Wildguzzi.com
General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: canuck750 on June 29, 2015, 07:29:32 PM
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As Greece teeters on the edge, apparently about to default on its debts, the Euro fell in value again today. With a debt of over 165% of total economic output the country has no real ability to pay. Regardless of what failed socialist ideals brought on the failure there are many other major European nations dangerously close to Greece including Italy with a debt in the trillions at over 130% of total economic output. The Euro could take a real beating in the short term, it may mean the cost of European imports may drop and in the case of Italy things could get very scary. Watch the exchange rate of Dollars to Euros for the next month, that dream Italian bike or cache of parts may become more affordable than you expected.
The sad reality is that a lot of middle class people in Greece are going to really suffer. Hopefully it does not lead to a domino effect for the Italians, Portuguese and Spaniards.
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It's interesting to think about the bling that might be affordable due to the exchange rate. Bike prices in the US won't see much, if any, benefit because the companies will be happy to enjoy the windfall.
Peter Y.
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I guess we'll know after/if/and/or:
Greece fully "fails"
Greece exits the Euro community
Germany/France decide to "shore-up" the Euro and to what extent they are successful
Russia plays her cards if she even cares to
So many variables other than those but ultimately and really, in the short term, there's likely to be a bit of a tumble even if deliberately "allowed" by the powers that be. A giant shudder and then stabilization if if resulting in a net "loss" would do wonders to establish long term confidence in the Euro and I'm sure I'm not the first one to think of that.
Players in the wings... some anyhow:
Russia
England
Turkey - yup, them
China
And... even us.
It won't be boring.
Having lived in and amongst staggering, story-book inflation (comes to that, as in Rhodesia), I feel for those spawn of the Ancients.
Heady brinksmanship on these levels is seldom manipulated by fools... sometimes, sure but less likely than press would have us Plebes think.
Todd
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As Greece teeters on the edge, apparently about to default on its debts, the Euro fell in value again today. With a debt of over 165% of total economic output the country has no real ability to pay. Regardless of what failed socialist ideals brought on the failure there are many other major European nations dangerously close to Greece including Italy with a debt in the trillions at over 130% of total economic output. The Euro could take a real beating in the short term, it may mean the cost of European imports may drop and in the case of Italy things could get very scary. Watch the exchange rate of Dollars to Euros for the next month, that dream Italian bike or cache of parts may become more affordable than you expected.
The sad reality is that a lot of middle class people in Greece are going to really suffer. Hopefully it does not lead to a domino effect for the Italians, Portuguese and Spaniards.
We'll make a note - canuck750 said on 29 June 2015 that the Euro would fall significantly over the next month versus the dollar.
I'm not saying it won't happen, but these kinds of predictions are very hard to make, although those who CAN make them and make them correctly can earn a fortune. Or lose one, if you bet the wrong way .... !
Lannis
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Like any financial woe, it does not translate into better prices for consumers. Bankrupt car companies don't sell their cars on the cheap. If Greece really affected Italy to any degree, fire sales for MGs won't be in the cards.
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One thing about the global economy: nothing ever gets cheaper, no matter where you are. An Armani suit in Milan costs the same as the same suit at Nordstrom in Omaha Nebraska.
But this might be the time to do one of those "buy your German/Italian car from the factory, drive it around Europe for two weeks and then ship it home" deals that we saw back in the 1980s.
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if prices do drop, too bad Guzzi doesn't offer a bike I'd want.. something like an 8v spine frame Lemans' but more newer with ABS and traction options.
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if prices do drop, too bad Guzzi doesn't offer a bike I'd want.. something like an 8v spine frame Lemans' but more newer with ABS and traction options.
Ain't that the sad truth of it for some of us. Nothing in the line-up strikes me dramatic, like my Sport or Calvin did when first seeing them in the showroom.
Todd.
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We buy Moto Guzzi's from Piaggio Americas, similar to BMW and probably others. What may never see a drop in prices but may see sales incentives.
