Another downturn in motorcye sales?

[canuguzzi]

Hope this doesn't turn political, not the intent.

The economy might be headed for another downturn if the market continues its slide. Its starting to look ugly. Ugly would be HDs chart (HOG). B7t that is all market stuff.

How do you see bike sales fairing this year. Heavy discounts are everywhere so while we see the now typical inventory clearances at MG, its also hitting other brands just as strong. Good for buyers.

Are we headed for another bike sales slowdown of sizable proportions?

[cloudbase]

It's already slowed down considerably in Houston.  Given the massive layoffs in the oil patch and the cascade effect of those layoffs, there's just not as much discretionary income available.

[rob-mg]

Hope this doesn't turn political, not the intent.

The economy might be headed for another downturn if the market continues its slide. Its starting to look ugly. Ugly would be HDs chart (HOG). B7t that is all market stuff.

How do you see bike sales fairing this year. Heavy discounts are everywhere so while we see the now typical inventory clearances at MG, its also hitting other brands just as strong. Good for buyers.

Are we headed for another bike sales slowdown of sizable proportions?

I think that it is interesting that Piaggio opened a "flagship store" in Manhattan a few months ago, but I'm not sure what the point is. The floor space is less than half the space at Brooklyn Vespa, and my expectation to see a lot more in terms of accessories just didn't happen. Not sure what the point is of this store.

When I asked whether Moto Guzzi would provide a centre stand or engine guard for the V7 II, this Piaggio owned store told me a week later that it couldn't get an answer from its own corporate retail operation.

[canuguzzi]

It could be that MG is waiting to see how well the new models are received by the US market.

I read some of Piaggio s financials and noted that they specifically call out the liabilities for sales, especially the US market. If I remember correctly they were referring to service/warranty liabilities. It makes sense since the US market isn't their biggest money market but consumer protections are skewed much more in favor of the consumer so the per unit risks would be higher.

March is new model release time for many brands, it could be they are waiting for that.

HD runs TV ads and their new ads focus on price, the less than 10 grand models.

[RayB]

I care less about MC sales will decline and more about the economy in general. And you thought the 2008 recession was bad?

[rob-mg]

If you transfer current Moto Guzzi prices in Euros into other currencies, ex-VAT, the numbers are in some cases very interesting, and in some cases the difference between countries geographically close is also interesting.

[canuguzzi]

Lots of people sell their toys when money gets tight or they are concerned about jobs and income. CL ads start showing up for really nice bikes, nearly new and also sought after older models. Good if you have some handy cash to pick something up.

[timonbik]

I see the sales decline as more of a problem with young people not being interested.  Lets face it, the "Millenials" would rather spend $1000 on a Smart phone and play video games than go for a motorcycle ride.  Cars are merely an appliance, like a toaster for them. Turn the key and go. Motorcycles don't keep you warm and dry and insurance is expensive and it is a PIA answering texts while riding.  Go to a car or MC show and look at the audience.  Chances are the average age is 50 plus.  Same problem with tall the toy type sports like boats, planes etc.  Diminishing market due to lack of interest.  Plan on keeping your toys because there won't be many prospective buyers in the future.

[jas67]

I've got several bikes that I plan on selling in the spring, and yes, I'm a little worried that the current market conditions will limit what I can get for them.

But, on the flip side, the same slow motorcycle market is partially responsible for the great deal that I got on my V7 Special in November.

[canuguzzi]

Dang, lots of cult bikes showing up like Honda Hawks (late 80s), 3 V65s, a long list of Moto Guzzis, lots of toys hitting the market out here.

Sure not the usual.

[Green1000S]

KTM seems to be doing well... Or at least certain models.
I'm looking to get a Duke 390, cannot locate a single one and no discounts of any type or KTM provided financing with good terms.
But in general, last time economy shit-tanked, many dealers and brands were struggling...
And my 401K seems to start with a new, lower number...

[Two Checks]

Another downturn? More l8ike a deeper downturn than what we've had. Lots of toys for sale these days and they aren't selling very fast.

[Murray]

I have it on good authority that not only Moto Guzzi , but the MoCo , and BMW are closing their doors next month ...

 Dusty

Snow is pretty high out the front at the moment?

[lucydad]

Worst oil crash ever.  Enough said.  I am sniffing the air for a distress sale of a very nice Porsche somewhere in Houston.

