Motorcycling is dying

[Dharma Bum]

Never heard Dusty denyin' nothin'. Just saying!

[Aaron D.]

I saw the article this morning. Lot of hogwash. 

Don't even get me started on "real wages" declining.

Only Dusty knows what's going on anymore.

[jas67]

As for autonomous vehicles, bring those babies on. They are going to do the speed limit, they are going to do proper lane changes, and they are going to stop at stop signs. No more coming into your lane because they didn't 'see' you.
It's a win win. Safer riding.
Hey Jim, 7 days to Solstace.
Happy Festivus
Pop

You don't for a minute think that there will be no human driven cars on the road, but, they'll still allow human-driven motorcycles?

[oldbike54]

 Actually the sport bike market is declining also . Just the way it is fellas , we can't stop this from happening , kinda like if tomorrow NASA tells us an asteroid is on a collision course with the planet, all you can do is have fun until it gets here .

 Dusty

[Lannis]

Autonomous vehicles, everyone being so engrossed in the small hand held screen, along with how sedentary our society has become all point to that.

Movies are OK, but they're just movies.   Will the future be Wall-E?   The Terminator?   The Matrix?   Mad Max?   Waterworld?    Will the Eugenics Wars be fought in 1992 with the rise of Khan Noonian Singh?

I sometimes feel like our "predictions of the future" are like this French prediction from 1900 of what a year 2000 barbershop will look like:



The real future is one we're not going to be able to predict.   Too much chaos.

And (as I've mentioned before) general use of autonomous vehicles will start soon after general use of autonomous airliners.    When an A380 rolls up to the gate, 400 of us get on, it starts up, rolls down the taxiway, lines up on the runway, takes off, flies to Singapore, lands, and lets me off ...

... and NO ONE was ever in the cockpit ...

then we'll know the technology for autonomous cars everywhere is ready for prime time.   Large aircraft pilots here can comment on how likely they think this will be, given that it is MUCH simpler to program an airliner in controlled airspace under the uncrowded conditions under which they fly than to control a car in Washington DC ....

Lannis

[Aaron D.]

I think autonomous aircraft may happen sooner than we all think.

Speaking of the future, sometimes it creeps up when no one is looking. All the talk of upping minimum wages so we can all be rich got the newsies talking about the coming automation in fast-food, and all the talk was about burger flipping robots..

But all the new McDonalds have brand new ordering kiosks. All of them!

[Pop]

Dusty, if NASA knew of an asteroid on collision course, they would say nothing. Why! Because we would all just have fun.
Pop

[Orange Guzzi]

In my great-grandfather's day, 100 years ago, you could buy a new or used motorcycle and ride all you wanted, on public roads or public land.   Gasoline was available for sale on the side of the road, shops were available to work on them, or you could work on them yourself.   I'm sure there were articles in the papers of the day predicting "the demise of motorcycling" based on the coming of airships or running out of petroleum.

In my grandfather's day, 75 years ago, you could buy a new or used motorcycle and ride all you wanted, on public roads or public land.   Gasoline was available for sale on the side of the road, shops were available to work on them, or you could work on them yourself.   I'm sure there were articles in the papers of the day predicting "the demise of motorcycling" based on the coming of new car models or running out of petroleum.

In my father's day, 50 years ago, you could buy a new or used motorcycle and ride all you wanted, on public roads or public land.   Gasoline was available for sale on the side of the road, shops were available to work on them, or you could work on them yourself.   I'm sure there were articles in the papers of the day predicting "the demise of motorcycling" based on the coming of personal backpack helicopters or running out of petroleum.

In my younger days, 25 years ago, you could buy a new or used motorcycle and ride all you wanted, on public roads or public land.   Gasoline was available for sale on the side of the road, shops were available to work on them, or you could work on them yourself.   I KNOW there were articles in the papers of the day predicting "the demise of motorcycling" based on legislation, technology, or running out of petroleum.

And now the exact same thing today.   Anyone can buy a new or used motorcycle, and ride all they want, all day long, all over the world.   Gasoline is available everywhere, cheaper than it's ever been, petroleum reserves are higher than they've ever been, and there are more motorcycles in the country than there have ever been.   Shops are available to work on the bikes, or you can work on them yourself.

