Self Driving Cars - and motorcycles

[keuka4884]

Hardly a week goes by that I don't hear another story about self driving cars. It seems to be the hot topic now. All car manufacturers plus Google and lord knows who else want in on this. So I predict that within 10 years - maybe sooner, the only car you will be able to buy new will be self driving. That day will arrive soon. The speculation is that after all new cars become self driving they will mandate all cars that are not self driving be taken off the roads in short order. Now that is a dystopian future for me. All the fun of driving will be gone. Safer? Sure, but BORING. I am a lifetime car nut and I enjoy driving. Who wouldn't in a Cadillac STS?
Now this gets me to motorcycles. I do not see the day that motorcycles will be self driving. Maybe I'm being optimistic here, but I don't see it. That means motorcycles will be THE major source of FUN while on the roads. Which spells a bright future for our two wheeled friends. If they find a way to make bikes self driving, I will find a mechanic to disable the thing. Overall though the future of motorcycles looks good. And thank God for that.
Self driving motorcycle. How funny.

[HardAspie]

Part of a larger issue; the taking of control from the individual and giving it to the hive. I suspect motorcyclists will dislike this as we tend to be individualists. Self driving bikes? Possibly, or no bikes. Once self drive is the norm no one will want to be skewered by 600 pounds of high speed machine.

[Kev m]

Inevitable really:

Self-driving Google car hits a bus (really, really slowly)

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0W22DG

[HardAspie]

So long as it is only for the cagers.
Wait, i am getting older by the decade. What will I do when I cannot ride?
Ouch!

[Penderic]

Ok I guess.

As long as they dont have one of those annoying computer voices doing the countdown when the self destruct button is activated!

[HardAspie]

Ok I guess.

As long as they dont have one of those annoying computer voices doing the countdown when the self destruct button is activated!

Get out of there! Get out of there!

[canuguzzi]

Car design affects motorcycle riders greatly yet there is little influence by motorcycle design that affects car drivers, excepting the rare lane splitting law.

The same can be said of car design. Their designs going forward will affect motorcycle riders far more than motorcycle designs affect car drivers yet both are supposed to have equal access to the roads.

Take box dots for example. A wildly successful idea and one that is cited with saving lives and making road use much safer. On some roads they have been supplanted by grooved shoulders to help alert drivers to road boundaries but the box dots are very slippery and are often used to separate lanes along with paint stripes which are also very slippery.

Stop limit lines likewise are often painted stripes and while you are supposed to stop before encountering them, in the wet they just help to slide through. Proper riding techniques would eliminate the hazard but you have to ride over them no matter what.

Self driving cars will likewise affect motorcycle riders far more than we might think because we have yet to see the longer range plans. Some of those plans include narrowing lanes significantly since the self driving car can automatically maintain its distance from other cars. While we'd like to hope that the technology will reduce collisions, combined with borrower lanes, how dies this affect motorcyclists? If the self driving car moves into the lane occupied by a motorcycle to avoid a vehicle in the other side lane and now those lanes are narrower, the motorcyclists has fewer options to avoid being hit. Does anyone believe in a boxed in situation that the self driving car will see the motorcycle as the greater impact danger than a truck? Sorry, you lose.

While we are a ways off from a majority if cars being self driven, it isn't as far off as many think.

Motorcycles take up less space on the roads yet because if their maneuverability end up using more road area. Just watch a motorcycle going down the road, it often weaves more than a car, uses road space cars don't go (in between cars) yet as roads are made narrower do you see those design changes being made with motorcycles in mind?

One way of seeing those changes is that motorcycles could be restricted from certain roads. In the name of reducing traffic congestion, designing future road designs where self driving cars are predominate, where does the motorcycle factor in?

No doubt, naysayers abound, it will not happen or it is so far off as not to be a consideration. What has been said of nearly everything that affects people a lot.

[kfz]

Cant see a full self drive happening anytime soon.   Some big stuff to sort.

Take my 1 mile commute for example.  Just in the very first mile of leaving my house, how many decisions I need to make. Can computer do this....

Learning
1. Its pitch black leaving the house.  I know on my road that paperboy comes the exact same time as I leave. Hes comes barrelling down the hill toward me at 30mph plus, dark clothing, no lights.  Im ready for it, i know its going to happen. So I take measures.  Will a computer learn from what happened yesterday? No, it will continue to avoid him using Radar or lasers or whatever, but one day it wont be able to do it. The only way to avoid an accident is not be there.

Yo cant just programme a set of static rules and expect them to work in every situation. Driving is learning experience. Every day you are adapting and altering your method. Computer cant learn.

Moral Decsion
2.  At he top of the road is the rail station.  Commuters will be hanging round outside smoking, stepping in the road.  Few dog walkers out too.   What does the computer do if ped with pram steps  at the same time as a dog.  Does it hit the pram or the dog.  Its a split second moral decision.