[thepittsburghguzzi]

Timonbik,
You bring up a very good point here, but as a 24 year old, I would like to say that I am witnessing a pretty huge surge in appreciation among people my age for true vintage bikes. I live in a small part of Pittsburgh with hipsters on every block, and they and all their friends are starting off on tiny 49cc motorbikes that they found on CL for next to nothing. After a while, they trade up to an three-decades old Honda or Kawasaki (like me). And then their friends with skilled hands, perhaps some are good at welding, some are good at painting, some just like making things go fast, start tinkering with the bikes and turn them into something retro-cool. I believe the "motorcycle economy", in reference to new motorcycle sales is an entirely different world from used and true vintage sales, and I believe my town is a snapshot of the bigger picture: SOME people my age really are falling in love with the whole thing. Finding old bikes in barns, on CL, eBay, etc. We can't afford new bikes, so we're not able to support the new motorcycle economy.
You describe a millennial very accurately - desensitized and numb, glued to their smartphones, a car is just an appliance. But trust me, not all of us are like this. Some of us appreciate how a motorcycle moves the soul. The authenticity of it. We will be around to buy, sell, and trade in the vintage market for the rest of our lives.
New motorcycles won't move quickly, and most of the manufacturers will have to scramble to save dollars. But the vintage market is alive and will continue to do well, thanks in part to millennials like me :)

I see the sales decline as more of a problem with young people not being interested.  Lets face it, the "Millenials" would rather spend $1000 on a Smart phone and play video games than go for a motorcycle ride.  Cars are merely an appliance, like a toaster for them. Turn the key and go. Motorcycles don't keep you warm and dry and insurance is expensive and it is a PIA answering texts while riding.  Go to a car or MC show and look at the audience.  Chances are the average age is 50 plus.  Same problem with tall the toy type sports like boats, planes etc.  Diminishing market due to lack of interest.  Plan on keeping your toys because there won't be many prospective buyers in the future.

[vstevens]

My kids are millenials.  Of the four, only my two youngest daughters (20 and 26) have any real interest in two wheeled transport.  The 26 year old loves the V7 and will 'inherit' it sometime soon (maybe I'll take a hard look at the Griso).  The youngest remembers the old Vespa I took her to school on and remembers the feeling of flying... She often talks about riding her own. The oldest two are less interested and wrapped up in being parents and working people.  My 30 year old son loves the look of the V7 and fell in lust when I showed him a youtube video of a Griso... but his wife would never go for it! lol

All of them drive old Japanese beater economy cars... cars just don't interest them. 

I drive a Fiat 500, used to have an old Porsche 944 (loved that car), had a trans am, a Saab 900 and other interesting cars in the past... seemed I was always "car-poor" making a payment on something or another.  If money was no object, I'd drive an Alpha Romeo 4C... on the weekends. 

I do worry that the economy will make it harder for them to find a niche, to make enough money to be comfortable and secure.  Funny, they don't seem to be as worried.  They have all graduated from college (except the youngest who is in her third year)... but that isn't a guarantee either, these days.  But Maybe ups your chances in a changing world. 

[George_S]

I see the sales decline as more of a problem with young people not being interested.  Lets face it, the "Millenials" would rather spend $1000 on a Smart phone and play video games than go for a motorcycle ride.  Cars are merely an appliance, like a toaster for them. Turn the key and go. Motorcycles don't keep you warm and dry and insurance is expensive and it is a PIA answering texts while riding.  Go to a car or MC show and look at the audience.  Chances are the average age is 50 plus.  Same problem with tall the toy type sports like boats, planes etc.  Diminishing market due to lack of interest.  Plan on keeping your toys because there won't be many prospective buyers in the future.

I agree and carry that a bit further. Millenials desire to live in the big cities, close to work. There's a big renaissance of cities here in the East. They don't even want to own a car, they are happy to take public transportation ( subways, taxis and Uber) when they need to. I don't fault them for their $1000 phones, they are both a work and a personal tool for them. They'll be more likely to just own a bike than a car or motorcycle. Just look at Toyota's decision the other day to pull the plug on the Scion brand. They cited these very trends as a main reason.

[JeffOlson]

The sky is always falling, and the economy always goes up and down. What expert economists have concluded that the economy and/or motorcycles sales are tanking?

[rocker59]

I see the sales decline as more of a problem with young people not being interested.  Lets face it, the "Millenials" would rather spend $1000 on a Smart phone and play video games than go for a motorcycle ride.  Cars are merely an appliance, like a toaster for them. Turn the key and go. Motorcycles don't keep you warm and dry and insurance is expensive and it is a PIA answering texts while riding.  Go to a car or MC show and look at the audience.  Chances are the average age is 50 plus.  Same problem with all the toy type sports like boats, planes etc.  Diminishing market due to lack of interest.  Plan on keeping your toys because there won't be many prospective buyers in the future.

