Another downturn in motorcye sales?

[HardAspie]

In the early 1980s there was a down turn in motorcycle sales. One could buy cheaply new bikes two model years old. Many thought that this would be the end of the industry, but here we are in the next century and there are still companies making them. We;ll probably weather this slump too.

[rocker59]

In the early 1980s there was a down turn in motorcycle sales. One could buy cheaply new bikes two model years old. Many thought that this would be the end of the industry, but here we are in the next century and there are still companies making them. We;ll probably weather this slump too.

In March 1983, I got a new 1983 CB650SC Nighthawk.

There were new, unsold 1979 Hondas on the showroom floor at the dealer.  Lots of bikes like the CB900F and CBX just sitting.

[HardAspie]

I remember that well. The ancient past seems so bloody recent. Such are the memories of a hag!

[rboe]

It's complicated; but a few things pop out to me: The local motorcycle safety school where I went to get my endorsement again after a 26 year hiatus says enrollments tank went gas prices tank. This reflects the main reason I got into bikes so many years ago; cheap transport. The urge to ride just to ride a motorcycle came much later. I have not talked to them lately (need to) but this cheap gas can not be helping them.

Real middle class earnings have declined the last 30 years when inflation has been taken into account. Rising cost of everything leaves a lot less money for discretionary spending on fishing boats, motorcycles, horses, etc. This may actually help the motorcycle industry as people look for cheap transport. But with so many cars on the used market and motorcycles not being all that cheap (lets face it, cars are made so much better than in the 50's and 60's so they can be viable on the used market for much longer than before - and they have heat, A/C and rain protection - as well as a trunk in most cases - a motorcycle is a tough sell) this is a crap shoot. I keep reading that young folks are not that interested in cars, preferring buses, mass transit trains or bicycles so big bikes are probably out and Vespa's are back in.

Then you add in simple life style changes. Hunting is down in most states as fewer and fewer kids follow dad (rarely mom) out into the woods to hunt. Shooting sports in general, when I ran an air gun match, attracted few new shooters and kids in general would leave as soon as they discovered the opposite sex, typically returning when their kids came of age.

Honda is trying to correct the problem of attracting new young riders with its' 300cc and 500cc motorcycles but it's truly an up hill battle with computer games, drones etc. pulling their interests and dollars else where.

Being selfish, this concerns me because if my motorcycle company is not healthy it may go away - and there goes my parts source.

I think if someone came out with the VW bug version of a motorcycle, in the 200-300cc class for $2000-$3000 new; some interest could be created for a new generation of gear heads. In todays world it would first have to be seen in a 007 movie with a Kardashian riding it for sales to really take off.  sigh.

But I think we face a lot of reasons for a lack luster motorcycle industry and a cheap bike is only one small part of the whole solution. Who knows, maybe motorcycles will go the way of the horse with a very small segment of the population even caring about it.

[Kev m]

rboe may have something with the VW Beetle of bikes analogy.

You can buy a new car with at least a 3/36 mile warranty, and likely something with a 5/50 at least on the powertrain for as cheap as $12k.

It may not be sexy, but it certainly makes a $8-10k V7 hard to swallow for an 18-28 y/o with tight pockets.

I'll say I did buy my first bike as an alternate to 4-wheel commuting in my early 20's ... and even abandoned my 4wheel transportation to buy my first new bike before I was 25.

Money was tight and I had caught the bug for riding bad.

But I suspect even then I was in the overwhelming minority.

When people talk about a decline in sales I think largely it was generational driven with most of the new bike sales already going to people in their 40's and 50's in this country.

So I don't know that we're feeling the impact of the Millennials on the industry yet per se. We'll know their real impact in about another decade.

If anything I'd say we're feeling the general economic environment and the overall change in the US to motorcycles as nothing more than recreation in most people's eyes.

[rboe]

I just don't see motorcycles as more than recreational vehicles anymore. I know I'm spoiled, having to go back to a bike as my main transport, especially in the summer in Phoenix, no thank you! Pretty much spoiled rotten. :p I do know of a young guy at work that rides all year round. I think he finally bought a car, but I know he did a motorcycle for several years as his only transport. Rides a Honda Stateline (factory chopper). I'd cringe when the monsoons came through and he had to ride in those frog throttlers. Gah!

I think I started to get the bug when I stopped by the Honda shop and got a deal on a end of year CJ360T (current bike was a TS125 - and I had learned to hate it). Did some rides on that bike! When I moved on to a KZ550 that tried to kill me on several occasions, to this day I'd like to get a CJ360T. The 550, not so much (the CB1100 kinda replaced it).

In any event, the next few years will be interesting. See where the market goes, see what folks embrace next (save the Harley and Goldwing crowd, but like us, I think those guys will just die off) and if that involves us or not. I suspect not. :)

[thepittsburghguzzi]

! When I moved on to a KZ550 that tried to kill me on several occasions,

What did the KZ do to try and kill you? My KZ is my loyal sidekick! :P

[HardAspie]

I am planning for my bike to be recreational and also practical. I have no other motor vehicle. It must be cheap to buy and run and reliable and long lived.

My months long research has me thinking most seriously of the S-Y-M Wolf Classic 150. $3K with 2 year warranty. 150cc / 15 HP with cruising speed 55 - 60 MPH and it apparently prefers regular fuel and returns usually between 70 and 80 MPG. 266 lb wet claimed weight. It is essentially an improved Honda CB 125 with larger engine with ceramic coated cylinder, electric start, better than original 125 / 100 bike electrics and an H4 headlamp, 2 piston front disc, and a few other useful items. Accessories are cheap and available.

This is the sort of bike used throughout less developed nations and can be seen carrying horrible loads. They are oft abused. I think it should fill my needs.

The VW sort of bike? I am hoping so.