Author Topic: Future classics  (Read 1387 times)

Offline reidy

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Future classics
« on: December 08, 2018, 07:06:20 PM »
There has been a few posts about how much some older bikes including Guzzi's are selling for. This question is what are your predictions for future classics for the bikes that are say 5 to 10 years old now.

Some here would remember when bikes like the CB 750 or Kawaka Z9 changed the face of motorcycling. I remember the GPZ900 as one of the first water cooled Japanese bikes that so many have followed on from. I can't remember the last time I saw a nice GPZ900 on the road or one advertised. I am sure these have a following but not like I would have expected.

I have been giving this some thought and can't pick any bikes of late that seem destine to become the Vincent, 750 Ducati or V7 Guzzi sport from this generation. I am sure there will be a few ultra rare bikes that are highly collectible. I am thinking more mainstream stuff. It may be a Harley but with so many in circulation I can't see a point where demand will outstrip supply and push prices up.   

So what are your thoughts? 

Steve

Online Aaron D.

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #1 on: December 08, 2018, 07:09:45 PM »
Really can't tell. But look for desirable and attractive and you won't go wrong.


Offline reidy

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #2 on: December 08, 2018, 07:56:34 PM »
I am not asking with the intention to purchase a shed full of classics or even one as it is a tough way to make money in my opinion. For example Australian Superannuation has averaged something like 7.2% increase per year over the last 30 years. That works out that your money doubles ever 10 years.

If I had of purchase a good but not perfect GPZ900 in 1988 I would have paid about $3500. In fact I did but it is long gone. To keep up with Super it would had to have been worth $7000 in 98, $14 000 in 2008 and $28 000 this year just to break even if I didn't have any storage costs, no maintenance, didn't insure or register it and could find a buyer for a bike that had not been started in 30 years.   

If I had of had exceptionally good taste and purchased the right bike in 88, used it and maintained it and still enjoyed it now I could argue that I would be in front financially, maybe. The question is more to find out what people think are the collectibles.

Steve

 

Offline Tusayan

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #3 on: December 08, 2018, 07:56:58 PM »
The classic car era extends only through the early 70s then ends abruptly due to regulations from that time and their impact on low volume models and producers.  The same thing is happening with motorcycles, delayed to maybe pre model year 2000.  Some stuff from the 90s will become collectable, Italian and some Japanese bikes reflecting the existing pattern.  Very little after the very early 2000s will ever be collectible in my judgement.

Now is the time to buy Italian sport bikes of the 90s.
« Last Edit: December 08, 2018, 07:58:03 PM by Tusayan »

Online jas67

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #4 on: December 08, 2018, 08:01:08 PM »
The mid 2000's Ducati Sport Classics, 1000GT, 1000 Sport, and esp. the Paul Smart 1000LE are all already collectable, just look at the prices.

It is possible some Buell models might become collectables as well.

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #5 on: December 08, 2018, 08:05:47 PM »
 Maybe the last Buells , or the EBR sportbike , the 1000 GTS Yamaha , and possibly some of those exotic limited production Italian off road gp bikes . The name escapes me at the moment .

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Online gliderjohn

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #6 on: December 08, 2018, 08:15:57 PM »
Of late models, Motus? A bit older, Honda GB500.
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Offline Bulldog9

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #7 on: December 08, 2018, 08:21:53 PM »
We can always hope............... . I hope my xs1100 and 750 become classics and collectible, but not yet..... Maybe the Griso?  Stornello? ;-) Even my 912E?  But hey, I'm cheap and poorish so never really have/had the chance to get into a 'collectible' category....... I buy and keep what I like and can afford and LOVE the crap out of/care for what I am fortunate to have....
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Re: Future classics
« Reply #8 on: December 08, 2018, 08:56:37 PM »
The same skills and intuition that would allow one to predict which motorcycles would be "classics" in the future would also allow one to predict what companies have share prices that are going to triple or quadruple in the next few years.

Lemme know if you figure out the secret ... !!!

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Offline Bob Wegman

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #9 on: December 08, 2018, 09:41:23 PM »
I kind of like when they aren't too valuable because you don't have to worry much about theft. 
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Online Kev m

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #10 on: December 08, 2018, 10:47:53 PM »
The classic car era extends only through the early 70s then ends abruptly due to regulations from that time and their impact on low volume models and producers.  The same thing is happening with motorcycles, delayed to maybe pre model year 2000.  Some stuff from the 90s will become collectable, Italian and some Japanese bikes reflecting the existing pattern.  Very little after the very early 2000s will ever be collectible in my judgement.

