Project Live Wire - Electric Harley Davidson merged threadfest

[oldbike54]

My great grandmother in West Texas never took a ride in one of those new fangled death traps. She believed that God didn't intend the human critter to move any faster than it could run...(Or fly if he didn't have feathers.)

:-)

  My grandfather the railroad man thought cars were nonsense , we should all travel by train . Of course that did lead to some nice long train rides as a kid , maybe he was right 

 Dusty

[Tusayan]

You are only observing the market here in the US , worldwide Tesla delivered over 95,000 new vehicles during the last reported quarter .

 As for depreciation , have you been paying attention , any new vehicle's value drops like a rock now once it has left the dealership . Even the once vaunted HD resale value has disappeared .

 Dusty

I have a house in Europe and spend time there, so I’m familiar with overseas markets.  What is happening in Europe is tax avoidance as consumer motivation.  Very similar to the Diesel situation there 15 years ago.  Energy security is a big issue in Europe, and so the basic economics tend to be secondary.  Less true elsewhere in the world, including in North America. Tesla has about 0.1% of the world car market, 1/20 of their US market share.  So while some relatively small European markets are relatively heavy into electric cars, the world is not.

The little Fiat electric 500s depreciate 60% in a couple of years in the US as a result of low market demand.

https://usedfirst.com/cars/fiat/500e/

[Lannis]

But define "task". Unless you live in an urban area or it is used for recreational purposes  the task can't be accomplished for the vast majority of people traveling by over the road. vehicles.

Totally unusable for my required "tasks"...

And 'till the battery tech is develop a BUNCH more is almost fantasy and considering all the trade offs to produce the mechanisms that make it possible at all as in manufacturing and the fact the batteries of today don't last for very many cycles considering the investment  of a high end automobile or a scoot, depreciating very fast as the "new models show up.

Might be a business opportunity for somebody "recycling batteries and cars/motos. Might be big.

Not anywhere near ready for prime time..\\ for the masses.

Might as well give it up, mon ami.      You're using science, facts, economics, historical data, and experience to make your case.

No way that can stand up to the brilliancy and freshness of simple mindless optimism, pseudo-science, hope, cliches like "change is inevitable" and "they said man would never fly", added to the fact that you're old and therefore must step aside and let the young people learn all over again what we spent a lifetime learning ...   

Lannis

[oldbike54]

 ^^^Huh ?

 Dusty

[Lannis]

^^^Huh ?

 Dusty

Must have been for someone else ... they'll understand ....

[Darren Williams]

Might as well give it up, mon ami.      You're using science, facts, economics, historical data, and experience to make your case.

No way that can stand up to the brilliancy and freshness of simple mindless optimism, pseudo-science, hope, cliches like "change is inevitable" and "they said man would never fly", added to the fact that you're old and therefore must step aside and let the young people learn all over again what we spent a lifetime learning ...   

Lannis

In a social media world where facts don't matter, people will believe what they are told and conditioned to believe. 

While they don't fit "my" needs, they do fit a great number of peoples needs. And if social engineering pushes the EV's, they will become popular. They are economical to operate, especially in dense metro traffic, just not buy and dispose of, yet. Remember, where there is a vacuum, technology will advance exponentially.

[Lannis]

While they don't fit "my" needs, they do fit a great number of peoples needs. And if social engineering pushes the EV's, they will become popular. They are economical to operate, especially in dense metro traffic, just not buy and dispose of, yet. Remember, where there is a vacuum, technology will advance exponentially.

"And if ..."   I agree.   We'll have to see.

"Dense metro traffic ...."  Yep, they're part of the overall solution of doing something about the congestion in cities.   

"Just not to buy and dispose of yet."   That ain't chopped liver.   113 years, remember.

"Technology will advance exponentially".    Hasn't done much for a cure for cancer yet; the exponent can't be much over 1.00 sometimes.

Lannis

[bad Chad]

Many cancers are indeed curable, 25 years ago they weren’t.   Cancer survivor rates are dramatically higher than they were 50 years ago.   It’s been a agonizingly slow rise, and there remains a long way to go, cancer is a scourge against humanity but progress is being made.

[Lannis]

Many cancers are indeed curable, 25 years ago they weren’t.   Cancer survivor rates are dramatically higher than they were 50 years ago.   It’s been a agonizingly slow rise, and there remains a long way to go, cancer is a scourge against humanity but progress is being made.

True.  But "exponentially" has a bit of a different meaning, sort of the opposite of "agonizingly slow".   

Growth is computer speed, processing power, and storage density, now THAT'S exponential growth ....   

Lannis

[alanp]

But define "task". Unless you live in an urban area or it is used for recreational purposes  the task can't be accomplished for the vast majority of people traveling by over the road. vehicles.

Totally unusable for my required "tasks"...

And 'till the battery tech is develop a BUNCH more is almost fantasy and considering all the trade offs to produce the mechanisms that make it possible at all as in manufacturing and the fact the batteries of today don't last for very many cycles considering the investment  of a high end automobile or a scoot, depreciating very fast as the "new models show up.

Might be a business opportunity for somebody "recycling batteries and cars/motos. Might be big.

Not anywhere near ready for prime time..\\ for the masses.

I define task as vehicle distance travelled per unit of energy consumed.  Electric vehicles excel at this.  And while they may not be of any use to you, electric vehicles are actually more than adequate for the vast majority of non-commercial vehicular travel in the US.  The majority of miles traveled are for a round trip of under 30 miles or so, and the vast majority of that is in urban areas.   

[oldbike54]

 No one inside of the real battery or E business ever says the tech increases exponentially , not even sure why someone say that . Everything I have read about this indicates the incremental gains add up to a doubling of storage capacity per kilogram occurring on a 7 year scale . The last cordless power tool I purchased bears this out , 18V with a charge hold time equal to the stuff from 14 years ago , with a battery 1/4 the size of the same tool from 14 years ago . . There is no such thing as a breakthrough , the gains happen slowly with a lot of work involved .

 Dusty

[LowRyter]

Is the point where we talk about the holographic universe?

[kirby1923]

I define task as vehicle distance travelled per unit of energy consumed.  Electric vehicles excel at this.  And while they may not be of any use to you, electric vehicles are actually more than adequate for the vast majority of non-commercial vehicular travel in the US.  The majority of miles traveled are for a round trip of under 30 miles or so, and the vast majority of that is in urban areas.

Wow, pretty clinical!

I definitely don't define task in that manner, for me its transportation and traveling the open road w/no thought what so ever of units of anything.

Also I have never been accused of being part of the majority of anything.
:-)

So happy ZZZZ motoring

[PJPR01]

Chew on this bit of data.  Quite an interesting data point for those who think EV and Tesla is not encroaching on the base.  Pretty sure no one here would have made this prediction 8 years ago...




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[kirby1923]

Chew on this bit of data.  Quite an interesting data point for those who think EV and Tesla is not encroaching on the base.  Pretty sure no one here would have made this prediction 8 years ago...











I chew my nails but..


What is the source of that info, (please don't say google). Your investment monthly?

Just curious.

:-)

[PrajwalKale]

I certain electric bicycles are a structuring force. In 10 years I wouldn't be astounded to see electric bicycles making up 20% or a greater amount of the new bicycle advertise.

[rocker59]

Chew on this bit of data.  Quite an interesting data point for those who think EV and Tesla is not encroaching on the base.  Pretty sure no one here would have made this prediction 8 years ago...






Must be a regional component.  While there are a few Teslas around in my metro, Mercedes-Benzes are about as common as Toyotas!

[oldbike54]

Must be a regional component.  While there are a few Teslas around in my metro, Mercedes-Benzes are about as common as Toyotas!

 It could be , for some reason I see lots of Teslas in the OKC area , but haven't ever noticed one here , which is odd because we have everything from a Maserati daily driver to the occasional 500 Fiat . Of course now that I've mentioned the dearth of Teslas here , four will drive down the street in front of the house today 

 Dusty

[Tusayan]

Chew on this bit of data.  Quite an interesting data point for those who think EV and Tesla is not encroaching on the base.  Pretty sure no one here would have made this prediction 8 years ago...

Tesla, Mercedes and BMW combined are a very small fraction of the US auto market - seems to be less 5% in total.   

[bad Chad]

Seems like I see lots of Tesla’s here in central IL.   According to the local paper Tesla is going to open a sales/service store in Normal.

[PJPR01]

Tesla, Mercedes and BMW combined are a very small fraction of the US auto market - seems to be less 5% in total.

Which is perfectly fine for today's stats.  5% is not a negative assessment.

Looking out over the horizon, even in 10 years as the EV market grows, Tesla may have 20% of the total EV market, which means other vendors see the likelihood and viability of this alternative mode of transportation.

Charging stations are growing significantly as well...so there is a growing network for those who do venture beyond 100-300 miles away from home.

At the end of the day, as EV transport, be it car or motorcycle becomes more acceptable or interesting, that's fine...it doesn't force unless mandated those who like IC to abandon their existing vehicles.

[Mayor_of_BBQ]

I can't fathom the argument that EV's aren't up to the 'task' of transporting a majority of people yet, when the average american driver moves their car less than 40mi a day, and even that 39.xx/mi figure is artificially elevated by a small proportion of "super commuters".

For a family vehicle, EV's already have the capability to serve something like 75% of drivers and the range times will only get longer and the charge times will continue to drop. Sure, they can't take you on a many hundred mile trek... but it wont be long before battery swap stations, improved charging tech, and possibly infrastructure-integrated charging tech catch up.

Avg EV now has over 100mi range (top of the line tesla is 250mi)...  EVEN if you have to drive, say 80mi to work.... you can charge it for 8hrs while you are working before your return trip home.  EV's that take longer than 5hrs to charge are now rare as hen's teeth.

Most of the people complaining that EV tech isn't going to work seem to be the same people who think they need an F-250 superduty to drive 3mi to WalMart for their groceries.

[Lannis]

I can't fathom the argument that EV's aren't up to the 'task' of transporting a majority of people yet, when the average american driver moves their car less than 40mi a day, and even that 39.xx/mi figure is artificially elevated by a small proportion of "super commuters".

Really?  Is that all that people drive?

For a family vehicle, EV's already have the capability to serve something like 75% of drivers ....

Really?   Where'd that number come from?

and the range times will only get longer and the charge times will continue to drop. Sure, they can't take you on a many hundred mile trek... but it wont be long before battery swap stations, improved charging tech, and possibly infrastructure-integrated charging tech catch up.

Really?  How long is "won't be long"?   I've never seen one.

Avg EV now has over 100mi range (top of the line tesla is 250mi)...  EVEN if you have to drive, say 80mi to work.... you can charge it for 8hrs while you are working before your return trip home. 

Charging stations for every employee at every workplace?   Wow!   When will that happen?

Most of the people complaining that EV tech isn't going to work seem to be the same people who think they need an F-250 superduty to drive 3mi to WalMart for their groceries.

Are they really?  I'd heard that they were mostly old people shaking their sticks to get these EVs out of their yard.   

Lannis

[oldbike54]

 It's funny , we built an entire infrastructure to support gasoline burners , and yet somehow we can't build an infrastructure to support E vehicles 

 Dusty

[PJPR01]

It's funny , we built an entire infrastructure to support gasoline burners , and yet somehow we can't build an infrastructure to support E vehicles 

 Dusty

. Oh but we can...and it’s well underway.  Here’s a map of charging stations across the US.  Looks like it’s growing nicely.

[Lannis]

. Oh but we can...and it’s well underway.  Here’s a map of charging stations across the US.  Looks like it’s growing nicely.

Looks like it's got a ways to go.   Within 50 miles of me, I'll estimate that there are 1000 gasoline filling stations where I can put 600 miles of range in my car in 2 minutes.   In that same area, this map shows that there is MAYBE 1 charging station that can put 150 miles of range into my car in .... well, I haven't got that much time to wait.   Why isn't the infrastructure enhancement being made at a furious pace right now, to change that 1-to-10,000 ratio of charging/fueling stations?   You'll have to ask the people with money to invest in it to harvest these enormous returns; for some reason, they don't seem to believe that the opportunity is there ... ?

Also, it seems to many that we are on the cusp of a change in transportation that is equivalent to the change from horses to automobiles in the next 20 years or so.   If anyone knew back in 1910 what was going to happen with petroleum and automobiles (like maybe one of us was transported in time back to those days with a $20 Morgan gold piece in our pocket), we would simply invest a modest amount in automobile and oil companies, and be a millionaire in a few years, like many people actually did.    Is anyone, any significant number of people, making those investments in the equivalent areas today?    Looks to me like there should be some ordinary people becoming multi-millionaires soon .... and quite a few from right here on the WG list!

But alas ....

Lannis

[Testarossa]

Electricity is available everywhere. All you need to recharge an EV is a 220v feed -- which is already built into every home and office in the civilized world. The cost to wire in a parking spot will soon be less than the cost of a decent home water heater. It will happen because private enterprise will see a chance to buy electricity at 8c/kWh and retail it at 20 or 40c.

In 1905 the drive-in gas station didn't exist. Chemical companies, farmers and motorists bought fuel by the barrel from about 3500 Standard Oil outlets around the country, and you could buy tins of gasoline at drug stores and hardware stores. Less than 10% of gas sold this way was used in registered on-road vehicles. The first urban gas station was started as a personal enterprise by a Standard Oil executive, in Seattle, in 1907. Anybody and everybody then invested in local gas pumps and by 1925 there were more than 200,000 stations. Until the OPEC embargo in 1973 we had way more gas stations than the auto fleet needed -- it peaked in 1969 at about 236,000 stations. No wonder there were price wars between stations at the same intersection. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in 2018 there were only 107,000 filling stations in the U.S. Lesson here is that where a market exists an infrastructure can grow fast and way overshoot the mark.

Where the EV electricity will come from is another very interesting question. It will certainly place new demands on natural gas, nuclear, hydro and newer forms of central generation, and will also swell the market for local solar with storage (buy power when it's cheapest, use it whenever it makes sense). Most of the charging will be done at home and at work when the vehicles can be parked for an hour or more, or at shopping malls etc.

I'm not putting my own money in any of this -- all these investments will be speculative and probably volatile. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it is naive to search for reasons that it can't happen.

[alanp]

Really?  Is that all that people drive

Yep.  If you look at used car values, average mileage has been considered right at 12,000 miles per year for a long time.  40 miles per day, 300 days a year, 12,000 miles.  40 is the right number.

[Lannis]

Electricity is available everywhere. All you need to recharge an EV is a 220v feed -- which is already built into every home and office in the civilized world. The cost to wire in a parking spot will soon be less than the cost of a decent home air conditioner. It will happen because private enterprise will see a chance to buy electricity at 8c/kWh and retail it at 20 or 40c.

Will they?   When?  Anytime soon?  Again, follow the money - if people with billions aren't making this happen, you have to ask "Why"?

In 1905 the drive-in gas station didn't exist. Chemical companies, farmers and motorists bought fuel by the barrel from about 3500 Standard Oil outlets around the country, and you could buy tins of gasoline at drug stores and hardware stores. Less than 10% of gas sold this way was used in registered on-road vehicles. The first urban gas station was started as a personal enterprise by a Standard Oil executive, in Seattle, in 1907. Anybody and everybody then invested in local gas pumps and by 1925 there were more than 200,000 stations. Until the OPEC embargo in 1973 we had way more gas stations than the auto fleet needed -- it peaked in 1969 at about 236,000 stations. No wonder there were price wars between stations at the same intersection. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in 2018 there were only 107,000 filling stations in the U.S. Lesson here is that where a market exists an infrastructure can grow fast and way overshoot the mark.

I agree with your history and time-spans.   That's only 18 years from "nothing" to "massive investement in trucks, refineries, pipelines, and tanks".    Where's electric on that timeline?   Looks like we've already gotten started, so there shouldn't be much time left to finish it up ...

I'm not putting my own money in any of this -- all these investments will be speculative and probably volatile. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it is naive to search for reasons that it can't happen.

How can it be speculative and volatile if it's real?   "Standard Oil" was never a speculative or volatile investment - we're talking about investing in something with more impact than Esso or AT&T or General Motors or Microsoft or Apple.    None of those were bad investments when they cranked up, nor for the next 40 - 80 years.   

Me personal, I'm not searching for reasons it can't happen - I'm doing the same as everyone else.  I'm taking history, past examples, current status, and human nature, and projecting what's going to happen in the future based on those.   Just because some of us come to different predictions about the future, based on exactly the same history and current status, doesn't make anyone "naive".

Lannis

[Mayor_of_BBQ]

Really?  Is that all that people drive?

Really?   Where'd that number come from?


Really?  How long is "won't be long"?   I've never seen one.

Charging stations for every employee at every workplace?   Wow!   When will that happen?

Are they really?  I'd heard that they were mostly old people shaking their sticks to get these EVs out of their yard.   

Lannis

Yes, the avg american drives under 40mi a day. The figure in 2015 was 13,474 miles per year