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General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: slowmover on February 20, 2021, 04:13:24 PM
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1. Auto repair shops will disappear...
2. A gas/diesel engine has 20,000 individual parts... An electrical motor has 20... Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are repaired only by dealers... It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric motor...
3. Faulty electric motors are NOT repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with ROBOTS...
4. Your electric motor malfunction light goes on... so you drive up to what looks like a car wash, and your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee... Then your car comes out on the other side with a new electric motor or component...
5. Gas stations will go away...
6. Street corners will have meters that dispense electricity... Companies will install electrical recharging stations... in fact, they've already started in the developed world...
7. Smart major auto manufacturers have already designated money to start building new plants that build ONLY electric cars...
8 � The "Coal Industries" will go away... Gasoline/oil companies will go away... Drilling for oil will stop... So say goodbye to OPEC... The Middle East is in trouble...
9. Homes will produce and store more electrical energy during the day than they use... It will be sold back to "The Grid"... The Grid will store and dispense it, to the industries that are high electricity users. Has anybody seen the Tesla roof?
10. A baby of today will only see "personal cars" in museums. The FUTURE is approaching faster than most of us can even handle...
11. In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide... Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt... Who would have thought of that ever happening?
12. What happened to Kodak and Polaroid will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years ... and most people don't even see it coming...
13. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later, you would never take pictures on film again? With today's smartphones, who even has a camera these days?
14. Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975... The first ones only had 10,000 pixels but followed Moore's law... As with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment in the beginning ... before it became superior and mainstream in only a few short years...
15. It will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence (AI), health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs...
16. Forget the book, "Future Shock," welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution...
17. Software has disrupted and will continue to disrupt most traditional industries... (in the next 5 to 10 years...
18. UBER, is just a software tool (they don't own any cars), and are now the biggest taxi company in the world... (Ask any taxi driver if they saw that coming...
19. AIR-BnB is now the biggest hotel company in the world .. (they don't own any properties)... Ask Hilton Hotels or the Marriott if they saw that coming...
20. Artificial Intelligence (AI): Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world... This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world... (10 years earlier than expected)...
21. In the USA, young lawyers already don't get jobs (because of IBM's WATSON)... you can get legal advice within a few seconds so for the basic stuff... with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.. So, if you're studying law, THINK AGAIN... There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, what a thought and only omniscient specialists will remain...
22. WATSON already helps nurses diagnosing cancer... it's 4-times more accurate and many times faster than human nurses...
23. Facebook now has a 'face recognition' software that can recognize faces better than humans... In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans...
24. Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars were already here... In the next few years, the entire auto industry will start to be disrupted... You won't want to own a car any more as you will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination...
25. You will not need to park it, you will pay only for the 'driven distance' and you can be productive while driving. The very young children of today will never get a driver's license and they will never own a car...
26. This will change our cities because we will need 90% to 95% fewer cars... We can transform former parking spaces into green city parks...
27. About 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents (worldwide). That includes distracted or drunk drivers... We currently have one accident every 60,000 miles driven... However with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in about 6 million miles... That will save a million plus lives, worldwide each year...
28. Most traditional car companies will doubtless become bankrupt.. They will try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car ... while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels...
29. Look at what Volvo is doing right now... no more internal combustion engines in their vehicles starting this year with the 2020 models... They are using all-electric or hybrid only (with the intent of phasing out hybrid models in the not too distant future)...
30. Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla... Look at all the companies offering all-electric vehicles... That was unheard of, only a few years ago...
31. Insurance companies will have massive trouble too... because, without accidents, the costs of insurance will become cheaper... Their car insurance business model will disappear...
32. Real estate will change... Because if you can work while you commute, or you can work from your home... people will abandon their towers to move far away to more beautiful and affordable properties.
33. Electric cars will become mainstream by about 2030... Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run ONLY on electricity...
34. Cities will have much cleaner air...
35. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean, eventually free...
36. Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years... but you can now see the burgeoning impact... and it's just starting to get ramped up...
37. Fossil energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid... to prevent competition from home solar installations... but that simply cannot continue... Technology will take care of that strategy in the not too distant future...
38. Health: The Tricorder X, price will be announced this year... There are companies who will build a medical device called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, a sample of your blood, then you breathe into it... It then analyzes 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease.. There are dozens of phone apps out there right now for health...
WELCOME TO TOMORROW. To think, I used to complain about my parents and grandparents being "out of it."
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Ok, is about all’s left to say about that:)
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yes
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"Free" electricity?
I'd like to see the math on that one.
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I don't doubt any of that, but not real sure of the timelines. People are still very resistant to change. We shall see.
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OP forgot to mention the current materials needed for batteries and motors come from places that are troublesome. The mining operations create huge piles of spoils...This has to change and probably will over time... Meanwhile ICE technology is not stagnant so don'y bury it just yeat...And the recent mess in Texas demonstrates that the electrical distribution can be problematic .
I have zero interest in powerplants that aren't vibrating oily contraptions..... Forunately I will be long gone by the time electic vehicle are common..
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Imagine what our Guzzis will be worth then!!!!!!!!
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"Free" electricity?
I'd like to see the math on that one.
Me too. Maybe to certain individuals once they have recouped or their grandchildren recouped the cost and maintenance of their personal solar farm.
Plus, there are the costs of maintaining power generation and distribution.
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OP forgot to mention the current materials needed for batteries and motors come from places that are troublesome. The mining operations create huge piles of spoils...This has to change and probably will over time... Meanwhile ICE technology is not stagnant so don'y bury it just yeat...And the recent mess in Texas demonstrates that the electrical distribution can be problematic .
I have zero interest in powerplants that aren't vibrating oily contraptions..... Forunately I will be long gone by the time electic vehicle are common..
My wife was very nervous when it was her turn to drive the Bolt EV. Especially the 1 pedal driving. She just couldn't wrap her brain around it. Bless her heart, I told here the turn signal was still on from when I pulled over for us to switch seats and she forgot where the turn signal switch was. Now that is nervous.
At MSRP, I'm not a buyer. At the price I am hoping to buy one for, I will give it a try.
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Rough Edge is dead nuts on. Not to get political but do a bit of digging (pardon the pun) about what REALLY happens in the procurement of the raw materials needed for battery production. The collateral damage is MIND BLOWING.
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Thomas Friedman - author - "Thankyou for being late"
https://www.shortform.com/B/summary/thank-you-for-being-late-summary-thomas-l-friedman?gclid=CjwKCAiAg8OBBhA8EiwAlKw3khsrUlZ-rGs3q81fxTol128ixfqZ9yep0iPTQC4XEDe4TxlN0XAUIhoCEZ0QAvD_BwE
This is a great read, and I found it quite unnerving, the explanation of the current trend in computing power, storage and retrieval coupled to exponential advancements in software is staggering. I retired last year after 40 years in the architectural design business and I thought the computing power / software changes I witnessed in the past 20 years was amazing, what is happening now is mind blowing. As a mid size practice we saw our output double every other year, much more productivity with less people and far greater accuracy. The new design software coupled to contractor estimating and scheduling, owner / operator interface, budgeting and facility maintenance has changed the entire design and construction industry.
Just one example.
We are just at the begining.
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We are just at the begining.
this
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Thomas Friedman - author - "Thankyou for being late"
https://www.shortform.com/B/summary/thank-you-for-being-late-summary-thomas-l-friedman?gclid=CjwKCAiAg8OBBhA8EiwAlKw3khsrUlZ-rGs3q81fxTol128ixfqZ9yep0iPTQC4XEDe4TxlN0XAUIhoCEZ0QAvD_BwE
This is a great read, and I found it quite unnerving, the explanation of the current trend in computing power, storage and retrieval coupled to exponential advancements in software is staggering. I retired last year after 40 years in the architectural design business and I thought the computing power / software changes I witnessed in the past 20 years was amazing, what is happening now is mind blowing. As a mid size practice we saw our output double every other year, much more productivity with less people and far greater accuracy. The new design software coupled to contractor estimating and scheduling, owner / operator interface, budgeting and facility maintenance has changed the entire design and construction industry.
Just one example.
We are just at the begining.
It is mind bending for sure.
