*California 1400 Merged Threadfest*

[rocker59]

Just tell them the hp and torque figures and they will understand.

No.  They don't.  BTDT.

Piaggio has invested heavily in the 1400 trying to get a percentage of the American cruiser market, a few hundred won't cut it. The 1400 wasn't designed for the European market where gas taxes bring a gallon of gas to 10 plus dollars and weight and good handling are appreciated. Besides the average European rider is probably 160lbs Vs the average American rider at probably 220lbs, pillion rider are probably double that of Europe. Just sayin.........

Just sayin' what?

What "percentage" of the "American Market" do you think Piaggio expects to own with the Cal 14?



 

[bad Chad]

The old arm chair QB... it never tires.

[youcanrunnaked]

Cubic inches matter to the average pirate, and the new California doesn't measure up for those who place importance on displacement.

The TC88 is dead.  It's in the past.  80 cubic inches was the HD standard for many years.  It's also dead and gone.   

I think your view of the American cruiser market is myopic.  The move to 1700 - 2100cc cruisers is a recent phenomenon, and does not define the market.  It only defines a small slice of the new bike market.

Among new cruisers, there are lots of models with displacement under 1700cc, and their combined sales is probably larger than for bikes over 1700cc.  Bikes in the 1900+ range seem to be particularly slow sellers.  How many Rocket III's have you seen?

Cruiser riders just don't buy new bikes.  The market is overwhelmingly made up of used bikes.  Unlike the crash-and-burn disposable Japanese supersports, cruisers are very long-lived.  Craigslist is awash with them, and the vast majority are under 1700cc.  Going back to my example, the TC 88 is not dead.  It's alive and well and enjoyed regularly by hundreds of thousands of motorcycle enthusiasts (you know them as "pirates"), most of whom probably don't care that their Big Twin isn't the biggest of the Big Twins.

So, if you look at the entire market for cruisers in the US, a 1400cc bike is not small -- it's big.

[rocker59]

I think your view of the American cruiser market is myopic.  The move to 1700 - 2100cc cruisers is a recent phenomenon, and does not define the market.  It only defines a small slice of the new bike market.

To your mind, what "defines" the "cruiser market" in the USA?

Among new cruisers, there are lots of models with displacement under 1700cc, and their combined sales is probably larger than for bikes over 1700cc.  Bikes in the 1900+ range seem to be particularly slow sellers.  How many Rocket III's have you seen?

Do you have any links to information that supports your assertion?

Cruiser riders just don't buy new bikes.  The market is overwhelmingly made up of used bikes.  Unlike the crash-and-burn disposable Japanese supersports, cruisers are very long-lived.  Craigslist is awash with them, and the vast majority are under 1700cc.  Going back to my example, the TC 88 is not dead.  It's alive and well and enjoyed regularly by hundreds of thousands of motorcycle enthusiasts (you know them as "pirates"), most of whom probably don't care that their Big Twin isn't the biggest of the Big Twins.

We are talking about "new" California 1400s.  They compete with new cruisers in the new market.  I have never heard of a manufacturer having a marketing plan to compete with used motorcycles.  Have you?

So, if you look at the entire market for cruisers in the US, a 1400cc bike is not small -- it's big.

What is "the entire market" for cruisers in the USA?  

You can call 1400cc "big in the entire market" of cruisers all you want.  You may well believe that.  

Fact is, 1400 is just below the middle of the 650cc - 2200cc displacement range of what is found in cruisers.  and, it's less than the 1600-1800cc displacement of the top sellers from Harley/Honda/Yamaha/Kawasaki/Yamaha.

[Kev m]

I think your view of the American cruiser market is myopic.  The move to 1700 - 2100cc cruisers is a recent phenomenon, and does not define the market.  It only defines a small slice of the new bike market.

Among new cruisers, there are lots of models with displacement under 1700cc, and their combined sales is probably larger than for bikes over 1700cc.  Bikes in the 1900+ range seem to be particularly slow sellers.  How many Rocket III's have you seen?

Well, we are talking about NEW bike sales, not used. But I could argue that used bike sales of cruisers represent a lot of guys who have mid-ranged (by market standard) cruisers and are either getting out of riding, out of cruisers, or moving to a larger bike.

The small cruiser market is relatively small.

For starters, let's remember that HARLEY sales are more than HALF of the US market - so right off the bat in 2011 (last annual figures I could find) out of about 150k bikes sold in the US market, about 100-125k were a 96 (almost 1600cc) or 103 (almost 1700cc). And for 2012 and 2013 almost all of that 100-125k will be 103 (1700cc). So maybe the proliferation of the Sportster may account for 16% of Harley sales and maybe 8% of US cruiser sales - add to that the Vrod and I'll give you about 10% of US cruiser sales under 1400cc from Harley.

The big 4 Japanese brands represent the majority of the remaining cruiser market, with maybe Triumph becoming a major player.

Hondas look to be pretty much 750cc and 1300cc in that category these days, and I believe they'll make up maybe a solid 10% of the cruiser market (a swag based on their position of US bike sales for registered bikes being about 20% and sportbikes/standards making up a decent chunk of that). So we'll give 10% of the US cruiser market, under 1400cc to them. That number is probably generous as I suspect the Goldwing numbers should be included in the "cruiser" segment (as the touring bikes from Harley) since MOST of the market looks at motorcycles as "Cruisers and Sportbikes" but that's another discussion.

Yamaha taking the next biggest sales chunk has some 650cc, 950cc and 1100cc but even more 1670cc and 1854cc bikes in their "Star" lineup. I think they approach Honda sales figures for US street bikes, and likely share a similar split, with maybe a slightly higher percentage being cruisers as they seem to the metric of choice for a number of the non-Harley guys (maybe that Star branding worked in the end or maybe they just have more of a variety). At BEST this is a wash with maybe 50% of their crusier sales being below 1670cc - so MAYBE their cruisers have 5-10% of the US market and 3-5% under 1400cc.

Suzuki and Kawasaki are almost bit players in this, selling a fraction (well less than half if memory serves) of what Honda and Yamaha do in the US these days. Their lineups were devistated with no or few new bikes imported in the last few years. Suzuki has an 805cc, but the rest are mostly 1462cc and 1783cc. Looks like Kawasaki has some 900cc and 1700cc. Again,

I'd bet that more than half of Triumphs cruiser sales are Bonnie variants, but that's a drop in the bucket compared to Harley and they ARE still selling Tbirds (1600cc) or RIII's (2300cc). Overall Triumph sales are still way below Honda and Yamaha. But I thought I read it being over 10k in Bonnies at one point - so let's credit them with a generous 5% of US sales in UNDER 1600cc cruisers.

SO MAYBE MAYBE MAYBE we're looking at 35% of the US cruiser market is on bikes under 1400cc.

Let's remember that BMW, decided to pull out of the market as their marketing people decided that 1200cc was just to "small" to compete (despite the current R1200 models making 100 rwhp).

NOW LET'S TALK ABOUT MAYBE THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR WHEN IT COMES TO BIKES 1400cc and smaller.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF BIKES IN THE US CRUISER MARKET UNDER 1400cc are PRICED AT OR UNDER $10k with only a handful making it to maybe $12k.

EVERYTHING THAT IS $13k or above is 1600cc or larger and pretty much EVERYRTHING that is $15-19k is 1700cc or larger.

THAT is where the Cali 1400 will meet its biggest resistance is those who look at the PRICE TAG vs. the ENGINE SIZE and stop there. And I suspect (as do most OEM marketing guys from their lineups) is what MOST US customers do.

[Joe A.]

Note to self:

If I ever decide to engage Kev M in a debate, BE PREPARED.

At the minimum, have a tablet with Google warmed up very nearby ;-T :BEER: ;D

[northwest]

I have had a good look at the 1400 Cali in my local  dealer (Blackburn England GB) and after sitting on it I decided  yes it is big and heavy, viewed from the back it appears to be about as long and as wide as a Rocket111, it had panniers (side bags) fitted which did look decent but alas the panniers wont take a normal sized helmet, yes it will be fine for a good run across europe  but on the smaller overcrowded english roads well it could be hard work squeezing in and out of traffic on it,   the dealer will not be doing test rides untill around March, the UK price is around £16,000 which is around $25,396

[dddd]

[/quote]

Well, we are talking about NEW bike sales, not used. But I could argue that used bike sales of cruisers represent a lot of guys who have mid-ranged (by market standard) cruisers and are either getting out of riding, out of cruisers, or moving to a larger bike.

The small cruiser market is relatively small.

For starters, let's remember that HARLEY sales are more than HALF of the US market - so right off the bat in 2011 (last annual figures I could find) out of about 150k bikes sold in the US market, about 100-125k were a 96 (almost 1600cc) or 103 (almost 1700cc). And for 2012 and 2013 almost all of that 100-125k will be 103 (1700cc). So maybe the proliferation of the Sportster may account for 16% of Harley sales and maybe 8% of US cruiser sales - add to that the Vrod and I'll give you about 10% of US cruiser sales under 1400cc from Harley.

The big 4 Japanese brands represent the majority of the remaining cruiser market, with maybe Triumph becoming a major player.

Hondas look to be pretty much 750cc and 1300cc in that category these days, and I believe they'll make up maybe a solid 10% of the cruiser market (a swag based on their position of US bike sales for registered bikes being about 20% and sportbikes/standards making up a decent chunk of that). So we'll give 10% of the US cruiser market, under 1400cc to them. That number is probably generous as I suspect the Goldwing numbers should be included in the "cruiser" segment (as the touring bikes from Harley) since MOST of the market looks at motorcycles as "Cruisers and Sportbikes" but that's another discussion.

Yamaha taking the next biggest sales chunk has some 650cc, 950cc and 1100cc but even more 1670cc and 1854cc bikes in their "Star" lineup. I think they approach Honda sales figures for US street bikes, and likely share a similar split, with maybe a slightly higher percentage being cruisers as they seem to the metric of choice for a number of the non-Harley guys (maybe that Star branding worked in the end or maybe they just have more of a variety). At BEST this is a wash with maybe 50% of their crusier sales being below 1670cc - so MAYBE their cruisers have 5-10% of the US market and 3-5% under 1400cc.

Suzuki and Kawasaki are almost bit players in this, selling a fraction (well less than half if memory serves) of what Honda and Yamaha do in the US these days. Their lineups were devistated with no or few new bikes imported in the last few years. Suzuki has an 805cc, but the rest are mostly 1462cc and 1783cc. Looks like Kawasaki has some 900cc and 1700cc. Again,

I'd bet that more than half of Triumphs cruiser sales are Bonnie variants, but that's a drop in the bucket compared to Harley and they ARE still selling Tbirds (1600cc) or RIII's (2300cc). Overall Triumph sales are still way below Honda and Yamaha. But I thought I read it being over 10k in Bonnies at one point - so let's credit them with a generous 5% of US sales in UNDER 1600cc cruisers.

SO MAYBE MAYBE MAYBE we're looking at 35% of the US cruiser market is on bikes under 1400cc.

Let's remember that BMW, decided to pull out of the market as their marketing people decided that 1200cc was just to "small" to compete (despite the current R1200 models making 100 rwhp).

NOW LET'S TALK ABOUT MAYBE THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR WHEN IT COMES TO BIKES 1400cc and smaller.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF BIKES IN THE US CRUISER MARKET UNDER 1400cc are PRICED AT OR UNDER $10k with only a handful making it to maybe $12k.

EVERYTHING THAT IS $13k or above is 1600cc or larger and pretty much EVERYRTHING that is $15-19k is 1700cc or larger.

THAT is where the Cali 1400 will meet its biggest resistance is those who look at the PRICE TAG vs. the ENGINE SIZE and stop there. And I suspect (as do most OEM marketing guys from their lineups) is what MOST US customers do.

Wow  That's pretty much what I felt, especially the last point as its extremely relevant in this case

 Like I said earlier, I believe that MG has done A good job of building a heavy class tourer with what they had , its just that that market expects such huge capacity motors nowadays that its only having a 1400 motor will automatically have it dismissed by the vast amount of new bike buyers in that class.

Youcanrunnaked does make a good point though, in that it was only 5-6 years ago that a 1400 would have been acceptable in this class,had this bike come out then I doubt we would be having this same conversion unfortunately, we cant live in the past

I still believe that the new 1400 engine in a higher state of tune say 110-115 hp with decent low down torque and a strong mid range would have made the perfect engine for a light weight sports cruiser, complete with forward controls. Totally different market to a Diavell, think more of it as a far superior V Rod, this is where its 4 valve heads and bore and stroke ratios can be take advantage of

[rocker59]

unfortunately, we can't live in the past.

Exactly.

"In the past", HD big twins were 1200cc and there was nothing bigger.

Five years ago doesn't count.   What counts is what the current crop of full sized cruisers displace, and that number starts at 1600 and goes up.

[rboe]

I finally got my little Honda CB350F running and on the road. Years ago the wife would tour along side husband on his 750 and all was right with the world. Can you imagine the market for a 350 four today if someone was nuts enough to bring it to market much less a UJM 750?

[moltoguzzi]

No.  They don't.  BTDT.


Just sayin' what?

What "percentage" of the "American Market" do you think Piaggio expects to own with the Cal 14?



 

Just sayin a few hundred per year in sales in the biggest cruiser market will make the 1400 a failure as it would take a century to recover the tooling investment alone, never mind all other costs. Unless this engine will be used in many more new and existing models and eventually putting water cooled heads. I have said many times on this board that Guzzi in the States is a
miracle not appreciated by many that bitch about dealer support and etc..

Let me add that I personally believe that Guzzi maintains a U.S. presence for the prestige that it brings aided by U.S. tax laws.

[Kev m]

Wow  That's pretty much what I felt, especially the last point as its extremely relevant in this case

 Like I said earlier, I believe that MG has done A good job of building a heavy class tourer with what they had , its just that that market expects such huge capacity motors nowadays that its only having a 1400 motor will automatically have it dismissed by the vast amount of new bike buyers in that class.

Youcanrunnaked does make a good point though, in that it was only 5-6 years ago that a 1400 would have been acceptable in this class,had this bike come out then I doubt we would be having this same conversion unfortunately, we cant live in the past

I still believe that the new 1400 engine in a higher state of tune say 110-115 hp with decent low down torque and a strong mid range would have made the perfect engine for a light weight sports cruiser, complete with forward controls. Totally different market to a Diavell, think more of it as a far superior V Rod, this is where its 4 valve heads and bore and stroke ratios can be take advantage of

Don't get me wrong, I layed out why this bike is destined to be a niche player and not to take ground from the established leaders. But that doesn't mean it will be a failure.

Harley sold 92,000 FLH tourers in 2011 (Road King, Electra Glide, Street Glide etc).

If Guzzi captures just 1% of THAT - it's 920 bikes.

If Guzzi captures 5% of that - it would be 4600 bikes and they won't be able to keep up with demand.

So it doesn't HAVE TO appeal to the majority of those buyers, it just needs to be attractive enough to the fringe that prioritize something more - hopefully it can deliver that in feel, handling, maybe looks too.

[rocker59]

it doesn't HAVE TO appeal to the majority of those buyers, it just needs to be attractive enough to the fringe that prioritize something more - hopefully it can deliver that in feel, handling, maybe looks too.

Yes.  I think you and I both have mentioned the same thing earlier in the thread.

[rocker59]

Just sayin a few hundred per year in sales in the biggest cruiser market will make the 1400 a failure as it would take a century to recover the tooling investment alone, never mind all other costs. Unless this engine will be used in many more new and existing models and eventually putting water cooled heads.

I have no idea how much has been invested in the new California.  They will sell as many (or more) in the rest of the world as they will in the USA.

How much "profit" do you think Guzzi will see from each bike?  How's about a fun little WAG?:  If the MSRP has 25% markup at $18000, That means Guzzi will be selling it to the dealer for $14400.   How much of the $14400 will be "profit"?  Who knows?, but it means Guzzi will take in $14.4 Million for those thousand bikes.  Who knows how they will amortize development cost, but at that rate, the company will be taking in MILLIONS in profit off of this one machine!

I have said many times on this board that Guzzi in the States is a
miracle not appreciated by many that bitch about dealer support and etc..

Let me add that I personally believe that Guzzi maintains a U.S. presence for the prestige that it brings aided by U.S. tax laws.

I thank Carlo everyday for Guzzi's presence in the USA.  And I agree, they are here because they want to be here.  I don't care why.  I am just glad!

[Mark West]

How much of the $14400 will be "profit"?  Who knows?, but it means Guzzi will take in $14.4 Million for those thousand bikes.  Who knows how they will amortize development cost, but at that rate, the company will be taking in MILLIONS in profit off of this one machine!

Yes. Who knows how much the direct materials and labor will be to build the bike. It is also common for manufacturing costs to be higher in the first one or two production years for most vehicles so I don't think we're talking much in profits. Then there are the overhead costs associated with being in the U.S. N. American headquarters, parts inventories and support structure, dealing with US regulatory requirements (they have to get it DOT approved), U.S. specific marketing, advertising, etc.

I hope Guzzi sells a thousand of these in the U.S. the first year but I wouldn't count on it. I don't think they can count on great sales in Europe to carry it cause people aren't so obsessed with big engines and you pay a premium to own them over there. It's really a pretty big gamble and one I hope pays off. I think Piaggio is not stupid either. I think they knew they were looking at something that would take a decade or longer to pay off in terms of how much they have invested in Guzzi. That is probably realistic.

[tazio]

$17,999 MSRP, 2013 Touring Ambassador ~GP Motorcycles in San Diego
Sorry if this is old news

[Kev m]

$17,999 MSRP, 2013 Touring Ambassador ~GP Motorcycles in San Diego
Sorry if this is old news

HMMMMMMMMMM If accurate:

Now, IF we see a pattern in the BMW and Triumph prices (and in the Triumph I picked what might be the new Cali’s closest competitor other than the RK), one might make a guess as the following:


California Custom
US - $16,999 (<--SWAG)
UK - £14,499

Cali 1400 Tourer
US - $17,999 (<--SWAG)
UK - £16,529 (<--SWAG)

This would price is at about RK levels (note the RK is priced slightly different from the RK classic priced above, it goes for $17,699-18,504).

and

Comparing every other item from MG, the US figures should be equal. But in US$. Just add your local taxes.  ;-T

Are you saying

$12.100  California Custom
$13.500  California Touring
$14.270  California Touring (Ambassador)

OR

$16.790 California Custom
$18.790 California Touring
$19.790 California Touring (Ambassador)

I would think the first is too optimistic and the later is too expensive

SOOO IF that number is correct $17,999 for the full bloat-tourer - then there are a LOT of people who were handwringing over silly conversions from EU pricing over the past year that completely missed the mark by generally $2k or more.

I really hope that's the number. HELL, what would that meazn for the Touring and Custom models below it - $16.5k and $15k?

[bad Chad]

The number is an estimate, as stated on GP's website.  That being said, I suspect 18K is a fairly likely starting point for the new Cal.

[Kev m]

The number is an estimate, as stated on GP's website.  That being said, I suspect 18K is a fairly likely starting point for the new Cal.

Aw man, it's just another swag like mine. Oh well...no victory dance lol.

[tazio]

The number is an estimate, as stated on GP's website.  That being said, I suspect 18K is a fairly likely starting point for the new Cal.

Thanks for clearity on this. Gp info culled from alternate site they advertised on and gp made no referance to msrp being an estimate. Sorry for any confusion...

[LowRyter]

California promo ad .... nice beat  :pop
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wcMMC1nnQo

nice.  I hope they have a demo at the National. 

[moltoguzzi]

I have no idea how much has been invested in the new California.  They will sell as many (or more) in the rest of the world as they will in the USA.

How much "profit" do you think Guzzi will see from each bike?  How's about a fun little WAG?:  If the MSRP has 25% markup at $18000, That means Guzzi will be selling it to the dealer for $14400.   How much of the $14400 will be "profit"?  Who knows?, but it means Guzzi will take in $14.4 Million for those thousand bikes.  Who knows how they will amortize development cost, but at that rate, the company will be taking in MILLIONS in profit off of this one machine!


I thank Carlo everyday for Guzzi's presence in the USA.  And I agree, they are here because they want to be here.  I don't care why.  I am just glad!

Mike....the tooling investment covers new engine cases castings, swing arms etc.. then you have machine tooling to hold the parts hole being machined, then you have drill gigs, then come the assembly tooling. The engineering R&D and tooling costs to bring this bike to life had to be conservatively at least 10million. Guzzi stated they worked on this bike FOUR years.

Guzzi sold 100K tonti Calls and I'm sure that is the number they were thinking when the amortized the engineering,  R&D and tooling.

[Chicago Mark]

California promo ad .... nice beat  :pop
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wcMMC1nnQo

     Thank you for the post and the link. I hadn't seen that before and the new Cali looks great.

All the best,

Mark

[rocker59]

Mike....the tooling investment covers new engine cases castings, swing arms etc.. then you have machine tooling to hold the parts hole being machined, then you have drill gigs, then come the assembly tooling. The engineering R&D and tooling costs to bring this bike to life had to be conservatively at least 10million. Guzzi stated they worked on this bike FOUR years.

Guzzi sold 100K tonti Calls and I'm sure that is the number they were thinking when the amortized the engineering,  R&D and tooling.

So, you think they would ammortize R&D for 20-years?  That was the lifespan of Cal II through Cal 90.

[Kev m]

So is it time to close this thread or continue to merge?

[rocker59]

So is it time to close this thread or continue to merge?

I wanted to dump everything here when it was all speculation and questions being repeated.

Now that we're getting info like ride reports and press releases with pricing/availability, I think those threads can stand on their own.

[kevdog3019]

KevM:"So is it time to close this thread or continue to merge?"


The problem with merging every mention of a particular subject is going back through to search a particular subject matter. I don't like sifting through X amount of pages to find something that was in the heading at one time. Just my feeling and think it ruins the new topic at hand. What new topic you say?  That's my point.
Just my two pennies.
Kevin

[Guzzi-Guy]

Just saw the Canadian pricing for the California Touring $18,490 +++

[youcanrunnaked]

^^^  If you turn on English captions, the translation is quite comical, but the gist is, the reviewer really likes it.  Says it is "Excellent."

[mtiberio]

^^^  If you turn on English captions, the translation is quite comical, but the gist is, the reviewer really likes it.  Says it is "Excellent."

how did you turn on english, I could only turn on german...