Author Topic: Future classics  (Read 3156 times)

Offline F-22

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #30 on: December 09, 2018, 12:44:35 PM »
Out of non-exotic bikes, I bet the Hayabusa will get really expensive. The Honda VF1000F and the first VFR will probably get expensive too, they are kind of the first "modern" sportbikes. The original Suzuki GSXR too, they're really iconic (and the RG Gamma no doubt, they're already crazy expensive). Possibly even the Hawk GT.

From the 90's, I'd say few bikes are as iconic as a Ducati Monster. If they sold them today, they'd still be very appealing even to customers who do not look for "retro" bikes. No doubt the 916 and other "exotic" models too, they were always expensive...


Hard to say for more modern bikes. I think the old BMW K line is slowly gaining a bit on price too, with all the recent BMW cafe racer modification craze. Oilhead prices will likely not go up for a long time, they're odd bikes. Early 2000's Japanese bikes were kind of meh, it'll take a long time before an SV650 starts gaining value. The Aprilia RS250 is a safe bet, but they're already expensive. I imagine the V7 Guzzis will always hold their value rather well (as well as most other models, I mean even the T5 is somewhat expensive and they're really not pretty). The new Triumph bikes will perhaps start gaining some value. And Harley prices are always pretty stable, a 20 year old Sportster and a 10 year old one cost about the same if both are in good condition...
« Last Edit: December 09, 2018, 12:53:14 PM by F-22 »

Offline Aaron D.

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #31 on: December 09, 2018, 04:53:11 PM »
Styling is subjective, but I'd generally agree with you that it also contributed.

I'll add that I think the return and then leaps forward in performance probably means we are seeing future classic cars again, but we're too close to "see" it.

Either way the comparison still doesn't hold.

The classic car market sees 1974 as the last "great" year, as after that styling was no longer entirely determined by the stylist or manufacturer. Government regulations required changes even beyond obvious "Federal" bumpers.

Still, modern cars are better than ever.


Offline Kev m

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #32 on: December 09, 2018, 05:03:31 PM »
The classic car market sees 1974 as the last "great" year, as after that styling was no longer entirely determined by the stylist or manufacturer. Government regulations required changes even beyond obvious "Federal" bumpers.

Still, modern cars are better than ever.

Well you said it, they're better than ever and today the classic market sees one thing, it's almost certain it won't see that forever.

Today's classic purchasers will die off and the cars that are classics today will be the rare antiques of tomorrow.

Something from today will be classic tomorrow. Of course many on this thread (perhaps myself included) won't be around to see it.

No matter, I'll enjoy what I like now...
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Offline Clifton

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #33 on: December 09, 2018, 05:50:57 PM »
Not a sexy pick but I'm thinking the last of the Japanese big bore, air cooled, carbureted, singles, are about to disappear so pick up a new DR or XR 650.

Offline GearheadGrrrl

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #34 on: December 09, 2018, 06:09:08 PM »
Rarity counts for a lot too- other than rare models like the R90S and R80GS, BMW airheads have been selling for $2-3k for years... BMW only made a couple hundred thousand of them. Early K bikes seem to actually be declining in value, given that many owners are retiring from riding or trading up. And Buells? They only made over 100,000 of them.
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Offline Antietam Classic Cycle

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #35 on: December 09, 2018, 06:54:04 PM »
There's a good chance this could be a future classic:

Charlie
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Offline pyoungbl

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #36 on: December 09, 2018, 08:03:59 PM »
This speculation is based on the thought that the folks with disposable cash in 20-30 years are similar to the same people now.  I grew up in an age when cars and motorcycles were cool.  That translates now into an urge to pay for neat cars or motorcycles from the past.  These are things I admired but never owned, or owned once and want to recreate that memory.  In the future we may find that old cars and motorcycles are just not that interesting for the people who have the money to pay a premium for them.  Consider sewing machines.  There are lots of well made and interesting examples going to the dump.  The same applies to pianos (try selling a piano!).  My point is that we may well be at the tipping point for internal combustion vehicles and motorcycles in particular.  That 900SS might be hot right now but in a decade, not so much.  With that said, my 2013 red and white V7 is one beautiful classic. 
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Offline Tusayan