All in all the Euro Union will share equally in the pain. The union was a bad idea giving a few control over many. I am for free and sovereign nations, a concept vanishing before our eyes.
OK rant over.
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About the only way to benefit from the drop in the euro is to order parts from Italy. Your CC payment is converted to euros at the good rate. I ordered some rear sets from Agostinis and got a good price and fast turn around. Really fast.
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All in all the Euro Union will share equally in the pain. The union was a bad idea giving a few control over many. I am for free and sovereign nations, a concept vanishing before our eyes.
"Free and Sovereign Nations" was the problem that the Euro Union was trying to FIX. For a thousand years, all that those "free and sovereign nations" did was fight wars over territory and economics, culminating in the tribal bloodbaths of the 20th Century once the weapons got really effective.
They'll probably have to look back over a 1500 year horizon in 2515 and say "We finally got it fixed", because the current plan ain't workin' ......
Lannis
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Lannis nailed it. The EU was established with the idea that an economic union would make it impractical for European nations -- notably Germany and France -- to attack each other. To that extent uniting the economies of France and Germany probably makes sense, and then neighboring industrialized countries (Italy, Benelux) see a need to participate in those markets. But rich peripheral countries (UK, Sweden, Norway, Switzerland) may not get much benefit -- and you can see how poorer nations turn into tourist economies exporting gastarbeiten. Relinquishing economic sovereignty turns into a bad deal when you can't devalue a dedicated currency.
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No harm in placing a little currency bet...go and buy some euros from your local AAA or bank and hold them for a month...minus any transaction fees, you may make some $$$...or definitely take a trip over and enjoy a nice European vacation.
Does Guzzi actually offer a pickup from the factory offer to have it shipped back like BMW and Mercedes and Volvo did in the past?
That could be a fun way to go and visit friends near Mandello (Cislago, Senago) and break in a new Guzzi down the Croatian coast for 2 weeks and then package it up back to the States...
Let the trip planning begin!!! :)
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Inventory in warehouses & dealer show floors is priced in "current" dollars.
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Like any financial woe, it does not translate into better prices for consumers. Bankrupt car companies don't sell their cars on the cheap. If Greece really affected Italy to any degree, fire sales for MGs won't be in the cards.
+1
I don't see MG fire sales in the near future. More likely is if things get really bad for Italy I can see MG folding.... then maybe reduced prices, or, prices stay the same as it may be your last chance to buy a new MG.
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The danger is not so much Greece as it is Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. German banks can only write off so much to prop up the Euro.
Banks are not trying to save Greece or the Euro as much as they are trying to save their balance sheets. This feels so much like the real estate bubble of the last decade, lots and lots of warnings from all across the spectrum countered by the drone of the IMF and the European Central bank to try and maintain a façade of calm.
Does anyone remember Broklsey Born? from Wixipedia "A little more than a decade ago, Born foresaw a financial cataclysm, accurately predicting that exotic investments known as over-the-counter derivatives could play a crucial role in a crisis much like the one now convulsing America"
Frontline aired an expose on Ms. Born back in 2006. All the pundits and experts tried to discredit her, German banks in particular were facing a major hit and were visceral in their criticism of her. Of course she was 100% correct. I did a lot of homework after that show and eventually pulled about 75% of my investments out of the market. My Banker said I was nuts. Six months later I was high and dry riding it out in the money markets.
So where is the market going to go when this Euro bubble comes tumbling down? I doubt the US markets will escape unscathed. US Treasury bonds or the money markets may be the only lifeboat, US Dollars or British Pounds, anything but Euros.
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In the end, the wealthy and the Bankers will be just fine. It is the regular folks who will take the hit. The deck is stacked that way and always will be.
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In the end, the wealthy and the Bankers will be just fine. It is the regular folks who will take the hit. The deck is stacked that way and always will be.