3. Intuation
When I drop the kids off at breakfast club the centre is along bit of footpath thats not really clear if its road or footpath.  Its not clear, but my gut feeling tells me its really footpath, so probably not a good idea to drive on it.  That just comes from experience, see how the path/road is used and making a common sense decision.  How does the computer know?


4. Roadsigns ad hoc signage
Weve all seen the ad hoc sign the farmer puts up 'Mud on Road!' .   Hmmm puters can read these and know behind the next bend is 4" of gloop on the road?  can  it learn road surfaces anyway??? 

5. Other road users/ Defensive
Humans are unpredictable and do stupid thing.  they break the rules.  If your writing the rules for a self drive you need to assume that certain overruling laws apply Like we drive on the left ,etc.  If everyone is driving a self drive its would be easier, but introduce humans into it and the whole thing doesnt work. How can you code for human behavior?


I could carry on.....

Kev

[Triple Jim]

Computer cant learn.

The very first example I heard of how computers can learn was more than 40 years ago, when I heard about a chess playing program.  The program was fairly simple, and taught the computer how to move, and if it made a mistake, to never make it again.  At first, nearly anyone could beat it, but it slowly got better until it was a first rate player.

Heck, I have a temperature controller that has a "learn" mode.  By turning on the heater and measuring the dynamic results, it sets the system constants automatically.  It did such a good job in a water heating application I use it in, that I never made any adjustments to the constants it chose.

A decent programmer could definitely instruct the computer to use data gathered from previous events to influence future decisions.  In the example of the paper boy, it could store the information it gathered from the first close call, like time, location, type of other vehicle, and in the future when the situation was similar, lower the vehicle speed and place higher priority on appropriate sensors, etc..

[rocker59]

Take box dots for example.

I take it you meant "Botts Dots" ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botts%27_dots

[Gliderjohn]

Concerning Computers learning. I cannot verify this but read about some years ago concerning the F-22 and F-35 fighters. Supposably when one of these goes against another plane it's computers and sensors record enough info about that plane to be able to individually ID it at a later time if not destroyed. It will also record and anyalise the engagement supplying tactical suggestions in case of a future engagements against the same plane. Interesting stuff.
GliderJohn

[Wayne Orwig]

They have yet to make a car that has turn signals that work 100% of the time.
We aren't going to be forced into driverless cars for a long while yet.

[HardAspie]

My guess is that self drive cars, drones, robots all will be cross pollinated and self drive will begin to enter the market soon.

Self drive will be sold on the basis of safety and convenience. At some point people with non self drive cars will be portrayed as selfish and endangering others for their silly fun.

Licensing and insurance will be set to discourage use of non self drive.

People who now drive used cars will have two untenable choices: pay the price for a new self drive car or pay high rates of operation of their old car. They will use public transportation.

And how convenient that is. Instead of a twenty minute drive from door to workplace the person will walk several blocks to get to bus and then from it in whatever weather is happening. The route will have many stops and transfers and take a couple of hours.

Time to go visit your mother? Public transportation again will be oh so convenient. Want to get to your fishing spot? Rent a self drive and have its feminine voice inform you that it is not rated for class two unpaved thoroughfares.

You know, I wonder what is the point of life. I do not think it is safety. I think that life is to be lived, once a person decides to do a thing then safety may be a good consideration. But I do not arise in the morn wondering how I might be even safer today, not ponder as I prepare for sleep my great adventures in safety.

Self drive: welcome to the herd.

[Wayne Orwig]

Next thing you know, lazy people will drive vehicle that shift themselves.

[canuguzzi]

I take it you meant "Botts Dots" ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botts%27_dots

No, not the round ones which are Botts dots, the square ones that seem to have taken over, hence box dots.

[canuguzzi]

When has working out problems ever stopped the implementation of ideas? It happens, sure but just as often it does not. Otherwise how to explain all the things that caused major problems?

Working the problems out of self driving cars seems like working out the problem of high speed rail in California. Nothing a few billion dollars can't get around.

[rocker59]

No, not the round ones which are Botts dots, the square ones that seem to have taken over, hence box dots.

Haven't seen the square ones.

We have a few places with the Botts Dots "turtles", but they were more popular in the past.  Sometimes the turtles were pretty big, and a pain to deal with on a motorcycle.

Reflective paint and reflective lane markers are the standard in this part of the country.

[canuguzzi]

Haven't seen the square ones.

We have a few places with the Botts Dots "turtles", but they were more popular in the past.  Sometimes the turtles were pretty big, and a pain to deal with on a motorcycle.

Reflective paint and reflective lane markers are the standard in this part of the country.

Oh what a joy you have yet to experience! In the miracles of design out here, they put those things all over the place. It wasn't enough to get your front tire to slide in all directions, they figured out a way to do what no railroad managed to do, in the name of safety make a lane change on a foggy morning more entertaining than kids shooting BB guns across the roads at each other.

