo-classics and the cruisers.

Actually I'd classify Triumph the same as JAPanInc. just from observing their showrooms. Walk into any Triumph or JAPanInc. dealer and you find maybe 80-90% of their showroom stock are Cruisers and Sportbikes, with MAYBE 1-2 ST's and 1-2 ATs in the corner.

That's probably representative of their sales or they'd stock more.

So sure we're still guessing here, but I don't think more than 10% of Triumph and JAPanInc. sales represent STs and maybe another 10% as ATs.

But since you seem to be just talking STs... I would think the US market for such is < 30k units, and that's divided between BMW, Triumph, JAPanInc., with scraps going to Ducati, Aprilia, Guzzi...

Now sure, worldwide sales likely increase those numbers significantly, maybe even double or triple. But that's a lot of R&D money if you look at all those brands.

Looking at it this way I kinda see why BMW doesn't think that market is going away - that IS their market.

But everyone else treats it like the NICHE that it is to their sales.

[kingoffleece]

I'm with Kev here.  I wouldn't think ST sales are anywhere near 35%.  I look at most of the same sources you fellas quote here and get feedback from my dealers.  Generally speaking (which is a bit dangerous) ST sales in the Northeast lag other categories.  This is spoken feedback I get from dealers.  I am aware of pockets where the ST market is strong,  but that's pockets and seems dependent on topography.

[charlie b]

I think sales of ST bikes is very low compared to sport, adv and cruisers.  Many who like the comfort of full fairings end up on Gold Wings and HD baggers.  There is an in between group of us who want a lighter bike that is a bit sportier, but, will still give some comfort from a full or 3/4 fairing.

Honda even gave up on their ST many years ago.  Since 2010 they have brought out 3 or 4 new adv type bikes but they haven't made a new ST.

Moto Guzzi.  Given the direction of the company I'd probably see them dropping the Norge.  Many in the ST community want a dealer network to support them when they travel.  From what I have seen the majority do not work on their own bikes except maybe oil changes.

[rocker59]

Sport-Touring is a single-digit market.

Just like ADV-touring.

Yes, BMW concentrates itself in the sport-touring segment, but it's a small one.  Especially in The USA.

The sport-touring segment has been shrinking as the ADV market has been growing. 

The sport-touring customers have been migrating to the street-oriented ADV-styled machines.

[keener]

Here in Canada at least..the AT have taken a large part of the market away from ST bikes...
Most of the AT bikes like the BMW GS , Triumph exp 1200 , KTM 1290 etc... come with all the farkles that any ST has with some advantages as well , and the fact is that probably 80% of them never see much more than gravel , so really its pavement .
The AT bikes are really the new ..ST bikes ..in many ways ..
If I was interested in a Sport  touring bike I would be inline for a AT bike myself , maybe even a Stelvio ..

[canuguzzi]

I think sales of ST bikes is very low compared to sport, adv and cruisers.  Many who like the comfort of full fairings end up on Gold Wings and HD baggers.  There is an in between group of us who want a lighter bike that is a bit sportier, but, will still give some comfort from a full or 3/4 fairing.

Honda even gave up on their ST many years ago.  Since 2010 they have brought out 3 or 4 new adv type bikes but they haven't made a new ST.

Moto Guzzi.  Given the direction of the company I'd probably see them dropping the Norge.  Many in the ST community want a dealer network to support them when they travel.  From what I have seen the majority do not work on their own bikes except maybe oil changes.

Honda gave up on ST bikes years ago? They do make the ST1300 last time I checked.

Don't confuse how Moto Guzzi treats the Norge with how Honda and the rest deal with their STs. Everyone else continues to evolve their ST lineup, including Honda. Only MG let's their ST languish.

I'd still like to see more than anecdotal information, so far there isn't much else.

Yes, there is more to the world than the USA.

What individual dealers say isn't more relevant than talk on a forum. Want some proof? Look at MIs sales of Moto Guzzi bikes compared to many other dealers.  How do they manage to sell MG bikes while others have to ship them there to get sold? When it comes to what a dealer says, the grain of salt needs to be real big and the glass of water real tall when it comes to these things.