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #37 on: December 10, 2018, 09:15:41 AM »
I agree that future generations won't be as interested.  One reason for that IMHO is that the type and years of vehicles that are considered classic isn't going to change that much and those vehicles wil not be as interesting to people who didn't know them when they were new.  I think classic vehicles will mostly remain those made in the 20th centrury, and while they will remain an interesting hobby to collectors as time goes on, the mass appeal will diminish.

Offline hannibal smith

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #38 on: December 10, 2018, 11:42:38 AM »
The 2TB V7 series (like a 2009) will be desirable within a decade. It's simplicity, ease of operation, and it's mild manners  will have an appeal. I have one now, and after yesterday's ride, it really reminded me once again that it was old fashioned the day it was made!

It won't necessarily go up in value, but it will level off, inflation etc. not withstanding. In the scheme of things it is a rare bike to begin with.  It is just plain charming, and I get compliments at the pump on a regular basis.

 

Offline speedyg

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #39 on: December 10, 2018, 12:06:59 PM »

Just a couple to consider:

For best value:
1990's CBR900RR (changed the Sport bike scene) , Ducati Monster (saved Ducati)

Online reidy

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #40 on: December 10, 2018, 07:09:26 PM »
I went for a ride yesterday and stopped at a Bakery for a coffee, something I don't normally do. Whilst I was enjoy my coffee and slice a group of 12 riders pulled in. In this group there were 2 1970's Norton's a R90S BMW and a Ducati  Scrambler plus 8 other modern looking bikes. What I took away from this is that the Norton's and BMW captured my attention and I noticed the Scrambler as I walked past all of the bikes on the way out stopping to look at only those 4 and could not tell you anything about the rest. 

I will have to find someone in there mid to late 20's to tell me which bikes stop them in there tracks and then I guess I will have an answer as to what the future classics are.

Steve

Offline Devildog

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #41 on: December 11, 2018, 04:36:03 PM »
My future classic (I hope). No. 15 of 800.

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Offline blackbuell

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #42 on: December 11, 2018, 04:46:41 PM »
I think the original Eddie Lawson replica KAW or perhaps the Z1R could be worth some $ in the not-too-distant future. I certainly wish I hadn't sold my old tube-frame Buell S3; they might become classics some day.

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Offline hannibal smith

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #43 on: December 11, 2018, 06:13:58 PM »
Has to have had "something" back in the day for the most part (there are exceptions, like rarity) but also must have intrinsic appeal looks wise. It has to have multiple points, pure performance sans looks, or looks but gutless is a hard sell.

I had a 1979 Lotus Esprit, although gorgeous, lacked the power to peel a grape. One major flaw. A damning flaw. It will never command a premium.

Offline Lumpy Idle

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #44 on: December 11, 2018, 06:44:35 PM »
...
Now is the time to buy Italian sport bikes of the 90s.

yeah, i agree with those that mention the daytona's and the sporti's and not merely because i have one. As long as Medicandy keeps buying them they continue to become scarce (insert chortle emoji of your choice here.)  I suspect that there will come a point for the sporti's that their persistent incremental price rises will take a sudden leap into something approaching the zone that the daytona's now inhabit.  There aren't very many of them, they are sexy as hell and they will only become more collectible.
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Online Kristian

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #45 on: December 11, 2018, 07:02:18 PM »
The classic car era extends only through the early 70s then ends abruptly due to regulations from that time and their impact on low volume models and producers.  The same thing is happening with motorcycles, delayed to maybe pre model year 2000. 

