Harley Davidson stock prices fall

[LowRyter]

I made some good money in HD in the 90’s. Fortunately I saw the writing on the wall just in time and cashed out.

Dang!  Why don't you work an investment thread here on WG.  We can all be millionaires.

[Lannis]

I made some good money in HD in the 90’s. Fortunately I saw the writing on the wall just in time and cashed out.

Hmm.  I've seen that "writing on the wall" before, and cashed out of something, and then watched it go on a rocket ride upwards ....

I did good on Enron in the 90s, though.   Made a bunch of money and "just happened" to sell it all just before the mushroom cloud ....

Sometimes you're the bug, sometimes the windshield ....

Lannis

[oldbike54]

Don't know about the current ownership, but the last time I stopped in the Wichita area H-D dealer (previous owners) I was on my Norge and no one would give me the time of day. When I went back out to leave there were to techs looking it over however.
GliderJohn

 For several years RT 66 HD in Tulsa had a shop foreman who only rode Moto Guzzi .

 Dusty

[not-fishing]

Ah according to this graph HD stock has been falling for the last 5 years from a high of $ 61.98 to the present price of $ 35.69.

[reidy]

I think part of the problem for Harley, at least in Australia, is they spent many years promoting the bad boy outlaw image to cashed up professionals as there main customers. It was a brilliant marketing program that raked in good money, by not only selling bikes but every accessory and item of clothing you needed to get out of your business suit on Friday and be a real biker for the weekend.   

The world has changed and it does not seem that being a bad boy is on trend at the moment, more likely an environmentalist vegan. Since the campaign of instant biker was so successful it will be hard to change the image. Some how I don't think Harley would get away with "you meet the nicest people on a Harley" slogan. Also the whole leather and vegan thing does not go together real well.

Steve     

[blu guzz]

from my experience, there are still many places in the USA where the "bad boy" image is going strong.  in fact, i can see a strong market as rider's girth keeps expanding and the need to replace those vests rears its head. 

[kballowe]

Meh.  Motorcycles.  Who cares ?  Certainly not the newest generations.
 

Our local Honda/Yamaha/Kawasaki/Suzuki/Polaris dealer is mostly selling those 4-wheeled side-by-sides.  Their inventory of 2-wheeled items is a fraction of what it was just five years ago.  And they're (lately) complaining about poor sales of those 4-wheelers.

I think they're all in a bit of a jam - but it's worse for Harley, because they have nothing but 2-wheeled items to sell.

In the mean time, I continue to do my part to help keep the MoCo alive.

   
 

[Ncdan]

Dang!  Why don't you work an investment thread here on WG.  We can all be millionaires.

I didn’t become a millionaire from Harley  Davison’s stock and besides I stopped working on my first million many years ago any just started on the next one😂😂😂. I think I’ll buy some Guzzi stock to contribute to my next million, lol

[Tusayan]

Motorcycles.  Who cares ?  Certainly not the newest generations.

I think this article has good data - motorcycle sales over roughly the last decade have been roughly the same (slightly higher) than sales in the 1990s.  There was a bubble in between, and some people thought the bubble would last forever.

https://ultimatemotorcycling.com/2018/02/12/motorcycle-sales-patterns-explained-sky-not-falling/

[Lannis]

Meh.  Motorcycles.  Who cares ?  Certainly not the newest generations.
 

Depends on where you look.   Couple weeks ago I spent three days wading through kids on motorcycles up to my neck.   Mid Ohio AMA Vintage Motorcycle Days.

Kids everywhere, from pre-schoolers on tiny minibikes, to babies in strollers being towed behind a pit bike, middle schoolers and teenagers buzzing up and down up and down up and down on antique dirt bikes, guys in their twenties rooting through boxes of dirty rusty old parts that only someone restoring an old bike from the ground up would be interested in ....

Tens of thousands of them.   I have NO fear for the future of motorcycling ....

Lannis

[Mayor_of_BBQ]

I think part of the problem for Harley, at least in Australia, is they spent many years promoting the bad boy outlaw image to cashed up professionals as there main customers. It was a brilliant marketing program that raked in good money, by not only selling bikes but every accessory and item of clothing you needed to get out of your business suit on Friday and be a real biker for the weekend.   