And people today, 25 years from now, 50 years from now, 75 years from now, and 100 years from now, people with nothing else to do, and who know that no one will ever go back and check the accuracy of their predictions .... are predicting "The Demise Of Motorcycling".

The wheel turns and the same old spoke keeps coming up ....

Lannis

So, you think this is just a publicity and marketing plan/scam?  Lot of money on the line.  Big Names.  And not showing signs of improvements in nearly 10 years.  I don't think anyone said it is over, but it is going through a major model and powerplant shift.

 I see the electric motorcycle/bicycle market booming in the next few short years.  The American Dream is a lower than average wage job and company owned sleeper cell as compensation.  Cheap electric commuter bikes will be easy to move in and out of the sleeper cell and charge overnight.  Hang out with the younger crowd as I do because of my college age kids.  I am on my last years because of age and health.  I have plenty of riding equipment to meet my needs well into the future.  Even though I can afford to buy any modern bike available.   Good essay  though. 

[Orange Guzzi]

There is something to be said about personal risk and safety by having a flight crew on board.  A mind numb gamer flying a passenger plane from their laptop just does not make me comfortable.  There is a big difference  flight attitude  with your ass at 18 inches above the floor operating an airplane and 40,000 feet.   

[oldbike54]

 My understanding is that we have been capable of producing flying cars for years , the problem is licensing and insurance .

 As for what will happen with motorbiking , for years the market has been trending down , out generation was the peak , we are all getting old , young folks as a whole don't care about the same things we did . Like I said earlier , don't worry about what you can't change , enjoy your life .

 Dusty

[Chuck in Indiana]

Uhh, airliners are much more automated now than you think.

[Chuck in Indiana]

My understanding is that we have been capable of producing flying cars for years , the problem is licensing and insurance .

 As for what will happen with motorbiking , for years the market has been trending down , out generation was the peak , we are all getting old , young folks as a whole don't care about the same things we did . Like I said earlier , don't worry about what you can't change , enjoy your life .

 Dusty

Yep, sucessful flying cars have been built since the 20s. Insurance companys with good reason won't touch them.

[Lannis]

Uhh, airliners are much more automated now than you think.

I know how automated they are.   

But there is a HUGE HUGE difference between a pair of pilots climbing into the seats, letting the computer take off, fly to the destination, land, and taxi WHILE THE P.I.C. MONITORS IT ALL ....

.... and letting the airplane do it all by itself.   

Certainly we may say "It will happen sooner than you think".     Well, go on then ...

Lannis

[Arizona Wayne]

This article reminds me of "global warming" yes it's happening, but what do expect with 6 billion people. Yes there are fewer over the road guys, but the crotch rocketeers are booming. As for autonomous vehicles, bring those babies on. They are going to do the speed limit, they are going to do proper lane changes, and they are going to stop at stop signs. No more coming into your lane because they didn't 'see' you.
It's a win win. Safer riding.
Hey Jim, 7 days to Solstace.
Happy Festivus
Pop

If global warming is happening then why in Sacramento, Ca. where I went to high school in `59-`61 every summer it would get up to 112-116F for a week and since I moved back there in `1983-`2010 it never got over 105-107F to now any time in the summer ??

[Devildog]

No one has mentioned market saturation. Many of us have several bikes, and see no reason to buy another one. I don't know anyone who is planning a new bike purchase in the near future.

[Gliderjohn]

From Devildog:

No one has mentioned market saturation. Many of us have several bikes, and see no reason to buy another one. I don't know anyone who is planning a new bike purchase in the near future.

But that is where good marketing comes in. Most of us may not NEED a newer or additional bike but it is marketing's job to make us WANT it and to then buy it.
GliderJohn

[Kev m]

If global warming is happening then why in Sacramento, Ca. where I went to high school in `59-`61 every summer it would get up to 112-116F for a week and since I moved back there in `1983-`2010 it never got over 105-107F to now any time in the summer ??

You go understand that just because the average temp is rising the result isn't that all regions see the same. The result includes changes in weather patterns, some areas do indeed get a little cooler, but others see new highs heretofore not seen in recorded history.

[Kev m]

No one has mentioned market saturation. Many of us have several bikes, and see no reason to buy another one. I don't know anyone who is planning a new bike purchase in the near future.

