Predictions:electric cars

[pebra]

I have no pretenses about "Green Energy"  Everything comes with a cost and trade-offs. 
 

Good point, well put!

[twowheeladdict]

What rate does your local power company pay for power put back into the grid not produced by them? Around here its pennies per kilowatt hour. I had a very good customer get burned buy this promise. Turns out its way more cost effective to turn their plant off than to sell excess power company electricity.

I don't have a pressing need for solar yet, but I doubt they would give a credit since we have some of the cheapest electric in the country.  I liked GliderJohn's response about matching the system with the need. 

My monthly average for 2020 with us home 24/7 minus 30 days camping for me, and 10 days camping for my wife is a whopping $117.72 a month on total electric property. 

[LowRyter]

BD9- they'll be gas stations and repair shops for the foreseeable future so long as there are collectors. 

For the general public, there are already mandates planned to cease ICE production by the end of the decade and to get them off the road in 20 years.  No doubt they'll be allowances for collectors and owners of legacy vehicles but those may not be for practical transportation due lack of ready fuel and maintenance facilities. 

Whether those goals will be achieved is speculation but it appears that we're headed that way with few impediments.

[Unk Tantor]

My add-on predictions:
Blue (with Carbon capture ) then Green (from renewable electricity) Hydrogen fuels heavy industry & shipping
Electric bicycles in cities is the future
Passive Haus principles for new residential buildings
home battery storage systems  and smart meters creating demand response tariffs ; eg you're paid to feed your EV & home batteries into the grid at peak times.

[Arctic Fox]

What you think about this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odyWeWoNNng

[mechanicsavant]

My point was the old adage, if it’s go wheels it’s going to give ya trouble. Ive heard all the predictions as to how trouble freed electric vehicles will be . That said a local towing agency has towed a number of electric & hybrid units . After all if they’re impervious to failure why do they have a warranty. The same can be said for solar panels. Don’t get me wrong I’m not anti progress just skeptical of the utopian  promises made . I’ve noticed hydro power is kinda a back burner issue yet the potential for power storage is relatively pollution free . During periods of low demand use the power to pump water into a reasovoir then upon demand release it no expensive, short lived relatively battery required  . Centuries ago an Archimedes screw or screws were used to raise the water until needed. Once again just my $.02

[Rough Edge racing]

Hi All,                                                                                          2-21-21


                                  "No fair comparison between small Nordic countries and even Germany with the far larger USA."

Yup, you're right.  The good 'ol US of A has:

1)  far more research universities and high energy laboratories (new technology breeding grounds)

2)  far more solar insolation (watts/square meter)

3)  far more dam potential rivers  (TVA, etc.)

4)  far more flat pains (reliable wind power)

5)  far more coastline (wave/wind power)

6)  with the exception of Greenland and Iceland, far more potential geothermal energy

...than all those countries (combined) that I had mentioned.

I'm not trying to start an argument here (there is no basis for one).  These are simply facts...mathematica lly verified facts.  You can believe me, I recognize that each power producer has its drawbacks.  The laws of thermodynamics explicitly state that it is impossible to convert one form of energy to another without some form of waste.

As a nation, we can do better...and I believe we will.  Remember, in the grand scheme of the world...we're still a baby (young) country...but we're making headway.

Be well, stay well,
DougG

The USA has 330 million people and a far more diverse population that the countries you mentioned...It's far more difficult to get a consensus of opinion on  anything...

[pebra]

What you think about this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odyWeWoNNng

The BMW i3 is a nice looking car, but extremely compact so not very practical.
With a compact car (I like compact cars  ) I would go for one that could carry passengers in the rear seats and a little luggage. Peugeot e-208 and e-2008, Nissan Leaf (one of my daughters has one, I like driving it) and VW Golf are good fully electric examples.

The i3 was a best seller here a few years ago. Not many sold now, new car models are more advanced, and as mentioned it's extremely compact.

Why do you want one? 