Indeed,
The DOW fell 2% today, wiping out a lot of gains. I would get out of the markets for the next six months, your banker or investment councillor will tell you your crazy, ignore them, if you get out now you could potentially save a lot and put your money in a fund market that can make a profit while stocks tumble. Jump back in while the DOW is at the bottom and you can make a good return riding the curve back up.
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... until we learn overnight that Greece and its creditors have figured something out, and the Dow flies back up on Tuesday. When the swings are about politics and policy, and not actual market forces, who knows what can happen.
Which is why timing the market never worked for me--my best strategy was simple old 'dollar-cost averaging'.
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As Greece teeters on the edge, apparently about to default on its debts, the Euro fell in value again today. With a debt of over 165% of total economic output the country has no real ability to pay. Regardless of what failed socialist ideals brought on the failure there are many other major European nations dangerously close to Greece including Italy with a debt in the trillions at over 130% of total economic output. The Euro could take a real beating in the short term, it may mean the cost of European imports may drop and in the case of Italy things could get very scary. Watch the exchange rate of Dollars to Euros for the next month, that dream Italian bike or cache of parts may become more affordable than you expected.
The sad reality is that a lot of middle class people in Greece are going to really suffer. Hopefully it does not lead to a domino effect for the Italians, Portuguese and Spaniards.
You are looking at the sad future for the middle class here the the US too. Our Dept. now exceeds our GDP as well.
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...
Jump back in while the DOW is at the bottom ...
Like that is easy.
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Oh boy! We are all gonna be millionaires soon!
(http://i1299.photobucket.com/albums/ag77/Penderic/Zim%20%201_0_zpsdrlmv1k8.jpg)
:shocked:
(http://i1299.photobucket.com/albums/ag77/Penderic/Zimb%205_0_zpsctn25kcu.jpg)
:angry:
(http://i1299.photobucket.com/albums/ag77/Penderic/Zimb%204_0_zpsoundhdnd.jpg)
:boxing:
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European motorcycles are already sold cheaply in the USA. Just look at what they sell for elsewhere.
I don't see a drop in the Euro affecting Guzzi prices over the short-term. One year timeframe.
Over the long-term, maybe. But like I said, they already sell them cheap in The USA.
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Maybe time for a vacation in Greece.
Dean
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Regardless of what happens, the real facts are that the hyper-rich are going to manipulate the situation to feed their greed. They, quite simply, want it ALL. Meanwhile, as ever in amerika, the tail wags the dog and people are in the streets raging over which flag flies where.
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Regardless of what happens, the real facts are that the hyper-rich are going to manipulate the situation to feed their greed. They, quite simply, want it ALL. Meanwhile, as ever in amerika, the tail wags the dog and people are in the streets raging over which flag flies where.
I dunno, no rich person (including the CEO of my company) ever stole anything from me. The conclusion I draw from Greece is that it's not capitalism that ruined them, it was government spending and related fantasy-based fiscal policy. And they are now facing the consequences of running out of other people's money.
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No harm in placing a little currency bet...go and buy some euros from your local AAA or bank and hold them for a month...minus any transaction fees, you may make some $$$...or definitely take a trip over and enjoy a nice European vacation.
Ummm ... think about that one again .....
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I dunno, no rich person (including the CEO of my company) ever stole anything from me. The conclusion I draw from Greece is that it's not capitalism that ruined them, it was government spending and related fantasy-based fiscal policy. And they are now facing the consequences of running out of other people's money.
:1: Yup. It's not a "zero-sum game" - that's why we invented the term "making money". I can get rich, and you can get rich, and we don't have to impoverish anyone to do it, nor do we have to steal anything from anyone.
Besides that, I don't ever remember a poor or middle-class guy hiring me for a good-paying job with benefits ....
Lannis
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Besides that, I don't ever remember a poor or middle-class guy hiring me for a good-paying job with benefits ....
Lannis
I hate to disagree but when I was poor and took home less than $13,000 per year I hired a lot of guys for good-paying jobs with benefits. Not making any money is a side product of starting a company. For the last 5 years now I am again lower middle class and my men make more than I do.
