Predictions:electric cars

[slowmover]

1. Auto repair shops will disappear...

2. A gas/diesel engine has 20,000 individual parts... An electrical motor has 20... Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are repaired only by dealers... It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric motor...


3. Faulty electric motors are NOT repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with ROBOTS...

4. Your electric motor malfunction light goes on... so you drive up to what looks like a car wash, and your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee... Then your car comes out on the other side with a new electric motor or component...

5. Gas stations will go away...

6. Street corners will have meters that dispense electricity... Companies will install electrical recharging stations... in fact, they've already started in the developed world...

7. Smart major auto manufacturers have already designated money to start building new plants that build ONLY electric cars...

8 � The "Coal Industries" will go away... Gasoline/oil companies will go away... Drilling for oil will stop... So say goodbye to OPEC... The Middle East is in trouble...

9. Homes will produce and store more electrical energy during the day than they use... It will be sold back to "The Grid"... The Grid will store and dispense it, to the industries that are high electricity users. Has anybody seen the Tesla roof?

10. A baby of today will only see "personal cars" in museums. The FUTURE is approaching faster than most of us can even handle...

11. In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide... Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt... Who would have thought of that ever happening?

12. What happened to Kodak and Polaroid will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years ... and most people don't even see it coming...

13. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later, you would never take pictures on film again? With today's smartphones, who even has a camera these days?

14. Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975... The first ones only had 10,000 pixels but followed Moore's law... As with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment in the beginning ... before it became superior and mainstream in only a few short years...

15. It will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence (AI), health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs...

16. Forget the book, "Future Shock," welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution...

17. Software has disrupted and will continue to disrupt most traditional industries... (in the next 5 to 10 years...

18. UBER, is just a software tool (they don't own any cars), and are now the biggest taxi company in the world... (Ask any taxi driver if they saw that coming...

19. AIR-BnB is now the biggest hotel company in the world .. (they don't own any properties)... Ask Hilton Hotels or the Marriott if they saw that coming...

20. Artificial Intelligence (AI): Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world... This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world... (10 years earlier than expected)...

21. In the USA, young lawyers already don't get jobs (because of IBM's WATSON)... you can get legal advice within a few seconds so for the basic stuff... with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.. So, if you're studying law, THINK AGAIN... There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, what a thought and only omniscient specialists will remain...

22. WATSON already helps nurses diagnosing cancer... it's 4-times more accurate and many times faster than human nurses...

23. Facebook now has a 'face recognition' software that can recognize faces better than humans... In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans...

24. Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars were already here... In the next few years, the entire auto industry will start to be disrupted... You won't want to own a car any more as you will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination...

25. You will not need to park it, you will pay only for the 'driven distance' and you can be productive while driving. The very young children of today will never get a driver's license and they will never own a car...

26. This will change our cities because we will need 90% to 95% fewer cars... We can transform former parking spaces into green city parks...

27. About 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents (worldwide). That includes distracted or drunk drivers... We currently have one accident every 60,000 miles driven... However with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in about 6 million miles... That will save a million plus lives, worldwide each year...

28. Most traditional car companies will doubtless become bankrupt.. They will try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car ... while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels...

29. Look at what Volvo is doing right now... no more internal combustion engines in their vehicles starting this year with the 2020 models... They are using all-electric or hybrid only (with the intent of phasing out hybrid models in the not too distant future)...

30. Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla... Look at all the companies offering all-electric vehicles... That was unheard of, only a few years ago...

31. Insurance companies will have massive trouble too... because, without accidents, the costs of insurance will become cheaper... Their car insurance business model will disappear...

32. Real estate will change... Because if you can work while you commute, or you can work from your home... people will abandon their towers to move far away to more beautiful and affordable properties.

33. Electric cars will become mainstream by about 2030... Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run ONLY on electricity...

34. Cities will have much cleaner air...

35. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean, eventually free...

36. Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years... but you can now see the burgeoning impact... and it's just starting to get ramped up...

37. Fossil energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid... to prevent competition from home solar installations... but that simply cannot continue... Technology will take care of that strategy in the not too distant future...

38. Health: The Tricorder X, price will be announced this year... There are companies who will build a medical device called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, a sample of your blood, then you breathe into it... It then analyzes 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease.. There are dozens of phone apps out there right now for health...