[twowheeladdict]

My point was the old adage, if it’s go wheels it’s going to give ya trouble. Ive heard all the predictions as to how trouble freed electric vehicles will be . That said a local towing agency has towed a number of electric & hybrid units . After all if they’re impervious to failure why do they have a warranty. The same can be said for solar panels. Don’t get me wrong I’m not anti progress just skeptical of the utopian  promises made . I’ve noticed hydro power is kinda a back burner issue yet the potential for power storage is relatively pollution free . During periods of low demand use the power to pump water into a reasovoir then upon demand release it no expensive, short lived relatively battery required  . Centuries ago an Archimedes screw or screws were used to raise the water until needed. Once again just my $.02

So, I'm guessing you don't ride a Moto Guzzi. 

Hydro is king here in the Tennessee Valley and no shortage of water flow.  The dams also tamed the river to make it navigable. 

Take a look at the Smith Mountain Lake Hydro Dam in VA    It is a pump storage Hydro Dam.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smith_Mountain_Dam
The US has 21 GW of pump storage Hydroelectric.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydroelectric_power_in_the_United_States#Pumped_storage

[Arctic Fox]

Why do you want one? 

As electric cars ... those can be found pretty decent price range as second hand.

[Unk Tantor]

What you think about this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odyWeWoNNng

my retired friend had one of these , loves it . Its from the design school of thought that electric cars need to be stripped down to save weight  so rather sparse inside . Another friend looked at the i£ but in the end went for an VW eGolf , as that looks like a normal ICE Golf until you pop the bonnet.

[Old Jock]

I too struggled with the Free Electricity concept. It's been a while since I looked at what state the industry is at now, but I don't believe renewables on their own are going to even look at the coming shortfall let alone make any kind of dent in it.

Given the timescales being banded about by governments, it's already too late for nuclear which takes forever to design and build and IMHO is about the only viable option on the table as of now. Sure there is talk of carbon capture, cleaner fossil fuel burning, large battery banks etc:

Already talk here in Blighty on the media of placing a tax onto gas, as they want to discourage domestic gas boilers and persuade people to purchase heat pumps. I doubt that will happen anytime soon, given the cost and performance of them.

Given that almost all energy requirements in this Brave New World will be electricity and demand will start to soar, government here is doing what government does, kicking the obvious critical (but hard to address) issues into the long grass and instead talking about all the easy options.

That's why I don't think it will happen at anything like the timescales being banded around and there is going to be a lot more people heading for energy poverty (This is not accounting for the fact we have a private sector energy industry which has been ripping us off for a long time into the bargain).

I doubt the electorate would stand for it and whoever gets in shall have to slow down or row back some policies.

I'm not trying to be political here, I don't care who or what colour or flag they represent, it's just the way I see things going. Lots of talk but no serious attempts to address the Elephant in the room

[nbags]

changes are coming how soon ??? There will be a lot of industries and jobs lost and hopefully some new jobs created. Oil change places gone, exhaust systems gone , dealerships gone as gm and ford trying to sell vehicles direct thru a loop hole . Lets face reality which is a good percent of young people would be happy calling a car to pick them up and drop them off at their destination while playing on their phones and not worry about driving . A lot of things are loss and more will be I remember my father showing me how to clean a car at a very young age how many 13 years old know how to wash a car . It's kind of the internet a lot of information but some thing were gone because of it , I miss going to library to do research and learn how to something now it is just a click away , I enjoyed going to a store and looking at something before purchasing I'm kind of angry , I'm also happy because we do need to make things cleaner , I'm kind of sad and I'm very confused . I will do my best to change with times can't fight technology .

[rocker59]

Lets face reality which is a good percent of young people would be happy calling a car to pick them up and drop them off at their destination while playing on their phones and not worry about driving . 

This phenomenon has been going on for years.  Uber and Lyft. 

[wymple]

The free electricity crap is just that. While sunshine & wind may be free to tap, the machinery & infrastructure to do it will never be free. They may get the costs ridiculously low, and they will, but there is no such thing as free.

[oldbike54]

 Something to consider , as we move slowly to more people working from home the demand on the electric grid should diminish . Fewer offices needing climate control and lighting . Combined with more energy efficient appliances we might not see quite the spike some are predicting .

