Am I over thinking this?

[bikeridertim]

I'm interested in what the Guzzi family think about my MGX. I bought my 2017 MGX 4 years ago brand new (March 2019) had the brake recall done and rode it almost a year to the day and she dropped a valve at 6500 miles.     The motor was replaced under warranty.  I now am about to turn 20,000 miles. I keep the oil changed and check the valves every 6200 miles. Everything is stock except for the Mistrals, no map, no nothing.  So my question is, would you have trust and faith to take off on a 2500 mile trip?? I know of at least 4 other MGX's that have had the same trouble. (dropped valve) I don't seam to have the trust in it as I did with my 99 EV. This thing isn't the easiest bike to get worked on, out on the road,  Am I over thinking this?   

[tazio]

I believe you may be.
"If we worried 'bout the weather, we'd never head off on any adventure"...
And really,  that's what it's all about anyway. Working through obstacles and coming out the other side better for it. I like that you've kept it stock, seems like most electrical gremlins are owner induced..
Would love to see pics if you ever take that trip! 😉

[Tom H]

No...You are not over thinking this IMHO.

Valid concerns. What happened when it dropped a valve? Full engine seizure or just messed things up?

Full seizure, I probably would sell it if this is a known issue. But then again, could have just been a bad batch and all the rest will go 500K miles without issue.

So...If any issue would just be an inconvenience, go for it, I think I would do so. Life threatening, take something else and again get rid of it.

Either way, enjoy your trip.

[bikeridertim]

No...You are not over thinking this IMHO.

Valid concerns. What happened when it dropped a valve? Full engine seizure or just messed things up?

It just messed it up but good. The entire motor was replaced. And really what are the odds of dropping a valve in a second motor???   

[Kev m]

You're over thinking this.

It's not that it's an MGX. It's the same motor as all the 1400's right?

How many have we heard about?!?

Screw it.

What's the worst that happens? Even in the 0.001% chance it happens again, what are you going to do?

Adapt and overcome right?

Ride on and stop worrying.

[Tom H]

Then it's sorta sounding like you should give it a shot.

I had a full engine seizure that locked up the rear wheel on a '72 Eldo. Fortunately while in a straight line at 70mph. Pulled in clutch and coasted off to the side of the freeway. Ya shouldda seen the rain groove marks into the rear tire.

Also had my Ambo break the head off a valve at about 70mph on the freeway. Heard a bang but it didn't lock up. Blew a hole in the piston and killed a head. If I wasn't worried about the derbies in the engine, I could have rode it the rest of the way home on one cylinder.

Your choice. Again, an inconvenience or life threatening.

Enjoy,
Tom

[Tkelly]

Just ride!!If it breaks you can handle it.

[SIR REAL ED]

Yep!

If you ever ask yourself if you are overthinking something, then you are definitely overthinking it!

[Scout63]

I think the last line of your signature says it all. If you like the bike, take a chance on it.

[Moparnut72]

I had an Audace, basically the same bike. I bought it kind of used but that is another story. The manager of the dealership took it for a spin before I showed up to test ride it. It had been on the dealership floor for a long time. It dropped a valve also. Guzzi sent a new motor for it. I still bought it and rode it for a couple of years with no issues. I didn't let the unfortunate situation bother me I rode it states away from home with no worries.
kk

[John A]

Just do it. You can find a million excuses not to. It’s always a roll of the dice that you usually win.

[Huzo]

It just messed it up but good. The entire motor was replaced. And really what are the odds of dropping a valve in a second motor???   

Mathematically speaking, exactly the same as if you’d never dropped the first. The odds of it happening on the first one are now 100%, because it did.
The fate of the second motor is not influenced by the history of the first.
It’s the old question…
The chances of winning the lottery of a million tickets twice, is the odds of the first x the odds of the second
1/1,000,000 x 1/1,000,000 = 1/1,000,000,000,000
BUT
The odds of winning it a second time AFTER you have won it once is
1/1 x 1/1,000,000 = 1/1,000,000
Because the first outcome is fixed before the second gamble is taken…

[moto-uno]

  Now there's the best use of arithmetic I've ever seen 
   

[Perazzimx14]

If you don't trust the bike don't take it. If it's going to be wearing on your mind that failure is imminent it's going to be a 2500-mile buzzkill. Buy something like a v-Strom and ride and enjoy the trip with confidence. When you return sell it, unless you've been converted then sell the Guzzi.

There is no shame in riding a bike you trust even if it's a different brand.



 

[twowheeladdict]

Many have concerns when heading out on a long ride. That is what preparation is all about.

I have met guys who travel with their title. If they see something they want 1000 miles from home and work out a trade they continue their trip on a different bike.
Some do it in case the bike has issues. Either trade it or leave it and buy another bike to continue with the trip.

If you don’t have those kind of resources then get a good extended service plan and towing service.

Don’t beat on the bike during the trip and keep an eye on things.