WELCOME TO TOMORROW. To think, I used to complain about my parents and grandparents being "out of it."

 

 

[Ncdan]

Ok, is about all’s left to say about that:)

[LowRyter]

yes

[Seventy One]

"Free" electricity?

I'd like to see the math on that one.

[wymple]

I don't doubt any of that, but not real sure of the timelines. People are still very resistant to change. We shall see.

[Rough Edge racing]

OP forgot to mention the current materials needed for batteries and motors come from places  that are troublesome. The mining operations create huge piles of spoils...This has to change and probably will over time... Meanwhile ICE technology is not stagnant so don'y bury it just yeat...And the recent mess in Texas demonstrates that the electrical distribution can be problematic .
 I have zero interest in powerplants that aren't vibrating oily contraptions..... Forunately I will be long gone by the time electic vehicle are common..

[lucian]

Imagine what our Guzzis will be worth then!!!!!!!! 

[twowheeladdict]

"Free" electricity?

I'd like to see the math on that one.

Me too.  Maybe to certain individuals once they have recouped or their grandchildren recouped the cost and maintenance of their personal solar farm. 

Plus, there are the costs of maintaining power generation and distribution. 

[twowheeladdict]

OP forgot to mention the current materials needed for batteries and motors come from places  that are troublesome. The mining operations create huge piles of spoils...This has to change and probably will over time... Meanwhile ICE technology is not stagnant so don'y bury it just yeat...And the recent mess in Texas demonstrates that the electrical distribution can be problematic .
 I have zero interest in powerplants that aren't vibrating oily contraptions..... Forunately I will be long gone by the time electic vehicle are common..

My wife was very nervous when it was her turn to drive the Bolt EV.  Especially the 1 pedal driving.  She just couldn't wrap her brain around it.  Bless her heart, I told here the turn signal was still on from when I pulled over for us to switch seats and she forgot where the turn signal switch was.  Now that is nervous.

At MSRP, I'm not a buyer.  At the price I am hoping to buy one for, I will give it a try. 

[kingoffleece]

Rough Edge is dead nuts on.  Not to get political but do a bit of digging (pardon the pun) about what REALLY happens in the procurement of the raw materials needed for battery production.  The collateral damage is MIND BLOWING.

[Canuck750]

Thomas Friedman - author - "Thankyou for being late"

https://www.shortform.com/B/summary/thank-you-for-being-late-summary-thomas-l-friedman?gclid=CjwKCAiAg8OBBhA8EiwAlKw3khsrUlZ-rGs3q81fxTol128ixfqZ9yep0iPTQC4XEDe4TxlN0XAUIhoCEZ0QAvD_BwE

This is a great read, and I found it quite unnerving, the explanation of the current trend in computing power, storage and retrieval coupled to exponential advancements in software is staggering. I retired last year after 40 years in the architectural design business and I thought the computing power / software changes I witnessed in the past 20 years was amazing, what is happening now is mind blowing. As a mid size practice we saw our output double every other year, much more productivity with less people and far greater accuracy. The new design software coupled to contractor estimating and scheduling, owner / operator interface, budgeting and facility maintenance has changed the entire design and construction industry.
Just one example.
We are just at the begining.

[Chuck in Indiana]

We are just at the begining.

this

[kirby1923]

Thomas Friedman - author - "Thankyou for being late"

https://www.shortform.com/B/summary/thank-you-for-being-late-summary-thomas-l-friedman?gclid=CjwKCAiAg8OBBhA8EiwAlKw3khsrUlZ-rGs3q81fxTol128ixfqZ9yep0iPTQC4XEDe4TxlN0XAUIhoCEZ0QAvD_BwE

This is a great read, and I found it quite unnerving, the explanation of the current trend in computing power, storage and retrieval coupled to exponential advancements in software is staggering. I retired last year after 40 years in the architectural design business and I thought the computing power / software changes I witnessed in the past 20 years was amazing, what is happening now is mind blowing. As a mid size practice we saw our output double every other year, much more productivity with less people and far greater accuracy. The new design software coupled to contractor estimating and scheduling, owner / operator interface, budgeting and facility maintenance has changed the entire design and construction industry.
Just one example.
We are just at the begining.

It is mind bending for sure.

My company in the states that is developing a new engine is using a company in NV that can "print" casting patterns/tools
They are a total loss but you just print some more while you sleeping at home!

Never thought I'd live to see this done.

:-)

[LowRyter]

Me too.  Maybe to certain individuals once they have recouped or their grandchildren recouped the cost and maintenance of their personal solar farm. 

Plus, there are the costs of maintaining power generation and distribution.

All true but not a significant cost for EV ownership.  Plug it in at night when there is excess power in the grid.  Cost wise, it's better than 100 mpg.  And this cost is at the consumer level, not the producer, whether solar or coal (as you mention), which of course that's all passed down to the consumer + profit.

[LowRyter]

Thomas Friedman - author - "Thankyou for being late"

https://www.shortform.com/B/summary/thank-you-for-being-late-summary-thomas-l-friedman?gclid=CjwKCAiAg8OBBhA8EiwAlKw3khsrUlZ-rGs3q81fxTol128ixfqZ9yep0iPTQC4XEDe4TxlN0XAUIhoCEZ0QAvD_BwE

This is a great read, and I found it quite unnerving, the explanation of the current trend in computing power, storage and retrieval coupled to exponential advancements in software is staggering. I retired last year after 40 years in the architectural design business and I thought the computing power / software changes I witnessed in the past 20 years was amazing, what is happening now is mind blowing. As a mid size practice we saw our output double every other year, much more productivity with less people and far greater accuracy. The new design software coupled to contractor estimating and scheduling, owner / operator interface, budgeting and facility maintenance has changed the entire design and construction industry.
Just one example.
We are just at the begining.

My youngest is working as manufacturing engineer.  He's a wiz with Solidworks.   He was between jobs for nearly a year and now head hunters are sending him offers.  So he's trying to figure if he wants to move to a new job or stay where he's at.  Those engineers like to see project through, so I'm not sure he'll move for more money.  His degree is biomedical engineering. 

[twowheeladdict]

Rough Edge is dead nuts on.  Not to get political but do a bit of digging (pardon the pun) about what REALLY happens in the procurement of the raw materials needed for battery production.  The collateral damage is MIND BLOWING.

I have no pretenses about "Green Energy"  Everything comes with a cost and trade-offs. 

Itchy Boots came across a rural area in one South American country where they locals were going to lose their livelihood because Lithium was discovered under the dry salt lake bed where they harvested salt. 

[Antietam Classic Cycle]

OP forgot to mention the current materials needed for batteries and motors come from places  that are troublesome. The mining operations create huge piles of spoils...This has to change and probably will over time... Meanwhile ICE technology is not stagnant so don'y bury it just yeat...And the recent mess in Texas demonstrates that the electrical distribution can be problematic .
 I have zero interest in powerplants that aren't vibrating oily contraptions..... Forunately I will be long gone by the time electic vehicle are common..

 

[Canuck750]

My youngest is working as manufacturing engineer.  He's a wiz with Solidworks.   He was between jobs for nearly a year and now head hunters are sending him offers.  So he's trying to figure if he wants to move to a new job or stay where he's at.  Those engineers like to see project through, so I'm not sure he'll move for more money.  His degree is biomedical engineering.

I would recommend not moving for money, I reviewed a lot of resumes in my time and candidates who showed a lot of movement were not considered seriously. Showing complete project completion is big plus for future opportunities.

[Johncolleary]

The Grid.  Interesting read about the electrical Grid and how the Renewable energy complicates things.

https://www.amazon.com/Grid-Fraying-Between-Americans-Energy-ebook/dp/B01DM9Q6CQ/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=The+grid&qid=1613900399&sr=8-1

[oldbike54]

 Fellas , stay away from the politics of this .

 Dusty

[Perazzimx14]

Certainly a lot of 1st world predictions.



My prediction:

1. I will buy and use ICE powered cars, trucks and motorcycles until I have no other choice.

2. Even if forced to use E-powered cars, trucks or motorcycles I will always prefer the ICE over electric.

[DougG]

Hi All,                                                                                                               2-21-21

ICE's will probably be here for another 3 decades in one form or another.  But, eventually the momentum of progress will win out over the inertia of present technologies and modes.  It always does.  Once again, we can be on the bus or running behind it.   

Be well, stay well,
DougG

P.S. Where there's a market...there's a way.

[Arctic Fox]

"Free" electricity?

I'd like to see the math on that one.

Partly bit like this (single family houses in Finland)? Changing 12v electricity to normal 230V via suitable inverter.