Maybe we can export that too, you know, sharing.

Wait until you see what they've done with bike lanes. Not yellow but fluorescent green. Not a few inches wide, not a foot wide, 4 feet wide!  You have to see this.

Next time out that way, I'll post a pic. A bus would slide on them.

[MRLost]

Saw a good point made on another site:

When a driver makes a mistake, hopefully that driver learns a lesson. When an autonomous vehicle makes a error, all autonomous vehicles learn the lesson.

Ultimately the transition to self-driving vehicles will be driven (sorry about the pun) by insurance costs.

[oldbike54]

 Meh , we've had self driving cars for years out here in Oklahoma . I saw at least 10 yesterday , easy to spot , the person behind the wheel isn't looking at the road , they are instead playing with their phone , or tablet .

 Dusty

[canuguzzi]

Saw a good point made on another site:

When a driver makes a mistake, hopefully that driver learns a lesson. When an autonomous vehicle makes a error, all autonomous vehicles learn the lesson.

Ultimately the transition to self-driving vehicles will be driven (sorry about the pun) by insurance costs.

Somehow I don't think it works that way. When a driver makes an error, they learn (if they do) and then can apply that learning to unlimited encounters in unlimited scenarios. The self driving car can't do that.

Example: You are riding your motorcycle and come to an intersection. A car has approached from the opposite side and intends to turn in front of you. You are both stopped, having arrived at the same time. Rules say if you are going straight you go first.  However, that day you are a little slow so you indicate with a head nod for the other driver to go first. It happens.

A new driver learned something. The head nod could be you just stretching your neck but if you include eye contact often it means go ahead. There are a lot of examples of body and other non-verbal communication that takes place between drivers.

Would the self driving car "learn" that? It might, for that specific encounter and then apply that to the next one like it. Could it apply that to other types of scenarios that differ just slightly or much more? With two self driving cars, no big deal, they apply the rules and one goes first-straight ahead and the other proceeds to make their turn. Now though, it is bike and car.

Take it further. Traffic cops will point at you and then over to where they want to direct you to pull over. Can the self driving car "see that" and then extrapolate from the information just where you are to go? Maybe, I don't know, just asking the question.

No doubt the self driving cars can share information but will they between different brands of cars? That would mean they need to be connected somehow and then that means what  an economy car does becomes a lesson for a high performance car. But then, who would need a high performance car because the self driving car needs only enough performance to get you from point A to B within predetermined parameters?

ITW, everyone ends up in the same performing kind of car.

The motorcycle then, becomes the big variable in the room and if we think that car drivers are going to allow individuals to ride motorcycles while they sit in self driving cars, we have another thing coming.

There are exponentially more of them than us, no contest when it comes to who controls the roadways and laws affecting who gets to do what.

[Penderic]

Error prone Humans! 

Can you handle traffic when things seem a little too fast and close for comfort? 

Rush Hour Traffic!   https://vimeo.com/106226560 

[canuguzzi]

Error prone Humans! 

Can you handle traffic when things seem a little too fast and close for comfort? 

https://vimeo.com/106226560

Notice the self driving car just off center and to the right a little? It has the red logo on the door.

[jas67]

Self drive will be sold on the basis of safety and convenience. At some point people with non self drive cars will be portrayed as selfish and endangering others for their silly fun.

Licensing and insurance will be set to discourage use of non self drive.

People who now drive used cars will have two untenable choices: pay the price for a new self drive car or pay high rates of operation of their old car. They will use public transportation.

Yes, this is the sad realization that I've come to on the subject as well.

[jas67]

.... Next time out that way, I'll post a pic. A bus would slide on them.

God help any cyclist that gets on them in the wet.
I nearly crashed my bicycle on a painted line in the rain many years ago.

[Penderic]

They? say the airliners can almost fly themselves now. Even takeoff and land on auto pilot too.


All systems go!

[HardAspie]

They? say the airliners can almost fly themselves now. Even takeoff and land on auto pilot too.


All systems go!

The very nature of commercial aviation crashes has changed. At this point the electronics are likely to cover for some probably minor mechanical malf until some data goes out of range, the autopilot trips off, warnings come one, and the "pilots" have no idea how to identify nor recover from a stall.

[jas67]

Rush: Red Barchetta

[jas67]

The very nature of commercial aviation crashes has changed. At this point the electronics are likely to cover for some probably minor mechanical malf until some data goes out of range, the autopilot trips off, warnings come one, and the "pilots" have no idea how to identify nor recover from a stall.

The same thing will happen with "self driving" cars.    When the system can't handle a situation, the "driver" will not have been paying enough attention to take over and handle the situation quickly enough.

[HardAspie]

Rush: Red Barchetta

Effin' Eh!
Damn straight!
Nailed it to the wall!

Thank you.