Just a more side product of owning your own business and in Building Construction it has been a Depression not a Recession
Still if the Euro tanks I'd love to get a Falcone shipped out.
(http://www.motorcycleclassics.com/~/media/Images/MCC/Editorial/Articles/Magazine%20Articles/2009/07-01/1963%20Moto%20Guzzi%20Falcone%20Sport/MG-Falcone-1.jpg)
Mark
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Indeed,
The DOW fell 2% today, wiping out a lot of gains. I would get out of the markets for the next six months, your banker or investment councillor will tell you your crazy, ignore them, if you get out now you could potentially save a lot and put your money in a fund market that can make a profit while stocks tumble. Jump back in while the DOW is at the bottom and you can make a good return riding the curve back up.
seems like a better strategy if you sold out on Friday
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Regardless of what happens, the real facts are that the hyper-rich are going to manipulate the situation to feed their greed. They, quite simply, want it ALL. Meanwhile, as ever in amerika, the tail wags the dog and people are in the streets raging over which flag flies where.
The real facts are Greece has social programs which it cannot afford to pay for. And neither can Europe.
The slackers in Greece need to get to work and produce something people will buy, so their GDP will go into the black.
Sitting around waiting on government handouts of money borrowed/imported from the EU has not been working, and will not work.
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For many years, I ran a company (didn't own it) that imported electronic consumer goods from two, Italian manufacturers so I have some experience with this. When we first started doing business with the Italians, the Lira was around 1200 to the US dollar and they wanted to be paid in Lira. As the Lira lost ground against the USD (it eventually got to over 1900 to the USD), we never lowered our prices; instead, we took some of the extra margin $$$$$ and used it for incentives and promos to the dealers that we sold to as well as to our salespeople (we had 24 retail outlets). Since Guzzi USA is most likely a stand-alone corporation, they probably buy the bikes in Euros but sell to the dealers in dollars. Since they make their profits in USD, they'll have extra margin $$$$$ if the Euro keeps dropping (and it already has during the last year, so they're already making more $$$ per bike than they were previously making). They'll probably use some of that money for incentives to dealers and retail customers as long as this continues unless the mother Guzzi company raises their prices to offset the extra money that the US company is making.
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Besides that, I don't ever remember a poor or middle-class guy hiring me for a good-paying job with benefits ....
Lannis
Obviously you've never worked for a subcontractor in the construction industry.
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I dunno, no rich person (including the CEO of my company) ever stole anything from me. The conclusion I draw from Greece is that it's not capitalism that ruined them, it was government spending and related fantasy-based fiscal policy. And they are now facing the consequences of running out of other people's money.
"The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money [to spend]."
-- Margaret Thatcher
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The real facts are Greece has social programs which it cannot afford to pay for. And neither can Europe.
The slackers in Greece need to get to work and produce something people will buy, so their GDP will go into the black.
Sitting around waiting on government handouts of money borrowed/imported from the EU has not been working, and will not work.
Not at all sure I agree with your oversimplification. That being said, you and others are violating WG policy. I have done it many times, and I have gotten dinged for it, so I feel we all should be held to the same standard.
"Also, Please refrain from posting Political, Religion, Pornography (unless it's their naked motorcycle) and other senseless drivel."
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****
Since Guzzi USA is most likely a stand-alone corporation, they probably buy the bikes in Euros but sell to the dealers in dollars. Since they make their profits in USD, they'll have extra margin $$$$$ if the Euro keeps dropping (and it already has during the last year, so they're already making more $$$ per bike than they were previously making). They'll probably use some of that money for incentives to dealers and retail customers as long as this continues unless the mother Guzzi company raises their prices to offset the extra money that the US company is making.
One hopes, but the cynic in me foresees bonuses for suits. :rolleyes:
The real facts are Greece has social programs which it cannot afford to pay for. And neither can Europe.
The slackers in Greece need to get to work and produce something people will buy, so their GDP will go into the black.