My company in the states that is developing a new engine is using a company in NV that can "print" casting patterns/tools
They are a total loss but you just print some more while you sleeping at home!
Never thought I'd live to see this done.
:-)
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Me too. Maybe to certain individuals once they have recouped or their grandchildren recouped the cost and maintenance of their personal solar farm.
Plus, there are the costs of maintaining power generation and distribution.
All true but not a significant cost for EV ownership. Plug it in at night when there is excess power in the grid. Cost wise, it's better than 100 mpg. And this cost is at the consumer level, not the producer, whether solar or coal (as you mention), which of course that's all passed down to the consumer + profit.
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Thomas Friedman - author - "Thankyou for being late"
https://www.shortform.com/B/summary/thank-you-for-being-late-summary-thomas-l-friedman?gclid=CjwKCAiAg8OBBhA8EiwAlKw3khsrUlZ-rGs3q81fxTol128ixfqZ9yep0iPTQC4XEDe4TxlN0XAUIhoCEZ0QAvD_BwE
This is a great read, and I found it quite unnerving, the explanation of the current trend in computing power, storage and retrieval coupled to exponential advancements in software is staggering. I retired last year after 40 years in the architectural design business and I thought the computing power / software changes I witnessed in the past 20 years was amazing, what is happening now is mind blowing. As a mid size practice we saw our output double every other year, much more productivity with less people and far greater accuracy. The new design software coupled to contractor estimating and scheduling, owner / operator interface, budgeting and facility maintenance has changed the entire design and construction industry.
Just one example.
We are just at the begining.
My youngest is working as manufacturing engineer. He's a wiz with Solidworks. He was between jobs for nearly a year and now head hunters are sending him offers. So he's trying to figure if he wants to move to a new job or stay where he's at. Those engineers like to see project through, so I'm not sure he'll move for more money. His degree is biomedical engineering.
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Rough Edge is dead nuts on. Not to get political but do a bit of digging (pardon the pun) about what REALLY happens in the procurement of the raw materials needed for battery production. The collateral damage is MIND BLOWING.
I have no pretenses about "Green Energy" Everything comes with a cost and trade-offs.
Itchy Boots came across a rural area in one South American country where they locals were going to lose their livelihood because Lithium was discovered under the dry salt lake bed where they harvested salt.
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OP forgot to mention the current materials needed for batteries and motors come from places that are troublesome. The mining operations create huge piles of spoils...This has to change and probably will over time... Meanwhile ICE technology is not stagnant so don'y bury it just yeat...And the recent mess in Texas demonstrates that the electrical distribution can be problematic .
I have zero interest in powerplants that aren't vibrating oily contraptions..... Forunately I will be long gone by the time electic vehicle are common..
:thumb: :thumb:
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My youngest is working as manufacturing engineer. He's a wiz with Solidworks. He was between jobs for nearly a year and now head hunters are sending him offers. So he's trying to figure if he wants to move to a new job or stay where he's at. Those engineers like to see project through, so I'm not sure he'll move for more money. His degree is biomedical engineering.
I would recommend not moving for money, I reviewed a lot of resumes in my time and candidates who showed a lot of movement were not considered seriously. Showing complete project completion is big plus for future opportunities.
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The Grid. Interesting read about the electrical Grid and how the Renewable energy complicates things.
https://www.amazon.com/Grid-Fraying-Between-Americans-Energy-ebook/dp/B01DM9Q6CQ/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=The+grid&qid=1613900399&sr=8-1
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Fellas , stay away from the politics of this .
Dusty
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Certainly a lot of 1st world predictions.
My prediction:
1. I will buy and use ICE powered cars, trucks and motorcycles until I have no other choice.
2. Even if forced to use E-powered cars, trucks or motorcycles I will always prefer the ICE over electric.
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Hi All, 2-21-21
ICE's will probably be here for another 3 decades in one form or another. But, eventually the momentum of progress will win out over the inertia of present technologies and modes. It always does. Once again, we can be on the bus or running behind it. :wink:
Be well, stay well,
DougG
P.S. Where there's a market...there's a way.
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"Free" electricity?
I'd like to see the math on that one.
Partly bit like this (single family houses in Finland)? Changing 12v electricity to normal 230V via suitable inverter.
(https://energiaa.ksoy.fi/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Aurinkopaneelit_talo_taivas.jpg)
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/IYXHxxLhtoyOr1zAgtyAYoebWr4Zzevq1MAw1L61_VyAvs-MGPqaZNmh-pTbDdbT16N4Am7l_t8KzsZFit4xvku8qVG5DAugTJ3GQNQIcax6HO69rl0)
(http://www.arevasolar.fi/sites/default/files/aurinkopaneelit_omakotitaloon.jpg)
(https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/f_auto,fl_progressive/q_88/w_1770,h_996,c_crop,x_0,y_84/w_1200/v1447244038/17-381535643310375f36.jpg)
(https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/w_1200,h_630,c_fit,q_80/13-3-9832392.jpg)
(https://lampoykkonen.fi/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/aurinkopaneelit-katolla-730x350px.jpg)
My next car might be BMW i3 as there starts to be enough of those in 2. hand markets. Could easily cover more than 90% of my needs of car.
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Certainly a lot of 1st world predictions.
My prediction:
1. I will buy and use ICE powered cars, trucks and motorcycles until I have no other choice.
2. Even if forced to use E-powered cars, trucks or motorcycles I will always prefer the ICE over electric.
Actually, I hope just enough people buy EVs to keep them viable, without diminishing our ICE support infrastructure. I plan to have at least one ICE Truck, and motorcycle at all times to cover all scenarios.
At the price I will hopefully buy an EV for, it makes a lot of sense for my needs in a vehicle to run errands, appointments, visits, etc. The reduced maintenance, The convenience, the recurring costs of ownership. etc.
My brain says an EV is a no brainer at the price I am hoping to pay. Where I live Electricity costs are regulated and stable. We have Hydro and Nuclear plants supplying our electricity.
Even if you have no interest in owning one, I would recommend test driving one, and test riding a Zero or Livewire, unless of course you are afraid you might enjoy it.
Our Buick Encore isolates you from the road so much that you barely know the engine is on at idle and the predominant sound when getting on it is the turbo whine. Reviewers have negative comments about the sound the Mazda makes when getting on the gas. You definitely know it is working.
The EV just scoots along and wind noise is the predominant noise you hear while driving.
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Partly bit like this (single family houses in Finland)? Changing 12v electricity to normal 230V via suitable inverter.
(https://energiaa.ksoy.fi/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Aurinkopaneelit_talo_taivas.jpg)
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/IYXHxxLhtoyOr1zAgtyAYoebWr4Zzevq1MAw1L61_VyAvs-MGPqaZNmh-pTbDdbT16N4Am7l_t8KzsZFit4xvku8qVG5DAugTJ3GQNQIcax6HO69rl0)
(http://www.arevasolar.fi/sites/default/files/aurinkopaneelit_omakotitaloon.jpg)
(https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/f_auto,fl_progressive/q_88/w_1770,h_996,c_crop,x_0,y_84/w_1200/v1447244038/17-381535643310375f36.jpg)
(https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/w_1200,h_630,c_fit,q_80/13-3-9832392.jpg)
(https://lampoykkonen.fi/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/aurinkopaneelit-katolla-730x350px.jpg)
My next car might be BMW i3 as there starts to be enough of those in 2. hand markets. Could easily cover more than 90% of my needs of car.
But, what were the costs to install all that on the houses? How many years before the break even point compared to buying electricity from the grid? Are they still required to be on the grid which has a cost associated with it even if they allow two way movement of the meter?
I've been watching videos on Solar roof systems and depending on where you live it can be as long as 30 years to break even. The difference though is if the grid goes down, you don't.
My son in New Zealand owns two 10 year old or older Prius cars he bought used, and the house he is building is going to be entirely off-grid. He is going to have solar, and a water turbine for power, and a well for water, plus a natural septic system.
Since he is building on fresh land, it makes sense to go this route based on the costs and government control over the people.
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Hi Slowmover, 2-21-21
I think you are spot on with most of your predictions. I'll just add:
1) meatless meat and finless fish...we're already well on the way.
2) we'll be eating more bugs...we already eat a certain amount (as allowed by FDA), there are now factories raising them solely for human consumption.