I had a Kawasaki engine that needed a rebuild at 50,000 miles and thankfully it was covered by the warranty. At 60,000 miles I traded it because it was always in the back of my mind that a local technician rebuilt the engine.

Good luck with your decision, but whatever you decide to do, don’t cancel the ride. Opportunities to take epic rides become increasingly more difficult as we age.

[Moparnut72]

There has been a fair amount of negative press regarding the 1400's. I never let it bother me, the worst thing I did as far as worries go is that I bought a V7lll as a backup. I never needed it for that reason. I loved my Audace as long as I had it, unfortunately it got to heavy for me and I sold it. I miss it to this day and the home screen on my computer is it's picture. I never worried about traveling on it no matter how far I went. I always figure if it broke fairly close to home I would go get my truck and trailer. If I was a long way from home a rental truck. It doesn't matter what I am riding the policy is still the same if I can't get my ride fixed on the road. For me a vacation is not going to be spoiled by worry. Just go and enjoy your MGX.
kk

[SIR REAL ED]

This thread is a fascinating insight into how we humans think.  Often, "rationally" or "logically" are not the proper descriptions.

Huzo is right!!  How often has that sentence ever been typed or spoken?  Luv ya Bruh!   

The fate of the first broken engine or part has nothing to do whatsoever with the possible future of another engine or part.

Physics rules!  Metal/rubber/plastic really don't care about our feelings!  Hardware is not governed by human emotions!  (TM)

Whatever part was destroyed previously on the bike isn't there anymore is it?

Lets throw some more variables into the equation.  What are the chances of your bike changing into a murdercycle and you becoming an organ donor?

Statistically speaking, IF one murdercycle/organ donor incident occurs per every 100,000 miles riden, then do your chances of getting killed increase as your mileage increases?  If you are still alive, should you stop riding at 90,000 or 95,000 miles?  Of course not.  The previous miles don't count, the risk per mile ahead does not change.  Actually, due to skill and experience acquired, your risk is going down per every mile ridden.

Statisticians front and center, please bring your computers!!!

[SIR REAL ED]

I'm interested in what the Guzzi family think about my MGX. I bought my 2017 MGX 4 years ago brand new (March 2019) had the brake recall done and rode it almost a year to the day and she dropped a valve at 6500 miles.     The motor was replaced under warranty.  I now am about to turn 20,000 miles. I keep the oil changed and check the valves every 6200 miles. Everything is stock except for the Mistrals, no map, no nothing.  So my question is, would you have trust and faith to take off on a 2500 mile trip?? I know of at least 4 other MGX's that have had the same trouble. (dropped valve) I don't seam to have the trust in it as I did with my 99 EV. This thing isn't the easiest bike to get worked on, out on the road,  Am I over thinking this?

You should have more confidence than before.  Statistically speaking, the reliability of the bike has gone up.

If MG produced X number of MGX's with N number of valve defects, then the chance of it happening in the first instance is N divided by X.  After the first failure, the chance of it happening to the next bike is N-1 divided by X.  Every bike that fails reduces the  number N by one.

As soon as N number of bikes drop their valves, the remaining MGX will be just as reliable as other MG's, statistically speaking.

[SIR REAL ED]

You should have more confidence than before.  Statistically speaking, the reliability of the bike has gone up.

If MG produced X number of MGX's with N number of valve defects, then the chance of it happening in the first instance is N divided by X.  After the first failure, the chance of it happening to the next bike is N-1 divided by X.  Every bike that fails reduces the  number N by one.

As soon as N number of bikes drop their valves, the remaining MGX will be just as reliable as other MG's, statistically speaking.

Correction to previous post.  The probability of increasing reliability assumes that after a production run of X engines, MG figured out what was causing the dropped valves, fixed the problem, and that all replacement engines come from the production run of improved engines.  If N/X of all the engines in question have the problem, then the probability of failure will not change.  Each engine is another spin of the same Roulette wheel.  Same odd each time.

Again, Huzo was right!   

Aprilia had a similar problem with their RXV/SXV engines.  If they blew up, the replacement engine had the same defects.  the fix was to tear down the replacement engine before use and fix the known problems.  Aprilia saw no need to do so.  Replacement of the engine satisfied the warranty claims.

[rustygman]

Definitely go for it. It will be fine, and if it's not you will sort it out.

I have just returned to the UK from the south of France where I had an electrical on my California and had to use a power pack on every start on the way back (long story, short). Still, I overcame, got it home and nobody died. You have nothing to fear, just go.

[bad Chad]

Put me down as another, for over thinking it.

[Huzo]

I’m often given to muse on this subject of “chance”.
I’m no exception by any means, next time I go to Europe I won’t take my Norge because I feel that there are too many components that are beyond my ability to diagnose that have 16 years and 210,000 km on them, the “ chances” that something will fail in Honningsvag are no greater than in my driveway, but the CONSEQUENCES of that failure are….
We fear consequence and are hard wired to scan the future for danger, my helmet has NEVER hit the ground with my head in it, I could have safely ridden my entire life without it, but I only know that now that the past has been written.
But would I therefore ride through the city for 5 minutes without it…?
No.
Here’s the thing…..
We do a hell of a lot to mitigate risk and minimise the chances of harm  on our bikes, yet sudden and instant death passes 2 metres from us hundreds of thousands of times in the opposite direction when a car whizzes by with the texting driver at the wheel.
I fear a mid air collision, more than a propeller blade coming out of the hub in the Cessna, yet the mid air is less likely statistically….Why ?
We rate the level of risk as a function of the severity of consequence, not the possibility of the occurrence.
I fear collision with wildlife, more than breaking a shoelace yet I know which one is more likely, I just don’t “care” about the second one as much so I don’t worry about it happening, I just enact a plan if it does.

What are the chances…?
There is no “chance” in our lives, everyone’s future is cast in stone but we can alter what that future is and do everyday by the totality of our actions. We can say…
”See…? I did change my future by booking a ticket to the ‘States instead of the UK…”
No you did not “change your future”, you just chose to take a different turn and have arrived where you always were going to be from the point where time began.

As for the bike…?
As the great Man himself sayeth…
“If thy nose offendeth thee, cut it off….”
If the bike worries you…?
Leave it home and take the Prius, but don’t be disappointed when life begins to taste like a cardboard box and all your colours turn to beige…..

Go in peace….

[lucian]

Overthinking it probably. I have crossed the country from Maine to Montana and back and  have done multiple thousand + mile trips on our 2014 1400 custom . I wouldn't even think twice about  striking out again with 30 plus thousand on the clock . That said , how you maintain and treat your motorcycle will have everything to do with how many trouble free miles you'll get in return.  A dropped valve is usually the result of lack of proper operation or maintenance or both,  and less commonly a manufacturing defect.  Over revving,  insufficient valve lash, detonation due to improper tune, or lugging ect.  My advice is to have your MGX tuned and maintained to spec and run it with respect for its limitations. Importantly ,keep your valve gaps in spec. Exhaust valves,  need sufficient time to dissipate heat to the cylinder head or else bad things will happen. Follow the the recommended maintenance schedule and get on with it. And if anything weird should happen, you have an incredible  bunch here  watching your back.  The 1400 is one of the best mile munching bikes ever made. Have a great trip and share some Pics!

[Bulldog9]

I'm interested in what the Guzzi family think about my MGX. I bought my 2017 MGX 4 years ago brand new (March 2019) had the brake recall done and rode it almost a year to the day and she dropped a valve at 6500 miles.     The motor was replaced under warranty.  I now am about to turn 20,000 miles. I keep the oil changed and check the valves every 6200 miles. Everything is stock except for the Mistrals, no map, no nothing.  So my question is, would you have trust and faith to take off on a 2500 mile trip?? I know of at least 4 other MGX's that have had the same trouble. (dropped valve) I don't seam to have the trust in it as I did with my 99 EV. This thing isn't the easiest bike to get worked on, out on the road,  Am I over thinking this?

Likely yes.............. If the bike has put out 20K trouble free miles, at a minimum it about equal with any other motorcycle for reliability and such. Just enjoy, and embrace the process

[SIR REAL ED]

Excellent thread. 

How many people spend a lifetime trying to logically deal with a few dozen variables life throws at them each day, while not rationally dealing with the hundreds of potential variables floating around in our heads every minute?

As someone once said:

"I am an old man and have known a great many troubles, most of which have never happened."

or

"How much pain have cost us the things that have never occurred?"

or

"My life seems as one long obstacle course, with me as the chief obstacle."

[Texas Turnip]

Man, I feel your pain.
I never would travel to Oklahoma as them people think 3.2 is good beer.
Nor will I go to Louisiana as they eat nutria and put everything in Gumbo.
And I can't head south in Texas as the salt air and humidity makes some strange characters,
Forget about going west where they ain't got trees and like it.

No sir I'm skeered to go anyplace.
You know, a thousand things could go wrong, but chances are you could go and have a good time.

Tex
.

[bikeridertim]

Thank you to all who helped me see the logical side to this. One of the best things about this forum is your honesty and willingness to say what you feel! 
Sometimes  the most obvious solution is seen through other peoples eyes!  Thanks again and Ride On!   

[Stretch]

Yes, you are.

You are a motorcyclist, and therefore by definition an optimist.

Do your pre-ride checks, top off the oil, gas, and air, and enjoy the ride!    

                                                         -Stretch

[Huzo]

Grappling with the issue is part of the fun.
If we were not in a privileged position, there’d be no decision to make
There is no wrong answer, as long as you believe it to be right.

[SIR REAL ED]

Grappling with the issue is part of the fun.
If we were not in a privileged position, there’d be no decision to make
There is no wrong answer, as long as you believe it to be right.

Amen.  First world problems are good problems to have.

Dirty little secret:  this is the equivalent of women window shopping!