Right idea but I think incorrect analogy. First, lots of 70s, 80s, 90s cars are collectible, to wit: Maserati Boras, Meraks, Khamsins; Lamborghini Countach, Espada; Ferrari Berlinetta Boxer, 288GTO, Testarossa, F40; Porsche 959, 911 Turbos through the 993 series, most air cooled 911s, and more; Audi Quattro; Aston Martin V8 Vantage and regular V8's; etc. and so on. You are correct that most of the smalltime coach built manufacturers took a heavy hit in the early 70s, like Iso Grifo, Jensen, Alvis, and tiny producers like that.

Tiny motorcycle manufacturers like Bimota (still here), Harris, Rickman, Moto Martin, and others, were killed off by the major motorcycle manufacturers producing motorcycles that did all the things the coach built bikes did – performance and handling – as well as or better than the bikes from the small makers, but with much better reliability and build quality. Makers like Bimota, Harris, and Moto Martin during the 1970s took terrific Japanese engines out of their ill handling frames and shoved them into great handling chassis, providing the only products available for the discerning bloke who wanted a true sports bike on the street.

But, the writing on the wall was written during the 1980s by the Kawasaki GPz900R, Yamaha FZRs, Honda Interceptors, and most notably by the Suzuki GSX-Rs and the 8V Ducatis. By 1988 or so, there was no reason to buy a Bimota or Moto Martin, especially as you had to suffer with dodgy tuning, inferior build quality, and poor part support.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2018, 07:03:18 PM by Kristian »

Offline bad Chad

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #46 on: December 11, 2018, 07:10:47 PM »
All depends on what is in demand.   I think it would be super cool to have a MZ 1000s, but I suspect i’ll be  a subset of a subset a thus it will be a very little actual value on the open market.
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Offline Tusayan

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #47 on: December 11, 2018, 11:00:24 PM »
Right idea but I think incorrect analogy. First, lots of 70s, 80s, 90s cars are collectible, to wit: Maserati Boras, Meraks, Khamsins; Lamborghini Countach, Espada; Ferrari Berlinetta Boxer, 288GTO, Testarossa, F40; Porsche 959, 911 Turbos through the 993 series, most air cooled 911s, and more; Audi Quattro; Aston Martin V8 Vantage and regular V8's; etc. and so on. You are correct that most of the smalltime coach built manufacturers took a heavy hit in the early 70s, like Iso Grifo, Jensen, Alvis, and tiny producers like that.

Tiny motorcycle manufacturers like Bimota (still here), Harris, Rickman, Moto Martin, and others, were killed off by the major motorcycle manufacturers producing motorcycles that did all the things the coach built bikes did – performance and handling – as well as or better than the bikes from the small makers, but with much better reliability and build quality. Makers like Bimota, Harris, and Moto Martin during the 1970s took terrific Japanese engines out of their ill handling frames and shoved them into great handling chassis, providing the only products available for the discerning bloke who wanted a true sports bike on the street.

But, the writing on the wall was written during the 1980s by the Kawasaki GPz900R, Yamaha FZRs, Honda Interceptors, and most notably by the Suzuki GSX-Rs and the 8V Ducatis. By 1988 or so, there was no reason to buy a Bimota or Moto Martin, especially as you had to suffer with dodgy tuning, inferior build quality, and poor part support.

Most of the cars you mention were initially designed pre-1972 or thereabouts (which is my rough dividing line for cars) and while there will always be a tiny counter example to every wider trend, I think that there is very little automotive made in the last half a lifetime that will attract collectors years for now.  There will probably be a few but the trend is done, car collecting IMHO will focus on earlier cars and with nearly fixed supply and increasing wealthy population worldwide prices of $100K will remain the norm. I simply don't believe that future generations when reaching their 50s or whatever will be collecting the cars of their 21st century youth. A few of them will continue collecting pre-1972 American or less regulated pre-1980 European cars (or whatever year you may think is appropriate) but regardless of the year you might pick the mass market has moved on from cars. The closest manufacturers can achieve is building modern versions of classic cars: recycled Dodge Challenger with 'Hemi', Mustang etc.   Porsche still makes a 911, replaying the same old theme.  Lamborghinis still look like 1970s Lamborghinis, VW now rehashing what was done 40 years ago.  It makes money but none of it makes a memorable impact.