My next car might be BMW i3 as there starts to be enough of those in 2. hand markets. Could easily cover more than 90% of my needs of car.

[twowheeladdict]

Certainly a lot of 1st world predictions.



My prediction:

1. I will buy and use ICE powered cars, trucks and motorcycles until I have no other choice.

2. Even if forced to use E-powered cars, trucks or motorcycles I will always prefer the ICE over electric.

Actually, I hope just enough people buy EVs to keep them viable, without diminishing our ICE support infrastructure.  I plan to have at least one ICE Truck, and motorcycle at all times to cover all scenarios. 

At the price I will hopefully buy an EV for, it makes a lot of sense for my needs in a vehicle to run errands, appointments, visits, etc.  The reduced maintenance, The convenience, the recurring costs of ownership.  etc.

My brain says an EV is a no brainer at the price I am hoping to pay.  Where I live Electricity costs are regulated and stable.  We have Hydro and Nuclear plants supplying our electricity. 

Even if you have no interest in owning one, I would recommend test driving one, and test riding a Zero or Livewire, unless of course you are afraid you might enjoy it. 

Our Buick Encore isolates you from the road so much that you barely know the engine is on at idle and the predominant sound when getting on it is the turbo whine.  Reviewers have negative comments about the sound the Mazda makes when getting on the gas.  You definitely know it is working.

The EV just scoots along and wind noise is the predominant noise you hear while driving. 

[twowheeladdict]

Partly bit like this (single family houses in Finland)? Changing 12v electricity to normal 230V via suitable inverter.














My next car might be BMW i3 as there starts to be enough of those in 2. hand markets. Could easily cover more than 90% of my needs of car.

But, what were the costs to install all that on the houses?  How many years before the break even point compared to buying electricity from the grid?  Are they still required to be on the grid which has a cost associated with it even if they allow two way movement of the meter?

I've been watching videos on Solar roof systems and depending on where you live it can be as long as 30 years to break even.  The difference though is if the grid goes down, you don't.

My son in New Zealand owns two 10 year old or older Prius cars he bought used, and the house he is building is going to be entirely off-grid.  He is going to have solar, and a water turbine for power, and a well for water, plus a natural septic system. 

Since he is building on fresh land, it makes sense to go this route based on the costs and government control over the people. 

[DougG]

Hi Slowmover,                                                                                   2-21-21

I think you are spot on with most of your predictions.  I'll just add:

1) meatless meat and finless fish...we're already well on the way.

2) we'll be eating more bugs...we already eat a certain amount (as allowed by FDA), there are now factories raising them solely for human consumption.

3) biofuels will largely replace dino fuels.  (Once again, it's already happening).

4) we'll see more memory metals in vehicles - if they bend, they can be heated or electrified back into their original form.

Be well, stay well,
DougG

P.S.  I can't wait for transparent aluminum (a la Star Trek)...already in the labs.

[Milosh]

Predictions about the future are...

...Somebody needs to read some Kevin Cameron.

https://www.cycleworld.com/story/bikes/what-if-all-automobiles-never-mind-motorcycles-were-electric/

https://www.cycleworld.com/basics-of-vehicle-efficiency-kevin-cameron-top-dead-center/

https://www.cycleworld.com/story/blogs/ask-kevin/the-persistence-of-the-piston-engine/

[dguzzi]

   So my idea of buffalo fins might really be a thing!!

[Wayne Orwig]

I heard the same thing at the RC airplane club some time ago. Now electric power is the overwhelming, predominate power source. There are very few still flying with ICE powered models, and even they have a collection of battery powered models.

I was flying electric powered RC 30 years ago. Using bulky nicad batteries.

RC is a bad example though. They only need power for a few minutes. And they have a fast charge source nearby, the lead acid battery in the ICE powered car nearby.

But it is a lot better than dealing with the alcohol fuel, glow plugs, and noise. We lost a lot of flying sites due to 2 cycle noise. I miss the smell of castor oil burning though. 

[DougG]

Hi All,                                                               2-21-21

Germany, Sweden, Denmark and several other northern latitude countries use a combination of solar/wind (along with other renewables), very effectively.  It gets pretty cold in those places...what do they know that we don't?

Be well, stay well,
DougG

P.S.  I lived in Iowa for a few years...beautiful solar and wind farms...very cold winters.