VW, now THAT is a major problem.

[Lannis]

Given this incident, I don't think it's much of a stretch to think that the proprietary software in electronic voting machines may be similarly corrupted.

I think it's a given.   Now that people can vote by mail or Internet, and electronic voting machines can be jiggered, it's going to get to be where "elections" aren't worth much .... and some people want it that way.

Sort of like over the past 20 years as people have started dealing with the Internet.    You have to spend as much time writing software to protect against scams as you do writing software to do your business .... When I got paper mail, .1% of them were scams.    When I get Email, 50% of them are scams ....

VW couldn't have done this on a 1967 Type 1 ...

Lannis

[Kev m]

That isn't what I said. I said that I don't think that the problem for current owners and loss of resale value will be as drastic as Jas67 described.

Ahhh, my misunderstanding, sorry.

No opinion on resale.

I think it could go either way.

The ones that escape having to be reflashed (if the reflash makes such a big difference in economy) might become more desired/more expensive.

Of course, if the whole US diesel market (which was just  beginning to grow) takes a hit, then it could be bad overall.

Around here diesel has been as much as $1 more (close to double) regular octane gas for a year or two (though a search this morning shows more like only $0.30-0.50 more right now).

[sib]

.... When I got paper mail, .1% of them were scams.    When I get Email, 50% of them are scams ....

My experience is different.  On the internet, most of the spam email I get automatically goes into my trash file, never to be seen and I don't have to bother with it or manually sort it.  With paper mail, 80% or more of mine is "std rate", meaning spam, charity solicitations, ads, etc.  I do have to manually sort it, but anything that doesn't have first class postage goes directly into the recycle bin without even being opened.

[Kev m]

My experience is different.  On the internet, most of the spam email I get automatically goes into my trash file, never to be seen and I don't have to bother with it or manually sort it.  With paper mail, 80% or more of mine is "std rate", meaning spam, charity solicitations, ads, etc.  I do have to manually sort it, but anything that isn't first class postage goes directly into the recycle bin without even being opened.

That's a good point. I often get the mail at the curb, and stop at the recycling pail on the way up the driveway. Yesterday not a single piece (of the dozen) made it to the HOUSE. That's typical.

I think almost every one of our bills and most of the important stuff all comes electronically now. It's rare that something arrives in the mail that matters. Except yesterday the parts I ordered to switch the refrigerator door from left opening to right opening arrived, that was cool.   

[jas67]

That isn't what I said. I said that I don't think that the problem for current owners and loss of resale value will be as drastic as Jas67 described.

-AJ

-

Most, if not all, people who chose to purchase a VW Diesel made that choice based on fuel economy.   When I bought our two, I certainly did.    Prices on used ones were MUCH higher than same model and similarly optioned gas powered ones, that difference being actually MORE than additional cost of the diesel option on a NEW one, as much as $4-5k.     The used prices were so high that, at least for me, it didn't even make sense to buy used, as for less than $5k more than the price of a several year old used one with 50-80k miles on it, I got new.

On average, diesel fuel (in the US) costs about 15-25% more than regular unleaded gasoline (the higher end of that range for colder climates where diesel competes with heating fuel stocks in the winter).    The TDI gets 30-40% better fuel economy in real world driving than the gas powered same model cars.    Fuel costs takes away about half this savings.    If the re-program drops the fuel economy even 10%, then, operating costs become real close to the being the same as the gas-powered equivalent.   At that point, there is no advantage to the diesel, and sometimes a disadvantage, as there are always some stations that don't sell diesel, and those that do, might only have it on one pump, resulting in sometimes a longer wait for a pump, when some inconsiderate person leaves their car at the pump to go inside and buy snacks, drinks, etc.

If I were to let them install the recall, and my fuel economy drops to a level were I lose the cost advantage, I would want at least $4k from VW to compensate me for the loss.  I would then sell both cars and switch makes.

The 2012 Jetta Sportwagon that my wife was driving was our first ever VW.     We got got my 2013 Golf (also a TDI) 1 1/2 years later.     Before that, I was a loyal BMW customer for 12 years.     After this, I can say that I likely won't be buying another VW product.    I might go back to buying used BMW's, or maybe go Ford or Jap INC.   It all depends on who makes a car I like with a manual transmission (which, of course, gets harder as each year goes by).

[jas67]

The ones that escape having to be reflashed (if the reflash makes such a big difference in economy) might become more desired/more expensive.

