Harleys future?

[JJ]

I have owned two Harley's, put about 40,000 miles on the bikes and never had a thing go wrong with either one of them, just oil and gas.  Yes, no warped rotors, no exploding fuel filters, no bad fuel pumps, no cracked wheel rims, no hydraulic cam issues,no bad oil pumps, no electronic dashboard issues, no cheap plastic chrome crap, etc.,etc.

Same experience, and have owned four (4) Big Twins in my time - two Electra Glide Sports, two Road Kings, with a combined mileage total of over 125,000 miles.  No issues whatsoever...

Would have bought another one, but the wife wanted to try something different, so we chose the 2014 Victory Vision - and no regrets on that selection either. (even though they are now..."extinct!) 

Will own another one someday.  Dealers, parts, service available around the world, and there is something to be said for that also...

[Kev m]

I did a bit of market analysis on this info when it came out a week or so back. Unfortunately, it shows shipments (to dealers) and not sales in units. Sales numbers are shown only in gross total by region.

The statement by HD mothercorp mentions that the backlog at dealers has been going down. That's probably a combination both of the time of year and of the reduced shipments from the factory. However, what the statement doesn't mention (and it's conspicuous by its absence) is sales of the Milwaukee 8 machines. The lack of mention leaves questions hanging. How well is the market accepting the new engines? Are there plans to complete the transition to that design for all bikes other than the Sporties (and for that matter, what about those bikes)? Is the increased cost of the new engine causing market resistance?

No for nothing, but they've been reporting "bike shipments" and not end sales units since they've been a public company.

Also the sales report explain the M8 engine bikes are purposely being held back to help their dealers move the remaining TC models. FWIW, I witnessed the mayhem they caused in 2007 when they wholesale replaced the TC88 with the TC96 across all the big twin lines. Dealers all over suddenly woke up to the fact that they had dozens or more bikes in stock with motors that people didn't want because of the "latest greatest" so they are being smart about it this time.

HD Financial continues to hover on the edge. After their near-collapse during the recession, they appear to be returning to the lending practivecs that got them in trouble. It's an easy way to pump sales making loans that others won't, but there's a reason others won't.

I'd be curious to learn more about this if you're willing to educate me.

I live not far from the Harley Davidson York plant. The other night on the news they announced a cut back and employment to below 800. I believe at one point they were at 2000 employees. If you look on craigslist,  it seems like 40% of the bikes on there are Harleys. Talk about oversaturated market!.

Well, not for nothing, but the 2000 employee number was likely at the peak no? When they were selling 300k bikes/year and not 200k/year. Or was that before they built the Kansas City plant, because now they have 2 assembly plants in the US (not to mention final assembly plants in Brazil and India for those markets).

And, here's the thing, if it "seems" like ONLY 40% of the used bikes on CL are Harleys that's a good sign since Harley owns 50% of the US street bike market (600cc and above).

[Lannis]

I have owned two Harley's, put about 40,000 miles on the bikes and never had a thing go wrong with either one of them, just oil and gas. 

I have owned (the operative word being "have" and not "do") owned three Harleys, put about 45,000 miles on them and never had a thing go wrong with them either.

So there must be another reason why I (and you, come to that, although they may not be the same reasons) don't presently own and ride Harleys despite all the improvements and refinements over the years .... ?   It can't be this "hate" or "prejudice" thing I hear so much about, so can the panel guess what it might be?

Lannis

[kirby1923]

Fun to walk a different path!

[Rough Edge racing]

I have owned (the operative word being "have" and not "do") owned three Harleys, put about 45,000 miles on them and never had a thing go wrong with them either.

So there must be another reason why I (and you, come to that, although they may not be the same reasons) don't presently own and ride Harleys despite all the improvements and refinements over the years .... ?   It can't be this "hate" or "prejudice" thing I hear so much about, so can the panel guess what it might be?