I actually agree that the biggest issue is simply market saturation. That said, in ALWAYS planning another new bike....

[Scud]

Vehicles last longer than they used to. When they last longer, we need to produce and sell fewer vehicles. My 1997 F250 (with 7.3 diesel) could potentially last me another 20 years. My K75s will probably never die. If all vehicle industries shrunk a bit it would probably be good for us - the big "us" as in the planet. Shrinking is not dying. The last century has seen continued growth as the measure of success, but I think we are re-evaluating growth as a goal unto itself. Not all growth is good growth - ask some big cities, cancer survivors, and pertri dishes.

On autonomous cars... I think there could be a fun transition window for riding when the majority of cars are autonomous and are looking out for motorcycles. Personally, I think rider-controlled motorcycles will be allowed even if all other vehicles move to automated only. It would seem that a very long transition period would be required so normal cars could finish out their useful life and not become instantly value-less.

FWIW - I am seriously considering a new bike. Africa Twin or Husqvarna 701 Enduro.  But dammit... is that V85 for real or not? I'd have to consider that too.

And as for younger and female riders. I was talking with my daughters and some of their friends. They said they didn't like scooters, but like the idea of having motorcycles... but they agreed that learning to shift manually was intimidating. Young people don't learn the basic principles of shifting. I think that a well-marketed, fully automatic motorcycle could attract some new riders.

[Lannis]

I actually agree that the biggest issue is simply market saturation. That said, in ALWAYS planning another new bike....

I keep thinking that's true, but it never works out that way.

One wrong prediction I made (and all my predictions are in writing and verifiable) is that the market for Harley-Davidsons would crater after the 2003 100-year-anniversary hype and the first 250,000 or so sale year.   

Our dealer in 2005 had 30 new bikes on the floor, and probably 100 as-new trade-ins in the back, lined up like rows of corn.   I didn't think there was ANY WAY that more people could be convinced not only to buy all the new bikes coming along, but the ones on the floor AND the trade-ins ....

... but I was wrong.   The marketeers reached down and grabbed another gear and the beat went on, drums keep pounding rhythm to the brain .... and on and on ....

Maybe it HAS reached that limit now.   No one's gone broke yet overestimating the disposable income of Americans when there's something they've been told they really want ... !

Lannis

[Kev m]

Well Lannis, if we're just talking about HAD the simple fact that their sales have declined back to the 250k range after a number of years in the 300-320k range would seem to point at market saturation eh?

[ohiorider]

Don't you just f'n hate it when you take time to compose a reasonable post, only to sluff a key and have it go off into lala land and not post?  And get lost.  At that point in time, I refuse to try to reconstruct the original.  No great loss to the forum, but it is frustrating.

Bob

[oldbike54]

 Bob , what key are you hitting , my computer doesn't seem to have that key 

 Dusty

[Pop]

Bob,
One in three posts never make. In cyberspace somewhere.
Pop

[Scud]

Don't you just f'n hate it when you take time to compose a reasonable post, only to sluff a key and have it go off into lala land and not post?  And get lost.  At that point in time, I refuse to try to reconstruct the original.  No great loss to the forum, but it is frustrating.

Bob

Ha - I hate it when I accidentally close a window or hit the browser's back button and I lose my "brilliant" composition.

[twowings]

When the cyber drones start hunting us all down for operating an illegal internal combustion vehicle, I vote we make our last desperate stand on the summit of Beartooth Highway...

[kidneb]

ok- ok- motorcycling is dying, but wont they still be renting out some small bikes for special events like weddings and such ? 





   /Ben

[Lannis]

Don't you just f'n hate it when you take time to compose a reasonable post ....
Bob

Don't know, never even tried that.   

[Chesterfield]

This writer wrote about the demise 8 years ago. He got it right and I believe the cell phone is why also.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/opinion/sunday/is-the-iphone-replacing-the-motorcycle.html?mtrref=www.google.com&gwh=A2C2D1C206E8B5CA5688FDABFBAD2EB3&gwt=pay&assetType=opinion

[bad Chad]

I really wish otherwise, but I can find no logical reason to be optimistic about the future of man.  We are stacking the deck massively against us, that even given our ability to adapt, I have serious reservations that we can navigate the next 200 years.   The species may make it, maybe, but I suspect there will be Huge losses along the way.