Bikes are the same, just delayed a few model years.  My judgement for bikes is that the Italian motorcycle renaissance of the 90s in which they rose from the dead to successfully combat Japanese sport bikes is the last classic era for bikes.  The answer to the question of which bikes stop average 20-somethings in their tracks today is none of them.  As with cars retro bikes are the closest to excitement for 20-somethings in 2018, but I think retro won't have lasting appeal to collectors.

We who have loved the evolution and excitement of new bikes for years would love for younger people and high regulated 21st century bikes to continue our trend but I think reality is laughing at us, the mass trend has moved on.  On the other hand, 90s Italian bikes are inexpensive and the last hurrah, buy them now.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2018, 11:27:03 PM by Tusayan »

Offline hannibal smith

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #48 on: December 12, 2018, 10:17:07 AM »
I collect motorcycles, and so do my friends. Here in Southern California, the 80's and 90's Japanese bikes are getting much more expensive. Currently I am restoring a Kawasaki 1984 900R Gpz mill for a buddy that has a sizeable collection to include Mv and vintage Ducatis.

He is more excited about this bike than his Ducati Laguna Seca.

I am currently looking for a 1989-1994 Kawasaki ZX-7 to add to my stable.

Anyway, bikes have always been fast and exciting, and were never neutered. Any cool bike of it's era is destined to become a classic. Even today's bikes. 

Offline Lannis

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #49 on: December 12, 2018, 10:22:29 AM »
The same skills and intuition that would allow one to predict which motorcycles would be "classics" in the future would also allow one to predict what companies have share prices that are going to triple or quadruple in the next few years.

Lemme know if you figure out the secret ... !!!

Lannis

We're doing a good job of analyzing the past and figuring out which bikes back then have become expensive "classics" now, and WHY ... but nobody back then knew which ones they would be.

Similarly, doing the analysis about the past does nothing for us in predicting WHICH bikes to buy cheap now and be expensive later, like someone buying a Vincent for $2500 in the 70s, parking it, maintaining it, and polishing it, and having a bike worth $70,000 NOW.

If you think about it, nobody really predicts anything .... and unless I buy a Bike X and put it in the shop for my kids to retire on, I can't predict anything either.

Lannis
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Offline hannibal smith

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #50 on: December 12, 2018, 11:00:06 AM »
We're doing a good job of analyzing the past and figuring out which bikes back then have become expensive "classics" now, and WHY ... but nobody back then knew which ones they would be.

I disagree. Motorcycles are fairly "new" to this world, and there wasn't any real precedent to future value. Unlike automobiles that take up space etc. motorbikes are way easier to stash/store and commonly avoid the wrecker. Granted, we have all seen images of a rusty pile of vintage bikes, but that pile invariably will not contain the exclusive of their respective eras. People don't throw away Harleys for instance.

People know what is cool. Nobody threw away an intact Vincent. Sure, they couldn't predict to what degree the value would rise, but they knew it was worth something. If you are referring to pure speculation as to a percentage of future "value", then I agree. But every cool bike of all eras will achieve a classic status eventually.

I will say that armed with today's info, we can predict pretty well what bikes are worth grabbing now. Any Japanese "speed" bike from the 80's is worth getting if the price and condition are right. I don't buy to sell, I am a collector, but I want an example for a steal if I can help it. They are only getting more expensive.

 

Offline Lannis

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #51 on: December 12, 2018, 11:20:54 AM »
People don't throw away Harleys for instance.

That's a perfect example.   Back when I were a lad and considering building a "chopper", around 1970 - 72, various police departments (LAPD, CHP, DC Police among others) auctioned off their HD Big Twins when they had reached the end of their economical service life with the police.