Lannis

 My Harley experience was years ago with hot rod Iron Head Sportster I built and two 70's  Shovelhead FX's...They were reliable for what they were...I sold the Sporty to buy the first FX and sold it because I didn't care for the handling...and weight...10 years later I bought another FX, rebuilt the engine, but wound up selling it after a year for the same reasons..handling feel and weight...
  New Harleys are the same to me despite many improvements, I don't like the weight and feel, it's that simple.... That doesn't mean they are bad, just not for me..

[rocker59]

So there must be another reason why I (and you, come to that, although they may not be the same reasons) don't presently own and ride Harleys despite all the improvements and refinements over the years .... ?   It can't be this "hate" or "prejudice" thing I hear so much about, so can the panel guess what it might be?

Lannis

I've owned two HD Sportsters.  Loved the bikes.  The average HD owner is the reason I don't (and won't) ride HD anymore.  They're owning and riding motorcycles for different reasons than why I own and ride motorcycles. 

[Kev m]

I've owned two HD Sportsters.  Loved the bikes.  The average HD owner is the reason I don't (and won't) ride HD anymore.  They're owning and riding motorcycles for different reasons than why I own and ride motorcycles.

I'm not entirely certain the same can't be said for almost every brand.

MOST BMW, Guzzi, Ducati, Harley, Triumph etc. etc. owners own/ride motorcycles probably for different reasons than most people who post on WG, and hell, not everyone who post on WG ride for the same reasons either.

I was at the 24th Annual Gathering of the Nortons this past Sunday interviewing a bunch of the guys there on Vintage bikes.

I went expecting to write one story, and wound up writing another one, because as it turned out, all those guys were the same but different too.

[Lannis]

I've owned two HD Sportsters.  Loved the bikes.  The average HD owner is the reason I don't (and won't) ride HD anymore.  They're owning and riding motorcycles for different reasons than why I own and ride motorcycles.

I wouldn't even change the phrasing; that's exactly why I don't ride them.   A goodly part of the motorcycling experience (for me) is in interacting with the people you meet, not just rolling down the highway.   And my interaction experiences when I was on Harleys was very off-putting, very much unlike my experiences on Guzzis and old Brits ....

Lannis

[nc43bsa]

I've owned two HD Sportsters.  Loved the bikes.  The average HD owner is the reason I don't (and won't) ride HD anymore.  They're owning and riding motorcycles for different reasons than why I own and ride motorcycles.

I posit that about 50% of Harley owners have them as fashion accessories.  They are not into riding as much as they are into being seen on a Harley.

[sib]

I've owned two HD Sportsters.  Loved the bikes.  The average HD owner is the reason I don't (and won't) ride HD anymore.  They're owning and riding motorcycles for different reasons than why I own and ride motorcycles.

I can't quite grasp the logic here.  I suspect that I own and ride a Moto Guzzi for different reasons than most Guzzi riders who post here.  Unlike what seems to be the majority, I've only ridden motorcycles for the last 4 years, I own only one motorcycle, I don't want or plan to get another one, I don't plan to sell mine or modify it extensively, I ride it a lot (so far 15,000 miles on my '16 Stone), I believe in torque wrenches and the manufacturer's spec lubricants, and I don't have tattoos.  And I won't even mention political views.  These traits almost surely put me in the minority here, but I can't see why I shouldn't be riding and enjoying a Guzzi.

[Rough Edge racing]

I'm not entirely certain the same can't be said for almost every brand.

MOST BMW, Guzzi, Ducati, Harley, Triumph etc. etc. owners own/ride motorcycles probably for different reasons than most people who post on WG, and hell, not everyone who post on WG ride for the same reasons either.

I was at the 24th Annual Gathering of the Nortons this past Sunday interviewing a bunch of the guys there on Vintage bikes.

I went expecting to write one story, and wound up writing another one, because as it turned out, all those guys were the same but different too.

 Exactly....I build vintage Triumph race bikes...some vintage Triumph riders are stuffy pricks who endlessly discuss tiny details like paint colors and seat coverings...They look at me as hedonistic hillbilly who ruins their beloved bikes... A friend on his Guzzi and me on a tube frame Buell pulled into a large local local BMW bike dealer when they had new models out in front on display...The owner knows my friend and chatted briefly..He commented on the Guzzi and looked at the Buell like it was steaming coil of feces...
 On the other hand many vintage Triumph riders love my race junk and so on.....