3) biofuels will largely replace dino fuels. (Once again, it's already happening).
4) we'll see more memory metals in vehicles - if they bend, they can be heated or electrified back into their original form.
Be well, stay well,
DougG
P.S. I can't wait for transparent aluminum (a la Star Trek)...already in the labs.
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Predictions about the future are...
...Somebody needs to read some Kevin Cameron.
https://www.cycleworld.com/story/bikes/what-if-all-automobiles-never-mind-motorcycles-were-electric/
https://www.cycleworld.com/basics-of-vehicle-efficiency-kevin-cameron-top-dead-center/
https://www.cycleworld.com/story/blogs/ask-kevin/the-persistence-of-the-piston-engine/
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So my idea of buffalo fins might really be a thing!!
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I heard the same thing at the RC airplane club some time ago. Now electric power is the overwhelming, predominate power source. There are very few still flying with ICE powered models, and even they have a collection of battery powered models.
I was flying electric powered RC 30 years ago. Using bulky nicad batteries.
RC is a bad example though. They only need power for a few minutes. And they have a fast charge source nearby, the lead acid battery in the ICE powered car nearby.
But it is a lot better than dealing with the alcohol fuel, glow plugs, and noise. We lost a lot of flying sites due to 2 cycle noise. I miss the smell of castor oil burning though. :boozing:
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Hi All, 2-21-21
Germany, Sweden, Denmark and several other northern latitude countries use a combination of solar/wind (along with other renewables), very effectively. It gets pretty cold in those places...what do they know that we don't?
Be well, stay well,
DougG
P.S. I lived in Iowa for a few years...beautiful solar and wind farms...very cold winters.
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Hi All, 2-21-21
Germany, Sweden, Denmark and several other northern latitude countries use a combination of solar/wind (along with other renewables), very effectively. It gets pretty cold in those places...what do they know that we don't?
Be well, stay well,
DougG
P.S. I lived in Iowa for a few years...beautiful solar and wind farms...very cold winters.
No fair comparison between small Nordic countries and even Germany with the far larger USA.
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Actually, I hope just enough people buy EVs to keep them viable, without diminishing our ICE support infrastructure. I plan to have at least one ICE Truck, and motorcycle at all times to cover all scenarios.
At the price I will hopefully buy an EV for, it makes a lot of sense for my needs in a vehicle to run errands, appointments, visits, etc. The reduced maintenance, The convenience, the recurring costs of ownership. etc.
My brain says an EV is a no brainer at the price I am hoping to pay. Where I live Electricity costs are regulated and stable. We have Hydro and Nuclear plants supplying our electricity.
Even if you have no interest in owning one, I would recommend test driving one, and test riding a Zero or Livewire, unless of course you are afraid you might enjoy it.
Our Buick Encore isolates you from the road so much that you barely know the engine is on at idle and the predominant sound when getting on it is the turbo whine. Reviewers have negative comments about the sound the Mazda makes when getting on the gas. You definitely know it is working.
The EV just scoots along and wind noise is the predominant noise you hear while driving.
Yep I a afraid to try an EV :rolleyes: I'll stick with ICE where I feel safe.
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Never say never.
I heard the same thing at the RC airplane club some time ago. Now electric power is the overwhelming, predominate power source. There are very few still flying with ICE powered models, and even they have a collection of battery powered models.
There would have been a time when I would have said the same. Now, I'm not so certain of that. I'm not a spring chicken any more, but I could see this in my auto future.
Just saying...
John Henry
Never and forced are not the same.
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Solar panels worked in Texas. So did wind turbines. Oh, wait...
Predictions about the future are...
...Somebody needs to read some Kevin Cameron.
https://www.cycleworld.com/story/bikes/what-if-all-automobiles-never-mind-motorcycles-were-electric/
https://www.cycleworld.com/basics-of-vehicle-efficiency-kevin-cameron-top-dead-center/
https://www.cycleworld.com/story/blogs/ask-kevin/the-persistence-of-the-piston-engine/
Interesting articles by someone who is a motojournalist.
I'm sure you do realize that there are very smart people out there who participate in "think tanks" to work out all these "what if" scenarios. Many of these "think tanks" are kept classified for national security.
Personally, I like the idea of where feasible, installing personal wind turbines, solar panels, etc. to take on the increased demand to charge vehicles at home. Solar panels have come down in price and have improved capacities over the years. If you can install yourself, you save $10s of thousands of dollars in labor.
In my area, if you do solar panels while still connected to the grid, you don't need a storage capability. The excess energy you create during the day runs your meter backwards and the amount you need at night to heat or cool your home and charge your car gets pulled from the grid. This helps the power companies with the extra demand during the day from those that need more than their solar panels can produce.
Personally, I think Solar and wind turbines are real eyesores ruining the natural beauty where they are usually installed out in the country. They should mount them on top of city buildings IMO.
Right now is the time to own an EV before the market is saturated and the grid stressed.
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Yep I a afraid to try an EV :rolleyes: I'll stick with ICE where I feel safe.
How did you get that out of what I posted? I said "Afraid you might like it" Nothing to do with you wanting to be in your safe place.
The reason I don't test ride the V85TT, is because I'm afraid I might like it and will have to figure out a way to buy it.
You do seem to have a unique way of interpreting what people post on this forum. :shocked:
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Splain "buffalo fins" :huh:
John Henry
Like buffalo wings only fish, maybe buffalo gills?
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I guess my definition of free is different than yours.
Speaking of cars...would you like a free car? I have a 2004 Mercury Marauder. Give me $12,500 cash and it's yours for free. :grin:
Partly bit like this (single family houses in Finland)? Changing 12v electricity to normal 230V via suitable inverter.
(https://energiaa.ksoy.fi/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Aurinkopaneelit_talo_taivas.jpg)
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/IYXHxxLhtoyOr1zAgtyAYoebWr4Zzevq1MAw1L61_VyAvs-MGPqaZNmh-pTbDdbT16N4Am7l_t8KzsZFit4xvku8qVG5DAugTJ3GQNQIcax6HO69rl0)
(http://www.arevasolar.fi/sites/default/files/aurinkopaneelit_omakotitaloon.jpg)
(https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/f_auto,fl_progressive/q_88/w_1770,h_996,c_crop,x_0,y_84/w_1200/v1447244038/17-381535643310375f36.jpg)
(https://images.cdn.yle.fi/image/upload/w_1200,h_630,c_fit,q_80/13-3-9832392.jpg)
(https://lampoykkonen.fi/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/aurinkopaneelit-katolla-730x350px.jpg)
My next car might be BMW i3 as there starts to be enough of those in 2. hand markets. Could easily cover more than 90% of my needs of car.
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Germany's Electric /Green Energy was /is also heavily subsidized to get there, now 'stop ' to some now Projects for Wind.
I'm pro Water [ Hydro Plants like Here in MB ,...Norway pretty much all ], Sun and Wind .
Have a little Panel Set up for my Shop ,came with a cost tho.
Wanted to do Solar would have cost me up here $ 40000 US for a single Dwelling ,well thats some thing to chew on .
Plus will Electric stay 'cheap ' when the whole World will plug in their Cars ,hmmm .... .
Usually if something is being made to go away [ Oil ]something else will /has to replace it ,....but not for 'free or cheap '.
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How did you get that out of what I posted? I said "Afraid you might like it" Nothing to do with you wanting to be in your safe place.
The reason I don't test ride the V85TT, is because I'm afraid I might like it and will have to figure out a way to buy it.
You do seem to have a unique way of interpreting what people post on this forum. :shocked:
Why do you assume that everyone who does not like or care for EV's has not tried them?
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Why do you assume that everyone who does not like or care for EV's has not tried them?
Because if they had, they would have stated it, now wouldn't they? Why would you not say. "Yes, I took a test ride, and they are just not for me." That would give more credence to your opinion. :shocked:
What purpose would it serve in a conversation to hold back that bit of knowledge?
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Because if they had, they would have stated it, now wouldn't they? Why would you not say. "Yes, I took a test ride, and they are just not for me." That would give more credence to your opinion. :shocked:
What purpose would it serve in a conversation to hold back that bit of knowledge?
I didn't offer an opinion on EV's.