Of course, if the whole US diesel market (which was just  beginning to grow) takes a hit, then it could be bad overall.

Mark my word, this will kill it.

I'll bet that VW stops selling the TDI here altogether.   
They've already got one hybrid (Jetta Hybrid), and are about to introduce the Golf E all-electric to our market.  Those will be their high-efficiency offerings form now on, just like all the other makes.

Our gov't strongly favors hyrids and electrics over diesel.   This is the final nail in the coffin of diesel passenger vehicles in the US.
After this, diesel is going to get another bad stigma among consumers.   No other automakers will bother to bring any other diesel passenger vehicles to our market.

[rocker59]

If I were to let them install the recall, and my fuel economy drops to a level were I lose the cost advantage, I would want at least $4k from VW to compensate me for the loss.  I would then sell both cars and switch makes.

The 2012 Jetta Sportwagon that my wife was driving was our first ever VW.     We got got my 2013 Golf (also a TDI) 1 1/2 years later.     Before that, I was a loyal BMW customer for 12 years.     After this, I can say that I likely won't be buying another VW product.    I might go back to buying used BMW's, or maybe go Ford or Jap INC.   It all depends on who makes a car I like with a manual transmission (which, of course, gets harder as each year goes by).

Why switch from VW if you like the cars?

How are you personally affected by this corporate level fiasco?

Your car is still the car you bought, is it not?

[AJ Huff]

Most, if not all, people who chose to purchase a VW Diesel made that choice based on fuel economy.   When I bought our two, I certainly did.    Prices on used ones were MUCH higher than same model and similarly optioned gas powered ones, that difference being actually MORE than additional cost of the diesel option on a NEW one, as much as $4-5k.     The used prices were so high that, at least for me, it didn't even make sense to buy used, as for less than $5k more than the price of a several year old used one with 50-80k miles on it, I got new.

On average, diesel fuel (in the US) costs about 15-25% more than regular unleaded gasoline (the higher end of that range for colder climates where diesel competes with heating fuel stocks in the winter).    The TDI gets 30-40% better fuel economy in real world driving than the gas powered same model cars.    Fuel costs takes away about half this savings.    If the re-program drops the fuel economy even 10%, then, operating costs become real close to the being the same as the gas-powered equivalent.   At that point, there is no advantage to the diesel, and sometimes a disadvantage, as there are always some stations that don't sell diesel, and those that do, might only have it on one pump, resulting in sometimes a longer wait for a pump, when some inconsiderate person leaves their car at the pump to go inside and buy snacks, drinks, etc.

If I were to let them install the recall, and my fuel economy drops to a level were I lose the cost advantage, I would want at least $4k from VW to compensate me for the loss.  I would then sell both cars and switch makes.

The 2012 Jetta Sportwagon that my wife was driving was our first ever VW.     We got got my 2013 Golf (also a TDI) 1 1/2 years later.     Before that, I was a loyal BMW customer for 12 years.     After this, I can say that I likely won't be buying another VW product.    I might go back to buying used BMW's, or maybe go Ford or Jap INC.   It all depends on who makes a car I like with a manual transmission (which, of course, gets harder as each year goes by).

Go back to the top where I state I OWN a 2009 Jetta TDI. I'm not as ignorant as your preaching might indicate.

[AJ Huff]

Why switch from VW if you like the cars?

How are you personally affected by this corporate level fiasco?

Your car is still the car you bought, is it not?

My feelings exactly!

[Kev m]

Why switch from VW if you like the cars?

How are you personally affected by this corporate level fiasco?

Your car is still the car you bought, is it not?

Well, right now there aren't state required tail-pipe sniffs. But if there are. Or if he has to return to the dealer for warranty work. Or the reflash is somehow otherwise mandated and he loses his fuel economy, then he's personally effected.

Either way he's personally effected if the value of the vehicles plummet and he ever wants to get out from under them.

Go back to the top where I state I OWN a 2009 Jetta TDI. I'm not as ignorant as your preaching might indicate.

If I know Jay, he's not preaching, he's venting.

[Lannis]

Mark my word, this will kill it.

I'll bet that VW stops selling the TDI here altogether.   
They've already got one hybrid (Jetta Hybrid), and are about to introduce the Golf E all-electric to our market.  Those will be their high-efficiency offerings form now on, just like all the other makes.