Sitting around waiting on government handouts of money borrowed/imported from the EU has not been working, and will not work.
Not at all sure I agree with your oversimplification. That being said, you and others are violating WG policy. I have done it many times, and I have gotten dinged for it, so I feel we all should be held to the same standard.
"Also, Please refrain from posting Political, Religion, Pornography (unless it's their naked motorcycle) and other senseless drivel."
R59 can certainly defend himself, but I did not see his or others as political, but social and economic.
Yes, too, of course, the lines get blurry sometimes, but nothing necessarily partisan there.
And, yes, "oversimplification," but no one here has time for tomes on the topic. Heck, I doubt if anyone yet has even gotten completely through my Swanzey slideshow before nodding off ... and its GC. Even Kathi took an intermission & wine break. :laugh:
Bill
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The original post was about Guzzis getting cheaper because of the issues over there.
I think Jackson has it nailed.
Since the US market sees Euro bikes sold cheaper than other markets because of fierce Asian competition, I really don't think we'll see noticeable, if any MSRP reductions, though PGA may use some of the windfall to offer incentives on leftovers, and possibly also buy-down interest rates on financing.
It's a complicated mess over there, and the political side of it would be better discussed elsewhere.
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The real facts are Greece has social programs which it cannot afford to pay for. And neither can Europe.
The slackers in Greece need to get to work and produce something people will buy, so their GDP will go into the black.
Sitting around waiting on government handouts of money borrowed/imported from the EU has not been working, and will not work.
No one can go to work if there's no money to buy things and pay wages.
the Greeks have already taken enough pain, they need to get out of the Euro currency so they can grow their economy and get back to work. So do the Irish, the Portuguese, the Spanish and perhaps the Italians.
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Not at all sure I agree with your oversimplification. That being said, you and others are violating WG policy. I have done it many times, and I have gotten dinged for it, so I feel we all should be held to the same standard.
"Also, Please refrain from posting Political, Religion, Pornography (unless it's their naked motorcycle) and other senseless drivel."
good one Chad. :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil:
:laugh:
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Not at all sure I agree with your oversimplification. That being said, you and others are violating WG policy. I have done it many times, and I have gotten dinged for it, so I feel we all should be held to the same standard.
"Also, Please refrain from posting Political, Religion, Pornography (unless it's their naked motorcycle) and other senseless drivel."
good one Chad. :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil:
:laugh:
You are free to report my posts to Luap any time you wish.
I encourage you to so.
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No one can go to work if there's no money to buy things and pay wages.
the Greeks have already taken enough pain, they need to get out of the Euro currency so they can grow their economy and get back to work. So do the Irish, the Portuguese, the Spanish and perhaps the Italians.
But how is "getting out of the Euro currency" going to help the Greeks "buy things and pay wages"? Or them other guys, either?
I don't think that the Euro is their problem.
Lannis
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VOTE FOR ME! :evil:
(http://i1299.photobucket.com/albums/ag77/Penderic/freemoney_zpsjfnoglej.jpg)
Its a trap.
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I generally find that this:
Not at all sure I agree ......
Generally precedes this:
That being said, you and others are violating WG policy.
I have a strange feeling (no real evidence, mind you, just a hunch) that if the consensus of the thread had been some sort of left-leaning sentiment, we wouldn't see a demand to quit talking about it ....
Lannis
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An economist I respect immensely wrote in the New York Times yesterday that most of the Greek damage to the euro has already been done. He sees a bleak future for Greece but doesn't think the euro will sink much.
And if it does, I won't expect to see better prices on U.S.-spec Guzzis. Instead I'd consider taking advantage of my retirement by flying to Europe where I can use my strong dollars to buy a nice used motorcycle and tour the Mediterranean countries for three or four months.
Either way, maybe I can buy enough discounted drachmas to realize a lifelong dream: sail around the Aegean for a summer.