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Interesting article in our paper this morning about battery technology and the power grid. best estimate at this moment is 1.3 TRILLION needed in grid improvements and new sources of raw materials needed as demand already outstrips supply. Further, most seem to think the next real improvement will be in a solid state battery. The fact was mentioned that any gel/liquid/Li type as exists now is too much of a fire hazard. Solid State also, they thought, will allow for much faster charging without nearly the approx 2% power loss per year present battery tech suffers with. In addition, the highest and best use of existing battery tech is to use them between 80% and 20% with the absolute best performance/life tradeoff being charge to 70% and use to 60% and repeat. Charging to 100% and then down to reserve level results in between 2-3% loss in total capacity per year and high heat (SW USA?) is even worse on battery life. Interesting read for sure.
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Hi All, 2-21-21
"No fair comparison between small Nordic countries and even Germany with the far larger USA."
Yup, you're right. The good 'ol US of A has:
1) far more research universities and high energy laboratories (new technology breeding grounds)
2) far more solar insolation (watts/square meter)
3) far more dam potential rivers (TVA, etc.)
4) far more flat pains (reliable wind power)
5) far more coastline (wave/wind power)
6) with the exception of Greenland and Iceland, far more potential geothermal energy
...than all those countries (combined) that I had mentioned.
I'm not trying to start an argument here (there is no basis for one). These are simply facts...mathematica lly verified facts. You can believe me, I recognize that each power producer has its drawbacks. The laws of thermodynamics explicitly state that it is impossible to convert one form of energy to another without some form of waste.
As a nation, we can do better...and I believe we will. Remember, in the grand scheme of the world...we're still a baby (young) country...but we're making headway. :wink:
Be well, stay well,
DougG
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Yep. I hope we get it right instead of politically correct-which means the "leaders" will screw the pooch royally.
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I agree, but. The guys flying electric had to hand launch always. The motors were inefficient and the batteries were heavy. That has changed now. The whole power system has drastically improved. Taking off from any surface is not a problem. Grass. snow, water. Depending on the particular model, flight times equal to the average flight time of gas is not unusual.
I will confess I too miss the smell of castor oil, but I don't miss cleaning all that goop off the plane before heading home from the field. And, the hours we can fly as a courtesy to the neighbors are not restricted by noise constraints. gas is still limited to those hours. Fly earlier, stay later. Even models with an array of LED's for night flying if you really want to.
The main point I was trying to make is how much more efficient power systems have become, which will eventually translate into the practical world where the masses will be able to take advantage.
John Henry
Ahhh the sweet smell of Nitro.......... I remember it well. :thumb:
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We have a 4x4 Yamaha Rhino side by side used for chores on our property...The engine, strange that its a 660cc single cylinder 5 valve, is run for short periods at a time...Not good for the engine... This vehicle and most ATV's would be a perfect candidate for electric power. Or a retro fit kit for existing machines. If I had more interest ,it would be easy to covert it. Need an electric motor equal to about a 30 Hp gas engine., more power than a golf cart is required.
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I didn't offer an opinion on EV's.
My bad. I interpreted your comment as an opinion. Now I know you were just stirring the pot. :evil:
Certainly a lot of 1st world predictions.
My prediction:
1. I will buy and use ICE powered cars, trucks and motorcycles until I have no other choice.
2. Even if forced to use E-powered cars, trucks or motorcycles I will always prefer the ICE over electric.
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From twowheeladdict:
If you can install yourself, you save $10s of thousands of dollars in labor.
Tens of thousands just for labor? A less than two years ago I had this 8K system installed. Total cost after tax credit was just over $13K. My avg. monthly bill has gone from $250+ to $72.
(https://i.ibb.co/gdHK7y8/Screen-Shot-2021-02-21-at-11-18-41-AM.png) (https://ibb.co/gdHK7y8)
GliderJohn
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From twowheeladdict:Tens of thousands just for labor? A less than two years ago I had this 8K system installed. Total cost after tax credit was just over $13K. My avg. monthly bill has gone from $250+ to $72.
(https://i.ibb.co/gdHK7y8/Screen-Shot-2021-02-21-at-11-18-41-AM.png) (https://ibb.co/gdHK7y8)
GliderJohn
Non union workers I'd imagine.
That is pretty decent. Your break even is in 6 years. What is the expected service life and do the panel's output degrade over time?
I was basing this on a few videos like this one. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rCKYm1BJYY
He paid $29,609 for 9.49 kW DC system of 26 panels around the same time as you. After his $8,883 tax credit he is out $20,726. So, while not $10s of thousands probably $15,000 in savings if you can install yourself depending where you live. Material costs should be about the same, so the additional costs are labor. If you add in some type of storage capability to condition the power and provide power during outages labor costs will go up also.
I do wonder what the additional costs are going to be when a roof needs replacing.
Are the solar panels hail stone rated to a certain size hail stone? Did your homeowners insurance go up when you told your insurance agent about the panels?
You have reduced you bill which is great. What happens if you generate more than you need? Do you have an agreement with the power company?
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But, what were the costs to install all that on the houses? How many years before the break even point compared to buying electricity from the grid? Are they still required to be on the grid which has a cost associated with it even if they allow two way movement of the meter?
I've been watching videos on Solar roof systems and depending on where you live it can be as long as 30 years to break even. The difference though is if the grid goes down, you don't.
My son in New Zealand owns two 10 year old or older Prius cars he bought used, and the house he is building is going to be entirely off-grid. He is going to have solar, and a water turbine for power, and a well for water, plus a natural septic system.
Since he is building on fresh land, it makes sense to go this route based on the costs and government control over the people.
I guess that variates between countries, climates ... and even in here .... case by case (depending what kind of heating system you have in house). If you have ''the best one'' geothermal heating ... I guess it would never payback. But if one has electricity heated radiators, electricity heated warm water etc ... the investement can (in some cases) payback in 12 - 15 years. Of course depending what kind of solar system you will also create. Some even produces more electricity than they use ... selling the rest to local electicity companies.
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Fascinating. So we can’t ever progress. We can never have wind or solar power ( too expensive per kw/hr ). Cant ever raise the minimum wage ( if we do small businesses will have to fire everyone). Guess we are stuck in the 1800s and have to burn coal forever. Who’d have thought Guzzisti would fear the future
I recommend reading Thomas Sowell the highly regarded economist on the subject. https://www.aei.org/economics/thomas-sowell-on-the-cruelty-of-minimum-wage-laws/
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I guess that variates between countries, climates ... and even in here .... case by case (depending what kind of heating system you have in house). If you have ''the best one'' geothermal heating ... I guess it would never payback. But if one has electricity heated radiators, electricity heated warm water etc ... the investement can (in some cases) payback in 12 - 15 years. Of course depending what kind of solar system you will also create. Some even produces more electricity than they use ... selling the rest to local electicity companies.
Of course that would mean you have to be connected to the grid which is OK if you can enter an agreement with the company on putting energy back into the grid.
For Off-Grid living, you now have to have storage capability to have consistent supply of power for the low generation times. I know New Zealand prices are going to be very high compared to US, but I am awaiting the results from my son's desire to not be connected. They should start a YouTube Channel. :wink:
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Of course that would mean you have to be connected to the grid which is OK if you can enter an agreement with the company on putting energy back into the grid.
For Off-Grid living, you now have to have storage capability to have consistent supply of power for the low generation times. I know New Zealand prices are going to be very high compared to US, but I am awaiting the results from my son's desire to not be connected. They should start a YouTube Channel. :wink:
Sorry, yes of course.
I'm someway interesting about this issue if I will continue our farm (I'm only child of my parents). This is very small farm ... and only alive as my parents moved to fully organic farming (producing high quality products selling those directly to local customers ... no middle men). My mother is stubborn as me :azn:. Both of my parents have office works (first generation) but also this farm as 2. income. If I would continue it, I could start to produce cheeses (not only milk, eggs, salads, crops etc.). For that I would need to make investment (get small scale dairy). Energy (cost) is always one matter to think if you live as north as Scandinavia.
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Fellas , any chance we can keep the political and social commentary out of this ?
