Harleys future?

[Arizona Wayne]

From a stock site I read: "HD shipments fell by 14.7% 1st quarter compared to last year.  US MC sales fell 5.7%.  International sales fell 1.8% with a 9% drop in Asian countries.  Harleys level dealer inventory is so high that they will have to hold back new model production.

Indians revenue has increased 47% while Harleys has fallen 2%.

Anecdotally, my wife and I see more Harleys broken down on the side of the road when we're out riding than any other MC brand I encounter." 

Me too for many years. 

[Penderic]

 

[Zoom Zoom]

Anecdotally, my wife and I see more Harleys broken down on the side of the road when we're out riding than any other MC brand I encounter." 

Just to be the devils advocate, there are many many more of them on the road. Odds are you would see more of them broken down simply due to the number of them on the road to begin with. Just sayin'.

John Henry

[Chuck in Indiana]

^^^^^ Absolutely. Around here, it's Shirley at least 10-1.

[twowings]

Dim.

[Arizona Wayne]

1 time in norCal I pulled over for a HD rider on the side of the road, me on my `71 Ambo.  What had happened is 1 of the screws holding 1 of his air filters on his front head had vibrated off and the filter was blocking all air to that cylinder.  So I get the factory Philips head screw driver from my Guzzi tool kit and he tries to loosen the larger head screw keeping his chrome filter from sealing off air to his carb............... breaking the tip off my too small screw driver tip and handing it back to me, not even thanking me for trying to be of some help.  I get back on my Ambo. and leave him and his SO stranded again.    He didn't have any tools hisself.  At that point I didn't feel sorry for him any more.

[sib]

Just to be the devils advocate, there are many many more of them on the road. Odds are you would see more of them broken down simply due to the number of them on the road to begin with. Just sayin'.

John Henry

True enough, there are probably no more HD's, proportionally, broken down than any other brand.  On the other hand, there are enough used HD's sitting in driveways with For Sale signs on them that the factory can shut down for several years without impacting the overall HD marketplace.

[kingoffleece]

Indian sales would have to be numbers up as it's compared to a much smaller base number.
That said, The Motor Co better figure out how to attract new riders.  And, if you read further it states that they expect fully 50% of sales to come from overseas, which has been the only growth market for them.

[Zoom Zoom]

^^^^^ Absolutely. Around here, it's Shirley at least 10-1.

Don't call me Shirley

ZZ

[swooshdave]

Indian sales would have to be numbers up as it's compared to a much smaller base number.
That said, The Motor Co better figure out how to attract new riders.  And, if you read further it states that they expect fully 50% of sales to come from overseas, which has been the only growth market for them.

Sales increase by percentage only works when you are comparing the same company.

The Harley market in the US seems to be pretty saturated.

[Rough Edge racing]

1 time in norCal I pulled over for a HD rider on the side of the road, me on my `71 Ambo.  What had happened is 1 of the screws holding 1 of his air filters on his front head had vibrated off and the filter was blocking all air to that cylinder.  So I get the factory Philips head screw driver from my Guzzi tool kit and he tries to loosen the larger head screw keeping his chrome filter from sealing off air to his carb............... breaking the tip off my too small screw driver tip and handing it back to me, not even thanking me for trying to be of some help.  I get back on my Ambo. and leave him and his SO stranded again.    He didn't have any tools hisself.  At that point I didn't feel sorry for him any more.

 I'm not that familiar with later model Harleys....I assume they are still like the older carb bikes, one throttle body to feed both cylinders routed through a Y shaped intake manifold? If so...How would air to the front cylinder be blocked? Or is it two throttle bodies?

[Northern Bill]

My buddy had a friend arrive on a new Harley.  His friend was in his early 60s and this was his first bike!!  The driveway was slightly sloped downwards so he had to turn his bike around on a slope to get back out.  During the attempt, he fell off.  My buddy and his friend barely were able to get the bike upright.  My guess is that brand new Harley will be for sale soon!

[swooshdave]

My buddy had a friend arrive on a new Harley.  His friend was in his early 60s and this was his first bike!!  The driveway was slightly sloped downwards so he had to turn his bike around on a slope to get back out.  During the attempt, he fell off.  My buddy and his friend barely were able to get the bike upright.  My guess is that brand new Harley will be for sale soon!

Not the bike's fault.

[Arizona Wayne]

I'm not that familiar with later model Harleys....I assume they are still like the older carb bikes, one throttle body to feed both cylinders routed through a Y shaped intake manifold? If so...How would air to the front cylinder be blocked? Or is it two throttle bodies?

I'm thinking it was 2 separate intakes for each cylinder but it was so long ago you're probably right it being 1 carb for both jugs.    My memory accuracy is suspect nowadays. 

[Murray]

People have for years theorised that HD's customer base is ageing rapidly tot he point they will not longer be the type of people that buy Motorcycles. Is this finally occurring? Not good news as the marketing geniuses at Piaggio seem to be determined to follow the same path with Guzzi.

[Kiwi_Roy]

I went to a swap meet last Sunday, I think Harleys never disappear the parts just keep getting recycled in the smallest possible pieces.

[LowRyter]

ride those heavy bikes.

[Lannis]

People have for years theorised that HD's customer base is ageing rapidly tot he point they will not longer be the type of people that buy Motorcycles. Is this finally occurring? Not good news as the marketing geniuses at Piaggio seem to be determined to follow the same path with Guzzi.

I've quit trying to guess.   

I had all sorts of evidence back in 2003 (their "centennial year") that the Bubble had Burst.   I was in our local Harley shop buying some muffler clamps (they make nice muffler clamps, these ones fit my Centauro), and I looked into the back warehouse, and there must have been a hundred like-new late-model trade-ins back there, as people traded for the soon-to-be-valuable-like-Shelby-Cobras Centennial Editions.