Even at some of the least optimistic percentages, MG is a niche, 5% might be a niche, over that its called market share.

If we stay to the definition, all motorcycle types are a niche since they appeal to specific types of riders.

[rocker59]

Nevertheless, the split in the ADVbike market has accelerated the decline of the sport-touring market.

The makers realized that many ADVbike buyers were pavement-only riders, and began tailoring some bikes more towards pavement.  17-inch front wheels.  Less suspension travel with firmer spring rates, etc.

This new street-oriented twist on the ADVbike segment not only appealed to many current ADVbike owners, but to STbike owners, who have begun migrating to the "Adventure Sport Touring" bikes in droves.

There are definitely two distinct Adventure niches, and the street-oriented one is sucking the life out of traditional sport-touring sales.

[canuguzzi]

Nevertheless, the split in the ADVbike market has accelerated the decline of the sport-touring market.

The makers realized that many ADVbike buyers were pavement-only riders, and began tailoring some bikes more towards pavement.  17-inch front wheels.  Less suspension travel with firmer spring rates, etc.

This new street-oriented twist on the ADVbike segment not only appealed to many current ADVbike owners, but to STbike owners, who have begun migrating to the "Adventure Sport Touring" bikes in droves.

There are definitely two distinct Adventure niches, and the street-oriented one is sucking the life out of traditional sport-touring sales.

OK, says who? Where are the sales figures?

ADV bikes probably cannibalize sales from tourers and sport bikes as much as STs.

So far we're all telling each other something that no one has been able to show any evidence to back it up.

Let's not go with everyone knows because that all started with someone just saying it and others repeating it.

If FJR sales are declining, where are the numbers?
ST1300s?
RTs?

I don't think those sales are declining as a trend. If they are then where are the numbers?  Likewise I don't have numbers to show they are increasing but in similar fashion, there are new middle weight sport tourers as well as record sales for the RT so how does that figure? BMW says RT sales are at high numbers.

Not an argument, the OP was a request for hard facts, we all have opinions.

[keener]

Nevertheless, the split in the ADVbike market has accelerated the decline of the sport-touring market.

The makers realized that many ADVbike buyers were pavement-only riders, and began tailoring some bikes more towards pavement.  17-inch front wheels.  Less suspension travel with firmer spring rates, etc.

This new street-oriented twist on the ADVbike segment not only appealed to many current ADVbike owners, but to STbike owners, who have begun migrating to the "Adventure Sport Touring" bikes in droves.

There are definitely two distinct Adventure niches, and the street-oriented one is sucking the life out of traditional sport-touring sales.

plus 1 ....I really don't think you need the data to support this , its bloody obvious  really ...
and that is why Guzzi should be improving and marketing the Stelvio ...hopefully 

[Kev m]

Not an argument, the OP was a request for hard facts, we all have opinions.

Well, good luck with that.

In the couple of decades I've followed the market I've never seen a single source break down sales figures to THAT level (at least in the US).

It's hard enough to get clear pictures of total unit sales from many manufacturers.

[canuguzzi]

Here are some.numbers that say STs are selling better.


http://www.soundrider.com/archive/newsworthy/2012demos.aspx

This might not be representative of the entire market but at least its more than just saying something.

Cruisers and sport bikes are selling less according to the observations.

When the recession hit, bikes sales took a hit. I think someone said the ST market was declining and like any rumor, say it enough and others believe it.

[canuguzzi]

plus 1 ....I really don't think you need the data to support this , its bloody obvious  really ...
and that is why Guzzi should be improving and marketing the Stelvio ...hopefully

Bloddy obvious?

The sportbike market declined from 26% to 13%. What happened here? An increase in owners of standards like Yamaha’s FZ series appeared along with an increase in owners of sport touring bikes like Yamaha’s FJR and BMW’s RT series. It’s all coming down to comfort, and sport riders are trading in bikes they once laid across for bikes that provide a more comfortable perpendicular riding position with just about as much performance."

http://www.soundrider.com/archive/newsworthy/2012demos.aspx

When it is said to be obvious, often it means believe it because someone said it and don't dare question it. Rarely is any backup to that provided.