Our gov't strongly favors hyrids and electrics over diesel.   This is the final nail in the coffin of diesel passenger vehicles in the US.
After this, diesel is going to get another bad stigma among consumers.   No other automakers will bother to bring any other diesel passenger vehicles to our market.

I disagree somewhat.    Diesel has been off to a rough 30-year start in the USA, for two reasons:

1) People always associated diesels with large trucks, and economy figures don't matter to people paying $2.00 a gallon for fuel.

2) GM screwed the pooch in the early 80's with their 350 ci small block diesel "conversions" that all blew sky high.

And I doubt if most people (aside from us motorheads) will know or care anything about VWs corporate hijinks when they go to buy a car.

In Europe, you can buy a small diesel car that will get 65 MPG and perform very well.   The ONLY reason those don't sell here is because automotive fuel is still so dirt-cheap here, and people have so much disposable income, that it's nothing to them to spend $50K on a huge pickup or SUV that gets 20 MPG and use it to take the kids to elementary school (passing the school bus on the way).

If that ever changes, diesels are going to be the way to go ....

BUT!  Time Will Tell, all we can do here is present the argument, sit back, and watch history unfold .....

Lannis

[jas67]

Why switch from VW if you like the cars?

How are you personally affected by this corporate level fiasco?

Your car is still the car you bought, is it not?

If the car no longer performs as was sold to me, then, not, it is no longer the car that I bought.   If it because more expensive to operate (MPG drop due to the recall "fix"), then, the premium that I paid to get a more efficient car is money wasted.   That is something that I deserve to be compensated for.

I might not switch cars immediately, but, will be less likely to give VW my business again in the future.

Time will tell.   Maybe the EPA will require VW to install a "fix" that doesn't drop MPG.   That would likely be a urea injection system, which would be a huge expensive to VW, but, that isn't my problem.    If, in the end, the car still performs as it did when I bought it, both in terms of HP/torque, and also MPG, then, I'll be satisfied.

[jas67]

Go back to the top where I state I OWN a 2009 Jetta TDI. I'm not as ignorant as your preaching might indicate.

Preach?     

Where do you think that I indicate that you are ignorant?

[Lannis]

My experience is different.  On the internet, most of the spam email I get automatically goes into my trash file, never to be seen and I don't have to bother with it or manually sort it.  With paper mail, 80% or more of mine is "std rate", meaning spam, charity solicitations, ads, etc.  I do have to manually sort it, but anything that doesn't have first class postage goes directly into the recycle bin without even being opened.

Yep.  Come to think of it, spam has blossomed in all media.   My ISP does a great job of junking Email spam so I never see it, but it's still there, and we still spend a LOT on software to prevent our personal information being hacked or our systems just maliciously destroyed and vandalized .... I can still mail a check by just sticking it in my mailbox and having it handled like it was 50 years ago without fearing that someone will steal it.   I have to take WAY more precautions on line, lest someone steal my bank information, etc ....

Lannis

[jas67]

Well, right now there aren't state required tail-pipe sniffs. But if there are. Or if he has to return to the dealer for warranty work. Or the reflash is somehow otherwise mandated and he loses his fuel economy, then he's personally effected.

Either way he's personally effected if the value of the vehicles plummet and he ever wants to get out from under them.

Exactly.

It would be real easy for the update to be mandated.   The People's Republic of Kalifornia requires that all recalls be complied with in order for registration to be renewed.  Other states may also require this.   And, as all things emissions related go, as California goes, so go the other states eventually.

I might get away with not letting them reflash the car this year, or next, but, eventually, I might be forced to comply.  I typically keep my cars for 6-9 years.     It wouldn't surprise me that sometime during my ownership of the car that I'm forced to comply.

Even if I don't comply, if the public perception of the  the model TDIs that I have get no better fuel economy due to the recall, that will reduce the demand for them, and reduce the resale price.

Yes, Kev, I am venting.   I am pretty pissed (angry, not drunk for those tuning in from the UK, Australia, or NZ) about this.   

[LowRyter]

Why switch from VW if you like the cars?

How are you personally affected by this corporate level fiasco?

Your car is still the car you bought, is it not?

probably won't be the same car after the ECUs of all these cars get reprogrammed. 

I'll bet it will some type of mandatory regulation where they'll put a scarlet letter on those cars to make them street legal anywhere in the US.  Don't be surprised if the consumer will have no choice in the matter.