 Another factor involved is the advent and implementation of small solar plants like both Gliderjohn and Luap have at their respective places . Every small solar plant reduces the load on the grid , as posted by our member from Finland , solar is almost ubiquitous in some places . Despite our turtle like speed in adapting new tech here , it is happening , and will continue to do so . Hell , even tech as proven as tankless water heaters still baffles many of us , and yet at least two WG members have installed them after asking me about their efficiency and durability .

 Dusty

[Tusayan]

The free electricity crap is just that. While sunshine & wind may be free to tap, the machinery & infrastructure to do it will never be free. They may get the costs ridiculously low, and they will, but there is no such thing as free.

In the absence of massive new energy storage capability, the infrastructure is doubled when using solar and wind because you need to have a reliable backup when those renewables are not available for an extended period - no sun for week, ice storms causing issues with windmills and so on.  Reliable and renewable are not mutually exclusive, there is hydro and geothermal, but mostly that means natural gas, coal or nuclear plants.  Countries or states that don’t want those on their territory rely on the ability to import power across borders when needed from those who do, and thereby remain green to those who aren’t looking too closely.   The game is to compare demand with installed renewable capacity and if they are equal to say there’s a local green generating capacity equal to demand, neglecting to mention the installed capacity that can actually be realized when averaged over a year.  The difference has to be produced somewhere, even if it’s imported from outside the sphere of local politics.

On a global basis the main theoretical advantage of electric transportation is the ability to use very expensive renewables when they are available (with the expensive cost properly factoring in the price of a reliable underutilized backup into the total) combined with the resource saving that comes with the higher thermal efficiency of gas fired plants versus small IC engines. If you go along with that and do find somebody willing to pay for it, the huge increase in infrastructure cost ends up saving a fraction of the non-renewable fossil fuels that would otherwise be used.  In reality, now, there’s no way to pay for that situation except in limited cases and places so electric cars are mainly powered by natural gas burned in efficient engines (power plants).  No amount of making and selling electric cars will change that situation without huge new infrastructure cost and/or new grid energy storage technology. Just as battery capacity is the limiting factor for the practicality of electric cars, I think energy storage capacity on the grid is the limiting factor for the practicality of using relatively unreliable renewable power without a fossil fuel backup.  For now even when and where renewables are available that backup (or in most cases primary) source of electrical power is coal and natural gas plants, with natural gas slowly replacing coal due to cheaper gas availability.

[LowRyter]

my retired friend had one of these , loves it . Its from the design school of thought that electric cars need to be stripped down to save weight  so rather sparse inside . Another friend looked at the i£ but in the end went for an VW eGolf , as that looks like a normal ICE Golf until you pop the bonnet.

I've driven the Chevy Bolt, not the i3 or VW, I think the Bolt has it over for both of them regarding practically, range, performance, and (Guzzi content) cost.

[LowRyter]

changes are coming how soon ??? There will be a lot of industries and jobs lost and hopefully some new jobs created. Oil change places gone, exhaust systems gone , dealerships gone as gm and ford trying to sell vehicles direct thru a loop hole . Lets face reality which is a good percent of young people would be happy calling a car to pick them up and drop them off at their destination while playing on their phones and not worry about driving . A lot of things are loss and more will be I remember my father showing me how to clean a car at a very young age how many 13 years old know how to wash a car . It's kind of the internet a lot of information but some thing were gone because of it , I miss going to library to do research and learn how to something now it is just a click away , I enjoyed going to a store and looking at something before purchasing I'm kind of angry , I'm also happy because we do need to make things cleaner , I'm kind of sad and I'm very confused . I will do my best to change with times can't fight technology .

The lost jobs are a positive thing.  Pay everyone more wages and work fewer hours.  Share productivity gains with society. 

Disagree with that? Then plow a field with a mule and forget about the tractors.  The 40 hour work week is 80 years old.  Let's go to 35. Everyone gets 5 hours off of free time or add 5 hours of additional overtime to everyone working 40.