[JJ]

Old Japanese proverb: "A garden with all the same color flowers would be boring..." 

I would submit it's the same for motorcycles...  

Thankfully these days, and as riders and enthusiasts, there is a brand / model / style for everyone!

[rocker59]

I can't quite grasp the logic here.   

What does logic have to do with it?

My response was quite restrained.  I've been riding for 43 years, and hundreds of thousands of miles.  The opinions I've developed have been developed over time and miles.  It's about the owners/riders and has nothing to do with the machines.  It doesn't matter if you get it, or don't get it.  It is what it is.

[JJ]

 Quite illogical...

[ITSec]

No for nothing, but they've been reporting "bike shipments" and not end sales units since they've been a public company.

Also the sales report explain the M8 engine bikes are purposely being held back to help their dealers move the remaining TC models. FWIW, I witnessed the mayhem they caused in 2007 when they wholesale replaced the TC88 with the TC96 across all the big twin lines. Dealers all over suddenly woke up to the fact that they had dozens or more bikes in stock with motors that people didn't want because of the "latest greatest" so they are being smart about it this time.

(re HD Financial)
I'd be curious to learn more about this if you're willing to educate me.

I'm familiar with their reporting of shipments versus sales - and it's consistent with most other manufacturers since they consider the bike 'sold' when it goes on the dealers' inventory. It just isn't as informative as the other number would be, or better yet to have both and see the elasticity in the delivery chain.

HD Financial has long had the reputation of making loans that other lenders would walk away from. When I worked at a motorcycle dealership, we lost many sales because it would take us days or weeks to get financing approved for customers that could get HD Financial approval in days or even hours. Knowing what I did about those applications, I knew what HD Financial was taking on. Note this wasn't a problem with consumers with fair to good credit, who we could typically get approved within an hour, using the same sources.

In addition, HD Financial has a history of both a risky loan portfolio and turmoil within the organization. They relied on securitization of the loans (bundling them and selling the debt) in much the same way as the mortgage industry did - and they collapsed in the same way and at the same time.  No doubt this was in part a resulkt of the guy heading HD Financial at that time, who was from the mortgage industry. This USA Today article http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/companies/earnings/2009-01-23-harley_N.htm discussed the issue when their January 2009 results came out. HD Financial received more than $2 billion in bailout funding during the recession, as well as the company receiving a massive loan from Berkshire Hathaway.

For those who have been concerned by criticisms of the bikes, I'm limiting my comments to observations on the company and its management, and specifically the issues arising from the financial report. Given the large part HD makes up in the industry, the company's success or obstacles are a point of interest for all enthusiasts.

[Lannis]

I can't quite grasp the logic here.  I suspect that I own and ride a Moto Guzzi for different reasons than most Guzzi riders who post here.  Unlike what seems to be the majority, I've only ridden motorcycles for the last 4 years, I own only one motorcycle, I don't want or plan to get another one, I don't plan to sell mine or modify it extensively, I ride it a lot (so far 15,000 miles on my '16 Stone), I believe in torque wrenches and the manufacturer's spec lubricants, and I don't have tattoos.  And I won't even mention political views.  These traits almost surely put me in the minority here, but I can't see why I shouldn't be riding and enjoying a Guzzi.

I'm not sure I can help, but consider the fact that you ARE riding a Moto Guzzi instead of a Harley Davidson.   Despite the wide-ranging views on other life-subjects here, the traits that cause you to ride a Moto Guzzi mean that you have a lot of OTHER important things in common with other Guzzi riders, and that's what makes the difference.

I've told this story many a time, but I'll say again what got ME on Moto Guzzis.   My only bike was a BSA back in 2000, but Fay was interested in riding with me, and the BSA, being a high-pipe Firebird, had minimal passenger accommodations, so I was looking for a bigger highway bike.