[blackcat]

Having test ridden a TDI Sportwagen I was very interested in the planned import of the VW Alltrack to give competition to the Subaru Outback. Can't imagine that is going to happen, at least in the form of a diesel or for that matter in the gas version either. Too bad.

In terms of resale value of the currently owned TDI's, I would do as I do with Guzzi's. Keep them as long as possible and you won't be so disappointed in the resale value.

[jas67]

I disagree somewhat.    Diesel has been off to a rough 30-year start in the USA, for two reasons:

1) People always associated diesels with large trucks, and economy figures don't matter to people paying $2.00 a gallon for fuel.

2) GM screwed the pooch in the early 80's with their 350 ci small block diesel "conversions" that all blew sky high.

Agreed.   BUT, diesels were starting to gain some acceptance, though, they were still pretty niche.

Hybrids are gaining acceptance a LOT more, and will soon dominate the passenger vehicle market in the US.   All electrics with take hold once the range issues are addressed and public fast charging is wide spread.

And I doubt if most people (aside from us motorheads) will know or care anything about VWs corporate hijinks when they go to buy a car.

In Europe, you can buy a small diesel car that will get 65 MPG and perform very well.   The ONLY reason those don't sell here is because automotive fuel is still so dirt-cheap here, and people have so much disposable income, that it's nothing to them to spend $50K on a huge pickup or SUV that gets 20 MPG and use it to take the kids to elementary school (passing the school bus on the way).

Yes, gas guzzlers still sell very well in the US, because, relative to the rest of the world, fuel is cheap.     But, hybrids are becoming quite common on the roads.    There are a LOT of hybrids other than the Prius and the Prius-looking Honda Insight.   You might not realize just how many are on the road.     Many people are making less real income than they did before the financial crisis, and taxes, fees, and other things keep going up.    Because of this, many Americans ARE becoming more cost conscious in their buying decisions.
 

If that ever changes, diesels are going to be the way to go ....

Diesels won't be the way to go in the US for passenger cars.   Hybrids have already won that war.    Diesels will become more prevalent in light trucks, where they need the power and torque for hauling and towing.    A hybrid might not have enough battery capacity to maintain speed with a heavy load up a long grade.

For the majority of US consumers, hybrids are just as good as diesels, if not better.    Most American drivers could  care less about a manual transmission, or even how fun a car is to drive.   For most, cars are just appliances.    Eventually, when autonomous self-driving cars are a reality, the vast texting masses will embrace them, while driving enthusiasts will loath the day they become mandatory.

[jas67]

In terms of resale value of the currently owned TDI's, I would do as I do with Guzzi's. Keep them as long as possible and you won't be so disappointed in the resale value.

That was my plan, but, it if they no longer performs as expected in terms of MPG or (power) performance, I'm no longer interested in keeping them, and will feel ripped off.

[jas67]

I still think something else is behind this.  Ferdinand Piech tried to oust Winterkorn earlier this month and failed.  I'm sure there are some "I told you so's" coming up at the board meeting today.  I think there is a Porsche-VW power struggle going on and Piech wants his company back.  These guys don't care about cars or customers.  They get paid no matter what.  It's about power.

I'm sure Piech has enough invested in stock options that he didn't have any desire in this going public and decimating the stock as it has.

UNLESS he had a lot of stock shorted.

[AJ Huff]

I disagree somewhat.    Diesel has been off to a rough 30-year start in the USA, for two reasons:

1) People always associated diesels with large trucks, and economy figures don't matter to people paying $2.00 a gallon for fuel.

2) GM screwed the pooch in the early 80's with their 350 ci small block diesel "conversions" that all blew sky high.

And I doubt if most people (aside from us motorheads) will know or care anything about VWs corporate hijinks when they go to buy a car.

In Europe, you can buy a small diesel car that will get 65 MPG and perform very well.   The ONLY reason those don't sell here is because automotive fuel is still so dirt-cheap here, and people have so much disposable income, that it's nothing to them to spend $50K on a huge pickup or SUV that gets 20 MPG and use it to take the kids to elementary school (passing the school bus on the way).

If that ever changes, diesels are going to be the way to go ....

BUT!  Time Will Tell, all we can do here is present the argument, sit back, and watch history unfold .....

Lannis

Agreed. Time is really the major factor.