Now is the time to buy Italian sport bikes of the 90s.

I think that's very bad comparison.

What killed the immediate post 70 classic car market was a sudden neutering of performance. That cant be said of the late model bike evolution
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Re: Future classics
« Reply #11 on: December 08, 2018, 11:04:41 PM »
The V11 Sport Greenie is on my list. And a Buell should be there.
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Online jas67

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #12 on: December 09, 2018, 01:02:13 AM »
I think that's very bad comparison.

What killed the immediate post 70 classic car market was a sudden neutering of performance. That cant be said of the late model bike evolution

Well, yes and no.   IMHO, at least in the case of American cars, the styling of post 1970 classic cars got worse, especially the extremely boxy 1980's.
So, it wasn't just the performance, but, the styling.   By the mid-90's performance was back, and now, crazy amounts of performance are available, 500-700 HP available in modern day muscle cars.   Heck, even your typical V6 family sedan is quicker than the the typical 1960's or 1970's muscle cars.

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Offline fossil

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #13 on: December 09, 2018, 01:34:47 AM »
Future classic? Well, what about the Himalayan? And, as it somehow follows in itīt tracks, but promises to be more versatile, the V85 TT?
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Online JohninVT

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #14 on: December 09, 2018, 07:24:39 AM »
First gen 900SS are very undervalued.  They trade at 3-4K for very nice examples.  I think that will double in the next decade.

Online s1120

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #15 on: December 09, 2018, 07:39:40 AM »
First gen 900SS are very undervalued.  They trade at 3-4K for very nice examples.  I think that will double in the next decade.

I agree with that. As there gets less and less of them, and tastes change back to a more simple early sportbike style..  Your already seeing the fist gen GSXR750, and 1100 getting up there in price. As far as guzzi..  the easy pick in a more modern, after the 70's era would be the 1000S...  its already getting up there, and I dont see a end to it... Will it surpass the first gen LM and V7 sport?... time will tell.. 
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Offline rider33

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #16 on: December 09, 2018, 07:43:18 AM »
I think design and rarity has something to do with it.  I sold my W650 with 15,000 miles on it for not a lot less than what I paid for it new.  It was a one of the first classic retro designs relanched with only 2000 brought into the states.  Prices on them have held up remarkable well for a 17-18 year old mid size Japanese standard.  It will be interesting to see what impact if any the W800 will have on that.  I do think some of the Buell's will be quite collectible and believe it or not, some of the new V7's as well- they are just too distinctive and still fairly uncommon. Of them,  I think the V7/50 stands a pretty good chance, then again I might be a bit biased:
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Offline sdcr

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #17 on: December 09, 2018, 08:19:24 AM »
I thought the original poster was looking at the period just past the century mark, say 2001 -20013 in that period I would suggest the MV Agusta F4, the Ducati Paul Smart edition and the Griso green edition( not sure if the last one was a limited model)
Extendeing that period to 20-25 years, I would include the Ducati 900 Superlight, and to some extent the numbered 900 SS/SP, as well as the 916.
kawasaki W650, so e of the Buells, the last BMW airhead models Honda GB500. Those are my crystal ball picks.
Now if my crystal ball would just give me tomorrow's lottery numbers, I can buy them all!
 
First gen 900SS are very undervalued.  They trade at 3-4K for very nice examples.  I think that will double in the next decade.
John

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Online Kev m

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #18 on: December 09, 2018, 08:34:27 AM »
Well, yes and no.   IMHO, at least in the case of American cars, the styling of post 1970 classic cars got worse, especially the extremely boxy 1980's.
So, it wasn't just the performance, but, the styling.   By the mid-90's performance was back, and now, crazy amounts of performance are available, 500-700 HP available in modern day muscle cars.   Heck, even your typical V6 family sedan is quicker than the the typical 1960's or 1970's muscle cars.

Styling is subjective, but I'd generally agree with you that it also contributed.

I'll add that I think the return and then leaps forward in performance probably means we are seeing future classic cars again, but we're too close to "see" it.

Either way the comparison still doesn't hold.
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Offline Bill E.

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #19 on: December 09, 2018, 08:39:41 AM »
 Maybe the MGS-01.