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The problems with economists and economic theory is it based upon a series of rules, like all law, the outcomes can be anticipated if the rules are followed. The financial meltdown of the last decade occurred because a lot of people in positions of power and influence did not follow the laws or at a minimum looked the other way.
The current dogma of economic thought is that somehow the Greeks will pay what they can not possibly pay, this followed by the Irish, Italians et all.
But what if the rules are thrown out the window and debtors claim bankruptcy?
Don't think it can happen?, look to the history of Spain since the 16th century. A lot of lost debt means a lot of inflation as the currencies are devalued.
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you are worrying about the wrong country. some morning you will wake up and find out the dollar is no longer the world currency and the dollars you had are at best worth 50 cents on the dollar. we are the kettle and the cast iron frying pan calling Greece black.
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the mother Guzzi company raises their prices to offset the extra money that the US company is making.
I work for a company that buys in Euros and sells in Pounds Sterling, the parent company knows our profit margin is rising and has altered Gross Profit targets, preventing us from reducing prices.
You will pay the same in Dollars for your bike, effectively contributing to bailing out the great Euro dream.
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you are worrying about the wrong country. some morning you will wake up and find out the dollar is no longer the world currency and the dollars you had are at best worth 50 cents on the dollar. we are the kettle and the cast iron frying pan calling Greece black.
Some guys on another list were saying all that same thing back in 2008; that by 2014 the dollar would be worthless, that some North American currency would be forced on us, there would be a huge depression, etc etc etc.
It would never have come back up again except I remind them about it occasionally by pulling 6-year-old posts back up and saying "Daddy, are we there yet?" And, of course, we are not.
I don't understand the reasoning behind the doomsday sentiment, unless you're saying it could be 100 years in the future in which case I agree because neither of us will be interested in that sort of thing by that time ..... Any dates predicted so we can do a little futures trading?
Lannis
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you are worrying about the wrong country. some morning you will wake up and find out the dollar is no longer the world currency and the dollars you had are at best worth 50 cents on the dollar. we are the kettle and the cast iron frying pan calling Greece black.
I don't agree, the reason the US Dollar is the bench mark is because the US Government can, if need be, tax their citizenry to pay debt and the US citizenry can, though not willingly pay more taxes.
As for US debt to the Saudi's or Chinese, the US can print money, devalue the currency and in kind reduce the real wealth of the creditors owed balance. The debtors know this all to well so there is no real incentive to force the Chinese dollar to the top. This will raise inflation but it will maintain the US greenback. When the shit hits the proverbial fan all markets run to shelter in US dollars.
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As for US debt to the Saudi's or Chinese, the US can print money, devalue the currency and in kind reduce the real wealth of the creditors owed balance.
The debtors know a couple of other things too, namely that they can't send Chang "Icepick" Eng or Abdullah "Crazy Ali" Rashad over here to break someone's leg if we get behind on a few payments .... so everyone sort of agrees to let it keep working like it is ....
Lannis
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Bring on the 0% 60mos and $2000 rebates !
I want a $12,000 Cal Custom!
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I am prepared to give financial advice for a fee.
It would be the only way I'd make money in the markets because the catch is that whatever I recommend, do the opposite ... quickly.
I do not wish to remember how many times over past several years I have dumb thing$ in a big way. Two weeks ago comes to mind.
I'm lucky Kathi hasn't shot me.
Bill
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I don't agree, the reason the US Dollar is the bench mark is because the US Government can, if need be, tax their citizenry to pay debt and the US citizenry can, though not willingly pay more taxes.
As for US debt to the Saudi's or Chinese, the US can print money, devalue the currency and in kind reduce the real wealth of the creditors owed balance. The debtors know this all to well so there is no real incentive to force the Chinese dollar to the top. This will raise inflation but it will maintain the US greenback. When the shit hits the proverbial fan all markets run to shelter in US dollars.
This is true, as the stock market dropped yesterday, people were putting their money into US bonds. Please keep in mind, 66% of our debt is owned by us in the US. China only owns 16% of our debt.
