In 25 years, who...

[willowstreetguzziguy]

Recently went to view a private collection of antique automobiles from the 1930's. Beautifully restored cars. I enjoyed looking at them but not necessarily my type. I tend to enjoy cars from my youth in the 50's thru 70's. I think most people enjoy cars and vehicles from their younger times. There are exceptions I guess.

So this got me to thinking... in 25 years, who is going to be collecting these early 20th century cars? People who are now in their 30's - 50's? I don't see it. You have the Millenials growing up and some don't even have an interest in driving, let alone cherishing these cars. Maybe these cars will all be in museums but who will go see them in 25 years?

The muscle cars we see on TV going for hundreds of thousands of dollars, some millions, are they going to continue to appreciate in value and will anyone who never lived in the 1960's pay that kind of money? Do they have a connection with the? I wonder if the audience will be out there in 25 years for all these collectable vehicles. If not, these high priced vehicles could potentially plummet greatly in value if the audience has passed on.   

[yogidozer]

JMO but with all the technology we have now, they cannot make a really attractive car/truck.
original vettes, t-birds, step-side chey pu, triumph tr-6, the list goes on.
you would be hard press to tell a Subaru, from a Toyota or Kia, Hyundai, etc.

[willowstreetguzziguy]

JMO but with all the technology we have now, they cannot make a really attractive car/truck.
original vettes, t-birds, step-side chey pu, triumph tr-6, the list goes on.
you would be hard press to tell a Subaru, from a Toyota or Kia, Hyundai, etc.

But if there's no audience, there is no value. Will the audience be there in 25 years?

[oldbike54]

 That high dollar classic car market is driven by the baby boomer generation , once we are gone some of those cars will become nothing but dinosaurs . It isn't the cars but the memories that they are associated with that make them sell for so much . No idea who will still be willing to collect cars in 25 years , there will likely be a few people interested , maybe someone currently 25 who really wants something like a WRX or a modern Vette but can't afford one at the moment .

 Dusty

[yogidozer]

That high dollar classic car market is driven by the baby boomer generation , once we are gone some of those cars will become nothing but dinosaurs . It isn't the cars but the memories that they are associated with that make them sell for so much . No idea who will still be willing to collect cars in 25 years , there will likely be a few people interested , maybe someone currently 25 who really wants something like a WRX or a modern Vette but can't afford one at the moment .

 Dusty

OK what is a better looking car. two similar types. Triumph TR-6



real wood dash



or mazda miata

[willowstreetguzziguy]

I think present buyers buy for the memories and the investment. Those same cars will not have the “buyers with the memories” of those cars and my not be going up in value. I believe the audiance with appreciation for those cars will drastically shrink in 25 years drastically reducing their value.

[oldbike54]

 No argument Yogi , but which one would you trust not breaking down crossing the Mojave 

 Consider this , if you wanted a Miata at 17 in say 1994 , and now cab afford to buy a nice one , would the Miata be just as desirable as a TR4 is to that same 17 year old from say 1966 who is now 69 years old ?

 Dusty

[yogidozer]

I also believe this is just one of many ways times/people have changed.
no longer is an attractive car desirable, as it once was.
for most, it's just a tool, getting you from point A, to point B.
for a few, a BMW, Mercedes, is just a status symbol to impress others you think are your friends.
gone are the days where you spend all day, washing and waxing because YOU like the way your car looks.   

[yogidozer]

No argument Yogi , but which one would you trust not breaking down crossing the Mojave 

 Consider this , if you wanted a Miata at 17 in say 1994 , and now cab afford to buy a nice one , would the Miata be just as desirable as a TR4 is to that same 17 year old from say 1966 who is now 69 years old ?

 Dusty

honestly, I've never been worried about break downs with older cars/trucks. I'm old school, points, condensers are no problem.
now if a computer gives me trouble......SHELDO N!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[oldbike54]

I also believe this is just one of many ways times/people have changed.
no longer is an attractive car desirable, as it once was.
for most, it's just a tool, getting you from point A, to point B.
for a few, a BMW, Mercedes, is just a status symbol to impress others you think are your friends.
gone are the days where you spend all day, washing and waxing because YOU like the way your car looks.   

 Oddly enough I never performed those activities , even back in 1972 a car was just a car . I did own a couple of hot rods , but cars won't lean or wheelie 

 Dusty

[analog kid]

But if there's no audience, there is no value. Will the audience be there in 25 years?

I've often wondered the same, and did last night while riding behind a super clean late 1950s Ford Fairlane.
A weekly Saturday night car meet had just ended  and they were all leaving, I pulled out of the restaurant next door. 
There were young people there - looked like a good age mix actually, but many of the old guys were in rough shape.
The Fairlane pulls off and later I pass a 1920s Ford for sale in a driveway. I'd love to own either, but it'll never happen. Got my hands full with bikes and 2 modern cars.