[tris]

The first law of thermodynamics, also known as Law of Conservation of Energy, states that energy can neither be created nor destroyed; energy can only be transferred or changed from one form to another

The concept of "green energy" has always puzzled me and the assertion that essentially it just needs harvesting via sola panels, windmills, wave generators, etc. and has no effect on anything

The First Law of Thermodynamics might suggests that could be problematic

This "free energy" generally comes to us  in one form or another, so if we gather this energy to do things humans see as important its no longer available to do whatever it was doing before

Discuss

[wymple]

The lost jobs are a positive thing.  Pay everyone more wages and work fewer hours.  Share productivity gains with society. 

Disagree with that? Then plow a field with a mule and forget about the tractors.  The 40 hour work week is 80 years old.  Let's go to 35. Everyone gets 5 hours off of free time or add 5 hours of additional overtime to everyone working 40.

Too many people still think you can live in the past on a large scale. Buggy & harness makers were jobs lost. Corn used to be picked by hand. Most oil at one time came from whaling. It's a never ending cycle and tech & time wait for nobody. Coal, low cost or not, is plain damn dirty. People today do not remember the coal soot covering everything anywhere it was being used. Google up some dirty coal pics from the early 1900s. I saw a lot of it in Chicago in the 70s still. There is always a better way down the road.

[BrotherJim]

Unfortunately, Investor Owned Utilities have been moving ahead quite aggressively to end net metering, or selling surplus energy back to the grid.  Check local listings.  The idea of having to pay customers for energy they have generated privately does not sit well with the investors of these huge utility companies.   

[Tusayan]

US electric generation from coal is dropping every year as natural gas rises, but is still about the same as nuclear, hydro and wind combined.   Those three categories are each about a third of the total - 30% coal, 30% natural gas, 30% nuclear and renewables in combination, 10% miscellaneous.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_power_in_the_United_States#/media/File%3AElectricity_Generation_Sources_for_the_United_States.svg

[Bulldog9]

The lost jobs are a positive thing.  Pay everyone more wages and work fewer hours.  Share productivity gains with society. 

Disagree with that? Then plow a field with a mule and forget about the tractors.  The 40 hour work week is 80 years old.  Let's go to 35. Everyone gets 5 hours off of free time or add 5 hours of additional overtime to everyone working 40.

LOL, I've been working 60-80 hour work weeks for 30 years. When you find your work rewarding and meaningful, it is not a burden. Healthy living and making the best of your 'off time' is a skill that should be focussed on. People working 40 who think that their quality of life will go up by giving an extra 5 hours will be just as miserable if they don't change. Big brother knowing best can NEVER replace personal responsibility, initiative and outlook.

Productivity/wages/cost of living and the economy is not an open cycle that you can just randomly 'change'. Advances in technology has increasingly brought changes to work loads and jobs, and will continue to do so. Segments of industry/manufacturing/production will always change, people need to change with it. 

[PJPR01]

Hell , even tech as proven as tankless water heaters still baffles many of us , and yet at least two WG members have installed them after asking me about their efficiency and durability .  Dusty 

I installed one as well in my other house, major space saver, so far has been flawless.  Need to see how long it lasts compared to a traditional water tank, but having "instant on" unlimited hot water was a plus.  It's a bit of an investment up front, so I hope it lasts at least twice as long as the traditional water heater.

Solar panels on the roof seem intriguing, but haven't been able to get a high level of confidence from the companies that offer this service here, they seem flaky here at least in my market.  I'd love to find a good company that could provide fair quotes, an understanding of how long the panels would last.  The "savings" of not having to replace the standard roof as often could be factored in, but it seems like that is small by comparison to the actual cost of the panels.  How much does an individual panel weigh by the way?

Seems strange that you cannot "sell back" to the grid any excess power...why is that?

[LowRyter]

The first law of thermodynamics, also known as Law of Conservation of Energy, states that energy can neither be created nor destroyed; energy can only be transferred or changed from one form to another

The concept of "green energy" has always puzzled me and the assertion that essentially it just needs harvesting via sola panels, windmills, wave generators, etc. and has no effect on anything

The First Law of Thermodynamics might suggests that could be problematic

This "free energy" generally comes to us  in one form or another, so if we gather this energy to do things humans see as important its no longer available to do whatever it was doing before

Discuss

I don't see how your post has anything to do with the viability of cleaner and renewable energy.  I don't understand the term "free energy" and how the laws of thermodynamics applies.