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I am prepared to give financial advice for a fee.
It would be the only way I'd make money in the markets because the catch is that whatever I recommend, do the opposite ... quickly.
I do not wish to remember how many times over past several years I have dumb thing$ in a big way. Two weeks ago comes to mind.
I'm lucky Kathi hasn't shot me.
Bill
I've dropped some real clangers in my time. One was investing in "Evergreen Energy", a company who owned a process to pre-treat coal so that the bad pollutants could be taken out and disposed of in a controlled fashion, then the coal burned in a plant with minimal pollution controls.
It worked, but nobody wanted to use it - the stack-scrubbers are too well developed and the dirtier plants are being shut down in favor of gas anyway.
I bought 1000 shares at about $8 a share, and when I finally cashed out after the bankruptcy I think I netted something like $0.19. Total; not per share. Win some, lose some. I've won more than I've lost, though!
Lannis
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I generally find that this:
Generally precedes this:
I have a strange feeling (no real evidence, mind you, just a hunch) that if the consensus of the thread had been some sort of left-leaning sentiment, we wouldn't see a demand to quit talking about it ....
Lannis
You are correct Lannis. Had R59 been pushing my perspective I wouldn't have called him out on the carpet. Yet he wasn't, and I have been taken to the woodshed over the years here, for venting my position on similar topics. I deliberately chose not to weigh in on this thread with an opinion, only because I've seen where it often leads.
It did get my goat that R59,was going political, as I see it, a practice that is officially frowned own. R59 is a dam good guy, and he's only as human as the rest of us. He may maintain that he wasn't over the line, I think he was, but so what, if he was it was minor. Who really cares? I still like to think of this as a campfire, where different opinions are always being brought out, it's not nearly as good as the real thing, but it beats everything else.
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You are correct Lannis. Had R59 been pushing my perspective I wouldn't have called him out on the carpet. Yet he wasn't, and I have been taken to the woodshed over the years here, for venting my position on similar topics. I deliberately chose not to weigh in on this thread with an opinion, only because I've seen where it often leads.
It did get my goat that R59,was going political, as I see it, a practice that is officially frowned own. R59 is a dam good guy, and he's only as human as the rest of us. He may maintain that he wasn't over the line, I think he was, but so what, if he was it was minor. Who really cares? I still like to think of this as a campfire, where different opinions are always being brought out, it's not nearly as good as the real thing, but it beats everything else.
All good stuff, and I agree.
On the other hand, any of us can tell that, although the thread title has "Guzzi" in it, this is about European and world economics, which leads to social systems (capitalism, socialism, welfare states, etc), which can tread close to politics.
Nothing in here about how to set your Guzzi valves, or when the 2016 models will be available, or anything you might want to refer to in future about Guzzis. We all know that going in.
So (knowing that), why bother to click onto the thread? And further, why bother to read the posts and be worried by them? And further, why complain that the thread doesn't meet your interpretation of the WG standards?
You could just ignore it all and your virtual-interaction day could be smooth and unruffled and not worrisome. That's what I do when a thread that's obviously of no interest to me comes up and is being posted to .... ? I've long since given up the idea of being a list-monitor and "doing my bit" to uphold what I see as the Standards. We got people that do that very well. I have NO fear that WG would turn into something that I'd be ashamed to have my name associated with, like some other lists are ..... ?
Lannis
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The Greeks have already suffered a lot of pain by "internal devaluation." They've kept the € as their currency so they've had to cut their wages and benefits to some extent to try to become competitive.
I believe their output hasn't started rising yet so I guess they're not yet sufficiently competitive.
They can take further cuts which of course increases the pain or they can change the currency and let the new one find its equilibrium where the Greek wages as expressed in their new currency are competitive. That too, of course will be painful as all imports will be more expensive for them. There's no quick and easy fix here.
As for the Greek debt that's another matter. If they're unable to pay, lenders will have to suffer somehow. But I understand their tax collection could be improved substantially.