I figured that if other shops were like this, and there were so many trade-ins, a year or two old, with 1500 miles on them, there was NO WAY they'd continue selling new bikes.   Market was BOUND to be saturated, wasn't it?

Apparently not ....

Lannis

[Bill Hagan]

I've quit trying to guess.   

I had all sorts of evidence back in 2003 (their "centennial year") that the Bubble had Burst.   I was in our local Harley shop buying some muffler clamps (they make nice muffler clamps, these ones fit my Centauro), and I looked into the back warehouse, and there must have been a hundred like-new late-model trade-ins back there, as people traded for the soon-to-be-valuable-like-Shelby-Cobras Centennial Editions.

I figured that if other shops were like this, and there were so many trade-ins, a year or two old, with 1500 miles on them, there was NO WAY they'd continue selling new bikes.   Market was BOUND to be saturated, wasn't it?

Apparently not ....

Lannis

Yup. 

Reminds me of Twain's (somewhat apocryphal) remarks about his decade-or-so premature obit: "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."

I like Harleys, but am unlikely ever to buy one or stock in The Motor Company.  That said, if I had a Road King or certificate, I'd not sell either anytime soon .

Bill

[Edited to remove those obnoxious �'s.  ]

[John in PA]

I've always liked the concept of the V-Rod engine.  I wonder what sales would be like if they dropped that engine in a standard bike rather than a cruiser. Might give The Motor Company new life and a new breed of riders.   

Of course, I have to admit, KTM has been capturing my attention, (and my lust) lately...   

[Arizona Wayne]

I've always liked the concept of the V-Rod engine.  I wonder what sales would be like if they dropped that engine in a standard bike rather than a cruiser. Might give The Motor Company new life and a new breed of riders.   

Of course, I have to admit, KTM has been capturing my attention, (and my lust) lately...   

The V-rod motor was made for Harley by Porsche. 

[Lannis]

The V-rod motor was made for Harley by Porsche. 

Well, to be precise, it was manufactured by Harley Davidson in Kansas City.   Harley and Porsche jointly did the design and engineering work ....

[ITSec]

I did a bit of market analysis on this info when it came out a week or so back. Unfortunately, it shows shipments (to dealers) and not sales in units. Sales numbers are shown only in gross total by region.

The statement by HD mothercorp mentions that the backlog at dealers has been going down. That's probably a combination both of the time of year and of the reduced shipments from the factory. However, what the statement doesn't mention (and it's conspicuous by its absence) is sales of the Milwaukee 8 machines. The lack of mention leaves questions hanging. How well is the market accepting the new engines? Are there plans to complete the transition to that design for all bikes other than the Sporties (and for that matter, what about those bikes)? Is the increased cost of the new engine causing market resistance?

There's also no detail to show how they've come out in the accessories/parts area after dealing with the consent decree and penalty regarding the ECM performance benders.

HD Financial continues to hover on the edge. After their near-collapse during the recession, they appear to be returning to the lending practivecs that got them in trouble. It's an easy way to pump sales making loans that others won't, but there's a reason others won't.

The new Asian HDs' sales in that region are just taking off, so year-end numbers will tell a lot more.

[willowstreetguzziguy]

 I live not far from the Harley Davidson York plant. The other night on the news they announced a cut back and employment to below 800. I believe at one point they were at 2000 employees. If you look on craigslist,  it seems like 40% of the bikes on there are Harleys. Talk about oversaturated market!.

[Arizona Wayne]

My neighbor had a Harley and it took him a long time to sell it.  In fact he traded it for a catamaran boat like he already had.  Months later he finally sold that. He wasn't a hard core rider like us.  His wife's Suzuki cruiser sold months faster than his Harley probably because it cost a lot less.  This is all in the last year.  Bikes/boats are big here.

[Rough Edge racing]

  Geez Wayne, you don't hate Harelys much do you ?    The Rochester NY Craig's List is flooded with cruiser bikes of all brands not just Harleys...I see a trend here..Older causal riders might gravitate towards cruisers and lose interest...I do see younger riders on modified late model HD's
  The Buell and V rod shows that HD doesn't know ,or care to know, how to  market anything but large touring/cruising machines...

[Ncdan]

Personally I don't think Harley Davidson is going anywhere anytime soon. They are great bikes, very dependable, beautiful and reasonably priced when compared to like bikes. One Good thing about Harley that folks like us that if you do have an issue on the road, most every little town in America has a Harley dealership. I have owned several however now I only have a lowly little Calvin which I'm very content with:)

[blackcat]

I have owned two Harley's, put about 40,000 miles on the bikes and never had a thing go wrong with either one of them, just oil and gas.  Yes, no warped rotors, no exploding fuel filters, no bad fuel pumps, no cracked wheel rims, no hydraulic cam issues,no bad oil pumps, no electronic dashboard issues, no cheap plastic chrome crap, etc.,etc.

[twodogs]

So many HD haters out there, it is not the bikes problem, rode them since 81 and never left me on the side of the road unlike the Guzzi brand I ride now and talk about trying to sell one. I don't hate a brand of bike because some asshat is riding it because I have talked to all kind of riders since I took up the sport in 63 and have owned just about every brand out there, I myself have been a friend to a lot of folks I have met along the way and I have been a real dick to others, try not to be but it happens and it was not because of the bike they rode. Time is short. I personally would of like to see hd put the v-rod motor in the bagger just like I would like to see MG put the 1200 motor in a v7, oh well just my thoughts on it, I could be wrong and I usually am. rant over.



 

[Northern Bill]

I bought a Buell new in 2004. Knowing Harley's reputation, or at least thinking I knew it, I purchased the 7 year warranty with it.  When the warranty expired I sold the bike but I never made one claim in 7 years.  Hmm!!