Dusty
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What your Tesla just stopped going , on the highway ! Well you did the right thing , having it brought to a certified repair facility . Yes we’re very busy , we should be able to get to it in a few days . We’re very sorry about this inconvenience & you are a valued customer but we are doing the beat we can . Would like to temporarily rent another unit ? Good news , we got your vehicle in earlier than anticipated. Bad news we’ve not seen that component fail & don’t have one in stock , our parts system is awaiting fulfillment as we speak . We’ll notify you when it arrives. We installed a new component , yes I know 3 weeks is a long time . However the defective component was keeping our diagnostic system from seeing the collateral damaged by its failure . The additional support items are on priority express order . No we are terribly sorry but can’t give you an exact date for completion as it appears to an isolated failure . To be continued !
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From two wheeladdict:
Non union workers I'd imagine.
That is pretty decent. Your break even is in 6 years. What is the expected service life and do the panel's output degrade over time?
I was basing this on a few videos like this one. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rCKYm1BJYY
He paid $29,609 for 9.49 kW DC system of 26 panels around the same time as you. After his $8,883 tax credit he is out $20,726. So, while not $10s of thousands probably $15,000 in savings if you can install yourself depending where you live. Material costs should be about the same, so the additional costs are labor. If you add in some type of storage capability to condition the power and provide power during outages labor costs will go up also.
I do wonder what the additional costs are going to be when a roof needs replacing.
Are the solar panels hail stone rated to a certain size hail stone? Did your homeowners insurance go up when you told your insurance agent about the panels?
You have reduced you bill which is great. What happens if you generate more than you need? Do you have an agreement with the power company?
My system was installed by non-union workers as is common here with smaller businesses. The electronics are warranted for 10 years and the panels for 20. In 20 years they are suppose to still be 85%+.
The panels are warranted for up to two inch hail. They have survived two significant hail storms with no damage which totaled our 15 year old composite house roof.
Insurance went up a bit because they are insuring more value.
KS has "net metering" by the month, meaning that within a month period whatever I produce against what I use is applied to my billing. So if I use a 1000KW and produce 1,200KW I will not have to pay for any electricity that month but the electric company will not pay me for the excess nor let me carry the surplus into the next month. The meter starts from 0 each month. So the trick is to have a big enough system but not too big as you would just be wasting money.
BTW the systems health is monitored automatically by the company through the internet. I was told that they would probably know before me if there was a problem.
GliderJohn
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Of course that would mean you have to be connected to the grid which is OK if you can enter an agreement with the company on putting energy back into the grid.
For Off-Grid living, you now have to have storage capability to have consistent supply of power for the low generation times. I know New Zealand prices are going to be very high compared to US, but I am awaiting the results from my son's desire to not be connected. They should start a YouTube Channel. :wink:
What rate does your local power company pay for power put back into the grid not produced by them? Around here its pennies per kilowatt hour. I had a very good customer get burned buy this promise. Turns out its way more cost effective to turn their plant off than to sell excess power company electricity.
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So are we predicting "if" it happens or "when"?
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From two wheeladdict:My system was installed by non-union workers as is common here with smaller businesses. The electronics are warranted for 10 years and the panels for 20. In 20 years they are suppose to still be 85%+.
The panels are warranted for up to two inch hail. They have survived two significant hail storms with no damage which totaled our 15 year old composite house roof.
Insurance went up a bit because they are insuring more value.
KS has "net metering" by the month, meaning that within a month period whatever I produce against what I use is applied to my billing. So if I use a 1000KW and produce 1,200KW I will not have to pay for any electricity that month but the electric company will not pay me for the excess nor let me carry the surplus into the next month. The meter starts from 0 each month. So the trick is to have a big enough system but not too big as you would just be wasting money.
BTW the systems health is monitored automatically by the company through the internet. I was told that they would probably know before me if there was a problem.
GliderJohn
Great information. Thanks. :thumb:
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That's quite the list... My thoughts in bold.
1. Auto repair shops will disappear... Not in the next 50-75 years and until private ownership is prohibited
2. A gas/diesel engine has 20,000 individual parts... An electrical motor has 20... Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are repaired only by dealers... It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric motor... True, but many subsystems and convertors, battery pack and intermediae systems/sensors are the weak point
3. Faulty electric motors are NOT repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with ROBOTS... Perhaps, but will likely NOT be repaired, but replaced most of these electric motors are not serviceable
4. Your electric motor malfunction light goes on... so you drive up to what looks like a car wash, and your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee... Then your car comes out on the other side with a new electric motor or component...Perhaps for your Porsche or Lexus EV, not for the average joe
5. Gas stations will go away... Maybe in 50-75 years, but unlikely
6. Street corners will have meters that dispense electricity... Companies will install electrical recharging stations... in fact, they've already started in the developed world...Already here, but can't keep up with the 2% current ownership. Grids can't support more EV's even as we ponder. The REAL future is onboard power generation i.e. Hydrogen
7. Smart major auto manufacturers have already designated money to start building new plants that build ONLY electric cars... Foolish and short sighted unless they are considering other power sources than battery.
8 � The "Coal Industries" will go away... Gasoline/oil companies will go away... Drilling for oil will stop... So say goodbye to OPEC... The Middle East is in trouble...Never gonna happen. Coal is most likely, but plastics and such are still dependent on oil. It's not all about gasoline
9. Homes will produce and store more electrical energy during the day than they use... It will be sold back to "The Grid"... The Grid will store and dispense it, to the industries that are high electricity users. Has anybody seen the Tesla roof? Possibly, but recent studies are talking about the negative effects of solar panels in raising global temps https://www.inverse.com/science/why-turning-the-sahara-into-a-giant-solar-farm-could-damage-the-global-climate I'm planning a Tesla Roof and Power wall in my retirement home
10. A baby of today will only see "personal cars" in museums. The FUTURE is approaching faster than most of us can even handle...Shsheer nonsense perhaps great great grandchildren
11. In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide... Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt... Who would have thought of that ever happening?
12. What happened to Kodak and Polaroid will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years ... and most people don't even see it coming...
13. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later, you would never take pictures on film again? With today's smartphones, who even has a camera these days?
14. Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975... The first ones only had 10,000 pixels but followed Moore's law... As with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment in the beginning ... before it became superior and mainstream in only a few short years...The digital camera phenomenon is similar to most of the personal consumer devices. Music players, radios, cameras, phones. Motor vehicles are a very different category, little comparison IMO
15. It will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence (AI), health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs...AI is intriguing. I work in Army/DOD policy and the ethics and impact of AI is huge, still much ground to travel here
16. Forget the book, "Future Shock," welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution...
17. Software has disrupted and will continue to disrupt most traditional industries... (in the next 5 to 10 years...Absolutely true, particularly in the service industry. Food, Transport, Repairs, Service, people are being replaced every second by AI and algorithms.
18. UBER, is just a software tool (they don't own any cars), and are now the biggest taxi company in the world... (Ask any taxi driver if they saw that coming...
19. AIR-BnB is now the biggest hotel company in the world .. (they don't own any properties)... Ask Hilton Hotels or the Marriott if they saw that coming...
20. Artificial Intelligence (AI): Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world... This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world... (10 years earlier than expected)...
21. In the USA, young lawyers already don't get jobs (because of IBM's WATSON)... you can get legal advice within a few seconds so for the basic stuff... with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.. So, if you're studying law, THINK AGAIN... There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, what a thought and only omniscient specialists will remain...Not heard of this, but ut no frame of reference either[/b]
22. WATSON already helps nurses diagnosing cancer... it's 4-times more accurate and many times faster than human nurses...Eh, this is a BIG exaggeration. This is true in limited sample tests, but not universally. Watson and databases/AI is a GREAT resource however
23. Facebook now has a 'face recognition' software that can recognize faces better than humans... In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans...You've no idea how this is being used across all platforms and sectors, including voice print and individual identifiers. All passive AI right now, and involves your digital signature, facial and voice recognition, and personal identifier. If they want to watch you closely, they can with a flip of a switch. Every move, location, text, purchase, message, e-mail, phone call, etc. It is all captured as meta data. You shouldn't be worried about the GOVT, you should be worried about Google, Amazon, Microsoft and their servers, not to mention FB, etc.
24. Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars were already here... In the next few years, the entire auto industry will start to be disrupted... You won't want to own a car any more as you will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination...This is years away, and not possible for recreational and rural realities. However, cities, new planned communities, populated areas, you are spot on.