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We're letting it run, but yes, though it mentions cheaper Guzzis, this thread is really about economics.
I guess as long as it doesn't get too partisan and political, it will live. But I have my doubts that it will be long.
I really didn't intend my comment as partisan political, but I can see how it might be taken that way.
No sweat calling me out Chad. It is the best virtual campfire around, and everyone needs a call out every now and again.
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But how is "getting out of the Euro currency" going to help the Greeks "buy things and pay wages"? Or them other guys, either?
I don't think that the Euro is their problem.
Lannis
they can print their own currency and restructure debt. It's beginning to look like their only choice.
It won't be easy. The Euro is exacerbating their un-payable debt and depression. The Troika has made them an "offer they can't accept". (NYT, Krugman)
Greece should have defaulted and gone out of the Euro earlier instead of drawing this out over 5 years. They should've never been in the Euro currency in first place, there was no way their economy was ever strong enough. Same is true for Portugal and Spain.
Their only hope is to get out of the Euro, restructure debt, grow and reform their economy.
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:popcorn: :popcorn: :popcorn: :popcorn:
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The Greeks have already suffered a lot of pain by "internal devaluation." They've kept the � as their currency so they've had to cut their wages and benefits to some extent to try to become competitive.
I believe their output hasn't started rising yet so I guess they're not yet sufficiently competitive.
They can take further cuts which of course increases the pain or they can change the currency and let the new one find its equilibrium where the Greek wages as expressed in their new currency are competitive. That too, of course will be painful as all imports will be more expensive for them. There's no quick and easy fix here.
As for the Greek debt that's another matter. If they're unable to pay, lenders will have to suffer somehow. But I understand their tax collection could be improved substantially.
well said
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they can print their own currency and restructure debt. It's beginning to look like their only choice.
It won't be easy. The Euro is exacerbating their un-payable debt and depression. The Troika has made them an "offer they can't accept". (NYT, Krugman)
Greece should have defaulted and gone out of the Euro earlier instead of drawing this out over 5 years. They should've never been in the Euro currency in first place, there was no way their economy was ever strong enough. Same is true for Portugal and Spain.
Their only hope is to get out of the Euro, restructure debt, grow and reform their economy.
I'll go along with that.
HOWEVER, if government corruption is siphoning off billions of euros, it'll siphon off billions of drachmas and they'll have to fix that, and that's not easy once it's institutionalized.
And if people have gotten used to unfundable benefit and pension plans based on past pyramid schemes, they'll have to get "un-used" to them and get to work.
At any rate, they've got a long, rocky row to hoe.
Guzzi content: Greek euro default -> Impact on EU -> devalue euro relative to dollar -> Guzzis cheaper in euros to US -> Better deals for US ->more exports of Guzzi = improve EU/Italian economy = Buy More Guzzis!
Whew!
Lannis
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Testarosa had a great idea, cheap Greek vacation.
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Testarosa had a great idea, cheap Greek vacation.
And you'd be carrying real money there and leaving it; they'll need it!
Lannis
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win-win, Lannis
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We are in uncharted territory at the moment with Greece and no one can accurately predict the outcome of the impending default on it's debts. In reality Greece cannot pay back it's loans so it is a matter of dressing up a deal that the Germans etc. can sell to their voters which will not be easy. What is for sure the situation will drag on for years whatever the next few weeks bring.
The fundamentals have not changed, the Euro one size fits all currency union cannot be sustained without ever closer economic and political union which the U.K. and a few others are trying to resist hence the in/out referendum due here (UK) in 2017 which could go either way causing even more damage to the EU project.
In the mean time visitors to Greece have been advised to take plenty of euros in cash for their holidays because the cash machines and banks can no longer be relied on. Tunisia has become a no go zone which all adds up to a uncertain holiday period for many here in Europe.
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A ton of working class Italians would LOVE LOVE LOVE to get out of the Euro and have their Lira back. :thumb:
If for no onther reason than to quit carrying so damn many coins around!! :angry: