Is the price of a new Guzzi about to get a lot cheaper?

[canuck750]

As Greece teeters on the edge, apparently about to default on its debts, the Euro fell in value again today. With a debt of over 165% of total economic output the country has no real ability to pay. Regardless of what failed socialist ideals brought on the failure there are many other major European nations dangerously close to Greece including Italy with a debt in the trillions at over 130% of total economic output. The Euro could take a real beating in the short term, it may mean the cost of European imports may drop and in the case of Italy things could get very scary. Watch the exchange rate of Dollars to Euros for the next month, that dream Italian bike or cache of parts may become more affordable than you expected.

The sad reality is that a lot of middle class people in Greece are going to really suffer. Hopefully it does not lead to a domino effect for the Italians, Portuguese and Spaniards.

[pyoungbl]

It's interesting to think about the bling that might be affordable due to the exchange rate.  Bike prices in the US won't see much, if any, benefit because the companies will be happy to enjoy the windfall. 

Peter Y.

[cruzziguzzi]

I guess we'll know after/if/and/or:

Greece fully "fails"
Greece exits the Euro community
Germany/France decide to "shore-up" the Euro and to what extent they are successful
Russia plays her cards if she even cares to

So many variables other than those but ultimately and really, in the short term, there's likely to be a bit of a tumble even if deliberately "allowed" by the powers that be. A giant shudder and then stabilization if if resulting in a net "loss" would do wonders to establish long term confidence in the Euro and I'm sure I'm not the first one to think of that.

Players in the wings... some anyhow:
Russia
England
Turkey - yup, them
China
And... even us.

It won't be boring.

Having lived in and amongst staggering, story-book inflation (comes to that, as in Rhodesia), I feel for those spawn of the Ancients.

Heady brinksmanship on these levels is seldom manipulated by fools... sometimes, sure but less likely than press would have us Plebes think.


Todd

[Lannis]

As Greece teeters on the edge, apparently about to default on its debts, the Euro fell in value again today. With a debt of over 165% of total economic output the country has no real ability to pay. Regardless of what failed socialist ideals brought on the failure there are many other major European nations dangerously close to Greece including Italy with a debt in the trillions at over 130% of total economic output. The Euro could take a real beating in the short term, it may mean the cost of European imports may drop and in the case of Italy things could get very scary. Watch the exchange rate of Dollars to Euros for the next month, that dream Italian bike or cache of parts may become more affordable than you expected.

The sad reality is that a lot of middle class people in Greece are going to really suffer. Hopefully it does not lead to a domino effect for the Italians, Portuguese and Spaniards.

We'll make a note - canuck750 said on 29 June 2015 that the Euro would fall significantly over the next month versus the dollar.

I'm not saying it won't happen, but these kinds of predictions are very hard to make, although those who CAN make them and make them correctly can earn a fortune.   Or lose one, if you bet the wrong way .... !

Lannis

[canuguzzi]

Like any financial woe, it does not translate into better prices for consumers. Bankrupt car companies don't sell their cars on the cheap. If Greece really affected Italy to any degree, fire sales for MGs won't be in the cards.

[segesta]

One thing about the global economy: nothing ever gets cheaper, no matter where you are. An Armani suit in Milan costs the same as the same suit at Nordstrom in Omaha Nebraska.

But this might be the time to do one of those "buy your German/Italian car from the factory, drive it around Europe for two weeks and then ship it home" deals that we saw back in the 1980s.

[fotoguzzi]

if prices do drop, too bad Guzzi doesn't offer a bike I'd want.. something like an 8v spine frame Lemans' but more newer with ABS and traction options.

[cruzziguzzi]

if prices do drop, too bad Guzzi doesn't offer a bike I'd want.. something like an 8v spine frame Lemans' but more newer with ABS and traction options.

Ain't that the sad truth of it for some of us. Nothing in the line-up strikes me dramatic, like my Sport or Calvin did when first seeing them in the showroom.

Todd.

[Waltr]

  We buy Moto Guzzi's from Piaggio Americas, similar to BMW and probably others.  What  may never see a drop in prices but may see sales incentives.
 All in all the Euro Union will share equally in the pain.  The union was a bad idea giving a few control over many.  I am for free and sovereign nations, a concept vanishing before our eyes. 

  OK rant over.

[Kent in Upstate NY]

About the only  way to benefit from the drop in the euro is to order parts from Italy. Your CC payment is converted to euros at the good rate. I ordered some rear sets from Agostinis and got a good price and fast turn around. Really fast.

[Lannis]

 
 All in all the Euro Union will share equally in the pain.  The union was a bad idea giving a few control over many.  I am for free and sovereign nations, a concept vanishing before our eyes. 

"Free and Sovereign Nations" was the problem that the Euro Union was trying to FIX.   For a thousand years, all that those "free and sovereign nations" did was fight wars over territory and economics, culminating in the tribal bloodbaths of the 20th Century once the weapons got really effective.

They'll probably have to look back over a 1500 year horizon in 2515 and say "We finally got it fixed", because the current plan ain't workin' ......

Lannis

[Testarossa]

Lannis nailed it. The EU was established with the idea that an economic union would make it impractical for European nations -- notably Germany and France -- to attack each other. To that extent uniting the economies of France and Germany probably makes sense, and then neighboring industrialized countries (Italy, Benelux) see a need to participate in those markets. But rich peripheral countries (UK, Sweden, Norway, Switzerland) may not get much benefit -- and you can see how poorer nations turn into tourist economies exporting gastarbeiten. Relinquishing economic sovereignty turns into a bad deal when you can't devalue a dedicated currency.

[PJPR01]

No harm in placing a little currency bet...go and buy some euros from your local AAA or bank and hold them for a month...minus any transaction fees, you may make some $$$...or definitely take a trip over and enjoy a nice European vacation.

Does Guzzi actually offer a pickup from the factory offer to have it shipped back like BMW and Mercedes and Volvo did in the past?

That could be a fun way to go and visit friends near Mandello (Cislago, Senago) and break in a new Guzzi down the Croatian coast for 2 weeks and then package it up back to the States...

Let the trip planning begin!!!  :)

[John Ulrich]

Inventory in warehouses & dealer show floors is priced in "current" dollars. 

[Demar]

Like any financial woe, it does not translate into better prices for consumers. Bankrupt car companies don't sell their cars on the cheap. If Greece really affected Italy to any degree, fire sales for MGs won't be in the cards.

+1

I don't see MG fire sales in the near future. More likely is if things get really bad for Italy I can see MG folding.... then maybe reduced prices, or, prices stay the same as it may be your last chance to buy a new MG.

[canuck750]

The danger is not so much Greece as it is Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. German banks can only write off so much to prop up the Euro.
Banks are not trying to save Greece or the Euro as much as they are trying to save their balance sheets. This feels so much like the real estate bubble of the last decade, lots and lots of warnings from all across the spectrum countered by the drone of the IMF and the European Central bank to try and maintain a façade of calm.

Does anyone remember Broklsey Born?  from Wixipedia "A little more than a decade ago, Born foresaw a financial cataclysm, accurately predicting that exotic investments known as over-the-counter derivatives could play a crucial role in a crisis much like the one now convulsing America"

Frontline aired an expose on Ms. Born back in 2006. All the pundits and experts tried to discredit her, German banks in particular were facing a major hit and were visceral in their criticism of her. Of course she was 100% correct. I did a lot of homework after that show and eventually pulled about 75% of my investments out of the market. My Banker said I was nuts. Six months later I was high and dry riding it out in the money markets.

So where is the market going to go when this Euro bubble comes tumbling down? I doubt the US markets will escape unscathed. US Treasury bonds or the money markets may be the only lifeboat, US Dollars or British Pounds, anything but Euros.

[lorazepam]

In the end, the wealthy and the Bankers will be just fine. It is the regular folks who will take the hit. The deck is stacked that way and always will be.

[canuck750]

In the end, the wealthy and the Bankers will be just fine. It is the regular folks who will take the hit. The deck is stacked that way and always will be.

Indeed,

The DOW fell 2% today, wiping out a lot of gains. I would get out of the markets for the next six months, your banker or investment councillor will tell you your crazy, ignore them, if you get out now you could potentially save a lot and put your money in a fund market that can make a profit while stocks tumble. Jump back in while the DOW is at the bottom and you can make a good return riding the curve back up.

[segesta]

... until we learn overnight that Greece and its creditors have figured something out, and the Dow flies back up on Tuesday. When the swings are about politics and policy, and not actual market forces, who knows what can happen.

Which is why timing the market never worked for me--my best strategy was simple old 'dollar-cost averaging'.

[jas67]

As Greece teeters on the edge, apparently about to default on its debts, the Euro fell in value again today. With a debt of over 165% of total economic output the country has no real ability to pay. Regardless of what failed socialist ideals brought on the failure there are many other major European nations dangerously close to Greece including Italy with a debt in the trillions at over 130% of total economic output. The Euro could take a real beating in the short term, it may mean the cost of European imports may drop and in the case of Italy things could get very scary. Watch the exchange rate of Dollars to Euros for the next month, that dream Italian bike or cache of parts may become more affordable than you expected.

The sad reality is that a lot of middle class people in Greece are going to really suffer. Hopefully it does not lead to a domino effect for the Italians, Portuguese and Spaniards.

You are looking at the sad future for the middle class here the the US too.    Our Dept. now exceeds our GDP as well.

[mtiberio]

...
 Jump back in while the DOW is at the bottom ...

Like that is easy.

[Penderic]

Oh boy! We are all gonna be millionaires soon!


 


 


 

[rocker59]

European motorcycles are already sold cheaply in the USA.  Just look at what they sell for elsewhere.

I don't see a drop in the Euro affecting Guzzi prices over the short-term.  One year timeframe.

Over the long-term, maybe.  But like I said, they already sell them cheap in The USA.

[Dean Rose]

Maybe time for a vacation in Greece.


Dean

[Ronkom]

Regardless of what happens, the real facts are that the hyper-rich are going to manipulate the situation to feed their greed. They, quite simply, want it ALL. Meanwhile, as ever in amerika, the tail wags the dog and people are in the streets raging over which flag flies where. 

[segesta]

Regardless of what happens, the real facts are that the hyper-rich are going to manipulate the situation to feed their greed. They, quite simply, want it ALL. Meanwhile, as ever in amerika, the tail wags the dog and people are in the streets raging over which flag flies where.

I dunno, no rich person (including the CEO of my company) ever stole anything from me. The conclusion I draw from Greece is that it's not capitalism that ruined them, it was government spending and related fantasy-based fiscal policy. And they are now facing the consequences of running out of other people's money.

[Lannis]

No harm in placing a little currency bet...go and buy some euros from your local AAA or bank and hold them for a month...minus any transaction fees, you may make some $$$...or definitely take a trip over and enjoy a nice European vacation.

Ummm ... think about that one again .....

[Lannis]

I dunno, no rich person (including the CEO of my company) ever stole anything from me. The conclusion I draw from Greece is that it's not capitalism that ruined them, it was government spending and related fantasy-based fiscal policy. And they are now facing the consequences of running out of other people's money.

 :1:   Yup.   It's not a "zero-sum game" - that's why we invented the term "making money".   I can get rich, and you can get rich, and we don't have to impoverish anyone to do it, nor do we have to steal anything from anyone.   

Besides that, I don't ever remember a poor or middle-class guy hiring me for a good-paying job with benefits ....

Lannis

[not-fishing]

Besides that, I don't ever remember a poor or middle-class guy hiring me for a good-paying job with benefits ....

Lannis

I hate to disagree but when I was poor and took home less than $13,000 per year I hired a lot of guys for good-paying jobs with benefits.  Not making any money is a side product of starting a company.  For the last 5 years now I am again lower middle class and my men make more than I do.

Just a more side product of owning your own business and in Building Construction it has been a Depression not a Recession

Still if the Euro tanks I'd love to get a Falcone shipped out.



Mark

[LowRyter]

Indeed,

The DOW fell 2% today, wiping out a lot of gains. I would get out of the markets for the next six months, your banker or investment councillor will tell you your crazy, ignore them, if you get out now you could potentially save a lot and put your money in a fund market that can make a profit while stocks tumble. Jump back in while the DOW is at the bottom and you can make a good return riding the curve back up.

seems like a better strategy if you sold out on Friday