The world has changed and it does not seem that being a bad boy is on trend at the moment, more likely an environmentalist vegan. Since the campaign of instant biker was so successful it will be hard to change the image. Some how I don't think Harley would get away with "you meet the nicest people on a Harley" slogan. Also the whole leather and vegan thing does not go together real well.

Steve   

This guy gets it!

I've been surrounded by Harley people my entire life...  The whole biker rally, Myrtle Beach confederate flag cruising with lame classic rock blaring, fake badass image, leather vest & fingerless gloves but no helmet, drunkenly doing burnouts with a cigarette hanging out of the mouth, throttle blipping & wallet chains, "If you can read this the bitch fell off" T-shirts, skulls & chrome and all the rest.... It's a bunch of dumb bullshit and people dont want to be associated with it.

That's my take at least.  Harley (and their fans to a greater extent) have presented this image as the Harley Lifestyle since at least the 70's...  "most people arent badass enough to ride a harley".. whelp, seems like most people are in agreement. 


EDIT: so that is to say, it doesnt matter to me what Harley makes, even the bikes I'm kinda interested in (such as the newer Roadsters or the XR1200 or the Livewire).... I would never buy a bike with HD on the tank because I dont want to be associated with that lifestyle...  And IMHO, the lifestyle IS the brand

[Lannis]

This guy gets it!

I've been surrounded by Harley people my entire life...  The whole biker rally, Myrtle Beach confederate flag cruising with lame classic rock blaring, fake badass image, leather vest & fingerless gloves but no helmet, drunkenly doing burnouts with a cigarette hanging out of the mouth, throttle blipping & wallet chains, "If you can read this the bitch fell off" T-shirts, skulls & chrome and all the rest.... It's a bunch of dumb bullshit and people dont want to be associated with it.

I agree with your and the previous post, but I'm not sure I see a diminution in the number of people playing that lifestyle or assuming that badass image.    Looks to me like there are as many as there ever have been, and there are young ones coming in at the same rate that the old ones are hanging up their chains and nosepickers .... ?

Lannis

[Kev m]

That's my take at least.  Harley (and their fans to a greater extent) have presented this image as the Harley Lifestyle since at least the 70's...  "most people arent badass enough to ride a harley".. whelp, seems like most people are in agreement. 

EDIT: so that is to say, it doesnt matter to me what Harley makes, even the bikes I'm kinda interested in (such as the newer Roadsters or the XR1200 or the Livewire).... I would never buy a bike with HD on the tank because I dont want to be associated with that lifestyle...  And IMHO, the lifestyle IS the brand

Well, not for nothing, but that seems uncomfortably close to making decisions based on what other people will think of you.

And the funny part is that to the 99% of people who don't ride all motorcycles are Harleys or Crotch Rockets, so they probably don't see you any differently than you fear regardless of the fact that you're not on THAT "brand".

[kballowe]

And the funny part is that to the 99% of people who don't ride - all motorcycles are Harleys or Crotch Rockets.

Hahahahahaha  that is sooo true.   I ran into a lady that offered up a whole sack full of Harley t-shirts.  It seems that her dear, departed husband rode a Kawasaki cruiser, and all of his friends and relatives had bought him Harley t-shirts as gifts, over the years.

[dxhall]

Harley’s fall is a consequence of its decision to market its bikes as part of a lifestyle.  In the mid 2000s, there were many who aspired to that lifestyle - thus, the dentist-during-the-week, biker-on-the-weekend riders.

Harley is still marketing itself that way.  If you don’t believe it, go to a Harley dealer, as I did last weekend to get a part for the Sportster.  I’m not exaggerating when I say that I was the only person in the place without tattoos.

That lifestyle (not tattoos,though) is falling from favor.  But Harley is stuck with it.  That’s why its small bikes haven’t sold well, and why I think its electric bike will be a bust.  Those bikes aren’t consistent with the lifestyle Harley has been selling for the last 30 years.  Can you imagine a shaved-head, bearded, tattooed guy on an electric Harley?  I can’t.