I had ridden from home here in Virginia up to Ohio for the Ohio Valley BSA Summer Rally in 2000, and while I was there, Jack Arnold was at the BSA rally and engaged me in conversation, as Jack did.   When he found I lived in Virginia, he mentioned that the MGNOC National Rally was in Buena Vista, Virginia the next week, and maybe I'd like to ride over.

Well, I did, Buena Vista being a nice 70-mile ride over the mountains from my house.   As I rode into the spacious grounds, someone (turned out to be Rich Maund) on a Guzzi sidecar rode up and as I rode up the road, he rode circles around me with the hack's wheel in the air, shouting "Hey everyone, look at this nice BSA!".   

When I started looking around at everyone's bikes, they started tossing me their keys and offering that I take their bike up the road.   So I commandeered Roger Davis' nice SP-NT for a ride, and someone who I CANNOT remember gave me their Jackal, which was new that year.

I mean, how can you resist?   I just HAD to be riding the same bike as this bunch, because the chances of any of that happening at a Norton or BMW or Harley rally are ..... well, low.

That's my story and I'm stickin' to it.

Lannis

[Lannis]

I did a bit of market analysis on this info when it came out a week or so back. Unfortunately, it shows shipments (to dealers) and not sales in units. Sales numbers are shown only in gross total by region.

The statement by HD mothercorp mentions that the backlog at dealers has been going down. That's probably a combination both of the time of year and of the reduced shipments from the factory. However, what the statement doesn't mention (and it's conspicuous by its absence) is sales of the Milwaukee 8 machines. The lack of mention leaves questions hanging. How well is the market accepting the new engines? Are there plans to complete the transition to that design for all bikes other than the Sporties (and for that matter, what about those bikes)? Is the increased cost of the new engine causing market resistance?

There's also no detail to show how they've come out in the accessories/parts area after dealing with the consent decree and penalty regarding the ECM performance benders.

HD Financial continues to hover on the edge. After their near-collapse during the recession, they appear to be returning to the lending practivecs that got them in trouble. It's an easy way to pump sales making loans that others won't, but there's a reason others won't.

The new Asian HDs' sales in that region are just taking off, so year-end numbers will tell a lot more.

Good analysis.

By the way, you can shine us on and green us all you want about your politics, but you ain't no "leftist"!      

Lannis

[ITSec]

Good analysis.

By the way, you can shine us on and green us all you want about your politics, but you ain't no "leftist"!      

Lannis

What can I say? I'm a socialist who knows somebody has to pay for all those nice programs, and my favorite reads include The Economist, Financial Times, and so on... 

[Lannis]

What can I say? I'm a socialist who knows somebody has to pay for all those nice programs, and my favorite reads include The Economist, Financial Times, and so on... 

Well, thank goodness.   By that standard, I'm a leftist myself.   Workers of the world unite, comrade!

Lannis

[blackcat]

I have owned (the operative word being "have" and not "do") owned three Harleys, put about 45,000 miles on them and never had a thing go wrong with them either.

So there must be another reason why I (and you, come to that, although they may not be the same reasons) don't presently own and ride Harleys despite all the improvements and refinements over the years .... ?   It can't be this "hate" or "prejudice" thing I hear so much about, so can the panel guess what it might be?

Lannis

I just wanted something different and then 20 something years went by and I still enjoy my CX. Plus all the other Guzzi's.

[Lannis]

Old Japanese proverb: "A garden with all the same color flowers would be boring..." 

I would submit it's the same for motorcycles...  

Ah, lovely old Japanese proverb ... It reminds me that I have a garden too.

It has lovely flowers of different colors and aromas, and supports me with edible vegetables.

It also sprouts weeds, poison ivy, slugs, gophers, crows, stinkbugs, vine borers, and yellow jackets.

So, come to think of it, the motorcycle analogy holds up very well!      Those Japanese, wise as always!

Lannis

[Kev m]

I'm familiar with their reporting of shipments versus sales - and it's consistent with most other manufacturers since they consider the bike 'sold' when it goes on the dealers' inventory. It just isn't as informative as the other number would be, or better yet to have both and see the elasticity in the delivery chain.

HD Financial has long had the reputation of making loans that other lenders would walk away from. When I worked at a motorcycle dealership, we lost many sales because it would take us days or weeks to get financing approved for customers that could get HD Financial approval in days or even hours. Knowing what I did about those applications, I knew what HD Financial was taking on. Note this wasn't a problem with consumers with fair to good credit, who we could typically get approved within an hour, using the same sources.

In addition, HD Financial has a history of both a risky loan portfolio and turmoil within the organization. They relied on securitization of the loans (bundling them and selling the debt) in much the same way as the mortgage industry did - and they collapsed in the same way and at the same time.  No doubt this was in part a resulkt of the guy heading HD Financial at that time, who was from the mortgage industry. This USA Today article http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/companies/earnings/2009-01-23-harley_N.htm discussed the issue when their January 2009 results came out. HD Financial received more than $2 billion in bailout funding during the recession, as well as the company receiving a massive loan from Berkshire Hathaway.

For those who have been concerned by criticisms of the bikes, I'm limiting my comments to observations on the company and its management, and specifically the issues arising from the financial report. Given the large part HD makes up in the industry, the company's success or obstacles are a point of interest for all enthusiasts.

Thanks for taking the time to detail that!

[Perazzimx14]

If Harley's future depends on me buying one the future is bleak. But this would also be the case for a lot of other manufacturers. Shame of it is no current production motorcycle out there save the novelty of a Grom even interests me. Maybe I've reached a point where I am happy with what I got

[twowings]

I'm just happy to be living in a country where I enjoy the freedom of never having to ride one.

[yogidozer]

Wow! For a Guzzi forum, lot of interest in Harleys

[Kev m]

If Harley's future depends on me buying one the future is bleak. But this would also be the case for a lot of other manufacturers. Shame of it is no current production motorcycle out there save the novelty of a Grom even interests me. Maybe I've reached a point where I am happy with what I got

I want a couple current production Harleys.

I wouldn't mind a couple current production Guzzis.

I think Lemmy at ZLA just reminded me that I need to pay more attention to BMW, cause Nine T Pure looks pretty good to me right now.

I wouldn't turn my nose up and a couple of Triumphs.

My garage and bank account are both too small.

[Arizona Wayne]

The problem I have with Harleys is not the bike but the attitude of the majority of it's riders I've seen, met personally.  They act like if you don't ride a Harley like them you don't have a REAL MC.  Even the Harley slogan is, "we don't sell a MC, we sell a lifestyle".   Most BMW riders have an attitude too but at least they will wave to me on the road.  Very few HD riders will.

At 1 time I even considered buying a Buell, until I road tested it and experienced the shaking just off idle.     Even license plates were breaking off the Buell demo bikes that day.  Then I found out HD riders weren't crazy about Buell riders either.  So it's not so much the bikes as it is the attitude of most HD riders. That attitude reaps what it sows.

1 time some of us Guzzi & HD riders stopped @ a Japanese Garden in norCal and as us Guzzisti were getting ready to leave a gal HD rider said to us, "bet you wish you were on a Harley."  Where I responded, "we'll still talk to you." Her mouth dropped wide open. 

[JJ]

What can I say? I'm a socialist who knows somebody has to pay for all those nice programs, and my favorite reads include The Economist, Financial Times, and so on... 

But the REAL issue here...is can ITSec sing....."O' Canada?!?" (lol) 

[ITSec]

Well, thank goodness.   By that standard, I'm a leftist myself.   Workers of the world unite, comrade!

Lannis

May Day is just around the corner - celebrate International Workers' Day!

[ITSec]

But the REAL issue here...is can ITSec sing....."O' Canada?!?" (lol) 

All the verses in English (as long as they don't keep changing the words!). The first verse in French -- but my accent is classic French, not Quebecois. 

And I can also sing the first and fourth verses of the Star Spangled Banner (dual citizenship, after all...)! Does anyone actually know the second and third? They always seems to get skipped...