[Bulldog9]

The first law of thermodynamics, also known as Law of Conservation of Energy, states that energy can neither be created nor destroyed; energy can only be transferred or changed from one form to another

The concept of "green energy" has always puzzled me and the assertion that essentially it just needs harvesting via sola panels, windmills, wave generators, etc. and has no effect on anything

The First Law of Thermodynamics might suggests that could be problematic

This "free energy" generally comes to us  in one form or another, so if we gather this energy to do things humans see as important its no longer available to do whatever it was doing before

Discuss

Interesting recent study that shows that a high percentage of solar energy is converted into heat which could drastically raise local and global climate temperatures. BLUF.. 15% power 85% heat.... Everything is a tradeoff. My vote is cleaner burning more efficient fossil fuels.
Article
https://weather.com/science/environment/news/solar-energy-contributes-climate-change-study#:~:text=The%20study%2C%20conducted%20by%20climate,urban%20area%20temperatures%20when%20said

Source of article.
en=9UpIos5nbkRkNcJLRAE6Q9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0Mhk46FmRPT6xmGxMzCdDQj_TR4jrCkwdeqZFN1QrXjfHoK87yJZqypLgWpzOmK61DNYfeT2hs3rYl59iPKYONBGn_0izI1woInoyvtFs9WQ5P1OaaNW3cnY-LYYJRk6H_EBuxVUw5DaQ-U00hLlUoY-eiBVldc-UBSKD4nB-IvLSLtcTLfkMV0sfgMClr8tqa1JbmWuKg2lsHfY-urVpePIglAB4wKIlgDhSCjewcgNoYbWqaqj03hRI9BTLmBNLGs9yxMB_s7u9sURFWs3EX1&tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com" class="bbc_link" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2843.epdf?referrer_access_tok en=9UpIos5nbkRkNcJLRAE6Q9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0Mhk46FmRPT6xmGxMzCdDQj_TR4jrCkwdeqZFN1QrXjfHoK87yJZqypLgWpzOmK61DNYfeT2hs3rYl59iPKYONBGn_0izI1woInoyvtFs9WQ5P1OaaNW3cnY-LYYJRk6H_EBuxVUw5DaQ-U00hLlUoY-eiBVldc-UBSKD4nB-IvLSLtcTLfkMV0sfgMClr8tqa1JbmWuKg2lsHfY-urVpePIglAB4wKIlgDhSCjewcgNoYbWqaqj03hRI9BTLmBNLGs9yxMB_s7u9sURFWs3EX1&tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com

[Old Jock]

I don't see how your post has anything to do with the viability of cleaner and renewable energy.  I don't understand the term "free energy" and how the laws of thermodynamics applies.

Perhaps tris is just trying to stimulate debate, AFAIK he's not stated anything that's patently false.

It is perhaps a sideways look at the topic, for example there seems to be some debate whether large windfarms can alter localised weather due to the energy absorbed

Must admit I have some skin in the game on his viewpoint as an engineer (albeit not a very good one) the concept of free energy bothered me too.

That said the forces being tapped are large and our extraction small

I see Bulldog9 has also posted on Solar Panels

If that's Off Topic too then I apologize

[Gliderjohn]

From PJPR01:

Seems strange that you cannot "sell back" to the grid any excess power...why is that?

It varies state to state. The electric Co. point of view is that they want to discourage expansion of solar use by customers because it less income from those customers but they still have to provide the infrastructure. In KS at least one company had requested to charge a higher rate to customers with solar, but was denied.
GliderJohn

[blackcat]

I installed a tankless water heater about 8-10 years ago, had one problem soon after installation with the mother board and it was replaced under warranty but no problems since that time.  I didn't really notice any savings in gas usage but it saved space in our utility room. Getting hot water to each source took more time until I re-plumbed the entire house with Pex and a manifold system which has less bleed off as it specific draws the hot water to each hot water home run.

I have considered installing the solar panels myself but the local permitting issues along with the architectural review board approval process is a pain in the a@ss. And I wouldn't do it unless I had a new metal roof installed.