 :1:

[Wayne Orwig]

I see the sales decline as more of a problem with young people not being interested.  Lets face it, the "Millenials" would rather spend $1000 on a Smart phone and play video games than go for a motorcycle ride.  Cars are merely an appliance, like a toaster for them.

And they buy front wheel drive cars and think they handle.

[Jerryd]

The sky is always falling, and the economy always goes up and down. What expert economists have concluded that the economy and/or motorcycles sales are tanking?

Thanks for some common sense Jeff!

[timonbik]

Just drive by a local high school and see how many MC's are parked in the student parking area.  When I was in highschool in the 60's and 70's there would be in in excess of 20 bikes.  Today, same school. None.
Parents drive their kid everywhere.  Family's have 2 or more cars.  When I was growing up, one car and dad had it at work.  Man, the memory of freedom and independence when I bought that CB175 Honda for $300 in 1971.  Today, they would rather call UBER to get somewhere.  Yes, there are exceptions to every trend but overall I think todays youth couldn't give a care about bikes.

[JeffOlson]

Just drive by a local high school and see how many MC's are parked in the student parking area. When I was in highschool in the 60's and 70's there would be in in excess of 20 bikes. Today, same school. None...

This could be a sign of affluence, not falling motorcycle sales.

All four of my sons drove (used) BMWs when they were growing up...

[Curtis Harper]

Not trying to turn to a political side either, but every election year things slow down in the toy market. And when things are as unsure as they are now, it will be more pronounced. However generally about June or so, the general public gets tired of hearing all the negativity and everyone wants to go for a ride. Is this go round worse than others ? Maybe. Maybe not. I remember years where as a company total in the US, Guzzi sold less than 25 bikes.

[Vince in Milwaukee]

Looks like the stars and planets may be aligned for me for a change.  I'm in the market for a new or newer bike (it's been over 20 years since I purchased a 94 K75RT new).  I've also been at my commissary job for 2.5 years now and have all of my retirement money safely put in government bonds in Uncle Sam's Thrift Savings Plan.  Maybe it's time to pull the trigger as I'm not getting any younger.     

[canuck750]

$28 a barrel oil is having a serious impact on the economy here not to mention the impact on all the oil producing and oil service companies. I can't see toy sales being very strong for quite some time.

[oldbike54]

Snow is pretty high out the front at the moment?

 I read it on the internet , must be true , right ?

 

The sky is always falling, and the economy always goes up and down. What expert economists have concluded that the economy and/or motorcycles sales are tanking?

 This  :1: The oil business is tanking , which is no doubt affecting the market , but cheap gas leaved more disposable income for many of us .

 Dusty

[rocker59]

This could be a sign of affluence, not falling motorcycle sales.

All four of my sons drove (used) BMWs when they were growing up...

I had a new Silverado and a new Honda 650 when I was 16 years old.

I rode the bike to school, whenever I had the chance.

Not saying I was "Affluent", but I had a choice.

Motorcycles in The USA haven't been a "have to" thing since the days when Ford's Model T MSRP was reduced to $295.

If you had the ability to buy your kids (used) BMW autos, they could've also had motorcycles.

But they didn't.

[rocker59]

$28 a barrel oil is having a serious impact on the economy here not to mention the impact on all the oil producing and oil service companies. I can't see toy sales being very strong for quite some time.

Sure, a few people in a few regions are being negatively impacted by the low oil prices.  However, most people benefit from low oil and gasoline prices, and end up with more money in their pocket.

Right now it's costing me about $37 to fill up my Suburban.  At the peak a few years ago, I had a few $100 fill-ups.

That $63 savings per fill-up is money in my pocket that I can spend on other things, helping other parts of the economy.

There is no oil industry within 100+ miles of me, so no one here has been negatively affected by the collapse of oil prices, but we've all benefitted from the savings that cheaper gasoline prices have given us.  Which will improve our economy by allowing dollars to flow to someone besides Exxon/Mobil, Conocco/Phillips, and Shell...

[rocker59]

Not trying to turn to a political side either, but every election year things slow down in the toy market. And when things are as unsure as they are now, it will be more pronounced. However generally about June or so, the general public gets tired of hearing all the negativity and everyone wants to go for a ride. Is this go round worse than others ? Maybe. Maybe not. I remember years where as a company total in the US, Guzzi sold less than 25 bikes.

I agree.  Short-term.  A natural slow-down in an election year.  People are unsure every four years and curtail spending.  After the election, people will rise and see the sky has not fallen, and they'll be looser with their checkbooks.

Long-term?  I think that long-term, recreational motorsports will suffer as the baby-boomers age out.  Boats, RVs, Quads, Motorcycles, etc.  It has been the baby-boomers who have driven the RV market, and the generations behind them just don't spend as much on toys.