Online GearheadGrrrl

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #20 on: December 09, 2018, 08:41:14 AM »
Collectors tend to be guys in their 60s buying up the cars they coveted but couldn't afford a half century ago when they were teenagers- Thus the baby boom generation is driving the price appreciation of 60s cars. So what motorcycles are the current baby boomers, millennials, coveting? Most of them see cars as an evil necessity at best, and the few who covet them seem to be into hot hatches like the Focus RS, Golf R, and Suburu WRX. Motorcycles aren't even on their radar...
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Online blackcat

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #21 on: December 09, 2018, 08:50:48 AM »
Maybe the MGS-01.

They already are, if you purchased one new for $24K they are now worth north of $50K.

Offline harrytief

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #22 on: December 09, 2018, 08:57:01 AM »
Ghr
Exactly!

Online jas67

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #23 on: December 09, 2018, 08:59:01 AM »
I'll add some more to the list:

Ducati 900SS Final Edition
Ducati Supermono (already is)
Ducati Desmosedici
Ducati 1299 Superleggera
Ducati 848 Nicky Hayden Special Edition
Honda RC51 Nicky Hayden Special Edition
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Online s1120

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #24 on: December 09, 2018, 09:03:35 AM »
Collectors tend to be guys in their 60s buying up the cars they coveted but couldn't afford a half century ago when they were teenagers- Thus the baby boom generation is driving the price appreciation of 60s cars. So what motorcycles are the current baby boomers, millennials, coveting? Most of them see cars as an evil necessity at best, and the few who covet them seem to be into hot hatches like the Focus RS, Golf R, and Suburu WRX. Motorcycles aren't even on their radar...

I think your post touches of a good point... People tend to want what they had, or wanted in their youth...  that car[or bike] that your friends cool brother had... What the guy down the street had.... what used to rip by your house when you were a 12yo standing in your driveway... 
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Offline Tusayan

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #25 on: December 09, 2018, 09:47:10 AM »
The mid 2000's Ducati Sport Classics, 1000GT, 1000 Sport, and esp. the Paul Smart 1000LE are all already collectable, just look at the prices.

It is possible some Buell models might become collectables as well.

I think the 'Sport Classics' have held their value because they are replicas of 1970s Ducatis that most buyers can no longer afford.  I don't see being a replica of a classic bike as a strong basis for long term classic status for these bikes themselves.

I agree about Buells, they have the making of being traded as a classic and it's too bad that they are gone.  At the time they were being made they were to me the most attractive new bikes available, but I was too busy buying and keeping older Italian bikes to get one. 

1990s Ducatis and Guzzi sport bikes remain the most promising bikes to buy now for long term value, IMO.  Some Japanese sport bikes (for example the last two strokes) fall in the same category.

« Last Edit: December 09, 2018, 09:50:33 AM by Tusayan »

Online jas67

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #26 on: December 09, 2018, 10:41:56 AM »
Some Japanese sport bikes (for example the last two strokes) fall in the same category.

Then add the Aprilia RS125 and RS250.
2017 V7III Special, 2013 V7 Racer
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1974 Eldorado  :grin:
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Offline oilhed

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #27 on: December 09, 2018, 10:45:08 AM »
I think design and rarity has something to do with it.  I sold my W650 with 15,000 miles on it for not a lot less than what I paid for it new.  It was a one of the first classic retro designs relanched with only 2000 brought into the states.  Prices on them have held up remarkable well for a 17-18 year old mid size Japanese standard.  It will be interesting to see what impact if any the W800 will have on that.  I do think some of the Buell's will be quite collectible and believe it or not, some of the new V7's as well- they are just too distinctive and still fairly uncommon. Of them,  I think the V7/50 stands a pretty good chance, then again I might be a bit biased:
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Offline huub

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Re: Future classics
« Reply #28 on: December 09, 2018, 11:15:26 AM »
interesting question , in 10-5 years from now: in no particular order,
the 750 paso, ( because it stands out)
the first generation MV agusta F4, especially the special editions,
over here a ducati 999 is now worth as much as the 916, i can see the being more sought after. ( due to small numbers produced)
the ducati 888, but that is probably already a collectible by now
probably the first generation supercharged kawasaki's, but to be honest, i have no clue what the japanese factories turn out nowadays.


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Re: Future classics
« Reply #29 on: December 09, 2018, 11:54:07 AM »
Ducati Desmosedici...
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