25. You will not need to park it, you will pay only for the 'driven distance' and you can be productive while driving. The very young children of today will never get a driver's license and they will never own a car... LOL, you must've been in the bourbon ;-)
26. This will change our cities because we will need 90% to 95% fewer cars... We can transform former parking spaces into green city parks...Absolutely, as said above, this is largely an Urban vision. This if realized would also FORCE people to the cities, resulting in huge levels of poverty, joblessness, crime, and dependency. Asimov envisioned this in his "Caves of Steel" Novels
27. About 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents (worldwide). That includes distracted or drunk drivers... We currently have one accident every 60,000 miles driven... However with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in about 6 million miles... That will save a million plus lives, worldwide each year...Overpopulation will lead to disease starvation etc......Darwin should NOT be messed with ;-)
28. Most traditional car companies will doubtless become bankrupt.. They will try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car ... while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels...Already happening.
29. Look at what Volvo is doing right now... no more internal combustion engines in their vehicles starting this year with the 2020 models... They are using all-electric or hybrid only (with the intent of phasing out hybrid models in the not too distant future)...
30. Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla... Look at all the companies offering all-electric vehicles... That was unheard of, only a few years ago... Battery powered EV's are just transitional, and without severe idiotic well meaning Western political actions, EV's will not exceed 25% of all vehicles in the next 75 years.
31. Insurance companies will have massive trouble too... because, without accidents, the costs of insurance will become cheaper... Their car insurance business model will disappear...Eh, payouts will drop too, and they will still make $$ hand over fist
32. Real estate will change... Because if you can work while you commute, or you can work from your home... people will abandon their towers to move far away to more beautiful and affordable properties.This is already happening, but strangely, Amazon is going against the grain with their huge campus they are building near me. They are planning a literal ziggurat with out door spiral park and building a green walking route to Ronald Reagan airport, with all kinds of other upgrades to the area. They are building 4 huge office buildings on their campus, adjacent to Crystal City that is already mostly empty for commercial use. Many are converting to living areas, but we are festooned with new business and living construction, it is nuts
33. Electric cars will become mainstream by about 2030... Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run ONLY on electricity...Infrastructure can barely keep up with where we are now. Maybe 2050-2075, and only in the largest best resourced cities
34. Cities will have much cleaner air...A good thing indeed
35. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean, eventually free...
Uh, this goes against EVERY free market concept. Without reliable robust sources, Electricity will be in demand and prices will be sky high. IMO, clean coal, gas, and return to Nuclear is the only way ahead. Solar, and wind are fantasy for anything beyond supplemental
36. Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years... but you can now see the burgeoning impact... and it's just starting to get ramped up...
Perhaps NOT the best solution if slowing 'global warming' is an objective..... https://www.inverse.com/science/why-turning-the-sahara-into-a-giant-solar-farm-could-damage-the-global-climate
37. Fossil energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid... to prevent competition from home solar installations... but that simply cannot continue... Technology will take care of that strategy in the not too distant future... Clean Fossil Fuel tech is the best way ahead unless we are going to get serious with Nuclear
38. Health: The Tricorder X, price will be announced this year... There are companies who will build a medical device called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, a sample of your blood, then you breathe into it... It then analyzes 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease.. There are dozens of phone apps out there right now for health...
WELCOME TO TOMORROW. To think, I used to complain about my parents and grandparents being "out of it."
That was fun. Certainly we are making advances never before dreamed, and the new space race will only further advance all these energy and AI technologies, but change comes slowly. Carbon based power is still cheap, efficient, and increasingly clean. It's not going away any time soon. Just ask China, India and Russia............. ...
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I have no pretenses about "Green Energy" Everything comes with a cost and trade-offs.
Good point, well put!
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What rate does your local power company pay for power put back into the grid not produced by them? Around here its pennies per kilowatt hour. I had a very good customer get burned buy this promise. Turns out its way more cost effective to turn their plant off than to sell excess power company electricity.
I don't have a pressing need for solar yet, but I doubt they would give a credit since we have some of the cheapest electric in the country. I liked GliderJohn's response about matching the system with the need.
My monthly average for 2020 with us home 24/7 minus 30 days camping for me, and 10 days camping for my wife is a whopping $117.72 a month on total electric property.
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BD9- they'll be gas stations and repair shops for the foreseeable future so long as there are collectors.
For the general public, there are already mandates planned to cease ICE production by the end of the decade and to get them off the road in 20 years. No doubt they'll be allowances for collectors and owners of legacy vehicles but those may not be for practical transportation due lack of ready fuel and maintenance facilities.
Whether those goals will be achieved is speculation but it appears that we're headed that way with few impediments.
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My add-on predictions:
Blue (with Carbon capture ) then Green (from renewable electricity) Hydrogen fuels heavy industry & shipping
Electric bicycles in cities is the future
Passive Haus principles for new residential buildings
home battery storage systems and smart meters creating demand response tariffs ; eg you're paid to feed your EV & home batteries into the grid at peak times.
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What you think about this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odyWeWoNNng (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odyWeWoNNng)
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My point was the old adage, if it’s go wheels it’s going to give ya trouble. Ive heard all the predictions as to how trouble freed electric vehicles will be . That said a local towing agency has towed a number of electric & hybrid units . After all if they’re impervious to failure why do they have a warranty. The same can be said for solar panels. Don’t get me wrong I’m not anti progress just skeptical of the utopian promises made . I’ve noticed hydro power is kinda a back burner issue yet the potential for power storage is relatively pollution free . During periods of low demand use the power to pump water into a reasovoir then upon demand release it no expensive, short lived relatively battery required . Centuries ago an Archimedes screw or screws were used to raise the water until needed. Once again just my $.02
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Hi All, 2-21-21
"No fair comparison between small Nordic countries and even Germany with the far larger USA."
Yup, you're right. The good 'ol US of A has:
1) far more research universities and high energy laboratories (new technology breeding grounds)
2) far more solar insolation (watts/square meter)
3) far more dam potential rivers (TVA, etc.)
4) far more flat pains (reliable wind power)
5) far more coastline (wave/wind power)
6) with the exception of Greenland and Iceland, far more potential geothermal energy
...than all those countries (combined) that I had mentioned.
I'm not trying to start an argument here (there is no basis for one). These are simply facts...mathematica lly verified facts. You can believe me, I recognize that each power producer has its drawbacks. The laws of thermodynamics explicitly state that it is impossible to convert one form of energy to another without some form of waste.
As a nation, we can do better...and I believe we will. Remember, in the grand scheme of the world...we're still a baby (young) country...but we're making headway. :wink:
Be well, stay well,
DougG
The USA has 330 million people and a far more diverse population that the countries you mentioned...It's far more difficult to get a consensus of opinion on anything...
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What you think about this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odyWeWoNNng (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odyWeWoNNng)
The BMW i3 is a nice looking car, but extremely compact so not very practical.
With a compact car (I like compact cars :grin:) I would go for one that could carry passengers in the rear seats and a little luggage. Peugeot e-208 and e-2008, Nissan Leaf (one of my daughters has one, I like driving it) and VW Golf are good fully electric examples.
The i3 was a best seller here a few years ago. Not many sold now, new car models are more advanced, and as mentioned it's extremely compact.
Why do you want one? :grin:
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My point was the old adage, if it’s go wheels it’s going to give ya trouble. Ive heard all the predictions as to how trouble freed electric vehicles will be . That said a local towing agency has towed a number of electric & hybrid units . After all if they’re impervious to failure why do they have a warranty. The same can be said for solar panels. Don’t get me wrong I’m not anti progress just skeptical of the utopian promises made . I’ve noticed hydro power is kinda a back burner issue yet the potential for power storage is relatively pollution free . During periods of low demand use the power to pump water into a reasovoir then upon demand release it no expensive, short lived relatively battery required . Centuries ago an Archimedes screw or screws were used to raise the water until needed. Once again just my $.02
So, I'm guessing you don't ride a Moto Guzzi. :wink:
Hydro is king here in the Tennessee Valley and no shortage of water flow. The dams also tamed the river to make it navigable.