[Perazzimx14]

plus 1 ....I really don't think you need the data to support this , its bloody obvious  really ...
and that is why Guzzi should be improving and marketing the Stelvio ...hopefully

Even if Guzzi could make the Stelvio the best motorcycle in the world and sell them for $5,000 their sales volume would not go up by much. If Piaggio wanted Guzzi to gain market share they would push for a bigger dealer network and stand behind their product. With a limited dealer network come limited sales.

[rocker59]

I don't think those sales are declining as a trend. 

Sales numbers of certain sport-touring machines may not be declining, but % market share is.

Those are two different things. 

If you sell 100 widgets this year and you're the only player, you have 100% market share.

If you sell 100 widgets next year, but you now have two competitors selling 50 each, then you have a 50% market share, though your unit sales have remained the same. 

Honda may still be selling the same number of ST1300s that they sold last year, or five years ago.  But with changes in the market, their share is declining.

[Kev m]

Here are some.numbers that say STs are selling better.


http://www.soundrider.com/archive/newsworthy/2012demos.aspx

This might not be representative of the entire market but at least its more than just saying something.

Cruisers and sport bikes are selling less according to the observations.

What kind of creative reading and assumptions are you making.

First off, let's set aside the fact that these trends are being reported as self-reported owner information gathered by the subscribers to a pacific northwest publication so they start by claiming it's skewed:

For starters, let’s call it skewed right from the get go. The study reflects trends among new subscribers within the last two years. We park those results up against the same study conducted in 2010 to see what’s going on in the market now versus two years ago. But it’s based on Sound RIDER! readers, so we can’t say it tells the whole story. However, with 63,000 monthly readers it's an interesting one to be sure.

But once you get into the data, the only reason you can claim that cruisers have declined (Harley brand ownership remained the same), is that THEY (like myself, but unlike most of the industry) don't characterize half of Harley's models as "Cruisers").

They simply state that FX model ownership declined by the same percentage that XL and FL models increased. Net = 0 for what most people would identify as "cruiser" sales.

But the cruiser category declined from 27% to 8%. Remember that holding steady H-D number at 22% ownership? We put it all under a microscope and determined the correlation. No one gave up on the Harley brand, they simply bought more XL (standards like the Sportster) and FL (touring baggers and dressers like the Road King and Electra Glide) models, rather than FX (cruisers like the Low Rider, Night Train and others) models. New riders are going for Sportsters while long range riders are going for long range comfort and storage across the FL lines. We saw a similar trend in the Yamaha Star line.

And they do claim that Sportbikes are declining, which is a point I won't argue, I could definitely understand that. But they DON'T say that it's all about Sport Touring - they mention an increase in standards too. Remember those Ducati Scramblers I mentioned earlier that were outselling the Multistradas (an arguably hot segment) by 2-1 earlier this year? They are probably categorized as Standards and much better explain this these claims than just Sport Touring (even if the Sport Touring segment is GROWING, doesn't mean it's significant):

The sportbike market declined from 26% to 13%. What happened here? An increase in owners of standards like Yamaha’s FZ series appeared along with an increase in owners of sport touring bikes like Yamaha’s FJR and BMW’s RT series. It’s all coming down to comfort, and sport riders are trading in bikes they once laid across for bikes that provide a more comfortable perpendicular riding position with just about as much performance.

They're saying the Sportbike market WAS 26% (which sounds pretty accurate to what we've been hearing for a long time), take a look again at my earlier numbers if 60% cruiser, 26% Sportbikes, leaves only 14% to divide between Standards, ATs and STs. If we ASSume (drink) they were divided evenly (and I suspect the STs were the smallest part of that) then that meant each was only 4.6% of the market AT MOST.

And if the perception most of us here seem to have is correct (i.e. that the ST market was smaller than that), then what was it maybe 2% and after doubling it's 4%?

[rocker59]

If Piaggio wanted Guzzi to gain market share they would push for a bigger dealer network and stand behind their product. With a limited dealer network come limited sales.

How big should a dealer network be for 700-1000 units per year?

How good can each dealer be with only a handful of sales each year?