As far as generations and liking what you grew up with; I was born late 60s and still want a 50s Vincent. I have a mild interest in 1920s - 30s Brit bikes. I'd love a 4-cyl Henderson , Ace or Indian,  but even the wrecks are priced out of my reach now.

I used to be a member of a vintage bike club. The average owner age was....high. There's a lot of nice old bikes hidden away. I hope there are enough people out there with the resources to buy and ride them all when the current caretakers pass on.

[yogidozer]

Oddly enough I never performed those activities , even back in 1972 a car was just a car . I did own a couple of hot rods , but cars won't lean or wheelie 

 Dusty

I had a 1970 Mustang, I put a '71 429 Super Cobra Jet in. 4.57 rear gears, 2-4 barrels, zoom clutch, vertical gate shifter, etc, etc
It WOULD wheelie!

[oldbike54]

I had a 1970 Mustang, I put a '71 429 Super Cobra Jet in. 4.57 rear gears, 2-4 barrels, zoom clutch, vertical gate shifter, etc, etc
It WOULD wheelie!

 

 Yeah , but how could you see where you were going ?

 Dusty

[canuck750]

The aging baby boomer with extra money in hand and fond memories of his youth lusting over a muscle car have driven up the price of the muscle car to absurd heights. There is nothing particularly rare about a car they made tens of thousands of but there were an inordinate number of males born in the boom and an equally large number of cars made for them. If only 1/10th of the muscle cars have survived that is a huge number of cars to pass on in the future. Demand is driven by nostalgia and once the personal connection to these cars is gone the demand will plummet and prices will follow. Some of the truly rare cars of the period will hold their prices, I don't see a 289 or 427 Shelby Cobra price coming down in the future but there are a whole lot of 69 and 70 Mustangs that are not going to continue to fetch $80K.

The same will be true for motorcycles, a Kawasaki Z1 A or B is nice bike, same for a Honda CB 750, but they made thousands and thousands of them, there just won't be the demand to absorb them once the current owners reach and age to move them on. I am seeing a lot of early Norton Commando's for sale and the prices have been going down, not up.

[yogidozer]

I've often wondered the same, and did last night while riding behind a super clean late 1950s Ford Fairlane.
A weekly Saturday night car meet had just ended  and they were all leaving, I pulled out of the restaurant next door. 
There were young people there - looked like a good age mix actually, but many of the old guys were in rough shape.
The Fairlane pulls off and later I pass a 1920s Ford for sale in a driveway. I'd love to own either, but it'll never happen. Got my hands full with bikes and 2 modern cars.

As far as generations and liking what you grew up with; I was born late 60s and still want a 50s Vincent. I have a mild interest in 1920s - 30s Brit bikes. I'd love a 4-cyl Henderson , Ace or Indian,  but even the wrecks are priced out of my reach now.

I used to be a member of a vintage bike club. The average owner age was....high. There's a lot of nice old bikes hidden away. I hope there are enough people out there with the resources to buy and ride them all when the current caretakers pass on.

Good point! I would much prefer a mid 60's Triumph motorcycle, to any of the newer Triumphs. style, light weight, kick start, no FI or computer.
but then again, I would love to live in an era where horses were the sole means of transportation.

[yogidozer]

willowstreetguzzigu y, see what you started! 

[wymple]

If it has vintage air installed, I'd rather drive & ride in a 54 Buick or Chevy than my wife's new SUV. As far as collectibles, only the new Vette boils my blood, and I consider it too complicated.

[Lannis]

But if there's no audience, there is no value. Will the audience be there in 25 years?

Well, lets look at it this way.  Jump BACK 25 or 50 years.

What about cars from the 1920s and 1930s?    Almost no one alive today "grew up with" those cars, the Pierce-Arrows, Model T Fords, Essex Terraplanes.   

Has interest in those cars disappeared and the value dropped to where you can pick them up easily?   No way.    Remember when Belloc pulled out a cheap watch in "ROTLA"?

“Look at this. It’s worthless — ten dollars from a vendor in the street. But I take it, I bury it in the sand for a thousand years, it becomes priceless. Like the Ark.”

Or like a 1934 flathead Ford .....

Lannis

[willowstreetguzziguy]

What about cars from the 1920s and 1930s?    Almost no one alive today "grew up with" those cars, the Pierce-Arrows, Model T Fords, Essex Terraplanes.   


Lannis

I don't think it all about living during that time, its more about appreciating them.  There are still many car guys and car girls in their 60's, 70's and 80's with money who are still car fanatics who appreciate those automobiles. I think there are far less car guys and car girls coming up thru the ranks.

[AJ Huff]

I'd kill to have my 1980 Celica Sunchaser back. I'd also love to have a Supra with targa top. MR2s also. The early Lexus SC400 is a dream car I still can't afford. The early BMW M3 was pretty sweet. Buick Reatta convertible is one of my all time favorite cars. So I think you're wrong. But the audience may be much smaller.

-AJ

[Lannis]

I don't think it all about living during that time, its more about appreciating them.  There are still many car guys and car girls in their 60's, 70's and 80's with money who are still car fanatics who appreciate those automobiles. I think there are far less car guys and car girls coming up thru the ranks.

There sure are a lot of them here where I live!   They may be doing fuel injection rail swaps on hot hatchbacks rather than jacking up GTOs, but there are a bunch of them.

We always think "When we're gone, there'll be nobody left!"   Every generation thinks that.  And it never seems to happen.   Old cars from any era get more expensive and more desirable as time goes by.

When I ride the old BSA A10 up to Ohio this year for the OVBSAOC rally, I'll bet that half of the BSA owners will be younger than me.   

Besides, it's not like we're in layered, defined "generations".    There's a smooth continuity of ages, interests, etc.   They'll carry on.

Lannis

[jbell]

Me thinks the market will be strong for current bikes/cars in 25 years.  If you consider today's value of the "throw away" bikes and cars of 25 or 40 years ago, we couldn't see it then, but it happened.  As has already been stated, it's the memories that are selling.  Current cars and bikes have a rideability and dependability that our "dream machines" couldn't approach. 

[Toecutter]

I think that in 25 years, owning old vehicles will strictly be the providence of the very rich. I see a future in which the internal combustion engine is obsolete, fuel is ridiculously overpriced, and gasoline engines will be antiques, ridden/driven for parades and the like, at a premium tax and registration cost.

We're seeing the end of an era here, we're in it... the horse and buggy being phased out by cars? We're at the tipping point of a new revolution. So, enjoy it while it lasts, because it's not going to last.

As for "style"... the truly stylish vehicles that are being made today are *already* those that are afforded only by the rich. The middle class cars and trucks are cookie cutter. Some bikes are hitting style cues, but riders are driven by style (don't lie, you are too).

That said... I think we see style in "eras" of cars, as opposed to actual cars. Yeah, some cars were amazing looking... but a '40s Pickup... well, they all kinda looked the same.. just like they do now.

[yogidozer]

"In the year 2525....if man is still alive...." 

[Huzo]

 

 Yeah , but how could you see where you were going ?

 Dusty

He didn't need to.
With that thing, he was going to jail..!

[Lannis]

I think that in 25 years, owning old vehicles will strictly be the providence of the very rich. I see a future in which the internal combustion engine is obsolete, fuel is ridiculously overpriced, and gasoline engines will be antiques, ridden/driven for parades and the like, at a premium tax and registration cost.

Maybe in 125 years.   Not in 25 years; that's just around the corner.   It would be starting now if it were going to happen that soon.

Heck, this post will be in the WG archives and I'll have it bookmarked!

Lannis

[wymple]

I know a guy with 2 20's era Fords, one he picked up years ago for 15K, the other he inherited from his father-in-law. He claims both have lost a third of their value as few want the hassle of dealing with them, or just don't understand the mechanicals, such as magnetos, etc.

[pressureangle]

I'm in the Musclecar restoration culture, I've owned my '68 Dodge Charger since 1981. We ask ourselves every day who is going to end up with all this stuff. I think there is a significant number of kids who will love the cars-like my son-but will not have the skills to work on them. A lot of them will end up in family collections, and the possession will wax and wane with fortunes. There will always be a boutique of professional mechanics who will demand increasingly good money for working on this stuff- I get $100/hr for the things only I can do in the area. And I'm not getting any cheaper. Whether some kid will come along to learn what I know, only time will tell.

[AJ Huff]

Lannis hit on it. You guys are thinking muscle cars and hot rods. The younger generation is tuners and drifters. Still cars, just different strokes. The one common interest will probably be the off roaders. That crowd doesn't really change tastes.

-AJ

[yogidozer]

I'm in the Musclecar restoration culture, I've owned my '68 Dodge Charger since 1981. We ask ourselves every day who is going to end up with all this stuff. I think there is a significant number of kids who will love the cars-like my son-but will not have the skills to work on them. A lot of them will end up in family collections, and the possession will wax and wane with fortunes. There will always be a boutique of professional mechanics who will demand increasingly good money for working on this stuff- I get $100/hr for the things only I can do in the area. And I'm not getting any cheaper. Whether some kid will come along to learn what I know, only time will tell.

Dominic Toretto??? is that you?