NOBODY wanted them.   You could go to one of these auctions with $100 to $250 with a battery and a can of gas, and ride out of it on a Hydra-Glide Harley.   People loaded them onto trucks for pennies a pound.   

And I disagree that no one threw away an intact Vincent.   People chopped them up and used the engines for dragsters and sidecar racers all the time.  I remember them doing it, at the time.   They had no idea at all that the things would be worth big bucks someday, just like we have no idea at all that a 1993 Sportster that sells for $2000 today MIGHT be $20,000 in a few years.   Sounds stupid?   It sounded stupid to people back then that ANY old panhead Harley, stock and running, would be worth three months of anyone's pay today.

I understand that you disagree and I hear your opinion, but I stand firmly by mine ... even more.

Lannis
As I was watching the dog chase his tail last night, I thought "Dogs are easily amused ..."

Then I realized I was watching the dog chase his tail.

Offline hannibal smith

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #52 on: December 12, 2018, 02:21:09 PM »
That we are discussing this means that we are now fully aware of future potential. It's only limited to what degree.

One of my collector buddies never sold his minty Norton or his Sci-Fi purple Triumph that he purchased new way back when. He knew then they were worth holding on to............the day he bought them!

The 1984 Gpz 900R we are working on together was purchased by him brand new and never sold because he knew it was going to be special one day.

I have only sold one motorcycle in my lifetime, and I am now on the quest to get another (1994 Kawasaki ZX7).

ETA- I agree that people didn't consider potential  back then, but there is no excuse now. We have known this for many years.

I guarantee that a 2018 bike that is badass will be a classic in the future.
« Last Edit: December 12, 2018, 02:30:57 PM by hannibal smith »

Offline Dilliw

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #53 on: December 12, 2018, 03:17:21 PM »
Orange XR1200
SV1000s (first gen)

My Tenni Green SE of course!  :evil:
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Offline hannibal smith

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #54 on: December 12, 2018, 03:28:53 PM »
Orange XR1200
SV1000s (first gen)

My Tenni Green SE of course!  :evil:

Absolutely! Cool then, cool now, cool forever.

Offline Aaron D.

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #55 on: December 12, 2018, 03:32:43 PM »
There was a tie when "collectible" cars were going up in price so fast, a group of investors bought a 300SL and planned to store it for a period. There would be a payout at liquidation.

Then the big crash came. Wonder what happened next? Did they hold through the next big thing? And the next crash?

Bah-we can't tell. Frankly the glow of the current favorites strikes me a bit like stolen valor. Guys who bought Vincents, or V7 Sports, had a very different view of the bikes and had experiences that current buyers can only wish they had.


Offline hannibal smith

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #56 on: December 12, 2018, 03:47:22 PM »
There was a tie when "collectible" cars were going up in price so fast, a group of investors bought a 300SL and planned to store it for a period. There would be a payout at liquidation.

Then the big crash came. Wonder what happened next? Did they hold through the next big thing? And the next crash?

Bah-we can't tell. Frankly the glow of the current favorites strikes me a bit like stolen valor. Guys who bought Vincents, or V7 Sports, had a very different view of the bikes and had experiences that current buyers can only wish they had.

Excellent point. Not only a different view of the bikes and experiences, but of the then owners too.

Online LowRyter

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #57 on: December 12, 2018, 05:00:34 PM »
1990 Honda RC30 comes to mind




appreciate the Greenie sentiment FG

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Offline Perazzimx14

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #58 on: December 12, 2018, 06:58:26 PM »
Wonder why either of these two amazing specimens haven't been mentioned yet?



« Last Edit: December 12, 2018, 06:59:10 PM by Perazzimx14 »

Online Huzo

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #59 on: December 12, 2018, 07:13:44 PM »
Wonder why either of these two amazing specimens haven't been mentioned yet?




Because one of them is a steaming pile of pus...

 

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