Owning a Guzzi is not unlike owning a Ferrari, Maserati, or Alfa Romeo.  Ownership will require a commitment.

And sometimes that means you will have a long distance to the nearest dealer for routine service.  And, if you are touring in your Italian exotic, and it breaks down, you will not have a dealer on the next street corner to get you back on the road.

[canuguzzi]

Perceptions and opinions are fine, where is the data? What iI've seen so far is a few posts in circular citation. Hardly anything concrete which would be helpful.

None of us here have our pulse on the market. Let spring hit and STs are everywhere around here and here is just as valid and any place anyone else is, perhaps more so since California has more registered motorcycles than any other state.

I'm asking on what basis the claims that the ST market is declining are being made. Citing what someone said in another post is hardly a basis for saying something is truewhen it comes to this topic.

There is some talk that the ST market is declining and then picking apart of a source that wasn't said to be known to be representative  of the entire market.

Where is the source to support the opposite? If you say the ST market is declining, on what basis?

[rocker59]

None of us here have our pulse on the market. 

You might be surprised at some of the folks that hang out around here...

[canuguzzi]

You might be surprised at some of the folks that hang out around here...

Like who?

[rocker59]

NP,

No one is trying to be argumentative here.  It's a conversation. 

We have many industry-connected members who do have "a finger on the pulse" of the market. 

No reason to name names.  Just trust that some of the people you interact with here on WG actually do know what they're talking about.

[Perazzimx14]

How big should a dealer network be for 700-1000 units per year?

How good can each dealer be with only a handful of sales each year?

Owning a Guzzi is not unlike owning a Ferrari, Maserati, or Alfa Romeo.  Ownership will require a commitment.

And sometimes that means you will have a long distance to the nearest dealer for routine service.  And, if you are touring in your Italian exotic, and it breaks down, you will not have a dealer on the next street corner to get you back on the road.

^^^^^This is not anything new or earth shattering. These are all limiting factors and why Guzzi will never be a houshold name or a mainstream brand.

As much as I dislike Harley's they are amazing at what they do. Huge dealer and parts network. Lots of dealers open open 7 days a week + they have current inventory on the floor ready to sell.

[canuguzzi]

NP,

No one is trying to be argumentative here.  It's a conversation. 

We have many industry-connected members who do have "a finger on the pulse" of the market. 

No reason to name names.  Just trust that some of the people you interact with here on WG actually do know what they're talking about.

Not asking for names. I'm just asking for more than he said she said on the claims that ST sales are declining when BMW says sales of their RT are going up, Yamaha updates their FJR in no small way, MV Augusta releases a new ST and so on. Yamaha as a brand has haddeclining sales but that can't be attributed to FJR sales going down unless someone knows for sure and can point  to it.

I've researched the claims of ST sales declining and what I found was that all motorcycle sales declined during the recession and are now starting to recover.

What I can't findare any reliable references that support claims that ST sales are declining.

So far, not one post here has offered up more than a repeat of what someone else said. I have no problem with that but that doesn't mean it is true either, especially when motorcycle manufacturers are moving  up on ST models.

I don't think it is argumentative to ask for more than one post citing another post who just happened to say something.   
 

[Perazzimx14]

Like who?

Me 

[canuguzzi]

Me 

Great. What info do you have that shows ST sales are declining across the market when major brands are posting increasing salesof STs, other brands are releasing brand new ST models and the pure ADV market appears to be morphing more into STs?   

Some actual numbers would be helpful. Someone has to have something more than an I said so.   

My op included


"Are there any facts that show the ST market is going away or becoming less aignificant? BMW has not just one but several STs and their sales are going up. Yamaha obviously updated to sell more, not less because it sees a considerable market in STs."

[rocker59]

Some things to chew on:

[canuguzzi]

Where is the breakdown by type?

Remember, I am not the one claiming anything, my OP was a question. I ses asome graphics about brands but that doesn't show trends or bike types so its pretty.much irrelevant.

It also contradicts the 50% market share for HD which has been cited by the Motorcycle Industry Council. The graphics are estimates, the MIC has actual sales numbers as does HD BMW and others who publish their sales figures.

It is good info for a discussion about which brands are selling better than others.