Take a look at the Smith Mountain Lake Hydro Dam in VA It is a pump storage Hydro Dam. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smith_Mountain_Dam
The US has 21 GW of pump storage Hydroelectric. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydroelectric_power_in_the_United_States#Pumped_storage
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Why do you want one? :grin:
As electric cars ... those can be found pretty decent price range as second hand.
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What you think about this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odyWeWoNNng (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odyWeWoNNng)
my retired friend had one of these , loves it . Its from the design school of thought that electric cars need to be stripped down to save weight so rather sparse inside . Another friend looked at the i£ but in the end went for an VW eGolf , as that looks like a normal ICE Golf until you pop the bonnet.
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I too struggled with the Free Electricity concept. It's been a while since I looked at what state the industry is at now, but I don't believe renewables on their own are going to even look at the coming shortfall let alone make any kind of dent in it.
Given the timescales being banded about by governments, it's already too late for nuclear which takes forever to design and build and IMHO is about the only viable option on the table as of now. Sure there is talk of carbon capture, cleaner fossil fuel burning, large battery banks etc:
Already talk here in Blighty on the media of placing a tax onto gas, as they want to discourage domestic gas boilers and persuade people to purchase heat pumps. I doubt that will happen anytime soon, given the cost and performance of them.
Given that almost all energy requirements in this Brave New World will be electricity and demand will start to soar, government here is doing what government does, kicking the obvious critical (but hard to address) issues into the long grass and instead talking about all the easy options.
That's why I don't think it will happen at anything like the timescales being banded around and there is going to be a lot more people heading for energy poverty (This is not accounting for the fact we have a private sector energy industry which has been ripping us off for a long time into the bargain).
I doubt the electorate would stand for it and whoever gets in shall have to slow down or row back some policies.
I'm not trying to be political here, I don't care who or what colour or flag they represent, it's just the way I see things going. Lots of talk but no serious attempts to address the Elephant in the room
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changes are coming how soon ??? There will be a lot of industries and jobs lost and hopefully some new jobs created. Oil change places gone, exhaust systems gone , dealerships gone as gm and ford trying to sell vehicles direct thru a loop hole . Lets face reality which is a good percent of young people would be happy calling a car to pick them up and drop them off at their destination while playing on their phones and not worry about driving . A lot of things are loss and more will be I remember my father showing me how to clean a car at a very young age how many 13 years old know how to wash a car . It's kind of the internet a lot of information but some thing were gone because of it , I miss going to library to do research and learn how to something now it is just a click away , I enjoyed going to a store and looking at something before purchasing I'm kind of angry , I'm also happy because we do need to make things cleaner , I'm kind of sad and I'm very confused . I will do my best to change with times can't fight technology .
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Lets face reality which is a good percent of young people would be happy calling a car to pick them up and drop them off at their destination while playing on their phones and not worry about driving .
This phenomenon has been going on for years. Uber and Lyft.
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The free electricity crap is just that. While sunshine & wind may be free to tap, the machinery & infrastructure to do it will never be free. They may get the costs ridiculously low, and they will, but there is no such thing as free.
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Something to consider , as we move slowly to more people working from home the demand on the electric grid should diminish . Fewer offices needing climate control and lighting . Combined with more energy efficient appliances we might not see quite the spike some are predicting .
Another factor involved is the advent and implementation of small solar plants like both Gliderjohn and Luap have at their respective places . Every small solar plant reduces the load on the grid , as posted by our member from Finland , solar is almost ubiquitous in some places . Despite our turtle like speed in adapting new tech here , it is happening , and will continue to do so . Hell , even tech as proven as tankless water heaters still baffles many of us , and yet at least two WG members have installed them after asking me about their efficiency and durability .
Dusty
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The free electricity crap is just that. While sunshine & wind may be free to tap, the machinery & infrastructure to do it will never be free. They may get the costs ridiculously low, and they will, but there is no such thing as free.
In the absence of massive new energy storage capability, the infrastructure is doubled when using solar and wind because you need to have a reliable backup when those renewables are not available for an extended period - no sun for week, ice storms causing issues with windmills and so on. Reliable and renewable are not mutually exclusive, there is hydro and geothermal, but mostly that means natural gas, coal or nuclear plants. Countries or states that don’t want those on their territory rely on the ability to import power across borders when needed from those who do, and thereby remain green to those who aren’t looking too closely. The game is to compare demand with installed renewable capacity and if they are equal to say there’s a local green generating capacity equal to demand, neglecting to mention the installed capacity that can actually be realized when averaged over a year. The difference has to be produced somewhere, even if it’s imported from outside the sphere of local politics.
On a global basis the main theoretical advantage of electric transportation is the ability to use very expensive renewables when they are available (with the expensive cost properly factoring in the price of a reliable underutilized backup into the total) combined with the resource saving that comes with the higher thermal efficiency of gas fired plants versus small IC engines. If you go along with that and do find somebody willing to pay for it, the huge increase in infrastructure cost ends up saving a fraction of the non-renewable fossil fuels that would otherwise be used. In reality, now, there’s no way to pay for that situation except in limited cases and places so electric cars are mainly powered by natural gas burned in efficient engines (power plants). No amount of making and selling electric cars will change that situation without huge new infrastructure cost and/or new grid energy storage technology. Just as battery capacity is the limiting factor for the practicality of electric cars, I think energy storage capacity on the grid is the limiting factor for the practicality of using relatively unreliable renewable power without a fossil fuel backup. For now even when and where renewables are available that backup (or in most cases primary) source of electrical power is coal and natural gas plants, with natural gas slowly replacing coal due to cheaper gas availability.
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my retired friend had one of these , loves it . Its from the design school of thought that electric cars need to be stripped down to save weight so rather sparse inside . Another friend looked at the i£ but in the end went for an VW eGolf , as that looks like a normal ICE Golf until you pop the bonnet.
I've driven the Chevy Bolt, not the i3 or VW, I think the Bolt has it over for both of them regarding practically, range, performance, and (Guzzi content) cost.
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changes are coming how soon ??? There will be a lot of industries and jobs lost and hopefully some new jobs created. Oil change places gone, exhaust systems gone , dealerships gone as gm and ford trying to sell vehicles direct thru a loop hole . Lets face reality which is a good percent of young people would be happy calling a car to pick them up and drop them off at their destination while playing on their phones and not worry about driving . A lot of things are loss and more will be I remember my father showing me how to clean a car at a very young age how many 13 years old know how to wash a car . It's kind of the internet a lot of information but some thing were gone because of it , I miss going to library to do research and learn how to something now it is just a click away , I enjoyed going to a store and looking at something before purchasing I'm kind of angry , I'm also happy because we do need to make things cleaner , I'm kind of sad and I'm very confused . I will do my best to change with times can't fight technology .
The lost jobs are a positive thing. Pay everyone more wages and work fewer hours. Share productivity gains with society.
Disagree with that? Then plow a field with a mule and forget about the tractors. The 40 hour work week is 80 years old. Let's go to 35. Everyone gets 5 hours off of free time or add 5 hours of additional overtime to everyone working 40.
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The first law of thermodynamics, also known as Law of Conservation of Energy, states that energy can neither be created nor destroyed; energy can only be transferred or changed from one form to another
The concept of "green energy" has always puzzled me and the assertion that essentially it just needs harvesting via sola panels, windmills, wave generators, etc. and has no effect on anything
The First Law of Thermodynamics might suggests that could be problematic
This "free energy" generally comes to us in one form or another, so if we gather this energy to do things humans see as important its no longer available to do whatever it was doing before
Discuss
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The lost jobs are a positive thing. Pay everyone more wages and work fewer hours. Share productivity gains with society.
Disagree with that? Then plow a field with a mule and forget about the tractors. The 40 hour work week is 80 years old. Let's go to 35. Everyone gets 5 hours off of free time or add 5 hours of additional overtime to everyone working 40.
Too many people still think you can live in the past on a large scale. Buggy & harness makers were jobs lost. Corn used to be picked by hand. Most oil at one time came from whaling. It's a never ending cycle and tech & time wait for nobody. Coal, low cost or not, is plain damn dirty. People today do not remember the coal soot covering everything anywhere it was being used. Google up some dirty coal pics from the early 1900s. I saw a lot of it in Chicago in the 70s still. There is always a better way down the road.