The other big manufacturers never marketed themselves that way, and are now not hemmed in by the changing marketplace.  Honda, for example, sells crotch rockets, Gold Wings, and Africa Twins from the same dealerships.  Compare that variety to the bikes on a Harley showroom floor.

The drop in Harley stock prices reflects the market’s evaluation of Harley’s future.  It’s not a bright future.

[Darren Williams]

"I’m not exaggerating when I say that I was the only person in the place without tattoos."

You could say that about any location now-a-days!   

I expect HD management has a better handle on what they need to do for the future than I do. They still sell a lot of branded merchandise to go along with their core bike products.

[Gliderjohn]

Sometimes big ships are hard to turn. Look at Montgomery Ward and Sears. Ward is gone and Sears is a shadow of it's former self. H-D could go the same way if not very careful.
GliderJohn

[Sheepdog]

There is a general assumption that Harley has not kept up with modern standards for performance, comfort, and convenience, that isn't necessarily so. I wouldn't hesitate to consider a 2009 or newer FL model. By every firsthand account I've heard, these bikes have stiff frames, decent brakes, outrageous conveniences, and good build quality. They even have better cornering clearance and water cooled heads on the most recent examples. If I was in the market for a big tourer, I'd definitely have a Road/Electra-Glide or Road King on my list.

The rest of their lineup leaves me cold and the fact is, the HD FLs are too heavy for me. OTOH, I wouldn't mind one of those mid 2000s Sportys that have a carburetor, rubber mounting, and a 5-speed...

[Antietam Classic Cycle]

Sometimes big ships are hard to turn. Look at Montgomery Ward and Sears. Ward is gone and Sears is a shadow of it's former self. H-D could go the same way if not very careful.
GliderJohn

Not quite gone... https://www.wards.com/

[rocker59]

Not quite gone... https://www.wards.com/

I guess you know that the original Montgomery Ward was liquidated.

The current online retailer using the name, bought the name after the original company's demise, hoping to capitalize on its familiarity.  They have no relation.  The new company is Direct Marketing Services Inc., an Iowa-based direct marketing company.

[Lannis]

I guess you know that the original Montgomery Ward was liquidated.

The current online retailer using the name, bought the name after the original company's demise, hoping to capitalize on its familiarity.  They have no relation. 

On the other hand, that sort of thing doesn't slow down the posts on bike forums like:

"Have you seen the new BSA Motorcycles?!"

"I read where Gilera is back in business now!"

"I hear that the Henderson Motorcycle Company is planning a new line of bikes!  My great-grandpa had a Henderson"

Capitalizing on a dead name that's still glowing from the effects of fungus on it is an old motorcycling company ploy .....

Lannis

[rocker59]

On the other hand, that sort of thing doesn't slow down the posts on bike forums like:

"Have you seen the new BSA Motorcycles?!"

"I read where Gilera is back in business now!"

"I hear that the Henderson Motorcycle Company is planning a new line of bikes!  My great-grandpa had a Henderson"

Capitalizing on a dead name that's still glowing from the effects of fungus on it is an old motorcycling company ploy .....

Lannis

Don't forget Norton and Vincent.

[Antietam Classic Cycle]

I guess you know that the original Montgomery Ward was liquidated.

The current online retailer using the name, bought the name after the original company's demise, hoping to capitalize on its familiarity.  They have no relation.  The new company is Direct Marketing Services Inc., an Iowa-based direct marketing company.

As long as the name lives on, then it's not quite "dead" though is it.

[Tom]

Indian Motorcycles & Triumph Motorcycles come to mind.

[reidy]

I don't think Harley will go broke but they may struggle for a few years unless they can successfully re-brand themselves. I agree that there are still a lot of people that want the bad boy image. I just don't think many of them have a wallet as thick as the average accountant or dentist.

Harley also used to advertise in Australia back in the 80's about how little depreciation you would get on a Harley. It was true and the held there value. At the moment the market is swamped with second hand Harley's with low kilometers with high prices. This also puts off people wanting to buy into the Harley image.   