Most of the billions VW is setting aside will most likely be to settle investor law suits. I think only a fraction will be for actually dealing with the problem, eventual fines and owner lawsuits. Strictly my opinion.

Keep in mind:
Ford Pinto (which begat the Escort which begat the Focus) lawsuits and recalls, people kept buying.
Massive Toyota recall just a few years ago, people keep buying.
Massive GM recalls currently, people keep buying.
Ford rollover recalls, people kept buying.

And those were just a few huge SAFETY recalls. This is an EPA issue, much less tooth.

So we will see. I think it's way, way to early to say the sky is falling. In the meantime, I'm just going to keep driving, keep enjoying that I can still drive 500 miles on one tank, and enjoy the thrill that diesel is a dollar less than it was when I bought my car and now less than premium where I live. 

-AJ

[jas67]

And those were just a few huge SAFETY recalls. This is an EPA issue, much less tooth.

This was DELIBERATE, and will haunt the public perception and trust of the company for a long time.

So we will see. I think it's way, way to early to say the sky is falling. In the meantime, I'm just going to keep driving, keep enjoying that I can still drive 500 miles on one tank, and enjoy the thrill that diesel is a dollar less than it was when I bought my car and now less than premium where I live. 

-AJ

Yes, as you an Lannis have both said, time will tell.    It is way too early to say what is going to happen.   Yes, I too will keep enjoying and driving my cars.    As I stated above, hopefully, the EPA will mandate that VW's update NOT affect fuel real economy and that they install urea injection, or at least that VW is forced to compensate owners in real dollars the real loss of value of the vehicles in terms of true operating costs.

In the meantime, I'll just ride more!   

[AJ Huff]

You guys are already aware that there is a custom ECU/tuning industry for TDIs? You can already change this stuff aftermarket. That industry should see market growth. Of course it comes with the same "illegal to modify emissions, off road use only" caveats, but then how many threads are on here about reflashing Guzzi ECUs?

-AJ

[LowRyter]

I think there is a big difference AJ.  The niche for VW is the environmentally conscious and savvy consumer.   

I won't say the VW is ruined but this a huge hit.  It's really a betrayal and makes those environmentally conscious and savvy consumers look gullible.  That's unforgivable for people that like to feel that they are smarter and better informed.  It's like being a banker and falling for a Ponzi scam.

[AJ Huff]

I think there is a big difference AJ.  The niche for VW is the environmentally conscious and savvy consumer.   

I won't say the VW is ruined but this a huge hit.  It's really a betrayal and makes those environmentally conscious and savvy consumers look gullible.  That's unforgivable for people that like to feel that they are smarter and better informed.  It's like being a banker and falling for a Ponzi scam.

We'll see. I can envision EPA reset packages sold on eBay. Craiglist ads "listing non-EPA TDI" and commanding a higher price, etc.

-AJ

[Penderic]

This article is up at http://justacarguy.blogspot.ca/2015/09/fast-indepth-look-at-vw-smog-cheat-news.html

Billions! How much is that?

 

[Randown]

Quote from: jas67 on Today at 06:19:42 AM
This was DELIBERATE, and will haunt the public perception and trust of the company for a long time.

Maybe.  Maybe not.  VW fooled the government/EPA.  Many of us would like to do the same (and not get caught).

Did they not lie to consumers as well? Was not performance / mileage supposed to be ICW gov regs?

[tiger_one]

Yep, if I had the TDI VW, I would be smiling.  No reflash needed, already got the best ECU map available.  Recall, no thanks.

[tiger_one]

This article is up at http://justacarguy.blogspot.ca/2015/09/fast-indepth-look-at-vw-smog-cheat-news.html

Billions! How much is that?

 

I was expecting a picture!   

[canuguzzi]

More than a few people these days get more upset about environmental issues than safety issues. They see them much the same correlating damage to the environment to their personal well being and this safety.

Children in school are being taught that environmental concerns are more important than many other things and this is already evident in the current generation of car shoppers. There is also a pretty big difference between how people think of this when comparing those in say California vs states like Texas.

When cars like the Pinto were involved in safety issues, the car market wasn't nearly as globalized as it is now and the fines weren't in the billions either.

VW might be in for a hard road.

The new buyers of the brand aren't the same as the loyalists of yesteryear who still drive the old VW bus with no heater and one windshield wiper. Some of the VW owners here will stand by VW but then they own Moto Guzzis too. A different mindset than the typical consumer.