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Unfortunately, Investor Owned Utilities have been moving ahead quite aggressively to end net metering, or selling surplus energy back to the grid. Check local listings. The idea of having to pay customers for energy they have generated privately does not sit well with the investors of these huge utility companies.
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US electric generation from coal is dropping every year as natural gas rises, but is still about the same as nuclear, hydro and wind combined. Those three categories are each about a third of the total - 30% coal, 30% natural gas, 30% nuclear and renewables in combination, 10% miscellaneous.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_power_in_the_United_States#/media/File%3AElectricity_Generation_Sources_for_the_United_States.svg (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_power_in_the_United_States#/media/File%3AElectricity_Generation_Sources_for_the_United_States.svg)
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The lost jobs are a positive thing. Pay everyone more wages and work fewer hours. Share productivity gains with society.
Disagree with that? Then plow a field with a mule and forget about the tractors. The 40 hour work week is 80 years old. Let's go to 35. Everyone gets 5 hours off of free time or add 5 hours of additional overtime to everyone working 40.
LOL, I've been working 60-80 hour work weeks for 30 years. When you find your work rewarding and meaningful, it is not a burden. Healthy living and making the best of your 'off time' is a skill that should be focussed on. People working 40 who think that their quality of life will go up by giving an extra 5 hours will be just as miserable if they don't change. Big brother knowing best can NEVER replace personal responsibility, initiative and outlook.
Productivity/wages/cost of living and the economy is not an open cycle that you can just randomly 'change'. Advances in technology has increasingly brought changes to work loads and jobs, and will continue to do so. Segments of industry/manufacturing/production will always change, people need to change with it.
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Hell , even tech as proven as tankless water heaters still baffles many of us , and yet at least two WG members have installed them after asking me about their efficiency and durability . Dusty
I installed one as well in my other house, major space saver, so far has been flawless. Need to see how long it lasts compared to a traditional water tank, but having "instant on" unlimited hot water was a plus. It's a bit of an investment up front, so I hope it lasts at least twice as long as the traditional water heater.
Solar panels on the roof seem intriguing, but haven't been able to get a high level of confidence from the companies that offer this service here, they seem flaky here at least in my market. I'd love to find a good company that could provide fair quotes, an understanding of how long the panels would last. The "savings" of not having to replace the standard roof as often could be factored in, but it seems like that is small by comparison to the actual cost of the panels. How much does an individual panel weigh by the way?
Seems strange that you cannot "sell back" to the grid any excess power...why is that?
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The first law of thermodynamics, also known as Law of Conservation of Energy, states that energy can neither be created nor destroyed; energy can only be transferred or changed from one form to another
The concept of "green energy" has always puzzled me and the assertion that essentially it just needs harvesting via sola panels, windmills, wave generators, etc. and has no effect on anything
The First Law of Thermodynamics might suggests that could be problematic
This "free energy" generally comes to us in one form or another, so if we gather this energy to do things humans see as important its no longer available to do whatever it was doing before
Discuss
I don't see how your post has anything to do with the viability of cleaner and renewable energy. I don't understand the term "free energy" and how the laws of thermodynamics applies.
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The first law of thermodynamics, also known as Law of Conservation of Energy, states that energy can neither be created nor destroyed; energy can only be transferred or changed from one form to another
The concept of "green energy" has always puzzled me and the assertion that essentially it just needs harvesting via sola panels, windmills, wave generators, etc. and has no effect on anything
The First Law of Thermodynamics might suggests that could be problematic
This "free energy" generally comes to us in one form or another, so if we gather this energy to do things humans see as important its no longer available to do whatever it was doing before
Discuss
Interesting recent study that shows that a high percentage of solar energy is converted into heat which could drastically raise local and global climate temperatures. BLUF.. 15% power 85% heat.... Everything is a tradeoff. My vote is cleaner burning more efficient fossil fuels.
Article
https://weather.com/science/environment/news/solar-energy-contributes-climate-change-study#:~:text=The%20study%2C%20conducted%20by%20climate,urban%20area%20temperatures%20when%20said
Source of article.
https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2843.epdf?referrer_access_tok en=9UpIos5nbkRkNcJLRAE6Q9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0Mhk46FmRPT6xmGxMzCdDQj_TR4jrCkwdeqZFN1QrXjfHoK87yJZqypLgWpzOmK61DNYfeT2hs3rYl59iPKYONBGn_0izI1woInoyvtFs9WQ5P1OaaNW3cnY-LYYJRk6H_EBuxVUw5DaQ-U00hLlUoY-eiBVldc-UBSKD4nB-IvLSLtcTLfkMV0sfgMClr8tqa1JbmWuKg2lsHfY-urVpePIglAB4wKIlgDhSCjewcgNoYbWqaqj03hRI9BTLmBNLGs9yxMB_s7u9sURFWs3EX1&tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com
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I don't see how your post has anything to do with the viability of cleaner and renewable energy. I don't understand the term "free energy" and how the laws of thermodynamics applies.
Perhaps tris is just trying to stimulate debate, AFAIK he's not stated anything that's patently false.
It is perhaps a sideways look at the topic, for example there seems to be some debate whether large windfarms can alter localised weather due to the energy absorbed
Must admit I have some skin in the game on his viewpoint as an engineer (albeit not a very good one) the concept of free energy bothered me too.
That said the forces being tapped are large and our extraction small
I see Bulldog9 has also posted on Solar Panels
If that's Off Topic too then I apologize
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From PJPR01:
Seems strange that you cannot "sell back" to the grid any excess power...why is that?
It varies state to state. The electric Co. point of view is that they want to discourage expansion of solar use by customers because it less income from those customers but they still have to provide the infrastructure. In KS at least one company had requested to charge a higher rate to customers with solar, but was denied.
GliderJohn
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I installed a tankless water heater about 8-10 years ago, had one problem soon after installation with the mother board and it was replaced under warranty but no problems since that time. I didn't really notice any savings in gas usage but it saved space in our utility room. Getting hot water to each source took more time until I re-plumbed the entire house with Pex and a manifold system which has less bleed off as it specific draws the hot water to each hot water home run.
I have considered installing the solar panels myself but the local permitting issues along with the architectural review board approval process is a pain in the a@ss. And I wouldn't do it unless I had a new metal roof installed.
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I'm still waiting for the flying cars everyone was predicting 50 years ago. We were all supposed to have them by now!
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From PJPR01:It varies state to state. The electric Co. point of view is that they want to discourage expansion of solar use by customers because it less income from those customers but they still have to provide the infrastructure. In KS at least one company had requested to charge a higher rate to customers with solar, but was denied.
GliderJohn
Got it....thanks John. :thumb: :thumb:
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Basically everything man does has an unintended negative impact on something or someone. Once in a while there is also an unintended positive impact.
When the negative impact is realized it is sometimes irreversible, and sometimes accepted because the intended benefit outweighs the unintended negative.
In rare cases the negative impact is so severe that a corrective action is pursued with the hopes of creating a new intended benefit to correct the unintended impact with hopes of not creating a new unintended impact.
And so the cycle continues.
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I don't see how your post has anything to do with the viability of cleaner and renewable energy. I don't understand the term "free energy" and how the laws of thermodynamics applies.
Because the energy to power all the electric cars has to come from somewhere.
Fossil fuels and Nuclear generated electricity is frowned upon and it strikes me that harvesting other forms of energy might problematic in the long term for reasons that we have no understanding of at the moment
You don't get owt for nowt
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Porsche says new fuel means that ICE won't go away.
"In a recent interview with Evo magazine, Porsche VP of Motorsport and GT cars, Dr. Frank Walliser, says that synthetic fuels, also called eFuels, can reduce the carbon dioxide emissions of existing ICE cars by as much as 85 percent. And, he says, when you account for the wheel-to-well impact of manufacturing the EV, it's a wash.
"Synthetic fuels are made by extracting hydrogen via renewable energy, and capturing it liquid form with carbon dioxide. Compared to pump fuel, eFuels emit fewer particulates and nitrogen oxide as well. That's because, as Walliser explains, they are composed of eight to 10 ingredients while the dead plants we mine contain 30 to 40, many of which are simply burned and emitted as pollution in the process."
https://www.yahoo.com/autos/porsche-says-synthetic-fuel-internal-163000826.html