I have ridden a few Harley's and in my opinion they make a good product for its intended use. I would not by a Harley because I don't want to be part of the lifestyle. To the poster that commented that half the public think a motorcycle is a Harley that is true. When you tell them it is not and is brand x they will tell you that it is not as good as a Harley. In my opinion Harley had one of the best marketing teams in the world.

 The amount of people that I have known that have purchased a Harley and within months started growing facial hair, dressing differently and acting like they are king shit because they are a tough Harley rider is incredible. I think there biggest challenge is to move away from being a T shirt company that has bikes as an accessory to a motorcycle company.

They have always made a touring bike so they may have to push the "get out and see the world and enjoy the natural wonders before it is destroyed" or "do it on a Harley and be part of the environment instead of in a car and be isolated". Instead of a bike rally in a downtown bar drinking 20 beers we could go back to camping in nature and enjoying that part of life. Think obout going into the local Harley dealer and buying a pair of gortex ridding boots that double as hiking boots. They should be able to sell them for $500 a pair.

Steve   

[canuck750]

The decline in Harley Davidson stock value is alarming, I question if it foreshadows a collapse in sales similar to what the British motorcycle industry witnessed in the late 60's?

Harley's marketing of a 'lifestyle', selling everything from socks to sunglasses has been a great success, but fashion trends pass and public interest moves on.

What is the percentage of Harley owners who bought the brand to join the 'it club' only to find they really don't ride much and the shine starts to wear off all that pretty paint and chrome? I see more late model Harleys for sale than any other brand, and all those used bikes don't help new model sales.

Harley could build anything the competition offers, probably to an equal level of quality but it appears Harley loyalists prefer the current design. Attempts to break the mold have failed to attract new buyers or appeal to current HD owners.

Seems like a case of being a victim of their own success.

[Lannis]

Or maybe it's just time.

In this fast-changing world, how likely is it that a company that depends on consumer likes and trends, and who is tied closely to technology and infrastructure, can be successful for over 100 years?   I mean, it's amazing when it DOES happen.

We've already mentioned Sears and Montgomery Ward; there's JC Penney and Macy's and Greyhound Bus and Universal/Columbia/United Artists Pictures and Boeing.

Not to mention our very own Moto Guzzi.   

It's amazing that any of them make it that long.

Lannis

[Rough Edge racing]

  Around 1950 Harley petitioned the US gov't for protection againt the increasing importation of British bikes hurting Harley sales ...The gov't declined...Around 1980 Harley was again in trouble from its decline from AMF ownership and the company was trying to recover with the introduction of the EVO engine...US gov't did help this time..
  Many of you hate Harley and the riders. But it was quite the maketing success... I often shake my head looking at the weekend Harley warriors and their dressed up bikes...But the riders I have talked to have been friendly ...I also find many European bike riders to be an arrogant bunch at times with fancy brand name boots and leathers talking about craft beers...

[s1120]

One thing that was touched on here...  There are a LOT of HD's out there!!  and they sold a LOT of bikes in the 90's, and 2000's...  And really from the late 80's on up...really started to build a darn good product...  So this HUGE glut of bikes out in the market are still going strong...  and there was a LOT of bikes put out..  So I guess to some point they have been a victim to their own success. I mean.. you want a new touring HD...  you have a LOT of options and they are not all new... 

[blu guzz]

i have been bitten by the harley bug from time to time.  i bought a 1200 sporty in 92 after they switched to the evo engine, belt drive and 5 speed.  it was a very good motorcycle and never had a moment's problem except for draining the tank too fast.  again, in 2006, i bought a wide glide right after they put the 6 speed on and made a host of smaller improvements to the dyna chassis.  it was an excellent motorcycle and i put 17,000 miles on it in 2.5 years.  during these stints, i enjoyed reading about the lifestyle events such as sturgis and daytona but never actually participated.  i have to admit that it was fun to be part of a big club, even thought i was only a small part.  i bought some, but not much chrome during those times.  you could buy something for the bike for as little as $25. 
so, i have nothing but fond memories of my harleys.  never say never, the bug may bite again.